ONS now publish this information so I have chosen not to do so
That's pretty well done on a first read. As Mefty notes deaths this year have dropped bringing Covid deaths above excess (or even lack of) deaths. Thats gives some credence to the idea that Covid brought forward deaths and we will now enjoy a period of below average deaths if we can keep a lid on Covid.
Aren't I cheerful. 😉
I'm suprised the comparison with cars is being taken as far as it is, perhaps a better comparison is with eating sugar which no-one has to do, doesn't put others at risk if you do or don't and on the basis of recent research on heart disease is likely to kill a lot of people on this forum on the basis of contributions to threads.
I’m convinced. I was wrong. Because I drive a car we should never have had a lockdown, and I would have been fine with the predicted 400,000 deaths
Its certainly an impressive effort in straw man whataboutery. By impressive I mean sticking with it rather than technically proficient.
Thats gives some credence to the idea that Covid brought forward deaths...
Of course, every Covid death is by definition a "death brought forward", but when looking at such a short period, it's more that as well as reducing Covid deaths, measures put in place have also reduced deaths from other causes as well, especially over winter.
Thats gives some credence to the idea that Covid brought forward deaths
The phrase 'saving lives' should be discontinued. You can never save a life, just delay a death.
What are you going to call efforts to reduce infant mortality then?
What are you going to call efforts to reduce infant mortality then
Delaying death by a lot.
Nice… “I’d like to thank all the staff at the maternity hospital for delaying the inevitable death of our premature baby”. Healthcare can save lives. The language is important, because it reminds us life is precious. Take a good look at people constantly saying that “people die anyway, why put so much effort/money into delaying death” when talking about health measures, they tend to be a bit ****ty.
It’s the principle I’m arguing: that we already choose to sacrifice many people to lead a ‘normal’ life.
No. You aren't arguing a principle: If that was the case then you would be advocating that society would have no right to restrict people's activities under any circumstances, even if it led to a greater good: So you could not force one individual to stay at home in isolation for a week even if it meant releasing a virus that killed 99.9% of the world's population.
What we are argiung about is the scale of restrictions & the amount of collateral harm caused by them versus the damage caused to society as a whole by allowing the virus to spread. It isn't a black or white principle it's a judgement of what is an appropriate cost.
The reason why you aren't getting much support on here is becasue you give the impression that you are prepared to see tens, if not hundreds, of thousands of people die of the virus if it means that you get to keep the well paid job you used to have.
Is the mask/distancing thing largely over now? I risked Lidl and service station today and estimated about 30% of people observing varying methods of masks, bandanas and chinstraps while the rest were seemingly going about life as before Covid, ie sans distancing, mask, bandana or even chinstrap.
Im fact a maskless delight got in front of me quite literally and wafted her stinky perfume all over me as she stood near my toes and chatted jokingly about whether I was actually in the queue or not before she got there. I was now trapped between her, the wine rack and someone behind. Then I manage to get to the checkout and the assistant is wearing his mask under his nose. Same in the service station. Some customers with masks, checkout guy no mask or gloves or antibac on counter.
‘Measures’ are pretty much over for Britain then? I say this as our town has over the last year been quite stringent compared to other towns/estates I’ve witnessed. ie just last week on making a delivery I witnessed a bunch of people putting up a bouncy castle on the communal green of a housing estate in Telford. Wonder if it was a planned suoer-spreader event like those olden-times ‘pox parties’?
It's still all maskness up here.
Near total adherence here as well.
+1 for not noticing any change in mask behaviour in Edinburgh
I am afraid that when it comes to mortality statistics, it does not have to be a zero sum game - whilst over 85 mortality is now lower than historic control, the eventual long-term outcome is not "would have died anyway", it is reduced average life expectancy. There will be a small but measurable reduction, as noted in the US already.
Measures’ are pretty much over for Britain then
Nope, round here has its fair share of idiots, but mask wearing in shops is pretty much still being universally followed, and the vast majority are doing their best to distance still as well
This popped up on the Lancet yesterday. Basically saying the 'zero-COVID' approach gives the best outcome for health, economy AND liberty. Living with COVID (it was said on yesterday's briefing) and trying to mitigate whilst keeping the economy going doesn't work.
