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I think this little bit of panic is over the new strain of Covid thats causing the London spread. Any 2 week of lockdown though is better than none for the disease.
Retail can still open if they have a door fronting the outdoors e.g. not enclosed in a shopping mall.
<span style="font-size: 0.8rem;">retail premises may open, other than shops situated inside closed premises that cannot be accessed directly from the street...</span>
Something we’ve all probably been guilty of on here, and not just on the Covid thread.
Quite, the vitriol again me yesterday in the Brexit thread when I suggested a popular poster was wrong to suggest stockpiling was amazing. It got to the point where I felt I had to leave and learn deeply about British and European politics / BJ's life history just to defend myself, obviously I just didn't bother.
The only person I can recall who’s been polite and non-judgemental about a post I made was TiRed, for that I was grateful.
Blush. Thank you. In C_G's position, I might be looking for a larger safety database on vaccination too. For example, subjects with KNOWN hypersensitivity were deliberately excluded from the mRNA vaccine trials because the PEG coating of the nanoparticles used may induce an undesirable hypersensitivity response. Those people will have other options available in good time, perhaps for them waiting is a better decision - benefit-risk. I don't believe in forced vaccination of anyone. But other countries may restrict your travel options if you are not vaccinated.
Masks have been an interesting one. The effect was modest, possibly due to increased contacts, in a large and controlled trial. I think it's reasonable to think there will be an effect, notably in crowded public transport, possibly secondary schools and shopping centres, but expecting them to instantly reduce transmission to nil is a fallacy.
I am always happy to debate the non-mainstream views. And how the government has performed. I've repeatedly said there are no good choices, and that a reasonable expectation for return to normality is about 18 months. Over that period we will see an accumulation of approximately 150k more deaths than we might have normally seen. Without contact restrictions, you can at least double that number. Indeed an early return to normal would see an impressive rise, even with vaccine rollout.
Often debate has focussed on extremes. The truth is 1) always more complex and 2) a compromise of multiple factors. Yes there have been times when the epidemic has grown exponentially, Yes the tests may provide false positives, but people are admitted to hospitals on SYMPTOMS before testing, no there is not mass immunity but there will be some areas with higher past exposure than others. Does that matter? Seemingly not looking at the rapid filling of hospitals at the moment.
And I comment on lockdownskeptics.org from time to time, usually with plenty of down-votes, but I don't hold the record 😉
[tl:dr] you can't employ the scientific method without being skeptical. But there are some pretty broad and robust conclusions nine months into the epidemic.
Any knowledge on the new strain TiRed?
When will people aged 49 and under with no under lying health issues get vaccinated?
I work in a borough population 240000
Over 80s- 11000
Vaccines deliveries due tomorrow- 975
Don’t hold your breath.
As ever the government is making promises it will struggle to deliver. (Or more accurately we will struggle to deliver on its behalf)
To quote someone on Twitter:
“Wow London get 1 day notice to lockdown hospitality because the retail shops have been full. ”
Obviously that person didn’t have to happen past borough market at the weekend where hospitality was absolutely caning it.
What are the collective's thoughts about hospitality being kept closed and retail staying open?
To me, it seems that retail is largely uncontrolled, busy and inside, it can also largely be done online, certainly most none-essential stuff can be.
Hospitality is certainly no worse for transmission than retail and arguably much safer.
So why is the government insistent on closing on and keeping the other open?
Any knowledge on the new strain TiRed?
Evolutionary Biology is ALWAYS looking for an edge - survival of the fittest (virus). New strains may emerge that have a selection advantage and spread faster. Alternatively changes in the spike protein may make detection by PCR more challenging - primers might miss the mutation.
What isn't missed is symptoms of hypoxia leading to hospital admissions. The current epidemic in SE, London and the East of England has shown a stubbornness to turnover as it has in other areas. Is that due to a new strain? Children spreading the virus on the tube in London, shopping in Bluewater and Lakeside? Probably too early to tell.
