Gentlemen, I salute your crosswordiness...
🙂
Ooh ooh! that’s OBEY!
My parents who are late 60s overweight & series of health conditions, said yesterday theyd rather just risk it instead of going back into lockdown again
They are Johnson fanboys
If Johnson orders Liverpool & Merseyside into lockdown tomorrow there's going to be some trouble, he's really not a popular fellah up there!
It's a skill I've never developed.
In other news, the gossip is that the pub was closed down due to a lack of distancing between tables, which ... I can sort of see... but is a feature of the place which cannot be changed without some major structural work.
Again, the word on the streets is that we/they are all being closed down on Wednesday anyway so I guess it's all academic at the moment.
If Johnson orders Liverpool & Merseyside into lockdown tomorrow there’s going to be some trouble, he’s really not a popular fellah up there!
Have they not realised it isn't Johnson ordering them back in, it's him finally and grudgingly responding to the desperate entreaties of anyone looking at the figures for ICU bed availability in the region?
Have they not realised it isn’t Johnson ordering them back in, it’s him finally and grudginly responding to the desperate entreaties of anyone looking at the figures for ICU bed availability in the region?
Well as Johnson famously said, scousers have a victim complex 😜
Its not that people don't appreciate the situation, the problem is that trust between the public & government is degraded
Everyone was surprised how well people adhered to lockdown 1st time round, at least then everyone was in the same boat, regional lockdowns now are going to be harder to enforce
Just look at Crikeys Crossword rage!
TiRed, congratulations, and thanks for your posts as many others have already written. Good science presented in an understandable way has really helped in a world gone TITSUP.
🙂
One day, one perfect day, I'll get it all.
I may have lots of time on nights in ITU...
edit; could that be
3)Vertical mammaries (6)?
Sorry Crikey. Total Inability To Support Usual Performance.😬
😄
I'm like a
4) Sausage dog in deep water (7,3,2,2,5)
RE the pub closure:
I've shut 2 drinking establishments in the last week, on both occasions the issues were found the day before (and yes they were bad with one being given an improvement notice a couple of weeks prior) the difference being I told the establishments that I would be there the next day and they would be shut so they knew what was coming.
So, Tired, while you have been arseing about with crossword puzzles, Trump has only gone and invented a vaccine !!
but is a feature of the place which cannot be changed without some major structural work
We have some tiny pubs here that have no way of enabling social distancing… so they are closed… will they be getting help from the government?!? Will they arse. The government’s policies on pubs are worse while they keep them open… because the likes of Wetherspoons will survive, and small pubs that can’t adapt will be crushed. I fear what will be left of the great British pub by next spring… whether they face another period of closures or not. I bloody love pubs… but I’m staying away from them.
Am I being a dumbass in not understanding how this gets to be a Northern issue? Why so many cases in a chunk of the country versus the south east eg?
We were behind with the first peak, and national restrictions lifted too early for up here.
[ an opinion/supposition, not a fact ]
It's difficult.
I stay away from any kind of crowded place; ironically the most interaction I have with people is at work in a hospital and the closest contact (other than Mrs Crikey!) I've had for 7 months is in full PPE when those nursey ladies feel the need to give me a hug.
I've had numerous conversations with people in the pub trade and the overwhelming feeling is of a creeping despondency, a realisation that they are living on borrowed time because they are an obvious and publicity friendly target.
My limited understanding of the situation is that small pubs are probably not likely to be major sources of cross infection, yet they are acutely sensitive to shutdown.
Although I share the feeling that we are governed by chimps, I also appreciate that the situation is such that, here, now, I would struggle to balance an economy and the health of the population in any way that would be supported by everyone.
I dunno. This is a novel disease and the times they are a changin'.
Am I being a dumbass in not understanding how this gets to be a Northern issue? Why so many cases in a chunk of the country versus the south east eg?
A lot has to do with universities
Clusters are centred around university halls, not sure why London, Oxford Cambridge don't have higher numbers in there's, better online teaching, London certainly doesn't have the same massive blocks of student accommodation you find in other places
There's also a link between poverty & cases, the debt map of the UK overlaps pretty well with current cases rises
Means multi generational housing more likely, also less able to wfh & less savings, means they have to go back to work
We were behind with the first peak, and national restrictions lifted too early for up here.
