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A different perspective on things.
https://www.independentthinking.co.uk/blog/posts/2020/march/watching-the-world/
Frankly I’m scared,
Hang in there, everyone one is to some degree, the apparently oblivious might still be just processing.
A different perspective on things.
Nature is not intelligent. It is totally amoral though. Ruthless. Uncaring. Unfair. Unreasonable. Unpredictable. Surprising. Adaptive. Opportunistic. Misunderstood. Complex. Humbling. Awe inspiring.
Nature is not intelligent
Sorry, but you tripped on the first hurdle.
Incidentally, anyone else thinking that while the business rate holiday is generally a great idea, supermarkets don't need it? Their demand might fall with spending power, and they might take some losses from supply interruption, but they're doing pretty well at the moment...
Making the emergency measures universal is quicker and easier. Can always revise how rates work later to claw back from certain businesses (supermarkets chains perhaps). Can be made less prone to abuse and loop holes if you do it later at leisure, rather than at speed now.
....and when the market settles as people work through their stockpiles, supermarkets will become less busy.
Over a 12 month period neither their sales nor profits will have grown excessively.
In addition, they have not attempted to maximise profits through price increases.
Would you want to work in their supply chain or be 'customer' facing? No, me neither.
What about their employees' enforced proximity to potential virus carriers
So, no, don't agree with your suggestion that supermarkets don't need biz rate holiday.
Apologies if already posted:
Those “carrying on as normal” need to watch the clip, and listen to the doctor at the end. Don’t do this to our medical staff and the people you live amongst. Please.
Good night. Sleep well.
frankconway
SubscriberOver a 12 month period neither their sales nor profits will have grown excessively.
Would you want to work in their supply chain or be ‘customer’ facing? No, me neither.
What about their employees’ enforced proximity to potential virus carriers
It doesn't take a rise in sales or profits to mean they don't need a holiday- they just need to be shielded from the losses that so many other businesses will take, which they are.
The other 2 things are ways that their staff are negatively impacted- but what has that to do with business rates? It won't help the staff.
At the end of the day this will be a bit of extra profit for them.
Over 12 months - possibly longer - the panic buying will have negligible effect on revenue and profit forecasts.
In fact, the imminent economic downturn will probably depress both.
They are not shielded; current circumstances mean they're hot stocks - but not for long.
So, they are no more or less deserving of a biz rates holiday than any other business.
A biz rates holiday *may* increase job security; if it does, great.
The other 2 points I made were to broaden the discussion.
Coronavirus seems to me to be extremely intelligent. Precocious even.
Interesting article that Matt
Mods: you know when the penny finally drops for bikebouy and he slinks off for a bit then comes back with a new username pretending he wasn't a denier? Can we have a special "formerly known as bikebouy" flair for whoever he comes back as? Just so we know.
That’s quite sobering Kelvin.
Morning folks, todays random collection of statements.
Guess most people are well and truly oh we're going to go through the mill stage. Life is life - channeling my inner May vagueness - it's generally just going to go on in a more intense and restricted way against the backdrop of a pandemic. It's easy to get really wound up about the way things are how it may or may not be happening - just note it down for later. There are times when we'll all be shouty, frustrated, happy, sad, lonely, comforted, productive, creative...
It'll all come out in the wash but right now there's only one game in town - protect people. It's kind of like Brexit - one side only had to do one thing but the other lots. It's easier just to deal with the one thing.
Ok, maybe two things - protect people and be nice to the mods. They have lives as well. Or maybe that's just one thing and comes under protect people.
That's me vaguely paying attention in the rabbit hole - I'm off to experience the reality of shopping. Hope there's milk, it'll be really bad if there's no milky tea.
Mrs Pondo wants to get out on the bikes today - I'm conflicted as to whether we should...
Milky tea? Bleurgh - just the thought makes me sad. 🙁
It’s really odd. People get Zombies they don’t seem to get virus and viral transmission.
I’d er sorta explained this to my parents and the fact that if they were infected that they’d probably end up on a trolley in a corridor and not on the shiney beepy stuff you see on the telly and that no one would be popping in with flowers.
They’re happily isolating as they realise this is best for them,social distancing buys time and time is the thing you can’t buy when you need.
