Twodogs
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For the love of dog, can one of the mods please ban me for a bit? I can’t break my morbid fascination with the utter ****wits and tinfoil hat brigade on here
What stunning insight do you have on the situation? Or are you just going to snipe from the sidelines like a petulant child?
I see the emergency powers stay in effect for 2 years?
Could come in handy.
This is quite interesting...
What stunning insight do you have on the situation?
Why should he have to leap a higher bar than anyone else? Frankly, the days of insight on any STW political thread are long gone, sadly in many ways. Nowadays it is just a load of people shouting out of their windows in response to Howard Beale.
the days of insight on any STW political thread
If only you’d had the insight to realise it’s not a political thread. Jeez, the dimness around here...
BBC News – Coronavirus: Why is the UK not shutting schools like other countries?
Remember when the BBC had journalists? Questioning ones? That’s just blind parroting of the line from number 10. Let’s see what went into these “computer models”… garbage in…
Wonder if the emergency laws against mass gatherings will apply to Her Majesty’s Government…
The government is only a few hundred strong*, and the whole of Parliament very rarely sits at the same time. Pairings could easily be arranged if need be.
[* a quick Google suggests 141 members in May’s last government]
It's really not, this is almost like a dress rehearsal for when we get a really nasty infection, and we as *the human race are failing spectacularly.
If only you’d had the insight to realise it’s not a political thread. Jeez, the dimness around here…
It needn't be, but it is.
EDIT: But to be honest it doesn't bother me either way, life has always been too short to worry about STW and it may be shorter than we ever envisaged, sadly for all.
Government is coordinating a national fight against an adversary that is likely to kill many.
Some at the top of this fight have spent a few years slinging mud at the political class (though being part of it themselves) and painting government and experts as being opposed to the peoples best interests.
I think it's hugely naive to think the government can now count on unanimous support in this thread or elsewhere.
Seeds sown don't always grow the way you wish them too.
If only we were all wise enough to agree with whatever mefty says 😉
As for not shutting schools, covid mortality rate in kids is virtually 0, are they planning to build up herd immunity numbers there?
Thnig about the herd immunity plan is that it has to be more or less ubiquitous across UK, otherwise pockets will experience flare ups
Wife & I had tickets to go clubbing next weekend in London (our first time in 3 years - desperate attempt to reclaim our youth) club night was still on according to their Facebook page today, but they've limited numbers to 1000 (I think based on france & others capping at 1000?)
We'd booked it all ages ago
Luckily I'd opted to pay extra for cancellation insurance on hotel, but club say there will be no refunds
Anyway, I'm off to watch World War Z. Bloody great film from a time when pandemics were largely a fantasy scenario for fiction.😁
Tweet below explains where Johnson takes his Coronavirus advice from, I’ve only had quick browse through but it seems pretty scientific to me
https://twitter.com/adamjkucharski/status/1238418007824764930?s=21
Will trump say thanks for this help from China?
https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/487535-chinese-billionaire-to-send-us-500000-coronavirus-test-kits-1-million-face
Thanks Somafunk, I read that earlier, it’s about epidemic modelling in general, not about the models that the government have used for current decisions (about delaying distancing measures to prevent fatigue in the public towards them) that appear to be at odds with WHO statements and actions of other governments worldwide to act early to restrict and delay spread.
If only we were all wise enough to agree with whatever mefty says
I haven't really said anything. I posted up some links to background information, pointed out a bloke was a woman and unlikely to be on the inside and said it is was a bit rich having a go at someone who wasn't adding greatly to the font of human knowledge. I've been semi detached from this site for yonks - came to the conclusion it is a waste of my life. Still read it to see how weird the world is but not interested in engaging.
Anyway, I’m off to watch World War Z. Bloody great film
I know some nonsense has been said already but this is just taking the piss somewhat. Have a word with yourself then read the book.
Lol, funny you should say that. I've just ordered it after watching the film.
CNN reporting that France has 800 new infections in a day.
Anyway, I’m off to watch World War Z. Bloody great film from a time when pandemics were largely a fantasy scenario for fiction.😁
What’s the correct watch order?
World War Z
Contagion
The Road?
Has Johnson made this U-turn due to public pressure or are things moving quicker than they’d hoped?
I’d go with moving quicker than they’d hoped. The Government/Matt Hancock last week suggested locking down/quarantine measures are an option for large urban areas so pretty much nothing is off the cards. If that’s the case It looks like a question of when to do it, and when should it happen and with how much notice to stem the flow of those trying to beat the restrictions.
