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We’ve already signed away our freedoms, albeit temporarily, to combat a virus. Amazing how,
seemingly, easy it has been for us to discard our civil liberties over this.
Hmm For the common good, sacrificing a load of people so just not to inconvenience yourself seems a tad selfish.
Not easy but the right thing.
If I were to use an analogy using medieval instruments of torture, I’d wager that the thumbscrew on society have been thrown away and were now on the rack.
Yet, it appears that there are swathes of people who still must think this will be over by Whitsun Bank Holiday and everything will swing back to normal.
The increase in online sales is quite staggering, was all this money under mattresses? It certainly wasn’t in savings accounts. Well, I suppose we can rest easy knowing that despite the actuality of restricted liberties and the portent of death, the financiers and lenders are offering immediate credit card limit increases and preferential ‘corona’ interest rates for personal and business loans.
All for something that requires total faith and belief for it to be real. Along with the omnipotent human being, one of the greatest scams in, dare I say, human history.
was all this money under mattresses?
No, but a significant proportion of it would have been going into paying Childcare, after school clubs, holidays, kids at uni, commuting costs, etc. All of these are now gone. My now removed childcare costs are more than my (expensive) mortgage.
The increase in online sales is quite staggering, was all this money under mattresses?
I'd imagine it's the money that people aren't spending in town in clothes shops, restaurants, coffee shops, tourist attractions and the rest of the places that are closed.
Last year we worked out that we averaged £600 a month on eating out/going for drinks..... I'm a musician and my girlfriend is a wedding coordinator so business isn't exactly booming currently.... luckily the complete removal of our social life is mitigating a fair chunk of the losses!
Why not quote me in full, dudeofdoom?
Cherry picking that line to make me appear selfish and callous. I was a actually questioning what our lives would be like if a "recovered" UK, in any way, resembles China post (allegedly) coronavirus.
Anyone know why other countries are throwing resources at disinfecting roads? There was even a video on the the Beeb of street signs being scrubbed down in Italy! Surely there is very little chance of picking up the virus in this way?
Did I imagine a news report aboit potentially further restrictions being imposed, with further details to be mailed out to 33 million households?
Why mail? Especially now, this just seems to be another mode of transmission, plus adds a form of delay.
Is it just to prevent mis-reporting and misinterpretation by having one single, hard copy source?
If the letter is the one I saw on a reputable source (cant remember which, no reason to not believe it though) then theres no policy change. I think the letter can only be designed to provide less clarity and more confusion!!
Page 1 - heres a list of the things you're allow to do
Page 2 - heres some guidance on how to do some things not on page 1
Honestly you couldn't make this stuff up. We're all doomed.
Why not quote me in full, dudeofdoom?
Cherry picking that line to make me appear selfish and callous. I was a actually questioning what our lives would be like if a “recovered” UK, in any way, resembles China post (allegedly) coronavirus.
I quoted the bit that irked me most as I disagree that we easily gave up our rights.
I’m not concerned about point scoring what I’m concerned about is not holding our ‘lockdown’ for long enough to make a difference and banging on about people losing rights is only likely to stir things up.
If I’ve misinterpreted your post then I profoundly apologise 🙂
Always worrying when the people who actually know what is happening (as opposed to the average punters like us) start killing themselves.
"Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold"
Intestertingly the ‘scum’has an interesting opinion piece today.
Hysteria has forced the UK into lockdown, crashed the economy and will kill more than coronavirus
Only took one week of a semi lockdown and they’re banging on about getting people back to work just like Fox is in the US.
Morning folks, another day in the rabbit hole
Hopefully everyone is feeling fit and well or on the way back to health.
Looks like it might be big week. Think it's fair to say myself and my fellow deck chair arrangers are very grateful for the hard work being done by the key workers, volunteers and everyone else keeping this thing moving. Also thanks to the stats and science people for taking time out to give us some insights.
Take care, be kind, remember it's the little things that make a difference.
Intestertingly the ‘scum’has an interesting opinion piece today.
