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4 weeks @ 0.1 is actually about 100x MORE effective (in terms of end result) than 40 @ 0.9.
I corrected that original statement as below after I posted...
Realised my maths is wrong, 4 weeks of R=0.1 would have a bigger effect than 40 weeks at R=0.9
0.1^4 < 0.9^40
Is it beyond science to engineer and unleash a new Covid variant that is 100 times more infectious but completely harmless to speed up the vaccination process?
Is it beyond science to engineer and unleash a new Covid variant that is 100 times more infectious but completely harmless to speed up the vaccination process?
Possibly, but dire implications if they nail the 100x more infectious, but screw up the less harmful bit.
There are people wanting to use self-disseminating vaccines in animals… we’re no where near doing similar in humans yet… it’s entirely doable… but morally pretty, well…
Usual caveats about cameras lenses and foreshortening apply.
Cameras can indeed play tricks and these tricks have been used a lot in the media to give a distorted view of events. But I don't think this is one of them. Foreshortening generally occurs with a long telephoto lens. This looks like it was taken on a phone, and it looks genuinely packed...
Leaves me a bit shocked to see pictures like that to be honest. What even is the point of this lockdown when that is allowed to happen?
The problem is were are where we are now. NZ / aus is no good to look to. Its now endemic in our country. its not in theirs. Oh for a government that had locked down properly and hard right at the beginning and if they had we could be like NZ / aus. But we didn't. so wer are where we are.
I agree that this cannot go on for ever. since new year i see more and more folk beginning to fall apart at the seams
However a free for all would mean unacceptable numbers of deaths
I don't have any answers but to hope the vaccines do their job and that we can keep transmission rates down. I also hope in the long run Johnson cops the blame that is his. His negligence has led to many deaths.
On airports - i read a report of somone who had flown into the UK on a multi flight trip. Every other airport proper distancing and screening. In the UK nothing
I like to try as my immediate reaction would have had me banned (possibly a Dibnah ban). Someone somewhere may have found it helpful is my thought process otherwise it's time for a Falling Down moment!
The problem with this little STW echo chamber and its more lockdowntastic members is that in their comfortable WFH bubbles they have no experience of the carnage that is being caused outside.
As an example, someone I know, who used to run a successful catering business specialising in festivals, is now homeless and living in his car as a consequence of these ceaseless lockdowns. There are countless others like this across the country.
Then think of retail - if we continue this cycle of lockdowns, who in their right mind would invest in opening a new retail venture when there is every chance that you’ll be unable to trade for long periods of time? Retail is risky enough at the best of times without introducing additional significant dangers. Ergo, wave goodbye to your town centres, cafes, restaurants, etc.
JP
So, the same question to you; what is your alternative?
Indeed it is a grave situation
As an example, someone I know
Is dead. He was 57. His son is the same age as mine. His wife is on her own, save for the weekly walk with mrs TiRed. He died of covid. Despite a “comorbidity”, it was not his time to go. He was economically active.
The economy will recover. Of that I am in no doubt. People will return to previous behaviours and economic activity.
We have taken the least bad option. It’s not a good option, and deliberation may have made matters worse. But the alternatives are simply not viable. The first job of government is to protect its citizens. That includes those such as your friend, and on that count they have failed. I’m also happy to and expect to have to pay for it. It’s called society.
scotroutes
Full Member
So, the same question to you; what is your alternative?
I asked the same of jj pages back as others have time and again.
If he thinks people in the "echo chamber" here love lockdowns he is seriously mistaken.
So, jj, give us an alternative?
as a consequence of
A failure of support.
I know plenty of people who were in new jobs, or newly self employed, who have fallen through the cracks chasms in government support schemes. And I know a guy whose work not only relied on music festivals, but moving between international music festivals to enable year round work. Now living in his van. Lots of people have not been supported properly.
