roach
Full Member
I’ve been popping into this thread over the last year and find it really taxing what with all the media too. I honestly don’t know how some of you guys can stay here obsessing over all the details on a daily basis for over a year!
I completely get where you are coming from. I'll be honest though, this thread has helped me through the last 12 months. It goes off topic a little at times but I'd have honestly been groping around in the dark for decent information without it.
It's shocking to think that a lot of people don't watch the news anymore and have read the papers or used FB etc for all their "information". Can you imagine?
It's terrifying to even think about.
And just look at the timescales... if things go to plan we will be back inside pubs in 54 days. Does anyone think this government can set up a water-tight 'vaccine passport' scheme in 54 days?
As for the politics, notably the vaccine noise, this is just that, posturing noise by politicians.
That noise isn’t just postering though, it is a potential ramping up of protectionism, which could have long term negative effects for us all. Bound to be a key part of discussions here.
Anyway, this report this evening was quite good:
https://twitter.com/bbcrosatkins/status/1374830047480184841?s=21
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I thought the plan was to be ‘back to normal’ from June 22nd – no masks, no social distancing, no other restrictions
I don’t think so. The plan is that at some point no earlier than June 22nd all legal controls are to be removed. You’re likely to still encounter requests to wear a mask, keep your distance, and face other restrictions at work and play. They won’t be enforced by law though.
Johnson wasn’t talking about any legal requirements as regards “passports” in the reporting I saw, he was proposing that some venues might want to ask for them as condition of entry. It might be the best way for a proprietor to encourage attendance, making the venue seem safer and putting attendees at ease.
it is a potential ramping up of protectionism
Come back in another 12 months 😉 . We've gone from zero to multiple available options in 12 months. Think what another 12 will deliver. Provided we don't see a significant antigenic shift, and I am not convinced yet, then we're catching up with seasonal and endemic pretty quickly. The world needs vaccinating. The EU arguments over who is going to be first is just noise, there are bigger challenges, but this is really just a "rush to normal". Normal comes when all are protected from serious disease and force of infection is kept low by immunity (ideally from vaccination rather than natural).
There will be a lot more caution this summer. I was looking forward to another eat out to catch covid.
Yes, but that new normal could see all vaccine producing counties holding back supplies of future vaccines, rather than them being exported to and rolled out in other counties that approve them sooner. The USA approach becoming widespread, if you like. Not something I want to see, and ultimately damaging for all… but could become politically unavoidable for the leaders of those countries.
I was looking forward to another eat out to catch covid.
It’s the summer. Eat outdoors. We didn’t eat out inside last summer, and won’t do this summer either.
The us approach hasn’t actually been that bad. They paid a huge amount to run the trials of the new vaccines via OWS. The return on that (which could have been nil) is first access to Moderna and J&J. Pfizer ran their own trial and are charging more accordingly. But then global supply will kick in. AZ isn’t yet submitted let alone approved despite being made at risk and sitting waiting. It will be.
Anyway day four post AZ injection and the body has definitively made some spike protein. Felt sick all day in a “glad I have an immune response” kind of way.
Felt sick all day in a “glad I have an immune response” kind of way.
@TiRed, so no reaction to the jab not so good then?
😬
Interested in where that quote from “a year ago” came from, anyone who estimated 5-7 day doubling was badly wrong from at least early March onwards and this is a large part of why the UK response was so disastrous.
In pubs you did have to do social distancing (quite welcome in some cases), now you can not bother if you've had the jab, but it's up to the landlord as to whether you require 'proof that you are not infectious', it's voluntary (I had absolutely no idea the pub landlords were also a public health specialists, when they choose. Are they also now part of the NHS?).
Can you prove that you are not infectious? Is this was is meant by 'health security'?
A game of soldiers, the act of sexual congress, I'm (not) out.
so no reaction to the jab not so good then?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-56375307
“ Selfishly, I had hoped that having side effects meant I had an incredibly strong immune response and there has been some evidence from previous vaccines that this would be the case.
"There are examples, like pandemic flu in 2009, where stronger side effects meant a strong immune response," said Prof Pollard.
But that is not the case with the Covid vaccine, everyone is getting roughly the same protection.
"It's fascinating, even though the elderly had few side effects, they had exactly the same immune response."
The explanation comes from how the two halves of the immune system work together.
The first is called the innate response and includes that chemical fire alarm. The other half is the adaptive response which learns and then remembers how to fight an infection by designing B-cells that produce antibodies to seek out and destroy the virus, as well as T-cells which can attack any of the body's cells which have been infected.
Prof Riley said: "It's this early innate phase of the immune response that varies with age and varies amongst people and that's what determines the strength of your side effects.
"You only need a little bit of that innate response to wake up the adaptive response and get that full panoply of B-cells and T-cells that will protect you."
^
Thanks for that.
Just heard that my boss is off on indefinite sick leave for long COVID. He caught it about this time last year, had a bad time (hospitalised and ventilated) but started to come back to work last September. He seemed OK, was working normal days remotely, starting to go on long walks again.