But Tier 2 has not been enough in London to turnover the growth of hospital admissions, so the intervention has merit.
plandemic
That's pretty clever. Someone accuses everyone posting here as unquestioning and in constant agreement (when the truth is that there's a multitude of always changing views and opinions on the response in this country and elsewhere)... and so as to prove them right, you use a word that we can all agree is dumb as hell and will universally condemn. I mean, that was your intention, right...? You couldn't honestly be here to tell us that you think this epidemic was intentional, and planned... could you? To make money out of selling a vaccine? To stop us grouping together in pubs and planning a coup? For what reason?!?
Eldest is in his A level year – any more disruption this year, or a lockdown, and I don’t see how exams in England can go ahead.
There are plenty of A level students in parts of Britain who will have had half their on site teaching for their courses taken from them... even if they're lucky enough to be onsite after Christmas and all the way up to next Summers' exams... those exams should already have been planned to be replaced or supplemented by other assessment measures. Waiting 'till the last minute to make that change, which let's face it is what the Westminster government have been doing all the way though this public health emergency, is an obvious crisis making failure that most people can see coming months in advance.
The current epidemic in SE, London and the East of England has shown a suborness to turnover as it has in other areas.
sorry, (genuinely) is that a typo or a word I need to google - I don't understand and can't imagine what the right word would be?
Hospitality is certainly no worse for transmission than retail and arguably much safer.
I want to agree with you... because I'm very scared of how much of our pub culture will be lost over this period... and I bloody love pubs... and you are right that shops can shift to distance selling in a way pubs can't... but...
...it's about time spent in the proximity of others... no one in their right mind would spend as long in a shop as they would in a pub. Yes, there are exceptions to that... but a night down the pub is higher risk than popping into a shop for 10 mins.
I don’t understand and can’t imagine what the right word would be?
Stubbornness?
apologies for typo (corrected), yes stubbornness. I was hopeful for Lockdown with schooling, but London only flattened, it didn't shrink the epidemic.
stubbornness to turnover?
Still don't get it?
It's very sad that CG and others feel there's no room for debate here, that's wrong. Science tells us what is happening bit doesn't determine how we respond. We choose to be guided by science. Guided. We must consider the other factors though, and insults to anyone offering a view are abhorrent.
ah! got it now, I was totally blinded with turnover as in financial income! Couldn't see why the virus was being linked to financial measures other than the more shopping people are out doing the more it's likely to spread!
So the rate of infection is not changing wrt lockdown measures anywhere near as fast as we would expect.
As you were.......
Over 80s- 11000
Vaccines deliveries due tomorrow- 975
12 days to vaccinate all over 80s sounds good to me (assuming the delivery tomorrow is not a one off)
Anyone who ventures a different opinion will get shut down on here.
I wouldn't dream of shouting down someone's different opinion on here, there's far too many folk that are way cleverer and have more subject knowledge than I do. (Not a high bar, admittedly).
However, plandemic conspiracy theorists can, in their own words, 'do one'.
those exams should already have been planned to be replaced
Yep.
Good news my mum doesnt have covid, bad news she's still very ill, other bad news, boy in my sons class (his best friend) tested today, my plan to take mum home so I could go back to work has stalled.
12 days to vaccinate all over 80s sounds good to me (assuming the delivery tomorrow is not a one off)
It’s a one off as far as I’m aware. And it will take 3 days to vaccinate 975. It has taken three days to book all the appointments. There isn’t enough spare capacity to do more. Again, don’t believe the government spin. It’s not happening 8-8 7 days a week, it’s happening 10-6 three days a week... these are the ones that can travel to the vaccine site. Not the housebound or in care homes... they will take a lot longer
At least that’s the picture where I work. I delivery of vaccine per site. Then nothing. I might be wrong but there are no more appointments left for me to book people into. I know cos I used the last one today. Booked a lady in, went to arrange for her husband, no appointments left.
It will take weeks to vaccinate the over 80s.
