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Predictably The Daily Hate is calling for accelerated re-opening. Those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it etc
Which did get us to autumn - so if all your eggs are in the vaccination basket, that would be enough.
Vaccine resistant strain would ruin this line of thought though.
I'm totally sympathetic to people who are massively ****ed off with even this 'lockdown lite'. Which is why I want it to be the last one. Some groups will be less vulnerable to infection already, but there is easily capacity for another peak to arise before vaccination of adults is complete if we throw the doors open before the virus is at a level low enough to allow contact tracing to be effective.
We need all the ingredients to be working together - initial virus suppression through effective lockdown and vaccination, then further vaccine roll-out, contact tracing, continued mask use on public transport and in other enclosed spaces, plus hygiene measures. All of these have a part to play in helping us get open and hopefully stay open.
Which did get us to autumn
Not quite the same scenario though. Most kids were off school for the entire summer term, so indoor mixing was limited. Even then, rising cases were an issue almost immediately in the north of England. Now we're talking about getting schools open next month with potentially at least a term of full-school attendance, which straight away will move R upwards. Plus we have a more transmissible strain than last year.
So I don't think that vaccination of all adults can be the panacea unless the programme accelerates massively. Will help considerably with mortality among the most vulnerable fairly soon, and I don't know if the government is at the point of thinking 'good enough', and is prepared to accept the consequences of a summer wave in younger groups.
There will be another peak. Most definitely. But, if the vaccine program and any current immunity works for us, then hospital admissions and deaths will stay relatively low. But I fear once we see a rise in cases there will be quick reactions to lock us down again because we have already seen what happens. Frightened of trusting the vaccine?
Please god, no… some areas have never come out of measures… let’s get levels low enough there as well, please.
the entire of devon & cornwall had less cases in the week up to 12th feb than for example bradford alone.
if you zoom in, most of my local area is white at less than three cases.
remind me again why everywhere needs to have the same rules?
Because no area is actually isolated from any other, although I often think otherwise when I cross the Tamar.
(yes Scotland and Wales keep doing their own thing, greater coordination and support would have been preferable there as well though)
remind me again why everywhere needs to have the same rules?
People move about and the second you in Devon and Cornwall open up there will be people making an escape to you from areas with high levels of the virus too. They then potentially spread it around your local area and you are staring at having an outbreak that causes you to be locked down again and possibly put your local health services under strain.
We need to get every part of the country as low as possible before anywhere opens up, then we have a chance to contain any outbreaks and avoid further nationwide lockdowns.
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases
Cornwall's latest recorded rate is 61 per 100,000. Not bad, but not there yet. Looking down the list, if Cornwall is ready, so are Camden, Bridgend and Swansea.
Not bad, but not there yet
And where is that? Zero is a mere fantasy. As many have said, once people move around there will be cases. So, is it 10, 20, 24?
I don't know what the capacity of track and trace is right now. The figure needs to be low enough that, in theory, every new case can be aggressively followed up and contacts isolated.
It's hard to find comparable data as to the likely rate in June/July last year, when we reopened (because less testing).
This study:
suggests 25,000 a week were infected, approximately 50 per 100,000. The current stats are based on confirmed cases, so the current actual rate will be higher, by what factor I'm not sure.
I'm also not sure how low rates can be expected to fall during the current set of lockdown restrictions, which have more shops open, and more workplaces, than last time around. There will be a baseline which is a product of the depth and duration of restrictions, plus various geographical and population differences between areas.
Vaccinations – why is London so far behind the rest of the UK? A simplistic view would be that roll-out would be easier/quicker in an area of more dense population. Or is this because there is a lower number of higher-risk groups?
Could be plenty of things. More diverse population with social and cultural reasons to not get the vaccine, higher number of older people in work and no time to get the vaccine, more staff isolation due to increased covid risk so less staff to give vaccines. I know my borough is one of the worst and one of the best is Richmond which is just full of old rich retired people.
Yip. We had the dizzy heights of Tier 2 for a week I think it was.
