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Do we have stats yet on the proportion of people left with long covid? As an active person that’s my main concern.
Not sure how active I can claim to be but that's my main concern, though just had my second jab, so need to get that back into perspective. Based on TiReds experience and others at the cycle club I really don't want to risk months off the bike, having lost chunks of the last two years after a couple of accidents.
versus
Do we have stats yet on the proportion of people left with long covid? As an active person that’s my main concern.
ayjaydoubleyou
me too (and still waiting on my first jab).
I don't have the stats and I'd assume (though I haven't gone digging and don't watch TV) that there is a reason for that.
I completely understand your INFORMED opinion/worry... but that is not what the "government" are pushing and you are not the target audience.
It's thought to be 1 in 10 of the symptomatic that have symptoms that persist for more than 3 months (iirc). That ranges from those with loss of smell/taste through to the more serious stuff.
Do we have stats yet on the proportion of people left with long covid? As an active person that’s my main concern.
>Around 1 in 5 respondents testing positive for COVID-19 exhibit symptoms for a period of 5 weeks or longer
>Around 1 in 10 respondents testing positive for COVID-19 exhibit symptoms for a period of 12 weeks or longer
Do we have stats yet on the proportion of people left with long covid? As an active person that’s my main concern.
25% in this household. The concern is actually the number who develop symptoms after the primary infection. My consultant has noted this in her patients. Some had mild infections and recovery, followed by gradual onset. Her own sister is one such patient. I am of the personal opinion that the classic symptoms (fever, headache, URT cough) are all good signs of a successful immune defence. Absence (loss of smell for example) may be predictors of worse to come.
Anyway on the work front, the antibody I have worked on for a year now, was approved today by the EMA for use under a condition that allows agencies to make their own decision (called Article 5(3)). The UK is not bound by this decision.
Good news about sotrovimab - well done TiRed
Nice job TiRed, you said you'd been busy.
Although your absence from here in the last few days has been noted, and we'd appreciate if you could book your leave in future. This is not a formal warning but will remain on your record for six months after which it will be removed as long as no further digressions.
Yours;
Some argumentative virtual cyclists.
Re long covid - my MD was off for 6 months, back at work for 3 months and now on long term sick leave. He was fit, not overweight and had no other risk factors other than age (50).
Dying is not the only risk to assess.
yeah and count youself lucky as AWOL is more normally gross misconduct.
I presume we have him on flexi so he can fit it around the main job. My guess would be that he's pumped in the overtime on here for us over the last year so decided to cash those in for a much needed break.
Still rude not to tell us though... 😜
Given the amount of time he seems to spend on here rather than focussing on his work* I'd be hesitant to take that antibody... 😉
*Pot, Kettle, Black
Are we paying him yet?
Murrey
Re long covid – my MD was off for 6 months, back at work for 3 months and now on long term sick leave. He was fit, not overweight and had no other risk factors other than age (50).
Dying is not the only risk to assess.
That might even wash North of the Border but it isn't on the propaganda list down here with regards to the opposition in England.
"Deaths within 28 days of positive test" is what is on the soundbite menu.
Any attempt by Labour or a joint Labour+ would only result in being accused of scaremongering and "trying to sabotage the huge effort of the NHS and people through this difficult time".
I can see PMQ's and the line Boris will take.
Nice job TiRed, you said you’d been busy.
Although your absence from here in the last few days has been noted, and we’d appreciate if you could book your leave in future. This is not a formal warning but will remain on your record for six months after which it will be removed as long as no further digressions.
Yours;
Some argumentative virtual cyclists.
Who made you the boss? 🤣🤣
his is not a formal warning but will remain on your record for six months after which it will be removed as long as no further digressions.
Genuine LOL there! I have managed to maintain my SPI-M attendance and have automated analyses of the cases-admissions linkage for the local authorities. Not trivial because the ONS local authorities do not map directly to NHS trusts (well Bolton and Bolton NHS Trust do). Also made a few contributions of my own looking at mortality (all good at the moment actually) and European comparisons (UK still a great outlier).
Approval of a new COVID treatment is very pleasing, but this is, sadly, still early in the human-SARS-CoV2 tango, I am afraid to say. Vaccines are helping us catch up with the virus. Treatments might help us get ahead. Future treatments of note are favipiravir (oral, like tamiflu) and the AZ mAb for passive vaccination. If it's fifteen rounds, we're at about Round three.
