The Coronavirus Discussion Thread.

I’m 56 and Mrs DB 54 – not a sniff of a vaccination letter, locally looks like Grampian Health are well behind the curve and we have a big spike in local cases. Now they’re saying mid-April to be notified, so might not get it before the end of the month.

Are you Aberdeenshire or Moray? Either way, vaccine delivery seems to be about average. Of course, they're now having to concentrate on 2nd doses a lot more so 1st dose rate is falling.

@nickingsley

But despite having funded the OU
and Jenner research over many, many years we will not see the benefit in terms of £bn’s funding in the UK for:
– further research in to new covid strains
– research in to other drugs/treatments e.g. long covid, ……
– the big hope that was The Francis Crick Institute
– supporting the rebuilding the UK’s vaccine/medicines production capacity

especially as the UK now has staggering debts and is starting to line up some very painful funding cuts.

First off, you mean Oxford rather than OU? (OU is usually the Open University)

AZ also received over $1bn in forward funding from the American government

J&J also seelling at cost

AZ have also said they'll only sell at cost as long as pandemic lasts (AZ Brazil contract said they may increase pieces from July 21)

Covid is here to stay and its excellent that they sold out at cost, especially for poorer nations, but AZ will expect a return eventually

I'm massively confused by your comments on the Crick institute, what where you hoping for?? It's a hugely successful research institute, primarily focused on Cancer, tho that's a funding bias issue really.

EU Funding invested in the technology Biontech vaccine uses, and again into the vaccine development last summer.
The Pfizer vaccine that gave the UK & Israel it's headstart in vaccination exists because of EU & German funding (hence why germans are so pissed)

I think you are completely misunderstanding how science investment works
The UK has hugely underfunded scientific research (1.5% GDP) relative to other countries for years, (well below EU - 2.2% & USA -2.7% ) UK gov has let EU horizon fund 20% of UK funding, where we were biggest net recipients in EU

We did well to invest early in covid vaccines manufacturer but, the fact that Oxford vaccine worked was luck to an extent, the EU bet heavily on the vaccine being developed by the French government funded Pasteur institute (possibly for political reasons, tho it was the frontrunner at one point)
Vaccine development is a lottery in some respects it could easily have been the Ox vaccine that failed & Pasteur/Sanofi that worked (tho UK had preliminary booked those doses too)

The UK has been coasting on its science investment for years, indeed letting the EU take up the slack

Johnsons recently announced cuts to UKRIs look to mean its only going to get worse soon

Also the jenner institute was closed a few years ago, the Jenner Vaccine Foundation is now charity funded

^ some useful points there, thank you.

The UK has hugely underfunded scientific research (1.5% GDP) relative to other countries for years, (well below EU – 2.2% & USA -2.7% ) UK gov has let EU horizon fund 20% of UK funding, where we were biggest net recipients in EU

and the potential £bn’s from OU/AZ wouldn’t have helped fill the up and coming gaps in funding gaps in medical research, manufacturing capacity, .....

Not really, our funding gap/economic hit is waaaay bigger than any vaccine profits, I doubt they'd dent it

AZ have done a great thing offering it at cist, but as I said they plan to raise prices once pandemic is over, it will be a cash cow for them getting your annual covid jab (soirrot is a savvy CEO & has tyrned AZ around)

I'm not even sure how much world have gone back to Oxford? The majority will go to AZ, which is an Anglo- Swedish company
This is their first vaccine & I assume they will be moving more into vaccines if the back of this

But you don't invest in science & research just for immediate cashback

The paybacks are bigger than that, in this case being able to open up economy sooner dwarfs vaccine income

Saw the value of £14.5bn put on this recently and, perhaps naively, thought it would go a long way to help future UK medical research/production capacity. From the above post, it would appear not.

AZ Vaccine - was it really worth it?

Exactly AZs profits will be there's

Not the UK governments

AZ have been unfairly treated considering all they've done, but their trials didn't go smoothly, dosing errors and messing up age groups in their trials + announcing results by Press conference rather than published data haven't helped their case.

