Forum menu
Tom-B
Free Member@dawson I think that it’s fairly widely accepted that there are zero staff available for the nightingale. I’ve seen several people now dismiss them as basically publicity stunts from lockdown 1 to make it seem like the government was doing something useful.
They weren't. It's just that people don't quite understand the one job they were for. They were for when hospitals collapse, so that there would be an alternative to having people die in the car park. Think "life boat"- if your ship sinks, you'll be very glad for the lifeboats but that doesn't mean they're a good alternative to a ship or you ever want to be in one.
As it worked out, we never quite needed them but that doesn't mean it was a bad idea. TBF it was one of the few times that this government ever seemed to understand that things could go very, very badly. We should be very glad they weren't needed but the lifeboats aren't a waste of money just because the ship made it to port.
Dawson
Poole and Bournemouth hospital are moving patients to Exeter nightingale
What the local tv didnt say was who, why or how many. Well the why is obvious, both hospitals over capacity and no rooms left, 600 staff off sick or isolated
Put another way, the report did not say if it was vovid, cancer, accident or mums to be that were having to be relocated, about 80 miles ish fyi.
I don’t think you mean that, you mean 1.9% of cases are in the 80s age bracket.
I suspect the 1.9% in the second column relates to the percentage of people in that age group. Nothing to do with infection rates
Also on the subject of risk, a few weeks back I was getting a bit stressed about covid so to get things in perspective I checked the stats for my 45-49 male demographic. From memory there were 400 odd covid deaths last year and around 3-4X that for cancer in that age group. It certainly made me feel a bit better, I’m sure most people in my age group don’t spend their waking hours stressing about the cancer risk even though it is significantly more likely to get you than covid.
Has this been done?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55733527
Oh, of you want one, they are around £20 on Prime etc.
Silent Hypoxia
With Covid, we were admitting patients with oxygen levels in the 70s or low-or-middle 80s," said Dr Matt Inada-Kim, a consultant in acute medicine at Hampshire Hospitals.
He told BBC Radio 4's Inside Health: "It was a really curious and scary presentation and really made us rethink what we were doing."
If oxygen levels drop to 93% or 94%, then people speak to their GP or call 111. If they go below 92%, people should go to A&E or call 999 for an ambulance.
Government to give out little blood oxygen machines to help diagnose "silent hypoxia" before the person gets low oxy levels and has a likely worse outcome in hospital.
Basically allows the person to get help earlier on.
I bought one last February and it was a God send when my mother seemed ill the day after having her Pfizer jab.👍
In other news... This is how one person could break the chain of infection but chose to break rule 1 in a big way instead...
2 people in the local coop I went to today have only just returned to work after Covid.
One caught it from her daughter.... who caught it from her manager (not at the coop) that was ill but went to work anyway *before* he got the result of the test back. He was positive.
What a total c***.
hat was ill but went to work anyway *before* he got the result of the test back. He was positive.
What a total c***.
work on a NHS MH unit, one of the staff on. a linked ward got a positive text confirmation at 5am during a night shift
^^Similar happened with someone working in a lab with my other half a few weeks back.
To play devils advocate.....during a period of unprecedented demand, do you think that it might be possible that supermarket managers are under just a slight bit of pressure at the minute?! ....and do you think that there's somebody readily available to step in at a moments notice to keep a supermarket open so that everyone can do their 'essential shopping'.
^^Wasn't a supermarket manager mate, totally unrelated to the co-op other than it infected at least one person there through the chain of infection.
Apologies, my wording probably wasn't that clear.
The Scottish equivalent has been busy with other procedures, freeing up the normal hospitals for Covid cases.
The SECC one?
Sorry, just how big a spike did you expect? Around 1200 deaths a day currently.
Millions die every year. These statistics are meaningless without any context.
So as some examples, a typical STWer of 45 years of age is making up 7.9% of cases, but if they so catch it, its only a 0.4% chance of death. (normal chance of death would be ~0.3% in a typical year)
For your typical 80 year old parents, its currently a 1.9% chance you’ll contract Covid, but a 37.5% chance they will die (compared to the usual ~15%)
So basically, the risks of dying from Covid are actually minimal unless you're old or have some sort of underlying health condition. The response to this pandemic is increasingly looking hysterical and totally disproporate.