Who made you the boss?
You take a numbered ticket and await your turn!
Meanwhile in France a 24 year old has developed a inter-connected IT system to track and use up vaccine doses.
https://www.theregister.com/2021/05/21/something_for_the_weekend_/
Just looked at the booster trial that is recruiting, annoyingly you need to be 84 days post second jab to be eligible.
Got 60 days to wait. Wonder if they will still be recruiting then
You take a numbered ticket and await your turn!
Bloody hell, 17 years and my number still hasn't come up! Even the anniversary issue pointed out I'd failed to make the cut as a Big Hitter. Infamy! Infamy!
So Germany has put the UK on their banned list due to the Indian variants. That seems a bit rich politically as we are one of the few places actually sequencing our tests looking for variants at scale.
and yet...Spain will allow visitors from the UK for holidays without a negative PCR test for COVID-19 from Monday.
Is it naive to hope for a global standard on this?
Spain is simply an economic approach. They have many communities on their knees due to a lack of revenue.
Add a crap elitist Govt who are effectively insulated from the madness and this is what you get. They're not too disimilar to the UK in that regard...(Govt corruption, cartels in key industries etc etc).
Interesting that Chris Smith (the Naked Scientist) mentioned on the BBC this morning, that due to hardly any cases of flu around the world, they won't be able to make a proper judgement on the correct vaccine needed for this coming season.
They rely on the season from the other side of the world for the variant. There were no cases in Australia or New Zealand to get this information from. The reason hardly any flu cases - we have been washing hands, wearing masks and keeping distance (this is obvious).
Regarding the 'Long covid' sufferers, having had post viral fatigue syndrome myself (which lasted 5 years), with the extra additions of organs not working properly and other health problems, one really does not want to get this.
Imagine having a 'bank or energy', which can be used for eg - work, play or just normal everyday things, then having to decide where that energy is used up, then it gives a little insight as to what your life maybe like. With this added stress and quite often depression (especially with sporty types), then it's not a life. Not to mention the affects on family and loved ones.
Sorry to sound so depressing but I can't stress how getting Long covid will absolutely change ones life.
So Germany has put the UK on their banned list due to the Indian variants
Cant really blame them. Probably an over response but makes sense to err on the side of caution. If only we had done the same.
Who made you the boss?
There was a vote on the special forum. No, not that one, that's only there to divert people from the fact there's another one for the truly special 😉
Also, (mis)reading on a small phone screen, is it wrong to be a bit WTF at you being disappointed that you aren't being considered as a Big Hitler?
Jamze
Full Memberand yet…Spain will allow visitors from the UK for holidays without a negative PCR test for COVID-19 from Monday.
Is it naive to hope for a global standard on this?
Basically Germany can afford to do it and Spain needs the money. It'll never be a simple medical decision, no more than anything else in the handling of the virus has been, different countries have different requirements and constraints and will approach things differently.
It's the same reason the UK government desperately wants to reopen city centres fully and get people "back to work" ie back into the office, a horrendous amount of our economy is dependent on selling expensive average coffee to people in suits and sky high inner city rents, and our housing market and infrastructure is largely built around squeezing people into a couple of big cities. And nobody's got the imagination or competence to change that as we already knew from the last 20 years of continuing to focus on already-full London, so of course the only thing they can think of is trying to rewind to the end of 2019, even though that was a pretty absurd way to operate a country.
Every country has its own stupidities that they'll continue to protect.
There was a vote on the special forum. No, not that one, that’s only there to divert people from the fact there’s another one for the truly special 😉
Also, (mis)reading on a small phone screen, is it wrong to be a bit WTF at you being disappointed that you aren’t being considered as a Big Hitler?
I knew it!
I had to get a job in the Civil Service so I could be a Little Hitler....🤷♂️
due to hardly any cases of flu around the world, they won’t be able to make a proper judgement on the correct vaccine needed for this coming season.
This is a significant challenge. Vaccine makers chase flu around the hemispheres to make a call on the next big strain. When it's the wrong call, not good. They are normally pretty good, but this year is a problem. I'm also working on an antibody for influenza prophylaxis where vaccines don't work.