Evolutionary Biology is ALWAYS looking for an edge – survival of the fittest (virus)
Can't see the unrivalled behavioural purity of Essex and Kent providing much of a selection pressure.
More likely to be people not giving a stuff about the kind of measures that have at least slowed it down a bit elsewhere.
Masks have been an interesting one. The effect was modest, possibly due to increased contacts, in a large and controlled trial. I think it’s reasonable to think there will be an effect, notably in crowded public transport, possibly secondary schools and shopping centres, but expecting them to instantly reduce transmission to nil is a fallacy.
May I suggest that masks are like bike helmets - they offer some modest protection while tempting people to take much higher risk behaviour? 🙂
I wouldn’t dream of shouting down someone’s different opinion on here, there’s far too many folk that are way cleverer and have more subject knowledge than I do. (Not a high bar, admittedly).
Complains about being compared to a brexiteer then mentions main stream media and cancelling the BBC in the same post.....LOL.....I need to write a book titled "How Everything Became Satire and Stupidity Became Everything"....it'll be much more interesting than Rosa Brooks book.
And I comment on lockdownskeptics.org from time to time
Wanders off to have a look....
Christ there's a section of the forum for dating a lockdown skeptic....no one for me though, middle aged men arent my thing....shudders and feels the need to sanitise my eyes!!!
May I suggest that masks are like bike helmets – they offer some modest protection while tempting people to take much higher risk behaviour? 🙂
Aye, that's a very valid analogy.
Aye, that’s a very valid analogy.
You are joking. I'd be a mincing blue-route mountain biker, helmet or not! My skills are in numbers 😉
But we introduced masks during a period of unlocking, people were hoping for a sharp decline that did not materialise. I'm still happy to wear one despite the terrible oppression of my liberty, so I can buy a paper in the shop of my elderly friend. Any a helmet (except on the trike, occasionally).
Thing is, wearing a bike helmet protects me somewhat from the other idiots - wearing a mask mostly protects the other idiots from me, iirc.
Aye, that’s a very valid analogy.
Agreed. Which is why, in recent months the government has always stressed “space” when talking about “face”. Masks with physical distancing is what is required, rather than wearing masks instead of social distancing. They got the messaging wrong when they, after the first “lockdown” sold masks as an alternative to social distancing.
But, as others have said… wearing a mask is a community measure… not so much a self protection measure… so I’d go for the sticking to speed limits analogy…
They are a small imposition that, combined with keeping a safe distance, protects others more than myself.
Lol!
I got to the stage a while ago of really not feeling 'right' out and about without one on! It also registers every time I watch something on TV and there's loads of folk indoors together!
Hospitality is certainly no worse for transmission than retail and arguably much safer.
I've not seen any stats for that either way. It's a mystery.
you use a word that we can all agree is dumb as hell
While I don't disagree with you, using language like that doesn't exactly encourage debate
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-55267010
does this mean
1) cases are actually tiny at universities
2) they are tiny as the virus has already swept through universities months ago
3) this test is not fit for purpose
4) other?
I read Cambridge also tested thousands of students and got hardly anything?
...without the above results would we all be blaming/ranting about how the students coming home for Christmas are 'to blame'
using language like that doesn’t exactly encourage debate
Agreed. Using the word “plandemic” doesn’t encourage debate. Although I did ask questions about it… to give it a go… I fully admit I didn’t expect answers.
Contact restrictions work to stem transmission. Students have unfortunately had few contacts outside of their hall/house. Hence any hall epidemic may have passed. There is little or no spread from uni to community.
@sefton
2.
My son at mmu in Manchester. Locked in to halls for 2 weeks in early September. Everyone of them tested at that time. 50% positive he reckons. (His flat were all negative).
Since then hardly any new infections. I’ve been putting his postcode in the gov.uk website recently. Rates too low to measure.
1) cases are actually tiny at universities
Manchester students have made the most of it and stuck to their small groups, and not mixed with others. Sad, but they’ve made the most of it. I don’t know anything about Portsmouth or elsewhere.