Near the start of this thread I proposed a shift to a universal basic income for this pandemic, rather than paying people via their employers through furlough. It’s not a very popular alternative it seems. Put I put it out there. How would you support these people JJ? Because their sectors would still be hit by this pandemic even without “lockdown” laws… remember when pubs were open before the first lockdown, but it was made clear to people that to stop the spread they should stay away? The pubs weren’t shut, but they also weren’t coping economically. The hit on people’s livelihoods wouldn’t have been prevented by using just social responsibility rather laws to reduce transmission.
This is always going to be the elephant in the pandemic - what do you propose else?
Plagues 'n' shit have been part of the human experience as far back as it has been recorded - one thing the Romans 'have ever done for us' is record exactly this - let alone what further misery is in our pre-history. Are we to just abandon the progress we have made and revert to carts going down the street crying 'bring out your dead'?
In what manner are we to 'let it rip'?
We could, of course, employ our fabled 'Nightingale Hospital's to discreetly allow our thousands of (what are after all economically useless) citizens to lose their fight against their last breath somewhere conveniently out of the way. So that we don't have to look at them. While they die. It'd be closer to the morgue and everything, just so much more convenient.
How do we administer this?
We can now use our Nightingale Hospitals so that those who keep going on about them can see that they have, after all, been used. Now they can be repurposed as 'Death Centres'. But how are we to now use them?
Obviously we just deny medical treatment of any kind to the over-75s, so they can go directly to the death centre based on age.
But what about when we have admissions of people who are obese? Do we weigh them before farming them out to the Nightingale death centres?
Do we treat Type 1 diabetics in actual hospitals, but send Type 2 diabetics to the Nightingale Death Camp?
We should probably just get rid of the autoimmune crowd straight off the bat?
Someone should start looking at the travel infrastructure - what about cattle-carts to drive down cost?
We're just starting the debate, right?
Personally i'd like to think we could hold our nerve for a bit, get some perspective, and wait for evidence of how the vaccination program is going.
The economy will recover
Yes, it will but many people hit hard won't. Being made redundant over a certain age isn't something many fully recover economically from, and also personally.
Apologies if the ^above is a bit Godwin's, but it gets a bit tiresome to have the same questions debunked about every ten pages. It's not that difficult to understand, is it?
I was reminded earlier that Soylent Green is set in 2022.
Let's not forget that our current Government was plagued early on with a eugenicist 'scandal' amongst its advisors - it doesn't exactly imbue you with confidence that they come from a place of care and compassion.
The problem with this little STW echo chamber and its more lockdowntastic members is that in their comfortable WFH bubbles they have no experience of the carnage that is being caused outside.
Well, personally speaking, I was made redundant in 2016 and just finished some higher education for purposes of a new career, graduating last summer. This pandemic could not have come at a worse time from that POV, and I'm now on Universal Credit (a humiliation) with precious little savings left. If I had a family I would be screwed. If I didn't own my house (thank God I do) I would be screwed again.
I do own part of a small start-up business which hasn't been significant hurt so far by covid, but the business doesn't make money yet.
Another pointless prestidge post.
Most, if not all, of those posting to this thread have a clear awareness of the 'carnage' caused by repeated lockdowns.
The consequences he refers are not limited to retail; is he a shopkeeper? They have been debated at length and in far wider terms than merely retail in the Coronanomics thread.
The post somewhere above asking when would be the best/worst time to affected by this was probably worthy of a thread of its own, but i really feel for you.
As much as i have been supportive of the way this has been handled, i appreciate that it is 'easy' for me to do so, as i have been on furlough since March.
Tbf i earn pretty much f all, so have spent almost a year living on 8/10ths of f all, so i'm not splashing in gravy. But as a family we're treading water, not drowning but waving at least.
I genuinely think that the economic side of this is an irrelevance - it will be the beginning of a new economics.
Tired : Indeed it is a grave situation........
End of thread, That post sums it all up.
I agree. In a top 40 of posts, of which TiRed has more than half the entries that is straight in at number one, and looks like staying there a long time.
