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One good thing for me. I don't feel guilty riding into tier 2 North Yorkshire from tier 3 West Yorkshire.
Here's a handy calculator to figure out when you might get vaccinated..
https://www.omnicalculator.com/health/vaccine-queue-uk
For most of us its going to take a year.
Thats if the virus hasnt mutated by then and decided its bored with taking out old people and ups its lethality by 10% for a laugh..
I can’t find any guidance to say exercise is allowed outside local area or that it is essential. My Google Fu fails me.
exercise with your household (or support bubble) or one other person, this should be limited to once per day, and you should not travel outside your local area.
I'm not sure what the legal definition of local will be, and I suspect that it will be rather vague
Actually the guidance is a bit contradictory
If you do leave home for a permitted reason, you should always stay local in the village, town, or part of the city where you live. You may leave your local area for a legally permitted reason, such as for work.
**** what you think you can get away with without breaking the letter of the restrictions. Rule one. Don’t be a dick.
Also don't be a dick in expecting other people to follow arbitrary rules you've decided they should. If they break the law feel free to complain but otherwise be kind.
Not one that could be reasonably arrived at when it clearly states:
That's why I was asking earlier about difference between tier 4 and lockdown. Tier 4 rules didn't have the local bit. I couldn't see that when I looked earlier.
And just like that the nastiness is back. What is it about these lockdowns that people feel the need to be dickheads about?
TJ
airvent – how about riding those 3 miles – thats the safest of the lot!
Driving 3 miles to ride? utterly ridiculous
Yes and no ....
As per last lockdown the first 1/2m-1m from my house is by far the riskiest COVID wise.
My local loop is either 45min-1hr or 4-5 hours... (70km-80km) [I use it in klm not miles simply cos it feels better to do 80km than 50m]
After the 1st mile I see almost noone... 1st mile I am literally in crowded parks, paths... and pass two kids playgrounds that will be rammed unless I ride on the road - a concept I find equally ridiculous 😉
In the vast scheme of things I'd not feel bad driving to where it's safe.
As soon as you start trying to please everyone life becomes infinitely complicated.
Assuming my hospital appointment is not cancelled tomorrow (they aren't picking up so don't know and presume they are busy so not redialing) I have to get there.
I'd planned to ride ... then there is a "request" from Surrey Hills Residents not to ride into Surrey Hills. Though the hospital is outside the AONB and the "additional counted as AGLV" I'd be passing through 100' here and there several times unless I ride on major A roads.
Part of me is thinking just drive, part of me is thinking just sod the Surrey Hills request ... part of me is thinking should I really be having a non urgent procedure I don't know if I can get the 2nd test in a weeks time and do I want to swallow of load of radioisotopes if I can't get the second scan in a week?
Then..I think back and NOTHING has actually changed since this time yesterday...all the Borisisms are based on old data... infection rate was through the roof here from 2 weeks before XMAS so what's actually different? So I'm left going back to "is it legal" rather than "is it right".
from
If you do leave home for a permitted reason, you should always stay local in the village, town, or part of the city where you live. You may leave your local area for a legally permitted reason, such as for work.
This is guidance, rather than law and should vs must, etc., but seems like intent is there.
So I’m left going back to “is it legal” rather than “is it right”.
You know what to do.
If you do leave home for a permitted reason, you should always stay local in the village, town, or part of the city where you live. You may leave your local area for a legally permitted reason, such as for work.
In various sections it says:
If you do leave home for a permitted reason, you should always stay local in the village, town, or part of the city where you live. You may leave your local area for a legally permitted reason, such as for work
exercise with your household (or support bubble) or one other person, this should be limited to once per day, and you should not travel outside your local area.
You may leave your local area for a legally permitted reason, such as for work.
Exercise – You can continue to exercise alone, with one other person or with your household or support bubble. This should be limited to once per day, and you should not travel outside your local area.
outdoor exercise. This should be done locally wherever possible, but you can travel a short distance within your area to do so if necessary (for example, to access an open space)
What tyres for trying to ride through loopholes?
@poopscoop
Mum’s friends were jabbed at Leybourne- they were having the Pfizer one.
ETA if you’ve got a slot near the end of the day you might get lucky and get a jab yourself it’s due to be binned that day.
you should always stay local in the village, town, or part of the city where you live.
The vagueness has to be there, otherwise those like me who live in a tiny village with no shops or other facilities will quickly run out of supplies. Sadly others use it as a reason to pop to Ikea 60miles away. Back to rule 1...
You know what to do.
What I think I should do is try and cancel the appointment it really isn't urgent or critical.
But then on the other hand OH will presumably (still don't know) be in school tomorrow so in some way's that the last day I feel I can attend without being a risk to others.
then I just slip back into the fact many many people will be popping out for a 6 pack or some hob nobbs because it's legal to go to a shop and I'm left thinking ... what difference does me going to the hospital make?
I'm just being honest and the sort of thing going through my mind and probably many others... I'm really flip flopping forwards and backwards then I look at the £300 fee if I cancel and think about that ... then I think I could phone up and say I think I have symptoms ... then not get charged then I think that's wrong on so many levels.
