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When I analyse my reaction it’s more about anger and frustration at inept government response making things worse than they needed to be, than the actual threat of the virus itself.
Though there have been many days these last 10 months when I’ve got really close to phoning the doctor to see if they’ll represcribe the Citalopram I needed before.
That's two of us. It's the sheer venal incompetence that is grinding me down.
People going out to McDs and such used to stress me out but after almost a year of this I just can’t live with that level of anxiety I just do what ever I can to keep myself and partner safe.
It's all for nothing though if others don't do their part.
Unfortunately that requires competent leadership and a clear statement of what we can and can not do. There's currently no room for airy-fairy guidance and we may have to restrict some freedoms short-term to achieve the long-term freedom that we all crave. (Requires competent leadership with a backbone).
Anyone else feel like we’re slowly sliding into some distopian nightmare?
That's STW for you since time immemorial. It's long been the case that being 'over-biked', drinking the 'wrong coffee', not owning a teutonic turbo-diesel estate with winter tyres on opposing corners and racing slicks on the others are pretty much capital offences. Yet every day I see people blatantly ignoring this guidance and it really grinds my nuts.
And with that I'll leave you to return to Dystopia. Don't forget to get tested first mind and make sure you take an Aeropress, freshly roasted artisan beans and a proper manual burr grinder in your hand-luggage just in case 🙂
It’s all for nothing though if others don’t do their part.
im just simply offering up the perspective if people are (which in the MCds example is) operating within the guidance and law then they are doing their part. However they may not be doing their part to the level that some believe they should - which is likely the case of people who say they only go to the supermarket and a short exercise a day. I do agree that the lack of clarity around whats local and essential likely causes a lot of anxiety and stress for people, but like you say that requires the tories making themselves accountable rather than vague rule then blame people they dont follow them. Anyway, i risk derailing thread this so wont say anymore.
that requires the tories making themselves accountable rather than vague rule then blame people they dont follow them
This. Well put Joe.
If McDs are told by the government that they can open (in the middle of a “lockdown” with the NHS stretched to breaking point) then self righteous idiots like me imploring people not to go is hot useless expended air. As is also the case for every minister telling people to “stay at home” and “act as if you have the virus” while supporting keeping non-essential places away from the home open for people to head to. They are trying to have their cake and to eat it.
So first post from me on this thread and it's to moan about my wife.
All through this pandemic she has criticized rule breakers for being blatantly selfish / stupid. Well level 4 now bans unnecessary journeys as part of necessary journeys, she doesn't believe that applies to her urgent need to deliver a baby present!
Spent all morning in a heated debate about it, but she went anyway.
Anyone else feel like we’re slowly sliding into some distopian nightmare?
I imagine the good people of Eyam felt the same about the plague. But they got through by collectively doing the right thing.
How on earth do you get from that to an R of 1.5?!
Sheer numbers of contacts times duration you can pass it on. If 2% have it, then your chance of meeting someone randomly without it is 0.98. But suppose you meet 100 people randomly in a day. Easy on a packed commuter train with 200 people in a coach.
Then your chance of never meeting it is 0.98^100. So your chance of meeting AT LEAST one infected person in those 100 contacts is 1 - 0.98^100, which is 87%! Per day. It’s the combinatorics that gonna gecha!
But they got through
Technically only half of them.
I follow rule 1 and read, try and learn and obey the rules. That trip to give baby presents? Well it could be argued it’s unnecessary. But a stressed new mother at home needing help? That’s a visit for care. That’s allowed. Rule 1 is the filter used to parse whether I’m taking the p!ss.
I missed my eldest nephew’s 18th birthday this week. His mother (my “Irish twin”) died five years ago next week. Of course I wanted be there for him. Desperately. Sent him a bottle of something alcoholic and had a FaceTime.
Spent all morning in a heated debate about it, but she went anyway.
@amatuer - we're currently isolating, having been really good about not meeting folk since Scottish lockdown in November, we had a small house fire before new year, the oven died this week so I couldn't cook my wife a birthday cake properly and more going on.