The policy is not wrong. Lockdown, kill the virus, get control and restart the economy when safe. It is the least shit of the options. I too worry about the impact in many areas, mental health (mine is bad, my son's is catastrophic right now as I've posted before), future physical health, and so on.
The issue is how it's been implemented. Poor lockdowns with poor adherence, some blame of which goes to public, and some to daft ideas like reopening schools, Christmas, etc. And desperately poor support for so many that are bearing the brunt of economic policies, which in turn leads to the MH and PhysH issues that are coming over the long term. Remember this next time you are asked to put an X in the box.
The virus will be defeated, as a scientist in science I trust. The economy will restart, and in time (a long time, maybe) will recover. Some folk will have a harder time than others as it does and as a society we need to be prepared for that and the lucky ones need to do our part to contribute. I'm not an economist so can't properly follow the arguments about 'household style' budgeting vs 'create more money' - others can do that.
But 100,000 and rising will not recover, nor will their families and spouses and while yes, some would have died anyway in the last year, for many it was not their time. And many many more would be on that count were it not for what we have done and continue to do.
Senior doctors want gap between Covid jabs halved
...in a letter seen by the BBC, the British Medical Association said the gap should be six weeks, saying the policy was "difficult to justify"
The doctors' union said the UK's strategy "has become increasingly isolated internationally" and "is proving evermore difficult to justify".
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55777084
As an example, someone I know, who used to run a successful catering business specialising in festivals, is now homeless and living in his car as a consequence of these ceaseless lockdowns.
Two words: “**** business”
It’s not just the lockdown that did that, it was right-wing dogma and incompetent government.
Even without a legally-mandated lockdown, it’s hard to see festivals being a good business to be in during a pandemic.
The problem with this little STW echo chamber and its more lockdowntastic members is that in their comfortable WFH bubbles they have no experience of the carnage that is being caused outside.
Total bullshit
On the subject of alternatives, has it been discussed yet in depth in this thread the difference between the many nations so far dealing with this successfully, and the mostly Western nations (US, Europe, etc) dealing with it so poorly.
I'm sure it's a subject being analysed very closely but I see little written in any kind of media beyond the whole they're doing it right, we're doing it wrong...
What is the actual scientific consensus on why?
There are some very obvious factors: our propensity for travel and popularity as a destination being one. And we might not be NZ, but this goes well beyond NZ, we're doing worse than just about any other nation on earth despite prior warning, while places like Vietnam and Cambodia appear to be sailing through this. South Korea. China. Singapore. Australia. Etc. Etc.
What has enabled the success of these countries? And are we now beyond adopting their strategies should they be applicable to us?
Presumably by this point we're beginning to build a clear picture of what works and what doesn't by studying and modelling all of the individual approaches, along with the various factors surrounding each.
The problem with this little STW echo chamber and its more lockdowntastic members is that in their comfortable WFH bubbles they have no experience of the carnage that is being caused outside.
several of my friends have fallen thru the gaps causing hardship and distress
this is not as a result of the restrictions tho. this is as a result of poorly implemented restrictions and poorly designed support for people
Some excellent posts up there.
I - all if us in fact - haven't just argued "for lockdown".
We've argued for "an effective lockdown with proper support packages in place".
To suggest otherwise is pretty disappointing. Those of us in our middle class WFH bubbles have kids who's education is suffering, elderly relatives struggling with shielding, friends who have lost jobs and incomes, and partners who are front line keyworkers who are going out to their jobs and potentially bringing home the virus EVERY SINGLE ****ING DAY.
so when we talk about lockdown and support, we do have some real idea what is needed, and how badly it has been handled so far.
All that post by JJ shows (up there) is that the current economic model is not sustainable nor robust enough and we need something different.
I was flabbergasted to see that Cineworld executives think it's a good idea to pay themselves an extra £200 million while they have their businesses shut here and all their staff on furlough/redundant. Read the room fellas, guess where I won't be spending money once the cinemas re-open if this pay deal gets approved?
