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@thegreatape - only the husband has to self isolate, the rest of the household is a contact of a contact. Doesn't make sense to me but those are the rules
My wife (a nurse) and both my sons have had to self isolate but each time only the immediate contact.
Thanks eskay. I’m struggling to keep up with what one should and shouldn’t do!
Anyone seen the article about Slovakia? They had hardly anything first time, nothing all summer now they're being clobbered. They had a test day where they tested as many people as they could, got half the population tested (2.5m people) which isn't bad considering they didn't ask for kids under 10. Got a positive rate of 1%, and now most people in the country with the virus are in quarantine at the same time. Sounds pretty good! Also love this quote:
The prime minister, Igor Matovič, apologised for putting pressure on people to take part, but said the requirement was justified. “Freedom must go together with responsibility toward those who ... are the weakest among us, oncology patients, old people, people with other diseases,” he told a news conference.
^seems fair and well done if they pulled that off, sounds like a logistical nightmare. A good use of the army as well at peacetime rather than reliance on private companies @ mind blowing cost.
So… locally… in Calderdale… we’re now not going into Tier3 tonight.
It’s impossible to keep up with what the hell the rules/laws/guidance are in the next 24 hours, never mind next month. Ridiculous.
Same for Bradford
Give it a few days and it will change again.
🤦
Is there not because the tier set up has-been suspended pending Thursdays lockdown?.
Is there not because the tier set up has-been suspended pending Thursdays lockdown?.
Or perhaps the numbers are coming down already so no need.
So… locally… in Calderdale… we’re now not going into Tier3 tonight.It’s impossible to keep up with what the hell the rules/laws/guidance are in the next 24 hours, never mind next month. Ridiculous.
Yeah, the going into "proper" lockdown on Thursday with its furlough rules and whatever overrides the plan to go from one Tier to another. We're Tier 2 until Thursday as well.
Iain Duncan Smith made an ill-judged comment about going back into lockdown and how it was "giving in" to scientific advisors which got the appropriate sarcastic responses:
https://www.thepoke.co.uk/2020/11/02/iain-duncan-smith-says-government-gave-in-to-the-scientists/
Or perhaps the numbers are coming down already so no need.
Nope, this is because we're all going into lockdown anyway.
Bonfire night is going to be interesting. Already our a neighbour on our Whatsapp group for the road (where I live), is organising a firework party in a neighbour's front garden. Honestly you can't make this stuff up.
Having been told by a neighbour that I'm Judgemental during the last proper lock down, I'm keeping my thoughts to myself.
Or perhaps the numbers are coming down already so no need.
Most recent data:
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/coronavirus-briefing-situation-report-west-yorkshire-29-oct-2020
Hospital cases is an eye opener.
@BunnyHop - if they have a party once lockdown starts just phone the police
A reminder…
https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1323222744062853122?s=21
A late, longer, open ended, more costly lockdown was a political choice.
A late, longer, open ended, more costly lockdown was a political choice.
The North of England provided the ideal testing ground for a couple of months of local, minimal restrictions.
Luckily the results were in just in time to put a proper lockdown in place and save some lives in more important bits of the country.
Ex-party leader Iain Duncan Smith said the lockdown decision was a "body blow" and accused the government of "giving in" to scientific advisers.
How is giving in to the opinion of people who may actually know what they are talking about ever a bad thing?
That said...it's IDS so shouldn't be surprised he's coming out with such utter shite.
I thought this was a reasonable review of the Cambridge Model - basically it's probably good for about two weeks prediction. Very sensitive to some underlying parameters.
https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/the-innacuracoes-in-the-sage-models/
We will see whether there has been a flattening of the curve due to the "Northern Experiment". Northern Ireland is promising in that respect. A lot of anger on https://lockdownsceptics.org/ but some serious debate too. Of course some hate me I am sure. For the record, I'm neither a lockdown zealot nor sceptic. I think there is good evidence that contact restrictions have an effect on the course of the epidemic, and clearly these come at a financial and emotional cost. One can debate the economic side, and the lives saved, but the epidemic side is now reasonably clear to me.
A new virus more transmissible than flu, much less than measles and a bit less than chickenpox, but with up to four times the mortality rate of influenza, and no protective measures short of non-pharmaceutical interventions, will most likely perturb normal life for about 18 months but come under eventual control using measures that have previously proven successful (testing, treatment, vaccination, patient management).
I think my medium-term predictions have been pretty reasonable. Anything further than six weeks won't be valid anyway. I'd like to see deaths peak by December - that would be a success. Christmas will not be back to normal.
[tl:dr] I'm right 😉 - well I hope I am so proven. Deaths to peak relatively soon, Christmas in a bubble, some degree of normacy within a year. Holiday in the UK again next summer.
Holiday in the UK again next summer.
If that’s the case, I will either be saying “do you want fries with that”, “where to, Gov ?” Or “sign here” at work instead of “roger, roger, over Dover”
😩
Holiday in the UK again next summer.
There were a few months where foreign holidays were allowed this year. Are we thinking it will not be next year (sans quarantine) to our european neighbours?
Bugger, if it's uk holidays then camper prices won't drop for a bit
We'll be allowed to travel abroad next summer. Doesn't mean we should do. Same as this summer. We'll have to wait and see...
We’ll be allowed to travel abroad next summer.
I don't share your confidence but, as you say, we'll see.
I don’t share your confidence but, as you say, we’ll see.