Move to the City (my partner said) we have restaurants that will serve you any food you want from any country, cinemas, shops, clubs and bars...[sigh]
remind me again why everywhere needs to have the same rules?
People move about and the second you in Devon and Cornwall open up there will be people making an escape to you from areas with high levels of the virus too.
I'm astonished that this question keeps being asked. I understand the frustration of areas with the lowest rates, but people will travel to escape their own restrictions, knowing that the chances of being caught are relatively low.
It's because a lot of people are selfish gits
Some of them are on here
I don’t know what the capacity of track and trace is right now
It's world beating, so literally better than any other track and trace in existence.
I'm surprised you have to ask.
An alternative, some might say more realistic, view, is that seeing as none of the usual media fanbois are bleating on about how successful it is (compare to the vaccine rollout - despite that success having far more to do with it being run by the NHS rather than some chump change crony of the cabinet), so it must be absolute shite.
It’s world beating, so literally better than any other track and trace in existence.
I’m surprised you have to ask.
Yeah, I know. They devolved it to local authorities, didn't they, so it might have got slightly betterer?
I do try to be as optimistic as possible (readers of my posts on this thread may not agree with this!) 🙂
Dido Harding still in charge. They also changed the way they measure themselves so magically they got from about 70-80% of contacts traced to 93%.
Some estimates put the percentage of those traced that actually isolate as low as 20%.
Some 80% of those contacted say they have no other contacts. Makes you wonder how they got so unlucky really, and what the percentage of people living in this country alone is...🙄
Alright, scratch that one then. Not sure how they are planning to navigate this spring summer period then.
I just want to give us a chance to get track and trace working for us properly.
Give over, T&T is pointless and always has been, independent analysis is arguing it does very little to drive the rates down but of course Dido says otherwise, surprised by that...
You can have a million people phoning contacts but if those contacts aren't isolating for various reasons then it renders the whole point redundant.
The bill is now at £22Bn for T&T, when it was at £8Bn it looked like a huge disaster but now it's beyond a scandal. It's absolutely crazy that there is no accountability for any of this mess.
The bill is now at £22Bn for T&T, when it was at £8Bn it looked like a huge disaster but now it’s beyond a scandal. It’s absolutely crazy that there is no accountability for any of this mess.
I mean why would a bunch of rich white people ever feel the need to take account of anything. Its called privilege for a reason. But, I will put my hate the tories in a box.
You can have a million people phoning contacts but if those contacts aren’t isolating for various reasons then it renders the whole point redundant.
I've never been contacted and hope never to be so I dont know how it works, do they tell you who or at least when your contact is?
Is's not ideal (or following the rules) but we can hope that at least some of the poeple who arent isolating are at least being more careful or getting themselves a test, so it has some benefit.
Proper T+T - see batfinks Aus example from a few days ago is going to be completely unacheivable here.
Really interesting/scary chat with some of the younger members of my team today. All of them:
Early to mid 20's
First or second job of their career
Living at home with parent(s) or with housemate that also WFH
All of them is struggling to hang on. Every. Single. One.
Their struggles are:
No outlet - They can't meet friends to off load, they can't go to the gym, they can't have some light retail therapy, all the traditional ways of destressing for that age groups (lets be honest, go and get drunk with friends) have been taken away.
Poor WFH space - shared flats/houses mean they're working from bedrooms or shared space in a dining room/kitchen. They feel they can't work to their full potential and feel the quality of work is suffering. That is often combined with overloaded internet when you have 3 or 4 people on video calls.
Harder to learn and develop - We've got a really good programme in place but you need to be amongst your peers to pick things up and to gain knowledge. They've not had that for 12 months.
They can't meet new people - Without putting to finer point on it, they're in their 20's and want to date, to meet people, to mingle and to have some "fun", that's been off the menu for a while, particularly those who live with parents.
Nothing to look forward to - Most had plans for Xmas or for upcoming holidays. All either were cancelled or are about to be. They can't even look forward to a night out, Zoom just isn't cutting it.
