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the wifes working from home today as a test. I'm have to do some work 🙁
c99.7% will recover without need for medical intervention
If that were true, then your claims of hysteria would be valid.
[edit - oh, you filtered out all the people that are most likely to need medical intervention to get your figure. Fun with maths.]
Very well said v8ninety, people need to get a grip.
transient effects of this virus being the main cause of deaths in vulnerable, multi comorbidity patient groups instead of influenza this year.
I especially liked that sentence.
That's a relief crazy-legs. Judging by the sound of the road near me and the amount of red still on Google Maps I'd assumed the advice was being completely ignored.
crazy legs - are you on the hazel grove to blackpool north train?
I'd assumed the advice was being completely ignored.
Well it was the same advice that the AA dish out when it snows.
c99.7% will recover without need for medical intervention
If that were true, then your claims of hysteria would be valid
It’s not true.
V8Ninety cite those claims and statistics please. That imperial paper states that 1.2 percent of 20-29 year olds will require hospitalisation, do you know something they don’t with that 99.7 number?
The scary thing isn’t just the lack of immunity, we lack immunity to many new variants of flu, it’s the virulence as well.
The human immune system is amazing and on an individual level it will respond well, but there are questions as to whether the immune response and corresponding immunological memory will be strong enough to confer herd immunity.
Predictions of half a million dead…..but ca 600K people die naturally in the UK every year.
Yes, but what matters are the added deaths.
I mean otherwise we’d be able to start world war three and justify it because half a million people die of natural causes each year.
Yes, but what matters are the added deaths.
I mean otherwise we’d be able to start world war three and justify it because half a million people die of natural causes each year.
Yes, if you could fight WW3 and almost all the casualties were people already at deaths door and weren't going to survive the year then yes, WW3 would be easier to justify.
Corvid-19 isn't going to be a doddle but to a large degree we're talking about changing the cause of death, not adding new deaths.
Obviously the media aren't going to report net deaths because the gross number sells more media.
Corvid-19 isn’t going to be a doddle but to a large degree we’re talking about changing the cause of death, not adding new deaths.
You can’t state that because we don’t have the data.
Most 65 year olds aren’t going to die this year due to other natural causes.
You work in a lab. Presumably it has sinks?
No hot water and ran out of soap
Schools are out of soap here as well. Tried to buy some myself to send in with the kids, but no joy.
That’s a relief crazy-legs. Judging by the sound of the road near me and the amount of red still on Google Maps I’d assumed the advice was being completely ignored.
I’ve just taken a peak on traffic cameras around Newcastle it is noticeable quite.
And I still can’t work out the advice for diabetic kids, so we’re carrying on as normal for now. The other diabetics have been kept home though.
there are questions as to whether the immune response and corresponding immunological memory will be strong enough to confer herd immunity.
Well there's no vaccine and may never be one, so if we don't get immunity by contractinig it either why close down our economy for 24 months? We might as well just live with the new reality, and deal with the pain right now.
Unless the plan is to shut down for a finite time until we have x new beds/staff/ventilators in which case great but nowhere is doing that.
It'll be fine though as we are rapidly running out of kids to teach and teachers to teach them, expect only Yr11 and 13's to be in school soon.
Train has about 1/4 the normal number of passengers at most
Whereas my usual train was as busy as it always is. Go figure. Leeds station was noticeably emptier than usual though.
economy for 24 months? We might as well just live with the new reality, and deal with the pain right now
Which will make us an international
pariah as everywhere else is preparing to respond with multiple containment’s to deal with each wave, with containment and social distancing breaks between the predicted peaks.
so if we don’t get immunity by contractinig it either why close down our economy for 24 months
Brilliant logic, someone should tell the MERS responders that it was pointless.
Our economy will tank anyway if the rest of the world follows a different path.
the wife put it succinctly….
He’s a coward.
the government are not fronting anyone for the round of morning news… its a * disgrace.
A coward is exactly what he is. He's basically been hidden under his desk for weeks now. And the implications for us all of his cowardice are pretty bloody serious.
