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As much as I hate boris, he's not to blame for the ignorant selfish pricks who decide to travel tonight to get home for Christmas regardless of further spread.
I hope they have at least some sense of guilt if their elderly relatives get it. Tbh, and I may sound harsh here, but if said elderly relative is happy to attend a Christmas dinner with someone who they kniw has just travelled up from London against all guidance, I have very little sympathy.
What I do have sympathy for is the poor folks who get it in the subsequent wave which will follow.
That Twitter post is so depressing..
Ps..that Harriet lady is thick as pig shit..
'I've been isolating for weeks so I could see my mum at Christmas, but I'm now thinking getting on a packed train may not have been a good idea'
No shit Sherlock..
My folks (81 and 82) had the 1st shot @ Staffs County Showground on Wednesday.
Mucho impressed with the operation - said don't be too hung up on the time-slots, people were being shepherded through with enough slack to make it work well.
Bit of a heads-up on the notification front - my folks were notified by their GP surgery via text message, then invited to ring the surgery to book a slot on a first come first served basis. Now you might wonder whether text is the best means of contacting the over-80's - my Dad is Techno-Dad and is more tech savvy than i am - and this is here in Staffs, but those that haven't heard anything might want to check if that's what's happening where your folks are.
This may change the relationship between cases and admissions, but probably not admissions and deaths. Hence one will look at the whole chain. I suspect it’s just ACE2 binding at the RBD since this is the epitope region most open to selection pressure and has been noted many many times. TMPRSS2 changes could be pathogenicity drivers.
Could we have the layman's translation please?
Sure. There is a well-defined relationship between daily cases, future hospitalisations and subsequent deaths. About 1/50 cases go to hospitals and about 1/5 of those will die. One might think that if a new strain has a different disease characteristic, the relationships might change. So perhaps fewer people go to hospital and even fewer subsequently die. Or not.
The most likely differences in strains is the stickiness to cells (to a cell marker called ACE2). The pathogenic nasties is the subsequent incorporation of the virus and inflammatory response using another cell protein (that’s the second of those acronyms)
Will have a look at north and south differences as deaths feed in from end of lockdown. The rise in the south east prior to lockdown was noticeable and unexplained. Replacement of a strain is one explanation.
Seeing as you are here - given that the mRNA vaccines use the protein spike as the key element to their effectiveness, and given that you seem to be suggesting this is the part of the virus most susceptible to variation, are you worried that the mRNA 'way' is not the way forward?
I haven't actually seen the Mandalorian, yet still tried at least a bit to chime in with whether This Is The Way...
Tired, are you claiming a death rate of 0.4% of *daily cases* there? That’s a long way off. It’s currently running at ~2% even ignoring the effect of lag in a rising system.
my folks were notified by their GP surgery via text message,
Actually, that's a very valid issue, better check my dad has turned his phone on. They've had problems in the past as the GP surgery operates a text only system, and when my technophobe mum has complained she was more or less told to get with the programme.
My god has this backfired a bit. Have a look at the news - a mass exodus from London resulting in no train tickets out of town at all available from 7pm last night, and trains packed shoulder to to shoulder standing room only. God knows what the trains and tubes were like last night.
My emotions are all over the place - the shear humanity and thought of folk in the Gnusmas thread, vs the selfish of people exiting town last night vs the luck I have that I can at least spend Christmas Day with my wife and two kids.
Could the government have locked down out of city public transport? I know a lot of people could have taken cars but at least then there are I their own tin box.
I do have some sympathy with those travelling out of London last night. We often forget that for many younger people, London isn’t “home”, it may be where they live and work but home will be elsewhere. Hundreds of thousands travel out of the city each year for Xmas.
But, I do think it’s vastly irresponsible. And for once I struggle to blame the government for this. Yes, they procrastinated on making a decision, but once made they’ve been very clear on what you should and shouldn’t do. That thousands are ignoring it is on those people.
Also, surely thr train companies should be limiting the amount of people in the trains?
Listening to the news and it says that the new variant could add 0.4 onto the R rate. Has the R rate ever been below 0.6 since March ?
If the London trains were heaving last night as some reports suggest to generously spread the "new strain" around the UK, can't they be heavily fined like other establishments like pubs and gyms that defied rules?
I'd also love the government to be able to fine the individuals involved in the exodus, using the contactless payment details taken for the train ticket sales... But that is wishful thinking.
that defied rules
How did they do that then? I suspect they didn’t have the mechanism quick enough to limit online ticket sales, nor the personell to hold the baying mob from the carriage doors. That’d need a police effort, organised within about a 3hr window of the announcement.