At what point will we have to decide that living a life where you get fined to see family and friends and can't do anything accept what's considered 'essential' by what has essentially become an elective dictatorship is justfied for a virus, which if you're fit and healthy, has virtually no chance of killing you?
I read that Johnson et al. are gaslighting us again by saying lockdowns might go on into the summer. Matt Hancock said today "this virus is a deadly threat to us all" - total BS. Alarm bells should be ringing here loud and clear, yet the narrative in media is only more of it.
Having reviewed information about the vaccine programs it's becoming clear that they are no silver bullet and will likely mitigate the situation rather than 'solve' it. So what's left? Lockdowns every winter? A constant lockdown? Social distancing forever?
A few points.
We will be at 100,000 deaths (official) within a few days, and this figure has been considerably reduced by the restrictions we've all been living under. There has been plenty of informed comment on the number of 'excess deaths', if you need some context. And, just to labour the point, that is WITH lockdowns. As you may or may not have noticed, even with restrictions, our hospital capacity has been pretty much overwhelmed. When your hospital capacity is overwhelmed, death rates in all age groups rise significantly because access to care is compromised. Now imagine what our hospitals would look like right if we weren't so 'hysterical' and let people just get on with it.
This also applies to non-covid medical emergencies. Suffer a serious injury or illness, and you need the NHS staff to provide adequate care. That won't be there in an optimal way if we ease restrictions.
So that is a couple of ways in which removing lockdowns would potentially increase the risk to all age groups. Basically, if you allow the NHS to fall over through sheer pressure, outcomes for everyone fall off a cliff.
As for seeing your friends and families, and accepting the uncontrolled spread of this virus, sooner or later the contacts you have will increase the chance of it reaching a vulnerable person, either through age or medical condition. Your elderly relatives and neighbours have to use the same shops and surgeries as you do.
This won't last forever, vaccines will offer enough protection to resume normal activities eventually, although yes, we may see some milder restrictions when demand on the NHS is at its winter peak. It's not a hysterical response by the government, if anything it has been an underwhelming one. Our government has been too terrified of the small number of people who whine about lockdowns and 'muh freedom' to lock down early enough and hard enough, and the result has been a failure to suppress the virus enough in between peaks. This, among other things, is why we have the worst fatality rate in the world, and why we are so deeply in the shit right now, economically and in terms of lives lost.
Fat mountain. How many old peoples deaths are acceptable to you?
The whole point of the restictions is not to protect the individual. Its for the individual to protect the population of vulnerable
LOL at the latest gossip about giving £500 to anyone who tests positive. It'll just encourage get togethers!
£200 fine for meeting - £500 if you test positive - £300 profit! Nice one! 🙂
@fatmountain; did write something very rude, won’t bother suffice to say, come down to my GP surgery and come and talk to the pts who’ve lost parents sisters brothers, or who are struggling to just sit upright in bed because of the effects of this. And that’s WITH all the restrictions we’ve put in place.
We’re all tired of it, we all don’t want to wear masks and hug our friends and families, but indulge your stupid conspiracy horse shit somewhere else you muppet
nickc, so for trying to understand the statistics I'm a conspiracy theorist now? I want to understand facts I'm not interested in your anecdotal emotive 'horse shit'.
ndulge your stupid conspiracy horse shit somewhere else you muppet
and here we go again. I disagree, quite vehemently with Fatmountain's post / suggestions. There was a time when even if I didn't actually agree, I was a long way back towards worrying about the balance and I still am, on mental health, long term poverty, etc. But the evidence that despite lockdowns, etc. the death toll is now 100K and rising has convinced me this is the path.
Apart from a couple of comments about hysteria and gaslighting, etc., FM's questions are still reasonable (although have been answered countless times now, do you own research, etc.) and martinhutch has responded beautifully.
Shouting muppet at anyone with a different opinion doesn't win arguments. Debunk with facts, not abuse.
I’m not interested in your anecdotal emotive ‘horse shit’
100,000 deaths means little to many people. Listening to a few people who have lost loved ones may be anecdotal, but it is also more human. You can then imagine those stories being told over and over, by half a million people, to understand some of the scale of the problem that is being dealt with. Or…
These statistics are meaningless without any context.
We had the early warning that some others did not. We have few land borders, unlike others. We have the scientific and medical resources and people, that some do not. We should be leading the world as regards handling this pandemic, but we are not. Why not?
