I think that in some cases there is a justification for individual inquests.
If we don't learn from errors made then how do we improve ready for the next time (and i have no doubt there will be a next time)
Its the lack of lessons learnt from Lockdown
1 which cost us so badly in Lockdowns 2 and 3.
Well, the refusal to accept the lessons of Lockdown 1 and the expert advice based on it. The main facts being that locking down hard and locking down early, with proper financial support, saves infections, deaths, long term illness, the NHS; results in shorter lockdowns so less impact on the businesses, schools, education, jobs, life chances, cost of bailout schemes.
You have to be pretty thick/blinkered/ a **** not to see what needed doing
Put it this way, most of the care home residents ‘saved’ last year are now dead anyway of old age-related illnesses.
It's useful when people throw in one of these little fact-bombs. Makes it easier for the casual reader to label the rest of their input as complete bullshit.
I don't think some people advising the government ever quite gave up on the idea of herd immunity without vaccination. Much credence was given to anybody who said higher numbers than announced had already been infected and non-vaccinated herd immunity wasn't far off. When in fact it was quickly obvious that the virus would mutate and even a managed slow burn through the community would overload the NHS for years rather than months. I got some flak on here the first time I reported Institut Pasteur talking abouut variants and used the word "strains", though a suggestion the virus would probably mutate to something more infectious was better received.
There was the idea after the intial wave that it wouldn't be as bad again because some people aleady had antibodies when experience with the 1918 flu suggested the following waves would be worse.
you’re failing the empathy test again
The same could be said for you. You don't appear to care about the people whose lives have been destroyed by the lockdown, only in reducing the number of immediate dead.
I will remind you all, that at the peak (which was contained by lockdown) more than half of all beds in the NHS were occupied by covid patients. When that reaches 75%, 90%, what then. Conventional healthcare is linear (cancer, strokes, accidents), but infectious disease healthcare is exponential. Whilst the message may sound like “prevent all deaths”, in fact the reasons for control were to maintain civil society in some capacity with functioning healthcare. See India.
It is the least bad option. Not a good one.
he same could be said for you. You don’t appear to care about the people whose lives have been destroyed by the lockdown
But these people have the opportunity to recover... Missing a year from school isn't great but in the vast majority of cases people will go on to have happy & fulfilled lives. & you only have to see how the economy is forecast to bounce back to appreciate that people will survive a temporary economic setback. Not many people bounce back from death.
It was always going to be a compromise, Gribs. With some countries erring on caution and others towards letting people look after themselves. France has gone for the middle ground with schools losing less than two months so fat but the arts and entertainment being shut down. Sweden was even lighter and Germany a tad more rigorous.
The "destroyed lives" comment is a bit OTT and many examples in the press concern financial matters. I take more interest in the mental and physical health issues and would argue that the mental issues associated with long Covid more than equal the mental issues due to lockdowns.
More could and should have been done for business in some countries, others have done a better job of pausing activity without destroying it. On a personal level I'd rather have to dig myself out of a financial mess in good health than try to keep working with long Covid and go under financially in a few years time and have poor health.
Well, the refusal to accept the lessons of Lockdown 1 and the expert advice based on it. The main facts being that locking down hard and locking down early, with proper financial support, saves infections, deaths, long term illness, the NHS; results in shorter lockdowns so less impact on the businesses, schools, education, jobs, life chances, cost of bailout schemes.
You have to be pretty thick/blinkered/ a **** not to see what needed doing
you would think... but no two countries locked down equally. can anyone say that we endured extra X weeks of lockdown with Y extra deaths and Z cost to economy because for example we were allowed to "exercise locally with 1 other person" while other countires put a distance limit to it?
The logic of the lockdowns was not so much about reducing covid to ‘livable’ levels but on the basis that all lives must be saved.
Once more for those that weren't concentrating earlier. We locked down to allow the NHS to continue to function without being over-run with people needing oxygen and ventilators. Have a look at the tragedy unfolding in India because they have a very large infected population and not enough places to treat them, nor oxygen and ventilators.
It was not about all lives save nor was at any time. At one point eugenics was in play and you're coming across as a blinkered half-wit.
See India.
I think that has to be the answer to anyone questioning the use of lockdowns. Don't forget we had hospitals running short of oxygen, supplies - and patients - being shipped around the country and that was with lockdown in place to reduce the spread. Obviously nothing like as bad as India are facing, but that's what unfettered spread, especially in dense urban areas with multi generational households would have resulted in.
can anyone say that we endured extra X weeks of lockdown with Y extra deaths and Z cost to economy because for example we were allowed to “exercise locally with 1 other person” while other countires put a distance limit to it
You not got any friends sending you pics of them enjoying sporting events, concerts, and a relatively normal work and social life from Australia and New Zealand then?