Then I think .. unless I can get the follow up scan in a week I'm swallowing a load of radio isotopes for nothing (which isn't exactly risk free) and I'm assuming that I probably wouldn't be recommended or allowed to take another dose until say 8 or 16 half lives.
All that goes round and round and then at the end I come to the conclusion ... it's booked and they are expecting me or not. Roll the dice, hope I can get the follow-up in a week???
Meanwhile my riding messenger group is pinging away with tough guys ... and "uh u scared to go ride" comments... well it was I put it on snooze 😉 but just pointing out what others are thinking/saying.
Martinhutch
What tyres for trying to ride through loopholes?
Ah..glad we got the important questions. But tubeless and inserts? What do you weigh and are these hard pack loopholes or loamy ones.
All that goes round and round and then at the end I come to the conclusion … it’s booked and they are expecting me or not. Roll the dice, hope I can get the follow-up in a week???
Oh, your hospital appointment. Sorry, misunderstood. Speak to your clinic. Turn up if they’ll have you. They’ll know better than anyone. My boy is due in next week, we’ll ring them before setting off.
@ FB-ATB
Full MemberMum’s friends were jabbed at Leybourne- they were having the Pfizer one.
ETA if you’ve got a slot near the end of the day you might get lucky and get a
jab yourself it’s due to be binned that day.
Cheers matey!
Watch time looks spot on to me, so live or watch wound forward.
He does look like he had a few drinks though!
Kelvin
Oh, your hospital appointment. Sorry, misunderstood. Speak to your clinic. Turn up if they’ll have you. My boy is due in next week, we’ll ring them before setting off.
This one is really not urgent or critical though. Just a bile readsorbtion test to give some possible options to manage symptoms or not. (and the symptoms aren't that bad... more inconvenient)
If I'm brutally honest I partly went along with the consultant out of interest and curiosity and because I have 3mo of my medical insurance left before redundancy so best get it now.
Possibly a touch more critical than missing a tooth whitening but not much!
lunge
They were just trying to keep a roof over their heads.
This is very true or feed their families.
Rule #1 goes two ways!
Lockdown 3 Aimless Drift.
So here in Staffs they are going ahead with the 2nd dose @ 21 days.
First lot coming back through in the next two days - even without the emotional investment i think it's probably the right thing to do.
This Wednesday, +7 days, and my folks are out the other end.
^^ That's great news for your folks mate, must be a huge weight lifted. Very, very soon anyway.👍
Lockdown 3 Aimless Drift.
Lockdown 33 1/3: The Final Insult
Before you get too excited about what sort of rides you can go on and which takeaways are open....a salient fact....
As many people are going to catch covid in the next two months, as the entire total who have caught it in the past year. Might be a few less if the lockdown is super-effective. Will be more if the lockdown doesn't work well.
If you are remotely keen to avoid catching it, and you can put off what you want to do until the spring, then put it off.
@thecaptain - do you have working or a link for that? I'm not disputing as I think you work in this area, but its the sort of easy soundbite that people will pay attention to if shared with something to back it up
Curious, is this...
As many people are going to catch covid in the next two months, as the entire total who have caught it in the past year.
The total who will catch it and test positive? As opposed to the total who catch it including an estimate for those who didn’t take a test?
do you have working or a link for that?
Back of an envelope calculations - Gov coronavirus site reports 2.7M positive tests to date, spread that total over the next 8 weeks and you've got an average of just over 48K cases per day. We're above that and rising at present (for cases reported per day at least), and if/when the lockdown/vaccination kicks in and cases peak the rate of decline is going to be slower than the rate of growth. So the claim stands up to basic scrutiny.
The vagueness has to be there, otherwise those like me who live in a tiny village with no shops or other facilities will quickly run out of supplies. Sadly others use it as a reason to pop to Ikea 60miles away. Back to rule 1…
If the government would just put Rule #1 into legislation....
It's my own calculation, outlined here:
https://bskiesresearch.wordpress.com/2021/01/04/not-even-half-way-there/
While I'm not an epidemiologist, I am an (internationally quite well-known) expert on model-based forecasting methods in general and this problem isn't a very difficult one. In fact a reader pointed out that LSHTM produced a report with similar numbers:
Note that their one optimistic scenario which has a better outcome was based on a lockdown starting on the 15th Dec, plus 2 million vaccinations a week, and we have already blasted straight past their peak predicted deaths (400 per day) for that scenario.
@thecaptain - funny who you find on here. We have a lot of overlapping contacts.
I can attest that he does know how to model stuff.
I’m not an epidemiologist or a modeller but I struggle to see how a simple SEIR model can give an accurate result in this case. The SEIR model would rely on the same number of contacts for each subject so might work well for say a population of rabbits that have similar behaviour or even to some extent a less lethal human disease like a cold where people don’t modify their behaviour.
