The Coronavirus Discussion Thread.

Less deaths announced today after a 3 day BH than last weekend. Fingers crossed.

So according to the BBC, the WHO are denying any knowledge of a "Nepal variant" which is on the front page of the Daily Mail.

Beginning to think "irresponsible journalism" should be a hanging offence.

got an email from NHS booking yesterday offering an earlier date for my second vaccination (due in 2 weeks). Bizarrely it wants you to cancel your existing appointment before revealing the available dates and times ? Sorry I'm not taking the mystery box option.

Holiday situation gets worse with no new green countries any Portugal reversed to Amber.

Holiday situation gets worse with no new green countries any Portugal reversed to Amber.

You say worse, I say better. Seriously, be better just binning the idea of any of us going anywhere abroad this year now, and give financial support to the industry.

That’s interesting and maybe supports my hospitalization based on availability rather than absolute need hypothesis.

Also supporting this are the reports that there are more younger people getting hospitalised, which hopefully means they are admitting for less severe illness whereas they had no capacity for this back in January.

“Nepal variant”

WHO moved top naming by Greek letters instead with alpha being the UK variant. Not a bad idea given the pejorative nature of naming after countries. A bit like storms. Talking of storms, the lower admissions age for this variant is solid evidence of protection from morbidity by vaccination (naturally).

Still no semi-log plots on the government dashboard, but the increase in cases has been "exponential" in some areas. Certainly too many to just be a niche now.

Admissions are lagged and noisy, but number in Bolton hospital shows the trend here. Doubled in about 10 days, compared to 7 for previous strain.

Also supporting this are the reports that there are more younger people getting hospitalised, which hopefully means they are admitting for less severe illness whereas they had no capacity for this back in January.

There is danger of looking for patterns to fit your hopes and expectations. The age range profile for the delta variant wave of hospitalisations in India was lower than previous waves, and that wasn't due to an abundance of supply of health care... far from it.

That's very true, there's a fine line between posing a hypothesis and then setting out to prove or disprove it, and cherry picking data (and discarding data elsewhere).

But not sure whether you can compare 'previous waves' in India and now either, afaik India never really had a 'first wave'. Whether that's true, or due to different reporting is also a consideration.

However I have also read that the infection rate is also skewed towards the lower age group because there are so many comparatively younger people, and also further that many of that age group are of the opinion that it isn't dangerous and are not distancing or shielding in the same way as older Indians are.

TL;DR, India's quite different as a country to the UK

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/04/will-india-s-devastating-covid-19-surge-provide-data-clear-its-death-paradox

One reason is that India’s population skews young. In 2011, the most recent census year, 45% of the population was 19 years or younger, and only 4.8% were 65 or older. (In the 2010 U.S. census, 24% were 18 or under and 13% 65 or older.) And infection rates in the old were unusually low, perhaps because those who survive to old age in India are often wealthier and were better able to socially distance, the researchers argue. As a result of both factors, only 17.9% of the deaths in the study were in people 75 years of age or older, compared with 58.1% in that age bracket in the United States.

That doesn’t mean COVID-19 is any less deadly in India, notes the paper’s first author, Ramanan Laxminarayan, an economist and epidemiologist who founded the Center for Disease Dynamics, Economics & Policy in Washington, D.C., and New Delhi. His study reported that, unsurprisingly, increasing age was accompanied by a steady climb in the COVID-19 death rate, peaking at 16.6% in those 85 and older. “If you have 65% of your population in an age group where mortality rates are extremely low, then obviously, you’re going to see an overall case fatality rate that’s extremely low,” he says. He calls claims of an India paradox “nonsense.”

But not sure whether you can compare ‘previous waves’ in India and now either

Not reliably, no. That is true. Our own data from previous waves is suspect enough, I’d trust India’s even less (due to scale and a more divergent healthcare service).

India’s quite different as a country to the UK

I wasn’t comparing India with here.

Klunk
Free Member

got an email from NHS booking yesterday offering an earlier date for my second vaccination (due in 2 weeks). Bizarrely it wants you to cancel your existing appointment before revealing the available dates and times ? Sorry I’m not taking the mystery box option.

I had the same. I cancelled and was offered a bazillion different options and got an appointment the next day (this morning).

I've now had my second jab.

How long before my phone will start showing 5G reception?

Bizarrely it wants you to cancel your existing appointment before revealing the available dates and times ? Sorry I’m not taking the mystery box option.

