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We don’t want to find out this doesn’t work after we have wiped out 2-3million people.
If we even get near to a fraction of that or people believe it's the policy of the government I think we can expect much bigger problems. It's bad enough trying to deal with the virus and economic impact, imagine trying to deal with social disorder and mass panic at the same time?
This is why they need to get a grip on the comms, and be completely transparent on what they're doing, and what's happening on the ground. Instead we have them blustering on the Andrew Marr show and leaking policy to Robert Peston.
They're not even testing people at home with symptons so they can't tell people what the situation is, so the vacuum is filled with rumour and speculation, which could very quickly turn into paranoia, suspicion, anxiety and panic. South Korea are getting this right. We are currently doing the opposite.
Cometh the hour, cometh.... Matt Hancock jeez he was awful on Marr, flustered & shifty when pressed on obvious issues about bed & nursing numbers, the ventilator war footing thing sounds like just efforts to reassure & sound like they're doing something & why weren't they doing this a month ago ?
He also directly contradicted what vallance had said about herd immunity
Peston is doing his usual job of being unofficial spokesman for No10 by dribbling out policies to test the water that they can either confirm or deny depending on the reaction to it
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1238917834111156231?s=19
Which Hancock sort of confirmed on Marr
“ What has happened here is that Johnson and Cummings were given “options” by Vallance and Whitty and they chose the riskiest response with the least amount of damage to the economy. ”
I’d put good money on this claim being completely fabricated unless the original poster can actually provide any first hand evidence for this ludicrous assertion.
@uphillcursing That would be my concern, yes. However our supplier tells me they're massively ramping production; the lead time might be an issue as another 20 vents in Aug when the peak has passed might not be much help.
If we even get near to a fraction of that or people believe it’s the policy of the government I think we can expect much bigger problems. It’s bad enough trying to deal with the virus and economic impact, imagine trying to deal with social disorder and mass panic at the same time?
This is why they need to get a grip on the comms, and be completely transparent on what they’re doing, and what’s happening on the ground. Instead we have them blustering on the Andrew Marr show and leaking policy to Robert Peston.
They’re not even testing people at home with symptons so they can’t tell people what the situation is, so the vacuum is filled with rumour and speculation, which could very quickly turn into paranoia, suspicion, anxiety and panic. South Korea are getting this right. We are currently doing the opposite.
+1, the problem is we are only really measuring deaths now which lag infections by 2 weeks. By the time deaths get high, even if they put the brakes on hard, due to the exponential growth it could be too late.
2 weeks ago we had 28 cases. Now 1140, that is a 40 fold increase. Not a big deal when the numbers are low, but if repeated once we have more infection it will be ugly.
If they throw the brakes on at say 1000 deaths, it could possible rise to 40K deaths before the rate starts to reduce
I’d put good money on this claim being completely fabricated unless the original poster can actually provide any first hand evidence for this ludicrous assertion.
what do you think ? Vallance and Whitty didn't give options or Johnston and Cummins didn't pick the most favourable option for the economy.
Twitter post quoted on the guardian
Philip Oltermann
(@philipoltermann)
German government now confirming this report in Welt am Sonntag: Trump administration tried to poach German virologists working on Corona vaccine in Tübingen and offered large sums so it would be exclusive to US https://t.co/DKWnuMHr9p
I'm lost for words
If that turns out to be true he should be taken to account over that.
Vile vile man.
It’s clear they have put the economy ahead of the lives of the people, but this economic strategy is also flawed....
We rely so much on trade with other countries so we need to be in step with what they are doing.
If Bojo let’s this rip through the population thinking he can get the economy back on track in 6 months he might struggle if the other countries in the world that we trade with are all on lockdown having prioritised their people over the economy.
If you dont test those with mild symptoms we won’t need to isolate teachers.
This is true, it would just delay the ineveitable for another week to ten days when students were off sick and staff were also calling in sick. I think it would increase infection rate also as the self isolation check has been removed. It would spread to non teaching staff more quickly as well in that eventuality.
What guidelines?
What I have seen from an LA says that anyone who has been in close contact/ proximity to an infected person should self isolate for 14 days. A teacher would be talking face to face within half a metre of students, posible using the same pen, touching books, and well within coughing/ sneezing range. Maybe I have misinterpreted it.
Chapeau to the guy in front of me in the supermarket yesterday.
20 L&B and a lottery ticket. That is a proper gambler.
Have the government officially said they are dropping this strategy?
