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Stats here…
that interactive map, some rather disturbing cases "spikes" across the greater London metropolitan area.
I'll post some good news from the PHE Technical Briefing 13. The SIREN study in NHS workers is monitoring reinfections - defined as another pcr positive infection within 90 days of a previous positive test. This is a study of 45,000 people with relatively high exposure to SARS-CoV-2. The plot below shows that there has been no evidence of repeat infections in this heavily vaccinated population during the emergence of B.1.617.2. That's very good news - past infection and vaccination (95% coverage, pcr tested every two weeks) is not leading to repeat infections by immune escape and (as yet) waning immunity. The mutations in this strain are not predicted to cause immunological escape, and this data confirms it has not escaped. Like much of the PHE work, it's come up to speed very rapidly during the course of the new variant emergence, with weekly reporting and ever-more detailed reporting and data provided. One of the analyses in the report was based on work I presented to them four weeks ago 🙂
That's cool to see Tired!
Cases in my kids schools are making me twitchy!
The plot below shows that there has been no evidence of repeat infections in this heavily vaccinated population during the emergence of B.1.617.2
@tired, I’m not sure the graph does show there is no evidence of repeat infections with the India variant. You’d need to replot the last month with a massively rescaled Y-axis to see what the trend is. I had a quick look on the link you posted and saw in the document they claim to link to the raw data, but when I checked the excel figure 6 (data for the graph) is missing.
I have drank a gallon of wine and I’m looking at this in my phone so I maybe wrong.
So the first point in that article I've linked is wrong if I've understood the data you're presenting, Tired. Antibodies from pevious infection and "serum" vaccines do protect against the Indian variant (which is easier to tpe and remember than B.1.617.2 😉 )
90 days isn’t long tho. You’d need immunity to last more like a year to have any great confidence it.
Why local measures don’t work #147 …
Schools here are still using masks, but communication of that is left to the local authorities and schools themselves. The national messaging is still “no masks in schools”. It should be obvious where that kind of confused conflicting messaging leads by now. So, my lad’s school is having to hand out 300 masks A DAY to kids who have arrived at school without a mask.
Both my kids schools are wearing masks and don't seem to have an issue with that conflicting with the national headlines?
I'm definitely not trying to claim any intellectual superiority for the good folks of Ilkeston, far from it 🤣
Likewise both Kids schools wearing masks and no date for when this will change my eldest is also being tested twice per week. I am happy for this policy to stay the school has been doing really well and the Sunday testing seems to be catching a few which for me is excellent.
Study from phe reported Here that shows some good effectiveness against the Indian variant. IIRC there was also a study conducted on 3000 AZ vaccinated Indian health workers that showed good protection. I'd heard that on a radio report though and despite a quick Google I didn't find it. I'll take another look.
Edit :
Found via the spectator who note it's not a controlled study nor peer reviewed so make of it what you will.
According to this:
https://www.bmj.com/content/373/bmj.n1346
QUOTE 1
"The AstraZeneca vaccine was 60% effective against B.1.617.2 at two weeks after the second dose"
AM I RIGHT TO SAY THIS:
The Oxford vaccine is 60% effective, so 40% of the vaccinated people will still get covid.
We know from the new data that 2.8% of people that have received 2 doses are hospitalised.
38 million people have been vaccinated. Let assume 2/3 of people got the Oxford vaccine.
So if we open back up fully and it runs riot through the population with no social distancing measurea being reintroduced this is what will happen to those that received the Oxford vaccine:
38,000,000 X 2/3 = 25,333,333 people got the Oxford Vaccine
Of these 40% will get Covid due to effectiveness. 25,333,333 X 40% = 10,133,333
Of these 2.8% will be hospitalised. 10,133,333 X 2.8% = 283,733
QUOTE 2
But both vaccines were only 33% effective against symptomatic disease from B.1.617.2 three weeks after the first dose, whereas they were 50% effective against B.1.1.7.
AM I RIGHT TO SAY THIS:
The vaccines prevent 33% of the symptomatic disease (lets use effectiveness for calculations)
We know from the new data that 2.8% of people that have received 2 doses are hospitilised.