So was the South West.
Low income is the big wheel in the Midlands and Northern centres I think in conjunction with population density and multi generational occupancy.
The students bit I get. Testing would show infection rates for their population but you’d have thought they would be less likely to be admitted to hospital.
And deprivation I can understand too, however, the overall infection from hospitality appears to be a small slice of the pie, all things considered, so what’s the point in locking it down? Unless it’s where the students go to infect the vulnerable people? And only up north - are there that many more condensed student population Midlands and up vs below?
It would be very interesting to see some stats where the students attending the northern universities are from. It's unlikely they are all local or from within a short distance
Can I interrupt with a quick question guys?
Are there any estimates, nationwide or regional, on actual* infection rates per day rather than confirmed ones?
Cheers guys.
*Obviously estimated as said.
Latest announcement about what to expect tomorrow
https://twitter.com/borisjohnson_mp/status/1315382649985421313?s=21
It’s difficult to do satire at the moment as that’s more than likely bang on
Are there any estimates, nationwide or regional, on actual* infection rates per day rather than confirmed ones?
Cheers guys.
The place to go is either the ONS or the Imperial REACT studies. These are randomised prospective trials that swab thousands of the general public with the help of Mori polling. Then they test the swabs and estimate proportion positive per sampling cycle. Lastly they adjust these rates to local level based on the population breakdown. They are pretty consistent regarding rates of infection. But obviously have a bit of a lag due to the operational aspects.
I posted an analysis of the REACT data on Friday.
Thanks TiRed, I'll go and look at your Friday post, too.
I had a chat with my Mum last night - she's 73 and based in Farnham (nr Guildford).
But we had to have a conversation about: what the rules say, vs what SHE should be doing.
She's given up completely on listening to what the government says, and is instead using her own understanding (and mine) of transmission risk to assess situations on a day to day basis.
The hardest thing seems to be about managing her friends/relatives who want to come and visit - because there's no lockdown (yet), she doesn't want to be "funny about it" if people want to come and visit. I feel like this is the biggest risk to her - somebody will want to pop in and say hello, and she won't tell them no, even though that's what she wants to do.
Sorry - I don't know what my point is here - it just feels like collective and individual complacency are sleepwalking the UK into another crisis
Guardian today:
'It is expected that servicemen and women would be asked to help local councils implement their own tracing schemes to test, identify and locate people who may have the virus.'
It seems they're talking about parallel t and t schemes which don't get combined into the same Excel spreadsheet but it makes it look like you're doing something. The Aussies have had a tiered system throughout and people are clear about its exigencies. The UK government with all its mixed messages, hypocrisy, failures and U-turns has actually given up on t and t and is 'sharing out the responsibility' to councils to share out the blame. An apparently dysfunctional NHS cries out for more privatisation.
On a personal level, we've had a bereavement and my SiLs had a meeting with a funeral director, who himself turned out to be positive. Nobody tracked or traced them and I can only imagine such situations are replicated throughout the country. You just can't believe their numbers, or anything they say actually.
No social distancing at Alton Towers water park yesterday. I don't know whether it was the not having to wear masks that made people drop their guard.
No social distancing at Alton Towers water park yesterday.
Assuming you don’t work there, can I ask why you thought that in the current circumstances it was a good idea to go?
Sure that government has a lot to answer for, but the populous of this thread is not the only set of individuals in the UK that have the wherewithal to act appropriately. We can’t trust the immature teenagers and students not to crowd the bars and get pissed, but surely anyone older than 30 should be making the right decisions here.
Out riding yesterday in a group of 5 and came across some 24 ramblers walking in one group, all of an age where they would be classed as vulnerable, so it may not all be the youngsters fault.
Came across a hunting party - 50-60 strong on Wednesday last week. Whilst they did all look the same, I'm fairly certain they weren't all from the same family...
Apparently 'rambling' can be exempt from the rule of hands face space as 'organised sport', provided it is one of those events properly led by an angry buffer with a map around his neck.
But yes, it's ridiculous, isn't it?
EDIT: Hunting is also exempt. Although I'm sure there has to be a limit to how many toffs you can cram into a butt.
