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Well obviously they're treading a fine line between supporting the national effort and deriving party political advantage, but the silence is becoming frustrating. They can support efforts to suppress the spread of the virus, but have a duty to call out Johnson on the economics and what he's doing to support businesses and people financially.
I don't really see why labour will say anything. All the political parties seem to be taking a non partisan approach to all this. The SNP are basically singing from the same hymn sheet as the Tories on this so far, so that tells us alot.
Perhaps people should notice and wind in their political biases on this one.
but the silence is becoming frustrating. They can support efforts to suppress the spread of the virus, but have a duty to call out Johnson on the economics and what he’s doing to support businesses and people financially.
Indeed. I wonder why that's not happening? Its a mystery...
Agree Dazh.
I haven’t heard of a single death in the uk that hadn’t had ‘underlying health issues’.
I haven't read all their notes or heard a proper elaboration of the terminology and its limits. Say you're 50 and have a bit of a high BP, or maybe you're a well-controlled T2 diabetic or mild asthma. do you fit the definition? If so, can your death be portrayed by the authorities as "had it coming - carry on" ? There's a LOT of those people around
Mrs RNP had a temperature last night and developed a dry cough this morning and is feeling shitty. 14 days Netflix and World of Tanks for me!
14 days Netflix and World of Tanks for me!
Hope you've enough toilet roll😂
for the government website linked above
under 70 with an underlying health condition listed below (ie anyone instructed to get a flu jab as an adult each year on medical grounds):
instructed by whom ? going by the medical opinion all asthma sufferers and diabetics are advised to get a flu jab. Does it require a specific letter from your GP ?
We are middle class Guardian lentil eaters so buy boxes of Who Gives a Crap bamboo tp. Thankfully a delivery arrived before it kicked off plus i stick my arse over the bath and blast my clagnuts off with the shower head.
from what I can understand asthmatics will be included in the group told to stay at home for 12 weeks. How have you understood this? My wife is asthmatic and although she could limit her outside exposure we have a 6 year old. When schools no doubt shut could it mean I have to isolate myself from them so that I can still go to work? Strange times!
I was a bit surprised by that, given that there are 5m of us. I'm making it up as I go along, TBH, with the general principle being to minimise risk rather than lock myself away for 12 weeks. That's obviously easier now noone in the household is leaving home to work. There is still nothing forthcoming from government (that I've seen) on the logistics of feeding up to 15m people they've asked to cocoon themselves.
I was a bit surprised by that, given that there are 5m of us.
They give out inhalers to anyone these days.
You shouldn't get 12 weeks off unless you can correctly identify and operate an Intal Spinhaler.
#oldschool #pumpaction
plus i stick my arse over the bath and blast my clagnuts off with the shower head.
The old Bradford Bidet.
RM.
Remdesivir is an experimental broad-spectrum antiviral drug originally designed to target Ebola.
Researchers have found that remdesivir is highly effective at fighting the novel coronavirus in isolated cellsTrusted Source.
This treatment is not yet approved in humans, but two clinical trials for this drug have been implemented in China. One clinical trial was recently also approved by the FDA in the United States.
Now I appreciate the need for caution, but given the options for other treatment in the coming months will probably be limited (judging by italy), is it not maybe worth throwing caution to wind regarding clinical trials.
I mean it's highly likely that when it peaks there will not be enough staff or equipment to treat everyone. At which point if i was at back of queue for a ventilator I'd be delighted if they pumped me full of any drugs that gave me a fighting chance, fda approved or not.
Unless of course there is the risk of some kind of 'I am Legend' scenario occuring ..
Re underlying health conditions - Radio 5Live last night a reporter said something along the lines of "We don't know if any of the fatalities were brought in to hospital with Covid 19 or if they were already in hospital getting treatment and were infected in hospital"
The way they said it and the way the main presenter ignored the obvious follow up made me wonder if reporters sources had let something slip.
One of the chaps behind the modelling that caused the change in policy was on R4 this morning.
He said the measures were to prevent a death toll of 250,000 and limit it to tens of thousands.