Even if its their first vaccine, its hardly their first drug trial, its not even their first biological - they make antibody drugs for cancer - so they really should have that part covered, and been aware that yields from biologicals are not guaranteed

I hadn’t appreciated that a drug developer and a manufacturer were restricted to contracts that either said not for profit or all profit to the manufacturer only.

Thought J M Barrie, to name but one, and many many others had appreciated that great medical benefit can be derived from lots of small amounts of money rolled up in to a larger sum ....

UDL has been noticeably quiet recently, wonder what they’re plotting?

Hopefully busy in constructive negotiations with the UK and others on the way forwards 🤞

The initial ox/az trials were initiated and run by the University which is potentially why there were some challenges with age group representation.

Yeah I assume they were recruiting younger age groups, before higher risk older patients, I think every doctor I know was part of one trial or another.

I hadn’t appreciated that a drug developer and a manufacturer were restricted to contracts that either said not for profit or all profit to the manufacturer only.

I'm sure Ox will get some royalties on the vaccine when the non profit cap is lifted, but that's not going to change future funding of research, that has to come from government policy

Sadly.... https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/devastating-cuts-to-uk-research-and-innovation-funding-for-science-m638l6zh3

And even then, what's the covid bill so far? £40bn on Test & trace, £100bn furlough, £12bn on PPE etc, etc,.... Vaccine sales won't effect that much.!

and the potential £bn’s from OU/AZ wouldn’t have helped fill the up and coming gaps in funding gaps in medical research, manufacturing capacity, …..

That’s not really how it works. Academia and charities may fund original research, but when it comes to delivering medicines, society has decided that it is the private sector that does this best. Oxford set up and ran some relatively small vaccine trials that were deemed adequate by the U.K. and EMA but not even considered suitable for approval for the US (too small and no elderly, no placebo in Brazil...).

Instead licensing of IP to pharma is the normal route. With royalties paid in return. You might like to look at the history of adalimumab (Humira) which became the worlds best selling drug. This was licensed from the MRC and they received significant returns and eventually settled on a lump sum for future royalties. The university failed to patent monoclonal antibodies, which was a significant error financially.

https://sciencebusiness.net/news/74205/Intellectual-Property%3A-payday-for-the-Medical-Research-Council

Oxford insisted on certain conditions for license. Personally I think another manufacturer with an established track record in production of vaccines would have been a better call (disclaimer I work for GSK but not in vaccines), and they almost went to Merck. The adenovirus technology is now mature and is exactly the same in the J&J vaccine.

Vaccines are not normally a huge earner (high volumes and low margins), but the high usage for a first wave for this new pathogen will see significant returns for Pfizer, Moderna and eventually Novovax (who have never delivered a product). Price is largely predicated on past subsidy by governments for the trials (Operation Warp Speed was really pay up front and at risk and Pfizer didn’t take the money so can charge more now). Then In a few years things will settle down. And AZ will charge market rate for markets that will bare the cost. Also prices are not the same in every market. The West hugely subsidises costs to developing nations in vaccines and medicines. Which is no bad thing. In fact the US market subsidises access to Europe.

^ that’s how it works, OK, but couldn’t it have been different? Did OU get it right? Can it be changed .. probably too late now.
Other things did change significantly in these challenging times, lockdowns, significant testing regime, furlough, the vaccine task force, perhaps even vaccine passports, ....
Not going to comment on Track & Trace, PPE procurement, ...

Still think £14.5bn is a substantial sum of money representing a considerable lost investment in uk medical research/vaccine production facilities.

Anyway, think that ship has sailed.

The blood clot story just keeps on running. Is this just the press, or are we going to have to stop using the AZ jab? What are the likely factors increasing risks in younger women?

(Ive had 2 doses of AZ)

^ or target the OU/AZ vaccine to/away from certain groups?

The blood clot story just keeps on running. Is this just the press, or are we going to have to stop using the AZ jab? What are the likely factors increasing risks in younger women?

(Ive had 2 doses of AZ)

The press are running the stories as they appeal to their AntiVaxx readers and the sceptics so it's stirring things up. At the end of the day every single medicine/vaccine/drug has side-effects, it's up to us to decide whether the risks of those appearing in patients is worth it or not. If it was dangerous and causing widespread blood clot issues then that would be showing up in the general population by now but it isn't, just a few cases per million doses given. They are right to make sure it is being monitored closely, which the medical profession will be doing anyway, but they are adding a lot of unnecessary and unhelpful hyperbole to the story right now.