Mrs Pondo wants to get out on the bikes today – I’m conflicted as to whether we should
Current advice is go for it (even if you're isolating), but keep your distance.
https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavirus-covid-19/self-isolation-advice/
You can use your garden, if you have one. You can also leave the house to exercise – but stay at least 2 metres away from other people.
Obviously there's going for a leisurely ride and there's going all Josh Bender. The official advice contradicts the incredibly self confident CV experts on here, and the advice in other countries. But it seems sensible if you're not a dick.
Interesting YT video about vitamin D and respiratory disease:
I think this means I should be riding my bike more.
The official advice contradicts the incredibly self confident CV experts on here, and the advice in other countries. But it seems sensible if you’re not a dick.
The other countries are worried about cycling accidents tbh, nows not the time to be OTB’ing to hospital.
An overall level of fitness is one of the best things you can do to help yourself.(expert not me)
Increasing your obesity self isolating isn’t gonna be a good thing.
According to BrexitCast the Infection Mortality Rate is fairly certain now: 0.5pc-1pc overall.
0.01 pc for under 20s
8pc for over 80s.
Hospitalization rate for over 80s 44pc! 8pc overall.
Obvs if there are a large number of asymptomatic people as suggested by the 'Italian Town' report those numbers will be grossly over estimating.
Mods: you know when the penny finally drops for bikebouy and he slinks off for a bit then comes back with a new username pretending he wasn’t a denier? Can we have a special “formerly known as bikebouy” flair for whoever he comes back as? Just so we know.
I'm not a denier, and I'm still here with the same login.
I simply stated people were not following guidelines, but yeah go ahead and keep kicking.
I'm as affected as everybody else is, and I don't agree with the measures that are in place.
So what?
Different opinion to yours is wrong?
Sounds like Brexit all over again.
I await your witty retort.
I don't think they are worried about cycling accidents, because it's not an inherently dangerous activity for most people doing normal recreational cycling. They're doing it because it's easier (in the short term) to have a very simple message.
The UK approach is different but may actually be more sensible. If the lockdown was expected for 2 weeks then yes telling everyone to stay in may be sensible. This is going to be a long haul, so the harm caused by stopping all outdoor exercise may start to outweigh the benefits.
It's not a black and white issue. Until the official advice changes I'll do some gentle rides with kids and go running. No issues keeping 2m apart where we live.
Not sure if this has been posted yet. Bill gates from 2015
Milky tea? Bleurgh – just the thought makes me sad. 🙁
It's more strong but mooing.
Felt the post was getting close to it's abstract thoughts limit so went milky tea.
For a bit of balance.
BBC News
I hope somebody is taking a more holistic view of what’s happening.
Stumpyjon, this article doesn't appear to be based on any evidence at all. The journalist is playing some kind of Devil's advocate which is pretty irresponsible. There is no evidence the deaths anywhere "would have happened anyway" unless you believe since we're all going to die in the end you can say well nothing matters. The point in this is that the deaths attributable to Covid-19 will generally be both extra and very much more than the NHS can cope with per unit time. It's beyond bizarre to state the NHS has over-egged it when 500 people are dying from Covid alone per day in Lombardy. London is following the exact curve of Lombardy if not slightly higher and restrictions on movement are much weaker. Can't believe this article made it through the editorial process in the BBC although one wonders if there's a politician behind it?
For people who like facts and detail the SAGE (Scientific Advisory Group) is here:
This is the stuff that's informing the decisions getting made, updated in (more or less) real time.
Useful 1 page Summary here:
Date looks a little old to me, but that's what 'they' are working from.
Frankly I’m scared, not for me but my wife is about to start next round of cancer treatment. We’ll keep it tight but it’s other people’s casual approach to this that does my head in.
Same here but for my dad, sadly he is also taking the casual approach to social distancing etc. The hospital have already cancelled his last treatment as he was deemed too ill to proceed but instead of taking care of himself he's blaming everyone else and just carrying on as normal. I know he went to the pub last night by pictures on facebook and it was rammed with him in close proximity to others, part of me wants to tell him it's his own stupid fault if he gets it but I also definitely don't want him to get it as it'll take him and most likely my mum too. They've both gone to the supermarket this morning to take advantage of the OAP early opening, they have a decent amount of food at home and the family friend they're living with is more than happy to get shopping for them. Sometimes you can't save people from themselves.
There is no evidence the deaths anywhere “would have happened anyway” unless you believe since we’re all going to die in the end you can say well nothing matters.