38 million people have been vaccinated.
So if we open back up and it runs riot through the population this is what will happen to those that have received a vaccine:
38,000,000 people have been vaccinated so far
Of these 67% will get Covid due to effectiveness. 25,333,333 X 67% = 25,460,000
Of these 2.8% will be hospitalised. 25,460,000 X 2.8% = 712,880
Since the pandemic started, 466,027 people have been hospitalised.
don’t seem to have an issue
I thought the same was the case here, ‘till the head emailed us all yesterday to point out the cost/waste/hassle of giving out all those masks, every day. Spoke to the kids, and yeah, lots of refuseniks based on “the government says no masks so stick your school rules” … despite of course the local decision being made based on published government advice to schools and made in cooperation with national public health bodies, rather than whatever the PM and ministers say on the googlebox and brief to the papers. The top line messaging matters more than what is published in obscure documents parents will never read. That lesson should have been learned over a year ago.
I want to post something more positive, so…
https://twitter.com/rebeccajshipley/status/1398205503403085825?s=21
https://twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1398610048188915714?s=21
90 days isn’t long tho.
You’re right. Except they have a huge sample size. Using this definition they did identify a reinfection rate last year that looked similar to other coronaviruses. The other analyses also suggest protection based on simple odds ratios. At least any effect looks small. In still not convinced that this is not expansion into a niche with crossover into an unvaccinated but more mixing community due to unlocking. Higher transmissibility is possible, but it’s not measles!
Just noticed quote 2 referenced first dose, so I was wrong with what I went on to say.
AM I RIGHT TO SAY THIS:
The Oxford vaccine is 60% effective, so 40% of the vaccinated people will still get covid.
We know from the new data that 2.8% of people that have received 2 doses are hospitalised.
I don't know but my challenges, that I'd look to explore if i wanted to dig further would be
1/ 60% sounds poor, but against the standard variant (Kent I think) it is 66% effective. So not actually that different.
2/ 2.8% hospitalised? Where's that from (polite way of saying CITE!!) Is that 2.8% of all people who've been vaccinated or 2.8% of the people who subsequently get it (ie 2.8% of the 34 or 40%)
2a/ as I've said earlier I think hospitalization is not necessarily a reflection of illness any more; while beds are available we may be treating people who are not in desperate need. Ultimately how many are dying of it is the only real measure.
3/ Getting Covid after vaccination may not be as serious. So the old inevitable ratio of hosp to deaths seems so far to be breaking down.
I don't know if you're wrong or not, but that's what I'd look to question.
1/ 60% is according to this -
https://www.bmj.com/content/373/bmj.n1346
2/ 2.8% hospitalised - 5 people hospitalised out of 177 cases - will be interesting to see the rate at the next release
Page 11 -
2a/ The data at this stage suggests 1.1% of cases still go onto die after 2 doses (2 deaths out of 177 cases) but not enough data to be confident of this rate.
1/ not disagreeing the number, the comment is that it is 'only' 66% effective against the Kent variant, so while it is less effective it's not like 90 or 100% effective dropping to 60%. That's in the same BMJ preprint.
2/ i/ There were NOT 5 hospitalisations, there were 5 A&E visits. The line above is for "At least one night in hospital = 1/177 = 0.6% and the squiggle next to it basically says this data is unsafe and needs more looking at to avoid over and underestimation. Basically - you can't rely on it.
[ii/ Only one admission but two deaths? Seems strange - but it's not clear to me that these are deaths with Covid or deaths as a result of Covid. Just an aside really]
3/ Hypothesis but this feels a bit like cherry picking. Yes, 2/177 = 1.1% of the double vaccinated resulted in deaths but the table says that there were 8 deaths in 3367 unvaccinated = 0.2%. You cannot use 2/177 and extrapolate that to the whole population. The double vaccinated, particularly if this relates to populations in the NW, etc., I hypothesize these would be the most elderly and susceptible, vaccine or not and the higher death rate is due to something else rather than the efficacy or otherwise of vaccine. If you just go to the numbers,a logical extension of that is that having had the vaccine makes you 5x more likely to die than if you don't have it - so stop vaccinating now!