The Secretary of State for Health has said so, in a letter for the Telegraph, and on TV… for this government, that’s as close as you get to “officially” announcing anything. The “herd immunity by exposure, before the winter hits” idea was always intellectuality and morally bankrupt. The most worrying thing is, it risks utterly eroding trust in the government at a time when we are likely to need people to trust and act at speed on future instructions from the centre.
2 weeks ago we had 28 cases. Now 1140, that is a 40 fold increase. Not a big deal when the numbers are low, but if repeated once we have more infection it will be ugly.
Indeed, the doubling time seems to be about 3 to 4 days. There is no time for dallying.
WHO are recommending screening I think, but I don’t really understand the benefits. Since people can be infectious days before showing symptoms, then I think we have at this stage to presume anyone we come into contact with is infectious. Stay well back, wash hands, clean door handles (maybe?), ...
It's not really people's lives vs the economy though is it, if the economy tanks there will deaths caused by that as well as public spending us cut, incomes squeezed further and people out of jobs. Its abalancing act between killing peopke with the virus vs killing people through deprivation.
I don't see this ending well whatever is done, herd immunity is a long way off and may not work, I can't see us eradicating the virus now it's so wide spread so I don't see a lot of the short term containment and delay tactics helping long term whilst making the short term disruption a lot worse.
As for ramping up ventilator production, no chance, there will be thousands of parts sourced from a global supply chain. I would also expect they're normally made to order so the infrastructure to mass produce won't be in place.
From a maths perspective.....
Say if you accepted 3 months of lockdown over the next 6 months, due to the exponential growth, surely the lowest level of infection would result if you lockdown on and off every 2 weeks. E.g. 2 weeks lockdown, 2 weeks less stringent, alternating back and forth, rather than waiting 3 months when we have millions of cases then implementing 3 months of continuous lockdown?
I’d put good money on this claim being completely fabricated unless the original poster can actually provide any first hand evidence for this ludicrous assertion.
I should have caveated my statement with "suspect". However, it's quite clear that the science isn't agreed upon and that stating the governments position is based on the "best possible science" is mathswashing. As mathematicians, statisticians, epidemiologists are pointing out, these models are based on assumptions that are open to criticism and there are a range of models and scenarios non of which are more "accurate" than the other as they have not been truly tested against any real world event that is comparable to this. Plenty of epidemiologists will tell you that we are learning as we are going along with this.
With that in mind, I will stick by my caveated assertion.
https://twitter.com/Darrenmacey/status/1239135124136120321
https://twitter.com/Darrenmacey/status/1239123592467697664
😀
The Washington post article is excellent
Would be so good if government could explain things so clearly.
I work with a lot of data scientists (some of the profs who signed the letter to government)
They're asking to see the numbers the government are using, considering theyve haven't 3 years hiding their workings on Brexit I see know reason why they'll do it for this!
I am not surprised that the most divided and poorly led country in Europe is now going to tear itself apart over this as well.
Would be so good if government could explain things so clearly.
It's a shame that we don't have a world leading centre dedicated in part to this, that the government could call upon if they were halfway competent.
Hint: We do, it's called The Turing Institute.
Not going to check back through the whole thread to see if this has been poseted but this makes for sobering reading. Just update your browser now and then. Interesting that Norway has about the highest infection rate per million of population.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
For social distancing, maybe we should all be wearing gloves and something this...
And we thought the toilet paper issue was bad!
https://twitter.com/cjjohnsonjr/status/1238868541689880576?s=20
Laughable how little these buffoons know about UK manufacturing that they expect UK firms to switch productions lines designed for cars, diggers and jet engines to make ventilators.
That one is certainly at the 'monkey tennis?' end of the idea-floating spectrum. It's like they've had one of those meetings where there is 'no such thing as a bad idea'.
As for ramping up ventilator production, no chance, there will be thousands of parts sourced from a global supply chain.
I am sure we can cobble something together.
It could be powered by a static bike a sort of Zwift my Ventilator.
It would need a constant supply of riders though.
Austria is on lockdown. Travellers from Uk banned from entering
It would need a constant supply of riders though.
Or the ability to hold 250W for 24 hours.
Bit harsh in Austria if you've got four kids. Which one to get rid of?
Bit harsh in Austria if you’ve got four kids. Which one to get rid of?
Dinner?
So the fattest one.
Anybody else abroad at the moment? We've been in the US, just shifted an internal flight plus a BA flight to bring us home early tonight. When we left the UK this was still a low level chatter but seems to be full panic now.