What I think we are seeing is about 1/3 of people have a lot of contacts - NHS staff, shop workers and of course covidiots, another 1/3 have pretty limited contacts and the final 1/3 have turned into hermits. Therefore the 1-1/R point required for herd immunity over estimates, because the first 1/3 might represent 75% of the contacts so once they’ve caught it you pretty much have your herd immunity. So I think you’d get more accurate results with a compound model representing the different groups. I also appreciate there is a feedback loop in all of this so as the perceived threat drops the other 2/3 of people increase their contacts.
In Leeds, the rate for secondary school staff was more than four times that of the general population or 333 per cent higher.
The data shows that the prevalence rate was, on average, 1089.5 for primary staff and 1750.5 for secondary staff, compared to 404.3 for the LA as a whole. This average was taken for a period spanning from the week ending 19 October to the week ending 20 November.
And in Birmingham, the rate among school staff was more than three times higher than the local average. The data shows that, across the same time period, the prevalence rate was, on average, 1146.1 for primary staff and 1027.2 for secondary staff, compared to 312.2 for the LA as a whole. This excludes the half-term week.
In Greenwich, London, the prevalence rate was also significantly higher for school staff – at, on average, 264 for staff across primary and secondary schools, compared to 98 for the LA as a whole. However this average was taken for a longer period – spanning from early September to the end of November.
That's the theory and people do build more complex models but the results end up being pretty similar. I suspect there's a bit of a network thing going on where we are all just a couple of connections from lots of people and so individual-level variability doesn't have quite the effect you might hope. A superspreader will give it to lots of people who think they haven't really met anyone recently...just this one person...it's really hard to cut contqcts down below a few per day for most working-age families etc.
But I'm not an epidemiologist, just a modeller who has done better than a lot of the experts throughout this outbreak.
Incidentally, Manaus in Brazil is having a second wave, after more than 50% of them caught it in the spring.
Hooooly shiiit, if thecaptains right about those numbers surely we're getting on for herd immunity levels by April/May?
The vaccines are too little too late going off those numbers!
If those numbers are right then as a base case we'd expect a similar number of deaths in the next 2-3 months (allowing for lag) as we have so far as well.
Of course that won't be right, because we have better treatments, the most susceptible have (sadly) already been exposed and died - the care home debacle, etc., the impact of the higher restrictions and school closures, and rowing against this tide is the vaccine too. How much headway that'll make against the strength of the tide, remains to be seen with how well they manage to implement the roll out.
Even then - there's a lot more lives going to be lost yet.
I'm more worried now than when this broke, TBH.
That’s the theory and people do build more complex models but the results end up being pretty similar. I suspect there’s a bit of a network thing going on where we are all just a couple of connections from lots of people and so individual-level variability doesn’t have quite the effect you might hope. A superspreader will give it to lots of people who think they haven’t really met anyone recently…just this one person…it’s really hard to cut contqcts down below a few per day for most working-age families etc.
But I’m not an epidemiologist, just a modeller who has done better than a lot of the experts throughout this outbreak.
Incidentally, Manaus in Brazil is having a second wave, after more than 50% of them caught it in the spring.
My gut feel is your result is pretty much in the ballpark, I think you mentioned you didn’t account the for the extra virulence of the new strain as it becomes more dominant so that will swing it the other way. That’s worrying about manus, I’d hope once you have 50%+ infection things would be calming down. Is this a result of reinfection of does it just pour water on the lower level of infection idea I proposed for immunity?
I’m more worried now than when this broke, TBH
I'm the same. Despite numerous posts about the vaccine etc. I've become really washed up in the media stuff this last 24 hours which I have tried so hard to avoid. This new lockdown just seems like the next one, and then there will be another. And it comes down to how long I can try and stay positive for.
The vaccines are too little too late going off those numbers!
Well, yeah, if you're under 50. But the people who die are people with significant co-morbidities and the elderly. Not actually that many of them and once vaccinated problem more or less solved.
Thanks I'm glad to see the message is getting through. Yes we are heading rapidly towards herd immunity through infection unless the lockdown is *extremely* successful. We won't outrun it with vaccination, it will save a few of the deaths (and is worth doing!) but won't stop the spread quickly enough to matter.
I'm only just over 50 and unusually fit so am not scared of dying from it but still would rather avoid the complications of long covid.
Even then – there’s a lot more lives going to be lost yet.
I’m more worried now than when this broke, TBH.
I think it feels worse because a month ago the vaccine was coming, the new strain wasn't widely known about and even though we expected a surge and a lockdown post Christmas, the vaccine was offering real hope.
It does feel that the virus has outsmarted everyone - even allowing for a government that is outsmarted by very simple things - and those hopes have been dashed in the short term.
Try and focus on your own behaviour and risk - you can't control anything else. I got through the first one, I'm going to get through this next one.
TiRed has always said late 2021 for things to settle and IF the vaccine can be delivered to plan, that's still my long term expectation. But anxiety levels are up to 11 again in my head again.
is this dithering and prevarication deliberate, knowing this would happen anyway and just trying to keep the right side of open revolt.
Are the government in private doing a brilliant job, but if they tell us how brilliant it is then it loses its effect......
Has anyone seen Saint Dom and his team of oddball geniuses recently?