PHE Technical briefing document 12 is published here
Page 41 is the page on vaccine effectiveness that the media are excited by. That's good news, because Figure 17 (and my own analysis) shows that the Indian variant is replacing our own home-grown star performer at the same rate that the UK variant replaced the Wuhan (modified) strain. This is evolution in action.
And I don't understand Amber countries. Amber means Stop! in the UK. Not carry on through and hope to get across the junction. We won't be travelling abroad this year, with the exception of a trip to collect Son2 from Ireland next month.
TiRed - could you explain again (sorry) for the hard of understanding, what the actual vaccine is for SARS cov 2 please.
I tried to explain to a relative that they hadn't been given a dose of the virus, but DNA. As a lay person it was tricky for me to give her the info.
Thanks.
NB. As I understand a lot of vaccination/C19 deniers think they are going to be injected with the virus.
Basically Germany can afford to do it and Spain needs the money. It’ll never be a simple medical decision, no more than anything else in the handling of the virus has been, different countries have different requirements and constraints and will approach things differently.
As the famous vengaboys song goes ‘we are going to Berlin’
Yep, oddly though looks like all the flights from June 6 to murcia have been cancelled or fully booked
Amber means Stop!
Well, sort of. Depends whether it's safe to stop, or if its accompanied by a Red light which means prepare to go. 😝
Depends which vaccine. One type is the reverse RNA type; effectively you're injected with a template from which your body can assemble a protein that triggers the immune response. This is the new breed and very exciting development.
Other vaccines use a deactivated version of the virus (aka attenuated) or parts of the virus - there's different ways to do that but in the end it gives the body practise against a version of the virus that can't cause the full illness.
https://www.who.int/news-room/feature-stories/detail/the-race-for-a-covid-19-vaccine-explained
TiRed – could you explain again (sorry) for the hard of understanding, what the actual vaccine is for SARS cov 2 please.
I've used these pics before to refresh my understanding/chat with folks...
Thanks - theotherjonv and Jamze.
Well, sort of
...is the answer and how it's set up to based on "advice". You can book a flight, the flights are going / returning and you have to isolate during which one of Patels enforcers might knock on your door.
If gov.uk were serious they'd have stopped the flights for anything other than a green country, end of. #economy #airlines
If gov.uk were serious they’d have stopped the flights for anything other than a green country
Agreed. Or had the Police knocking on doors properly enforcing the isolation period, which would have put off a lot of the casual chancers.
That assumes that the Police have the resources, or maybe it could be delegated to Border force, assuming they have the resources. And before anyone gets upset at the idea of the Police enforcing laws, I don't care 😉
@bunnyhop you know those oranges that have been spike with cloves? Well that’s the virus. The cloves are the spike protein that hooks the virus onto the surface of our cells.
Of the vaccines:
Pfizer and Moderna give immediate instructions to make the cloves. The information is not incorporated into human DNA
AZ and J&J give the DNA inside another harmless virus that then codes to make the cloves. This DNA is incorporated into human DNA (like a huge amount of junk DNA already there).
Novovax and Sanofi/GSK give the cloves. The novovax one strings them together to make little flowers.
Sinovac gives weakened virus.
Wow! Thanks TiRed.
It's so interesting, yet so complicated.
I think all the scientists are amazing.
A reminder that there were choices, and and at many steps along the way, “we” made the wrong ones in the UK… this was one of the biggest early on…
https://twitter.com/bbcr4today/status/1238390547783528448?s=21
At least our part time PM was on the case…
https://twitter.com/michaellcrick/status/1396404772270346247?s=21
Although last year the story was he was already paid, and had spent, the money, while he was scheming to become PM after his referendum win. He was working on it while neglecting his PM role, during a pandemic, because it was late and paid for.
Make the data fit the policy …
Downing Street leaned on Public Health England not to publish crucial data on the spread of the new Covid variant in schools, documents seen by the Observer have suggested. Scientists, union officials and teachers said that the lack of transparency was “deeply worrying”.
The focus of their anger concerns the pre-print of a PHE report that included a page of data on the spread of the India Covid-19 variant in schools. But when the report was published on Thursday 13 May, the page had been removed. It was the only one that had been removed from the pre-print. Days later, the government went ahead with its decision to remove the mandate on face coverings in English schools.
