R5 reporting u50 jab booking opening tomorrow.
And I’m still ‘not eligible’ aged 50.
My birthday was at Easter but the NHS database is slow to update so I can’t book online and my surgery will have to wait for my name to be added from the NHS
Happy to wait my turn but pissed off that it is my turn!
Regarding body bags - When I was making scrubs last year (there was a shortage), some of the sewers in my group were making body bags, as with the scrubs there was a shortage.
Sobering.
Queues and crowds of people around JD Sports and Primark across the country already. Not to sound snobby – although it does – this shows the demographic we are dealing with that’d rather risk Covid over the latest discounted trainers or some cheap clothes.
I’m sure there are queues outside posh Chelsea boutiques too.
What is wrong with going shopping? It’s no different to going to a supermarket, plus hardly any cases, masks, vaccines, distancing etc.
It’s not risking Covid, it’s getting on with life.
In case you hadn’t noticed, said plebs have been working right through the lockdowns anyway.
I can’t wait to go to Primark later once I’ve finished my shift.
I can’t wait to go to Primark later once I’ve finished my shift.
Genuinely? Wouldn’t leaving it a few days make it a more pleasant experience? Why the rush?
Same goes for Chelsea boutiques of course. If there is a genuine rush on today (still no idea if there is one more generally, there may well just be isolated but click friendly incidences) leaving it a few days before heading to the shops seems a no brainer to me.
@TiRed – what do your models predict for the coming months?
I'm not doing those predictions; that's Warwick, Imperial and LSHTM that have published on the projections. All projections are assumption-heavy and based on "known knows"; fractions vaccinated, decent guesses at protection levels, spread, hospitalisation rate by age, death rate by age, a little on seasonality. But they miss things like a new SA variant arriving and having significant inroads and changes in case management. The models project a bump, likely around September, some as high as January. But in truth, as the people generating them will attest, they are educated and numerate guesses against which policy decisions can be taken.
For a crude estimate, assume say 20M susceptible, about half could catch the infection over the remainder of the year and perhaps a mortality rate of 1/10,000 would lead to perhaps 1000 deaths in total in the younger age group. Likely we could see more deaths in this younger generation, but these are very rough estimates and vaccination will roll down to these groups before September anyway.
If I had to bet, I would say cases will rise from the low, flattening levels we see now, but we will not see admissions anything like the peak over the winter. Stable deaths of less than 30/day against a background of unlocking would be good news. The ONS and REACT prevalence studies will inform on likely trends. Stability (endemic) would be what one wants to see, because at the moment all we have seen is exponential up and exponential down - vaccination should impart more equilibrium assuming loss of immunity is not too rapid and strains are not replaced.
[TL:DR] Model projections are educated guesses, they predict that unlocking will see an increase in cases, admissions and deaths but likely less than the winter peak. They are a guide to informed policy making, no more. They will be wrong because things change.
Will vaccines be modified in time for this coming winter?
Production is being readied on the assumption that they will be. There’s no guarantee that they will be, but it’s welcome that preparations are being made well in advance in the event that they are. Of course, depending on trials, it’s could be that simply boosting using a different but existing vaccine this winter will help give better protection to the most at risk. Modified vaccines may not even be necessary.
Will vaccines be modified in time for this coming winter?
The Vaccine centre the Mrs works in is gearing up for 3rd round booster jabs for Oct, I wouldn't have a clue if they'll be different and not everything they plan for comes to pass.
The feeling amongst the staff is that everything is going to evolve into a far more permanent thing they've taken on a huge retail unit, far bigger than the couple of sites they've got in community centres now etc, they seem to think the test centre is going to move there too as some point, it'll have to move fairly soon, it's in the car park of the local.
They're also recruiting for permanent staff, they were willing to take anyone who was qualified when they opened for obvious reasons, but having a bunch of higher band nurses, pharmacists and doctors doing a job of a fairly modest paid worker on their usual salaries isn't very efficient.
Anyway, rambling post short, covid vaccines are possibly going to be a part of our lives for a few years at least.
I have empathy for those whose businesses have been destroyed
Some of those were caught out by 'being clever' gaming the tax system in previous years and were not eligible for government support as a result. It's the usual what works for the next 12 months business planning rather than what could happen and what would be a prudent means of managing that risk?
ie Long-term planning, it's not sexy and doesn't yield large numbers but it does ensure that the company/job is still there when the ordure hits the air-conditioning. We had an earlier warning with bird-flu and SARS that was ignored.
