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We don’t need to vaccinate all ages, we just need to vaccinate enough people to inhibit transmission sufficiently. It is possible that threshold will be reached by current vaccination efforts in adults, perhaps 15-18 year olds will need to be included. The population will be kept above this threshold as immunity wanes by booster jabs as required.
They say it's 85% now thanks to Delta, that's 85% of the whole population. 20% or so of our population is under 18, to reach 85%, even with 100% uptake we'll need to vaccinate some children.
But, really it's antibodies, not vaccines per-se, the plan is that 85% of the population to have antibodies, those who aren't vaccinated are actually going to have to get covid before it's a less lethal virus. As above, we're going to let "nature take it course" at least when enough people are vaccinated to avoid too many people ending up in Hospital that the NHS can't cope. We're all going to have to take our turn.
They say it’s 85% now thanks to Delta,
Is it really that high now? I thought the r0 of the delta was about 7, whereas measles is 12-18.
Still achievable, one way or another, though. We need to start naming roads after some of the people who are delivering this vaccine programme.
It'll be interesting to see the risk of COVID in under 18s versus the risk of vaccination. I suspect both numbers will be very low and therefore very hard to measure.
“massive lockdown and sealed borders,
withoutwith a vaccination plan”
Appears to be the right answer. The old "choose any 2 from 3" doesn't cut it.
And I'm sorry, but a 40% difference in death rate doesn't fall into my definition of "only"! That's a lot of people still alive.
Strange feeling today. The mask wearing outside has now been dropped here so the kids in the playground mostly had visible faces. At the pool the indoor pool is now open as well as the outdoor one, it seemed odd seeing lots of unmasked people indoors. No more curfew either from the end of the week.
The easing is justified by:
https://dashboard.covid19.data.gouv.fr/vue-d-ensemble?location=FRA
Fingers crossed. If you click back you'll see the vaccination is running out of steam. I don't know if any vaccinated people have ended up in hospital in Les Landes, Del.
That’s a lot of people still alive.
55,000 by my calc.
@theotherjonv - I'm not sure how you got your maths knickers in a twist. 40% less than the UK's 128k deaths is close enough to the "73k deaths" we would have expected if we had the same Covid mortality rate as Germany.
vaccinating a sufficient proportion of the rest of the population will offer the unvaccinated significant protection
Again, I'm sure the answer is "the modelling says so", but I find it hard to believe the modelling says that I, who works in a sparsely occupied office (and have done so almost the entire time), and goes to the pub once a week if I'm lucky, can "protect" someone who spends at least 5 days a week in close physical proximity with hundreds of other people. But what do I know. Please note - in no way am I arguing for children to be vaccinated. I am exploring the reasoning why I need to be vaccinated and others, apparently, do not.
It's not my maths knickers thanks, I think I managed to work that out.
It's the fact that you seem to be implying that by doing it properly (or rather, better than we did, more like Germany did) to paraphrase your quote 'only 40% less people' would have died.
That's 55,000 people.
'Only' 55,000
Again, I’m sure the answer is “the modelling says so”, but I find it hard to believe the modelling says that I, who works in a sparsely occupied office (and have done so almost the entire time), and goes to the pub once a week if I’m lucky, can “protect” someone who spends at least 5 days a week in close physical proximity with hundreds of other people.
It's hard to apply population-based science to individuals, but as a hypothetical, it's perfectly possible for you to infect the parent of a schoolchild in the pub. That parent infects their child, then obviously the child passes it around in their classroom. The first case in a school has to come from somewhere, perhaps via their parents, perhaps from an adult on their bus, perhaps from a teacher. Cutting off the potential routes of infection makes that infection, and any subsequent transmission, less likely.
If you were a hermit living in a cave on a Hebridean island I'd probably give you a pass, but most of us have the potential to pass the virus to someone, some more than others. That someone may end up being the last link in the chain, or the first in a new one.
Again, I’m sure the answer is “the modelling says so”, but I find it hard to believe the modelling says that I, who works in a sparsely occupied office (and have done so almost the entire time), and goes to the pub once a week if I’m lucky, can “protect” someone who spends at least 5 days a week in close physical proximity with hundreds of other people. But what do I know. Please note – in no way am I arguing for children to be vaccinated. I am exploring the reasoning why I need to be vaccinated and others, apparently, do not.