Language matters. I've thought for a while that when we talk about 'saving lives' that is creating a false impression. If we just said 'delaying deaths' instead, it would promote a far healthier relationship with this whole dying thing.
There is ample evidence that the death of someone over 80 is far more likely than the death of someone in their 20s, even if 'would have happened anyway: might be a bit of an exaggeration. Certainly if you delay the death of an 83 year old, you will delay it for far fewer years than if you delay the death of a 20 year old.
Not sure if this has been posted yet. Bill gates from 2015
Several times it’s not groundbreaking it’s been known for decades the effects a virus will have.
The point in this is that the deaths attributable to Covid-19 will generally be both extra
Some will, some won't. It seems perfectly reasonable to assume the the ven diagram of people who have die from CV and who would have died from something has some overlap. We just don't know how much.
CV kills 8pc over over 80s. The idea that the 8pc who die from CV would all have lived to 1st Jan 2021 is a bit fanciful.
Patrick Vallance: "It was a point conceded by Sir Patrick at a press conference on Thursday when he said there would be "some overlap" between coronavirus deaths and expected deaths - he just did not know how much of an overlap."
(I agree the word 'conceded' is mental - it's just a statement of fact.)
According to the article comparing the CV numbers to flu numbers is a bit apples and oranges:
The flu comparison
In contrast, the figure he gave for flu deaths to MPs - 8,000 - is different. It is actually the number of deaths over and above what you would expect to happen in any given year.Many more die with flu, but the figure gives you an indication of how many more die because of flu, whereas the 20,000, 250,000 and 500,000 figures for coronavirus are simply the number of deaths linked to coronavirus.
Frankly, the fact you chose to use the term 'generally' means you've already get this.
Couldn't agree more that the BBC article linked above is irresponsible - it evens lists the stats that the "do nothing" model is half a million deaths and the previous measures is quarter of a million. So if we all abide by the rules the mortality rate won't be much more than usual - isn't that an amazing result that justifies the means? Even then the evidence coming from Lombardy doesn't seem to reflect that as a possible outcome. Nevertheless I expect this will be seized upon by Dunkirk spirit gammons to justify carry on doing whatever the **** they like
@bikebuoy - when you say
"So what?
Different opinion to yours is wrong?"
Its not that you have a different opinion, it's that as you and your kind think you know better than nearly every expert out there you will cause more people to die. You have expressed on numerous occasions that you're either too dense or too arrogant and entitled to grasp that. You're a clown.
What is not getting across to people but is fundamental is that although the mortality rates in older people are much higher, younger people are still needing ICU to survive. What you need to understand is when ICU gets overwhelmed younger much fitter patients will die. The problem with the curve in Italy is it's still at a relatively early point in terms of those who are fitter as they are more likely to be critically ill but being sustained. I'm not sure how else to tell you this but every single one of us is at risk of dying if our ICUs get overwhelmed which is beginning to happen in London. They have stopped putting >65s into ICU in Lombardy now. That's not over 80. That's our mothers and fathers who were otherwise relatively well. I'm not sure what else to say on the matter as we will all be accused of over-egging it until people become personally affected.
I’ve been producing such graphs and analyses with projection for the past week using daily data. It is now automated and I run it daily. Sadly the plots are not good reading.
Davous pleas don’t lower the thread with personal insults. Thanks.
So if we all abide by the rules the mortality rate won’t be much more than usual – isn’t that an amazing result that justifies the means?
That's your conclusion, not the article's conclusion.
...and you're wrong. There will be *some* overlap we don't know how much so you can't conclude from that article that the mortality rate won't be much more than usual.
It is getting very serious now but all we can do is observe the advice and - like us yesterday - convince ourselves in laws to stay indoors.
The episode has highlighted to me like a smack in the face how selfish people have become. To illustrate that further, my wife had cause to go to a chemist last night - on her own, in the car. One of the high streets three pubs was open, rammed to the rafters, steamed windows and people spilling onto the street. What selfishness of people to exaggerate a risk such as this for a selfish last hurrah, and how irresponsible of the landlord.
Look after yourselves. Don’t panic, stay indoors.
bikebouy:
I’m not a denier
Also bikebouy:
#bitofflu
#madpanicensues
people seem to be thinking “yeah, so it’s only a few old folk that will die from it”” as the reality of the news gets broadcast.