We’ve argued for “an effective lockdown with proper support packages in place”.
Exactly. I mean, I've been relatively lucky, it hasn't been hard for me. But, I do have a bit of empathy and consideration for others. And I recognise this as a problem that demands competent collective action to deal with effectively. Maybe that's why I'm not a RW covidiot shill spouting ignorant sociopathic nonsense on twitter or in national newspapers.
Anyone else feeling baffled regarding the conflicting news stories about the delay of giving both shots of the vaccine, or is it just me?
Can’t decided if it’s bad news reporting, simply too early to properly tell or the good ol’ snatching defeat from the jaws of victory by the muppets running this circus.
RM.
Government ignoring scientific advice to chase vaccination numbers to make themselves look better in the short term. They don't give a shit whether it's the correct long term decision.
Same as Xmas
Same as the kids going back to school (for a day)
Populism rules again...
Presumably by this point we’re beginning to build a clear picture of what works and what doesn’t by studying and modelling all of the individual approaches
Analysis shows that non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) are effective in controlling contagion. Estimating the degree of NPI effect has suggested some link between severity or restrictions and control (there is an index kept by Oxford University). The UK, falls about midway in this. The effects on the UK epidemic are relatively predictable now.
There are, however significant unknowns. For example; new strains? Are they more transmissible and/or more pathogenic? How does this manifest in data? What are the effect of vaccines? Will they reduce morbidity (strong evidence), mortality (weaker evidence) and what about spread (limited evidende)? And of course the big one? What IS the IFR? What are its predictors and is it different from country to country?
Clearly some countries seem to be hit hard with regards to deaths, whilst others less so. What bearing does underlying health and healthcare have one outcome. In an analysis of European excess mortality I conducted, countries with a poor record in past influenza epidemics, a high reliance on nursing homes and lower per capita spending, has significantly higher excess mortality.
I think you can guess where the UK falls on that scale. The UK sadly is the sick man of Europe, and we are paying for under investment in healthcare and poorer health and higher comorbidities. The US may have slightly higher comorbidity, but better healthcare.
For the record, I predict vaccines will have a large effect on morbidity, mortality and healthcare pressure, but I am not convinced they will have the massive effect on transmission people expect. I hope I’m wrong, but it is healthcare pressure that is keeping us under NPI restrictions, hence the relative optimism from the government. I also believe that cross reactivity to new strains will still afford some protection from disease. Again, less effect on transmission but reduced healthcare burden. I’m optimistic.
[tl:dr] restrictions work, they’re predictable now but there are new unknowns like emergent strains and vaccines. The UK is doing relatively poorly on the death front and this is explained by past decisions.
It really annoys me when 'agreeing with the lockdown' is equated to 'wanting to be locked down'
It's such basic thinking.
I hate being locked down. However, I think that the government didn't do it quickly enough, sufficiently enough and did not execute it well enough.
That's why we still can't see our friends and family. The governments incompetence (and no doubt reacting to the whims of business lobbyists, which is a sign of incompetence in itself) has strung this pandemic out.
Hopefully people remember that next time they place their X, but I guess once again they will think that Labour are coming to rule like Stalin and vote for the silly haired idiot because he let them kill their own grandparents at Xmas.
Senior doctors want gap between Covid jabs halved
And for the record, I fundamentally disagree with the decision on extending the vaccine interval for the Pfizer vaccine. The data does not support it. And it’s my day job to use data to make those decisions at work. It does not pass the “bare-faced cheek test” for me if sat in front of the FDA (my usual test is could I defend this at a face to face regulator meeting).
Thanks TiRed - what are your thoughts about the AZ one?
RM.
TiRed, very surprised that you say US has better healthcare than UK. Better for some, maybe. For the large underclass who are probably already most vulnerable to covid?
