Forum menu
If anyone is wondering how effective the vaccine is. In Wales where we’re a little ahead of England on vaccine roll out, with broadly the same restrictions, we’ve got the lowest number of people being treated for Covid since the start of the pandemic.
Also the death rate, which seemed to take an age to fall, is pretty much zero.
You never know, it might actually prove to be wise to lift final restrictions in 4 weeks
I've given up trying to second guess all this. I've had my first jab, I'll bring my second forward when I hit 8 weeks. I've lost a stone and a half since Christmas, Covid was what spurred me into action, I'll continue being careful, wash my hands and wear a mask if required. Beyond that, whatever, the messaging is all so screwed up no one has any idea.
Meanwhile thousands die every month from all sorts of needless causes which we could do something about but chose not to.
And obviously this variant caused a lot of mortality in India and elsewhere with ‘traditional’ features such as cough/respiratory distress/high fever.
You could caveat the India bit with the fact that air quality in any major city is so appalling that any respiratory disease would likely have serious consequences.
Two million people die from air pollution in India each year.
Meanwhile thousands die every month from all sorts of needless causes which we could do something about but chose not to.
We “do something” towards reducing deaths from just about every cause. Maybe not enough in some cases, but I can’t think of anything where we don’t do something to try and reduce deaths. Workplace safety regulations, healthily living campaigns, smoking reduction laws and schemes, speed cameras and traffic calming measures, clean water laws, road charging in cities to reduce pollution, the very NHS itself… so many areas where we have ongoing laws, restrictions and government funded measures in place to try and prevent early deaths and avoidable ill health. Many areas we could do more in, but also many areas we are increasingly doing more in all the time.
Regarding the new variant symptoms, is this related …
https://singletrackworld.com/forum/topic/the-man-flu-discussion-thread/
I caught my cold 2 months after my first jab.
Re. 2nd jab being brought forward to 8 weeks for over 40’s. There doesn’t seem to be a specific process in the NHS booking system system, but after talking to others who had done it I went ahead and cancelled my current 12 wk appt and then it showed me available slots from my 8 weeks date which I was able to book.
A Twitter thread that’s worth reading as a useful precaution against our leaders getting away with rewriting very recent history…
https://twitter.com/brucereuters/status/1404707882113904641?s=21
If anyone is wondering how effective the vaccine is. In Wales where we’re a little ahead of England on vaccine roll out, with broadly the same restrictions, we’ve got the lowest number of people being treated for Covid since the start of the pandemic.
Our district (Craven) is bordered by Pendle, West Yorkshire etc which all have high rates of the new variant. We've been waiting for it to spill over as it has done in previous waves, as there is plenty of movement between the two districts between towns such as Barnoldswick and Skipton. We've had a few cases pop up in town, but nothing substantial yet.
The only difference this time is that we have significantly higher vaccination here - something like 65% double vaccinated, perhaps as low as 18% completely unvaccinated. In Pendle, approx 45% have had both.
We'll wait and see if schools going back allows the virus to break through, but my hope is that there is a tipping point somewhere around this mark which breaks the transmission chain, even for this variant.
Well said, Simon Hoare MP.
There's a slippery slope on state controlled media, and government messaging has been a nightmare in itself, but I hope any inquiry into the pandemic looks at media messaging. Clickbait headlines have overshadowed the actual important details and made the awful government messaging even worse.
21st June was always "the earliest date" to remove restrictions, not "Freedom Day". Even BBC correspondents have struggled to get that point across on the back of the headline the editors lead the story with.
The BBC has been much too keen to report on what the papers are saying, and co-opting/spreading their "take" on the news, and allowing the papers to shape the story.
Over 18s already being jabbed here (Calderdale) and surrounding areas.
What do you think the deal will be with booster jabs?
Lots of talk of starting in autumn for the oldies, however it’s seems less likely that the under 50s will get one, although that’s not been confirmed.