And TBH that argument is valid point to answer.
Mass over reaction IMO.
people without symptoms are just getting on with life. And rightly too.
the facts as we see them do not warrant such measures we’ve seen this Govt push on it’s populace
I don’t agree with the measures that are in place
What selfishness of people to exaggerate a risk such as this for a selfish last hurrah, and how irresponsible of the landlord Government.
FTFY
Keep kicking, I'm watching...
What selfishness of people to exaggerate a risk such as this for a selfish last hurrah, and how irresponsible of the
landlordGovernment.FTFY
<Yawn>
OK - WWSTWD ..
MissJ lives alone in a rented room in a house with strangers. Her place of work has closed down for the foreseeable. She hasn't asked to move in with us, but she might
Should we ..
a) Tell her to tough it out
b) Tell her to tough it out for 5-7 days and then come to us
c) Tell her it's OK to come to us but she has to be as alone as possible for 5-7 days
d) Just tell her to come home - it's family ferchrissakes
Answers, pitchforks, thoughts ...
I am glad to announce that ordering a takeaway is now to be known as ‘supporting the local economy at this difficult time’
50% off Papa Johns via Paypal this weekend.
Davous pleas don’t lower the thread with personal insults. Thanks.
can you make a special place for the trolls like bikebuoy to go and argue with each other then? another forum I used to be on had a section for people to argue, you needed 50 posts or more to enter it to stop people coming back under new names, it worked quite well. Everything here just gets turned into bickering by the same few people.
@DrJ so long as you're not at risk letting her come home shouldn't be an issue. Take sensible precautions for the week after. If that's not possible then there's your answer.
+1 Bigjim
The episode has highlighted to me like a smack in the face how selfish people have become. To illustrate that further, my wife had cause to go to a chemist last night – on her own, in the car. One of the high streets three pubs was open, rammed to the rafters, steamed windows and people spilling onto the street. What selfishness of people to exaggerate a risk such as this for a selfish last hurrah, and how irresponsible of the landlord.
Several causes behind it though.
First is undoubtedly that people are ****ing stupid but the advice they've been given and the leadership they've been shown is flaky at best. Advice from "it's not really anything to worry about" to "we want people to catch it to get herd immunity" to "some of you are going to die but it'll be old people anyway" to "oh shit, we might actually be in trouble here." Combine that with the lies of the last 4 years and the media spin on everything and it's not really any wonder that people don't believe anything they hear.
Second is "it's just a cough", "it's just the flu". If it was an illness with a 10% mortality rate and definitive symptoms, people would probably be more inclined to a) believe it's serious and b) take the preventative measures they were told to. But plenty of people have "just a cough" and think nothing of it so that's what they're carrying on with. By the time it is something serious, they've already infected hundreds of others.
And third is that pubs have a shedload of stock which they face either binning and losing or they could sell it in one final blow-out weekend. Given the massive uncertainty they now face in if/when they could ever open again and what (if any) compensation they're going to get, the landlord will be trying to make a final bit of money.
But mostly ****tery. There's a lot of it about these days. It'll be like the Brexit vote all over again: "Oh but I didn't think it would really happen" / "Oh but I didn't think it would affect ME"...
But mostly ****tery. There’s a lot of it about these days. It’ll be like the Brexit vote all over again: “Oh but I didn’t think it would really happen” / “Oh but I didn’t think it would affect ME”…
"It's China's fault"
trolls like bikebuoy
Not trolling.
Happy for you to find your own thread/forum though.
I've said before, the evidence I posted suggests people think its just a bit of flu, work colleagues think that, the queues at B&Q think that, the workers on the M27 think that, the queues in the Garden Center this morning think that too.
People still huddling around each other, oldies and kids in same groups.
And for the vast majority of the UK population it will have NO effect other than we carry it. At best for the vast majority of people they will get flu like symptoms.. Thats been very well publicised.
So, clearly not trolling.
Not bothered what you lot think, some of you ought to heed the social distancing mantra and apply it to social media distancing.
could’ve saved yourself a lot of waffle & just written that 😂But mostly ****tery.
I’ve said before, the evidence I posted suggests people think its just a bit of flu, work colleagues think that, the queues at B&Q think that, the workers on the M27 think that, the queues in the Garden Center this morning think that too.