I get the sense you've chosen not to have a vaccine and are wrestling with the morality of that?
Honestly, I wouldn't worry about it. Again, its only my opinion, and I know we're both in Wales and will likely not see a 'freedom' day any time soon, but the inevitable outcome of all of the Nations plans is that, eventually everyone is going to be exposed to CV, there is no Political or Public will to go the extra mile to try to eradicate CV19 in any other way if it was even possible. Most of my friends have chosen to be vaccinated, 1 hasn't I don't judge him for it, he knows the risks and accepts them, they're not risks I was prepared to take, or rather I saw the risk of being vaccinated to be lower than being vaccinated.
Appears to be the right answer. The old “choose any 2 from 3” doesn’t cut it.
Well, the few countries that have maintained their sealed borders and strict restrictions don't seem in any hurry to vaccinate their population, so we will have to see how that works out.
And I’m sorry, but a 40% difference in death rate doesn’t fall into my definition of “only”! That’s a lot of people still alive.
40%, and diminishing (as Germany continues to have a low but present number of Covid deaths, while the UK now has basically none). That number is also not picked at random from the population, but extremely heavily biased to old people. It's sad, but I still would not call that a significant win for whatever Germany did "better" than us with lockdowns. They also "allowed" the second peak to be much larger than the first. Given that they got their first lockdown all good (hard and early, etc etc), they knew what would apparently work, yet allowed the second peak of Covid deaths to be as proportionally big (per capita) as ours.
Another argument for doing it properly is that the economic and social damage is limited. If you look at the school days and business days lost Germany has done pretty well. In terms of school days France has done really well but not so well economically.
I get the sense you’ve chosen not to have a vaccine and are wrestling with the morality of that?
I have no issue with the morality of it. My point here is that - if it is essential that I get the vaccine for the good of others (as many here, and in real life, absolutely insist is true), then there are others (ie, kids) to whom that applies in an enormously greater way.
Personally - I don't think that me being vaccinated will do anyone else much good (as everyone has already agreed, there isn't much data to back that up), and as I am not concerned about catching Covid, I see no reason to get vaccinated. If you're concerned about the effects of catching Covid - get vaccinated. If not - then don't.
1 hasn’t I don’t judge him for it, he knows the risks and accepts them.
That's all I ask for. Appreciate the honesty.
Bit like Brexit innit; if you voted for it you own consequences. If you don't get vaccinated you own the consequences of never reaching herd immunity through vaccination.
For adults offered Pfizer or Moderna all the stats point to vaccination being in their personal interest. For kids it'll take a few more weeks to be sure but things are looking good.
The only problem is that all the "only me"'s add up on the population level.(Not judging, but its all up for discussion).
Nothing is guaranteed, but its about risk reduction. My thinking goes: My parents/in laws are vulnerable but vaccinated. Vaccines are not 100% guarantees. If I have the vaccine I am less likely to catch/spread Covid to them.
I can therefore reduce the chance of my mum dying by getting vaccinated.
Another argument for doing it properly is that the economic and social damage is limited.
It will probably be forever unknowable what would have happened if we had done basically nothing. In my opinion, the NHS was significantly overwhelmed during 2020 (as it was essentially not possible to get healthcare, and at least in Wales, that situation persists, and the healthcare backlog will haunt us for many years), so we didn't even stop that from happening. As the UK enjoyed a world-leading Covid death rate in those early days, even among 3rd world countries and countries that also did basically nothing, I find it hard to believe that it could have been significantly worse here.
That NHS argument is a tough one to make, so I'll just outline it. What we know is the number of people who died with Covid while in hospital. I also happen to know that, in many cases, a "clinical picture of Covid infection" was enough for someone who died of a viral-type disease to be certified as a Covid death. What we don't know here is how many of those were other respiratory viruses, or how many caught Covid after being admitted (which I understand was also quite high). We do know that there were a significant number of age-related co-morbidities. It's also true that the NHS treated fewer patients than average in 2020, for a variety of reasons: ward capacity was reduced for Covid safety, treating a patient was much more time-consuming due to Covid safety procedures, and almost all other healthcare was stopped.
Based on that, my argument goes that the NHS essentially hamstrung itself with mostly pointless "safety precautions" that did little to actually help anyone, hampered patient care, and were a major cause of the distress it was apparently in.
I'm sure this is controversial, but it's ok, I'm a nobody and this is just my opinion.