Anyone with any authority (or any balls) would have ordered bars, restaurants and theatres shut yesterday. Instead he told everyone that they shouldn't go to bars, restaurants and theatres. A total fudge to absolve himself and the useless nodding dogs around him of responsibility for anything, and means that the owners of those businesses, and their employees, have just been told "you're on your own". No government support, no insurance claims. let 'The Market' decide.
Hundreds of thousands of people are about to lose their jobs immediately as a result of that one half-arsed decision. The hospitality industry is about to collapse. Businesses are going to fold, left, right and centre.
The government have offered £12 billion to help out business. 12 *ing billion! Thats neither here nor there in the face of this shitstorm. Spaffing 12 billion away is just a bad morning at the office for Chris Grayling.
One thing that this is ruthlessly exposing is the total inadequacies of the nationalist populists like Trump and Johnson and the sycophantic incompetents they've surrounded themselves with. They both look like rabbits in the ****ing headlights.
Maybe the respective electorates might think twice about the wisdom of voting for over-privileged jesters and wealth-inheriting, reality TV gobshites as 'leaders'
Corvid-19 isn’t going to be a doddle but to a large degree we’re talking about changing the cause of death, not adding new deaths.
You can’t state that because we don’t have the data.
Pardon my french but it’s bloody obvious. I haven’t heard of a single death in the uk that hadn’t had ‘underlying health issues’. COVID-19 Is particularly deadly for this patient group; it’s more likely to kill them than any current endemic disease, I expect. But for fit, healthy adults, the risk is negligible at an individual level, and our collective societal efforts are better spent protecting the vulnerable and keeping the economy going than hysterically running around in circles shouting ‘show me the evidence or I’m gonna die!’ And generally fretting.
Brilliant logic, someone should tell the MERS responders that it was pointless.
Your hypothesis, not mine. I think you're wrong. I think we do get resistance because so few people have had it twice, that can't be coincidence. We have plenty of data.
Yes, but what matters are the added deaths.
Selective quoting much......?
As I said the Venn diagram of cv19 deaths and people who would have died anyway this year of something else will have a massive overlap. I can understand why that isn't being reported widely, because it's a/ a guess and b/ fear response is part of the impetus to act but that doesn't make it wrong.
Just been down to the local shop (a Co-op). Very few tinned tomatoes or tinned veg, no pasta (along with pasta cook-in sauces), virtually no flour - I think there was a single kilo bag of plain left, about 50% stock of toilet rolls. Apart from that all shelves were full or being filled with new stock.
Joked with the woman at the till: "What are we panic buying today?" She just rolled her eyes and muttered "crazy". "There's stock in the system but we only have so much shelf and storage space. If the delivery truck is late or we are busy serving and can't get the deliveries onto the shelves then people think there's a shortage.".
The woman behind me in the queue had a Down's Syndrome son and she was obviously worried about him but had been unable to find any advice about his situation since pretty much everything was aimed at the elderly.
Pardon my french but it’s bloody obvious. I haven’t heard of a single death in the uk that hadn’t had ‘underlying health issues’. COVID-19 Is particularly deadly for this patient group; it’s more likely to kill them than any current endemic disease, I expect. But for fit, healthy adults, the risk is negligible at an individual level, and our collective societal efforts are better spent protecting the vulnerable and keeping the economy going than hysterically running around in circles shouting ‘show me the evidence or I’m gonna die!’ And generally fretting.
+1
The fact people have it and don't know they have it isn't really pointing to it being a significant killer for most healthy people.
In contrast people will be killing themselves because their business has folded or because they've lost their job. Or maybe people will die beacuse tax revenues have dropped because we've shut down half the economy.
We deffo need to get a grip and calmly follow the guidelines. There will be plenty of time for hysteria later if there's concrete stuff to get hysterical about.
Pardon my french but it’s bloody obvious. I haven’t heard of a single death in the uk that hadn’t had ‘underlying health issues’.
Oh well, let’s all defer to your anecdotes then. The imperial paper posted further back states that 1.2 percent of 20-29 year olds who are infected will require hospitalisation. That directly conflicts with your statement.
We have plenty of data
We do not, hence actual experts questioning the governments assumptions.