It's so that when you go for your new earlier date it'll be at least 3 days later than your original date. And when you then phone you get to speak to someone who says yes that happens a lot, we are always getting calls about it. They helpfully then tell you that they can't rebook the original time for you and that they tell everyone who calls not to follow the instructions in the email they've sent you but to call them despite everything else they do and say telling you to do it all online if possible! Something tells me a friend of Boris got the contract for the system.

I ended up finding another location where I'm going on Saturday so in the end I will get it a week early. It's no big issue for me I can drive there but it would be a whole lot more difficult if I had to rely on public transport.

Something a little different for you to read about the iconic image of the virus... I enjoyed this.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/01/health/coronavirus-illustration-cdc.html

@TiRed - is there a way of accessing that article without the paywall?

thanks

I don't understand your point then?

The age range profile for the delta variant wave of hospitalisations in India was lower than previous waves, and that wasn’t due to an abundance of supply of health care… far from it.

I was hypothesizing that hospitalization rates have not dropped as far because where beds are available they are being used by people who would not previously have been given one, martin then said that generally more younger people are being hospitalized. Which *could* be a measure of the D-variant being more serious to young people but is also not inconsistent with my hypothesis.

You said that Indian hospitalizations were among younger people and that's not due to an abundance of healthcare. I interpreted that as a challenge to my hypothesis and it's a fair one, but the reason India is seeing more infections in younger people is due to the demographics and behaviour, rather than because the D-variant is more serious to younger people. At least that's the theory espoused in the article I linked.

What did I misinterpret, what was your comment suggesting?

what was your comment suggesting?

That this variant wave might result in younger patients as a result of something other than an abundance of healthcare. Looking at other countries without an abundance of healthcare might help to investigate that.

I’m hoping the most obvious reason is true here (vaccination of the older population). But it could be that increased transmissibility paired with relaxation of control measures (especially where younger people mix indoors) means that this variant is getting passed to younger people who are susceptible to illness but who avoided catching it in past waves. I find it unlikely that people being hospitalised now wouldn’t have also have been hospitalised if presenting with the same symptoms in previous waves (at least at the points when bed occupancy was at the levels they are now). At the peaks, when many times more people were hospitalised with Covid, yes, but not at a comparable point in the wave.

Yes, I agree. It might.

Of course another obvious answer is that the D-variant is more harmful to young people, but I personally have not as yet seen anything to suggest that; or rather that was the thinking a month ago based on numbers from India (in themselves possibly 'unreliable') - but the high number of cases and deaths in India is potentially more likely to be due to demographics and behaviours rather than an intrinsic risk of the D-variant to younger people.

rather than an intrinsic risk of the D-variant to younger people

Agreed. But again, that could be “hope” looking for patterns that support that hope. Fingers crossed.

it's more looking for evidence that disproves it, and not finding it so far.

Oh hadn't realised it was behind - must have been the work VPN. I'll see if I can find another version here...
https://www.wallpaper.com/design/design-emergency-alissa-eckert-designs-covid-19-illustration

Good medical illustrators explain science more clearly.

Bolton cases, hospital admissions and deaths plotted with latest data. (7 day moving average)

Admissions look to be dropping lately, which is promising.

So far deaths not rising, which is promising.

Just read the new Wales review rules on BBC...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-57346925

I'm tired, but that sounds like my postponed trip to stay with family in Wales for several days last month needs to be postponed again from the revised mid June plan.

We are effectively part of a three household family "bubble" in Southampton with my partner's mum and sister, who both live alone locally, albeit it's the just the odd car share we get involved in (plus we had an outdoor buffet on Easter Sunday).

If I'm right in thinking I shouldn't go in ~2 weeks time, with Indian Delta variant concerns just along the north coast around Llandudno, I'm not entirely convinced Wales will relax rules in time for my mid July annual leave either.

I’ve been taking part in the COVIDENCE study & have been offered a post immunisation blood test. When I get the results I’ll post them up here for some expert analysis.

Delta variant 60% more transmissible

Is this a worry or is the vaccine going to make it irrelevant?

Staff in our local hospital are still getting (Delta variant). Friend says 4 of her team are off with it (all young). So once again the nhs are struggling with staffing levels.

Bunnyhop - have they been vaccinated?

Just had my 2nd (AZ) jag. Hoping no side effects as I've a big ride planned for Sunday.

2nd az jab tomorrow, fingers crossed

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-57355599

Cabinet Office minister Michael Gove has been alerted by NHS Test and Trace to say he had come into contact with someone with coronavirus.