Out riding yesterday in a group of 5 and came across some 24 ramblers walking in one group, all of an age where they would be classed as vulnerable, so it may not all be the youngsters fault.
Allowed up to 30, outside, with proper covid certification.
The RA got their shit sorted and got got organised.
It seems the new government plan to get "the people" blamed for spreading covid, rather than government mishandling is working.
As is the Trump-esque "blame the Mayors" distraction. He did it with he State Governors, they will do it to the local Mayors.
Meanwhile, Hancocks (allegedly) still getting pissed on the public purse in the evenings.
Came across a hunting party – 50-60 strong on Wednesday last week. Whilst they did all look the same, I’m fairly certain they weren’t all from the same family…
Aren't they all inbred 😉
It is breaking the rules, but outdoor transmission is v low, so it isn't terrible (other than being a bloodsport that has no place in society imho) unless your dogging most outside stuff is a lot safer than indoor.
Surely the localised model is Germany, it seems to have worked very well there, tho their federal system is well established
PHE was created a few years ago to do the opposite and centralise power away from LAs
Our t&t system is also entirely centralised Serco have an ex Tory MP as CEO so they are obviously going to get the contracts for this despite their record of fraud and failure.
My worry is that the control freakery at the centre of government won't be able to relinquish power enough to let local people from local towns act independently
Announcement at 6pm tonight, Boris, Sunak and Whitty. Oliver Downing announcing on the news the aim is to get it back under control by Christmas, even if that means hard measures now.
We'll see.
Assuming you don’t work there, can I ask why you thought that in the current circumstances it was a good idea to go?
While I agree with the sentiment and wouldn't have done such a trip myself, places like Alton Towers, and pubs for that matter, are open on the basis that numbers will be limited by space, and social distancing will be in place.
Idiots that can't follow the rules should be asked to leave, and if the venue can't control it's customers it should be closed - and in those circumstances, I'd question how much tax payers support it deserves.
Just my opinion. While we can blame the government for all the crap handling, businesses and individuals have a responsibility to do their bit. That's not passing the buck, that's how any society works.
Listening to Steve Rotheram just interviewed this morning, adding to what Andy Burnham said last week, it sounds like the Northern Mayors and council leaders know what's coming - the transfer of blame onto them for the government's incompetence. More responsibilities with no financial package to support them.
But their language is hardening and they really are genuinely angry. With very good reason. He readily made the comparison with the mid 80's with regard to the relationship between central government and the northern regions. The phrase he used was 'we refuse to just roll over' and have things imposed on them.
My worry now is that Cummings thrives on confrontation, creating enemies to divide people, and it would suit this government to start a conflict at the moment as a distraction from a rising infection rate and its own obvious failures. I truly believe they are cynical enough to do that
It's all part of the "managed decline" master plan.
Even my mum- who has COPD and heart failure- is starting to fall into the "Bleh another lockdown what's the point" camp. Just from sheer fatigue and mixed messaging and frustration and depression with the whole mess. And that's despite being in Scotland, if we were down south I imagine she'd be hosting covid parties for all of her mates that aren't dead yet. She's pretty much at the point where anything that's simple and unequivocal and has similar messaging across the UK gets her attention, but that's not much and it's mostly very basic. And she's no idiot, not by a long way, it's just that she's out of endurance.
(she also may possibly have similtaneously hit the age where you can't resist becoming grumpy and right wing, to be fair)
Ironically, TiRed's honororororisation is the only thing that's made a dent in her lately, now "all that stuff you get off the internet" is officially Wisdom. Even if I didn't get it off TiRed 🙂
Oliver Downing announcing on the news the aim is to get it back under control by Christmas, even if that means hard measures now.
Does that mean we get a Brexshit party to celebrate on the 1st?
'Brexit cures COVID' would make a catchy three-word slogan. Someone should paint that down the side of a bus
I can't think of a worse time to relax any restrictions, the run up to Christmas sounds like a ready made disaster
My worry now is that Cummings thrives on confrontation, creating enemies to divide people, and it would suit this government to start a conflict at the moment as a distraction from a rising infection rate and its own obvious failures. I truly believe they are cynical enough to do that
Bring it on - the North needs reminding who their enemies are - Tories not Europeans.