I think it’s pretty obvious they’re going to have to announce additional measures ASAP, possibly even today. This would be consistent with the way we’ve been drip fed information/advice.Hundreds of thousands of people are about to lose their jobs immediately as a result of that one half-arsed decision. The hospitality industry is about to collapse. Businesses are going to fold, left, right and centre.
So I wouldn’t get too hysterical just yet. This is an unprecedented situation & things are changing very very quickly right now.
The fact people have it and don’t know they have it isn’t really pointing to it being a significant killer for most healthy people.
Do people with diabetes or asthma not matter from your point of view then?
Tell you what, if you want to be offensive, then it’s the choice of people who kill themselves after losing their jobs. Tough titties.
The rest of the world are entering a tough containment phase, our economy is borked anyway.
deleted by silverneedle
Rest of the world doesn’t think that it’s time to stop containment. I wonder why.
Could it be because of all the experts with opposing views, many of which have already been posted?
I smell Tories, who want to keep hold of their money at the cost of others.
Im with outofbreath here but logic isnt winning
Anecdotes don’t make a logical argument.
Just to chip in with the mental health aspect
My partners has been suffering from post natal depression for a while. She quit her job as a teacher as a result of this and started her business which she has basically just had to shut down. We also had to up our childcare to help her cope (v expensive). Both of these have completely depleted our financial reserves.
We have no savings, isas or anything else left, and very little money in our bank account
We are at risk of bankruptcy and not being able to pay mortgage, she is struggling to look after kids (1 and 3). Everything depends on my job, and my employers is in very poor financial health too.
I am worried this will push her over the edge.
.. but we are both at very low risk from the virus itself (under 40 and in good health)
The imperial paper posted further back states that 1.2 percent of 20-29 year olds who are infected will require hospitalisation.
...but they aren't randomly testing 20-29 year olds and there's no test to see if someone has had the virus and it's gone away.
So that 1.2pc is 1.2pc of people who were *so* ill that they sought medical help. The real number will be smaller.
I think it’s pretty obvious they’re going to have to announce additional measures ASAP, possibly even today.
That'd be nice. Maybe they will, maybe they won't. Maybe it'll just be left to 'the Market' to sort out, like everything else. The whole thing is just a massive fudge.
What it smacks of is a government sketching this out on the back of a fag packet, without considering even the most screamingly obvious economic consequences for huge numbers of people
Doesn't exactly inspire confidence does it. The government has effectively washed its hands of a whole sector of the economy. Do you honestly think thats the last example of that we'll see, given the obvious limitations of the shower of *-wits presently nominally in charge
Boris Johnson has the haunted look of a man who's in the process of being ruthlessly exposed for what he is... an opportunist chancer who, now the shit has hit the fan, hasn't got a *ing clue what to do
…but they aren’t randomly testing 20-29 year olds and there’s no test to see if someone has had the virus and it’s gone away.
So that 1.2pc is 1.2pc of people who were *so* ill that they sought medical help. The real number will be smaller.
You don’t think the imperial paper took that into account?
I give up. It’s like some people WANT it to be the end times. FFS. Grow up.
but they aren’t randomly testing 20-29 year olds and there’s no test to see if someone has had the virus and it’s gone away.
So that 1.2pc is 1.2pc of people who were *so* ill that they sought medical help. The real number will be smaller.
As I understand it, this is the "population testing" that was being discussed yesterday? That would be sampling more randomly so we can work out how many folk have it with symptoms, how many have it without symptoms and how many have had it but didn't even know. That seems like a much more scientific basis for tracking spread and NOT what we've been doing to date.
Dont make stuff up then.
I haven’t heard of a single death in the uk that hadn’t had ‘underlying health issues’. COVID-19 Is particularly deadly for this patient group; it’s more likely to kill them than any current endemic disease, I expect. But for fit, healthy adults, the risk is negligible at an individual level, and our collective societal efforts are better spent protecting the vulnerable and keeping the economy going than hysterically running around in circles shouting ‘show me the evidence or I’m gonna die!’ And generally fretting.