Go hard, go early. Was demonstrated to work over there, the experts over here were confirming it when they first suggested the second lockdown. But we didn't.
Australia and New Zealand are both thinly populated islands with far fewer reliance on cross border traffic than in Europe. They have warm dry weather and we know the virus prefers cold, damp conditions. Lockdowns in Europe got levels of new cases very low in some places but it was soon realised that elimination wasn't going to happen unless the whole continent locked down simultaneously and people ate only local produce which was never going to happen.
Once more for those that weren’t concentrating earlier. We locked down to allow the NHS to continue to function without being over-run with people needing oxygen and ventilators. Have a look at the tragedy unfolding in India because they have a very large infected population and not enough places to treat them, nor oxygen and ventilators.
We only did national lockdowns when London was potentially in that position. Case numbers up north were low during the first lockdown and hospital capacity wasn't even close to being a problem. We could have chosen lower restrictions and run hospitals closer to capacity, with the obvious risk of getting it wrong and having a lot more people die who would have survived with treatment.
Sorry, I'm not buying the "yeah but" defence with regards to the UK.
It would have been much harder, it wouldn't have eliminated the virus in the UK completely. But we never made more than a token effort, at a time when Australia and New Zealand were showing it could work, when South Korea and Taiwan - densely populated countries reliant on trade remember - were showing what proper track and trace could do without lockdowns.
We didn't look, we didn't learn, we just blundered on and wrecked lives and businesses.
Go hard, go early. Was demonstrated to work over there, the experts over here were confirming it when they first suggested the second lockdown.
For it to work though you then have to shut down borders. No point shutting down hard and fast if you then open back up again.
The UK got rates down pretty well in the first lockdown but then had people sodding off on holiday and mixing away.
You not got any friends sending you pics of them enjoying sporting events, concerts, and a relatively normal work and social life from Australia and New Zealand then?
Yes, roughly half my uni friends doing medical degrees managed to emigrate to paradise not long after graduation. So I've seen both the medical and social benefits of Aus and NZ via facebook.
Copying their original approach for our second lockdown isn't quite considering the same starting point though.
For it to work though you then have to shut down borders. No point shutting down hard and fast if you then open back up again.
The UK got rates down pretty well in the first lockdown but then had people sodding off on holiday and mixing away.
Absolutely. Still, lesson learned for this year, eh?
India does not seem to be getting much help from around the world, I think so far only UK, Singapore & New Zealand (Redcross) have helped. All the promises from World Leaders and nothing do they understand every second people are losing their lives in India due to lack of Oxygen. What the hell is the world doing they are not asking for vaccines.
France has sent 8 oxygen producing units and oxygen to provide for 10 000 patients a day when up and running. Germany is sending oxygen equipment too.
France & Germany have shipped nothing yet France plan to ship using Air & Sea which is joke, why cant they use the airforce. Also the oxygen producing units provided can uninterruptedly supply a 250-bed hospital, fulfil the needs of 15 critically ill COVID-19 patients in an ICU (or 30 patients in the ICU of a conventional hospital) or 150 patients on oxygen therapy in a conventional hospital facility. That's not 10000 patients a day the liquid medical oxygen will cover 10000 patients a day but is going by Sea so no rush.
can you fly liquid oxygen? seems unlikely.
Jambo of course you can As emergency medical supplies its called shipping Dangerous Goods, Singapore has sent 2 plane loads.
Ireland is sending 700 oxygen concentrators to India and they were expected to arrive today.
I'm surprised that Boris doesn't use this to deflect the sleaze scandal.
Watch this space, I feel a new initiative coming: "8pm doorstep clapping for NHS worker's families".. yes he is that crass and racist
Given the weight of liquid oxygen and its bottles, I would have thought the priority would be to get the kit out there to increase production of their own. With the best will in the world, sending oxygen cannisters given the scale of the problem in India is real drop in the ocean stuff.
with the obvious risk of getting it wrong and having a lot more people die who would have survived with treatment.
When it starts to go wrong, I am afraid it is too late. You can't argue with compounding. That's also the problem with nuclear reactor controls. You run conservative because you don't want to run away. We almost lost control. India has. The arguments regarding the first lockdown and timing are moot due to absence of information. Arguments regarding the second (and third) are not. The advice was clear and the decision was political. The resultant decline since January is self-evident and precdented by errrrr the first one. THIS time, there will be some tangible benefits of immunity (from vaccination).
What sacrifices have you made to save people out of interest? Has your business now failed for example? Or are you one of many given a year-long holiday on furlough money?