The senior Conservative had recently returned from Portugal after supporting Chelsea in the Champions League final.

Instead of self isolating for 10 days, Mr Gove will take daily Covid tests as part of a pilot scheme designed to measure testing effectiveness.

Why on earth doesn't he self isolate and take the daily tests?

Why on earth doesn’t he self isolate and take the daily tests?

Conservative party mandate no.101b: "Do as I say not as i do"

Conservative party mandate no.101b: “Do as I say not as i do”

Or take part in a trial of a new alternative system, according to that BBC article.

Or take part in a trial of a new alternative system, according to that BBC article.

Yep... will that be offered to the other people recalled from their holidays 🙂

Or is that a Gove specific alternative system.

I too had my second vaccination today. Brought forward 2 weeks .
Had very mild after effects after the first so hopefully will be ok this time .
There can’t be many over 50s left still to have their second now...?

Or is that a Gove specific alternative system.

sounds a lot like it was invented several hours ago...

I'm just watching BBC news and I'm not sure what I think about those holidaying in the Algarve that are now scrabbling to change flights and book tests to come home before Tuesday.

Of course sympathetic for the situation but also somewhat surprised by the naivety that the situation can change quickly, and/or that the Gov can react to that change. It's 'only' self isolation on return, I wonder how many will bother with it.

As to the continued increases in case numbers and also that the rate is unsurprisingly getting driven substantially by school age children and increasingly into the parent age group. I said a few days ago we were at an inflexion point and while deaths have not yet followed the case increase, I have changed my mind and I am increasingly of the opinion that time out will need to be called on the 21st.

I desperately don't want that to be the case, but can't help thinking we're going to **** it up again, aren't we?

Just got a note from my daughter's school saying that they've had cases of the Delta variant. Interestingly, it also mentioned the pilot of daily tests rather than self isolation so perhaps Gove is playing by the rules after all.

I think that pilot is for school kids not Govt ministers. Do as I say, not as I do. They never learn..,

I’m just watching BBC news and I’m not sure what I think about those holidaying in the Algarve that are now scrabbling to change flights and book tests to come home before Tuesday.

From within the trade I am sympathetic but planning for the worst should be no.1 if you really must go abroad. Their travel provider should have pointed out the pit-falls before they booked. Strangely all the people who have enquired here haven't bothered once I point out that a late change could cost them money when the foreign hotel insists on being paid because they are open and can't get a new booking for the reserved room.

I don't think many people who have been told Portugal was on the green list and are now being told they need to isolate when they get home will bother, I wouldn't. But then I wouldn't have booked a holiday abroad this year...

The most annoying thing about the pandemic is every government mistake has to be directly fixed by members of the public not by the government.

Looks like Gove is in the clear - study

Anyone who is identified as a contact by NHS Test and Trace as a contact will be offered to take part in the study. This won’t include people identified as a contact through the NHS COVID-19 app or through an informal channel. A person will be eligible to take part if they:

do not have COVID-19 symptoms
live in England
are not in full-time education
are aged 18 and over
are not under the quarantine rules for arriving in England

Bunnyhop – have they been vaccinated?

Dan - Friend just got to me. Yes her staff members have had BOTH vaccinations.

Big news.

https://twitter.com/mhragovuk/status/1400766392014721026?s=21

That's great news, secondary school pupils are the biggest group of new cases at the moment so this could break the chain of transmission

Also good for the children, it's a pain being sent home for 10 days because someone got ill in your class

I posted about this on one of the other threads.

Just over three weeks ago there was a group of cases at the primary school my wife woks at, two teachers, a TA, and 4 pupils. A teacher and TA in one class were both vaccinated and both tested positive. The second teacher, mid 20s and in my wife’s class then tested positive a week later.

My wife went in to 10 days isolation on 12th May. No symptoms, felt like a cold starting on 18th, flow tests reading negative. Then a positive flow test on the 20th followed by a positive PCR test the same day. She’s had one dose of vaccine, was due to have her second whilst she was isolating.

I tested negative on a flow test the 20th, but then a positive PCR test on the 22nd. No symptoms. Still testing negative on a flow test when I had symptoms on 25th. I’ve also had one dose of vaccine, was due my second on the 20th May.

Don’t know which variant we’ve had, the PCR test don’t give that info.

So far the vaccine hasn’t stopped us catching Covid, maybe the symptoms are less than they otherwise would have been.

