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Most of the population has had a first jab.
Just over 50% have had the first vaccination. In my view, that isn’t ’most’ of the population
Most of the population has had a first jab.
Also there were only 7 covid deaths today.
There is zero chance of the NHS being overwhelmed now.
Why are we waiting two weeks still to open more of the economy? Businesses are closing daily…
Just over half the population have had one jab.
Deaths are averaging 20, one low day by itself is a bit naive.
Infection rates are down to levels seen last summer. Before they surged again after a variant.
Most at risk businesses are still getting support with furlough etc.
Be patient please.
Why are we waiting two weeks still to open more of the economy? Businesses are closing daily…
I’d have thought it was obvious.....
Why are we waiting two weeks still to open more of the economy? Businesses are closing daily…
Did you miss this around 4 posts above yours?
They’ve just gone back into a form of lockdown due to a surge in cases https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2021-04-30/oregon-covid-surge-vaccine
45% of Oregon residents have one vaccine shot and 26% have had two.
Caution still required, please keep up at the back. We can cope with Brexit ass-hattery but viral mistakes shouldn't be repeated.
The truthful answer is because exposure and incubation times are such that if there is to be a rebound after the mid April opening up it will take 2-3 weeks before that starts to show. Counting our chickens after 2 weeks is too soon; I honestly think that the rates will continue to stay low or at worst flatten and opening up earlier would be OK, but I'm still in favour of caution. In an exponential epidemic, when a mistake costs (based on past evidence) about 4-5x the reparation (ie locking down a week too late means needing to stay in lockdown for 4-5 weeks) I can understand why we're not risking at all.
More prosaically - you don't send the fire brigade home when the fire's mostly out, or take your parachute off when you're almost on the ground.
More prosaically – you don’t send the fire brigade home when the fire’s mostly out, or take your parachute off when you’re almost on the ground.
Well put. +1.
theotherjonv is spot on. We have to wait a bit to check the result of the recent relaxation before continuing.
Just anecdotally, daughter's school has just announced it's first positive test since they went back. The virus is still out there, kids and any parents under 40 won't be vaccinated yet.
There's a reason the experts want us to take it slowly and carefully.
I think where we are now is the height of our freedoms this year.
Maybe a short dive into some travelling and indoor socialising, but restrictions pulled back in for the winter.
Reading articles of an upcoming economic boom. When? 2-3 years time?
stcolin
Free MemberReading articles of an upcoming economic boom. When? 2-3 years time?
TBH this is mostly about the crappy reporting. There will be a boom this quarter, almost certainly, but that just means rapid growth. It doesn't mean it'll cancel out the shrink/recession. If your leg dropped off yesterday, you don't wildly celebrate today's longer toenails even though it means you have slightly more leg than yesterday's record low. We don't need a boom, we need a decade of sustained excellent economic performance- to grow a new leg.
I mean, it's good news, it's just not the good news we need- especially after our shithouse failed recovery from the 2008 crisis, we'd already had a lost decade even before the pandemic and brexit. (we're something like 20% down on where we were in 2008, in dollar terms- we were still nowhere close to "recovery" before we got into 2 new crises at the same time)
Also, the boom will be very unevenly distributed- some sectors will do well, some people will do well, we'll hear a lot about it as the closest thing to an economic good news story there is and it'll drown out the much more boring story of all the other people who're not doing well.
Lot of disaster fetishists here I've come to realise.
Lots of disaster denialists too. I do think we could open up faster as things are going really well. But that does depend on the govt being able to react rapidly if things changed for the worst and they’ve shown little ability for that thus far.
But that does depend on the govt being able to react rapidly if things changed for the worst and they’ve shown little ability for that thus far.
True, but in fairness the way we would see whether rates are increasing is by measuring the rate and see whether it's increased, and so the feedback loop is not whether something's happening, it's whether it's already happened. Bit like my wife and the heating.
Me: must stop the wife putting the heating on now it's May
Later: I'm getting warm. I wonder if....
