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I'm a risk adverse individual but would get jabbed tomorrow if I could. Statistically, I'd be about 100 times more likely to get run over cycling to the vaccination hub than to get a clot from the jab itself.
I just don’t get the reason everyone is halting use of the az vaccine
Without getting into the whole cultural differences thing again, some societies are just a bit more "anti-vax" than others. Maybe their governments are happy to suspend temporarily rather than impact the long-term goal of almost complete vaccination.
Indeed. Being over cautious in some countries could result in greater uptake longer term. The end goal is as few deaths and as little long term health impact from the virus as possible. It's just that in the UK we've happily had that reframed as meaning vaccinate as many people as quickly as possible.
Getting vaccinated tomorrow as they've now moved onto the over 40s here, having worked on government projects in the past I'm quite impressed at the speed of things.
So it looks like I was right to question whether six months of testing was enough to pick up all the side effects of the vaccine.
I’d say the half-time scoreline is Logic 1 Science 0.
I’m afraid you may be misunderstanding the situation.
chrispo, all vaccines have potential side effects. Science is well aware of that.
So it looks like I was right to question whether six months of testing was enough to pick up all the side effects of the vaccine.
I’d say the half-time scoreline is Logic 1 Science 0.
How many people have not died due to vaccination so far? Probably thousands
How many have died so far due to the vaccination..none confirmed. Out of over 250 mil doses.
I'd say science was well ahead on this one tbh..
I’d say the half-time scoreline is Logic 1 Science 0.
Err... how do you separate logic and science?
Anyway, I still can't find anything in any of the data that suggests the vaccinated experience an increased occurrence of clots. Either in the trials or public rollouts. In any country. Am I missing something? I'll stick with the temporary stalling in use as "over cautious"... which doesn't mean they are wrong of course. You've got to reassure the public that every precaution is being taken.
I’d say the half-time scoreline is Logic 1 Science 0.
Science is by definition, the same as logic in this context. So either science is incorrect, or the logic is (both are possibilities).
I'm curious to know exactly how many months of testing is what you deem to be the minimum acceptable amount, based on vaccines you have had previously in your life.
All treatments have benefits and risks. But for some, there is eventually no treatment. This paper on three lung transplantations is fascinating. Figure 1c shows in situ a pre- and post-transplantation lung (not for the squeamish and I won't link to it). Those lungs look rather worse than the control hamster lungs in the paper testing the Oxford vaccine I linked to earlier. For severe COVID, the effects on the CV system appear dramatic.
The likely very rare thrombocytopenia is a short-term monitorable adverse event that responds well to treatment, if detected. A dataset of 21M is enormous. Think how many events of any kind will happen within the next two weeks? (about the right time for a causal relationship to manifest).
So it looks like I was right to question whether six months of testing was enough to pick up all the side effects of the vaccine.
Not just you. The regulators and the companies will be doing the same. Every day. With every report of adverse events. As I said, understanding benefit-risk is essential and never stops.
So it looks like I was right to question whether six months of testing was enough to pick up all the side effects of the vaccine.
I’d say the half-time scoreline is Logic 1 Science 0.
There is no medicine, tablet or injection that is 100% safe. Not one. Everything carries a risk of complications in a small minority if patients no matter how long you test for. All we can do is make sure the vast majority of people will suffer no or very minor side effects from the vaccines. That has been done and the fact that so many have been injected safely is amazing given the timescales involved and the pressure the scientific community has been put under.
What you are saying with that post I've quoted is that we should stop all vaccinations until the people who have already been injected are studied for years? How the hell is that going to work? The risks of someone dying from a blood clot or any other side effect of the vaccine is well, well below the 1/1,000,000 mark. That would be a maximum of 60 of the whole of the UK per year. When you balance that against the death rate of over 1000 a week from Covid19 without the vaccine the the choice is a very easy one. You spreading the 'information' that the vaccine is dangerous when it plainly isn't puts you in the same group as the anti-vaxxers and conspiracy nutjobs like Lawrence Fox.
"This thread is a bit waffley. Basically as I said on the TV if you vaccinate tens of millions of people some of them will get a promotion or fall in love or crash their cars immediately afterwards. That doesn’t mean the vaccine is responsible."
https://twitter.com/xandvt/status/1371433658352070658?s=20
Statistically, You'd need to vaccinate approx 5 mil folks for one of these clotting incidents to occur
Has there ever in the history of vaccinaction trials been one that involved 5m participants? If not then there is no guarantee this would have been picked up no matter over how long they spread out the trial process.