And for the record, I fundamentally disagree with the decision on extending the vaccine interval for the Pfizer vaccine. The data does not support it. And it’s my day job to use data to make those decisions at work. It does not pass the “bare-faced cheek test” for me if sat in front of the FDA (my usual test is could I defend this at a face to face regulator meeting).
Somewhat more encouraging news from Israel on single dosing....
https://www.ft.com/content/4d9fe80d-e604-4bbe-b0f8-fd4b8df9b7f1
Edit, link stopped working, but if you google “FT Israel” it should come up. Basically 93% had a strong antibody response after 21 days
A single shot of the BioNTech/Pfizer vaccine produces a robust antibody response within weeks, according to Israeli data that could help inform whether scarce global supplies can be stretched by delaying second doses.
At the Rambam Health Care Campus in northern Israel, 91 per cent of the 1,800 doctors and nurses that received the two dose vaccine showed a major presence of antibodies 21 days after their first shot, before receiving the second dose, according to Michael Halberthal, chief executive of the hospital. A further 2 per cent showed a moderate presence of antibodies.
“If 93 per cent had a major response three weeks after the first injection, this raises a good question, that you might rather be using the first injection on more people” said Dr Halberthal.
At the Sheba Medical Center, similar serological tests at different intervals showed at least 50 per cent of staff with a level of antibodies “above the cut-off point” two weeks after the first jab, said Arnon Afek, the associate director-general of the hospital chain.
The AZ trials used variable revaccination interval. There is data to support a 12 week interval for that vaccine. Hence I am happy with the decision. There are other challenges with the AZ vaccine - efficacy is lower, rechallenge might be an issue if you neutralise the adenovirus and need another. No data on the dose in the elderly. No sterile protection preclinically. But the longer interval is supported by trial data.
Pfizer has no data. They are not supportive. Moderna does have limited data and it looks not bad. Expecting one to follow the other is the foundation of this. I would have tested it in a UK open-label clinical trial. We would know in two months and that would have significant implications world-wide.
Think I get it, cheers for answering my question.
RM.
I would have tested it in a UK open-label clinical trial. We would know in two months and that would have significant implications world-wide.
Surely they are monitoring the 5M people who have had a single jab to see how effective it is?
What’s the uk control group? A randomised controlled trial with informed consent is the answer. People (including my FIL) consented to two doses 21 days apart based on published and approved data that the vaccine would be 94% effective. There is always an ethical consideration here. I’m all for data-driven decisions. But this was not that. It’s based on the timing of four events in a phase 3 trial.
That data from Israel is in line with the early phase trials. A solid immunogenic response from one dose. How long does it last? Does immunity decline faster than with a second dose? What’s the effect 12 weeks compared to two doses? At 24 weeks? 48? Moderna noted in their single dose phase 1 study that antibodies declined faster than they were expecting. They had longer follow-up data in a small number of subjects.
It’s why we do clinical trials. To control for confounding variables. In the uk, we won’t be taking 5m blood samples to test the titer before we redose. I hope we are taking some! What will we compare with?
In a month, if anyone is asking themselves how the South Africa super-evil-killer-variant made its way into the UK, it turns out that provided you're a "key worker" you become clean the moment you turn up at work after arrival in the UK.
So land in UK -> go home to self isolate -> 24 hours later report to work -> quarantine ends.
You can't make this shit up.
JJ, Instead of living in his car, could he not get a job at a supermarket and earn money to pay rent? (I guess maybe South of England financially that'd be harder than up here in the North West). It's what I've had to do, music career gone so it's either hand back the keys to my mortgage company, or swallow some pride and get a minimum wage job. Seems like a better option than being homeless.
@Tired - Agreed it’s not ideal. We do have 450K+ who have had the correct 2 doses, so hopefully they are monitoring the proportion of 2 dose vs 1 dose vs no dose on hospital admissions and new positive tests.
Do we know anything about how robust the vaccine supply chain is? What is the risk that the gap between vaccines is pushed beyond 12 weeks for some, due to supply chain issues?