Our government has been too terrified of the small number of people who whine about lockdowns and ‘muh freedom’ to lock down early enough and hard enough, and the result has been a failure to suppress the virus enough in between peaks. This, among other things, is why we have the worst fatality rate in the world, and why we are so deeply in the shit right now, economically and in terms of lives lost.
It is understandable if some people get impatient and angry when there are still people saying…
The response to this pandemic is increasingly looking hysterical and totally disproporate.
‘essential’ by what has essentially become an elective dictatorship
if you are of the opinion that what we have is an elective dictatorship, then yes, you’re indulging in fantasy conspiracy horse shit.
I like to think logically. So what benefit to the Governments of the world does enforcing lockdowns give? Other than cause they can? Aimed at FM and those who believe that the Governments have a real choice in this situation.
Shouting muppet at anyone with a different opinion doesn’t win arguments.
IIRC nickc is a GP/works in a GP surgery so is far closer to the effects of this than many of us, and is one of the many people in the NHS who are under a huge amount of pressure right now. I can understand why he might be a bit quicker to react to that sort of comment from someone.
Is anyone still watching the coronavirus briefings. They just seem to be here is s gimic for you all to talk about tommorow and we will now just avoid and not answer any questions and just repeat the buzz work we all learn this morning.
Haven't bothered for some time now.
The reports on the BBC I've seen from the front line are terrifying. And while I have sympathy for people whose mental health has suffered because of lockdowns, the people I am really concerned about are the clinicians who are being traumatised day after day in our hospitals. One day doing what they have had to do for months would break most of us.
So I currently have zero ****s to give about people whinging, looking for loopholes or trying to manoeuvre the statistics to make this look like anything other than the utter shitshow it is.
I don't agree all of what fatmountain says, but it's not all wrong.
The virus does pose a tiny risk to large amounts of the population, that is fact. Yes, the risk is that you pass it on to someone of higher risk, but from a purely personal point of view, the risk for many is low.
And at some point, the populous does need to move to some sort of normality. We need things to look forward to, we need to see others, we can't keep like this forever. Look at the state of the road at the moment, people are already flexing it. Parts of the populous have been hung out to dry, that can't continue.
The vaccine rollout is clearly positive, but what's the solution if it doesn't work as we hope? Lockdown forever? Increased NHS capacity? Indefinite shielding for the elderly.
I've said before, the government could really help a lot of people if they gave us goals or end dates. "When we reach an r-rate of x/have given x number of vaccines/there are x number of deaths/cases per day then these restrictions lift. We expect this to take x weeks/months". Without this it feels relentless, it's super tough on peoples mental health and with no end in sight, many will say "sod it, I'm going to break the rules".
LOL at the latest gossip about giving £500 to anyone who tests positive. It’ll just encourage get togethers!
Yes I can imagine- "I'm 22 years old, relatively fit, just lost my job and absolutely skint - how soon can I get a positive test?"
The government did say it wasn't going to happen though.
A lot of people are not isolating or getting tested when they have symptoms because they can't afford not to work, many workers are not paid sick pay or are self employed/zero hours contracts,£500 is not a lot if it's all you have to live on for 2 weeks
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/nov/26/matt-hancock-people-work-when-ill-sick-pay
Anyone who tests positive for Covid-19 in England could be paid £500 to self-isolate under proposals to be discussed by ministers
Where the **** has my horse gone, shut that door!!
Economic forecasters are never right about anything, ever.
Yes a stellar record predicting 11 of the last 3 recessions! 😉
Here's a cunning plan. Leak a proposed "£500 quid per positive test" plan in mid-January, say it will probably be introduced at the end of February. Covidiots who fancy a free £500 play it ultra-safe until the launch date so they don't miss out. Ministers shelve the idea shortly before it was due to be introduced.
4D chess!
There may be a few unintended consequences, obviously, but I'm sure they've thought of them.
The virus does pose a tiny risk to large amounts of the population, that is fact. Yes, the risk is that you pass it on to someone of higher risk, but from a purely personal point of view, the risk for many is low.
Low until you absolutely must have healthcare and there's no bed for you, no fit medic and you die from the effects of COVID not from COVID.
It's not hard to understand, even the Government Ministers understand it and these are people that would have problems finding both arse cheeks with their own hands in a well lighted room!