I think all the scientists are amazing
Blushing now. But the truth is you only really understand things clearly if you can explain to those without the deep expertise. The principles of evolutionary biology, epidemiology, immunology, vaccinology, they aren’t complex. The details certainly are (and sometimes largely unknown).
Replacement of a viral strain by another that has sharper elbows and can spread a little faster, is entirely expected. There will be another along in a few months. We have hints of which ones seem to escape the protection from the vaccine a d past infection. Those cloves can change their surface very easily, whilst still remaining sticky to human cells. We make antibodies to coat them and stop sticking, but sometimes those antibodies stop sticking and can’t get in the way. Not yet, but the South African strain has led the viral charge with one nasty change.
And before anyone gets upset at the idea of the Police enforcing laws, I don’t care
The police should be upholding the law, enforcement is the court's job (mainly). The problems creep in when PC Blogs makes up laws or interprets guidance as law. If you or I were that incompetent we would expect to be sacked for misconduct.
The police should be upholding the law, enforcement is the court’s job (mainly). The problems creep in when PC Blogs makes up laws or interprets guidance as law. If you or I were that incompetent we would expect to be sacked for misconduct.
Apologies for using the wrong terminology and causing you to go off on a tangent
One lockdown sinner repents. Well perhaps not, but he has admitted to errors in his understanding of the COVID epidemic. As I said many times, the Gompertz equation is a fine descriptor of an emergent epidemic, but the key determinants (transmission and susceptibility) are correlated.
“The biggest one was declaring, in a somewhat belligerent way, that things would end in the United States by the end of August. I feel really bad about that,” he said. “I don’t think scientists should make declarations like that. It was a pugilistic, a combative argument. People said to me I was wrong, and I thought, I’m not going to back down. And it’s stupid. It was not the right way to behave.”
But he is a proper scientist.
So the clear communication is going well......
BBC News - Covid: People in surge areas warned 'stay local'
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-57232728
So the clear communication is going well……
BBC News – Covid: People in surge areas warned ‘stay local’
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-57232728/blockquote >Backdoor local lockdown as it's not just about staying local, also recommends not meeting indoors.
Guidance != law, so pretty sure the hospitality sector will give that a big finger.
My base office is meant to be in Leicester, never been in as they've been in some form of lockdown for 15 months now
you have to isolate during which one of Patels enforcers might knock on your door.
Just as long as it's not the hidwous witch herself.
Guidance != law, so pretty sure the hospitality sector will give that a big finger.
Back to the mistakes of early 2020.
Utterly pointless waste of text, if these areas had been following wider guidelines they wouldn't have the case rates they do, the places in the North West have been at the top of the case rates on a regular basis. Its got to be unambiguous and properly publicised. To be honest i think we're well beyond local lock downs, people will just go out of area or just ignore the advice.
I don't think the North will take another set of restrictions after last year, we had a couple of months at most without stringent restrictions in place. They didn't really make much difference, it was the national lockdowns and restrictions that brought the case rate down.
It's a complete farce. The relaxation was "irreversible" so now they need to reverse it, they have to pretend they aren't.
Have we got enough data in from Bolton yet to see if hospital admissions are responding to the increase in infection rates at a "manageable" level?
If vaccination has disrupted the number of admissions, this may not be as serious as infection rates suggest.
"IF" doing a lot of heavy lifting there
... still not been contacted about bringing second vaccination forward. It's booked for two weeks tomorrow which is the 12 week point, booked with the first vacc on the NHS site. So I'm not stressing, but it's not exactly what was communicated by Johnson 10 days ago
It was always the case that vaccination is expected to reduce admission and deaths, with a reduction in transmission being an added bonus. The opening up of Lockdown is predicated on that in some part, so you would expect to see cases going up, but relative inaction if admissions and deaths remain at a level which "protects the NHS". Only however, if new variants do not bypass the current/future vaccinations capability.
I suspect the next problem we'll see is a variant that renders current vaccinations ineffective and / or rising cases of Flu within Flu season which will add to the NHS burden.
It’s a complete farce. The relaxation was “irreversible” so now they need to reverse it, they have to pretend they aren’t.
AKA a U-Turn, who'd have thought...
Only however, if new variants do not bypass the current/future vaccinations capability.