These people work for a big organisation who have been better than most in terms of work load management, well being programmes and other stuff, but these people simply need to get out and about again. They know why we're doing it, but that doesn't change the impact it's having on them.
I've said it before worry that hose calling for longer, harder measures really need to look at it from other peoples perspectives. It's easy for me and others like me, I'm 40, have space in my house to work from home easily and my social life has gone the way of most other 40 year olds!
SIL does T&T, still fairly common for her to do a whole shift and not have any calls to make. I think she had one shift like that at the weekend.
I’ve said it before worry that hose calling for longer, harder measures really need to look at it from other peoples perspectives.
Many of those people have made it clear they want less time with hard measures in place, more time with far less hard measures in place (and that we could well have already been at the "less hard measures" stage now if it wasn't for past mistakes)... but are saying that the path to that is to not release current measures too early.
Here is the rub...
...when you "lock down" late, you have to lock down for longer. When you come out of lock down to soon, you make another lock down more likely.
...and also...
...when you "lock down" too loosely, you have to lock down for longer.
We shouldn't be in lock down now. We shouldn't have had to lock down as long as we have.
And it's not just the young hit by the mismanagement that has resulted in late and seemingly endless restrictions... it is everyone. Grandparents living alone. Divorcees living far from their kids. Everyone.
Off topic but- This thread should be preserved for its historical significance. Basically future generations will be able to read it and see how the pandemic panned out in real time.
Starting with daz's very first post, thought the initial posts that included some people really panicking, the accusation of being drama queens by others, to the 'oh shit, this is actually pretty bad'realisation, and beyond ...
My wife's just had her vaccination. Pizer. Aged 56 with minor congenital heart defect.
Process was very efficient at local town hall, organised by the local GPs.
Aged 60 no underlying health conditions. Got my Oxford Astra Zeneca vaccine yesterday at 09:00. Felt ok for 12 hours then came down with Chimpanzee flu. Shivers, temperature, aches and fatigue. Recovering now but still feel like I have a hangover. My daughter who got hers last week suffered the same symptoms. However as one possible alternative to not getting vaccinated is drowning in your own body fluids it's a small price to pay
Some estimates put the percentage of those traced that actually isolate as low as 20%.
Some 80% of those contacted say they have no other contacts. Makes you wonder how they got so unlucky really, and what the percentage of people living in this country alone is…🙄
There's a blindingly obvious solution to this problem. As we seem perfectly happy to pay some people 80% of their wage to not go to work we could presumably do the same for those told to isolate.
I'd certainly not give track and trace any details of my contacts as I'd not want to put them in a position where there's an official record, but I would let any contacts know so they could make their own decision. There only appears to be downsides from an individuals point of view to engaging with the testing system.
Remember I typed watch this space about the spat over AZ vaccine deliveries? Well it's official now, the EU signed 24 hours before the UK. Keep watching.
I'm sure they'll find some nebulous wording in the contracts that conclusively declare UK plc the champions 🤦♂️
The vaccine rows between rich countries is all a bit distasteful. If I was in Morocco or Moldova I'd be very unimpressed
There’s a blindingly obvious solution to this problem
Trouble is this government will try everything else first before the bleedin obvious
Except beware the law of unintended consequences. 'lada, lads! The government are paying 500 a week if you've got covid!' 😬
I’m sure they’ll find some nebulous wording in the contracts that conclusively declare UK plc the champions
At least you don't have to read very far to find it.
Give over, T&T is pointless and always has been
Australia and New Zealand clearly demonstrate that if you get the infection rate down low enough to begin with, proper T&T is very effective. I know that the word "if" is doing a lot of work there.
I agree with everything Kelvin said up there, especially
And it’s not just the young hit by the mismanagement that has resulted in late and seemingly endless restrictions… it is everyone. Grandparents living alone. Divorcees living far from their kids. Everyone.