It's taken about a year to get the vulnerable vaccinated, and I wonder just how many vaccinated people there are who were not exposed to Covid and would have died (or suffered greatly) if they had caught it.
Just some thoughts.
I do see your view twrch; as an individual it may not make much sense/difference but I do believe in the overall as well and all doing our bit. I think you're wrong but I also understand / respect your right to be wrong 😉
I agree we need immunity (whatever extent that means) in the younger generation as well before this is really close to being done, and probably more than we need you individually to roll your sleeve up. I said before that i don't think that we can treat the youngers as their own population as they are randomly dispersed around the population, and then pulled together on a near daily basis. Sounds an ideal way to seed whatever's going round as widely as possible (any parent with new school age kids will know the three years of perpetual colds being brought home and passed on!)
On the numbers - Germany rate corrected for population is equivalent to about 65/day rolling average and is on the decline. It's 8x ours for sure (8) but even if it stayed at that level and didn't decline further, it will take nearly 3 years give or take before they 'catch up' (57 difference eating into our lead of 55,000 = 965 days).
If you don’t get vaccinated you own the consequences of never reaching herd immunity through vaccination.
No, but I may help herd immunity by infection, by bravely accepting the (relatively tiny) risk of me having a bad time with Covid.
Also - herd immunity only works if a large percentage are immune to a disease. As we have discussed at length already, it's not known how much sterilising immunity the vaccines actually give you, especially to groups of people already significantly less at risk of symptomatic Covid, and thus their contribution to a form of "vaccinated herd immunity" is not known.
I agree we need immunity (whatever extent that means) in the younger generation as well before this is really close to being done, and probably more than we need you individually to roll your sleeve up.
That makes sense, as a point of view. As I've already said, I personally don't think that those who are not at risk of having a bad time with Covid should be cajoled into getting vaccinated, based on currently very shaky data about onward transmission. Appreciate the discussion though.
It will probably be forever unknowable what would have happened if we had done basically nothing.
Absolutely, there is no 'control' that is normalised for culture, demographics, seasons/weather, etc., we can only compare to similar and see what the numbers tell us from that. To an extent guesswork, but educated guesswork.
We could have done better. Other similars did.
by bravely accepting the (relatively tiny) risk of me having a bad time with Covid.
I appreciate your honesty even if I don't agree with you.
At one point they were talking about 1 in 10 infected getting long covid for 3 plus months - that research may have changed. Certainly I know a few people who have had Covid and have taken at least 3 months to get back to anywhere near their normal level of fitness. Their experience made me think that the tiny risk wasn't that tiny and I rushed to get jabbed as soon as it was offered.
That’s 55,000 people.
55k people, average age over the average life expectancy. Call me hard-hearted, but that is not a terrible tragedy. I would be interested to see if the NHS ever used QALYS (quality-adjusted years of life) as a published metric for the various Covid stats. After all, it's the metric they use for deciding all forms of treatment.
At one point they were talking about 1 in 10 infected getting long covid for 3 plus months
Honestly - I've heard so much about the Long Covid, but I haven't even heard of anyone getting it (apart from a few cases in the newspaper). That makes it, in my personal experience, more rare than catching Covid (I personally know 3 people that have had noticable Covid infections) or dying of it (I don't personally know anyone, and only circumstantially know of one or two). I do also think that the strain that was circulating up till about April 2020 was much worse than the later strains, as all the cases of bad Long Covid seem to have an infection date of around that time.
To provide a counter example - one of my parents has been off work for 6 weeks and counting after a bad reaction to the vaccine. There's even a thread on here about bad reactions to the vaccines. I'm a little confused why Long Covid is so terrible, but Vaccine Fatigue (or whatever it's called) can be shrugged off.
much more time-consuming due to Covid safety procedures
The main problem with Covid patients is the length of their stay before discharge or death. That's why the number of hospital patients treated in France dropped. Covid patients were both numerous and tied up resourses for long periods resulting in the cancellation of a whole series of treatments that would have only taken a bed for a short period or not at all - but the operations couldn't be done because an ITU bed needed to be availaible as a safety measure if things didn't go to plan.
So reducing the number of Covid patients has had and still has a disproportinate impact on healthcare available.
Edit: I don't work but I'd have been off work for about two weeks with the first AZ jab and a day with the second. A small price I'm happy to pay. Madame goes for her second tomorrow so we've nothing planned for the weekend.