That part is true - people do think that.
But this:
people without symptoms are just getting on with life. And rightly too.
is plainly wrong. You must know it's not right, so why post it, if not for the sake of trolling?
Surely hairdressers and beauticians have to be on the closed list?...
DrJ - home with you, try to isolate in the house for a week. Keeping her away for another week changes nothing. I think the risk of her bringing CV to you is lower than the risk of her getting it the more time she spends in a shared house.
WWSTD? Mrs Pondo is scheduled to make tiramisu for her mum for mother's day - Mrs Pondo is a teacher, her mum's in her seventies, has recent history of cardiac problems and a persistent cough. Is there a way we can make pudding delivery safe?
Surely hairdressers and beauticians have to be on the closed list?…
All the ones in my high street have never been busier! Seems to be that as everyone is WFH, they've all decided to go and get their hair and nails done.
And for the vast majority of the UK population it will have NO effect other than we carry it. At best for the vast majority of people they will get flu like symptoms.. Thats been very well publicised.
Yes, but what you are missing is that even though that is the case it still means large numbers of people will die. Have you missed the scenes in Lombardy or do you think its just the eyties being typically melodramtic? Even amongst the very low risk groups there will be significant mortality. At a 0.2% mortality rate for 20yr olds at an infection rate of 60% I reckon that is still about 5000+ of them dying (& the mortality rate goes up if the ICU capacity is overwhelmed.) You seem incapable of understanding that a tiny percentage of an extremely large number is a lot of dead people.
And for the vast majority of the UK population it will have NO effect other than we carry it. At best for the vast majority of people they will get flu like symptoms.. Thats been very well publicised.
Ah yes the selfish and self entitled
I guess it's a case of do you feel lucky punk. Because as well as wiping out folk you love it's perfectly plausible it will wipe you out as well even if you are young and healthy when you cannot access a ventilator.
You seem incapable of understanding that a tiny percentage of an extremely large number is a lot of dead people.
Or just doesn't care, as long as it is not him.
Or just doesn’t care, as long as it is not him.
And lives in the ignorance that it could quite easily be him.
Yes the odds are in his favour but they are far from nil - especially as demand on ventilators rises.
He should read up on what novel virus' are, where they come from and why they are hard to treat.
@bikebouy and the other ignorant selfish people who believe it won’t impact them please listen to this humbling account from an A&E doc on what awaits us ....
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/p0877mb2
The last posts are what is doing my head in.
the thought that people are going to be fine because by stats they shouldn't get it or have symptoms.
trouble is they might and anyone going into hospital to go on a ventilator is taking a chance I wouldn't wish on anyone.
plus any extra infection increases the chance of spread.
Anyone else struggling with teenagers unable or unwilling to understand what's going on? I've now had several heated discussions with my 15 year old daugher about whether she should be allowed to meet up with her mates. We've tried the approach of letting her see her mates outside under instructions to keep their distance from each other but then watched as they carried on as normal. Now I'm at the point of losing my temper with her. She basically thinks her social life is more important than people's lives. Also discussed it with the other parents on whatsapp and they don't seem to get it either. Lots of 'but it's going to be so hard for them', and 'it's not their fault, let's go easy on them', which is all true, but still no excuse for them not to play their part.
Surely Bikebouy is a troll. No one can be that ignorant given the amount of information and evidence out there. Can they?
Kust drobe from Newbury into London to drop food for two isolators. Number of things struck me; lots of large groups of cyclists around Richmond park area, ****s just ride on your own or with familly, also almost every other person out and about seemed to be 70+, just stay the **** in the house. Had to stop for a piss at services, why are greggs and costa open and why does the services look like something from Shaun of the dead with a load of confused looking pensioners shuffling about?
Ah yes because wartime spirit.
So long as they understand not to expect a ventilator when they NHS implements priority.
@dazh - it's simple, her actions could possibly lead to the premature death of an elderly relative (hers or her friends). Take her phone, tablet etc. off her.
@bikebouy - you're being a dick and you know you are. It's not intelligent, funny or Poe's Law. It's dick behaviour. You're the social media equivalent of a hoarding panic buyer
@Mods - have a word, he's spreading misinformation.
Take her phone, tablet etc. off her.
Do the exact opposite of this!
Social contact with friends is essential. Plenty of tools for doing so without meeting in person. Encourage her to do use them as much as she wants.