4/ A note of surprise - I believe most of the cases, particularly as they will have been genotyped by specific targeted PCR campaigns will have been in the noted areas. Round numbers - 1300 vaccinated vs 3367 unvaccinated. That's low uptake.
BBC reporting another worrying new variant. Vietnam have a 'hybrid' kent-indian.
State of play in the NHS Trusts currently...
https://twitter.com/chrisceohopson/status/1398871050931290112?s=21
2/ Does anybody know if the NHS Covid admissions that are published are A&E visits or overnight stays ?
This suggests an A&E visit might be an admission but it is not covid specific. I agree with theotherjonv that it would be better if it were overnight stays, but not clear.
https://www.nhs.uk/nhs-services/hospitals/going-into-hospital/going-into-hospital-as-a-patient/
2a/ I agree deaths is not reliable so I did not put in original statement
This suggests an A&E visit is not an admission.
https://www.nhs.uk/nhs-services/urgent-and-emergency-care-services/when-to-go-to-ae/
Would be good if it is overnight stays as my numbers will improve a lot.
Good Twitter thread that. Vaccines currently protecting those that have already had them, and don’t have other health issues. Which still begs the question… why not as near as dammit get everyone vaccinated before doing away with social distancing and mask wearing? I’m not talking shutting anything we’ve managed to re-open… just keep them open but without a “freedom day, don’t bother worrying about others” event in June that signals that we no longer need to act to prevent spreading the virus?
The head of NHS Providers has said "very, very few" Covid patients in hospital in England have received two coronavirus jabs - showing the vaccines provide "very high" levels of protection.
Chris Hopson said patients tended now to be younger - meaning there was a lower need for critical care.
But he said it was "incredibly striking" how busy hospitals were, as they deal with non-Covid backlogs.
This sounds very promising on the covid front, but the backlog of non covid work sounds like an issue that will never go away without massive changes to the NHS in terms of funding, capacity and staff levels. I can foresee lockdown being used every time the NHS comes close to being overpressured over the next few years if we don't get a grip on it.
The backlog was horrendous before covid even sprung up so not sure what is next...
I also see the Sunday Times reporting that British intelligence services now admitting a Wuhan lab leak is very feasible. That's going to upset a lot of people but I've been open minded about it from the very beginning. Maybe now it's on the front of a newspaper I won't be shouted down as much.
That’s going to upset a lot of people but I’ve been open minded about it from the very beginning. Maybe now it’s on the front of a newspaper I won’t be shouted down as much.
Same here. Won't be the first. Smallpox leaked here, SARS has leaked from various labs, there was a Russian bioweapon, the FDA found some forgotten-about smallpox samples in a store cupboard. Does happen.
Revised version bases on admissions being overnight stays.
QUOTE 1
“A preprint paper released by Public Health England on 22 May showed that between 5 April and 16 May the Pfizer vaccine was 88% effective, two weeks after the second dose, against the B.1.617.2 variant...The AstraZeneca vaccine was 60% effective against B.1.617.2 at two weeks after the second dose...”
AM I RIGHT TO SAY THIS:
The Oxford vaccine is 60% effective, so 40% of the vaccinated people will still get covid.
We know from the new data that 0.56% of people that have received 2 doses and test positive are hospitalised.
38 million people have been vaccinated. Let assume 2/3 of people got the Oxford vaccine.
So if we open back up fully and it runs riot through the population with no social distancing measures being reintroduced this is what will happen to those that received the vaccines (assuming everyone gets their second dose):
38,000,000 X 2/3 = 25,333,333 people got the Oxford Vaccine
Of these 40% will get Covid due to effectiveness. 25,333,333 X 40% = 10,133,333
Of these 0.56% will be hospitalised. 10,133,333 X 0.56% = 56,764
38,000,000 X 1/3 = 12,666,666 people got the Pfizer Vaccine
Of these 12% will get Covid due to effectiveness. 12,666,666 X 12% = 1,520,000
Of these 0.56% will be hospitalised. 1,520,000 X 0.56% = 8,512
January 1st to 31st March, 170,221 people were hospitalised for Covid as comparison.
also see the Sunday Times reporting that British intelligence services now admitting a Wuhan lab leak is very feasible. That’s going to upset a lot of people but I’ve been open minded about it from the very beginning. Maybe now it’s on the front of a newspaper I won’t be shouted down as much.