It was a proper act of both friendship and charity for a friend to knock on the door last night unannounced and leave a birthday cake, card and a couple of treats for us all. She stood 10m away at the end of our drive and chatted for a few minutes.
There is (certainly in our Scottish guidance) provision for travel to assist with care and charity.
YWMMV
Technically only half of them.
Beaten to it by TiRed, as ever, although his mathematical answer to the R number question is probably better than mine, which would have been schools, workplaces ignoring guidance and idiots ignoring guidance, in that order.
Just want to say that I've disagreed with joepud on a lot of his posts around the lockdown, but I think he's pretty spot on with his last couple up there.
I know TiRed was only giving a few examples for fun but from what I've read it is probably better to think of the household transmission as being 1/3rd chance that the infected person sprays the virus around liberally (and infects all or nearly all household members) and 2/3 chance that they don't produce much. I doubt that the number of infectees follows a binomial distribution. This would mean the situation where no-one else caught it would be more common than it would be if each person was infected (or not) independently with a 1/3rd chance.
Ok tiRed, am I going to Portugal at the end of May?
A question that would have made zero sense 12 months ago but now is understood by everyone reading it.
If McDs are told by the government that they can open (in the middle of a “lockdown” with the NHS stretched to breaking point) then self righteous idiots like me imploring people not to go is hot useless expended air. As is also the case for every minister telling people to “stay at home” and “act as if you have the virus” while supporting keeping non-essential places away from the home open for people to head to. They are trying to have their cake and to eat it.
It's not wasted effort raising awareness of the government failing the people.
They're putting the profits of a multinational ahead of the value of life of its workers and their families.
This one's upset me cos it's hit a friend who works there.
She's not furloughed any more and has to go in as a key worker, and so her kid has to go into school at the same time, all so self entitled idiots can make their daily essential journeys to McDonald's.
Ridiculous.
I think the key thing is they are your rules imposed upon yourself.
Here in Wales they are the ones breaking the rules. We're allowed out for 4 purposes: work (if you can't work from home), exercise, essential shopping and carer duties. You can go out as often and for as long as you wish but they do ask you to limit trips as much as possible. There is no way that you can class going for a crappy fast food meal as essential.
Plus this:
It’s all for nothing though if others don’t do their part.
For the last few weeks I've been caring for my parents so that they can limit their risks of catching it or anything else as they are both in the vulnerable groups. I'm currently not doing so due to my dad having a cataract operation on the 21st so he's meant to be isolating. He's not though, going up to the local shops most mornings to get milk and bread while walking the dog. I've tried to get him to see sense as he's upsetting my mum by doing so, even resorting to asking the shop owners to politely remind him he shouldn't be going out (they're long time family friends) but all I've had back is that I'm being unreasonable in trying to make him obey the rules, this is despite two shops nearby having had to close due to outbreaks in them. Apparently there is no risk as it's a rural area and no-one has died there of it yet. Demonstrably untrue as the death count in the town is 4 that I know of. The attitude of the majority of the town now is that the vaccines have arrived so it's over now and the battle is won, they're letting their guard down at a critical time. I see the same here at home with groups going shopping or the McDonald's or the park, multiple households sharing cars and people having visitors in the evening indoors. I'm trying very hard to just ignore all of this and just focus on doing my bit but it's getting to the point where it feels pointless.
This thread and particularly reading TiREd's posts and stories like the one above from matt_outandabout have really helped keep me sane(ish) during all of this and maybe it is a bit of the January Blues making it seem worse but it does feel like we're failing at the last hurdle. Yes you can pin the blame on the poor leadership from Westminster but you can also pin it where Westmenster will: on people not following the rules and doing the correct thing. This is not over at all and we need to keep the end goal in mind all of the time.
we may have to restrict some freedoms short-term to achieve the long-term freedom that we all crave
Define short term. A year for example, is that short term?
My view is that there is a perspective to be had on this. I’m 40, my 41st year won’t be much different to be 42nd. But, to my 75 year old parents every year matters, the same for those in their teens and probably early 20’s. Losing a year for some groups is huge and the longer this goes on, the more they will question why they’re doing it.