It's months since I've hugged my parents, or they've hugged their grandchildren. My in laws have had to go into a home - early dementia and late stage cancer - having not seen their grandkids for 14 months now. I've never met the new team I work with. I'm really struggling with the training for my new job, having to do it alone at home, the whole team is the same. I can't go for a ride and a beer with my mates to unload and unwind. I love my wife but ****ing hell, 12 months in the same house with the same people makes it hard sometimes. Her job means she gets to go out and visit families, and she bounces out the house at the idea of new places and people, the selfish cow 😉
I know I've got it easier than many - of any age group, and I know how tough it is on the young, the kids and 18 and 14, but the young really don't have a monopoly on how miserably shit this last 12 months has been and sometimes I get a bit tired of being told that they have.
And none of this latest round needed to have happened if this useless government had made some blindingly obvious decisions over the last 12 months that would have reduced the impact of the virus on all our lives.
Apologies. Rant over. And breeeeeeeeathe....
I’m astonished that this question keeps being asked
I’m not, you only have to look at every voxpop piece to camera about someone’s angst about covid, it’s nearly always driven by ego and fundamentally about the self rather than society and how the country can deal with this virus.
20 somethings wanting a shag and a holiday? Get a grip.
Except beware the law of unintended consequences. ‘lada, lads! The government are paying 500 a week if you’ve got covid!’
It does come into play but there is also relativity. Would it even register on the pandemic spending spaf-o-meter which has a scale working on Dido and or a Cummings worth of wasted money?
every voxpop piece to camera about someone’s angst about covid, it’s nearly always driven by ego and fundamentally about the self rather than society and how the country can deal with this virus.
Its also driven by everyones own stress and anxiety about covid its stopping them from having a little more compassion and understanding for others. The psychologist classic everyones stress buckets are full.
I've said this on this thread already but after 40 years of various governments all promoting neoliberalism and the advancement of the individual, it's no surprise that people when faced with essentially an existential crisis they have no understanding of how to behave following some society benefitting rules as opposed to their own desires and wishes
Just seen the vaccine advert aimed at the BAME communities.
Hope it does the job of exposing the dangerous sh*t posted online etc. and convinced people to have the vaccine.
I thought it was pretty well measured and obviously used influential people from these communities to get the message across.👍
Hope it does the job of exposing the dangerous sh*t posted online etc. and convinced people to have the vaccine.
I genuinely hadn't seen much anti vax crap in my social media bubble, but suddenly been a surge on comments on the local BBC news feed and councils Covid posts. A few I've challenged have had posts removed or deleted them, and I've reported the blatant lies.
I get that you can wonder how the vaccine got approved so much quicker than normal, I don't understand how you can be clever enough to have noticed that difference but to not find or understand the explanations.
Except beware the law of unintended consequences. ‘lada, lads! The government are paying 500 a week if you’ve got covid!’
It does come into play but there is also relativity. Would it even register on the pandemic spending spaf-o-meter which has a scale working on Dido and or a Cummings worth of wasted money?
It’s not so much the cost but rather the people deliberately infecting themselves and then receiving more than their salary to sit on their arse on the PlayStation for two weeks
It’s not so much the cost but rather the people deliberately infecting themselves
Pretty sure that's the unintended consequence implied by the law of them.
See also Vaccination Passports cross referenced with Black Markets.
Proper T+T – see batfinks Aus example from a few days ago is going to be completely unacheivable here.
I agree, and that was my point I think. We have a bloody good quarantine - and it works - JUST, and only for small infection numbers and when supported by a well managed and effective track and trace system. Victoria have managed to bollocks it up twice (no blame there.... it's hard).
Without test and trace, quarantine's effectiveness will almost not be worth it's burden IMO.
20 somethings wanting a shag and a holiday?
Just to keep the age stuff out of it there's a load of older folks wanting a holiday (plus some colleagues) and sod the consequences. I know I'm taking bookings and enquiries from them. The inability to consider the consequences is staggering.
See also the terminal stage 4 cancer sufferer moaning that he's stuck in Madeira as Portugese territory is on the red list. Why did he head out for a holiday in December while still requiring regular chemotherapy? If you choose and it goes wrong suck it up and live (or not) with it.