Sounds like he is being leant on to me as the 250,000 figure feels like a best case to me whatever we do next.
Incidentally (and slightly mischievous of me) will Whitty, Vallence and anyone else that gets put in front of a microphone have had to sign the Official Secrets Act first?
Hopefully some of those ^^^^^^^^^^ existing drugs will work. We at least know they are suitable for human use and can be manufactured.
Incidentally (and slightly mischievous of me) will Whitty, Vallence and anyone else that gets put in front of a microphone have had to sign the Official Secrets Act first?
You need to sign it to achieve even the barest levels of Security Clearance.
You shouldn’t get 12 weeks off unless you can correctly identify and operate an Intal Spinhaler.
I was an old hand at that. Made f all difference to my asthma, mind you.
We don’t know if any of the fatalities were brought in to hospital with Covid 19 or if they were already in hospital getting treatment and were infected in hospital”
Anecdotally have heard a few stories now about people with other conditions getting nursed in the same bay as a confirmed Covid19 patient.
Plus, the tens of thousands claim is clearly bollocks.
Even if this was 2x or 3x normal seasonal flu mortality, they wouldn't be shitting it like this.
Keep in mind the imperial report didn’t factor in the increased death rate of the ICU beds being not available for 7 out 8 that needed them! So would be a lot higher than 250K if You factor nhs capacity.
It also says we need to act now with the schools.
From what I’ve seen over the last 3-4 weeks is a huge amount of people in denial as to the seriousness of this, despite the available evidence and seeing what is going on in Italy.
I’m wondering if they are intentionally holding back a bit so the ICU beds do run out and a few younger people do die in hospital corridors, so people take the containment measures seriously.
In M'sia they have just recorded three death: one 34 yr old (from religious gathering), 60 year old (with underlying illness) and a pastor (from wedding ceremony). They did not say if the 34 yr old had underlying illness. If equatorial climate can't stop it then cooler climate may become even a major problem.
One of the chaps behind the modelling that caused the change in policy was on R4 this morning.
I know Neil and used to be in the group. We are currently two weeks behind Italy in cases and deaths and tracking them very closely. It does not take a huge inductive logic to say that without intervention Italy is what is coming. Too early and everyone cries wolf, too late is too late. The doubling time for cases and deaths is currently 2.5 to 3 days and intervention will hopefull reduce this. We need to slow epidemic growth because the resource is limited. As for underlying conditions - so what? Those people will need treating, and there is currently an unlimited supply of susceptibles with such conditions to tie up the health services. Preventing mixing is really the only available option. I would have gone further, personally.
^^^^^
But 'tens of thousands' is not realistic, is it?
Whilst predictions of deaths are the headline figure journos like, and there is much uncertainty in parameters underlying transmission (that everyone ignores), when you are >95% certain that all reasonable scenarios will swamp available (and already stretched) health care, you must act. That's the decision that was taken. Probably a bit later than one would have liked. But days do matter in the early exponential epidemic phase.
instructed by whom ? going by the medical opinion all asthma sufferers and diabetics are advised to get a flu jab. Does it require a specific letter from your GP ?
Normally they’ll send a letter, email, use local media as well as the numerous TV and Radio adverts informing people who are or may be legible.
Individual risk is very very low. 5% of 1.2% means 6 people in every 10000 aged between 20-29 will need critical care (ie a ventilator)
also worth noting that if your ill enough to be stuck in ITU for a couple of weeks, then your body will have gone through hell and can very often have long term problems after
so for everyone who dies in ITU, the other one that survives will need further healthcare
Just been to the supermarket for a few oddments (needed bin bags mainly) and people are STILL panic-buying!! All I've bought extra of is Crunchy Nut Cornflakes and cans of Pepsi for work next week.
Why are people sticking up on gallons of mineral water? I don't think anywhere has had any issues with their water supply?
People are morons.