With regards to what constitutes outside hospitality they could have just copied whatever the wording is in the legislation on smoking in enclosed spaces.
So, watching the news coverage, if you are sat outside a pub with 5 friends, you no longer have to socially distance even if they are not in your household/support bubble?
So, watching the news coverage, if you are sat outside a pub with 5 friends, you no longer have to socially distance even if they are not in your household/support bubble?
No, that's incorrect, but probably being ignored and because it's all "irreversible" I suspect will continue to be ignored.
I've just had to go into work to sort out a laptop replacement for some one whose lock down puppy has eaten his this weekend.
Driving through town and the outside of the pubs were heaving. It's like a sunny Bank Holiday
Was it ever going to be any other way when reopening pubs? It's a glorious day as well. I'll be having a can in the garden at 5pm myself. Not everyone has a garden of course.
No, that’s incorrect, but probably being ignored
So same as last summer, loads of media coverage of people in pubs (or wherever) breaching the social distancing guidelines but being made to appear correct, unchallenged, etc?
🤦♂️
I don't see there being any more big waves, even in cases let alone deaths. The official models all make rather pessimistic assumptions for their central cases. We're well over 50% immunity, far higher than that in the most vulnerable groups, and peoples' behaviour has changed for the long term in terms of reducing contact. Especially with summer coming and people only gradually starting to mix more indoors, I'm confident that vaccination is going to stay ahead of the curve. (NB mixing outdoors is basically safe anyway, so party on, in the parks and on the beach.)
The only major caveat is if a new variety comes along that escapes the vaccines. There's been lots of talk but little evidence of this. Maybe it's possible, but an entirely new an unrelated pandemic is possible anyway. Who knows which bat will sneeze on a pangolin next?
How agile is vaccine development and production likely to be? Will it be able to match what us usually achieved with Flu vaccines?
I'm expecting to repeat vaccination every 1 or 2 years depending on how long it lasts, but will that 2nd round be likely be the same generation or not.
Admittedly that might be a bit of an unknown. But considering the pace of the initial phase of development it seems feasible without knowing the manufacturing complexities.
We’re well over 50% immunity
Define immunity. We're at well over 50% of the public having good protection from serious illness. Transmission is a different matter. We're in a much stronger position coming out of this lockdown than other ones. The worry some have, it seems, is that as people know this, they will take less care, and behaviour changes could cancel out some of the advantages gained from vaccinations and previous infections. I'm feeling more positive... but only time will tell.
How agile is vaccine development and production likely to be? Will it be able to match what us usually achieved with Flu vaccines?
Likely a step change from first innovators. The first COVID challenge study is underway by hvivo (at Imperial College). This has been set up as a mainstay efficacy model for vaccines. But approval based on antibody titer for small changes may also be possible. Big, placebo controlled trials of 10,000 people are unlikely for small genetic changes.
https://hvivo.com/the-human-challenge-programme/
ElShalimo
Full MemberThe extra 100k above is framed as those deemed too old or too sick for us to care about
it's so insidious this, there's obviously people who've pushed it as a message, and there's some that seem to believe it's true, and I'm sure there's lots that find it easier to live with covid by thinking that if you're not already ill you're safer...
But if I died of it, I'd count as having a "pre-existing medical complaint". I'm 42, I'm fit, in better shape than most people my age, none of my medical conditions place me in any risk normally but these people would file me straight under "doesn't really count". It's bloody absurd tbh and offensive and I'd like to track down all the people that have used it as useful lie and boot them in the nuts.
The doublethink is bizarre too. Like, the people who've been targeted for the vaccine so far are all groups that are considered more at risk. Every single one of us would be in the group that gets dismissed by these scumbags as not really counting as a proper death, and it's basically half of the population.
I don’t see there being any more big waves, even in cases let alone deaths. The official models all make rather pessimistic assumptions for their central cases. We’re well over 50% immunity, far higher than that in the most vulnerable groups, and peoples’ behaviour has changed for the long term in terms of reducing contact. Especially with summer coming and people only gradually starting to mix more indoors, I’m confident that vaccination is going to stay ahead of the curve. (NB mixing outdoors is basically safe anyway, so party on, in the parks and on the beach.)
I fancy offering my best layman's guess like everyone else.