That’s great news, secondary school pupils are the biggest group of new cases at the moment so this could break the chain of transmission

Mask use would help with that for this term (crazy that it has been dropped in so many areas). Vaccinations for next term. Uptake will be lower than for adults, but hopefully enough to make a difference (and hopefully priority will be given to kids with medical conditions before they go back in September).

That’s great news, secondary school pupils are the biggest group of new cases at the moment so this could break the chain of transmission

I can't see any way this will happen in the short term to break this current chain, and there's only 6 weeks till end of term and summer holidays.

So far the vaccine hasn’t stopped us catching Covid, maybe the symptoms are less than they otherwise would have been.

if it is the latter that's still a good reason to be vaccinated (not saying that's what your post is saying but there are some who would pick up on your post and possibly use it to say 'got vaccinated, still got infected = what's the point in being vaccinated then?')

Also good for the children, it’s a pain being sent home for 10 days because someone got ill in your class

Yup, daughter on day 8 of isolating, and despite a negative PCR, she's still to stay home.

6000 new cases today. Theres no way we are "opening up" on the 21st. We should probably be reverting to the last stage to protect ourselves.

6000 new cases today. Theres no way we are “opening up” on the 21st. We should probably be reverting to the last stage to protect ourselves.

Depends how effective the vaccination program is, cases were always going to increase once restrictions were lifted. Need to see if hospitalisation and deaths stay in the tolerable range - whatever that is.

Or we could learn from the Autumn, and not bread a new variant to share with our neighbours. Keep cases down, finish the vaccination programme.

What has happened to case rates in Israel? Data not dates my a&&e!!

Israel does not have the rise in cases we have, yet has a only a marginal percentage of the population vaccinated.

So something is different.

Israel didn’t have rabid tossers on the back benches howling about sensible restrictions on the unvaccinated. They really did follow the science.

Sure, and:

The first group of factors consists of long-standing characteristics of Israel which are extrinsic to health care. They include: Israel’s small size (in terms of both area and population), a relatively young population, relatively warm weather in December 2020, a centralized national system of government, and well-developed infrastructure for implementing prompt responses to large-scale national emergencies.

While many of these facilitating factors are not unique to Israel, part of what made the Israeli rollout successful was its combination of facilitating factors (as opposed to each factor being unique separately) and the synergies it created among them. Moreover, some high-income countries (including the US, the UK, and Canada) are lacking several of these facilitating factors, apparently contributing to the slower pace of the rollout in those countries.

You can't just say "hey look we're as vaccinated as Israel so we'll be fine!"

So far the vaccine hasn’t stopped us catching Covid, maybe the symptoms are less than they otherwise would have been.

Which was the message about vaccines all along and should not surprise anyone.

There can’t be many over 50s left still to have their second now…?

I'm 56 and in Scotland - it's going to be at least a couple of weeks until I and Mrs DB get our 2nd injections and therefore another 5-6 weeks before approaching full-immunity. Reducing restrictions until all JCVI Groups 1-9 have been fully inoculated and immune is bonkers when they only have 33% immunity.

before approaching full-immunity. could be as low as 60% with AZ vs Delta. 58 here and 10 days until my second AZ jab.

There can’t be many over 50s left still to have their second now…?

I'm due to have my second jab a week today. My wife will be another month or so.

That’s great news, secondary school pupils are the biggest group of new cases at the moment so this could break the chain of transmission

I can’t see any way this will happen in the short term to break this current chain, and there’s only 6 weeks till end of term and summer holidays.

MRHA have authorised based on safety and effectiveness. That isn't the same as JCVI adding the group to the vaccine rollout - could be a while depending on supplies and their inclination.

Israel didn’t have rabid tossers on the back benches howling about sensible restrictions on the unvaccinated

Plenty of ultra orthodox have pretty much ignored most of the restrictions so I think this is unlikely. They also did have a rise in cases among the young but they eased restrictions on the downslope when cases were far higher than we did.

They eased some restrictions. Had others (in place 'till this week) that we didn't even consider.

Look at the rate of increase in Scotland vs vaccination. Can’t see vaccination outrunning the increase. Maybe school terms ending will help. Firebreak lockdowns by August? Hope not but at least I can say I predicted it

Bolton updated to include Ventilators.