There's been a concerted push of that message through the usual suspects opion pieces this weekend. Latched on to the flawed 'Imperial study says only 5700 deaths!'. I have found it interesting how quickly it has found it's way back to here on the last few pages.
However, unlike Brexit, they won't be able to find a rogue economist who agrees with them:
https://twitter.com/JustinWolfers/status/1244294419492343808
Always worrying when the people who actually know what is happening (as opposed to the average punters like us) start killing themselves.
None of us have any idea about the poor mans state of being before Covid19 to attribute anything to anything.
One if my favourite son writers critical with corona. He embodies underlying health conditions too 🙁
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=5-zYNPdT1a4
edit...cant get it to post on phone
I give up 🤷♂️
Quick question for the science people:
If we have a lot of people indoors on Zwift, possibly getting regular power, cadence and HR data. Would you be able to pick up on infection trends? Would you notice a fitness change even if you didn't show any other symptoms?
Honestly you couldn’t make this stuff up. We’re all doomed.
Nah even with the incompetence the fact we’re not all wandering around infecting more people means we’re not.
Anyone know why other countries are throwing resources at disinfecting roads? There was even a video on the the Beeb of street signs being scrubbed down in Italy! Surely there is very little chance of picking up the virus in this way?
It’s morale boasting and is a visible sign that the gov is doing something and costs little but plays a big impact on people’s perception of what a government is doing for them.
Or they are worried that people may start licking them , never know what YouTube challenge may spring up 🙂
It’s a good thing.
Not getting excited yet but new cases down three days in a row according to worldometer.
Some positivity molgrips, let's hope so buddy. 🙏🏻
Dudeofdoom, agree, Italian government must be in a desperate place, anything that looks like they're doing something. 😔
Intestertingly the ‘scum’has an interesting opinion piece today.
This is worrying, given how blinkered and gullible their readers usually are
For posterity, the numbers given by the Korean doctor Kim Woo-Ju in the video:
Date - Mar 24th
8961 confirmed cases / 3166 recovered / 111 deaths
20% of cases asymptomatic
80-90 11.6% mortality
70-80 6.3%
60-70 1.5%
50-60 0.4%
40-50 0.1%
30-40 0.1%
S Korea are probably kings of testing right now so that asymptomatic figure has to be worth taking note of.
If we have a lot of people indoors on Zwift, possibly getting regular power, cadence and HR data. Would you be able to pick up on infection trends? Would you notice a fitness change even if you didn’t show any other symptoms?
Interesting line of thought there oap, my own anecdotal evidence(therefore worthless) of running a power meter on my commuter for yonks shows a drop in watts just prior to simple colds as if a battery had been taken out, a lack of oooompf before starting to show the symptoms.
yes, Italy are three weeks in, for my money at this moment in time, it looks like the halfway point of the 'total' lockdown measures. It's a hopeful sign.
@oldagedpredator - it's a bit too variable I think. Certainly being ill will affect your heart rate at a given power, but so will tiredness, stress and then there is the mismatch between power and heartrate over an interval (HR drift).
I think heart rate variabilty can identify such things better but I've not looke dinto that much
blinkered and gullible
You missed out thick, hypocritical, selfish, self righteous and xenophobic.
Anyone know why other countries are throwing resources at disinfecting roads?
I think when there's incoming fire and you can't see the enemy you tend to start firing at anything you can see.
Love the Ladybird take on it.
Intestertingly the ‘scum’has an interesting opinion piece today.
This is worrying, given how blinkered and gullible their readers usually are
Yep it’s why I’m grumpier than normal, it’s too early to be banging on about getting to normality in un-normal times.
The numbers should dictate when the new normal starts not public opinion.
Virus’s don’t give a shit about public opinion.
I wonder what the Scum will think about the prospect of another severe economic shock around the turn of the year.
You can definitely feel some influential media types getting upset about their investments, and clearly prepared to for the elderly and sick to lay themselves down and die to protect them.
The BBC is full-on 'state broadcaster in a time of war' mode this morning.