Unrelated, I really don’t get the anger at going to the drive thru. Seriously, push that anger to the government, push it to morons like Laurence Fox up there, a drive thru is not a big deal.
rather sad reminder, not that we need one, that it not just the "old" that die of COVID came across from a Martin Rowson tweet
https://twitter.com/MartinRowson/status/1350043101772083201
@reluctantjumper - I'm definitely feeling January blues.
Compared to so many, I am so fortunate however. Cv19 has impacted us, but in no way as severely as it could, and has done, for so many others.
Stick in there. Before we know it we'll be posting sunny bike pics...
I’m trying very hard to just ignore all of this and just focus on doing my bit but it’s getting to the point where it feels pointless.
The majority are trying really hard which is why it isn't pointless at all.
Not for those feeling anxious. Worrying that they feel it might be needed, but do they need protection from civil claims as well?
BBC News - Covid-19: Protect us from unlawful killing charges - medics
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55689388
I really don’t get the anger at going to the drive thru.
Do you think there would be the same anger if it was a drive-thru gourmet coffee bar?
I also think there is an issue about their not being a quantifiable goal for the restrictions. I think it would help people if the government would say that once we get x percentage of people vaccinated and the r-number down to y then we can stop lockdown.
Would help with the sort of endless, grinding futility of it - give people something to focus on. I think many people aren't really engaging any more due to the sort of endless feeling of it.
We've all basically sacrificed a yea of our lives for this, one we won't get back - I can see why people are thinking YOLO and just doing it.
I also think there is an issue about their not being a quantifiable goal for the restrictions. I think it would help people if the government would say that once we get x percentage of people vaccinated and the r-number down to y then we can stop lockdown.
Would help with the sort of endless, grinding futility of it – give people something to focus on. I think many people aren’t really engaging any more due to the sort of endless feeling of it.
We’ve all basically sacrificed a yea of our lives for this, one we won’t get back – I can see why people are thinking YOLO and just doing it.
I could not agree more with this and have been saying it since March. I know we can’t have set timescales so give us a goal with a rough time around it. Something like “we need that R at ..., if all goes to plan this will take 6 weeks, but we will stay in this state until it gets to that number and stays there for a fortnight”. Or “we need to vaccinate x million people, at x thousand per day that should take 8 weeks, when that happens this will happen to the restrictions”..
People will still be annoyed but at least they’ll have an end goal.
Do you think there would be the same anger if it was a drive-thru gourmet coffee bar?
You make an interesting point. Snobbish behaviour on STW? Can’t see that myself...
Define short term. A year for example, is that short term?
There's 3 islands (one a continent) in the Southern Hemisphere that have the answer to that. (Clue it's not a year with proper leadership that is not afraid to lockdown hard for as long as it took).
You make an interesting point. Snobbish behaviour on STW? Can’t see that myself…
As mentioned up there somewhere we have a family acquaintance that is working in a coffee take-away and not that's not good either.
Well. That's no riding for me until 22nd Jan.
Wife tested positive, along with 5 others from her work after they all had to restrain a student (special needs school). Student had been allowed home over Xmas.
Mild symptoms so far, and I'm feeling flu-y so went for a test today.
Just noticed it's almost exactly a year since my first 'Oh shit, is this the one?' moment about news coming out of Wuhan.
So happy Covidersary, everyone! 🙂
Sheer numbers of contacts times duration you can pass it on. If 2% have it, then your chance of meeting someone randomly without it is 0.98. But suppose you meet 100 people randomly in a day. Easy on a packed commuter train with 200 people in a coach.
Surely that situation is very much the rare exception these days?
I’ve been a good boy and been in an enclosed space with a grand total of four people other than immediate family in the past 10 months. So the ones that bring the average up must be really taking the piss.
Unless you are frontline NHS etc, I can’t see how anyone can infect 1.5 other people without being actively negligent🤷♂️
I doubt that the number of infectees follows a binomial distribution. This would mean the situation where no-one else caught it would be more common than it would be if each person was infected (or not) independently with a 1/3rd chance.