It just doesn’t make sense to me, why these countries are stalling their use of the AZ vaccine but am slightly worried about the effect it will have on our great ‘unwashed’ population psyche.
It's a mix of politics, hesitancy, behavioural science and playing to their own crowd.
Well done Dr Xand!
It’s as if they have this bias towards the UK made vaccine
And this is surfacing on FB as some quite nasty sounding Brexity xenophobia. Currently trying to explain this to a good mate.
I reckon I'd happily drive to Ireland right now to take one of those unwanted vaccines if I was allowed! I'm sure I wouldn't name alone.
AZ has a manufacturing plant in Belgium.
And their vaccine will be produced at scale in Germany (Dessau).
AZ has wisely partnered with different producers all over the world.
My understanding is that this isn't basic pharmacovigilance that has spotted an increased trend in clotting incidents, but a small number of unusual cases in Norway in terms of age and type of clot.
WRT these clots, people who haven’t left the house for months suddenly getting mobile sounds like a DVT risk to me too.
They aren't DVT incidents, it's clots on the brain and low palette counts in young patients etc - according to a doctor from the Irish National Immunization Advisory Committee. That sounds like disseminated intravascular coagulation.
Here is what the Norwegians are saying
Germany being urged for another full national lockdown I see. I know Eastern Europe is taking a battering, too. Another few hard months ahead. It's what I fear will happen here in a month or two.
That Norwegian press release up there refers to blood clots and brain haemorrhages as if they are the same type of problem. But they are of course polar opposites, one caused by too few platelets, the other by too many. 🤷🏼♂️
STColin - That’s the whole point of vaccination surely?
Doc R - that was my immediate reaction too.
Germany being urged for another full national lockdown I see. I know Eastern Europe is taking a battering, too. Another few hard months ahead. It’s what I fear will happen here in a month or two.
We are so far ahead of Europe with vaccination that its important to keep that in mind as well though.
Very much depends how the pace of vaccination continues versus the impact of unlocking. I'm cautiously optimistic based on TiReds and others updates. The vaccine reduces severity of, not necessarily actual numbers of, infection, remember.
Though anyone still thinking of travelling abroad considering how far behind Europe is needs to maybe be prepared to rethink nearer the time. Just because governments say you can doesn't mean that you should.
Germany being urged for another full national lockdown I see. I know Eastern Europe is taking a battering, too. Another few hard months ahead. It’s what I fear will happen here in a month or two.
interestinglly, germany has had a rising number of cases for pretty much a month now. Their deathrate has been steadily declining for a month and a half.
That Norwegian press release up there refers to blood clots and brain haemorrhages as if they are the same type of problem. But they are of course polar opposites, one caused by too few platelets, the other by too many
I'm probably wrong here as I'm just a biologist, but in DIC don't you have disseminated clotting followed by bleeding as clotting factors and platelets are used up?
Either way, I'm going to stick my head above the parapet and say that the French and German medicines authorities aren't idiots.
Yep could be dic. No one knows what the problem is or if there even is one. Hope it doesn’t affect uptake too much. I had three DNA’s in my 72 patient vaccination session on Friday afternoon and lots of questions I couldn’t answer.
A bit of clarity would be helpful!
Though anyone still thinking of travelling abroad considering how far behind Europe is needs to maybe be prepared to rethink nearer the time. Just because governments say you can doesn’t mean that you should.
EU are about 2-3 months behind UK, so should have 70% done by July?
Obviously theres a lot of variation country by country within the EU
blood clots
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-56404542
"However, experts say the number of blood clots reported after the vaccine were no more than those typically reported within the general population.
About 17 million people in the EU and the UK have received a dose of the vaccine, with fewer than 40 cases of blood clots reported as of last week, AstraZeneca said."
About 1 in every 425,000 then.
"WHO spokesman Christian Lindmeier said the body was investigating the reports.
"As soon as WHO has gained a full understanding of these events, the findings and any unlikely changes to current recommendations will be immediately communicated to the public," he said.