Las Vegas was emptish when we arrived as the conventions were all cancelled, people worried about their jobs. The navajo nation closed behind us as we left arizona, closing all the national parks/sights. By the time we reached Santa Fe everything was closed, so managed to get the last flight out of alburquque to NY. Got a day in NY before flight later and the city is very very quiet. The mega walmarts are all out of toilet roll and cleaning products, along with flour etc.. But everywhere has fastidious cleaning routines and people are lining up to clean hands and trolleys at stations before entering supermarkets and other places, all the employees dealing with public have gloves. General air of panic over here to though, even in the middle of nowhere arizona. If you cough in an airport/plane people eyeball/move away, reasonable amount of facemasks. Very little information about whether to stick out for your normal flights or get the hell back ASAP. BA were good and just changed flights no problem.
Did anyone post this already?
Did anyone post this already?
So you are offering a podiatrists opinion, who's idea of modelling is a bottle and a water bucket as a response to world leading statisticians and epidemiologists who are not happy with the govs response? Americans publish probabilistic model designed for mass consumption to educate the population, we rely on a foot quack and a bucket of water.
Sounds very British. Very Brexit. You have captured the zeitgeist.
Sounds on a par with the uninformed bollocks being spouted on here.
I was waiting for the bit where he dumps a 15 gallon drum into the bottle to demonstrate how to get to herd immunity quickly.
His garden needs attention too.....
I was waiting for the bit where he dumps a 15 gallon drum into the bottle to demonstrate how to get to herd immunity quickly.
Be more realistic if he had a thimble instead of a bottle with a hole in.
Also, a bit more seriously, he propagates the notion that we can someehow "slow down" the input of water into the system. In fact even if we couldimmediately quarantine every individual in the country, enough already HAVE the disease to fill the bucket twice over.
Be more realistic if he had a thimble instead of a bottle with a hole in.
Also needs a refilling 15 gallon drum if the immunological response/memory isn't strong enough and a thimble/bottle that slowly dissolves when water is applied.
So without scrolling through thousands of posts..
Lots of people say it's a bad idea not cracking down now. I've not heard one person explain how we stop it just kicking off again in 6 months again if we do?
Strikes me we are screwed either way. Only option is either a cure or vaccine, neither a remote possibility at the moment.
I’ve not heard one person explain how we stop it just kicking off again in 6 months again if we do?
* Binary model/choice is simplistic.
* In six months we could have well identified a currently in use drug that can be co-opted as an antiviral against Covid.
* There has been a backlash against the government from plenty of experts, who want to see their models and evidence.
* There a lot of unknowns, eg leading virologists and epidemiologists are stating that we don't know whether letting it run rampant now would actually confer long term immunity in enough people due to the bodies immune response.
I paid £6 for a litre of isopropyl alcohol a year ago, eBay wants around £40 now!!!!!
Aldi was the same as Christmas time today.
“UK response to Coronavirus — why I think it’s appropriate” by Michael G Head
Good thread on Twitter from Andy Burnham - currently the Mayor of Manchester but former Health Secretary during the Swine Flu outbreak
https://twitter.com/AndyBurnhamGM/status/1239144694627667969
Lots of people say it’s a bad idea not cracking down now. I’ve not heard one person explain how we stop it just kicking off again in 6 months again if we do?
Strikes me we are screwed either way. Only option is either a cure or vaccine, neither a remote possibility at the moment.
You've just answered your own question. It buys time, at least in theory.
So you are offering a podiatrists opinion, who’s idea of modelling is a bottle and a water bucket as a response to world leading statisticians and epidemiologists who are not happy with the govs response?
Jesus Christ. Everything's a ****ing bunfight with you isn't it?
NO I AM NOT OFFERING A PODIATRIST VIDEO AS A SCIENTIFIC ARGUMENT TO TRY AND BEAT YOU.
I posted it as an illustration of the concept. Feel free to counter it in the spirit of discussion, not winning. I don't want to win, I want to think and learn.
Why does everything have to be so ****ing confrontational on here? Jesus. I'm not supporting the government, not am I trashing it out of anger. I just want to understand the situation and work out what the eminent and highly respected scientists behind it are thinking. And maybe share that. Of course it's be easier if they published all their thinking.
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-51895276
Interestingly couldn't find anything in German.... Measures for public spaces, restaurants, schools and reduced travel time tables that come into effect on Monday have been announced.
From that Guardian feed… looks like Nike have joined Apple in shutting shops, including in countries where that isn’t being called for by the national government.
You’ve just answered your own question. It buys time, at least in theory
Time ? 2 maybe 3 weeks till the more fortunate workers have burnt through their contingency funds and things start getting really messy ?