The main problem with Covid patients is the length of their stay before discharge or death.
Once we figured out that about the best treatment was bed rest and low-flow oxygen, I don't know why they just didn't discharge everyone with a bottle of oxygen. From a national healthcare point of view, it's a decent argument that it would have resulted in more people getting treated (for whatever they needed).
Duty of care, which means that even if you refuse a vaccine they'll still treat you.
Absolutely, there is no ‘control’ that is normalised for culture, demographics, seasons/weather, etc.,
There is, of course, the dreaded Sweden. And Brasil. Even India reports about 1/10th (last time I looked) the Covid death rate of the UK (yes, I understand what "reports" means).
This is why my opening gambit in this thread was about the effectiveness of lockdowns - it's not clear that a practical implementation of a lockdown (as in, short of complete house arrest for all) has been beneficial overall. The reported Covid deathrates show little relation to what each country has actaully done, except for the few that have maintained sealed borders and strict lockdowns (and as we all agree, the story for those countries is far from over, especially as they do not seem keen to vaccinate their populations at any great rate).
I'm fully aware that my point of view makes me a "moron anti-vaxx FB idiot", which several people in this thread confirmed, but I wanted to poke the STW Covid hive-mind. Thanks to those who gave me an honest and open intellectual discussion.
Duty of care, which means that even if you refuse a vaccine they’ll still treat you.
Same way they treat drunk and aggressive people in A+E. I wonder how many years of life would have been saved, if drunk idiots hadn't taken up so many NHS resources?
Honestly – I’ve heard so much about the Long Covid, but I haven’t even heard of anyone getting it (apart from a few cases in the newspaper). That makes it, in my personal experience, more rare than catching Covid (I personally know 3 people that have had noticable Covid infections) or dying of it (I don’t personally know anyone, and only circumstantially know of one or two).
https://singletrackworld.com/forum/topic/long-covid/
https://singletrackworld.com/forum/topic/have-any-of-us-actually-caught-the-coronavirus-yet-then/
TiRed, one of the more scientifically-minded contributors on here, has a particular tale to tell.
heads up anybody within reach of Bacup, Rossendale, and would like to bring forward their jab dates or get the first one quickly.
There is a massive walk in centre temporarily opened near to Lee Quarry parking, futures park. Operating on a walk in basis.
I went earlier and was the one visitor at the time, huge set up with plenty of stations but they said despite local and on line advertising they are getting very little uptake.
I was in and out within 5 minutes and now double jabbed 5 weeks ahead of my original schedule.
Or even mountain bikers who throw themselves down the trail. My point was your suggestion of sending people home with oxygen was no more acceptable than sending a crashed mountain biker with a head injury home. If they're bad enough to need oxgen they need monitoring.
The first lockdown was highly beneficial in France. It reduced cases to a level that allowed a pretty much normal Summer. If cases had been allowed to rise on the trend pre-lockdown hospitals whould have had queues of ambulances outside and severe emergency restrictive measures needed rather than the short managed confinement we had.
@martinhutch - pretty much exactly as I said. People that caught Covid early in 2020 had a much higher chance of viral fatigue-like symptoms, and there hasn't been much sign of it since. The thread itself died months ago.
My point was your suggestion of sending people home with oxygen was no more acceptable than sending a crashed mountain biker with a head injury home. If they’re bad enough to need oxgen they need monitoring.
I see. Well, to re-iterate what I said, I think an argument could be made that overall, it would have resulted in a greater amount of healthcare being adminstered to the population. After all, one result of all of this is a huge backlog of regular healthcare that I am sure will be a problem for years to come. At least in Wales, the waiting list has increased by 20% in one year, and with a huge increase in the number of people waiting for more than 36 weeks.
Using your analogy - if somehow the hospitals were full of mountain bikers with head injuries, with more on the doorstep, I don't see why they wouldn't send the least severe cases home, so that they could treat new patients.
After all, "it's a pandemic" has been used to justify all sorts, including refusing almost all forms of regular healthcare, so I don't see why this is exempt.