I'm delighted how well the Vaccine roll-out is going, even with the big reduction in supply this month, it's going quicker than pretty much anyone hoped back in Jan, including me and I'm a pretty optimistic person. Here we moved to the 45-49 age group and within days the 40-44 age group was included. We've at least offered a first jab to the 99% of people who were likely to end up in hospital if they got covid.
I'm also delighted the uptake has also been much higher than most people hoped, especially in the highest risk groups, well over 90% in most of them.
And, whilst it was only ever a good bet, and there's no firm data yet, it seems the vaccine does a good job of reducing transmission too, the rate in which infection rates are falling and continue to fall, especially here in Wales is remarkable. We have 7 local authority areas which have reported ZERO new infections in the last week.
Back in Jan, based on nothing but my muggles guess an reading my Wife's daily NHS trust briefing I said/hoped the healthcare crisis would be over by Easter, by that I meant that Hospitals would be easily able to cope with Covid patients and they are, and deaths would be very low, which they are. The numbers of people in Hospital in Wales with Covid is falling and also the number of people in Hospital BECAUSE of Covid is falling too. I'm not bragging, I'm relieved.
It seems pretty crazy, but within the next 9 weeks (I think) we could see the end of all Covid restrictions, no masks, no social distancing, nothing, just 'normal life' there's some debate over that, but that's the crux of it.
There are risks, new strains, or even established ones like the SA which the AZ vaccine doesn't work so well with.
My worry though is the younger population, the 40-50 age group are expected to have a much lower up-take in Vaccines, I know of the 15 or so people in my riding whatsapp group which is a pretty decent cross-section of society, but most in that age group, I know of at least 2 of us who'll refuse it. In the Under 40s it likely to be much lower again.
I suspect a massive spike in infections in the under 40s when social restrictions end, we've seen so many scenes on TV of people in their 20s who can't help but 'party' any time they can, frankly I'm not sure I'd have been any better at that age, in fact, I know I'd be one of the worst. It's perhaps no bad thing, there's no eradicating Covid now I think, we're all going to have to build up antibodies one way or another, but it will spread to older people who either the vaccine doesn't work for, or chose not to have it. Death of course is a normal part of life, but it's one of those uncomfortable truths, I don't think there is enough public support to keep restrictions in place until we've vaccinated everyone over 12 (is that the new cut off?) in the UK, so we just have to hope we don't get too many new strains.
We’ve at least offered a first jab to the 99% of people who were likely to end up in hospital if they got covid.
We really haven't...(data from October 12, 2020)
Admissions 0-54 56,446
Admissions 55+ 192,502
Over 80% most likely (since those with additional risk factors <50 have been offered vaccine, but not 99% by any means. A lot of healthy young people have been going to hospital. And coming home. I'm (just) in the first group 🙂
So, watching the news coverage, if you are sat outside a pub with 5 friends, you no longer have to socially distance even if they are not in your household/support bubble?
You've never *had* to socially distance. It's always just been advice. Businesses could have in theory been forced to close for breaching health and safety rules though.
Are people really thinking that by June we will not be social distancing and wearing masks in shops?
Even if we get up to very high vaccination levels, the vaccine is not 100% effective and also doesn't 100% stop transmission.
I can see us wearing make for a fair bit longer. Also hopefully it will stop some of the annoying colds that come around at work too
Are people really thinking that by June we will not be social distancing and wearing masks in shops?
Even if we get up to very high vaccination levels, the vaccine is not 100% effective and also doesn’t 100% stop transmission.
I can see us wearing make for a fair bit longer. Also hopefully it will stop some of the annoying colds that come around at work too
I think I'll be masking and avoiding large crowds for a while, I must admit, mainly for selfish reasons.
Same here. Mostly because this area continued to be a hotspot between lockdowns, and still is. If I lived elsewhere I might have a different attitude about this summer. Also, having a type 1 diabetic son means continued caution while we wait for Pfizer to be approved for teens. Will be beer-gardening though the summer... I'll be outside with the smokers and sun worshippers... and won't be moaning about it. God I've missed pubs.
Another person I know killed themselves this weekend. That's 5 since lockdowns started.
