Forum menu
Tier 3 here in Manchester as feared. Utterly fed up with it now. Like, it can go **** itself.
So far we have:
Tier 2
Liverpool & London
Tier 3
Manchester, Hull, Newcastle, Birmingham, Wolverhampton and Kent.
My mum died a couple of weeks ago. We’re going to the funeral next week in a socially-distanced way, have ruled out the grandkids mixing for ‘refreshments’ afterwards. And my stepdad has decided it’s not sensible to travel down to us during the festive period despite the comfort that would bring him.
I'm sorry to hear that. I'm struggling to balance that I don't want any negative outcome and the kids then find somehow they might have been to blame in the future - possible overthinking but who knows.
You can only ever make decisions for what you think is the best with the information in front of you.
With regards to the Ox/AZ vaccine results. Any randomised clinical trial is first analysed using an "Intent to treat" analysis. This is the primary analysis. You conduct the analysis based on what subjects were randomised to - NOT what they actually received. In this case that is vaccine or placebo. The efficacy is 70%. It doesn't matter if you received a half-dose first, no dose second, the wrong treatment (placebo not active or vice versa - it happens). The ITT analysis is the truth, everything else is post-hoc.
What the misdosing calls into question is the veracity of the trial. It appears that the contract manufacturer had a suspect assay and hence the doses added to the vials was incorrect. That would be a serious finding in any audit. In any other clinical setting it would probably sink the trial results! If it failed manufacture, what else might have failed?
Clearly the 70% is sufficient for approval, but the subgroup is what we would normally call "hypothesis generating". We would then conduct a confirmatory trial at the lower dose. Also the trial is powered to detect a difference of active from placebo - say 50%. Any smaller differences are less likely to be significant and could be a chance finding.
[t:dr] A chance finding in a poorly executed trial calls into question the veracity of the data as a whole and makes regulatory approval more challenging.
Tier 3.
Which immediately makes me question why we locked down and the effectiveness of the tiers given we've gone up 2 levels.
Surely we should be down a level given the government said the tiers and lockdown were to reduce infections.
Anyone would thinking keeping schools open was a bad idea...
Another planned weeks holiday bites the dust. I'm looking back on my 3 nights in Keswick in October like some kind of round the world trip now.
South Cambs has a lower rate than the Isle of Wight.
But they're in tier 1, and we're in tier 2. What's that all about?
not just rate
maybe your areas growth is high enough
maybe your areas ITU capacity isn't looking good
etc.
Lockdown has worked well for Kent gone from Tier 1 to 3.
Lockdown has worked well for Kent gone from Tier 1 to 3.
Dudley too.
Good job we're not putting all the rules on hold over Christmas too...
maybe your areas ITU capacity isn’t looking good
Good point. ITC occupation is still rising nationwide IIRC, and some regions have very little spare capacity already... never mind if demand keeps rising.
EDIT: third graph here... https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare
And the annual "winter NHS crisis" (always unforeseeable, despite always happening) is coming.... we need this epidemic to be much better under control by then... not just not worse.
One of Swale Boroughs councillors (I think) has stated that their exponential rise is based on the fact that pretty much no one could be arsed to observe the lockdown. Maidstone and Medway border Swale, so...
@kentishman @Kryton57 exactly, Kent is not too bad overall (numbers falling) but the bad districts are REALLY bad (amongst the worst in the country I believe) Dover, Swale, Thanet, Gravesend etc. It's disappointing as I'm in an area of fairly low incidence where people generally ARE observing the lockdown restrictions, but totally expected!
Dover, Swale, Thanet, Gravesend etc
Has Farage been on tour, telling people that (now, he's said the opposite before) lockdown is misguided, and should be resisted?
@Kelvin if I were to suggest that the sterotypically "pleb" areas were trending towards non-compliance and rampant coronavirus infection, whereas the traditionally more affluent areas were behaving themselves and are doing OK I would be jumped on by the STW-woke-massif, so of course I will not be suggesting that 😉 I will just note that absolutely no-one in Kent is surprised in the slightest by this micro-regional variation in infection rates!
What you're seeing in Kent is what's been going on in W Yorks and NW England since the end of July. If you live outside the hotspots/inner city areas, it's irrelevant as you're all lumped in together at a council or county level.
There isn't an easy way to do it though.
[t:dr] A chance finding in a poorly executed trial calls into question the veracity of the data as a whole and makes regulatory approval more challenging.
thanks @TiRed. I saw that for some of the placebos it was actually the meningitis vaccine rather than just (i assume) distilled water). Assume that doesn't matter...
As of 2 weeks ago, East Sussex had the lowest rates in England. Its been sky rocketing since. My local experience shows a lot of uni children coming home from bad areas before lockdown to live with family.
I kinda feel that the above several posts answer the questions as to why the new Tiers/allocation are as they are. They are they to stop current increases, and with an anticipated bump over Christmas protect ITU in Jan/Feb.
I kinda feel that the above several posts answer the questions as to why the new Tiers/allocation are as they are. They are they to stop current increases, and with an anticipated bump over Christmas protect ITU in Jan/Feb.
So shut the schools and non-essential shops as these are a bigger causes of infection than any of the places that have been closed.
It's the lack of logic that annoys people.
With Swale in Kent much of the infections were in the prisons on the island with east Sheppey have a rate of over 1200 per 100K last week.
So shut the schools and non-essential shops as these are a bigger causes of infection than any of the places that have been closed.
It’s the lack of logic that annoys people.