Well we are offering up a huge "filter" of half vaccinated people for the virus to test itself against.
To the people waiting on second jabs, I'd advise getting pro-active. Nine weeks after my first AZ, I started making phone calls yesterday to find I'd vanished off the system. Now booked in for Sunday. My 79 year old London based father had a similar experience. We'd both organised our first jabs at GP text prompts (thus first jab only, not both booked simultaneously as with the NHS texts that came shortly afterwards). Neither of us are the worried well types who normally badger GP surgeries, which may be a factor.
Have we got enough data in from Bolton yet to see if hospital admissions are responding to the increase in infection rates at a “manageable” level?
Slight upturn in Bolton but below prediction, nothing in Bedfordshire or Blackburn. (yet) Admissions data on the govt. website is very lagged and I have yet to bash the most up to date NHS data. Public domain plots from https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Is there a way to examine that data by age group TiRed?
Wondering, specifically, if the uptick in cases in Bedford is in younger people than the uptick in Bolton. Same goes for the (modest) uptick in admissions in Bolton... is there a way to see the age profile of that?
Interesting graphs. The messages from Bolton were older hospital admissions amongst the unvaccinated. Is there a difference in vaccine uptake in Bedford?
In unrelated issues, news from Bahrain about the Indian variant and the Sinopharm vaccine seems to suggest it isn’t a very good vaccine.
… still not been contacted about bringing second vaccination forward.
You're only being asked to have a 2nd vaccination earlier, if you're one of the priority groups. If you're an otherwise healthy person >50 there's probably no need to change from 12 weeks.
Is there a way to examine that data by age group TiRed?
Plenty are looking... I do not have all the age-breakdown data.
if you’re one of the priority groups. If you’re an otherwise healthy person >50 there’s probably no need to change from 12 weeks
AZ and 53 here, I've already been asked to book early. I've declined as I've already had COVID. I likely do not require the second injection. I booked the first through the NHS website, not my GP practice, if that makes a difference.
Mrs K got asked to come in for her second yesterday, about 7 weeks I think, she's 42 but is a Lupus patient.
Regarding Bolton in particular the case rate increase is in areas with low vaccine uptake which may result in higher hospital admission than in an area with a spike and higher vaccination rates. Bolton is probably worst case. Hopefully even with the vaccine uptake lower we'll still see relatively reduced admissions. The question about age above is also very relevant. Either way we're current a long way from NHS saturation in the region, last time Bolton rates were greater than 1000 per 100,000 population and many surrounding boroughs were at 800+, without a vaccine program, at the moment Bolton is 300ish with most surrounding boroughs sub 100. It's a very different playing field to last time this happened. Doesn't mean it won't get out of control again but the odds are stacked more in our favour this time with regard to minimising hospital admissions.
Thanks for the graphs again TiRed.
It’s a very different playing field to last time this happened. Doesn’t mean it won’t get out of control again but the odds are stacked more in our favour this time
And that's the government's dilemma, in many ways. How long do we ignore the warning signs before taking action when the vaccine should protect the NHS enough on a wider level.
And yes, I know the danger is the more it circulates the greater the risk of a vaccine evading mutation. But as a "pro-lockdown when necessary " kind of guy, the thing is going to be transmitting forever now - realistically, can we keep endlessly hitting the lockdown button - especially when we saw local lockdowns fail to be lifted throughout last year? They just didn't work.
realistically, can we keep endlessly hitting the lockdown button
If we can avoid this by containing infection while we finish of vaccinating our population, that we seem like a win to me. Might have to still get a proper travel quarantine put in place while other countries catch up of course.
If we can avoid this by containing infection while we finish of vaccinating our population, that we seem like a win to me. Might have to still get a proper travel quarantine put in place while other countries catch up of course.
Fair points I think.
So, who's betting on the next relaxations on 21st June?
In unrelated issues, news from Bahrain about the Indian variant and the Sinopharm vaccine seems to suggest it isn’t a very good vaccine.
Surprised? I'm not.
Usual cheap Chinese copies and untrustworthy data coming out of China.
So, who’s betting on the next relaxations on 21st June?
I’m now half expecting all the “relaxations” to happen then, but a whole new swath of contradictory “advice” to be issued, and people effected by the virus “blamed” for either not following the advice, or knowing someone not yet vaccinated.