I don’t think that me being vaccinated will do anyone else much good (as everyone has already agreed, there isn’t much data to back that up)
Evidence for reduction in transmission from vaccination comes from secondary attack rates for cases. PHE have analysed that rate for both alpha and delta variants. The most recent report Table 1 lists about a halving, but this has caveats (it's records and pcr test based, so if you have an asymptomatic secondary case, it won't show on a linked report by residence). The "low confidence" is really based on the statistical sample size and the caveat. It would be extraordinary to think that reducing viral load by the presence of pre-existing antibodies in a vaccinated person who is infected, would not have an effect on transmission.
Demonstrating an effect at the population level is going to be challenging given the near-uniform coverage, changing contact restriction policies and emergent strains.
I don’t see why they wouldn’t send the least severe cases home,
Triage then with all the risks that implies.
Thing is, all that can hoepfully be avoided if enough people get vaccinated.
If you don’t get vaccinated you own the consequences of never reaching herd immunity through vaccination.
Perhaps TIred or someone more scientifically minded will correct me, but IMHO this isn't possible, it cannot be done with the current vaccines / circumstances
If, they do in fact reduce the chances of passing it on by 60% then Delta is more contagious amongst vaccinated people then Alpha (Kent) was amongst unvaccinated people and way more contagious than the original strain which kicked this all off last March.
Maybe, if we waited until much later in the year, when we've offered the vaccine to everyone in the UK over 16, or maybe even 12 year olds and IF we manage to get 85% of the total population fully vaccinated before another, protentional even more contagious strain arrives then we could remove all restrictions and maintain an R rate of sub 1, but there's not enough will, Public or Political to do that, and given the way strains come about, it might be outpaced by the virus.
As below, even waiting until July, there will be a 3rd wave, that hopefully results in far less deaths, but it's still likely to lead to 1200 new hospitalisations a day through August.
Trwch would be helping keep that low if they decide to be jabbed, but it's not like those jabs will go to waste otherwise, someone else will have them and they will keep the number low. Twrch has decided to accept the risk of being one of those 1200 a day hospitalisation and it's there choice, and from their personal circumstances thinks they are low risk to others.
I have been as evangelical as anyone to get people to get jabbed, my Wife works in a vaccine centre, but it's not right or fair to brow beat, or try to shame people into doing it. In the likely event Twrch is exposed to Covid (if they haven't been already) they will join the ranks of the people with antibodies.
I said 60-90%, not 60%. Les Landes results for vaccinated infected are for virus measuarable by a PCR test. How that translates into capacity for transmission is not known yet.
We need results from contact racing for the Delta variant to see the proportion of vaccinated people in the the chains of contamination. It's too soon to say yet.
The modelling shows that, even with almost 100% of the vulnerable vaccinated, there could be another peak worse than any other. Ok - who am I to argue against that. Sorry, I've had it with "modelling shows it would be even worse!".
It would be extraordinary to think that reducing viral load by the presence of pre-existing antibodies in a vaccinated person who is infected, would not have an effect on transmission.
But that's the point - how does it compare to someone already at significantly less risk of symptomatic Covid? I didn't have time to do more than skim the article you linked, but couldn't see the "halving" figure. I did see the usual about "it would appear that transmission is decreasing" - I'll give it a more thorough read.
Anyway, it's been interesting, and civil, and for that I thank you all. Other duties call!
Sorry, I’ve had it with “modelling shows it would be even worse!”
Stop asking so many questions that you don't want to hear possible answers to then.
viral fatigue-like symptoms, and there hasn’t been much sign of it since
👀
there hasn’t been much sign of it since.
I can name 5-6 members of our cycling club that caught it in the last winter wave and were still struggling in April/May time.
This isn't "need to be in hospital" struggling. This is exhausted after a trip to the supermarket, falling asleep mid afternoon for a couple of hours most days, not being able to keep up on the 20 mile/10mph average beginners ride struggling. These are normal people struggling to work, live their normal lives, let alone ride at their usual level, for a good chunk of the year so far.
Sod that, I'll try the vaccine
Bolton update.
Deaths remain low - no longer the concern due to vaccination.
However, the number of people on ventilators continues to rise as admissions increase once again.
Stop asking so many questions that you don’t want to hear possible answers to then.
I've had a very enjoyable and respectful discussion that has involved many questions and answers, most of which did not end with "modelling shows that...". Some of them ended with things like "in my opinion, the risks of x outweigh the benefits of y", or "I think that any life saved is worth anything". However, if the answer is "modelling shows we need to delay re-opening by a few weeks, despite the vulnerable having been vaccinated for many weeks (and months, in some cases), and a huge number of the overall population being vaccinated", then what is the point?
then what is the point?