Giro one week, Covid the next

BBC News - Egan Bernal: Giro d'Italia winner tests positive for Covid-19
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cycling/57364184

Is the gap now only 8 weeks for groups 1-9? It’ll be 7 weeks on Tuesday since my first and haven’t heard a peep about my 2nd jab yet

Should have been in group 6, got missed off, so will be one of the very last in that group to be fully vaccinated.

When is it worth chasing them up? I’m in Scotland if that makes a difference

Got my second yesterday @ 12.5 weeks (Scotland)

Will be 9 weeks after my first jab in mid June, could have been a week sooner if I'd replied to my invite text quicker. Generally seems I'm getting my jabs a bit earlier for someone just under 50.

Rumours abound in the news then that the “next step” will go back two weeks. I’m not sure what two weeks does other than give some people more time to play with data.

Read this too. But also they are saying they will allow a 50% capacity at the football. As long as he says unlimited number at weddings he can do what the hell he likes.

I think that's a little unfair.

It buys breathing space, rather than forcing a decision (which let's face it needs to be made end of next week/early w/c 14th if opening is to happen on 21st, you don't decide the day before)

Which means we have 1 more week of data to review before then. At this stage while cases are increasing alarmingly, but deaths are not we could interpret as a combination of vaccination, prior infection, and demographics (younger people getting it but less likely to be ill with it) meaning that the mortality is no longer a major issue, and 'let cases rise, it's become more like a cold'.

Or, we could say that we are still too soon to tell, particularly as the cases initially have been mainly in some specific areas with specific demographics, and we need to see what happens now it is out there more widely.

2 weeks more data doesn't sound a lot but based on the inflection point we may well be at, it could also be 3x as much data.

Got my 2nd yesterday. 11 weeks. Scotland. Group 7.

The cities are a little behind compared to the average vaccination rate across the country.

2 weeks more data doesn’t sound a lot but based on the inflection point we may well be at, it could also be 3x as much data.

Very much this. Sounds like the D(?) variant is out and about. After all the mixing and movement over half term, a 2 week delay should give us time to assess what it's doing to hospitalisation and deaths, although - and apologies to joepud and all the others who would be affected - 4 weeks may be wiser. If the impact on deaths/NHS is tolerable, we may still be able to open up, even partially, with more and more getting vaccinated.

To my uneducated eye, the data suggests we need to be cautious. This is a real test of the "decision by data not dates"

Is anyone taking up the Govt offer for twice a week lateral flow tests. It was announced a few weeks ago - then not pushed except in relation to schools - but is getting mentioned again in light of impact of Delta variant.

Is anyone taking up the Govt offer for twice a week lateral flow tests. It was announced a few weeks ago – then not pushed except in relation to schools – but is getting mentioned again in light of impact of Delta variant.

Yup. Order online and you get a box of 7 rapid antigen tests posted to you. I'm a carer for my wife, plus my parents have cancer/heart disease so I thought makes sense to test myself weekly as I'm the one out and about. I upload the results (neg so far!) using my NHS ID.

Is anyone taking up the Govt offer for twice a week lateral flow tests. It was announced a few weeks ago – then not pushed except in relation to schools – but is getting mentioned again in light of impact of Delta variant.

My wife and daughter both test twice weekly, have done for months now, so not sure I really need to?.

I was wondering that, what's the difference to just ordering a pack and using them as before. Was it just a scheme to encourage use?

So far the vaccine hasn’t stopped us catching Covid, maybe the symptoms are less than they otherwise would have been.

if it is the latter that’s still a good reason to be vaccinated (not saying that’s what your post is saying but there are some who would pick up on your post and possibly use it to say ‘got vaccinated, still got infected = what’s the point in being vaccinated then?’)

I’m very much NOT saying don’t get vaccinated. The more people that are vaccinated then the better chance we have of reducing the impact of Covid for everyone.

Which was the message about vaccines all along and should not surprise anyone.

But listening to Ministers / Johnson this isn’t the message they are selling. It’s been, and continues to be, the miracle cure. Get vaccinated and this will all blow over, you could even have a nice pint whilst waiting. We are only a short distance down this long road.

Order online and you get a box of 7 rapid antigen tests posted to you.

Or just wander into your local pharmacy and ask for a pack.

Is anyone taking up the Govt offer for twice a week lateral flow tests.

Yes - though I have to - and have no issue doing so. Surprisingly few people that I know are actually doing them voluntarily and seem to be trading on the "I'm vaccinated" line instead.

Once you've done a few the whole process is down to a minute or two and then you just upload the results after 30 minutes.