The roadsign thing - I wonder if they've had shitload of volunteers and want to give them something to do to a) look like they are appreciating the offers of help and b) make people feel like they are able to help. IIRC we had things like this during the war?
Nah even with the incompetence the fact we’re not all wandering around infecting more people means we’re not.
I was thinking of a more general sense that we'd got ourselves a govt. incapable of writing a consistent message between the front and back of a piece of paper. Doesn't bode well for the future state of the nation....
IIRC we had things like this during the war?
Pots, pans, railings etc collected to be melted down into bullets, shells, helmets etc.
Complete waste of time, but 'good for morale'. Until Beryl then found she had nothing to cook her homegrown spuds in.
Loving that Ladybird book, good find!
Not getting excited yet but new cases down three days in a row according to worldometer.
@molgrips
Yep it’s funny the new daily routines/rituals you get into.
1)switch heating and coffee machine on.
2)check world o meter.
3)check FT graph.
4)drink a lot of coffee
5)check singletrack for bllcks.
6)post some bllcks on singletrack.
7) more coffe then you tube To young Turks to see how the USA Is.
8) See what Trump has said recently and slowly shake head.
Always worrying when the people who actually know what is happening start killing themselves
I don't think we can draw much of a conclusion from a sample of one.
EDIT: ignore my comments, was thinking about the split of deaths. Not woken up yet.
I don’t think we can draw much of a conclusion from a sample of one.
That won't stop people trying.
Covid-19 has caught Dominic Cummings.
My thoughts are with it's family
Morning folks, another day in the rabbit hole
Do we have to have this every morning? Life is enough like Groundhog Day as it is, do we need you to be both Sonny & Cher?
He's not tested positive, yet.
oh I'm sure he'll meet the criteria more than NHS staff do and be tested very soon
Covid-19 has caught Dominic Cummings.
He clearly didn't run away fast enough from Downing Street. Not for want of trying - what did he look like sprinting away like that?!
what did he look like sprinting away like that?!
Like what he is.
Does that mean if he has it and passes it on it will be a new particularly nasty strain we will be dealing with.
Does anyone actually believe we’ll come out if this with sub 20k people lost?….
I have a model-based analysis that predicts the total number of cases in a country. My answer is "too early to be say". Anyone who says different knows enough to be dangerous. I say this because the prediction of total cases is exponentially sensitive to parameter estimates which are hard to estimate in the early epidemic phase. I will say there is support for the 20,000 number, but that is all. I will confidently predict that Spain > Italy > UK.
I'm validating the model for 14-day predictions based on the (global) data we have accrued, because that is how far ahead I think models can look with any precision. This will provide confidence that interventions HAVE had an effect, and is how we should communicate the utility of projection. I suspect this will become the message.
Slowly, slowly, these predictions will hone in on reasonable projections. But don't get carried away with headline figure that the media wants. It's a war not a skirmish - "Over by Christmas"...
Does anyone actually believe we’ll come out if this with sub 20k people lost?….
Hope rather than think.
Like a lot of folks I think, I've had to shut down information about this for at least during the day while I'm working. I've restricted myself to one news bulletin a day (the main eve news) and put music on for background noise. I live alone and TBH, the anxiety that all this constant barrage of "urgent" news updates and reporting the slightest update or podium blather from yet another middle ranking politician is just draining.
I work with doctors (GPs and specialists mainly, but fast getting roped into working in trusts) and dentists and while we all want to help, and do the right thing, the lack of PPE, the lack of proper rest, the lack of understanding of treatment of COVID-19 is just frightening. I'm doing more to reassure colleagues, who're largely unused to working like this than actual management...scary times.
Question for y'all.
I've got a feeling that within a few weeks (I'm trying to stay optimistic) , pretty large areas of the UK ( in Wales, Devon, possibly Cornwall and NI etc) will be all-but Corona-free.
How would we all feel if we found ourselves lucky enough to live in an area that's Corona-free, but still living under lock-down rules?
a) Hard done by. We should road-block London and other high risks areas and let the rest of us get back to our lives.
b) Just happy to be safe.
c) Torn, because the ultimate end of this might just have to be immunity by getting it and getting over it.