It is interesting sefton, but is in the same ballpark figure as the Liverpool testing. As I said then, if you have say 7% of folk positive for testing on a daily basis, and they are generally people who have symptoms (and folks going for hospital procedures etc) then it's a fair assumption that testing non symptomatic folks would result in much lower numbers?.
However, plandemic conspiracy theorists can, in their own words, ‘do one’.
This would have an upvote from me if they were available here.
Since then hardly any new infections. I’ve been putting his postcode in the gov.uk website recently. Rates too low to measure.
Mental health though will be very shakey amongst many of those young people and the facilities for that branch of medicine are very restricted.
was the lateral flow test results from the mass liverpool testing used as evidence to move liverpool (the worst in the country)back into tier 2 (what felt like overnight)?
Manchester students have made the most of it
True. Luckily he’s doing art and has been allowed decent access to the studio. Did a bit of protesting down Oxford road last week. I saw him in video footage on Manchester evening news website. He’s also spent a lot less than he would have otherwise. He’s had a better experience this year than his sister did in her first year in Newcastle three years ago.
It helps that he was really ready to leave home.
Mental health though will be very shakey amongst many
Indeed- a friend’s son committed suicide after 1 week away. Cannot measure the hurt they are feeling.
May I suggest that masks are like bike helmets
Is my mask less effective if I'm also wearing a small cotton cap?
1) cases are actually tiny at universities
2) they are tiny as the virus has already swept through universities months ago
3) this test is not fit for purpose
4) other?
1) well looks low, now
2) possibly
3) lateral flow test used isnt as accurate as pcr, but youd hope its not that bad
4) a combo of all of the above+ restrictions on halls, online lessons, masks & massively reduced socialising all working to keep transmission low
allowed decent access to the studio
Very lucky. Students I know have only left accommodation to buy alcohol (and some food on the side). No on-site learning. No mixing with other students outside their bubbles. No seeing any staff face to face. No mixing with public (other than when buying alcohol). Very little moaning though… just getting on with it.
Cannot measure the hurt they are feeling.
That is heart wrenching. So hard.
Plandemic ..🤦
However, my question was, who is saying kids will be taken into care if they don’t go to school because of Covid worries? Who is actually threatening this from a position of authority, rather than your own understandable fears based on your own terrible experience 20 years ago?
When you live with this on a daily basis you don't need explicit threats, it's a constant threat that doesn't go away unless someone says "we are not going to target any families that keep their kids away from school".
Many of these kids that are living with grandparents or older carers will already be in this position and on a "at risk" list.
My OH got asked call one of the parents at her school continually (whilst hiding her number) because the kid is classed "at risk". My understanding is the reason for the kid being classed at risk is in prison so I can't see why the kid is "at risk" unless there has been a prison break.
She was quite distressed being told to keep phoning as the mother doesn't speak English and would have been terrified to pick up the phone.
As lunge said much earlier, although I don't know anyone that was sent home for refusing to remove a mask in class (despite the explicit threat they would) it doesn't get that far because the kids are pressured and teased not to mention they will then be picked on and marked down as awkward for the rest of their time in that school. Granted we can change school perhaps but what are we as parents going to do? Tell our children to ignore the teacher or just accept there is nothing we can do?
I mean they did this for MOT's... why can't they say any parents or carers that are concerned will not be penalised?
thoughts about hospitality being kept closed and retail staying open?
To me, it seems that retail is largely uncontrolled, busy and inside, it can also largely be done online, certainly most none-essential stuff can be.
Hospitality is certainly no worse for transmission than retail and arguably much safer.
So why is the government insistent on closing on and keeping the other open?
I dunno.. depends how different stuff is done... sat outside a pub and served outside seems low risk but then your "substantive meal" would be cold.
Sat inside ... different matter?
1) cases are actually tiny at universities
2) they are tiny as the virus has already swept through universities months ago
3) this test is not fit for purpose
1 and 2 as 3 is mutually exclusive if the "purpose" is to get negative tests for bodging the figures.