Later still: bugger, it's already on and has been for half an hour. Is there any way to get that gas back?
TBH this is mostly about the crappy reporting. There will be a boom this quarter, almost certainly, but that just means rapid growth. It doesn’t mean it’ll cancel out the shrink/recession.
I don’t think I’ve seen a forecast that has us reaching our pre-pandemic economic ‘size’ before the end of 2022.
Although I’ve also not (last 4 weeks or so) recently seen forecasts for both the size of the economy and unemployment levels that are quite as doom laden some are expecting. There was certainly a lot of headlines last year people latched onto and have stuck with, but normal rules quite often don’t always apply at the minute.
Not trying to ignore the real and large scale harm caused, it’s definitely happened to a lot of people, including a number on the forum. But is it going to be as bad as some are expecting?
In 2019 70-80% of my households income was derived from events. It's been something of a shit show although we have been very lucky to retain employment. But, one of the events my partner works on put tickets on sale this week and sold what would normally take 20 weeks worth in 6 hours. Theres still some huge risks involved with potential future waves and limitations on how much income can be generated due to the capacity restructuring they're currently working to, but there is a pent up demand that will drive some economic activity.
theotherjonv, with the fastest plausible doubling rate at least two weeks, we’d have lots of time to respond. The problem last autumn was the govt arguing with the scientists for weeks and weeks and preferring to pile up the bodies instead.
Just anecdotally, daughter’s school has just announced it’s first positive test since they went back. The virus is still out there, kids and any parents under 40 won’t be vaccinated yet.
There's another group too, who might they be...schools are safe, schools are safe, no evidence of spread in schools
The problem last autumn was the govt
You could have stopped there. The government is responsible for lot of the problems we are facing due to their appalling leadership.
And talk of economic growth now is measured against the position we were in this time last year, mid crash. Of course it will look good. But not pre pandemic good.
theotherjonv, with the fastest plausible doubling rate at least two weeks, we’d have lots of time to respond.
No way will the govt move away from the 5-week gap, small steps exit from lockdown now. At the time they described it as 4 weeks to see the impact, a week to crunch the numbers and make a decision.
Lot of disaster fetishists here I’ve come to realise.
This thread started with that exact accusation levelled at people who were concerned about this virus. How did things turn out?
The five-week decision cycle is one of the things that the government have got correct. It has been a very expensive lesson. The virus cares nor for the desired cycle time and there is a reason why things have gone the way they have. Both down as well as up. Epidemic time is not movie time. Two weeks now compared with the 18-month cycle. Patience is important. A lack of patience cost more than 25k lives over Christmas (and I am being conservative here).
The recent data on single dose Pfizer at 12 weeks has reinforced what I said previously. AZ probably could be a one dose vaccine (like J&J). Pfizer is definitely not in the 70+ age group.
From the BBC feed:
Sunday Times reports secondary school children to be offered single Pfizer dose from September.
Tired - why do you think the az vaccine could be one dose?
Is that based on an acceptable level of protection (~60%) after one dose.
Do you think the second dose increases protection duration? Or based on the need for potential booster doses the second dose might not be valuable?
Just interested in your thinking and reasoning.
I'm really interested in the mix and match studies going on at the moment as my feeling is that a mixed vaccination should give more varied protection hopefully meaning variant protection
Absolutely agree with the above, much better to come out slowly than risk it now. Yes, some businesses are going to not survive but if we trigger a 4th lockdown they wouldn't anyway and more would be put at risk. We're in our situation now due to decisions made last year, we cannot change them but we can learn from them.
Just spoken to my Dad, who lives in southern Oregon, USA.
They’ve just gone back into a form of lockdown due to a surge in cases> https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2021-04-30/oregon-covid-surge-vaccine < 45% of Oregon residents have one vaccine shot and 26% have had two. Is this likely to happen here after May 17th?