From Independent.
It is well known in behavioural psychology circles that people are far more likely to keep to rules they have set for themselves than those that are imposed on them from the top down, so deploying Johnson to instil the required levels of blind panic by telling everyone there's no need to panic is truly a stroke of genius.
@Drac that would seem to be about the size of it. Based on it doesn't seem to have been covered in the media. Surprised there doesn't seem to be any collation of information of where the outbreaks of self isolation are. Or even if there is a large isolation cluster if a few sample tests are being done.
What’s the correct watch order?
World War Z
Contagion
The Road?
And read Station Eleven
https://g.co/kgs/CcBqoE
Or perhaps not.
What’s the correct watch order?
World War Z
Contagion
The Road?And read Station Eleven
https://g.co/kgs/CcBqoE
Or perhaps not.
Snowpiercer - just for the social niceties
The Dark Knight Rises
Keeping it on conspiracy topic, Cumms loves a media reference and is basing his whole response based on watching this film.
Some at the top of this fight have spent a few years slinging mud at the political class (though being part of it themselves) and painting government and experts as being opposed to the peoples best interests.
I think it’s hugely naive to think the government can now count on unanimous support in this thread or elsewhere.
Seeds sown don’t always grow the way you wish them too.
A million times this.
People opposed to Joris and his rabble know he is a liar and despise him for it. And they don’t trust him.
Many people who support Joris and his rabble know he is a liar and like him for his “bending the rules to get things done” bullshit. They like him. They don’t trust him.
Along comes something that requires many things, but probably the main one is trust. If anyone is seriously surprised that public trust is already shown to be lacking then they are naive.
You cannot undermine trust, lie and disseminate fake news to get where you are then expect people to trust you when the shit hits the fan.
This is going to be a long haul, but when things get back on an even keel (which they will), then I sincerely hope there is a day of reckoning for the likes of Joris, Trump et al.
Just read the opening book of "The Stand". I may have mentioned this pages ago.
@Drac that meme is great.
TBH I'm more worried about my trip to Dartmoor in May being ****ed up by travel restrictions than catching the bloody thing.
So since this thread is the "Where’s the coronavirus we’re all going to die conspiracy thread?" I'm going to wade in with one...
*utter baseless nonsense to follow *
So the reason we're not following WHO advice is that the WHO say this is still containable and our lot don't.
So far so obvious but...
It's all about funding. Up until this year most people in the UK and I'd wager the West will have thought the WHO were an ageing rock band. This whole corona thing has brought them to the fore.
Institutions, government departments and NGOs are, if nothing else, wonderful at justifying their own existence.
Keeping this contained, on going and in the news indefinitely keeps the WHO relevant, pushes up their profile, ensures better and continued funding.
Once this goes endemic they have to wait for the next major pandemic to come along.
MERS, SARS and Ebola came and went, high mortality meant and effective measures were absolutely imperative so they put them in place and the WHO disappeared from our screens very quickly. Corona on the other hand is the perfect opportunity, infectious enough, mortality just high enough to be scary, low enough to not actually be civilisation ending.
Now this is global, if they can keep it controlled, they never get eclipsed again so it's in their interests to see it continue indefinitely, flaring up here and there, killing a few tens of thousands every month or two to keep them in the news.
On the other side or own advisors think endemic is the way to go, possibly most effective but more importantly most likely to ensure their own prominence and therefore budgets in the future by keeping the WHO off screens and (directly) out of the ears of ministers, reducing it to the status of seasonal flu.
Government claims that there is an evidence base for its plan. Having seen its actions develop over the last week, I'm not convinced it is robust, and not simply being selectively applied.
When your actions are an outlier to pretty much every other country working with the same evidence, questions are inevitable.
The 'short sharp shock' to aim for herd immunity is most definitely not the way to go, unless the government has privately conceded that there is no way they can prepare the NHS even for a flattened curve.
The whole thing has the whiff of Cummings and 'Get Coronavirus Done' about it, and I can't shake the suspicion, irrational or otherwise, that the longer-term desire not to deviate from Brexit policy is influencing our response.
Editor of The Lancet not holding back:
https://twitter.com/richardhorton1?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
https://twitter.com/richardhorton1/status/1238157609129181188
The whole thing has the whiff of Cummings and ‘Get Coronavirus Done’ about it, and I can’t shake the suspicion, irrational or otherwise, that the longer-term desire not to deviate from Brexit policy is influencing our response.