I'm still utterly baffled by people who went abroad this summer (including close friends and relatives)... and I fully predict that even more people will do so next summer. I'm planning for staying in the UK though... we are very unlikely to have community wide vaccinations by the summer, and I don't want to be bringing the virus back on ferries or airplanes if that is the case. We'll be left to make our own call though... I don't see a blanket ban on foreign holidays next summer... just the same confusing shifting guidelines and weak measures as this summer. But in the unlikely event that we do have vaccinations for all... I'm taking a month off and getting the hell out of here.
We’ll be allowed to travel abroad next summer. Doesn’t mean we should do. Same as this summer. We’ll have to wait and see…
Not confident about foreign holidays next year at all, which is a real shame as I have a few things planned for next summer as I'm 40.
I'm still of the opinion that widespread vaccination is at least two years away.
That, combined with all too obvious evidence of 'great British common sense' in action, will continue to shape my attitude and behaviour.
I dont think international travel should be allowed again for recreational purposes unless we get the incoming arrivals screening right. We should be in a position to test every single person on arrival to the UK and quarantine (i.e lock away in a facility for a fortnight and guard it) anyone who tests positive like Asian countries are doing.
None of this sending people home to self isolate because most dont do it and nobody is willing to check on them and actually enforce it.
I agree. But this government will give people the nod to travel in the summer, and still have not bothered to implement any of what you say... (although they might have paid someone they know a hell of a lot of money to introduce something that sounds like what you propose, but is half arsed and infective).
If the current leading vaccine projects actually work then widespread vaccination should be possible for a good proportion of the population.
the dose production volumes are eye watering
We’ll be allowed to travel abroad next summer. Doesn’t mean we should do
This. I won't be traveling. Others may do so. But I don't see a huge difference to last year.
Whatever vaccine we have, I can't see past it being rolled out before next year's flu jab really. The most vulnerable and highest risk probably earlier and rightly so.
Antibody yields are in the tonne amounts! Say 3g per person per year - 15% of 66M vulnerable - 30 tonnes. Of protein! Vaccines had better do something - we need those human bioreactors.
On Saturday Boris was wibbling on about mass testing again but I've not seen any recent news in that area. I know a quick spit test was being trialled in Southampton (?) but how long before that can be rolled out at scale?
I'm going back to work in ITU as of Monday, so please don't be arses for the next month or two...
Good luck Crikey... and thank you.
What's more shocking is people not self isolating when they have been told they should be or even worse when they know they are positive
Can they afford to?
I’m going back to work in ITU as of Monday, so please don’t be arses for the next month or two…
Just watched the BBC News report from ICU at Liverpool. I honestly don't know how you guys get through day after day of that. Thanks again.
What’s more shocking is people not self isolating when they have been told they should be or even worse when they know they are positive
What Kelvin said! Us people on a salary can isolate no problem but someone paid by the hour on a zero hours contract with rent to pay, they don't really have much choice. Gotta go to work.
This was brought up a few months ago and Handcocks answer was well there is national sick pay or some nonsense which is like 30quid a week or something stupid.
@TiRed
3g per person per year?
Am assuming you are expecting a 2 shot dose more than once a year? 1.5g per dose is a lot for a vaccine isn't it?
We’ll be allowed to travel abroad next summer. Doesn’t mean we should do. Same as this summer. We’ll have to wait and see…
I think it was Devi Sridhar who was saying we had really brought virus levels to the point it could be eradicated at the start of the summer. Opening up and encouraging travel then imported the current mutation of the virus. If this is the case then those who are currently arguing for no lock down would also appear to be the ones who were shouting for global travel and removal of restrictions. A definite whiff of cakeism about that.
It does seem daft to bring things under control this winter and then just go for unleash the hoards again import the next mutation. Then we get to go through this all again.
Antibody yields are in the tonne amounts! Say 3g per person per year – 15% of 66M vulnerable – 30 tonnes. Of protein! Vaccines had better do something – we need those human bioreactors.
Is there a risk we can't vaccinate fast enough to deal with the mutations? We seem to have had three main variants in the uk (?) in less than a year.
The spike protein seems to be fairly stable so the vaccine should provide a good enough level of protection. But then who knows how the thing might change.
Not confident about foreign holidays next year at all, which is a real shame as I have a few things planned for next summer as I’m 40.
Brexit will have put paid to any quick cheap easy European getaways anyway.
But yeah, the whole "quarantine" thing was always a joke. No testing at airports other than filling in a form with your address on it (maybe), no follow up, no enforcement. Even if the app told you to self-isolate, there was no enforcement.
there was no enforcement
Mrs K just had conversations with M&S & Smyths who are both remaining open for "click and collect" at the door during lockdown. She asked the Smyths manager how she'd justify picking up a Toy as "essential Travel" and he shrugged his shoulders and said "who's going to check?"
3g per person per year?
Lilly and Regeneron doses are in that ballpark, yes. AZ may be lower as they should have much better residency in the body with their mutated antibody. Lilly gave 100 mg/kg in their clinical trial - That's 7g! It worked the same as their 10 mg/kg (0.7 g). Regeneron is 2 x 2.4 mg/kg per dose, maybe less for prophylaxis. It is a huge amount of protein to make.
I think it was Devi Sridhar who was saying we had really brought virus levels to the point it could be eradicated at the start of the summer
Eradication is not on any agenda. This is here for the long term. It is the fifth endemic coronavirus. People will go on skiing holidays again next year too...