There will be an increase. possibly a short, sharp surge, but it won't be bad enough to force another lockdown. Where we have to be incredibly careful is to make sure our underlying infection rates are as low as possible going into September/October. The last thing we want is to head into the winter with the virus and any new variants sitting in the population ready to run amok. It's why I'm so worried about everyone clamouring for foreign holidays and bringing back new variants. I've heard people saying that the NHS coped this winter so can cope again, completely ignoring that it only just coped and the fatigue from that superhuman effort means it may not cope again with the same pressures.
What we do now has serious effects for what happens in 6 months time.
Looking at the German numbers I can see no way out of this until children are vaccinated. The incidence in 0-5 is 141, 5-15 230 and 15-34 232. Beyond that it goes down much as you'd expect in relation to the proportion of the age groups vaccinated.
https://interaktiv.tagesspiegel.de/lab/karte-sars-cov-2-in-deutschland-landkreise/
As soon as we open up the virus will take off again in the non-vaccinated age group and as it mutates within that age group a variant that can infect vaccinated people risks appearing.
There's also likely to be poor vaccine uptake when we get down to the youngest adults as people do their own personal risk : reward calculations (as seen already on this thread). And the question "would you vaccinate your kids?". Happily I won't have to make that decision , junior is old enough to decide for himself and I'm pretty sure will be queueing up as soon as he can.
Hopefully teenage school age kids can be vaccinated late August, early September. I don’t picture primary school age kids getting it this year, beyond perhaps those with pre-existing conditions.
EDIT: Oh, and in answer to your question, yes.
Anyone got anything more up to date than this from 23/3 (I've found more recent articles but they refer back to the same info):
on the state of vaccine trials on children in various age groups?
@TiRed what are you thoughts on the triple variant from Maharashtra that now has a toe hold over here?
Are we all doomed?
with the fastest plausible doubling rate at least two weeks
I'd like to see the evidence for that 'plausible' but OK, some whataboutery.
We know what exponential means, we also know there's an incubation rate before things start to show either as symptoms or on testing.
So by the time we see things showing, then it's already happening / happened. And if you wait 2-3 weeks to see if that has doubled, then you're already into the next cycle and more are going to show again.... and then you have to stamp down. A week lost is a month to repair.
So do we look at the tests on a weekly basis and react then? Open up this week, and then if they have increased or even flattened (potentially showing an inflexion point) then lock down again?
Same as the decision to open up can't be rushed, the decision to lock down again shouldn't be, pissing people about is almost as harmful to the businesses that eg: have bookings, etc. to manage as staying in restrictions for 2 more weeks to be certain that opening is the right thing to do.
I've criticised the Gov time and again, but this time I think they're getting it right. Maybe overcautious, but the risk-reward suggests caution is good. Don't chuck it away now through impatience.
Is that based on an acceptable level of protection (~60%) after one dose.
This. The minimum requirement for protection is 50%. AZ achieves this after only one dose. Pfizer does not. There is an age-related response for sure, but the benchmark for a vaccine is met at one dose.
what are you thoughts on the triple variant from Maharashtra that now has a toe hold over here?
The combination of mutations has probably already been noted in the UK already. Note that there are over 500 recorded spike protein mutations, having multiple variants is nothing exceptional. The UK variant has 22 changes from Wild Type. I don't think we are doomed, but there is evidence that at least one strain is taking off in the UK (in frequency) against a falling background level of infection. We are looking harder at this virus than any previously. It should come as no surprise that we are seeing things.
We are not doomed.
Cheers, i assumed it would be that.
Do you think the government would dare though based on the populations assessment of efficacy between the vaccinations? People will want the highest protection they can if offered
I’ve criticised the Gov time and again, but this time I think they’re getting it right.
This.
Do you think the government would dare though based on the populations assessment of efficacy between the vaccinations?
No, they've already bent the Pfizer label enough already. I personally would not be too concerned about giving a second dose to those who have previously had the infection. these boosters are potent is would appear (which is how natural coronavirus infections work too).