The Bolton admissions data that is due to be released on Thursday will show admissions are increasing. The important point is whether they are increasing as quickly as the cases.
Clearly Bolton has more admissions than last week as discussed in this article...
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-manchester-57242368
The next question will be whether deaths increase, and how quickly they increase. We will have to wait a couple of weeks for that to become clear.
I've asked this question on anotherthread but wonder if this might actually be the better place for it.
Like a lot of people, I’ve had the first jab and was given an appointment for round 2 12 weeks away.
They’re now asking me to come back early for that second jab.
However, figures from the bmj earlier this year suggest efficacy of 55% if the second jab is after 6 weeks and 81% if after 12 weeks.
Has anyone seen numbers for waits between 6 and 12 weeks?
Regarding lockdown easing and cases not causing as many hospitalisations/deaths - one thing I don't see being talked about is how long covid affects decision making. How is considered as a medical issue?
Are people with long covid hospitalised (I have no idea). And is it not more common in younger people? Is that because it would have killed an older person? if it is more common in younger folk but doesn't lead to hospitalisation, then is it not considered serious enough to keep the interventions? As basing lockdown easing on de-linking hospitalisations/deaths and numbers vaccinated (going older > younger) would not take it into consideration?
Quite a few ifs there!
Imagine having a ‘bank or energy’, which can be used for eg – work, play or just normal everyday things, then having to decide where that energy is used up, then it gives a little insight as to what your life maybe like.
That pretty much sums up how i've been for 10 weeks now, following my first AZ vaccine jab.
Tired, following on from your post.....
AZ and J&J give the DNA inside another harmless virus that then codes to make the cloves. This DNA is incorporated into human DNA (like a huge amount of junk DNA already there).
Is there any study on how this will effect the next generation? If it is incorporated into our dna, does this mean we can pass the code to our children? Could they be given partial code if they only get given half a sequence of dna from both parents? Tin foil hat on but could there be repercussions from getting random bits of foreign dna from either parents?
Cheers in advance, surprised singletrack towers hasn’t started putting ads on your posts, just because they know how read they are on here ( tin foil hat off!)
M
NS - I'm so sorry.
Hopefully in time things will get better.
One thing I felt was that I wasn't improving, however friends and people who hadn't seen me for a while, did see an improvement.
I'm 53, had first AZ on 18 March at local GP surgery, after receiving text ping.
Just got text to book second jab, which is now set for next week, which will be about 11 weeks after the first.
Booking first jab required phoning GP and nearly 30 mins in the phone queue. Big improvement this time, with a link to booking site, all sorted in a minute or two.
Local area, Ryedale, just had our first case today after 10 day stetch of zero cases (pop about 55K).
Tcomc1000
The vital dna is not included into anyone's genome.
The virus like most human viruses (retroviruses like hiv are one of the very few that can embed it's coding into the human genome) can infect the cells and induce replication of more viruses which then trigger the immune response.
It is extremely unlikely that the viruses used here could induce the viral genome to be incorporated into a humans dna. No more than a normal cold virus could. They do not contain the proteins that allow the back coding like hiv does.
I wouldn't worry about it at all and the mrna vaccines do not either. If it was as simple as that you would be seeing some truly unbelievable advances in medicine through gene therapies.
Cheers Tired.....
Well not really-I am now running out of excuses to the wife who wants a third child and your Sir, were my only hope!:)
M
I am now running out of excuses to the wife who wants a third child and your Sir, were my only hope!:)
Tell her to be careful what she wishes for.
A colleague was persuaded to try for a third. First scan revealed it was triplets. I think they had to take him straight from gynaecology to resus!
Don’t even joke about it, god I would check myself straight in for basket weaving!
And apologies and thanks to graham for the reply:)
Was Graham, but as stated there is no integration, the virus dna floats around in the cell nucleus. A nice article below on wiki on past integrations, and how some endogenous viral reactivation is noted in some species (koalas), but only speculation in humans. The AZ and other adenovirus vectors cannot replicate and can’t be incorporated into germline dna. They are really just capsules to carry the spike dna. Not that it should matter, there’s already enough in there to be concerned! Isn’t ignorance bliss?
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Endogenous_retrovirus