Always seemed plausible to me. At least very much worth considering. A Coronavirus pandemic starts in a city with a bio lab specialising in coronavirus research?
Hmmmm. Let me think about that one for a second...
Neiloxford - the maths looks better and more realistic, next step is whether 40% will really get Covid in the longer term because of this mythical herd immunity. And if they do, how long will it take before they get it. 56K all at the same time would be horrendous. Over the course of the next 2 years, is far more manageable.
Am I misreading Neil here in that those numbers arent accounting for people who are vaccinated, get infected, but are protected by the from serious illness effectively enough that no test is taken?
I also see the Sunday Times reporting that British intelligence services now admitting a Wuhan lab leak is very feasible
Which is fine if lessons around biosecurity are learned, and maybe we stop researching how to weaponise the stuff.
Or could open a really unpleasant can of worms if idiots want to play a blame game to distract from their own failings.
theotherjonv - also vaccine protection appears to improve with time based on what we know about the first dose, so it might be the case with the 2nd dose as well.
piemonster - I am not sure to be honest
with regard to was the origin of Covid - this is my logic:
If a virus capable of creating a global pandemic was 1st discovered in Salisbury I would assume it leaked out of the Defence Science and Technology Laboratory at Porton Down by accident until proven otherwise - some would blame the Russians
If a virus capable of creating a global pandemic was 1st discovered in Wuhan I would assume it leaked out of the Wuhan Institute of Virology, CAS: Hubei Engineering and Technology Research Center for Viral Diseases by accident until proven otherwise - some would blame frozen food
airvent
Free MemberI also see the Sunday Times reporting that British intelligence services now admitting a Wuhan lab leak is very feasible. That’s going to upset a lot of people but I’ve been open minded about it from the very beginning.
TBF I don't think anyone will be upset by the comment that it's "feasible". But it's not like it's a smoking gun or a proven link. It'll fuel the conspiracy theorists and racists a little is all but it doesn't make any difference to anything else.
I don't regard British intelligence reports as any more reliable than what the Chinese government says. Similar level of unreliable bollocks going on previous efforts.
So what do you count as reliable?
Recall that the efficacy of the AZ vaccine in the under 55s in the U.K. study was 62%. I know people are thinking 90% prevention of symptomatic infections, but this was not the case. Prevention of admissions and deaths is higher and welcome, buts some of those cases will be vaccinated. I see nothing unusual about that.
Not seeing the high rise in admissions, Bolton is definitely rising, but these are reported as not being vaccinated ans still less than predicted. Bedfordshire not showing any increase. Fingers crossed but I am optimistic.
As for Step 4, less optimistic. I expect some fudge that means some action but not complete return to full contact. I’m not party to that decision, but I do review and contribute to some of the materials used for decision making. Data not dates to a great when the data is in your favour...
So what do you count as reliable?
In the case of SARS 2, not a lot. Very similar viruses have been circulating for a while and not being successful. This one is successful, the exact departure point I doubt we'll ever know. However blaming and finger pointing isn't going to go well.
Spanish flu would be better named American flu.
Hi TiRed. Can I ask a stupid question? Why doesn't the body develop immunity to the chimpanzee virus used as a vector to carry the viral RNA into the cell nucleus?
I know it can't replicate but is it just that a sufficient amount is injected that it doesn't really matter how primed the immune system is?
Anyone else had a leaflet through about Ivermectin?
Looks like some muppet has the funds to push an unproven medicine for the treatment of covid onto the gullible. Looks like the Great Barrington Declaration might have shares in this drug...
As for Step 4, less optimistic. I expect some fudge that means some action but not complete return to full contact.