Was wondering the other day if we went back in time to Nov 2019 with the knowledge and tools we have now, would we be able to contain it, or would it outrun us again?
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)00978-8/fulltext#fig1
Arse! Last week Monday a child in my youngest son’s class at school tested positive for Corona from the twice weekly quick test. Child was isolated and sent home to quarantine until a PCR test confirmed it. Test confirmed and the whole class sent home on Thursday to quarantine for ten days. My lad started developing a sore throat at the weekend and a slight temperature so on Monday we took him to a test center and he was positive ( along with 5 other kids in his class) Then yesterday we took him for the PCR test and took our 15 yo daughter, too as a precaution and just got the results that both are positive. Myself and Mrs Stern only had our first AZ jab last week so I hope we have a little protection. 🥺
Was wondering the other day if we went back in time to Nov 2019 with the knowledge and tools we have now, would we be able to contain it, or would it outrun us again?
We could buy up any PPE we could find, close our borders and impose quarantine from mid January 2020, it would make a start.
Actually, it probably wouldn't, hindsight is great but never perfect.
Delaying death
As a medical scientist I resent that, nothing short of complete immortality is a total waste of time!
We’ll be downloading yerr consciousness into SSDs and blasting you at alpha centuri in 50 years, altered carbon style.
Was wondering the other day if we went back in time to Nov 2019 with the knowledge and tools we have now, would we be able to contain it, or would it outrun us again?
We'd certainly handle nursing homes a lot better with careful testing. And we would have taken appropriate measures earlier. And have better treatments for hospitalised patients. These alone would have mitigated some of the deaths. But in truth, the UK is rubbish at preventing ANNUAL influenza, so I am afraid we would be in a little better position with SARS-CoV-2 than we are now.
Myself and Mrs Stern only had our first AZ jab last week so I hope we have a little protection
How many days? You'll have some emergent protection that will help. May limit morbidity even if it does not prevent symptomatic infection. Hope you are all OK soon.
Not all driving-related deaths are due to accidents anyway. What about – more indirectly – cancers, respiratory illnesses, micro-plastics, etc?
If Covid had been allowed to run rampant with no lockdowns none of those people would have been getting treated anyway so excess deaths would be even higher.
How many days? You’ll have some emergent protection that will help. May limit morbidity even if it does not prevent symptomatic infection. Hope you are all OK soon.
Had the injection 8 days ago. Thanks for the well wishes TiRed. My son is already perking up and my daughter is completely asymptomatic at the moment.
despite the 'high' infection rate and R number, it's not a given that they will pass it to you. Don't treat it as inevitable, isolate them as much as you can and be rigorous yourselves with your control measures.
https://hartfordhealthcare.org/about-us/news-press/news-detail?articleId=30113&publicid=743
I know several people where a family member has had but not passed on (as well as several where they did)
I love this thread for 3 reasons:
1 - there are some genuinely well informed people contributing as best they can despite the obvious trolling
2 - the level of empathy displayed towards people experiencing significant issues, or losing loved ones really is heart warming
3 - the trolls and/or libertarian crackpots consistently out themselves so we know who all they are now
I love this thread
I haven't looked here for ages, does look good so will keep checking it.
I added a few COVID disinfo lists on Twitter this week and it's jaw-dropping. The nonsense people are pushing out on social media (some of it celebs and well know business people). Very scary, but hopefully a noisy minority.
NHS website bookings now open to those 40+.
would we
be able tocontain it, or would it outrun us again?
Assuming the same decision makers, we wouldn’t contain it. We’d be ‘able to’, but we wouldn’t do so. You only have to look at how we handled September 2020 to the first weeks of January 2021, after we had months of data from home and abroad, to see that knowledge isn’t enough… leadership is key.
Seen a few people say ages over 39 3/4 can book now, so worth a try.
We’d be ‘able to’, but we wouldn’t do so. You only have to look at how we handled September 2020 to the first weeks of January 2021, after we had months of data from home and abroad, to see that knowledge isn’t enough… leadership is key.
