Are the UK any closer to having any of the vaccines passed as safe for the kids?
I think I recall seeing 12+ had been cleared recently, but the sooner we can get primary and junior school kids passed the better, it would be great to get them double-dosed before the start of the next academic year.
Pfizer is passed as safe for 12-15 year olds
The JVCI hasn't authorised its use yet - I suspect that'll happen after all 18+ have been vaccinated.
There needs to be better rule enforcement and compliance by those who are not double jabbed +2 weeks.
This sounds a bit big brother / 2 tier society. Jabbed or not everyone needs to be treated the same.
So… “carry on with the plans you have made” is the advice from the leader of Manchester City Council. And that “the rules aren’t different from anywhere else in the country”. There are “no restrictions that apply here that don’t apply everywhere else in England”. So that’s clear.
The government has already had a couple of goes (at least) at relying on 'good old British common sense', with unfortunate results. It's about time they were forced to be the ones taking unpopular political decisions rather than shifting the burden onto the public and local politicians.
While 'do what you want' isn't entirely the best advice for the circumstances, it's the correct one at this point, because the government has to accept that if it wants to substantially restrict behaviour, it has to be the one imposing firm rules and providing the tools to enforce them, rather than throwing out woolly guidance and saying 'we'd rather you didn't do x'.
Jabbed or not everyone needs to be treated the same.
That's exactly the approach that has been taken in the UK so far. We have to accept that it limits opportunities for all though. Arguably an Israeli style green card over the last few months would have meant fewer restrictions for everyone by now, including the unvaccinated.
I don't know about that, even the double-vaccinated can still catch and transmit the virus (see the post a few up), so imposing similar restrictions on them despite their status is still an important way to reduce overall transmission.
The myth that double-vaccinated people are immune probably needs to be tackled more strongly. We still have a role to play, and I can see a summer of mask wearing and occasional lateral flow testing for me.
Spread by the kids et all yet again, it’s clear they’re driving the infections and I’d say must be vaccinated along with all other age groups as a matter of importance. School, College and Uni are the ones in socializing together, everyone else is the ones taking precautions.
Double vaccination doesn't stop you getting it spreading it, just reduces the severity. As does being young.
Percentages of adults with antibodies to COVID (either from vaccine or infection):
England 80.3%
Wales 82.7%
NI 79.9%
Scotland 72.6%
Looks to me that we're getting close to the mythical herd immunity
Looks to me that we’re getting close to the mythical herd immunity
Yet infection rates are rising, including among people who have antibodies from vaccination or prior infection.
Quick question regarding the AZ vaccine, is the protection offered once you've had both doses better after having the second at 8 or 12 weeks? Or is there little to no difference?
Appreciate this has been covered before but I've been back 10 or so pages and can't find it.
Looks to me that we’re getting close to the mythical herd immunity
No, absolutely not.
That's adults, and does not include U18's who can catch and transmit. The way herd immunity works is like a firebreak, if the virus doesn't contact infectable individuals then it stops.
The U18's are like a network across most of the country that can transmit the virus between schools, clubs, etc., and then find its way to the 20% of unvaccinated and susceptible. It might not follow a direct path, but there is a path.
> deleted ... theotherjonv has said it <
Percentages of adults with antibodies to COVID (either from vaccine or infection):
England 80.3%
Wales 82.7%
NI 79.9%
Scotland 72.6%Looks to me that we’re getting close to the mythical herd immunity
There are (at least ) two different herds though, the under 18's who are not vaccinated, and the over 18's who are nearly mostly vaccinated
Quick question regarding the AZ vaccine, is the protection offered once you’ve had both doses better after having the second at 8 or 12 weeks?
Yes, definitely, particularly vs the India variant (which is pretty much the only game in town at the moment).
Single-vaccinated adults are at significantly higher risk of hospitalisation etc.
Looks to me that we’re getting close to the mythical herd immunity
The other thing to consider is that any immunity from prior exposure or perhaps even vaccination at the turn of the year will start to wane at some point, or become less effective against emerging strains, hence the likely need for people to be vaccinated even if they have already had the infection, and for the elderly to start receiving 'booster' shots as we head into autumn.
We will hopefully get to a point which feels a bit like herd immunity, but the virus remains a moving target.
Somebody in a nephew's school bubble has tested positive, and I'm now the bad guy for suggesting we need to review a planned meet up with them all tomorrow. Just checking, is the advice that anyone in the bubble self-isolates, but other family members don't have to unless somebody get symptoms?