This. The date is now politically very hard to shift. Get ready for Step 5 later in the year for removal of measures kept after Step 4. If they have any sense, they won’t suggest a date for Step 5, and will suggest that it will be dependent on what happens internationally (ie. not our fault gov).
Can I ask a stupid question? Why doesn’t the body develop immunity to the chimpanzee virus used as a vector to carry the viral RNA into the cell nucleus?
It does. The important part is that it’s not fully neutralising after fist exposure. Booster A vaccines might need another carrier virus. The Sputnik vaccine deliberately chooses to use two different viruses. J&J uses one dose.
We are also interested in whether dosing antibodies will have an effect on vaccines. Neutralising at the spike protein may change the seroconversion. It may enhance in some circumstances. Immunology is utterly fantastic.
WRT hospital admissions, it’s noticeable that whilst hospital admissions are rising, the number in hospital with cv is still falling.
As for Step 4, less optimistic. I expect some fudge that means some action but not complete return to full contact.
This. The date is now politically very hard to shift. Get ready for Step 5 later in the year for removal of measures kept after Step 4. If they have any sense, they won’t suggest a date for Step 5, and will suggest that it will be dependent on what happens internationally (ie. not our fault gov).
I'm pretty happy with that, if proper support is put in place for any sectors unable to open.
WRT hospital admissions, it’s noticeable that whilst hospital admissions are rising, the number in hospital with cv is still falling.
Not sure if you're getting what we had in Australia, but once lockdown reduced people went nuts and all the emergency presentations went up, elective surgery re-started, etc, etc, so while it's a totally different case-mix it got very busy indeed.
In the case of SARS 2, not a lot. Very similar viruses have been circulating for a while and not being successful. This one is successful, the exact departure point I doubt we’ll ever know. However blaming and finger pointing isn’t going to go well.
Spanish flu would be better named American flu.
Then it's a waste of a discussion isn't it, of you don't count any source as being reliable enough to form an opinion from.
It's not exactly finger pointing either, it's being open to discussing a wide reaching investigation of potential causes for something that has killed over three and a half million people so far. How else will lessons ever be learned. It's not about blame so much as making sure this never happens again which is impossible if we don't try and learn as much as we can.
I know what you're saying about reliability of sources but at the end of the day us plebs can only go off the information available to us and it doesn't mean we point blank can't discuss it. The Salisbury nerve poisoning incident killed only a handful of people not millions yet nobody claimed racism when the authorities pinned the blame on Russia without hard evidence.
Not sure what you mean by your comment on Spanish flu, that's what it's called regardless of where it started, I never mentioned it either?
Guangdong province (numerous cities) reacts to cases
I needed to go to Guangzhou to our consulate. Looks like I haveo fly all the way to Beijing now
if proper support is put in place for any sectors unable to open
A big “if”. And I agree. But my big worry is places being “allowed to open” but not being able to do so and break even, due to ongoing measures and people acting to reduce spread/hospitalisations/deaths and new strains due to “personal choice”. The worst thing that could happen now is whole sectors being expected to operate without government financial help when the reality is that their trade is still seriously restricted by the ongoing pandemic (despite being allowed to be “open”).
Five mile walk to the vaccination centre yesterday for my second jab. Returned by train - a train that had passed through Bolton before getting to me. Viewer discretion advised for the more anxious among you. There may be trouble ahead...
[img] 
[/img]
What's the issue? You're on the train too so you're part of the problem 🤣
Bloke at the front looks like he wants to batter you.
What’s the issue? You’re on the train too so you’re part of the problem
Like a motorist sat in a jam and moaning about the traffic.
Everyone who's face is in shot is wearing a mask and almost all the windows are open. I think it's about as good as one could expect on a busy train.
The Salisbury nerve poisoning incident killed only a handful of people not millions yet nobody claimed racism when the authorities pinned the blame on Russia without hard evidence.
A lot of people did actually:
Bloke at the front looks like he wants to batter you
But realises it would be unwise. You can see from the camera angle that Monty is quite tall and in that train I reckon he's ducking. You can't see the wild man of the north look. As others have said, windows open and masks mostly over noses - all good. Don't do that in Paris Monty.