That's after the huge swathes of the poopulation who have no contingency have turned to canabalism. ....
It’s a shame that we don’t have a world leading centre dedicated in part to this, that the government could call upon if they were halfway competent.
Hint: We do, it’s called The Turing Institute.
Yes, but expert bodies that are impartial and just interested in the truth come up with answers that make authority look stupid more often than not.
I have this a lot at my workplace (do you want the ‘right’ answer or the correct one?”
That’s after the huge swathes of the poopulation who have no contingency have turned to canabalism. ….
Going to be interesting to see if the government has the appetite for food parcels or coupons if it ever went that far sideways. The whole concept of giving and not getting back will be a bit alien. How you feed your population in a quarantined planet is going to be a challenge. Oh but we can do credits won't cut it, there isn't going to be enough people to process the claims.
I have this a lot at my workplace (do you want the ‘right’ answer or the correct one?”
Isn't the whole of market research and consultancy based on that?
100 yards from my house and I’m on the slope of the mountain. There’s plenty forest to disappear into.
If there’s a lockdown, I’ll be bikepacking for 4 months.
If they look serious about doing it, I’ll put the gear together, and I’ll be out the door. The family can do food drops for me.
Basic fail from you here. Priti Patel would be in charge of the efforts to track you down.
Easiest, most effective and in-keeping option would be to arrest your family and ‘persuade’ them to ‘assist’ with finding you.
You could then be ‘shot whilst trying to escape’. Nice and clean, no witnesses.
You need to think more about this.
This fella doesn’t seem impressed.
Hint: We do, it’s called The Turing Institute.
And they're the ones asking to see the governments workings out
Yup.
They shouldn't even be having to ask, if this were a case of the government simply drip feeding us, they'd have been in consultation with bodies like that already. They haven't been.
Useless is an understatement.
molgrips
SubscriberNo we are being drip-fed to create appetite for the measures.
Yep, I find reducing faith in the government and creating massive confusion with contradictory advice is always a great way to create an appetite for the u-turn measures.
Yep, I find reducing faith in the government and creating massive confusion with contradictory advice is always a great way to create an appetite for the u-turn measures.
It's worked for them already. Twice.
dannyh
Basic fail from you here. Priti Patel would be in charge of the efforts to track you down.
Damn, I didn't realise I was high profile enough for that. As punishment I'd probably be sentenced to a stretch as a Civil Servant in the Home Office.
Oh, hold on, just realised I'm in Scotland with a sane govt who simply ask that we remain sensible and avoid too much contact.
Phew! 🙂
Well, the appeal from retailers to stop panic buying seems to have worked...Waitrose looks like it has been ram-raided
Time ? 2 maybe 3 weeks till the more fortunate workers have burnt through their contingency funds and things start getting really messy ?
Which is why governments are going to need to step in with some form of universal bailout for businesses and/or citizens. If they don't it'll cause economic collapse and that will be just as destructive as the virus. The few 10s of billions the chancellor offered in the budget is going to peanuts compared to the final figure.
Well, the appeal from retailers to stop panic buying seems to have worked…
The inevitable result of spreading rumours via leaks to journalists rather than upfront and officially informing the public. If you think you might be under house arrest for 4 months from some indefinite date in the near future, then it's perfectly logical to rush out and stock up supplies you think you'll need. I'm glad I went shopping yesterday.
On the topic of ramping up ventilator production, is somebody clever having a serious stab at coming up with an agreed upon open source approach? I'm thinking raspberry pi to control it with software that the government or WHO endorses, stuff like rubber tubing from B&Q or whatever, and plans that work with a hobbyists 3d printer for the niggly bits. What is left that's needed? I'm guessing a standardised motor that's powerful enough, plus valves?
Shoot me down if it is a ridiculous idea but interested to know what components we couldn't source quickly.
Dazh missing the entire point.
Even with funding, who is doing the deliveries to keep folk fed?
How do you protect those people and everyone else from each other?
What if you can't afford to stock up in the first place?
Paranoia? It wasn't until I'd started driving I realised that a coffee I'd bought from a Motoways Services today had its lid put on and pushed down with the palm of the servers hand.
I didn't touch it.
Can everyone make sure they have read this letter before posting, ta.
https://www.immunology.org/news/bsi-open-letter-government-sars-cov-2-outbreak-response
This one is a bit scary, in an “America First” sort of a way…
https://www.ft.com/content/cf7ec42a-66bb-11ea-800d-da70cff6e4d3
Donald Trump is an asshole shocker...
Even with funding, who is doing the deliveries to keep folk fed?