I’m struggling to see how there can be a justification not to open up now until all the younger folks have had a jab, if we are subsequently going to let that population’s immunity levels lapse in 12 months. Surely you are just delaying the exact issue we are trying to avoid now, ie massive spread amongst the unvaccinated.
if we are subsequently going to let that population’s immunity levels lapse in 12 months
We don't know if that is what will happen. Which is one of the reasons the "plan" for boosters is currently still so vague. We don't even know what vaccines we'll be using for boosters (although there's already enough of the current ones ordered to have a booster shot for every single person in the UK). Lots of talk of it just being the at risk getting the current Moderna vaccine, this Autumn, to top up the AZ jabs given early on in the vaccination rollout... but that doesn't mean that is all that will happen. Adaptability, and committing to buy vaccines that might not be needed, or might not even get to production, is still the name of the game (and the government should be applauded for getting that right). We're learning about the virus all the time, and it can change, so we can't insist on "knowing" all the steps we will be taking over the next 12 months, we can only ask for the government to be prepared, and, er, "stay alert".
Just booked my two jabs and I couldn't believe how many free appointments there were, does this suggest low uptake or a sudden increased in availability?
I've just brought my 2nd forward from 8th July to this Thursday. 8th July was the earliest slot I could get when I booked initially (West yorks). Cancelled and rebooked without an issue.
The BBC has been much too keen to report on what the papers are saying, and co-opting/spreading their “take” on the news, and allowing the papers to shape the story.
Proper race to the bottom
We don’t know if that is what will happen
Agreed. I’d like to think they will be taking a cautious approach however, which would be to give everyone a booster within 12 months of the 2nd jab at latest
Got my second one on Thursday which I’m looking forward to. Apparently it takes a couple of weeks to get maximum protection so by July I will be a protected as I’ll ever be.. which is nice!
I have a bet with a friend that Parkrun would not happen in 2021. I think it's a solid £20 bet. I've already spent it.
I have a bet with a friend that Parkrun would not happen in 2021. I think it’s a solid £20 bet. I’ve already spent it.
Oops.
This from parkrun UK... https://blog.parkrun.com/uk/2021/06/14/statement-in-response-to-roadmap-announcement/
Unless landowners withdraw their permission and step 4 is delayed until 2022, you've lost that bet.
Thanks Woody 👍
you’ve lost that bet.
Well aware of that statement. A month or so ago we were on track for 21st. Now we aren't due to a variant. And they appear every few months. So, I'm sure another one will be along soon that causes enough concern to put a hold on our 'freedoms'.
Meanwhile, in the strange and twisted world of the anti-vax, anti-lockdown mob....
https://twitter.com/DavidLammy/status/1404755154004553729?s=20
I’d like to think they will be taking a cautious approach however, which would be to give everyone a booster within 12 months of the 2nd jab at latest
Another unknown is whether exposure the the virus in the wild will build ongoing immunity that way doing the booster's job for it; it seems highly likely (but not certain, yet) that the vaccines all protect to a degree against falling badly ill, but don't necessarily protect against infection itself. Which I guess is glaring obvious when you think about it, the point is that we train the immune response so it's ready for the real thing. It enables you to mount a swift effective response to infection, it doesn't wrap you in a virus impervious cocoon.
Then counter to that are mutations - so far the vaxes all seem to be somewhat effective against new variants but the chance of escape is there. But would it escape to a less harmful variant, as some histroical virologists say is the general direction of travel.....
It's a real life page turner, starring Chris Whitty as Chris Whitty.
It’s a real life page turner, starring Chris Whitty as Chris Whitty.
And Boris Johnson as Mr Silly
Starring Harry Hill as (puppeteer and voice of) Chris Whitty... I hope.
Meanwhile, in the strange and twisted world of the anti-vax, anti-lockdown mob….
The DM 'best rated' comments on this make me want to weep. This is what happens when the government and the likes of the Mail whip up a hysterical mob of morons with populist anti-science bullshit.
They're not "anti-science"... they've just found their "own" science on the internet. You should do some more research of your own. Youtube has some very interesting clips that you won't see on the mainstream media.
Re boosters.
I’m on the az trial. Had 2 doses June and September 2020. Antibodies last checked in March and will be checked in September, 12 months after 2nd dose. Expect this data will be needed to decide if boosters needed. We were told they weren’t needed in March 6 months after 2nd jab. Weekly PCR tests finish at the end of June. I’m hoping my immunity doesn’t want in the next 3 months…
You should do some more research of your own.
Had to quickly check the username. Use more smileys in future. 🙂
Re boosters.