Read this page (page 6, it's no longer possible to link pages, only page 1) on the original Salisbury thread, Airvent:
You'll note I showed the same reserve towards anti-Russian propaganda as I do towards anti-Chinese Covid propaganda. Or anti-anywhere else propaganda for that matter.
I don't know if any of you watched Merkel and Macron live a few minutes ago, I feel in good hands.
Five mile walk to the vaccination centre yesterday for my second jab. Returned by train – a train that had passed through Bolton before getting to me. Viewer discretion advised for the more anxious among you. There may be trouble ahead…
train to the jab and walk back might have been more sensible then
No comment on the fact we've ZERO covid related deaths today, the first day since March 7th 2020? Thats amazing considering we are still at 3000+ cases per day, predominantly of a new variant.
Is this fundamentally proving the the vaccines is working, and could the current decision for 21st June be based on the cases do not a weight on the NHS as they used to?
So many questions, but it feels good...
It does feel like good news but I'm sure yesterday being a bank holiday is relevant.
It does. There was / is always going to be a lag from this increase in cases to the ultimate measure of deaths (as said before I don't necessarily think hospitalization is like for like compared to previous waves) but we are starting to reach the point where they would be starting and the longer they don't is only a good thing.
I wonder if zero is a vagary of reporting over a BH weekend, but still it's zero reported.
(I also sceptically wonder if it's a fudge but that's what this gov does to you)
The 7 day average is also the lowest it’s been since the start of the pandemic.
I wonder if zero is a vagary of reporting over a BH weekend, but still it’s zero reported.
(I also sceptically wonder if it’s a fudge but that’s what this gov does to you)
Pretty sure its a bank holiday weekend anomaly. Just as the experts were saying how we needed to take care and reconsider opening up on 21st, suddenly a zero death day takes the headlines?
but that’s what this gov does to you
Unfortunately yes, nice distraction from the Cummings saga isn't it.
The 7 day average is also the lowest it’s been since the start of the pandemic.
Quite. Its been what 2-3 weeks since cases started to rise again, so we've probably 2 weeks to go before we see the impact of that?
Yeah, I saw the zero deaths on gov dashboard earlier, and thought thats going to be headline news, and sure enough it is. But is really a false figure, an artefact of a Bank Holiday weekend. Sundays always report low deaths reflecting reduced hospital reporting done on Saturday, mondays figure lower again, reflecting (lack of) reporting on sunday, then, surprise, Tuesday figure is high as the weekend deaths get reported with admin staff back to work on the monday.
TBF, the BBC are pointing out the reporting delays in a linked article.
When we get zero for 7 consecutive days we can celebrate.
Pretty sure its a bank holiday weekend anomaly. Just as the experts were saying how we needed to take care and reconsider opening up on 21st, suddenly a zero death day takes the headlines?
As someone thats planning on getting married in abut 5-6 weeks and planning on having more than 30 people at the wedding if they want to reconsider this opening up on the 21st the announcement needs to come like yesterday. A last minute change of plan would be an absolute disaster for me personally and im sure many others. I have had to move my wedding 4 times I don't fancy a 5th. In all honestly though I would be extremely shocked if it didn't happen.
Speaking from experience Joepud, use this perfect excuse to stick with 30 otherwise the bar bill gets very expensive...
On a serious note, I hope it works out and you get to enjoy your big day, congrats!
As someone thats planning on getting married in abut 5-6 weeks and planning on having more than 30 people at the wedding if they want to reconsider this opening up on the 21st the announcement needs to come like yesterday
The date for the government to confirm any changes on 21st June is pretty well known. I really feel for people like you, but I wouldn't have made any plans relying on everything falling into place the week before.
I really hope it works out for you. Out riding on Saturday I rode past the first wedding I've seen in 15 months at a pretty village church - couple of little bridesmaids all dressed up, a few guests waiting outside, even a piper playing.
Genuinely choked me up seeing that hope and happiness for the first time in all these months. And I'm firmly in the "30 is more than enough" camp from my own experience 🤣
This is not over by some distance...