I read Prof Karol Sikora this morning on Twitter talking about 'immunity certificates' for those who test positive for anti-bodies. If that became a thing, i'd be sorely tempted to say 'C'. I'm not handling the restrictions well. We (work) had to ask for a volunteer to do some site work recently, I put both hands up.
b)
The other two options are just selfish, insular, and a tad Daily maily.
So what next?
I guess this 3 weeks (or more) of restrictions will reduce new cases to some degree. (Hopefully to the point where hospitals can more or less cope.)
So what then in the weeks/months/years before an antibody test/vaccine arrive? Do we turn the tap back on for a while and then off again every few weeks using the same lockdown strategy? Or can we look forward to more sophisticated restrictions ie) Certain counties/towns would be on lockdown while others weren't or nationally say people with sirnames beginning with certain letters go back to normal on a rotation basis on a rotational basis or certain activities les risky activities are allowed while others aren't?
(I'm not suggesting any of those plans specifically, merely giving examples of other lockdown strategies.)
EDIT: I *SWEAR* I didn't read PJ's post before wrote mine!
NOW IS THE TIME
To promote cycling in light of this virus.
It attacks the respiratory system, so having a strong respiratory system helps fight such infections and helps people survive.
Cycling promotes this. So the industry should press this point. Great to get more people out and about which obviously helps fitness and health levels, and currently people are very very aware of their own respiratory system, and any idea or suggestion that improves it, they are more likely to listen to now, than at any other time.
P-Jay has watched Doomsday this weekend but has got mixed up with the plot.
c) Torn, because the ultimate end of this might just have to be immunity by getting it and getting over it.
100PC PC 'C' for me and my family. I see no reason why where would be a vaccine for this any time within 14 months. In contrast I can imagine an antibody test in a shorter time frame. So I deffo want to gt this ASAP and the *only* reason I'm busting a gut to avoid it is because I don't want to pass it on.
It would make sense to open up certain areas of the country when they are ready, because of the economic impact.
Is there any indication of WHERE in the UK the concentrations of infections are (e.g. big cities? London, Birmingham, etc?) or is it pretty evenly spread? If the former then it stands to reason the the lock-down will be more effective at eradicating it in lower-concentration areas.
In Contagion everyone got given a wristband when they were immune. It would be like a reverse-Glasto, everyone with a wristband is allowed OUT 😂
“Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold”
Is our goose pretty well cooked?
If the spread can be controlled then it makes absolute sense to lift the restrictions on a geographic basis. That would particularly make sense in rural - and food growing - regions.
I'm currently envisaging a reverse-Doomsday scenario.
A couple of questions re "phased re-opening".
Is it not true that at the moment there is no definitive answer on whether it is possible to contract COVID-19 for a second time?
Could someone who has proven immunity still be carrying the virus and pass it on, or simply by contact, pick it up from a surface and infect someone else who hasn't had it by contact?
I read Prof Karol Sikora this morning on Twitter talking about ‘immunity certificates’ for those who test positive for anti-bodies.
big danger with this is everyone (me included) who doesn't think they're at risk, will be deliberately trying to catch it so they're allowed back out - or being pressured by their work to do so.
Massive base of people - some of those will then infect the at risk groups, and some will have hidden health conditions that cause them to get it badly.
Is it not true that at the moment there is no definitive answer on whether it is possible to contract COVID-19 for a second time?
Could someone who has proven immunity still be carrying the virus and pass it on, or simply by contact, pick it up from a surface and infect someone else who hasn’t had it by contact?
As far as I understand:
Not confirmed, but considerably less likely - hence the herd immunity thing. Far far less likely to get it or pass it on if most people around you are partly immune.
If the virus cant take hold within your body and replicate in the way it is at the moment in virgin victims, you'll be a much less prolific "shedder" during the incubation phase, as your body will be fighting it better. Again, not impossible, but greatly reduced.
big danger with this is everyone (me included) who doesn’t think they’re at risk, will be deliberately trying to catch it so they’re allowed back out
Absolutely this..