That's my view on it too. It's why I'm not going to visit my parents unless it's absolutely necessary and keeping up on my personal hygiene routines. Any activity outdoors will be done at quiet areas and visiting friends will be kept to a minimum as most of them have kids. There's plenty of ways to keep in contact with everyone I know to stem off the sense of loneliness but as I like being alone a lot of the time that's not a major concern. I'm technically an 'at risk' person due to my asthma but as long as I can avoid sitting at home eating crap and get regular exercise to keep my fitness ticking over I can keep it under control with inhalers as a fall-back.
Being sensible and thinking of others is the key from my point of view.
The irony of it is that it's the healthy, fit people, who it's hardly really likely to have any lasting effect on are the ones running around like headless chickens, buying 500 bog rolls and half a ton of pasta and barricading themselves in their homes.
The older generation, for who the implications are potentially life-threatening, are the ones who won't be told to stay indoors (actually... they won't be told anything), and are busy banging on about having survived the blitz and other associated bollocks
The fact people have it and don’t know they have it isn’t really pointing to it being a significant killer for most healthy people.In contrast people will be killing themselves because their business has folded or because they’ve lost their job. Or maybe people will die beacuse tax revenues have dropped because we’ve shut down half the economy.
Oh come along, don't be so selfish, how else will the banks ensnare everyone into debt slavery?
https://twitter.com/George_Osborne/status/1239669817050873856
George Osbourne.... the new Norman Lamont
other associated bollocks
Its called maturity, resilience and a lack of entitlement.
You're right rayban, we have no data so stop acting like you know better than every other **** and keep your hysterical doom mongering to yourself.
The mental health effects of this are probably going to be far greater than the virus itself. Spreading fear and bullshit will not help.
Some of you really need to step away from the computer, go have a **** or just do anything to get your minds away from the media bullshit. Roving gangs raping and pillaging? FFS get a ****ing grip you fanny.
Spaffing 12 billion away is just a bad morning at the office for Chris Grayling.
He'd probably call it a roaring success and go out for a 15 course expensed lunch.
It’s like some people WANT it to be the end times.
No one does.
But adopting a “they’ll probably die soon anyway” approach to this, and pretending you have the data to back this up, will rile people worried about their loved ones. If it’s not your intention to wind people up, try self moderating your own posts with that in mind.
Its called maturity, resilience and a lack of entitlement
I suppose the young millennials in nursing roles, labs or wearing masks so as to limit the spread aren’t mature.
And that the millennials calling for action so that similar stupidity (eg climate change) doesn’t happen in the future, are all entitled?
My school had 30% absence from students yesterday, we think it is far more today, and with pregnant staff ebing told to go home we have about 20% staff absence!
General feeling is Bojo won't order anything to close, so he can't be blamed, but when we have to close (not enough staff for ratio) then he can blame malingering teachers for the problem!
Its called maturity, resilience and a lack of entitlement.
OK Boomer
The older generation we're talking about are most post-war babies. There are very few blitz survivors left nowadays. There will be even less by the end of the summer
General feeling is Bojo won’t order anything to close, so he can’t be blamed, but when we have to close (not enough staff for ratio) then he can blame malingering teachers for the problem!
Just like all other sectors, the decision to close or change working practices will have to (at first) come from outside the UK government. As is already happening in Northern Ireland.
The older generation we’re talking about are most post-war babies.
+1
What I remember of my grandparents is that they were totally different to the boomers who came after them, much more socially responsible.
Talking of the older generation, my parents are both in the at risk category 65 & 73 with underlying health issues. On the face of it they're saying if they die then so be it, they've had a good stab at life and we've all got to go sometimes.
Also there's a bus stop over the road from my house. At 9:30 the usual queue of OAPs was there with their bus passes in hand to all get on the fairly full bus, carrying on as usual.
I do wonder what the wider view of the older population is and how closely it reflects the above.
The older generation, for who the implications are potentially life-threatening, are the ones who won’t be told to stay indoors
They will that’s already been stated.
They will that’s already been stated.
if my mother is anything to go by, being told, and listening to are two different things...
Language issue there I think… “won’t be told” can mean two quite different things.
Roving gangs raping and pillaging? FFS get a **** grip you fanny.
This wasn’t me - but have you considered a lot of this is gallows humour. I think you need to aim that diatribe at yourself. People need to and will vent with that kind of humour.