I think people (not necessarily the ones here) need to remember the rationale behind the 5 week phasing of the 'roadmap' to the lifting of restrictions -
ie (set of) restrictions lifted day zero
then because of that
1 week for people to be infected
2 weeks for infections to lead to hospitalisation
2 weeks for hospitalisations to lead to deaths
- we are part way along that timeline, and it is so far looking quite good.
Is it good enough for us to start sucking each other's dicks? It's only the 1st of June; infections are up but hospitalisations do not appear to be following; in two weeks time we'll have more to go on.
It is beginning to look reasonable to be optimistic, but let's not just see what we want to see.
^ I agree.
I don't think we can use hospitalizations as an accurate 'lap split' because I suspect beds are used not just by need but also availability; there is not necessarily a like for like when pressure is on vs off. Someone from the front line could probably answer that.
My own reading / recollection is that rather than +2 weeks and +2 weeks it's more like 7-10 d Inf->Hosp and 10-14d Hosp->Death. So i reckon this week's numbers will start to show it up if they are going to.
Deaths will rise, the question is by how much and (every one a tragedy of course) is that deemed tolerable?
I said a year ago, I don't know what tolerable is. And I'm glad i don't have to make that decision. I wish I had more faith in those that do.
Deaths will rise, the question is by how much and (every one a tragedy of course) is that deemed tolerable?
I said a year ago, I don’t know what tolerable is. And I’m glad i don’t have to make that decision. I wish I had more faith in those that do.
Yeah, that's the key factor. The "tolerable" number of deaths - much better word than "acceptable" - and faith in the decision makers.
The 7 day average is also the lowest it’s been since the start of the pandemic.
That’s incorrect I’m afraid.
It was 37 a week ago on the 25th May. 43 as of yesterday, 16% higher. Suspect it will further increase once the bank holiday deaths are reported.
Mudmuncher - same figures different viewpoint.
The last average daily deaths plotted on the graph was 6.9 per day, which was below any point we reached last year. It dipped to 5.9 one day last week, but that was under the trend which is still reducing.
When the numbers are small, percentage changes & variations are huge, but not representative. We saw some rises this week, but on the back of multiple 40% drops the week before. We may get a bigger number reported today - the same happened after the long Easter Weekend.
I stand by the thrust of my argument. Our death rate at the moment is as low as it has been since the pandemic started.
Dantstw13 - I’m pretty sure we hit the inflection point for deaths a week or so ago. As you mention numbers are small so difficult to differentiate in the noise, but cases and admissions have been increasing for a few weeks now so rising deaths are in the pipeline - hopefully to a lesser degree thanks to the vaccine.
Is it good enough for us to start sucking each other’s dicks?
Is that a thing now? Can’t say it made it to the “things I want to do post lockdown” list.
Hospital admission numbers are interesting. Even though the admissions have risen, the number in hospital is still falling. People are spending 2-3 days admitted instead of a month.
The Bolton Director of Public Health has reported that the admissions they are seeing are not of severe cases like at the peak.
I'm no Lockdown sceptic - probably the opposite - just someone who has spent my furlough time avidly following the whole pandemic.
The Bolton Director of Public Health has reported that the admissions they are seeing are not of severe cases like at the peak.
That's interesting and maybe supports my hospitalization based on availability rather than absolute need hypothesis.
Deaths will rise, the question is by how much and (every one a tragedy of course) is that deemed tolerable?
I'm not sure that's the bottom line. I think it's more a case of how much hospitalisation can the NHS stand whilst doing all the other stuff it has to do. Obviously the lower the numbers of hospitalisation the lower the death rate will be, but putting a number on it I don't think is possible. We are going to be in a similar situation to flu and other respiratory diseases that are still with us and causing deaths. Waiting for zero deaths in a seven day period could be some time.
I agree ^^
This is now about protecting the NHS and protecting the economy, not reducing any such statistics to zero.
This is now about protecting the NHS and protecting the economy, not reducing any such statistics to zero.
That's been the aim from the first lockdown, just getting through till vaccination/treatments can minimise the impact of the virus.