There are (at least ) two different herds though, the under 18’s who are not vaccinated, and the over 18’s who are nearly mostly vaccinated
Following on from that and my post. It's not totally bleak, there is a lot of mixing between herds but not total mixing. I think this is why the multigenerational families in the NW for example have been hard hit, because of the mixing (and also relatively lower uptake of vaccines)
But that says to me again that vaxxing the young is still not the top priority, we can't do it fast enough to get efficacy and need to continue to target those that would suffer most - as much of the 20% as we can and particularly the older members of that 20%. Aware of course that the reason many of them aren't already done is because of either inability, or unwillingness (at which point where do we say 'you had your chance')
TLDR; we need to continue to control the spread by lockdown extensions, herd immunity and vaxx is coming but not here yet......
8 or 12 weeks?
12.
But getting the protection sooner, even if it's slightly lower, might be wise considering what's going to be happening this summer. That's the decision the government have taken anyway. It looks as if they're not going to be waiting around for people to get second jabs at 12 weeks before giving people their full(ish) "freedom". I've left mine at 12 weeks for now... because I can work at home... but starting to think that I've probably got that wrong.
Thanks, that's what I thought I'd read. My wife, 41 & no issues, has had a text asking her (& possibly me as well) to book in an earlier date, we're not even at 8 weeks yet.
My other half took the offer of an earlier second jab... but she's a teacher. I might change mine yet... conflicted to be honest.
@ Fathomer, were you/your wife vaccinated by your GP or at mass vaccination centre? I thought the option to bring the 2nd dose forward was only available for over 50s (groups 1-9)
No, people in their 40s are getting the offer, I know plenty of people who've taken it up.
I was originally invited by text to get my second jab yesterday after just 8 weeks, but I commited to getting jabbed next week instead, when my GP surgery phoned me up. 47, just like with my first jab in early/mid April, I wonder if my jabs were brought forward a bit because of my partner's Long Covid.
She's now into her 9th month of sick absense from her NHS job since she displayed classic symptoms in mid March '20 and now work are threatening to reduce her pay to half pay. We think we spotted an error in the documentation of her absense that could stop this injustice.
England 80.3%
Wales 82.7%
NI 79.9%
Scotland 72.6%
Thats an interesting statistic when looked at with the infection rates recently.
I'd been wondering why the Scottish rate was rising so quickly but it could be down to fewer previous infections.
Thanks, I’ll inform my partner as she would like to get it earlier but hasn’t been offered this yet, I guess may depend on the local situation re number of cases etc
Double vaccination doesn’t stop you getting it spreading it, just reduces the severity. As does being young.
I must admit im a bit confused on this part. Does it or does it not reduce the spread? And if not, why are young healthy individuals being asked to get the jab? For example, I know a lot of young people that have already caught it over the last year, been fine, and yet are being asked to take the vaccine for what benefit?
We should surely be sending those vaccines abroad by this point to help the world effort in vaccinating those that are actually vulnerable to this disease.
Or, it does reduce transmission. In which case why does a vaccinated person have to obey the same restrictions as an unvaccinated one?
It doesn't "stop" you getting it and spreading it... but everything so far points to it reducing the chance of both/either. The stronger data is on reducing severity, and arguably that is more important for now. That is saving lives.
@Miguelo wife got a text from the GP and they let me tag along, the jab was at the local council offices which I think is a GP hub.
Vaccination is shown to reduce our eliminate symptomatic infection and also reduce spread. You're not manufacturing at the same rate you might be, basically, is my understanding. I'm sure a grown up can correct me or expand if required.
Or, it does reduce transmission. In which case why does a vaccinated person have to obey the same restrictions as an unvaccinated one
A question for your MP perhaps?
IMO it's because 1 rule for all might be seen as the most effective way forward taking in to account human behaviour.
Tim Spector - "it's going to get worse before it gets better"
Is it a Cold? Or is it COVID? Mild symptoms are allowing the Delta Variant to fly under the radar and run rampant among younger, partially vaccinated people according to the latest data from the ZOE COVID Study.
Discussing the figures, Professor Tim Spector predicts the vaccine will protect many vulnerable people, but as the Delta variant spreads much faster than originally thought, things will get worse before they get better.
Tim calls on all app contributors to ask their friends and family under 40 years old to join the app and log how they feel. And if you feel unwell, stay at home and get tested.
I’m now the bad guy for suggesting we need to review a planned meet up with them all tomorrow. Just checking, is the advice that anyone in the bubble self-isolates, but other family members don’t have to unless somebody get symptoms?
Regardless of the guidance, my question would be "do you want to risk catching and/or spreading it now, rather than wait 10 days?"
Depends on the importance of the get together, and the risk/protection for yourselves AND those you might be meeting in the next week.
Looks to me that we’re getting close to the mythical herd immunity
Sadly, we're not.
It's another one of those things in regards to Covid which seems to just get worse.
A year ago, pre-Alpha (Kent) and certainly pre-Delta (Indian) they were using figures around 65%
With Delta being the dominant strain, it's 80% and that's 80% of everyone.