If you are going to post numbers, don’t magic them out of thin air, cite a source that details how those numbers have been calculated.
That’s all that needs to be said, be patient with people panicking. This is new to them. If you have data that 99.7 of those infected below 65 will not need hospitalisation, great! Awesome news! Let us see the working out or source please. If you don’t, don’t say it.
Well, my lot are self-isolating now for the next two weeks. Daughter has the remnants of a four-week-old cough, which was enough to get the recommendation yesterday over the phone from a doctor. Both I and my wife are in a moderate risk group (asthmatics), so working from home from now on.
I doubt the kids will be going back to school in the foreseeable, even if they aren't closed. Most of my daughter's teachers didn't turn up today anyway.
Someone mentioned 9/11. Actually, when I was coming back from a ride yesterday and the city was beginning to lock down - no kids in the streets is a very weird feeling on a Sunday afternoon in Spain - it reminded me of walking into central London the day of the tube/bus bombs. There were a handful of people around looking pensive. Movement is restricted now for anything other than work/supplies/carers so the building sites are still busy, buses running (with the driver sealed off in the front), people walking their dogs, albeit alone, and the atmosphere is really, really weird.
Language issue there I think… “won’t be told” can mean two quite different things.
🤦🏻♂️ Shit!
Ok it’s a very small majority that won’t be told though. Probably no worse than those videos of the arrogant Brits in Benidorm drinking in th streets.
The imperial paper posted further back states that 1.2 percent of 20-29 year olds who are infected will require hospitalisation
Individual risk is very very low. 5% of 1.2% means 6 people in every 10000 aged between 20-29 will need critical care (ie a ventilator)
Some quick maths, 65 mil population, say 15% at that age group and 50% get it- almost 3000 people that age would require critical care. Or around 15000 between age of 40-50.
So on an individual level your chances are good , but collectively, thats alot of young deaths if the nhs falls over.
@martinhutch - from what I can understand asthmatics will be included in the group told to stay at home for 12 weeks. How have you understood this? My wife is asthmatic and although she could limit her outside exposure we have a 6 year old. When schools no doubt shut could it mean I have to isolate myself from them so that I can still go to work? Strange times!
OK Boomer
Being educated to the issues and being sensible about them is very different to burying your head in the sand as your implication suggests.
The older generation, for who the implications are potentially life-threatening, are the ones who won’t be told to stay indoors (actually… they won’t be told anything), and are busy banging on about having survived the blitz and other associated bollocks
My dad insists he will be fine going into Waitrose.
Apparently his driving is perfectly safe as well.
My school had 30% absence from students yesterday, we think it is far more today, and with pregnant staff ebing told to go home we have about 20% staff absence!
Similar here!
from what I can understand asthmatics will be included in the group told to stay at home for 12 weeks. How have you understood this?
This is exactly the sort of thing that the Govt needs to give clear guidance on.
The only guideline that's been issued thus far is "adults who normally receive the flu vaccine"
That include me but does it include my 14 year old son who also gets the vaccine?
General feeling is Bojo won’t order anything to close, so he can’t be blamed
Contrast Johnson with other european leaders.
Macron: 'No business will go bankrupt because of this'
Conte: 'This is my decision, I will take responsibility'
Sanchez: 'We are committed to mitigating the economic effects'
Merkel: 'We will do what is necessary'
Johnson: (paraphrasing) 'Crikey, this is a bit mental isn't it!'
This is no time for a joker to be in charge. He's got days to get a grip on this and start showing some leadership, otherwise this will be much worse than it already is.
Being educated to the issues and being sensible about them is very different to burying your head in the sand as your implication suggests.
Former Home Secretary David Blunkett (aged 72 and presumably pretty well educated) has just refused to self isolate and says its unfair to ask the elderly to do so.
Like I said... won't be told
Fair enough. Darwinism innit?
This is no time for a joker to be in charge.
https://twitter.com/peterjukes/status/1239856538807910400?s=21
He can't help himself, can he?
Absolutely *ing useless! Worse than ing useless, in fact.
Everything, even this, is all still just a game. A jolly jape. A wizard wheeze, what-ho!