Volunteers would be able to manage that. It’s something I’ve already considered doing if it really came down to it.
There’s enough white vans in this country that final mile delivery shouldn’t be a problem in itself.
If **** is really hitting the fan the rest of the supply chain network already exists so you just have those volunteers handling the final delivery straight from the supermarkets. Which also means you can ration with food parcels.
That’s before you get onto the delivery networks that will see a big downturn in business due to us all buying less junk from Amazon.
I’m more worried that food won’t be arriving as imports.
There really is an opportunity here for China to bring Europe away from the USA.
China agrees to supply Italy with 10000 mechanical respirators
Trump tries to steal your Scientists
From Ireland:
https://twitter.com/darreneuronews/status/1239241232309764102?s=21
That is a huge deal, in this of all weeks.
China agrees to supply Italy with 10000 mechanical respirators
<pedantry>They’re ventilators. Respirators are gas masks</pedantry>
IIRC Mindray are Chinese.
Other ventilator manufacturers:
Dräger - Germany
GE - Finland (for some reason)
Hamilton - Switzerland
Not sure about Maquet or Puritan Bennett; the Philips Respironics one never came to market IIRC.
@Fueled Most of the ones on the market are driven by a turbine (if I remember correctly they run constantly producing bias flow, and then speed up for inspiration, with expiration being passive), difficulty would probably be accurate pressure, flow and oxygen measurement, especially when it comes to weaning and spontaneous modes, e.g. PSV.
One for all the “what can the government do during a temporary economic constriction due to a pandemic?” defeatist posters…
https://twitter.com/economics/status/1239225201067515904?s=21
@piemonster No probs, it’s just making my pedantry twitch.
Don’t get me started on the ‘intensive care’ vs ‘intensive therapy’ debate, or refer to it as ‘crit care’ which makes my skin crawl
(For the absence of doubt, it’s intensive care, as in the Faculty of Intensive Care Medicine)
Damn, I didn’t realise I was high profile enough for that.
Out of context you aren't, but if you were the first you would be made an example of. Pour decourager les autres.
Remember it is Cum-Dom-Blo-Jo we are talking about here. It is all about the message and bugger all to do with substance.
We’ve had to break the news to my 90yo dad that he soon might not be able to visit my mum who is in a care home, for potentially four months. He’s so stubborn he would probably try to make the trip but I suspect the home would turn him away at the door.
Oh, and Cum-Dom-Blo-Jo will never let Scotland secede meaningfully.
It's not that they like you or want to keep you, but it will be jolly embarrassing having a successful EU member state on the northern border. Especially as that state would formally have been part of the Reich.
One for all the “what can the government do during a temporary economic constriction due to a pandemic?”
I'm amazed business as usual is still being pursued. How can it for much longer? How long before stock markets are indefinitely suspended? Negative interest rates? Freezing of assets? New laws to control profiteering. Temporary ban of evictions and repossessions. Suspension of laws governing business solvency. Suspension of mortgage and bill repayments? I doubt anything is off the table.
Just spoke to my 72 year old mum, who announced she was going on a coach trip tomorrow 🤦.
Took me and my sister (a nurse) a while to explain why this might be a bad idea.
I live in Ilkley (sometimes referred to as gods waiting room)Loads of old people milling around town in the cafes and shops with no second thought. Tragically, this is just going to jump on them all out of nowhere like Spain and Italy.
Local supermarket in Copenhagen was completely normal today, nothing sold out except hand sanitiser
Tragically, this is just going to jump on them all out of nowhere like Spain and Italy.
Many of those least likely to change their routines may well be those most at risk. As the government moves from “let it spread to gain completely theoretical herd immunity”, to, “lock down for the elderly”, it’s not going to win them over to the changes required. Such mixed messages will just result in, “they don’t know what they’re doing, it’s all a load of stuff and nonsense”.
Took me and my sister (a nurse) a while to explain why this might be a bad idea.
Spoke to my dad today who has Type 2 diabetes, mum with COPD. He said it's ok, they don't go anywhere apart from the supermarket and him to the golf club. Said if there's a lock down that he'll only go to the shops. Told him he might not be allowed to leave the house and that he should plan how to get supplies delivered to them, to which he replied, 'they can't do that, we're not a totalitarian state'. I don't think the penny has dropped yet. At least it means he didn't rush off to the supermarket with everyone else.
Has anyone else been looking at DIY alternatives to off the shelf hand sanitizer? I appreciate washing hands is optimum but for out and about hand cleaning it would be good to hear what all you budding Breaking Bad chefs are upto. Cheers