That REACT study is shocking, an absolutely terrible bit of analysis. Their observational strategy and analysis could not possibly have detected the effect of the current lockdown, to present their results as if they tells us that lockdown isn't working is just...awful. As bad as any of the nonsense coming from the lockdown sceptics.
Lockdown is actually working very well and the effect on deaths will soon be very clear. Keep with it!
Low until you absolutely must have healthcare and there’s no bed for you, no fit medic and you die from the effects of COVID not from COVID.
Not a dig at @Sandwich, but:
If, at 9-10 months into a pandemic, with 90,000+ UK dead and wall to wall coverage of a straining health system AND health care professionals crying out the healthcare system is on its knees, then you, trying to explain this issue to somebody, is twice wasted: You are not going to inform them and, lor' bless 'em, they are never, ever be going to be informed.
Thanks @thecaptain. This place is a welcome source of reassurance at times when what's left of our national media is sadly lacking.
@ marinhutch, See it worries me that 'muh freedoms' are so casually swept aside. Freedoms are hardwon but easily lost. Freedom is fundamental. We fought wars over freedoms. Millions died for them. How many are dying now? Not that many that wouldn't have died otherwise as far as I can see. Each death is a tradegy for someone, of course, but objectively, an eighty year old passing on in a nursing home is not a tradegy, that's just life. People die all the time. Last year 4 million died of aids. 18 million died of cancer. 4 million died of air pollution (governments not so worried about those deaths, however). We try to mitigate the risks. No one wants to lose loved ones, but life can't be sacrificed because of death. That's not the way we should live.
Now imagine what our hospitals would look like right if we weren’t so ‘hysterical’ and let people just get on with it.
Yes, but for how long? Is another 4-5 years of this acceptable under current measures? Also, when the Health Secretary says it is a "deadly threat to us all", that to my mind is hysterical. Police using drones and then nameing/shaming people who went for a walk is hysterical. Police dying lakes red is hysterical. Fining two young women for meeting and then saying that a hot drink consitutes a picnic is hysterical. The media coverage is hysterical.
I totally agree with all your points about the healthcare system martinhutch otherwise - but I'd like to see the evidence that, as I said on page 606, is it a chronic shortage of staff and mismanagement, that is the problem rather than covid-19 alone (biggest ICU ward built in London but empty since no staff to take care of it - how much of that is the Tory-tabloid driven 'hostile environment' and Brexit?) That's not to say C-19 is not a disaster for the NHS, but if that's the main reason I'm not allowed to live my life, I want to see evidence of that. I want to understand it because the accepting these measures when there seems to be no acceptable reason for doing so is detrimental to one's mental health.
So I currently have zero **** to give about people whinging, looking for loopholes or trying to manoeuvre the statistics to make this look like anything other than the utter shitshow it is
I think you undermine what was otherwise a pretty reasonable response. I am not manoevuring the statistics, I'm trying to understand them. I questioned in my last post why 2020 only saw 2,000 more deaths than in 2018 - I think that's important to understand. Hospital admissions seem stable. The NHS is a shitshow every January/-March. What I'm interested in is what is the future of it given the fact that vaccines are likely not going to have the impact the general population is hoping for? C-19 is clearly not going away anytime soon.
if you are of the opinion that what we have is an elective dictatorship, then yes, you’re indulging in fantasy conspiracy horse shit.
nickc, of course it is - this government routinely flouts and breaks the law with total impunity. Please see the Goodlaw Project who are about the only people trying to challenge the government. "Chumocracy" is misleading. It's outright corruption. It's completely illegal. Breaking it's own laws is a hallmark of a dictatorship. Acting with impunity is.
The vaccine rollout is clearly positive, but what’s the solution if it doesn’t work as we hope? Lockdown forever? Increased NHS capacity? Indefinite shielding for the elderly.
My thoughts exactly. When is this going to stop? It is said a government loves a good crisis. The thin democracy we have in the UK is under threat - protesting now made illegal because of covid. I don't like the direction this is going at all. People talk about the reasons. Well passing laws willy-nilly, no parlimentary oversight, revoking fundamental rights and freedoms, using C-19, a generally mild disease for the vast majority, to kick in people's doors? How about restructuring the economy? The uber-rich are absolultey creaming it in. Tory donors are having a field day. And don't get me wrong, I'm saying this was planned. I'm not saying this is a conspiracy. What I'm saying is that if you start to question it you immediatley get shutdown, insulted, etc. I'm glad other people are starting to question it to. Such momumental changes to the way we live need questioning.