Is it bad I hope we do need Boosters? I mean on one hand there is the continued strain on the NHS, the expenses of running the centres and, of course, the likelihood of a continued human cost of Covid...
On the other, the Mrs is bringing home an extra £400-£500 a month from 'volunteering' in one.
That's bad isn't it?
I think it's okay to hope that we all get offered a booster, and that you other half gets to help with the rollout.
So when we say boosters, is it just a boost of your immunity, or are they reworking the vaccines a bit in response to variants?
It does bother me that we don't have a roadmap to all our freedoms back. Instead, we live under the caprices of politicians and scientists.
I do understand the sentiments of the lockdown sceptics if only because, in general, freedoms surrendered to the state are not readily given back.
Jamze, current plan is to use a different but already available vaccine (Moderna for people who had AZ) but the government have things in place to use adapted and new vaccines if they are needed and become available.
i_scoff_cake, to further frustrate you, we bending at the whim of a virus, not a politician, or a scientist. The scientists are only telling us what is happening, and likely to happen, and developing tools to help us. The politicians are deciding which tools to use when. But it’s the virus calling the shots, not people, utlimately. Makes us humans seem a bit meek, doesn’t it… but we’ll ultimately have the upper hand, have patience… don’t listen the those that claim politicians and scientists get a power trip from using the tools we have to get on top of the virus. They don’t. They hate being the party poopers.
i_scoff_cake, to further frustrate you, we bending at the whim of a virus, not a politician, or a scientist.
I see your point but we do choose what price is worth paying for our freedoms. We do this every winter, for example, when influenza is more prevalent. What price is worth paying with covid? Nobody in power is formally articulating this so that we can know where we stand. I very much fear that the implication is that every death is preventable and that ultra-caution becomes normalised.
We do this every winter, for example, when influenza is more prevalent. What price is worth paying with covid?
But flu costs 10-20,000 deaths a year. Covid costs 150,000.
I share your concern about politicians taking advantage of the situation, but looking at all the scientific info on this thread and elsewhere, I think the sacrifices have been necessary.
But flu costs 10-20,000 deaths a year. Covid costs 150,000.
Sure but it's not either/or now right? We have some protection as a population with the vaccines. Surely we have to live with it at some level?
Surely we have to live with it at some level?
All we're doing now is trying to figure out how to get to the "right" level
Surely we have to live with it at some level?
I'm not sure anyone is suggesting anything else
All we’re doing now is trying to figure out how to get to the “right” level
Sure but what is the 'right' level?
More than 58% fully protected by a vaccine seems to be the current view.
But flu costs 10-20,000 deaths a year. Covid costs 150,000.
You can't compare the two right now, Influenza has been around for a long time so the population around the world has built up natural immunity over the years and then we've had vaccines for years.
Re boosters.
Expect modified vaccine coding varied spike protein - the E484K would be first on the list, since this escapes AZ protection from symptomatic disease prevention. Some are working on mRNA vaccines that deliver multiple mRNAs to simultaneously code several spike proteins. This seems like a natural extension of the technology.
Interesting that the US is now opened up. California and New York lifted most of their restrictions today. They seem to be using 70% single-shot vax as the threshold. Fingers crossed delta doesn't catch them out - although they don't use AZ.
The British government handling of the pandemic has been a complete mess in every respect other than vaccinations, with corruption on a scale that is hard to credit. From personal protective equipment for medical staff, through the app, to the test-and-trace system, contracts have been handed out to mates of government ministers using emergency legislation that bypasses all the usual qualification and tender requirements.
What a stunning somethingion of the last 16 months. Source
This is good news for Mrs_oab. As someone with no real immune system permanently, this is a development of the treatment she is on already.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-57488150
Excellent news Matt, there's been a massive amount of progress in a short time, built on earlier research.
That is good. When they said it was “expensive”, I was expecting to see a huge price tag… not £1000. Considering who it is aimed at, when they are likely to need it, and the possible benefits including freeing up off hospital resources… that doesn’t seem expensive to me. Am I missing something? And this is one of the treatments they gave Trump way back when, yes? Perhaps it was super expensive at that stage and the label has stuck.
I was expecting to see a huge price tag… not £1000.
Exactly my thoughts..