Normally it's about 1 a year or less
Any suicide is one too many but the rate has not increased throughout the pandemic according to research by the BMJ
Where I stay there’s sadly been two in the last month, one was a 70+ woman with mild dementia and bi polar syndrome who walked into the river a few weeks ago, her body was recently found round the coastline and the 2nd was someone I know (fisherman 36) who overdosed,he hadn’t been able to earn or export his catch since last year and couldn’t pay his mortgage or loan on his boat
We really haven’t…(data from October 12, 2020)
Admissions 0-54 56,446
Admissions 55+ 192,502Over 80% most likely (since those with additional risk factors <50 have been offered vaccine, but not 99% by any means. A lot of healthy young people have been going to hospital. And coming home. I’m (just) in the first group 🙂
I suspect he meant those that are in the top 9 cohorts that make up 99% of deaths, not hospitalisations.
I'm going to be wearing a mask for some time i think.
Sorry to hear about another suicide, the mental health costs of the pandemic will be huge. I'm just grateful that my issues last year were not depressive so nothing happened
Any suicide is one too many but the rate has not increased throughout the pandemic according to research by the BMJ
I did a mental health for managers course at work last year, and this sort of stat was also quoted. However, the trainer was cautious that the real effects will not be seen until some time after; at the moment we are looking out for those friends and colleagues we worry about, we have campaigns and support, financial support for those that need it (yes, not enough and not everyone that needs it gets helped) and so on. It's when the majority go back to normal leaving a some behind that she worries that the impact will be felt.
Sorry about your friend YGH
Very sad to hear your news YGH
Slight departure from the discussion (wasn't sure if it warranted a new thread or not)...
Has anyone's employer provided the rapid test kits for their staff? Just wondering how well it's gone, what the take-up has been etc
I've got a small business and have ordered some, I think it's a great idea provided it's widely used across as many companies as possible. I imagine our staff being very willing to do them (initially at least). hopefully other companies will follow suit...
One of my work buddies Dad died from COVID-19 at the weekend, he was 88 with COPD - he'd refused the vaccine as he lived alone and didn't feel he was at risk, he'd told his doctor that his jab should be given to someone who needed it more.
My buddy was with his Dad when he died - and has now tested positive, despite being jabbed a month ago.
His household now need to isolate for 10 days whilst trying to sort out the death of a loved one.
A timely reminder that this is still not over - despite Primark and the pubs now reopening.
According to Boris Johnson, all over 50's in the UK have now been offered a vaccine. Not in my experience they haven't!
NHS website now accepting vaccination bookings for 45-50 y/o. Just booked my wife in for Thursday 15 Apr & 2 July
How did you book? Still saying 50 here:
Boomer Lives Matter!
It remains slightly disappointing that we seem to have to dispel the whole 'Great Barrington Delusion' every twenty pages or so, but can someone at least sort out the Broken Page Link Declaration of a few pages ago?
#iamnotaboomer
#someofmybestfriendsareboomers
#killallboomers
It let me book anyway (47).
Another over 50 who can’t book (posted earlier)
However I have just booked, or rather have been given the option to book.
I downloaded the NHS app and linked my NHS number and surgery which took 5 min and involved taking a pic of my passport and some weird FP flashing face scan.
This seems to have solved the issues of being unable to book despite trying every day and calling 3 times.
So if you are eligible/over 50 try the app (not the track and trace one)
But I didn’t book as I found out they are doing walk-ins at various vaccine hubs in my health area (SE London) so I’m off to Guys/St Thomas’s in the morning as that’s a day earlier than a booked appointment with the app. (Or a Lidl was another option?!)
So try your local health area website as they may do walk-ins for over 50’s with no appointment.
I think people are referring to the NHS England booking system. I'm in Scotland (Highlands). The system he is that vaccinations are given by the local GP Practice. They contract their patients in order, as they are allocated supplies. They are vaccinating some over 50's today, but do not have doses for all. As I'm 52, going on 53, they must be well short of having enough doses for the over 50's. I'm sure I'm far from alone.
So is Boris mis-informed, lying, or confused about the difference between England and the UK?
Vaccination data for Scotland
Locally I know they're now doing some 40+ year olds when they have enough doses.
I just booked my vaccination online, in the 45-49 age group in Bristol.
Managed to book late last night for the 45-49 group. Went for the madjeski stadium in Reading and just read they’ll be one of the places giving the Moderna jab so fingers crossed. Jab in a couple of hours.
47, had my first OxAZ jab yesterday after work and now feeling pretty rough with side effects that feel like flu.
Got text from my GP practice two weeks ago for it, did wonder at time if I'd got jab sooner than expected because of my better half's bad immunological response that started with Covid almost 13 months ago and turned into nasty Long Covid. She's had ~7 months signed off sick now from her NHS role, not been in since Xmas.