It really is that simple
I'm nearly out of Vimto. For a northerner this is a potential life and death situation. I may panic buy two bottles
I do wonder if we’ll get a Boris U-turn on the bars and restaurants thing tomorrow…
Some hopes all he has done is tell customers to stay away which means not triggering insurance claims. Which has nothing to do with BJ getting a third of his day job salary for one evening of standup at the insurance society annual diner.
So it's looking increasingly like the experts that questioned Johnson and Whitty were right.
What a surprise, I hope that teaches those that tell actual experts to shut up and listen to "the best possible science" a lesson.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51915302
This realisation has happened only in the past few days.
However, it is long after other scientists and the World Health Organization had warned of the risks of not going all-out to stop the virus.
LOL!
Maybe our "best possible science" is ****ing shock horror, not better than the rest of the worlds. Really utterly shocked that we've displayed epic incompetence again - not.
At yesterdays press conference it was said that London was "weeks" ahead of the rest of the country, and we're also told we're two weeks behind Italy. Surely that would suggest that London should already be in total lockdown?
Aaaaannnd……..I goes to pack bags.
You shouldn’t get 12 weeks off unless you can correctly identify and operate an Intal Spinhaler.
My good god theres a blast from the past! I'd forgotten all about them 🙂
From the rest of that article.
However, the suppression approach comes with major problems.
It effectively requires shutting down parts of society and there is no exit strategy.
As fewer people would be infected there would be little immunity in the population and cases would soar soon after measures were lifted again.
This is the conundrum China now faces. Research suggests 95% of people in Wuhan were still susceptible to the virus at the end of January.
As fewer people would be infected there would be little immunity in the population and cases would soar soon after measures were lifted again.
And then China will reimpose them until such time there is better clarity in terms of effective antivirals or a vaccine.
Even if we don't go down that route, the policy stance has shifted significantly.
https://twitter.com/vdiazucl/status/1239838140371697665
ROFLMAO.
Shambles. A very British ****ing shambles.
I'm confused by the stay at home advice. I have had an ongoing chest infection off and on since January. It seems to clear up then come back again. Went to doctor last Monday and was given course of antibiotics and steroids (I am Slightly asthmatic).
I was still coughing Yesterday so arranged a telephone consultation and was prescribed a different antibiotic and more steroids.
Doctor phoned back 5 minutes later and asked if I was at work and if I was to go home and self isolate for 7 Days.I assume this was because I'm more at risk from chest infection. I was at work so told boss and went home. I repair aircraft components so can't work from home. Phoned the wife who told her boss and she was sent home and is now working from home for 7 days as well. The question is with the 2 of us home are we meant to self isolate for 7 or 14 days. None of us have symptoms but the advice seems to say if more than one person home its 14 days?
Whitty the next Michael Fish then?
required a dose of common sense
It’s not about “common sense”, it is about “show us your working, assumptions and data… not just your conclusions”.
It is 14 days. Just having this debate at work now but if one member of the household shows symptoms the whole household should self isolate for 14 days.
Thought you might find this useful.
OK a bit of a primer on coronavirus COVID-19.
Coronaviruses are enveloped RNA viruses, this means they can survive and remain infective on surfaces for some time, some scientists saying for up to three days. The envelope is made of a lipid (fatty) bilayer which can be disrupted by soap causing the virus to literally fall apart. This is why hand washing, surface washing etc is best done with soap.
So what happens if you touch a contaminated surface and don't wash your hands? Infective virus particles are transferred to your fingers and if you touch your mouth, nose or eyes the virus will be transferred to the mucous membranes so *DON'T TOUCH YOUR FACE*
Now the virus has some protein receptors sticking out of its surface (under electron microscopy this makes the virus look like a crown, corona = crown). These receptors attach the virus to your cell, it then injects its RNA into your cell.
You are now infected but not infectious or symptomatic.
The virus RNA hijacks your DNA and causes it to start making copies of itself, at the end of approx 3 days all these new copies are released to infect new cell and be released into the environment.
You are now infected and infectious but not symptomatic.
in fact during this phase which may last 2 days you are at your most infectious, you are a super shedder leaving active virus everywhere. When you are shedding you can disperse viruses on your breath for approx 1 meter which is why the recommended distance you keep from other people is 2 meters.