Ta
The roadmap is the most sensible thing the government has allowed itself to be talked into, and the five-week staging is pretty much spot on. There is also an argument that giving the NHS the chance to vaccinate down to 35-40s before the gates are thrown open will also be a massive advantage going into the summer.
Everything is geared to being in a good place from September onwards so that any booster campaign is well underway before numbers start to rise properly again.
At this point last time around we were about to 'eat out to help out' and have unrestricted mixing even in areas where the virus had not been properly suppressed. End result was problems almost immediately in some regions.
Lot of
disaster fetishistsrealists here I’ve come to realise.
FTFY
At this point last time around we were about to ‘eat out to help out’
I'd forgotten about that. Amazing when you look back 🤦🏻♂️
At this point last time around we were about to ‘eat out to help out’ and have unrestricted mixing even in areas where the virus had not been properly suppressed
Well, on 21st June we may well be back to that, without the government incentives and with the under 30s not yet vaccinated? The impact should be a lot less this time around, but I'm still a little nervous about how the great British public will deal with any remaining social distancing guidance as we rush towards the summer holiday season, and then into what I guess will be anticipated to be a normal return to school and university in the autumn.
A local car boot sale reopened this morning, just a fairly small one compared to some round here. We rode past at 8.30ish - 1/2 mile queues in all directions (and it's next to a busy traffic light controlled crossroads), they were waving people away as the were full, but you could see there was no chance of anyone being able to social distance. I feel for the organisers, but just because you can doesn't mean that you should.
The minimum requirement for protection is 50%. AZ achieves this after only one dose. Pfizer does not.
@tired I thought the Pfizer/Moderna was 80% effective after a single dose?
And...
https://www.bmj.com/content/373/bmj.n979
My understanding of the Israel data is a that single dose results in MORE infections in first week (assumed to be either behaviour change, and/or exposure to infected people when getting the vaccine), the same as non-vaccinated in second week, and hugely better protection in the third week. So it depends how you cut the data as to whether you declare it effective or not. There’s no good data over a much longer period (that I’ve seen) yet. So, a hunch as to whether single shot useful. Just like the hunch to extend the period between shots that was taken here in the winter (that seems to have been called correctly in hindsight).
The hunch I’d go for? Single shot to cover as many teenage school age kids as possible before September return… and then offer them boosters once they are “spare”, even if that is months later.
@rotorstern
@mrkebowski You would think these people from point 2 only have to look at what is happening in India right now to see the consequences of not having strict lockdowns.
To see how these people “think” you only need to visit any of the Vaccination posts on the NHS FB page where the anti lockdown/anti vax movement are blaming the crisis in India on the vaccine itself.
PHE data shows that in the 70+ there is no protection from one dose of Pfizer at the 12week time point. I’m sure the boost will improve matter dramatically. But the protection from one injection wanes. I think the four week gap was prudent. The AZ vaccine has impressive single dose efficacy.
Near term protection of at least 50%, the minimum for registration, is noted for both after a single dose, regardless of olwhen one starts the clock post dose.
Is that no protection from symptomatic infection, or no protection from serious disease/death? Any stats on younger age groups? I had a pretty strong reaction to the Moderna so feel like I should have a reasonable level of protection, but my second jab is scheduled 12 weeks after the first, when does the protection start to diminish?
I had a pretty strong reaction to the Moderna so feel like I should have a reasonable level of protection
That “feeling” doesn’t match the science, IIRC. Hopefully someone else better able to explain it to you will do so… but my lay persons understanding is that an obvious “reaction”, or not, doesn’t correlate with level of protection given.
It’s protection against needing a test and subsequently being pcr-positive. So really symptomatic infection.
....So hopefully still a good level of protection against hospitalisation/death?
All the info on that here:
….So hopefully still a good level of protection against hospitalisation/death?
