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easier to shield whilst the vaccine is rolled out to everyone else.
10s of thousands of dead pensioners would disagree that they are easier to shield.
Because we need to make sure they're around to enjoy the Brexit they voted for?
why are the older folk getting it first?
Bluntly, to stop them from dying. You’ve correctly identified the two ways of doing this, inoculate the vulnerable ones, or inoculate the spreaders, in the end the result is about the same; the spreaders will infect the vulnerable , and they’re going to die, or inoculate the oldies so that when the spreaders give it to them, they’re immune.
I think the french are vaccinating the spreaders rather than oldies, so it’ll be an interesting comparison
Protect the most vulnerable, the vaccine is a treatment to lessen the severity of infection isn't it? If you vaccinate all the kids and students first, you'll have lost a fair few vulnerable people by the time you get to them.
Because we need to make sure they’re around to enjoy the Brexit they voted for?
😂🤣
Serious answer..there is no evidence I am aware of it stops transmission.. it probably will, but vacinating the spreaders may not stop prevent transmission
What I would say however is that I think younger folks who are classed as highly vunerable should be getting it before a 90 year old who, as harsh as it sounds, probably has a fairly limited life expectancy anyhow..
I suspect this has been answer previously, but re. the vaccine, why are the older folk getting it first?
Burden of healthcare - which is the same reason for the influenza vaccine. The trials have all demonstrated an impressive reduction in serious disease. they were not designed to look at transmission. Hence vaccination, at the least, will keep people out of hospital.
Here's an analysis of the three vaccines - It's not hard to spot the mRNA vaccines. Vaccine efficacy is 1 - relative risk, so 1 - number on vaccine with symptoms/number on placebo with symptoms. A bit of a painful statistic, since it has a range of minus infinity (placebo works, vaccine doesn't) to 1 (vaccine works perfectly). The bounds needed for registration are a mode bigger than 0.5 and a lower 95% credibility interval above 0.3. I show both of these on the plots.
There is strong evidence from the plots (0% overlap) that the mRNA vaccines work better than the hi/hi Oxford/AZ vaccine. There is a 10% chance that the 90% from the low/Hi dose could be by chance! Oxford/AZ are running another trial to look more like the mRNA vaccines and tighten up the wide 90% distribution.
Because we need to make sure they’re around to enjoy the Brexit they voted for?
This thread really needed that comment, it had gone a bit weird again for a couple of hours.🤣🤣
But it's a fair point, well made.
why are the older folk getting it first?
Bluntly, to stop them from dying. You’ve correctly identified the two ways of doing this, inoculate the vulnerable ones, or inoculate the spreaders, in the end the result is about the same; the spreaders will infect the vulnerable , and they’re going to die, or inoculate the oldies so that when the spreaders give it to them, they’re immune.
I think the french are vaccinating the spreaders rather than oldies, so it’ll be an interesting comparison
Exactly this, they're aiming to get everyone over 50 who'll have it vaccinated in a few months, this could reduce hospital admissions and deaths by 99%, but even vaccinating the over 70s first will massively reduce those numbers which will 'fix' one of the biggest fears/problems, the NHS being overwhelmed.
From a political point of view, all being well from a combination of vaccine and natural seasonal differences we may well be seeing a huge reduction in cases in Spring which they'll probably use to reduce restrictions.
Well, something’s going on in Wales..
I might argue that some sections of society in Wales are pre-disposed to be utterly useless at containing a virus due to their complete lack of giving a shit, but mostly it's just our firebreak came earlier than the English one and ended sooner.
I don't think we've confirmed our Xmas rules yet, I think most people assume we'll follow the English ones, but it's going to be hard I think.
We've in all but name closed pubs here now, they can open, but only until 6pm and they cannot serve alcohol, unsurprisingly most have decided to close and furlough staff. They've been pretty clear that it's socialising and especially socialising when alcohol is involved that's driving transmission here. Bars aren't happy of course and who can blame them, they've missed the whole office party season, if they're not allowed to serve over xmas it'll be a disaster.
With my marketing head on, if I were in charge of a Pub / Bar etc I'd be pinning my hopes on holding a whole summer of events, if last summer taught us much it's that you can get away with a lot in Summer virus-wise and with a fast vaccine roll out there's a chance they'll be able to do so restriction-free, I just hope they can hold on long enough.
why are the older folk getting it first?
More or Less on the World Service covered this earlier this morning. As well as reducing hospital admissions it also works in terms of years of life saved as the mortality is so dependant on age.