Yes, the key factor we've been missing from the start. Sadly, they are now gaslighting everyone with their "got vaccine done" narrative.
I think it’s if you are over the limit by the time of 2nd jab. Or something like.
I think it’s if you are over the limit by the time of 2nd jab. Or something like.
Makes sense. With the 2nd jab, do you have to work out 3 months later and book manually? My parents got offered and booked dates for both, but mine is just the 1st jab. Or does it happen automatically?
By “The French”, do you means the families of people who died after vaccination?
People die due to the side effects of drugs all the time, doesn’t mean to say there’s a case to answer for on AZ’s part - and unless there has been a manufacturing issue that could have caused these deaths (my spies tell me there hasn’t) - then any attempt at prosecuting AZ will only lead to more deaths.
But it’s not “the French”, is it… it’s a few families who have lost loved ones and hope to get some redress. I agree that I expect them to fail, and that it would be better for vaccine uptake if they didn’t resort to legal action. I’d like to think I wouldn’t respond in the same way if it was me, but it’s hard to really know how for sure. What if there are dependents left behind? Empathy only goes so far, but we can try.
With the 2nd jab, do you have to work out 3 months later and book manually? My parents got offered and booked dates for both, but mine is just the 1st jab. Or does it happen automatically?
It happens automatically with the national booking system as you're forced to book both jabs at the same time, the system offers you second jab options, you simply select one that suits after you've selected your first jab booking.
If you go the local GP booking route, as I understand it, you'll either be prompted by text to book your second appointment close to when it's due or in some cases, folk have contacted their GPs and instigated it that way.
So far I have yet to hear of private prosecutions being attempted in other countries.
My empathy doesn’t extend that far, **** them. There’s a time and place for it and that’s after the pandemic has passed.
If you go the local GP booking route, as I understand it, you’ll either be prompted by text to book your second appointment close to when it’s due or in some cases, folk have contacted their GPs and instigated it that way.
Thanks. Yes, mine I booked after a prompt from the GP via text.
My empathy doesn’t extend that far, **** them.
Charming.
If you follow the link from the gov.uk page then you book 1st and 2nd jabs. I'm 11 days on from jab #1 and have the date of#2 firmly on my mind..... But then it is my wedding anniversary!
I have a lot of sympathy and empathy, but not in favour of this rush to sue.
Nor me, and I hope I wouldn’t in that situation. But seeking legal redress for the result of any medical intervention still, thankfully, seems quite alien to me in the UK. In other countries it can be seen as the means to provide for those left behind. The purpose and workings of the legal system varies from country to country. Easy to say we have have it right because we’re used to what we have.
I find it hard to believe that AZ will not know something along these lines would happen, or indeed any of the major vaccine developers/manufacturers.
Not sure its particularly a French thing, half expecting some US case too.
AZ still hasn’t been approved in the US.
One of the reasons we started vaccinating early in the UK is that our government protected vaccine suppliers from the risk of litigation… something I think they got absolutely right.
The level of knowledge about how some side effects come up is very low in a lot of cases.
They are rare side effects that were not found in the trials, and the modelling of actions within the body is only so good. With vaccines it is even less as the immune system adds an element of random.
Auto immune diseases happen in a body without any intervention so predicting how a drug or a vaccine can interact in every way possible is far beyond science at present. It is the absolute reason for clinical trials. Fundamentally gcp and medicines and the hippocratic path is 'do no harm'
Sadly sometimes things happen that are beyond prediction. If they didn't we wouldn't need pharmacovigilance which looks at adverse events when drugs are in trials and on the market.
It is a fact of life sadly as the human body is way more complex than is able to be modeled at present
AZ still hasn’t been approved in the US.
One of the reasons we started vaccinating early in the UK is that our government protected vaccine suppliers from the risk of litigation… something I think they got absolutely right.
I'm not referring specifically to AZ, any vaccine producer.
Jansen for example
Also, any under 50s, particularly under 45s in Scotland got their appointments/jags yet?