What’s the question?
Is it “what is the benefit of modelling when trying to form a response/strategy to an unfolding pandemic caused by a highly contagious virus”? If so, we can have a go for you, with reference to the last 18 months. Or are you asking something else entirely? Or are you just stating that you don’t want to hear about the modelling, because you don’t like the range of outcomes they suggest we might be facing (or might want to act to avoid)?
Without a control, or some reference to reality, modelling can show whatever you like. It should form one input to decision-making, but right now it seems to form the only input.
Anyway. I think I'm done. I'll check back in on our new Freedom Day, in a month, where I'm sure we'll all be agreeing that it really is safest to stay restricted just a bit more, to learn a bit more about the new variant, or to give the NHS a chance, or maybe to vaccinate a few more people (or maybe, to start the booster rollout).
I'll say it again - right now, my biggest fear are the economic and social issues that I, and others like me, may spend the remaining decades of our lives paying for. Every month we extend this, is another month of economic ruin locked in.
I’ll say it again – right now, my biggest fear are the economic and social issues that I, and others like me, may spend the remaining decades of our lives paying for. Every month we extend this, is another month of economic ruin locked in.
150,000 people with an average of 10 more years life have died of this virus, that's a lot of economic damage right there.
that’s a lot of economic damage right there.
To be frank - how? I can't remember the exact figures, but last time I checked around a quarter of the people who died with Covid had dementia or Alzhimers. The only economic damage was nursing homes losing paying customers, although at the rate at which "younger old" folks are now getting healthcare issues normally reserved for the "older old", that might not be such an issue.
150,000 people, with 10 years average life left. 1.5 million years.
Working. Earning. Paying tax. Spending. Even if it is on care. Providing income and employment for others. Who spend it and pay tax.
The whole bigger picture thing.
150,000 people with an average of 10 more years life have died of this virus, that’s a lot of economic damage right there.
The average age of death in the UK is 81.
For the vast majority, these are not folk who had another 10 years of working or spending to do. Yes there are younger cohorts but that thankfully decreases in proportion.
The average age of death in the UK is 81.
For the vast majority, these are not folk who had another 10 years of working or spending to do. Yes there are younger cohorts but that thankfully decreases in proportion.
Maybe it's not as simple as you think
https://health.org.uk/news-and-comment/news/1.5-million-potential-years-of-life-lost-to-covid-19
I’ll say it again – right now, my biggest fear are the economic and social issues that I, and others like me, may spend the remaining decades of our lives paying for.
Its only money and we're some of the richest people on earth. I don't resent paying for things -what else is money for?
The average age of death in the UK is 81.
For the vast majority, these are not folk who had another 10 years of working or spending to do.
You're misunderstanding that figure - 81 isn't the age people typically die at. 'Life expectancy' figures are a number when you'd expect half the people born in a given year to have died - its a figure driven down, for instance by child mortality not old age. Statistically people who've reached the age of 80 years can expect to live for another 10 - so those people do have another 10 years of living and spending to do
If, they do in fact reduce the chances of passing it on by 60% then Delta is more contagious amongst vaccinated people then Alpha (Kent) was amongst unvaccinated people and way more contagious than the original strain which kicked this all off last March.
This is what worries me. As the virus moves to different strains that are less effective at killing people but much better at spreading through even a vaccinated population it could well lead to the whole of the NHS due to beds being tied up long-term instead of what we had in the first wave where people would be admitted, treated for a week or 3 then die, freeing up a bed for the next patient. I'm not being flippant about those deaths but it's something they have to plan for.
As below, even waiting until July, there will be a 3rd wave, that hopefully results in far less deaths, but it’s still likely to lead to 1200 new hospitalisations a day through August.
All the modelling does really point to the fact it's way too early to start fully opening up, or even that we may have gone too far. If the next peak is indeed in August/September then how the hell do we get things back under reasonable control before the winter flu season?
This is far from over.
Life expectancy at age 65 years was 18.8 years for males and 21.1 years for females, with an improvement of 6.3 weeks for both males and females in comparison with 2016 to 2018.
ONS data - so the average age of death in that cohort is around 83 to 86 years.