That’s also the problem with nuclear reactor controls.
which is why normal reactors rely on negative coefficients of reactivity to slow the reaction e.g. water moderated thermal spectrum reactor (most of them worldwide outside the UK) - temperature goes up, water becomes less dense, less water to slow the neutrons down so they can cause another fission, reaction rate drops.
But a very good point about control systems of all sorts 🙂
Please watch this video about what's happening in India. I have a small team in Pune. We have multiple people off with COVID, people off because close family members have died. Those that are still working have been working from home for a year from their flats. Lockdown was hard in Pune with each apartment area allowed 2 hours to do food shopping a day. Restrictions were lifted earlier this year but they're back in a harder lockdown than we've had in the UK. They are my friends, they are good people, the have had a much harder time than people in the UK.
It was not about all lives save nor was at any time. At one point eugenics was in play and you’re coming across as a blinkered half-wit.
No need to call me a half-wit but I understand your point. I think one issue is a failure from many parties to formally articulate - technically or procedurally - what price is worth paying to reduce deaths to some specified rate or absolute number.
Many talk about inequalities in terms of covid outcome but the cost of lockdown is not bourne equality either. In fact, it's very much a case of the young paying to save the old. How will that favour be repaid?
i_scoff_cake it’s very much a case of the young paying to save the old. How will that favour be repaid?
What is up with you disgusting attitude, so your saying we should not of protected our elderly thank god the government does not agree with you.
I think one issue is a failure from many parties to formally articulate – technically or procedurally
(This)**lots
I have tried to be transparent and explain the technical aspects as clearly as I can. I suspect that the mortality message ("save lives") is simpler to understand then the wider picture, but it is not really the key message. India will highlight the real message; failure to act has consequences for all - including additional morbidity in the young (still being discovered). We too have colleagues in India in the same situation.
Repayment will be via taxation, I am in no doubt.
I know many people have suffered in the UK, physically, emotionally, financially but seriously, India is demonstrating what not acting really means. And you can bet its their most vulnerable who are suffering most.
I'll agree the transparency and explanation have been shocking all along though.
India is demonstrating what not acting really means.
I'm not trying to sound callous but what are the cold hard numbers? TV makes for good drama but it's not a good basis for policy or decisions.
Numbers in India 300k detected cases per day (some estimates i saw were that real cases are 3-5 x that). Even going on reported that could mean 3000 deaths per day based on our levels of mortality (bearing in mind that their healthcare system is in serious trouble it will probably be double that at least in reported deaths).
I saw a report that in one city ghat (no idea how many there actually are in the city) they had 110 cremations in a day from suspected covid cases, where the whole city reported 10 official deaths.
These are all swags, but i reckon we could be seeing 50k deaths a day in a month. If those are the reported numbers we will never know. Will only find that out in years to come on census data
I’m not trying to sound callous
Really??? How do you think that is working out for you given your recent posting history?
Many talk about inequalities in terms of covid outcome but the cost of lockdown is not bourne equality either. In fact, it’s very much a case of the young paying to save the old
Up to a point, Lord Copper.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-56862888
I’m not trying to sound callous but what are the cold hard numbers? TV makes for good drama but it’s not a good basis for policy or decisions.
As I understand it, reported deaths per head of population so far are lower than we had, due to the size of the Indian population. (Which shows how badly we did)
However, that is reported deaths, and their infection rates - which will impact death rates in a couple of weeks - are going through the roof. These pictures from India are the start of the crisis
Reported deaths per million are much lower than France and Germany are experiencing at the moment. A lot of people live in India, equivalent deaths to ours would be in the millions, which sadly may come to pass but hopefully not.
It’s about healthcare capacity as well.
I think one issue is a failure from many parties to formally articulate – technically or procedurally – what price is worth paying to reduce deaths to some specified rate or absolute number.
Would you care to articulate your opinion?
My concern about India is that while they currently have a lower level of deaths per million, the rate of infection growth at the moment wouldn't take a long time for the numbers to be horrifyingly massive. I really hope it doesn't get to that but i have a nasty feeling that it could and with an overrun healthcare system the outcome is going to be heartbreaking.
Two bits of good news…
At home : further Pfizer doses planned for this winter for booster shots.
Abroad : USA looking to get their AZ stock over to India.
For those who want to read it, the publication on transmission is here. Figure 2 is the moneyplot. Note that the x-axis is reversed. Very pleasing result for those in close contact in households.
Repayment will be via taxation, I am in no doubt.
Definitely. It'll paid for by those who gained little benefit from the lockdowns. Those who did benefit won't pay a thing.