I was thinking that there was a strong element of Cummings, some probably misunderstood science (or actual pseudoscience) and a large amount of arse covering and blame shifting going on. Then I read this:
I've certainly tried to reconcile the concept of herd immunity through exposure with logic and reason, but, like the computer at the end of War Games, I can't find a scenario using the government strategy which doesn't end awfully.
Someone back there posted about lessons learned from the foot and mouth epidemic, and I jokingly hoped that mass culling wasn't the lesson they'd picked up. Seems I may have to revisit that one.
Crazy legs.
I stopped reading when it tried to say Peston was a credible source of facts on the mater.
When your actions are an outlier to pretty much every other country working with the same evidence, questions are inevitable.
This.
The whole thing has the whiff of Cummings and ‘Get Coronavirus Done’ about it, and I can’t shake the suspicion, irrational or otherwise, that the longer-term desire not to deviate from Brexit policy is influencing our response.
Everything, and I mean everything must be subservient to Brexit.
a large amount of arse covering and blame shifting going on
And this.
I’ve come to realise the flattening the curve rhetoric has nothing to do with NHS capacity. It won’t make any difference. We’ll need 200K+ ICU beds to treat the numbers required to get the 60% immunity. The 1K free ICU beds we have won’t make any discernible difference.
The flattening the curve will be to ensure there is enough military/police available to keep order when the public realise a cull of 5-10% of the population is being allowed to happen.
It is not being allowed to happen, it is going to happen regardless of what measures you take. They locked down China and within weeks it is in every country. This is the cold hard truth that most people can not accept.
The manner in which it happens in our country is controllable, to an extent. This isn't about country to country spread, that was always inevitable given the nature of the virus, it is about how many people are going to die.
Martin, you do know Boris has praised the major in Jaws, yes?
"The real hero of Jaws is the mayor".
"A gigantic fish is eating all your constituents and he decides to keep the beaches open.
"OK, in that instance he was actually wrong. But in principle, we need more politicians like the mayor-- we are often the only obstacle against all the nonsense which is really a massive conspiracy against the taxpayer".
Worth listening to Margaret Harris (WHO) on Today programme this morning (52 mins in). Specifically about protecting health workers, and scepticism about using herd immunity as a basis for policy when we don’t know enough about this virus yet to make that call.
It is not being allowed to happen, it is going to happen regardless of what measures you take. They locked down China and within weeks it is in every country. This is the cold hard truth that most people can not accept.
This really. There's no good answers, no right scenarios. People are going to die from this, no matter what we do. Some may say less will die if we do xyz but no one really knows for sure.
It is not being allowed to happen, it is going to happen regardless of what measures you take. They locked down China and within weeks it is in every country. This is the cold hard truth that most people can not accept.
Yes but it is not binary. It is not a 1 or a zero and no other alternatives exist.
There is a range from 0.00000001 to 0.9999999 and our policies can influence where on the line we sit. It also has influences on WHEN we sit at those points. There is a LOT of difference that can be made the right or wrong policies.
That post is quite astoundingly daft and ‘give-uppy’ when you think about it.
How about this for plausible deniability.
We, the government told everyone to do this. You the public, ignored our advise and an extra 5000 oaps died because of it.
Its not our fault you lot didn't listen to the experts we chose to believe, so it's on you.
Now carry on being drone workers and paying us all the taxes thank you and goodnight
Not my fault if you can't recognise a Matrix/Morpheus paraphrase when you see one. I think judging by some the responses over the past few pages, Sense of Humour has also got Corona and has self-isolated.
There’s no good answers
Probably true. But some are better than others.
no right scenarios
See above.
People are going to die from this, no matter what we do.
Someone will die in a RTA next week. We could ban road travel. We could lift all speed restrictions. Both would have an effect on the number.
no one really knows for sure
Taken to its logical conclusion no one ever knows anything for sure. Yellowstone might erupt tomorrow and then Coronavirus will not even make page 10.
But in the games of probability you should have some idea. If you are going to be an outlier (as we categorically are) then you’d better have some good explanations to hand and not be afraid of showing your workings.
The government may well be right and we might not be able to stop this.
But why the hell don’t be give it our best shot and throw kitchen sink at this and try to stop it. If we fail the people will still die, but we’ll have bought some extra time to increase ICU capacity, try new drugs etc. We have nothing to lose and everything to gain.
Several Asian countries have got this under control, yes it might come back, but I’d much rather we keep this in check and pull out all the stops to get a vaccine approved.