Take care everyone.
@TiRed, so no reaction to the jab not so good then?
No evidence of that. As noted. I felt worse with the influenza vaccine. And feeling better today. I often have such a reaction when feeling a bit wuff.
Interested in where that quote from “a year ago” came from, anyone who estimated 5-7 day doubling was badly wrong from at least early March
Have to agree with that. Wish I'd looked a week earlier now, but it was the acceleration of deaths from cases that was notable. Not sure how much would have changed with a week less data.
Ignoring the obvious thing that talk of vaccine passports for pubs is presumably some kind of odd PR from the Tory party the hide something else...
Why are they talking about passports for pubs but not passports for non-essential retail? From an uneducated perspective both seem to be similar risk profile (pubs/hospitality seem lower to me maybe?).
I'm still adamant that someone in the hospitality industry has upset Johnson somehow.
Gove said it was being looked into for lots of uses, including retail. All the current noise is because Johnson was asked about pubs. I’m not expecting anything to come of it to be honest, except for holidays and festivals.
I don't often come into close proximity with drunk people with no self control in non essential retail settings. Even in Ilkeston. I thought the difference in risk would be clear.
Local pub has said they won't be asking to see vaccine passports. Partly as the owners are relatively young and their staff even younger, so won't be getting jabs or passports themselves till late on.
I don’t often come into close proximity with drunk people with no self control in non essential retail settings.
I see plenty of close proximity in retail, loads of it even now. They may not be drunk but they're not at distance.
There's an assumption that everyone who goes to pubs and restaurants gets drunk, that's patently not the case, anyone who thinks this either spends time in the wrong pubs or just doesn't go to them. The vast majority of people just want to sit with friends, have a beer and a chat, something they've not been able to do for some time.
BillMC
Full MemberIn pubs you did have to do social distancing (quite welcome in some cases), now you can not bother if you’ve had the jab, but it’s up to the landlord as to whether you require ‘proof that you are not infectious’, it’s voluntary (I had absolutely no idea the pub landlords were also a public health specialists, when they choose. Are they also now part of the NHS?).
And of course it's "voluntary" but your pub's earnings potential is massively more if you don't do the distancing. And more so in a market where some pubs are back to being a scrum and others aren't (personally I rather liked the socially distanced, book your table pub experience but then I am old)
Pushing responsibility onto civilians is a favourite scam of this government. Employment and immigration, Prevent, stuff like that. And of course it's what happens when you hack away at inspecorates, building inspections, etc. My brother works in events and the responsibility for public safety with covid is being pushed onto theatre managers not just to enforce laws but also to make decisions. Same in my sector, event risk decisions are being positioned as the job of the "local experts" ie the people whose job it is to run a school visit, but who have no real experience or skill in risk assessment and management other than the most basic/obvious.
When it goes wrong "alas" it was those nasty pubs and theatres that were breaking the rules, not the government's fault, just like when buildings burn down and it turns out the walls were made out of firelighters.
So it sounds like a terrible idea but don't assume that means they don't think it's genius.
You know, I keep telling myself that I don't know how many people have Flu in the UK hence its of no consequence to me, but I can't help worry that I can see a rise on coronavirus numbers today, even though that should mean not much with kids non-issues & vaccines...
...I'm still nervous of it in general, an potential long Covid for the kids 🙁
> fingers in ears <
At what point should we stop caring about the r number and the number of infections generally because of the number of people who have been vaccinated?
I suppose its when when deaths and hospitalizations keep falling despite increasing infection numbers?
I suppose its when when deaths and hospitalizations keep falling despite increasing infection numbers?
Pretty much, it was only ever about stopping the NHS being overwhelmed.
Obviously, we don't know if long covid will overwhelm it in the long term
It's reckoned Israel are at an r of 0.5 or 0.6.
Pretty much, it was only ever about stopping the NHS being overwhelmed.
So that looks like it's starting to happen, or at least the numbers of new infections looks like it's levelling out, but the deaths looks like they are continuing to drop. From looking at the UK stats on Google anyway.
Just read on the guardian Live feed that Novavax are refusing to sign a contract with the eu as they are suffering from raw material shortages.
Can't help but see this is a consequence of how the eu have been with az, so novavax don't want to get hammered if there are issues.
Unfortunate if that is the case for the eu.
Novavax shortage bad news for Covax as well.
Not good when they’re not getting AZ from India now either.
https://www.ft.com/content/5349389c-8313-41e0-9a67-58274e24a019
India blocks vaccine exports in blow to dozens of nations
Country’s Serum Institute biggest supplier of doses to WHO’s international Covax scheme
India, one of the world’s biggest vaccine producers, has imposed a de facto ban on jab exports as it seeks to prioritise local vaccinations amid an accelerating 2nd wave of coronavirus infections.