WHO spokesperson on Radio 4 yesterday also pointed out that given the limited amount of vaccine available it would have little effect on transmission with the current high rates of transmission.
More or Less on the World Service covered this earlier this morning. As well as reducing hospital admissions it also works in terms of years of life saved as the mortality is so dependant on age.
Also David Spiegelhalter yesterday on PM on R4. Basically lifetime goes up linearly with age (!!) whereas likelihood to die of Covid goes up exponentially, so better to give it to old people first.
He’s hardly unbiased though 😉
So, how many old folk will be need vaccinating before restrictions lift?
Given the impact on younger folk is minimal, we'll presumably need to stop measuring cases and move to another measure?
Given the impact on younger folk is minimal, we’ll presumably need to stop measuring cases and move to another measure?
Cases has always been a red herring.
You need to look at admissions and NHS capacity
Cases has always been a red herring.
Actually, that was certainly true during the summer and into September. Since then the situation has died down a little bit. I've just done a forward projection of deaths using cases 14-21 days previous across the UK and things look pretty good. Some areas are over-predicted (no bad thing) reflecting the higher than proportional testing, but if I used the relevant age range I think things would look good. I validated the analysis by predicting from 01-Nov with a precision of 10 deaths per day. That's usable;
The bands are a 95% confidence interval for the mean (think rolling mean), the prediction interval for individual observations is wider. The reason for such projections is because vaccination at who-knows-what levels and who-knows-where regions means that the underlying assumptions for SEIR modelling will be challenging (there won't be public records).
And some good news! Deaths are stable in Week 48 - Lockdown effects fed through for a reduction in the North West.
So, how many old folk will be need vaccinating before restrictions lift?
Given the impact on younger folk is minimal, we’ll presumably need to stop measuring cases and move to another measure?
God knows, most of them, I’d bet Spring comes first.
I think the R rate has been the true measurement of choice of the Government, it’s the press that pushes cases.
I think, given the choice the Government would like to stick to deaths and admissions as they fall they’ll want a massive ‘feel good’ boost.
It’s nice to see the first patients getting their injections today, and as usual they’re being given by some senior nurses who’ve had to find their uniform from the back of the wardrobe and try to remember how to do it. Most wouldn’t have touched a patient in years. 😉
Will tier 2 have a noticeable impact on reduction of cases/admissions in those areas?
My gut feeling says that schools closing for Xmas Will make the biggest difference.
Kryton - ignore the trolls with a chip on their shoulder. Anybody entering your house should have the manners to wear a mask in the current environment. I imagine openreach mandate it for their staff too.
I'd agree with P-Jay's thought on some parts of Wales being completely unable to social distance effectively. Large parts of the Valleys and other old mining areas are used to living on top of each other all the time, whether that's all in the same workplace or constantly socialising in each other's houses or the pub.
I'm actually planning for the christmas restrictions to be worse here than England and having to spend the time at home on my own. Hopefully I'll get to see may parents as a minimum but the way that the graphs are rising is now better than before the firebreak. I fully expect England's graphs to go the same way but they had a break of double the length and a shorter run-up to christmas so have an advantage there.
Either way the next few months are looking grim as vaccine roll-out will be nowhere near fast enough to save this winter.
Could be England that "closes" the border this time around?
A few months ago I was planning to have my mum stay for Xmas - looking to do all I could to self isolate in the preceding 10 days.
We’ve now decided it’s not worth it. She will be vaccinated early next year (72) so we will have a big get-together then.
I’d agree with P-Jay’s thought on some parts of Wales being completely unable to social distance effectively.
I'm quite sure Wales isn't unique in that respect.
I wonder if Bill Gates is enjoying controlling those old biddies they’ve vaccinated...
Have you not seen Exorcist 3? That's how these things start...
I wonder if Bill Gates is enjoying controlling those old biddies they’ve vaccinated…
If he could inject them with the ability to use any technology that came into public use in the 1990’s onwards; that would be a great help to society.
@Kryton57 - I was winding you up earlier. Apologies if I've offended you.
FWIW I hate Mr K's French Fancies, they're foul.
I found it amusing for some reason that the first man to get the vaccine was called William Shakespeare!
I wonder if Bill Gates is enjoying controlling those old biddies they’ve vaccinated…
He'll only be able to that if the 5G site local to University Hospital, Coventry is up and working, someone may have set fire to it....
Is there a vaccine thread/poll/discussion or is all on this thread?