Sure it's more expensive than that off the shelf steroid which has great results but a pittance to pay to save someone's life. I wonder when it will be come readily available.
I was expecting to see a huge price tag… not £1000.
Worth it in monetary terms too - a day in ICU costs £1932
Considering who it is aimed at, when they are likely to need it, and the possible benefits including freeing up off hospital resources… that doesn’t seem expensive to me. Am I missing something?
For many it wont work as a one off.
For mrs_oab that is about her weekly treatment cost - and this is a treatment I think would be administered regularly (weekly for fortnightly) for many.
So the cost isn't ~£1000, it's many times that? Okay, that sounds like the cost benefit decision is a bit different then (I still say use it for those it benefits most, it benefits us all if we do), but the BBC piece didn't say that.
Mandatory vaccines for care workers:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57492264
Exemption for those medically unable to have it.
Consultations will begin on a similar rule for other health and care staff.
The RECOVERY news article for Regeneron explains that the trial was for people already hospitalised with COVID, so the cost is not ongoing. It also cut median hospital stay from 17 to 13 days.
I've had to call in sick today after my second jab yesterday that I was nervous about, because of how rough I was for almost three weeks after the first jab. Mentally and physicially wiped out, so far not quite as bad things got in mid April, but in no fit state for my physcial job. More annoying because I'm effectively on a 1.5 week holiday from tomorrow because of my shift rota.
Interesting Nature summary of the lab leak theory
As above, a good summary of the current thinking in the lab leak theory without all the shrill screaming found in social media
I've booked one day off work for my 2nd jab. For my first one (AZ), I did feel a bit rough but nothing horrendous. I was very much running out of energy the next two shifts though. Definitely felt deep fatigue when cycling home after working.
Mandatory vaccines for care workers:
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57492264 < Exemption for those medically unable to have it. Consultations will begin on a similar rule for other health and care staff
This could really backfire.
Its already difficult enough to recruit/retain people in this sector, without adding a divisive barrier to employment.
Forcing people rather than encouraging vaccine take up could push more people to leave the health sector, at a time when they already being pushed to the limit.
could push more people to leave the health sector
Don't disagree with that however on flip side id not be happy if my nan was being looked after in a care home by folks that hadn't been vaccinated.
could push more people to leave the health sector
Will help identify those who lack the mental capacity to be working in the health sector.
flip side id not be happy if my nan was being looked after in a care home by folks that hadn’t been vaccinated
On the flip side to that, currently 48% of staff generally leave the industry after a year of starting. Placing a barrier to that could lead to there not being enough people to look after your nan.
You may have to look after her yourself.
I can totally see the two sides of the argument for the compulsory vaccination, for and against, though I'm inclined towards compulsion for the greater good, I think.
I don't see why someone in the health sector wouldn't want to be vaccinated, to protect themselves and those they care for. The known risks are relatively tiny compared to the known risks of Covid - and the effects of long Covid are still being assessed.
Would the government have to effectively underwrite any claims for side effects? Employees left ill or dying from complications for a jab the government says they must have can't be left to the employers insurers.
I can totally see the two sides of the argument for the compulsory vaccination, for and against, though I’m inclined towards compulsion for the greater good, I think.
I don’t see why someone in the health sector wouldn’t want to be vaccinated, to protect themselves and those they care for. The known risks are relatively tiny compared to the known risks of Covid – and the effects of long Covid are still being assessed.
Personally this is such a bad idea no one should be told what injections they do or don't get - with this precedent set where does it end. (a little dramatic I know). I agree I don't see why someone wouldn't get it, but if you don't want it no one should make you. However if you don't want it people need to be testing themselves on the regs.
This is a great result for Regeneron and antibodies in general (Disclaimer - I work on another mAb). What it shows, for the first time, is that an antibody against the virus, if administered to those who have not made an immune response, will reduce mortality and hospital stay even when added to other therapies. Other pathways to damp down inflammation have also shown benefit (dexamethasone, tocilizumab and anti-GMCSF). Biology appears to work as one would predict, but one needs BIG studies for her to reveal her methods with some confidence.