Thats kind of where Im at. We had a conversation at home last night about this, and how the risks/numbers for common drugs such as paracetamol and the pill just aren't talked about.

If you have a look at the mhra yellow card summaries (yellow card is the side effect reporting mechanism) as of last week there were ~420 deaths following the az vaccine (note not attributed to the vaccine but soon after having it, and ~280 from the pfizer one.
That is in total not from that week.
Hardly earth shaking numbers considering the total vaccinations given.
The summary breaks down the adverse events more that just fatalities too
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-vaccine-adverse-reactions

^ or target the OU/AZ vaccine to/away from certain groups?

Apologies, post withdrawn as beyond my competence level.

So far this morning I've had to suffer through:

* Masks contain toxic chemicals and are poisoning everyone who uses them.
* Covid vaccination is pointless because we're still under lockdown.
* The company health insurance won't cover us if the vaccination has side-effects down the road.
* Antibodies from the original bat-flavoured variant of Covid-19 are better than those from the vaccine.
* Human intervention strategies have zero effect on the spread.
* Expecting people to take a "phase 3 trial drug" to protect others is "completely unreasonable".
* Covid-19 grows and spreads in gut bacteria, but the research is being covered up.
* Covid-19 is seasonal (*cough* Brazil *cough*).

I'm so tempted to argue but know I'd just end up being buried under a deluge of copy-and-paste stats and paragraphs from one of the millions of mad websites run by crackpots. And saying something I might regret which is maybe the bigger problem. 🤣

So far this morning I’ve had to suffer through:

I know how you feel - Derbyshire County Council is running a good FB campaign about fake info, but it attracts the nutters like shit attracts flies. If you challenge their links to false info, their supporters pile in with more links to false info, and then it's just 5 minutes "report post", "report post"....

Good lord, I just took a look at Derbyshire CC on Facebook,  theres some pretty fundamental misunderstandings of.... well....  pretty much everything.

not specifically to Covid; I used to work in sunscreen chemicals. And we used to say - anyone with an opinion and an internet connection can do great harm to the public understanding, as i/ the public have little to no comprehension of the validity of sources, and take all info on the same merits; ii/ you can't argue against with the data and facts because 'well you would say that, wouldn't you'

So you can pretty well say whatever you want, based on a spurious / misunderstood interpretation that suits your ends and rebuff any challenge by claiming that it's propaganda or a cover up or whatever.

This blood clot thing. Yes, it needs looking at and understanding. But by my reckoning, and based on the numbers on the news sites

18,100,000 have had the AZ vaccine

18,099,970 didn't get any blood clots

and  18,099,993 haven't died as a result of blood clots.

Did OU get it right?

Well you didn't get it right, it's Ox/Az not OU.

FYI.

Good lord, I just took a look at Derbyshire CC on Facebook, theres some pretty fundamental misunderstandings of…. well…. pretty much everything.

Wait till they start posting about gritting when it gets colder next week.....

Derbyshire CC on Facebook, theres some pretty fundamental misunderstandings of…. well…. pretty much everything.

Derbyshire born Derbyshire bred,
Strong in arm, thick in 'ead.

Apologies to the more enlightened inhabitants of my favourite neighbouring county.

@flaperon... I still haven’t come to terms with being told that the vaccine science isn’t ‘gold standard’ in the same message as being enjoined to ‘look after my own health and keep my body alkaline’. I just don’t know where to begin to start...

I’m so tempted to argue but know I’d just end up being buried under a deluge of copy-and-paste stats and paragraphs from one of the millions of mad websites run by crackpots. And saying something I might regret which is maybe the bigger problem. 🤣

There's a mildly astonishing story that just twelve people are responsible for two thirds of anti covid-vaccine propaganda - of course that, itself, may be misleading, but the BBC published it. It's astonishing how the internet has changed the world in just two decades:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-56536390

This in the grand scheme of things is tiny, but I've decided stop shopping at our local fruit and veg shop (I've been using it for 20 years). The lady that runs this greengrocers hates wearing a mask and the visor is a nuisance and mucks up her hair. Her obese assistant has decided it's her 'right' not to have the vaccine (I can't argue with that). There isn't any hand sanitiser in our outside either.
They both serve 100's of customers a day many of whom are in the older age bracket.
I'm not the only one in our area who's come to this decision.