The Serum Institute of India, the largest manufacturer of vaccines in the world & the biggest supplier to the Covax programme, has been told to halt exports and that the measures could last as long as two to three months…
News of the controls, which are likely to also affect the shipment of at least 5m doses to the UK, came as EU leaders prepared for talks on Thursday on their own proposed export curbs. The EU, like India, is a major vaccine production hub and has already exported millions of doses while its own coronavirus vaccination programme has lagged behind.
Faced with another wave of infections, the EU & India are under domestic pressure to secure local supplies, but international public health officials have warned that export controls risk doing more damage in the long run.
Every man for themselves!
Every man for themselves!
Indeed, India has a vast population, some vaccine skepticism and another wave mounting. Anecdotally, my friends in Pune have had a bad time and see it getting worse. They're more pro vaccine then most and have suffered higher death rates.
We've got 50%+ vaccination of adults, India needs the doses more.
I suppose its when when deaths and hospitalizations keep falling despite increasing infection numbers?
Once cases no longer predict hospitalisations and deaths, we will have significant confidence of the effects vaccinal immunity has had in changing the disease course. i don't think we are quite there yet, but it will come. Provided no vaccine escape mutants arrive at our shores.
There is concern that the SA variant may escape from vaccine (but less so for natural immunity), but it is early days. The trial in SA of the Ox/AZ vaccine was not encouraging. Compared to the strain shifts in influenza, these are modest but concerning. For influenza, strain shifts can be completely new pathogen concerning.
Every man for themselves!
Used to be you couldn't call yourself a proper country without an army, a national airline and a national beer. Guess we can add vaccine development and production facilities to that list
Well, the Flags have gone up, BA just about exists and we still have Spitfire Ale...
Re raw materials shortages
I can confirm that some laboratory reagents are an absolute nightmare to get hold of at the moment, some stuff that normally ships next day is taking months to arrive.
As for AZ, I can see why they were keen to get some good PR out there, but sharing interim data by Press conference, just a few days before they had the full trial results and having to be challenged by Faucci and the NIAID,before having to revise results slightly downward wasn't the best thing.
(as a scientist the idea of releasing data at a press conference before its published always galls me, but I dont have to answer to shareholders)
The India blockade is a headache for everyone, AZ had said they'd make up their 70m dose shortfall to the EU from plants in India!
Anyone know if it would be ok to go to Forest of Dean next week? (from Bristol).
I know the rule of six kicks back in but is it ok to travel to ride? Would be just taking my son.
Travel allowed from Monday 29th so reckon you’re fine.
I’m planning to go out for the day so just hope the traffic isn’t completely mental. Haven’t been more than 2 miles from my house since October.
Yep, as of Monday i think they said stay local order ends and the message is stay local is you can. All i know is next week i shall be able to ride my mountain bike for the first time this year after riding nothing but gravel since December. I can't bloody wait!
Travel allowed from Monday 29th so reckon you’re fine.
Travel is allowed right now, so long as you have a reasonable excuse.
What are the chances of the UK offering the EU a large share of our Novovax order?
It's not like our order book is looking spartan.
Jab invite came through last night, still too young for the nhs service so taking the doctors referral, private nhs working together in parts of Birmingham, happy to get on the books before the forecasted shortage, wasn’t expecting to get it for a month yet.
The is to some extent political posturing by the French Government given their own domestic issues but it is unhelpful
Just being dicks, the reality is that one vaccine dose helps reduce infections and hospitalisation.
It would just be a pain if people had to have 3 doses this year to get longer durable immunity.
Basically the politicians should stfu and get on with vaccinating people rather than pathetic point scoring considering the potential consequences
It's alright, we can just source more from India or the USA... what's they you say? They have put in place export bans but the EU hasn't? Still... France... boo!
What are the chances of the UK offering the EU a large share of our Novovax order?
I assumed it would be re-directed to some poorer countries.
OTOH, if the AZ vaccine isn't as effective against the SA variant as we hope, and Novovax is, then it might be required in the UK.
It’s alright, we can just source more from India or the USA… what’s they you say? They have put in place export bans but the EU hasn’t? Still… France… boo!
I thought the EU was already nicking vaccines, e.g. the shipment to Australia 2-3 weeks ago? After all the threats they’ve been making India has probably decided if the EU can do it so can they. I’m not sure about the US, I believe they have been sending some doses to Mexico and Canada, though I think the situation in the US is different in that the US government has invested heavily in the vaccine development and production facilities rather than seizing batches paid for by other countries.
Although I voted remain, it’s pretty difficult to defend the EU on this one. You’ve got to have some sympathy for AZ, who have lost billions providing this vaccine at cost. The EU politicians have first slagged the vaccine off saying it is ineffective, accused AZ of breaching contract, threatened legal action and threatened to help themselves to vaccines that have been ordered by other countries.
So, there's a scare story / video going around involving the kids tests kits in that they are sterilising the swabs with ethylene oxide - a cancer causing agent. You can see it clearly marked on the boxes
Can any scientist or educated people here comment on how appropriate or damaging this is / isn't?
I’ll make it simple… boiling water can cause scolds… cleaning something with boiling water before packing it does not mean that the end product can causes scolds.