Now I've gone through the life expectancy tables and can't find ones relating to if you're currently 80 you have an expected 10 years to live. I'd find it strange that someone born later has a lower life expectancy than someone born earlier than them given improved health care and diets over the years.
Now back to the financial aspect, these are not in the main working age so that argument is moot and the spending side of it, instead of them spending it its passed down in inheritance (and the tax man) the cash and assets don't suddenly disappear.
yep, it's the same mis read that life expectancy in the middle ages was 30-something or whatever.
So many children died (dare I say often of diseases that we have eradicated or control by vaccination!) before reaching 5 or 10 or whatever that the average drops hugely.
Survive childhood and you mild not live to today's ages, but reach 10 and you could expect to live to 45, get to 25 and you could expect to make the 50s.
80 yo male - average is 89, 25% chance of 93 and 10% chance of 96
80yo female - 90, 94, 98 for the same chances
80 yo male – average is 89, 25% chance of 93 and 10% chance of 96
80yo female – 90, 94, 98 for the same chances
Close to the figures quoted in the article he was disagreeing with then? 😎
Now back to the financial aspect, these are not in the main working age so that argument is moot and the spending side of it, instead of them spending it its passed down in inheritance (and the tax man) the cash and assets don’t suddenly disappear.
My 82 year old dad manages to burn through his £20k a year of pensions supporting local businesses, and my inlaws are spending the proceeds of the sale of their house on care costs at about £2k a month between them.
That's pretty economically active to me, but you carry on.
Now back to the financial aspect, these are not in the main working age so that argument is moot and the spending side of it, instead of them spending it its passed down in inheritance (and the tax man) the cash and assets don’t suddenly disappear.
My 91 year old mum spends more than I do - £4,500 a month to live in a care home. The home is a not for profit and provides employment to loads of people from carers to chiropodists.
Edit: nevermind.
The thread itself died months ago.
I think it's kind of served it's purpose. Back in the days of death or wellness because it's only a bit of flu having Long Covid was a bit WTF is going on. More people have had Covid now so there's less need to give an idea of actually like or try to find out if your experience is the same as everyone else. Also the vaccine thread probably overtook it as a place to talk about experiences or share information - that being the next big Covid type event.
preferred In Utero, but whatevs.
I’m going to put Unplugged on now.
My wife is in tears over her second AZ jab. She isn’t an anti vaxxer, but is petrified of the blood clots. I’ve given up on rational arguments. She just doesn’t want it.
Can her GP authorise a different jab for second dose?
Definitely talk to the GP, they'll know what the options are. If its causing her that much anxiety, there must be a better way even if it means a delay to get a different vaccine.
Must be awful for you both
Thanks - that’s what I told her.
So, Dido Harding applies for job of NHS Excecutive. That’s reassuring….
But also, properly reassuring is some news today that we can expect a peak of cases in about 14 days which ties with TiReds admissions model up there. As much as the rise in case makes me anxious, is would appear that the case>Serious illness ratio has indeed changed a lot.
Superb Podcast..long but incredibly informative
Steve Kirsch can get a bit annoying but listen to the end.
2 of these guys are fully vaccinated.
Dr. Robert Malone is the inventor of mRNA Vaccine technology.
Mr. Steve Kirsch is a serial entrepreneur who has been researching adverse reactions to COVID vaccines.
Dr. Bret Weinstein is an evolutionary biologist.
Bret talks to Robert and Steve about the pandemic, treatment and the COVID vaccines.
https://open.spotify.com/episode/2GkYPouJqLMnMqDzMsdaeh?si=rV-3-suoRcyZr04tte2_gg&dl_branch=1
Or
Can her GP authorise a different jab for second dose?
The South koreans are going to start mixing AZ and Pfizer vaccines due to shortages of AZ. Also from the Guardian
"Several countries, including Canada and Spain, have already approved such dose-mixing – mainly due to concerns about rare blood clots linked to the AstraZeneca vaccine.
A Spanish study found that giving a dose of the Pfizer shot to people who already received the AstraZeneca vaccine is highly safe and effective, according to preliminary results."
However I would have thought that if mixing vaccines isn't yet approved in the UK then its highly unlikely a GP is going to be comfortable doing so.
It is allowed in exceptional circumstances. I just don't know how much latitude GP's have.
There are people in the UK already getting the mix. The examples I've heard of are after bad reactions to the first AZ dose, not just (understandable) worry about the second.