Your body's immune system now mounts a response, trying to clear the virus from your system, this is when you get symptoms such as cough, fever, headache, difficulty breathing etc. These are due to your immune response not the virus. For most people these symptoms are fairly mild.
You are now infected, infectious and symptomatic.
The consensus is that this phase lasts 7 days and although you will test positive as you are still infected you are no longer infectious.
You are still infected but no longer infectious or symptomatic.
Why so many deaths then? In some people the immune system over-reacts causing a cytokine cascade and you develop bilateral, interstitial pneumonia. Bottom line - your lungs fill up with fluid and you drown. This is why the panic about ICU beds and ventilators.
OK to explain the quarantine/self-isolation lengths:
If you have possibly been exposed but are showing no symptoms then 14 days will allow the virus to run through its course and at the end of 14 days you will no longer be infectious.
If you are showing symptoms or you test positive then 7 days will take you to the end of the infective period.
The purpose of this is to protect other people from you not vice versa. If it turns out you don't have coronovirus then you've just had to spend some boring time at home.
So:
Wash your hands with soap and water
Don't touch your face
Stay 2 meters away from other people
Don't shake hands, and most, most definitely don't do Spanish style greeting kisses. Namaste is becoming popular.
Follow the govt advice on self-isolating.
Good luck, hopefully see you on the other side.
CAVEAT: this is very simplified so don't go getting all pedantic on my ass
None of us have symptoms but the advice seems to say if more than one person home its 14 days?
If one person in the house has the symptoms then the whole household isolates for 14 days.
https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavirus-covid-19/self-isolation-advice/
The question is with the 2 of us home are we meant to self isolate for 7 or 14 days. None of us have symptoms but the advice seems to say if more than one person home its 14 days?
The seven days is for someone who may be/is already ill (you), the 14 days is for other family members who are currently well but who you may have already, or currently be, infecting, as they will take time to show symptoms.
You've been told to self-isolate because you reported a cough, and may have Covid 19, not as a protective measure. Seems unlikely given the timescale, unless your cough that gets better then returns is actually separate infections, but chances are even if it had been continuous since January, you'd have been given that advice.
EDIT: Seems it's now 14 days for the symptomatic person as well. So 14 days all round.
Went to Edinburgh IKEA for some cot bed sheets this morning, as my son had been sick on all of his last night.
It seemed like any other Tuesday I would guess, people eating in the restaurant, people browsing.... I was shocked, but also not really surprised. Unfortunately for this to work I think we're going to have to pass laws, rather than 'advise'. By the time people realise themselves it will be too late
https://twitter.com/hancocktom/status/1239669605586604032
Best science. Biggly science. Better than everyone elses.
Any word on the Tour de France?
Can't see it going ahead after Macron's statement last night.
You are now infected and infectious but not symptomatic.
in fact during this phase which may last 2 days you are at your most infectious, you are a super shedder leaving active virus everywhere.
The evidence base for this has changed, and it is now thought that the most infectious stage is while you have symptoms. This doesn’t change how you should behave though… if in contact with someone who has already shown symptoms (eg someone you live with) then you should stay away from people in case you are infectious despite having no symptoms.
Went to Edinburgh IKEA for some cot bed sheets this morning, as my son had been sick on all of his last night.
It seemed like any other Tuesday I would guess, people eating in the restaurant, people browsing…. I was shocked, but also not really surprised. Unfortunately for this to work I think we’re going to have to pass laws, rather than ‘advise’. By the time people realise themselves it will be too late
How were the shelves?
From the rest of that article.
The virus can't survive for long outside a human host, so it buys them time until a vac is/if produced. The Chinese are screening all arrivals at the airport for the virus.
How were the shelves?
He'll let you know when he's put them up
Boom! Boom!
The virus can’t survive for long outside a human host, so it buys them time until a vac is/if produced.
72 hours on a hard surface iirc.
Boom! Boom!
and that's the sound of badly assembled shelves falling down
Any word on the Tour de France?