Basically folks would be desperate to get it so they can get back to the pub.
A certificate for essential workers to go about their day jobs however does make sense. But it should only apply to certain folks, and not be a free pass to escape all lockdown measures, otherwise it just encourages others.
the mrs is struggling to get her asthma prescription filled. though not having to travel and the reduction in traffic is helping.
Boris has now tested clear?
What a man he is. Infected to clear in 3 days. A real example to the rest of us.
Really! He looked anything but clear on yesterday's 'address' !
Not confirmed, but considerably less likely – hence the herd immunity thing. Far far less likely to get it or pass it on if most people around you are partly immune.
isnt the problem that catching coronavirus &any vaccine too only confers immunity for 6-8 months?
Do we have to have this every morning? Life is enough like Groundhog Day as it is, do we need you to be both Sonny & Cher?
Inadvertently I've been on ground hog day a bit longer. Started it just to give a bit of contact - in an oh it's him background noise way. Was wondering if I had much really to say at the moment.
Anyone else want to pick it up?
Boris has now tested clear?
...and Charles' 7 days is up as well:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52088684
Boris has now tested clear?
sure about that?
wonder if charlie will head off home now?
Inadvertently I’ve been on ground hog day a bit longer.
Me too. I'm now on week 4 of WFH and I'm sick of it.
isnt the problem that catching coronavirus &any vaccine too only confers immunity for 6-8 months?
yes but you and every other "immune" person wandering around for 6-8 months drastically reduces the ability of everyone else to catch it. The current high "R" value and proportion of people who get it "bad" is due at least in part to us as a population currently having no immunity/vaccine - expect this to go down once it's established.
A certificate for essential workers to go about their day jobs
Well they haven’t got one now and they’re expected to er carry on 🙂
I suppose the only thing to do is look at China and Korea to see what they’re doing as they seem to be more on top of this.
Me too. I’m now on week 4 of WFH and I’m sick of it.
Your beating me, I did a week of self isolation out for a couple of days and back to this. Where I'm at I'm set up for it but the lack of face to face with friends is a pain.
I have mulled over sharing the next bit - given the way the current rules impact on us. Mainly because it's the stuff we dont talk about but right now should be. Or more correctly how to deal with stuff.
The self isolation bit was tough - last time I was in on my own not going out I was happily having a solo nervous breakdown. That was 20hrs a day of OCD cleaning, as you can imagine a global pandemic where the solution was cleaning was always going to be 'interesting' experience. Anyway didn't pop - the thought of it did scare me a bit. No didn't go on a cleaning binge and yes I did have to ask a friend if it was real!
Got through it by reading / posting on here and getting in touch with people, seeking nice stuff and avoiding over exposure to the news. Day in the rabbit hole created a bit of routine - get up, avoid news, check life here, post up if there was someone saying I'm scared etc. Anyway - that's me overly sharing. If I'm Sunny and Cher then we really do have problems!
Look after yourself Boomerlives
OAP glad you managed - did you get out on your bike or walking?
Got through it by reading / posting on here and getting in touch with people, seeking nice stuff and avoiding over exposure to the news. Day in the rabbit hole created a bit of routine – get up, avoid news, check life here, post up if there was someone saying I’m scared etc. Anyway – that’s me overly sharing. If I’m Sunny and Cher then we really do have
I thought you were going stir-crazy 🙂
Were gonna get a lot more of it thou and if posting on a forum helps people deal with it then carry on.
I thought you were going stir-crazy
The off the wall thoughts are business as usual - was slightly stir crazy in but not in any more of crazy way than the rest of us going WTF is happening.
OAP glad you managed – did you get out on your bike or walking?
Have now but didn't at the time as it was symptom stuff isolation - dont mix with others stay in.
Did have time to reflect on events.
Anyway - the important thing is more how we help everyone deal with the mind game of this rather than me.
I’m better with tubeless than emotional difficulties thou.