@matt_outandabout I'm glad she's on the therapy. It has a relatively short half-life so needs dosing monthly (£12k/annum). The AZ antibody combo may take that out to annual. That combination failed in post-exposure prophylaxis in all-comers who were exposed, but showed that if you did not have the virus when dosed, then there was 90% protection after 7-days (like a vaccine but faster!). It bodes very well for their bigger prophylaxis study due any day now.
Your wife and others will have some very effective long-term protection options.
we know that lockdowns can control transmission
Yet to see much evidence of that working, at least in the UK lockdowns. I suppose the argument goes that we needed to lock down faster and harder, but then that primes us for an absurd over-response to every new sniffle.
Yet to see much evidence of that working
Joke?
with this precedent set where does it end
With fewer cases of Covid amongst those that need care?
I'm also wary of compulsion of any form when it comes to vaccinations, but when it comes to care and medical staffing the arguments are more difficult than for the wider population.
Yet to see much evidence of that working,
What, apart from the falling infection rates while lockdowns were active and the rising rates when they weren't?
Was there some other method of validating their effectiveness you were seeking?
Yet to see much evidence of that working,
I hope you're taking the piss with that ****ing ignorant statement?.
I hope you’re taking the piss with that **** ignorant statement?.
No, I'm not. The UK had one of the worst Covid death rates in the world during 2020. It's dropped a bit now, but it leads the developed countries. Deaths continued to rise for months after the second lockdown started in early November, peaking in February.
Sorry, I thought it was common knowledge that the UK screwed up? Germany had a much looser 2nd lockdown, and has about half the death rate.
On the upside, it looks like the vaccines are working.
This could really backfire.
Its already difficult enough to recruit/retain people in this sector, without adding a divisive barrier to employment.
I don't give a shit. If someone doesn't want to be vaccinated, don't work in the healthcare sector.
Germany had a much looser 2nd lockdown, and has about half the death rate.
Whilst the UK did not exactly cover itself in glory. Germany has a deathrate that has tracked the Euro norm very closely. We exceeded it after Christmas thanks to lack of restrains and B.1.1.7. Happy to provide the plot, but Germany does not have a lot to shout about. Sweden is at the European average (note the upper quartile range is quite close to the median at the moment). Norway is a consistent star - Be. More. Norway.
That's the point I was making - most countries have not had such a severe lockdown as ours, AND have had a lower Covid death rate. I just picked Germany as a handy example.
We exceeded it after Christmas thanks to lack of restrains
I'm not sure how you can say that, lockdown continued until the end of March (and after Germany, using that country again as an example).
I’m not sure how you can say that, lockdown continued until the end of March
You may be forgetting that restraints were relaxed in many parts of the country for Christmas and then reintroduced after it was obvious that transmission of the new variant was seeding across the UK. We also seeded other countries with the UK variant, but they reacted faster than the UK having seen what was happening here. The bump in deaths was as expected from the action over Christmas. Peak deaths normally are in the second week of the year - after people have mixed and had their Christmas flu parties. this year was no different.
Norway is a consistent star – Be. More. Norway.
From what I can tell, Norway has been in lockdown with sealed borders since last March. That's...interesting.
most countries have not had such a severe lockdown as ours, AND have had a lower Covid death rate
We have a pattern of late, long "lockdowns" here. That doesn't mean "there is no evidence that lockdowns can control transmission", it just means the timing is crucial. Act too late, and it takes longer to get things under control, during which time more people fall ill.
You may be forgetting that restraints were relaxed in many parts of the country for Christmas and then reintroduced after it was obvious that transmission of the new variant was seeding across the UK.
Given that the UK restrictions have been consistently tougher than most, even our "relaxing" for Christmas (which, AFAIK, was something like "you can meet with some other family members for one day") is still touger than the "regular" lockdown that most countries employed.
Using Germany again as my example, their second lockdown comprised:
"During the lockdown period, a maximum of ten people from at most two households would be allowed to meet; religious congregations and street protests would be subject to exemptions. Schools and kindergartens would remain open. Restaurants and cafes would only be able to sell takeaway food."
And their "Christmas relaxation" comprised:
"During the Christmas period from 24 to 26 December, social gathering rules will be relaxed to allowing one household to invite a maximum of four close family members from other households. "
On November 5th, we in the UK had:
"National restrictions for England state you must not leave or be outside of your home, but you can exercise outdoors or visit an outdoor public place."