Got to be odds on cancelled.
https://twitter.com/Johnrashton47/status/1239900921536053248
Haha. Got retweeted by John.
Well if anything, this shitstorm on twitter is highly entertaining.
How were the shelves?
He’ll let you know when he’s put them up
Thank you binners! I'll set them up, you knock them down.
(I probably used the wrong wall fittings)
As fewer people would be infected there would be little immunity in the population and cases would soar soon after measures were lifted again.
Yup, that's the balance they're trying to strike.
This crisis was entirely preventable.
Yeah, er, hmm.
Anyway.
for this to work I think we’re going to have to pass laws, rather than ‘advise’
considering the massive entitlement and chip on shoulder that some folk in my village are exhibiting, you are damn right, and the sooner the better
On the spot fines - or similar - would be a good start, it wouldn't take much to clamp down on 90% of the terence fwits and the I'll-do-what-I-damn-well-please types.
Yup, that’s the balance they’re trying to strike.
And they shouldn’t be… until enough is understood to be sure about the “herd immunity via exposure” theory, policy should be to stop/reduce spread. Full stop. This is needed to buy us time to learn more about how to deal with this virus, and so that the health system(s) can cope with all the cases that need medical attention.
I’m starting to wonder if Rayaban’s employer will even notice any difference if he self isolates.
I’m striating to wonder if Rayaban’s employer will even notice
I'm sure he'll draw a line somewhere.
I’m starting to wonder if Rayaban’s employer will even notice any difference if he self isolates.
Lies and slander!
We're in shutdown!
lol @ UK GOV: 'Anyone know anyone whose selling any of them ventilators? Will pay cash, nice one - the UK gov'
lol @ UK GOV: ‘Anyone know anyone whose selling any of them ventilators? Will pay cash, nice one – the UK gov’
Well, I for one am sat at home, whisky in hand, pissing myself with laughter.
Sorry folk, this episode is even more incompetent than Brexit. Only thing you can do is laugh.
Only thing you can do is laugh.
...assuming you have sufficient breath.
Otherwise a wheezy chuckle will have to do
Daz and Perchy.
That's just too much. Stop it. I'll pass out from the laughter.
Just been to nearest Sainsbos.
Things must be bad as the nobheads are panic buying fresh stuff now.
You just know that a heftier than normal % of that is going to get thrown out in a week uneaten.
Utter, utter, utter cretins.
Was that going by what was left on the shelves, or did you see trollies piled up with fresh goods?
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v8ninetyYou’re right, but it’s personal responsibility time. Time to up our media analysis game. Don’t be passive recipients of the news, be active, critical analysts of it
Oh the irony. The reports from doctors in Italy say that 1:5 of the hospitalised cases in ICU are under 50 and with NO underlying health issues.
By all means continue working, but don’t for a second think this is just another Covid Virus. It’s not the 5th covid that’s the problem, it’s the fact that it’s the seconds SARS virus that’s killing people. The virus is actually called SAR CoV2. As in the second iteration of SARS which killed so many so quickly back in 2003.
Was that going by what was left on the shelves, or did you see trollies piled up with fresh goods?
Both. Lots of shifty looks. Might be shame, might be "I don't actually know what the **** a pimento pepper is, but at least I've got one".
I tell a bit of a lie. A notable non-empty section had plenty of Brussel Sprouts in it.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/03/16/britain-coronavirus-disaster/
A good explainer for us lay people on the time lags involved, and why we’re always looking at how things were, not how they are, when looking at the numbers.
Oh, and…
exceptionalism will cost lives
The reports from doctors in Italy say that 1:5 of the hospitalised cases in ICU are under 50 and with NO underlying health issues.
Linky?
Sir Patrick valance on BBC news answering question to ccmittee. Reckon 55000 cases is a reasonable estimate at the minute.
Chaos Stability with Ed Miliband:
This is what we should be doing. Every word of it. And to think that I didn’t vote for his party when he was the candidate to be our PM. In hindsight, I was a ****wit.
Patrick Vallance being questioned now on bbc news24