"As of today, there is no evidence that the incidents are caused by the vaccine and it is important that vaccination campaigns continue so that we can save lives and stem severe disease from the virus."
The European Medical Association - which is also currently carrying out a review into incidents of blood clots - said the vaccine could continue to be administered.
The UK medicines regulator also said evidence "does not suggest" the jab causes clots, as it urged people in the country to get the vaccine when asked to do so.
Professor Andrew Pollard, director of the Oxford vaccine group that developed the Oxford-AstraZeneca jab, told the BBC's Today programme there was "very reassuring evidence that there is no increase in a blood clot phenomenon here in the UK, where most of the doses in Europe [have] been given so far".
It’s what I fear will happen here in a month or two.
I doubt that. We've already had the spike associated with the Kent variant - this is the Kent variant getting to them.
We must be getting close to half the adult population with some degree of immunity either via vaccination or infection, and the vast majority of those at greatest risk have been vaccinated at least once. It's not over, by a long shot, and there will be significant challenges to come, but there are grounds for cautious optimism.
If I was a commentator eg Spiegelhalters piece in the Guardian, I'd be making a conscious decision to stay the **** out of this one, as to me it sounds like the facts have yet to be properly disseminated through the various agencies. This is one of those situations where either side could be properly embarrassed.
Again, there are some very professional medicines authorities here, who I have deep respect for - who have halted the AZ vaccine.
half the adult population with some degree of immunity
Reckoned to be about 30% in London - which is the highest in the UK IIRC.
Though anyone still thinking of travelling abroad considering how far behind Europe is needs to maybe be prepared to rethink nearer the time. Just because governments say you can doesn’t mean that you should.
They'll still go, it's their right to have a holiday. What they fail to understand is that there is no right to go abroad and have a fortnight getting pissed up in the sun. So they will then pull the "I've been vaccinated!" card and go anyway, completely ignoring the fact that:
The vaccine reduces severity of, not necessarily actual numbers of, infection, remember.
In their minds they are now safe and pose no risk to anyone else so why should they be stopped from doing what they want to do.
Again, there are some very professional medicines authorities here, who I have deep respect for – who have halted the AZ vaccine.
Yet EMA & the WHO say it's ok to continue with the AZ vaccine. It's the individual government's who are rowing back on it. Certainly confusing to say the least..
They aren’t “governments” they are independent non-political agencies like the MHRA. We aren’t the only one with an independent medicines regulator.
So somewhere down the line, communication has broken down.
Spain have suspended its use for two weeks now.
I still haven’t seen any data to support the decision… does that mean these bodies are seeing more recent data than that published? Still looks like “you can’t be too safe” over caution to me.
They aren’t “governments” they are independent non-political agencies like the MHRA. We aren’t the only one with an independent medicines regulator.
Apologies - individual national agencies working for varied governments have gone against the advice of their own European body (EMA). Pardon my confusion..
can’t be that difficult to work out how many covid deaths there will be for each week the vaccine is paused. i would imagine its way higher than the number of blood clotting deaths that would happen in that same week.
kelvin
Full Member
Spain have suspended its use for two weeks now.
that seems crazy, Framnce stopping for a day could just about be justified, but 2 weeks is bonkers
can’t be that difficult to work out how many covid deaths there will be for each week the vaccine is paused. i would imagine its way higher than the number of blood clotting deaths that would happen in that same week.
very true. Its an interesting trolley problem for those making descisions in a litigious society though.
Again, there are some very professional medicines authorities here, who I have deep respect for – who have halted the AZ vaccine.
I thought just the same actually. Remember that the vaccine is made in multiple factories. There is not ONE product. It is not impossible that different batches from different sites have different contaminants. All of these have potential to play a role.
Years ago there was an issue with injectable EPO. When given as an injection not an infusion, some patients developed anti-EPO antibodies. These neutralised their own EPO and then their red blood cells started tanking. After much investigation, the effect was traced to the rubber in the stoppers, not the actual drug, causing the effect.
So this is a complex process and precautions are always merited. The UK may not have seen cases of ITP (and I suspect that’s what it will be- bleeding on the brain being one such consequence), but that does not negate other country’s experiences. It has nothing to do with nationalism. Of that one can be certain.
Laura Kuenssberg on Radio4 explaining Johnson’s hindsight on his behalf, as regards the first lockdown being called well after everyone else could see it was needed.