Perhaps the only thing the could have done is refused to run the trains. Perhaps the fact they did run them is morally irresponsible to you and me but not against the law.
It’s too late now anyway, I imagine we can expect to see this new strain popping up outside the SE within the next few weeks.
It was inevitable. Johnson told people they could plan to go back to their parents for Xmas, despite the advice he received that they shouldn’t, and then pulled the plug far too late. For what it’s worth, my family in London did the thing that most in that situation have, and sadly cancelled all plans to travel for Xmas… but the very small proportion of people that shifted to travelling early is still likely to be a lot of people in absolute terms.
we can expect to see this new strain popping up outside the SE
It already has.
[ Cummings fled London to go to parents when he thought they he and his wife were carrying the virus, and it wasn’t Christmas - people travelling last night probably assumed/hoped they weren’t carriers and already had plans to go home - they are still nowhere near making the same selfish move that he did, and he got to tell us from the Downing Street garden on all TV channels that he was just doing the right thing for his family. ]
I wonder what Dominic Cummings did?
Edit- Kelvin beat me too it
Kelvin beat me to it. How can this govt prosecute thousands of folk for essentially doing the same thing that Cummings did?
Can’t believe the “fair play to him” type comments. Boris has done a terrible job since the start, particularly terrible recently, now he’s playing catch up on the poor choices made so far.
It's the season of good will, being nice is nice and we get better results by encouraging good behaviour. Literally Dog Training 101.
The 'Fair Play' was due as this was not last minute (Eid had hours notice of cancellation).
The rest of the venality and incompetence he can not avoid the responsibility but if we nudge regularly we'll get what we want while letting him think he's played a blinder.
*slow handclap for the Londoners*
Nothing like a new strain, even more contagious, being crammed on a carriage with no opening windows, with a few hundred other people for a couple of hours, while heading to a different part of the country...
https://twitter.com/chrisshipitv/status/1340410423858900992
that defied rules?
I'm not sure last night's announcement had been made law - get a bit confused between announcements, advice and actual (theoretical) enforceable laws.
Kelvin beat me to it. How can this govt prosecute thousands of folk for essentially doing the same thing that Cummings did
Did two wrongs ever make a right?
*slow handclap for the Londoners*
You mean “some people deciding to do some travelling from London”. Dont inaccurately generalise like that.
That video of St Pancras station is manic. Prior to Covid I used to travel there a lot. That looks significantly busier than it usually is at rush hour!
How did they do that then? I suspect they didn’t have the mechanism quick enough to limit online ticket sales
Weren't trains running on reduced capacity for social distancing?
Unfortunately FU I'm off seems to have over ruled any don't travel out of tier three restrictions. Given the exodus removing tier one would seem to be a sensible measure. Perhaps even moving most areas to tier three.
Here was me thinking the transmission risk out of the SE was going to be from the large numbers of trucks drivers held up at the ports and in the lorry parks.
A much better way to deal with it might have been to bleed in the restrictions over 48 hours and offer free changes to other trains / routes over that time. But that would require thinking ahead and coordination.
Delaying the planned engineering works out of Kings Cross for an extra day may also have helped.
There's talk of other countries banning all UK visitors (I think the Netherlands already has) but suspect that it's a case of bolting the door after the horse has left. If this variant spreads more aggressively then I can't see why it won't quickly become the dominant version.
At this point I'd test every international traveller before they fly and again on arrival, and possibly a third time in a few days.
Given the exodus removing tier one would seem to be a sensible measure. Perhaps even moving most areas to tier three.
I've already asked why everywhere in England isn't now Tier 4. This is going to be too little, too late, AGAIN!
Unfortunately FU I’m off seems to have over ruled any don’t travel out of tier three restrictions.
In fairness to Londoners, you don't know how many people wanted to leave, had Christmas plans, and then saw that scrum and stayed home. Because they aren't in the picture.
In this, you only see the arseholes because everyone else is at home. There are dickheads out and about where we live but the FB community page is full of people supporting the regs and offering to organise help etc.
Anyway. Question for the stats-enabled: here in Cardiff, what proportion of people in Asda at any one time are likely to have COVID? We have 625 ish new cases per day, but assuming those positive tests are not shopping in Asda how many asymptomatic carriers would there be?
are you worried that the mRNA ‘way’ is not the way forward?