I’m not defending the point despite having two kids of my own in school, but Hancock said earlier and specifically in parliament, that the strategy was a balance of economy, education and to protect the NHS. Of course what he didn’t add to that - not my insensitive words btw - was acceptable loss which is surely in their consideration
Slight detour but @zilog6128 are you based in Kent? I am from Kent original and family all live there still so regularly visit (not this year though).
My sister is in the NHS in Kent and has seen the impact of the increase in hospitalisations and infections directly. My niece is currently self isolating due to a positive case in her school bubble.
I'm not sure where @pondlife has gone to
But re his discussion about Ofcom censoring 'the science'
Here is a good example of how IPSOS is plainly not up to the job of shutting down fake news, I this case Facebook actually stepped in
https://twitter.com/mjrobbins/status/1329827545013948421?s=19
The Spectator should not be able to get away with publishing this kind of rubbish, the headline & the article both misleading & neither reflect what the study said, nor the reality.
saw that for some of the placebos it was actually the meningitis vaccine
That doesn’t help with interpretation. In the most cautious view, they go with the 60%.
There is some jest in what I say, I have a niece who is back at school and is like a different child now she's interacting with kids of her own age again so I know how important keeping schools open is. I also know there is a balance to be struck.
But it doesn't change the fact that the places that the virus spreads the most are being left open when places that the spread is much much lower and being forced to close.
I’ve got no kids but I do remember being one.
Destroying their education and future is not a viable option (even for a government who in theory care only about the short term and pensioners).
I also know there is a balance to be struck.
There is. Which is why a two week half term, and national "lock down" timed to coincide, was the right policy... but we missed that opportunity... and it's not hindsight, it was clear at the time. From where we are now (we shouldn't be here, but there you go) closing schools early is required if families are going to be encouraged (you can say allow, but in reality, that's not how this works) to mix the generations together at Christmas.
As an aside, schools around here are in a mess right now... a week longer half term would have hurt the education of kids around here far less... as long as people were told to stay at home for that half term, rather than mingle and go for trips.
I said it a few pages back, but will say it again, there is very little evidence that Tier 1 was sufficient to control spread. Places like the SW showed impressive increases in hospitalised patients, which have now tailed off since lockdown after reaching the spring peak.
Lockdown shrinks the epidemic.
Tier 3 controls spread and may shrink the epidemic.
Tier 2+ may control spread.
Tier 1 does not control spread.
All of those are with schools open. With that in mind, today’s announcements look sensible. Effects take up to two weeks to manifest in admissions and a further week for deaths.
My daughter is dropping out of her 2nd year of a-levels to do an apprenticeship in January - her teachers have given up, her school has given up, she's getting sod-all help. The education of millions is already ruined.
@the-muffin-man - It's not the end. I dropped out of A-levels twice then went to uni at 22 as a mature student after a few years of dead-end jobs. It made me more determined to succeed whilst there. It must be hard for her but life continues and it could be the making of her.
I'm not sure it's been clearly communicated... but as far as I can tell the strategy now seems to boil down to the below, in order of priority:
1) keep infections under sufficient control so NHS doesn't get overwhelmed whilst waiting for spring/vaccine
2) keep schools open
3) try to keep the economy going as much as possible given (1) and (2)
Playing devils advocate a bit.... you could argue that the current system is more or less 'working' in terms of those objectives. Note that driving down infection rate beyond what is required for point 1 doesn't seem to be on the agenda any more. Which I guess might underpin some of the approach that PHE are taking with schools etc. Public health vs. personal health?
I don't know about others but our kid are off 18th December to 6th Jan, quite a significant time considering the current issues.
Sorry to hear that Muffin-man... I hope the new plan goes better for her.
I don’t know about others but our kid are off 18th December to 6th Jan, quite a significant time considering the current issues.
But... do they need to be off 'till the 6th? If the generations are going to get together, in doors, for extended periods, over Xmas... why not shift the school holidays so the kids are away from their schools for long enough to get though the incubation period before hugging the older members of the family?
We're behind her ElShalimo - she wasn't going to uni anyway and this apprenticeship has come up in the equine world she so desperately want's to work in and with an ex. Olympic rider.
[probably not realistic, my holiday shifting proposal that is, the dates don't work]
But… do they need to be off ’till the 6th? If the generations are going to get together, in doors, for extended periods, over Xmas… why not shift the school holidays so the kids are away from their schools for long enough to get though the incubation period before hugging the older members of the family?
Because that's logical, like an extended break over half term, and this government don't do logical.
and this government don’t do logical
And their kids break up well before the 18th anyway, because they aren't at state schools?
Definitely a lack of joined up thinking around this... especially the "keep things normal for the sake of their education" approach... there is no normal this term, not up here anyway, far from it.
Tier 1 does not control spread.
But gosh darn it, the pubs were closed at 10pm, surely that should have done the trick?
We’re behind her ElShalimo – she wasn’t going to uni anyway and this apprenticeship has come up in the equine world she so desperately want’s to work in and with an ex. Olympic rider.
After completing her apprenticeship and working in the industry for a while nobody would really care about her A-level results anyway - it sounds like this might be a good move at the right time.
There is nothing to say she can't dip back into education at a later date of her circumstances change.
FWIW the new tiers seem to be more logical than the old ones.
Would have thought <50% capacity for events might have been sensible for tier 2. But I guess that might have completely nailed what little currently remains of the events business.
@the-muffin-man - sounds good... there's no money in it... but it's a life, not a job. My brother trains and competes event horses... he was going nowhere near A-levels... considered studying for them waiting for life to start, rather than getting on with it. Different paths for different folks... wish her good luck from us all.