Oh, the podcast bikeforfreedom (whoever they are) is sharing has been very popular with the anti-vax "I found the truth on the dark web" people, I've seen it shared a lot in those circles.
I know it all comes down to the 'greater good" and we have large stocks of AZ.
If someone refuses the second AZ, will the health community really refuse an alternative available treatment, which they only didn't get due to the toss of a coin first time?
p.s. Thanks for saving me bothering with that podcast!!
If someone refuses the second AZ, will the health community really refuse an alternative available treatment, which they only didn’t get due to the toss of a coin first time?
From the point of view of Medics in the Vaccine centres, if someone arrives and refuses to have a certain jab, they'll be asked a few times, reassured etc, if it's their first jab they might, just might get a different one, but that might come down to the centre. My Wife's centre only started giving Pfizer recently and the one I went do doesn't have it, even though they changed the recommendation on storage, there are none in the building.
I can't imagine anyone at front-line level who will give a different 2nd dose than the first, no way. Until someone at national level makes that decision, it just wont happen.
I certainly don't expect it to happen in centres (I work as a vaccinator at them). It would need clinical permission from a GP. Whether that can happen yet I'm unsure. At the moment, against my advice, she wants to wait until that is possible.
My wife is in tears over her second AZ jab. She isn’t an anti vaxxer, but is petrified of the blood clots. I’ve given up on rational arguments. She just doesn’t want it.
@Dantsw13 for what it's worth, my first OXAZ jab in April left me battered (heavy legs and arms; aching lymph nodes on major joints and in clavicles; painful legs/arms/shoulders/lower back muscles; massive fatigue etc. like full on flu-symptoms) and off work, including a 4-day headache that wouldn't go with painkillers that I ended up ringing 111 about and ironically it began to subside within the hour. A very gentle 15min ride around the block felt ridiculously hard eight days after the jab, I couldn't ride at close to my pre-jab FTP until another week later.
Had my second jab on Tuesday, fatigue and body ache seemed to come on quicker than the first time. Felt really rough including a headache the following morning and called in sick, but by early evening I was starting to feel more normal. Took it very easy most of Thursday but did a 90min turbo session late afternoon, which felt far harder than z2 and in hindsight trying to tick off a Zwift route wasn't the smartest move but sometimes I need goals to ride.
The general trend is the second OxAZ jab gives less severe and shorter duration side effects. Thankfully I was part of that trend, including my partner and mum who both struggled with the first jab too. My sister felt far worse after her second Pfizer jab.
Two fairly unpleasant weeks with AZ 1, neck ache bad enough to keep me off the bike and bottle of wine head ache. I wasn't sure it was the vaccine but having had the same but milder for two days with AZ 2 I'm now confident in saying it was the vaccine. My doctor was OK with Moderna as second dose, in France this is standard practice for under 55s but I'm older. In the nd I had another AZ in the hope it wouldn't be as bad and it wasn't.
My wife is in tears over her second AZ jab. She isn’t an anti vaxxer, but is petrified of the blood clots. I’ve given up on rational arguments. She just doesn’t want it.
There was report here that the risk of blood clots with AZ 2 is 10 times lower than with AZ 1 so in line with Moderna or Pfizer.
bad enough to keep me off the bike and bottle of wine head ache
What we really want to know, is did the effects of the jabs keep you off the wine?
risk of blood clots with AZ 2 is 10 times lower than with AZ 1
That sound reassuring Ed... can you find a link?
Didn't touch a drop, I felt too fragile, Kelvin.
Le vaccin d’AstraZeneca a mauvaise presse en raison de rares cas de thrombose survenus après une première injection. Le risque est évalué à 1 sur 60 000 pour les premières doses et à 1 sur 600 000 pour les deuxièmes doses. Cet effet secondaire grave n’avait pas été détecté lors des études cliniques.
https://www.ledevoir.com/politique/quebec/611628/vaccin-d-astrazeneca-dube-corrige-le-tir
It's not where I originally saw it so there aren't the references but the numbers are the same.
Brilliant, thanks.
In the end she came down from the shower & asked me to take her straight to the local walk-in clinic. All done.
Sadly the lack of trust in the government pandemic handling means people are wary of the motives for keeping giving the 40+ AZ whilst other countries stop.
Hopefully she doesn’t die as she will haunt me forever, poking my chest with blame!!