We've got a man who's supposedly in charge who's never had any consequences for any of the actions or decisions he's ever taken in his whole gilded life. Just waltzed off into the sunset and left others to clear up his mess. Just like his Eton chum, Dave.
A luxury not afforded to the rest of us.
And the mess from this is going to be pretty spectacular
A lot of folk are having trouble processing what is happening.
We must not panic. Calm down.
Young healthy people will get through this. Your health will be fine in the long run. And we are in this for the long haul.
Take practical action where appropriate.
Where a household has a high risk person, place a sign on the door. Mine reads
STOP! HIGH RISK PERSONS LIVE HERE
1. RING/KNOCK
2. DELIVER
3.STEP BACK 3 PACES
You might think it's tinfoil hat, but it is a simple measure that could save my life.
This is exactly the sort of thing that the Govt needs to give clear guidance on.
The only guideline that’s been issued thus far is “adults who normally receive the flu vaccine”That include me but does it include my 14 year old son who also gets the vaccine?
14 yr old is not "an adult" therefore the guidance is that he does not need to follow the additional social distancing steps AT THIS TIME. Advice seems pretty clear.
I'm in the same boat robbo. If my asthmatic wife gets locked down for 12 weeks she doesn't want to be apart from the kids. She's expecting a letter? from gp/phe explaining what the next steps are soon. We need money to pay for stuff so, if it comes to that, I'll be moving out for 3 months and going to work.
I haven’t heard of a single death in the uk that hadn’t had ‘underlying health issues’.
The ones that needed ventilators will have got them.....for now.
It feels like one of those mind scrambling puzzles, you know the answer but because you don't like the answer your brain won't allow you to comprehend it.
'YOU CAN'T HANDLE THE TRUTH', a few good men :@)
Community projects for volunteers are needed asap but difficult with a virus that discourages interaction. Facebook could actually have a real purpose 👍
We need some long term answers to keep the economy ticking along and it's a perfect time for a new way.
He can’t help himself, can he?
Never in my life have I been as shocked and angry at the actions of a british PM. And I don't think it's just us lefties thinking this. Christ, it's so bad I'm even thinking Michael Gove would be preferable. I understand their reluctance to be seen to be politicising this, but labour need to start speaking out forcefully on Johnson's lack of leadership, especially on the economic issue.
Advice seems pretty clear.
Glad you think so. I still can’t work it out. Kids and teens with underlying health issues could do with a clear statement in the gov guidelines. Parents are having to make it up themselves at the moment.
Individual risk is very very low. 5% of 1.2% means 6 people in every 10000 aged between 20-29 will need critical care (ie a ventilator)
Some quick maths, 65 mil population, say 15% at that age group and 50% get it- almost 3000 people that age would require critical care. Or around 15000 between age of 40-50.
So on an individual level your chances are good , but collectively, thats alot of young deaths if the nhs falls over.
Posted
The imperial paper has it that in an unmitigated scenario 81 percent of the total the population will be infected. That leaves little room for such significant variance in infection rates between age groups. I suspect that there will be differences in infection rates, not sure it will be 30 percent lower than the total infection rate.
Do we have any data on the difference in infection rates between age groups?
Risk ground information can be found here.
but labour need to start speaking out forcefully on Johnson’s lack of leadership
The who? The Labour party? Do they still exist? I'd just assumed they'd called it a day?
On the high risk thing, I read this..Risk factors
On one hand having an addition desease only raises the chances of requiring intensive care by 80% (ie if young the odds are still very much in your favour), yet it then goes on to say 10% of folks with a heart condition/6% with hypertension etc die?
Is that because 10% of folks with heart conditions also just happen to be very old with knackered immune systems and that isn't an adjusted figure taking into account age? As there seems a large discrepancy between the 2 figures.
Also, what constitutes an underlying health issue exactly? My mates dad is a regular cyclist yet 2 years ago had a heart bypass. He's fine and dandy now, can cycle 50 miles no problems..does that count?
Or myself, 20 years of bodily abuse, probably arteries like concrete, now 43 and fitter than I've ever been (aerobically at least).
F, we've got Binners on one and someone just mentioned labour, someone save us! 😆