Fat mountain. How many old peoples deaths are acceptable to you?
I've no idea that can actually be answered but normally we don't close down society and destroy peoples' livlihoods and mental health because people get old, sick and die. Young people are paying immensely for this crisis. Even in my demographic (medium/high income, middle-class, white, male, mid-30s) my mates are all depressed and saying their children are suffering too. The students I work with are all sat at home in what should have been the best years of their life. 1/4 are report feeling 'dispair' and 'hopelessness'. Students are being fined life-changing sums of money for seeing their mates. Some of my (international) students are sat in empty halls of residences, totally isolated and alone. There is virtually no mental health support whatsoever. Like I said, C-19 seems here to stay and we're going to have to learn to live with it. The question is how.
Millions don't die in the UK every year. It's about 600,000. Excess deaths by the time we are a year into this will probably be pushing an extra 100,000 on top of that.
And that is with these restrictions.
Roughly 1 in 750 people in the UK have died as a result of Covid in the last 9 months. We are well on the way to that being 1 in 500.
And that is with these restrictions.
If I don't get my freedoms back when this is over, I'll take to the streets quite happily. But in the meantime, they can have these freedoms and quite a few more, if it gives the NHS a chance to get back on top of the situation and stop people dying.
Well, clearly that's worldwide! And good luck taking to the streets now it's illegal.
questioned in my last post why 2020 only saw 2,000 more deaths than in 2018
Ah... one of you "interesting questions" that isn't trying to "trying to manoeuvre the statistics to make this look like anything other than the utter shitshow it is"?
Show us your figures, and sources, please.
I questioned in my last post why 2020 only saw 2,000 more deaths than in 2018
Google "uk deaths 2020"
First result: Link
Are you tying or lashing out (Edit: p'raps "venting" might be a more appropriate word)? Lashing (venting) out, right now, is (mostly) fine by me, given the times.
I posted them on page 606
I’m looking at the death rates for the UK annually (source ONS).
In 2018, there were 541,589 deaths registered in England and Wales, an increase of 1.6% compared with 2017 (533,253); this is the highest annual number of deaths since 1999.
In 2019, there were 530,841 deaths registered in England and Wales, a decrease of 2.0% compared with 2018 (541,589 deaths). Taking into account the population size and age structure, age-standardised mortality rates (ASMRs) in England and Wales decreased significantly, by 3.7% for males and 4.7% for females.
In England, the number of deaths up to 11 December 2020 was 543,335, which is 65,251 (13.6%) more than the five-year average. Of these, 68,341 deaths (12.6%) mentioned COVID-19.
ONS. Correct me if I'm wrong. I am happy to be informed, to be wrong, to have been mistaken since it aligns me a bit closer to what we call consensus reality.
Perhaps fatmountain could quantify exactly what he would be like to be doing so we can assess how many life years for other people's mums/dads/grandparents etc are expendable to help him 'live his life'. I feel we need a yardstick for his individual tragedy which makes all these other tragedies worthwhile.
Correct me if I’m wrong.
Well, one of those figures isn't a complete year, is it.
this suggests that 2020 is >600,000
Perhaps fatmountain could quantify exactly what he would be like to be doing so we can assess how many life years for other people’s mums/dads/grandparents etc are expendable to help him ‘live his life’. I feel we need a yardstick for his individual tragedy which makes all these other tragedies worthwhile.
Emotive empty rhetoric designed to shame rather than engage with the questions raised in my last post.
Kelvin, I noticed, but it's most of the year. Got any other explanations?
Google “uk deaths 2020”
First result: Link
@BaronVonP7 Have you read the article?
Its conclusion is:
VERDICT
False. The figures cited in this post are partially inaccurate and do not demonstrate that there were fewer deaths in 2020 than 2019, nor that the pandemic is fake. Age-standardised mortality rates in England are “statistically significantly higher than in all years between 2009 and 2019”, according to ONS. Figures registered by Dec. 5 show there were 43,987 more deaths between Jan. 1 and Nov. 30 in England than the five-year average and 1,981 more deaths in Wales.