Seem like those of us who were alarmed at the response of the govt were on the right track.
https://www.buzzfeed.com/alexwickham/10-days-that-changed-britains-coronavirus-approach
Do the exact opposite of this!
I will not be taking her phone off her. I might have to lock her in the house though. Bloody nightmare.
Costa have announced they will remain open doing takeaway only with free drinks for NHS staff for the next two weeks.
Think this has backfired already as the Costa at my hospital today had a huge queue and it looks like they had to draft in extra staff to cope!!
Surely duty of care to fellow humans should be the over riding position to all of this.
There is so much we don't know yet, but we do know it kill lots of people. Why would you risk spreading something that does that? I don't understand.
Good luck with that Daz!
Lock in will cause you serious issues long term (I suspect you’re at least half joking though). Half an hour getting her to watch advice and pleas from health service staff in Lombardy & Madrid might be more productive.
My son’s friends don’t get it yet at all, but he does, he has to with his condition. FaceTime and Google hangouts in regular use.
Be patient with people, teens or not, that don’t get this yet. The government completely messed up the messaging last week/weekend, and it’ll take a while/lot for the late (but correct) response from government this week to counteract that. Lots of reinforcement of the distancing message next week should be forthcoming from official sources, and more people will start to get what needs doing and why.
I’ve said before, the evidence I posted suggests people think its just a bit of flu, work colleagues think that, the queues at B&Q think that, the workers on the M27 think that, the queues in the Garden Center this morning think that too.
BB completely agree with this sentiment. But when you compound that ignorance with the greater misunderstanding of geometric not linear processes, and the duration of infection requiring critical care (typically 7-14d for those in need), we are destined for a challenging time. As of today, UK deaths are doubling every 1.7 days (95% CI 1.7,2.2). This is to be compared with every other country rebased to the same point, where they doubled every 3.0 days (95% CI 2.8,3.2). The UK is a statistically significant outlier in the wrong direction.
Please isolate.
TiRed: pointless attempting to explain , he’s not going to change his mind now as that would imply his original course of reasoning was utter batshit crazy and irresponsible. Poo wee lad is now backed into a corner by scientific arguments yet he’s still swinging his bruised ego around
it's not just teenagers dazh, just having the same arguement with my 81 yo mother (hers is the fatalistic approach of "oh if i get i get it").
"The UK is a statistically significant outlier in the wrong direction"
Yes - we are in for one hell of a walloping and people won't realise until its too late. We should have started a lockdown 3 weeks ago and by now it should be socially unacceptable to be outside your house unless you have a valid reason or you are clearly so far away from anyone else that it would be impossible to pass on the virus.
Thats a plot not an an analysis. I analyse cases and deaths and look at the ratio (case fatality rate). Also the analysis will be sensitive to the number of cases or deaths the graph is rebased to in the early stage of epidemic growth.
Think this has backfired already as the Costa at my hospital today had a huge queue and it looks like they had to draft in extra staff to cope!!
The law of unintended consequences is coming into play. In the parallel universe of foot and mouth - this is the contractor period. There is a general handle on what is going on, we're still free styling it. Much good will be done, there will be gaffs that exacerbate the situation. We're all going to stuff up at some point during this thin. It's just trying not to do it spectacularly. New and interesting mistakes ok - hopefully small ones. Repeating the same ones is bad. We're all only human..
...unless this is some cover for an alien take over from that deep space object last year. Virus and conspiracy - that's both criteria met for being on topic for the day.
And for the vast majority of the UK population it will have NO effect other than we carry it.
Whilst this may be true, they are then carriers, and for a couple of weeks probably asymptomatic, contagious carriers who don't realise they have it. Carriers who could then carry it to - say, as a totally random example, my mother - who is knocking on a bit, recovering from a stroke and double kidney failure, is on so much different medication that I'm amazed she doesn't rattle, and a stubborn old goat who sees concepts like "staying in" and "accepting help" as giving in to being ill and losing her independence. And I expect that she's far from alone in this especially amongst her age group.
The "fear mongering" would absolutely be excessive but for this minor inconvenience. Like the majority of people, if I get it I'll probably (hopefully) have "a bit of flu" for a few days. But if my mum gets it it stands a very real chance of finishing her off. If that's fear mongering then, well, it's because I'm bloody well afeared.