The figures above represent Adults, there's 14m children in the UK, and even now the Pfizer has been approved for the over 12s, take up won't be as high, people are naturally cautious to give their kids something they'd take themselves, especially as it needs them to act selflessly, Kids who don't have a serious medical condition, almost never get sick with Covid, but they can spread it.
As I said yesterday on one of this various Covid related threads (possibly this one) I fear 'normality' or going back to our old freedoms will either be impossible, or come at a cost in lives.
Dr. David Nabarro, the WHO Special Envoy on Covid says Vaccines won't be enough, and we'll still need to wear masks and Social Distance, perhaps indefinately, certainly past this month, here in Wales, social distancing is likely to continue into 2022.
Personally, I don't think it will, I think the majority of people will prefer to accept some risk, even the risk of death of themselves and loved ones, to have normal life back again, it's not as stupid are selfish as it might seem, we accept risk to enjoy life all the time.
I personally think the only real end-game is exposure, we will all have to have at least one go at having Covid19, hopefully after you've had a vaccine and it's likely as our immune systems adapt it will become a non-lethal virus, and eventually a 'cold' in years to come.
Or maybe we'll all get used to masks, we'll pull down Sports stadiums, make music venues all seater / social distanced etc etc etc
Some scary listening and watching with this:
https://twitter.com/ISAGCOVID19/status/1400044463758610438
source: https://www.isagcovid19.org/
Prof Ferguson
The research is] saying there is a risk of a substantial third wave - we cannot be definitive about the scale of that, it could be substantially lower than the second wave, or it could be of the same order of magnitude.
That, critically, depends on how effective the vaccines still are protecting people against hospitalisation and death against the Delta variant, as well as a few other unknowns.
Thats a scary vid - 10,000 cases by next week and worse than our Euro / US counterparts.
Ouch.
Thats a scary vid – 10,000 cases by next week
Scotland is already at 1,000 cases per day. Scale that up according to population as England is now on the same curve.
However the curve is not (yet) matched by the death rate.
Really does depend if vaccination breaks the link between infection, hospitalisation and deaths. The infection rate concerns me, but I'm not at the panic/despair stage yet.
Got my second jab invite this morning for a week on Sunday. I’ll probably be one of the very last group 6 folks to have both as they originally missed me off the list
Going to adopt a bunker mentality from now until 4th July which will be 2 weeks from jab date. After 18 months I’d be furious if I caught it just weeks away from being maximum protected. After that I’ll just have to take my chances with it like everyone else will have to. Ultimately covid aint going anywhere and we will have to learn to live with it.
Can’t they just close schools for summer holidays a couple of weeks early as that would have a massive impact of transmission numbers?
Is there any evidence schools are driving infection rates? They’ve been open for quite a while now, whereas cases have only recently started increasing…… seems more likely that opening of hospitality and household mixing is the main cause . Plus the new variant.
Regardless of the guidance, my question would be “do you want to risk catching and/or spreading it now, rather than wait 10 days?”
Depends on the importance of the get together, and the risk/protection for yourselves AND those you might be meeting in the next week.
Ta. Yes, all agreed to postpone. They decided, so all good in the end.
Can’t they just close schools for summer holidays a couple of weeks early as that would have a massive impact of transmission numbers?
I really hope not. Bring back mask use across English schools… we should consider many/any other measures before any school closures.
Is there any evidence schools are driving infection rates?
Rossendale is third in the country, mainly driven by a large outbreak in a local school. Masks are still being worn in schools in Lancashire, it didn't prevent mass infection across one school of 1000 kids.
Erewash went to the top of the national tables a month or so back when 170 staff and pupils at a secondary school tested positive. That then had a ripple round the area.
Is there any evidence schools are driving infection rates?
Anecdotally I've had more staff call off through CV19 in the school they were due to be working in during the last fortnight than the previous year, in total.
We've got through nearly 18 months of being in schools with no staff isolation and no infections. I've got one staff member isolating for 10 days as of today.
I spoke to 5 local authorities across UK today. One told me to crack on, two told me they were worried and two said they were moving to block external people like us again until end of term.
Matt, H&S manager for education training & delivery company.
Tomorrow morning we reduce our work in schools again.
And yes, Scotland NHS dashboard shows huge swing to under 20's infections compared to older.
As ever, cause and effect has to be questioned - older ages vaccinated and young lot mixing more Vs Delta variant is meant to be much more virulent in younger ages, more secondary infections in households and apparently sub 2 minute to get infected next to someone...
Two of my colleagues have been told they are going to a mass face to face client event in Cheshire on the 2nd July. They seem to be scared of telling the company of their anxiety of going, albeit I suggested the event will probably be called off...