Sorry, I have no idea what this means😂
I also think there is an issue about their not being a quantifiable goal for the restrictions. I think it would help people if the government would say that once we get x percentage of people vaccinated and the r-number down to y then we can stop lockdown.
I agree it would be great, but I have some sympathy with the Gov on the challenges to this
- unpredictable things happen; good scientists look at evidence even if inconvenient and adjust their theories in light of it. We don't know what's going to happen, will the vaccine stop transmission, will it last for 5 months or 10? and so on.
- culturally they are terrified of making a u-turn, and we are to blame for that. Every time they adjust policy in the light of new evidence the press, oppo, public queue up to shout 'U-Turn!' as if it was a weakness. Absolute dogmatism is to blame for a lot of the mess we find ourselves in; saying that you made a mistake and you want to rethink is difficult but vastly under-rated.
- from a public PoV, being told that this ends at Easter or when the R number is less than whatever....if that changes for good reason, it's like an extra kick in the balls and you lose conformance thereafter.
I think it would help people if the government would say that once we get x percentage of people vaccinated and the r-number down to y then we can stop lockdown.
The public won't like the true facts, I fear
Seeing as its Hancock I fully support death by social media
https://twitter.com/DailyMailUK/status/1350488068462145538?s=20
Daily Mail link but I guess they bid the highest for the video
Screenshot of the smarmy ****
https://twitter.com/readsector/status/1350487203936395265?s=20
Ok tiRed, am I going to Portugal at the end of May?
Going? Maybe. Coming home? Less likely#. There is a reason why Portuguese is the national language in Brazil. If you had said September? I’d say yes.
#in all seriousness, unlike some countries we have allowed our nationals home. Japan did not. At all. No exceptions!
And why is it news that a minister of state takes a walk? I find exercise helps clear my mind.
There's no guidance against going to the park for exercise though?
Exactly, it's a non story, whatever people think of him.
I would go as far as saying I would like such a politician to get fresh air and exercise. It might help his decision making through better health and well-being.
(One can but hope. 😂)
Guidance gang
Unless I'm missing the point and there are details in the Mail story that I'm not prepared to click to find out, a minister has followed the guidance to get outside and get some exercise, though I see they are suggesting that Boris said not to go out at all this weekend - which I don't recall him saying?
If he has actually followed the guidance, then I'd really like to see the government give the Mail an absolute public roasting for sending out incorrect and conflicting messaging at a time of a public health emergency.
The Mail have already turned on Boris for his rubbish handling of the pandemic, the government owe them nothing, and while the governments messaging has been a cluster **** throughout, the media on all sides have not helped the situation.
My little moan of the day.
Local shop only allows 4 people in at a time. I'm totally ok with that.👍
So why does a family of 4 need to go in (no children) just so one of them can actually do some shopping?
I'm in the distanced queue outside (mask already on) and can see them through the glass windows. Wandering around, not a care in the world. Finally pay and leave. They bought some bread, eggs and postage stamps and were in there over 8 minutes with the shop to themselves. Yes, I looked at my watch.
Why, just why!?😁
Tbh, if that's my best moan of the day I count that as a win.
I can't read all the way through this thread to see if this has already been covered, but, what's going on Covid wise in places like Africa?
Poverty, corruption, people living close together. Is that an example of the crowd immunity?
How are they coping?
How are they coping?
Better than you might think. Outdoor, lower life expectancy so fewer of the most elderly who are dying. South Africa reports the highest burden.
Why, just why!?
Same reason people in a relatively empty Tesco this morning managed to block an entire aisle by holding onto their trolley with one hand browsing the shelves on the opposite side of the aisle, same reason B & M Bargins, that most essential of stores, was rammed this morning when I drove past.
I would go as far as saying I would like such a politician to get fresh air and exercise. It might help his decision making through better health and well-being.
True but no need for him to go to a park. London parks are mobbed these days so a brisk walk round the streets is a better plan.
– culturally they are terrified of making a u-turn, and we are to blame for that.
Balls. They’re to blame. Utter incompetence and lack of vision and resolution, leading to dithering.