No I’m not worried yet. Polyclonal antibody responses from the vaccine will afford some protection
@thecaptain apologies I mixed up the ONS modelled cases with those reported as cases daily. The 2% is of all infections identified by ONS not the reported cases I can believe that only a fifth of all infections are identified by testing. It was late 😉
Question for the stats-enabled: here in Cardiff, what proportion of people in Asda at any one time are likely to have COVID?
About 1 in 80 folk have COVID and a third of those are asymptomatic. assume 1500 people in a normal sized Asda 1 out of 240 have it and don't know it, so about 6/7 people...Lets hope the folk who know that they have it, aren't going to Asda, eh?
I’ve already asked why everywhere in England isn’t now Tier 4. This is going to be too little, too late, AGAIN!
The new super mutant ninja covid strain must be identified by sequencing , which takes longer that an rtpcr test, though we do have huge sequencing capacity here
There will still be a lag between finding, testing for & reporting this strain
I bet this strain has already spread to the whole of England, people have been leaving London all week (including MPs) . It will be present in Wales & Scotland too and if it really is spreading quicker then good luck containing it.
Its also believed to spread more in kids than original strain, so at least schools are all closed now, but will they be reopening in Jan.
I think I just read Hancock said tier 4 might have to stay in place until vaccine roll out 😭
(couldn't get an image link to work)
Yes, it is already present in Scotland. We are all in Tier 4 (other than the islands).
About 1 in 80 folk have COVID and a third of those are asymptomatic. assume 1500 people in a normal sized Asda 1 out of 240 have it and don’t know it, so about 6/7 people…Lets hope the folk who know that they have it, aren’t going to Asda, eh?
Your average Asda has a huge high roof & plenty of air circulation, with masks & handwashing should be as safe as it gets
The ‘Fair Play’ was due as this was not last minute (Eid had hours notice of cancellation).
Eid did not get cancelled. Whether through design or incompetence the restrictions were announced before Eid but only passed into law afterwards. They've been slightly quicker with these changes, they came into force at 7am this morning rather than midnight as announced.
should be as safe as it gets
@kimbers, yes absolutely! sorry, wasn't trying to imply it was dangerous or anything, If you've a mask on, and don't touch everything, it's a safe as anywhere right now.
They've finally published the new SI. For those complaining about people leaving tier 4 areas there is nothing to stop it in the legislation.
About 1 in 80 folk have COVID and a third of those are asymptomatic. assume 1500 people in a normal sized Asda 1 out of 240 have it and don’t know it, so about 6/7 people…Lets hope the folk who know that they have it, aren’t going to Asda, eh?
What about people who are asymptomatic but isolating because they've been told to by our world beating track and trace system.
For those complaining about people leaving tier 4 areas
They were leaving tier 3. Tier 4 came into effect this morning. The stay at home, with exemptions, is pretty clear. We’re not going anywhere other than for a short walk.
What about people who are asymptomatic but isolating because they’ve been told to by our world beating track and trace system.
Its the 20% of them t&t is missing that's the problem
I bet this strain has already spread to the whole of England,
It has, a smaller but significant proportion of tests a week ago in other regions were already positive for the new variant, according to Vallance. Given how quickly it has moved from 20% of known cases to 60% of cases, it's fair to say that it will probably be present, and starting to out-compete the old version right now in most areas. The mass exodus will just make sure of that. I'm sure that it hasn't stopped at the English border either.
They were leaving tier 3. Tier 4 came into effect this morning.
A lot of people been leaving London all week, my train home ends in crewe, I only went in Monday & Thursday, but both days on the way home trains were busier than they have been for a while & lots of people with big holdalls etc
Main difference in the announcements yesterday. BJ was still waffle and hope for common sense. Sturgeon was talking about legislation.
This new strain has been tracked back to 20th Sept in Kent.
Kelvin beat me to it. How can this govt prosecute thousands of folk for essentially doing the same thing that Cummings did
Did two wrongs ever make a right?
No, but after all ministers lined up to defend the actions of Cummings when he fled London thinking he had the virus, against the rules, the government can’t be surprised when some of the population who think they don’t have the virus leave London when it isn’t against the rules. They made this mess. Actions have consequences in government.
Your average Asda has a huge high roof & plenty of air circulation, with masks & handwashing should be as safe as it gets
You would have to be unlucky, or stand for an extended period next to the wrong person near the checkout. It's as safe as it can be, but Christmas shopping at supermarkets can be a poorly controlled scrum at the best of times. Going in the middle of the night if it's a 24 hour store would be my strategy.
This new strain has been tracked back to 20th Sept in Kent.
My instinct when I saw the hotspot in Kent pop up was the prison population on the Isle of Sheppey.