Who else has seen the clip of Hancock trying to cry? I very nearly threw my phone at the wall. It’s like the most outrageous episode of The Thick of It
Is there a vaccine thread/poll/discussion or is all on this thread?
Do we need one?
P-Jay
Full MemberI think the R rate has been the true measurement of choice of the Government
Of course- it's quick to change, and it means that a running high rate of infection- the real problem- can be dismissed because the R is at or below 1. (or in fact, probably isn't, but they can just say it is because it takes 1-2 weeks to prove that false and then they can just say it's because they're doing more tests)
(and it's so easy to do that even the Scottish Labour party are falling in line- thinking that Lanarkshire which was the worst are in Scotland should be in the same tier as Edinburgh which had about 1/3d as many cases, because "cases are falling at the same rate")
P-Jay
God knows, most of them, I’d bet Spring comes first.
I still don't really understand this.
Are those who have just recovered from the virus not at lower risk or do we have more than enough vaccine ? Or is it just too much bother to test people? Or is the test so bad ?
mostly it’s just our firebreak came earlier than the English one and ended sooner
Plus, and WG have I think admitted as much, we were let out with too much freedom. I remember being surprised and concerned at the time.
Various authorities have started shutting schools early too; although some of it seems a bit token-ish since they are just bringing term ending forward by two days.
Various authorities have started shutting schools early too; although some of it seems a bit token-ish since they are just bringing term ending forward by two days.
Is it the Monday and tuesday they are ditching? Actually quite sensible as it’s 4 days earlier; and gives the little germ incubators 5 days to develop symptoms before the 5 day Xmas family get together
Or is it just too much bother to test people?
I think from previous discussion, the cost and time of testing to see who needed the vaccine was more expensive than just vaccinating the whole group.
@ayjaydoubleyou - no ending on 16th not 18th as originally planned. However its a valid point that its good to get them showing symptoms before christmas!
Old people being vaccinated is political, as much as anything.
In a properly organised and responsible world those most at risk and the least need financially for external interaction would take responsibility for themselves and allow the younger people (anyone not drawing a pension) to try and recover something of their former lives. In reality at least part of the most vulnerable age group seem to be cavalier in the extreme with their health so vaccinating them as a group should see the death rates fall and ease the burden on the NHS. This will allow Boris's successor to open things up again earlier as they can say the NHS is coping and deaths have fallen whilst allowing the virus to run rampant through the rest of population. For most of us if we want to avoid getting it we will need to maintain current restrictions until the summer.
As for Krytons BT man, a mask would have been appropriate, gloves, meh, we did that to death months ago. Open the windows and give the man space to work, leave the windows open for an hour when he's gone, no biggie. Certainly not worth getting upset over.
Apologies if this has been asked and answered before but since the results are now published for the AstraZeneca/Oxford trial how can they justify treating the group that got half dose and the group on the full dose as the same population and saying its 70% effective? OK they could compare the under 55 demographic of the whole and half dose trials and say they're the same but this doesn't mean the over 55s will respond as well to the half dose. However having said that 62% effectiveness without serious disease in the larger cohort is good news and I'd be happy to have any of the three front runners.........however I'm secretly hoping when my turn comes I get the Pfizer vaccine.
however I’m secretly hoping when my turn comes I get the Pfizer vaccine
Unlikely. While today has been all about praising our vaccine plan… the truth is that we’re getting very few of those… they are earmarked for elsewhere.
Anyway, generally all good news today… however… I feel the need to say…
https://twitter.com/spittingcat/status/1336366080223277056?s=21
however I’m secretly hoping when my turn comes I get the Pfizer vaccine.
Then go to a hospital or a mass vaccination site, your GP is likely to be giving out the AZ vaccine.
Im quite happy to have the AZ vaccine. 70% chance immune to CV, and pretty much guaranteed no severe illness even if you get it. Good enough for a healthy 46 y/o and give the best stuff to our older/at risk relatives & loved ones.
Then go to a hospital or a mass vaccination site, your GP is likely to be giving out the AZ vaccine.
I think by the time the masses get the chance to be vaccinated it'll have nothing to do with the storage of the vaccine, and everything to do with which one we have availability of. And that'll be the AZ version, regardless of where you get it.
Here is a question for you. If you participated in the trials (I didnt), and got a dose that is judged to be effective, you are now already 'technically' vaccinated. Will they reach out to those that applies to to let them know they already have some protection?
Old people being vaccinated is political, as much as anything.
Have you got a source for that to counter the expert views shared on here previously?