In some respects it's a shame Covid hasn't been more deadly and allowed Darwinianism to have a greater hold, except there would have been a hell of a lot more innocent collateral damage as well.
Getting in a car is much riskier than the vaccine, being obese has many more side effects. The public can not cope with real in you face threats so gloss over them but love a good scare story because deep down they know it's not likely to affect them.

love a good scare story because deep down they know it’s not likely to affect them.

Current research into the clotting with O/Az vaccine show unusually low blood platelet levels associated with the forming of clots in the cerebral venous sinuses.
That’s exactly what happened to my partner two weeks after she had her C19 vaccination.
https://cosmosmagazine.com/health/medicine/an-update-on-astrazeneca-and-blood-clots/

Concerns about the AstraZeneca vaccine were raised when cases of cerebral venous sinus thrombosis (blood clots that form in the brain’s venous sinuses) associated with thrombocytopenia (low platelet count) were recorded in Europe last week.

The German-led research group discovered that the AstraZeneca jab might lead to the formation of antibodies against platelet antigens as part of the inflammatory reaction and immune stimulation. Those antibodies destroy the platelets. But at the same time, they induce a massive platelet activation that causes severe thrombosis.

“Even though you’ve got a low platelet count, which is normally associated with bleeding, the patient gets severe and aggressive thrombosis,” explains Professor Paul Monagle, a haematologist at the University of Melbourne.

This phenomenon is sometimes observed in people who take heparin – a blood thinner – to control blood clotting. “Normally, heparin-induced thrombocytopenia occurs when patients are exposed to heparin,” says Monagle. He says that about 5% of adults on heparin develop antibodies against the platelet factor 4 (PF4): a protein on the platelet’s surface.

The researchers investigated 13 cases of cerebral vein thrombosis that occurred 4–16 days after vaccination with the AstraZeneca vaccine in 12 women and one man, aged between 20 and 63. None of them was taking heparin or other anticoagulants.

Given the immunological genesis of this “vaccine-induced prothrombotic immune thrombocytopenia” (VIPIT), the researchers suggested that patients with a history of thrombosis might not be at increased risk of suffering this rare vaccine complication.

Although the latest data indicate that the condition may be less rare than previously thought, the incidence remains at about one case every 100,000–200,000 doses. Rare enough not to be caught in clinical trials, which included a total of about 40,000 participants.

CountZero - I am so very sorry to hear this news.
Big virtual hugs.
bunnyhop x

The blood clot story just keeps on running. Is this just the press, or are we going to have to stop using the AZ jab? What are the likely factors increasing risks in younger women?

I don't know anything about increased risk to younger women from the vaccine but apparently the pill and pregnancy both increase the risk of cerebral venous sinus thrombosis.

As I understand it, the risk of clots from the pill is greater than the incidence of clots from the AZ vaccine?

Tragic for the rare individuals affected, but needs keeping in perspective.

I'm sorry to see that CZ, when I saw your post about your partners death that was actually my first thought, but didn't want to say anything.

Incredibly tough going for you and family, age about it being kept in perspective vs benefit of vaccination, but terrible for you.

What do we think the likely hood is that they have got the numbers of people suffering blood clots from the az vaccine wrong?

I'm a pretty rational/logical person, but I personally know one person who has suffered a blood clot after having the vaccine (they are fine). I know that someone will have to know someone who has suffered a blood clot after the vaccine, but it seems to me that it's more likely their numbers are wrong than the likely hood of me knowing one of the 30 in 18 million that have had a clot after the vaccine.

but it seems to me that it’s more likely their numbers are wrong

Or that you just happen to know one of the registered events.

Or that you just happen to know one of the registered events.

I get that, and I know someone has to know one of the 30 that have had a clot, just seems very surprising that's its me.

Might buy a lottery ticket for the first time.