Oh yes... ANY antibodies on board before the virus comes (and it will) are protective against morbidity. This is what really matters most. Natural coronavirus infections provide a boost in antibodies on a regular basis. I don't think this one will be very different over time. It's just the first experience has been a little different to the others for most of us (babies and infants aside).
Got a text today to go online and book second jab. All booked for tomorrow. Exactly 10 weeks since first.
I'll need to start looking after my grandson soon to help my son/ his partner out.
Still very nervous about doing so (not for me but for my old mum) but will make sure my son/partner do at least a couple of tests a week, as am I already. Can't practically test my grandson that much (just over a year old) so im figuring on testing those around him as a test by proxy if that makes sense?
On top of that I want mum to have a relationship with her great grandson. She's hardly seen him at all.other than in pics/ videos. Ditto myself.
How can we be able to travel abroad safely this summer?
For example, if one wants to visit some resort in Tenerife, which will also be visited by other holiday makers from many different countries, all mixing in restaurants, cafes, bars and accommodation. Surely it's a recipe for different variants to take hold, no matter how much distancing, mask wearing or hand washing that goes on.
People may be travelling from say India or Brazil via other countries (not directly as this may not be allowed) to get to a destination of their choice.
It's not something I'm prepared to chance.
I'm seeing far too many people already thinking this pandemic is over and deciding there aren't any rules anymore (eg going into each others houses, not wearing masks, going out in massive groups).
Pleased to hear social distancing is likely to be sacked off in June, I'd be pissed though if it had to come back because folk want to go abroad on holiday and import it back into the country.
^^ I'm going to find it really difficult to be physically close to people tbh. It's become my default. It has to change though so I'll need to adapt.
Yes, hoping we don't import a new variant at some stage. I'm just forcing myself to be optimistic about that as there is simply nothing I can do to change that situation.
^^ I’m going to find it really difficult to be physically close to people tbh. It’s become my default. It has to change though so I’ll need to adapt.
If you're happy with that then keep doing so, it'll still help the cause I suppose. Nobody will be forcing you to suddenly start seeing people again just those who want to will be allowed.
I’m going to find it really difficult to be physically close to people tbh. It’s become my default.
Had a bit of a wake up call today - saw a club mate by chance while out with the wife. Before the pandemic I had a couple of crashes that had already made me nervous about riding around other people, then social distancing kicked in. Even when club rides were allowed again last year I really couldn't see that riding in groups for 2-3 hours was a wise thing to be doing, especially as it was pretty obvious from private FB posts that some club mates were not following the "rules" for rides or their private lives, so it's nearly 2 years since I went on a club ride, or rode with more than one other trusted person.
He started asking me about how I was coping with things and when I might be back on club rides again, and the panicked and waffly answer I produced clearly didn't convince either of us. Certainly not him, as he works in mental health and really can't be fooled.
I clearly need to get my anxiety issues back under control
Everyone will take their own time to get back to being tolerant of people being close.
I didn't like it before hand so bloody hate it now. Don't mind people i know so much but it's the randoms i don't like, good job we rarely went to pubs and restaurants really.
Will no doubt be heading into London again but will be fine with wearing a mask (plus it saves the lovely London black snot that you get after a day)
MCTD - I think it will be a long road back to normality for a lot of people. Last summer when I had to go back into work I found it very hard to start with. Being double jabbed definately helps.
poopscoop - I'm the same. Not feeling happy about getting close to others, especially inside.
Am not especially keen to catch the 8:56 into Waterloo if I am honest - although this is rare. In fact Not that keen to head in to the new office (Brentford). But I'm not that bothered about crowds. At least one infection and the vaccination, I feel pretty protected from serious COVID now (well sort of - 10 mile walk today and thought about a ride). I will be commuting by bike/trike anyway.
New variants with demonstrable immune escape might prove a challenge to my mobility. But I've been happy working at home and know that this could continue as needed. Mrs TiRed is keen to see the back of me, however.
Are people still sharing content provided by that quack snake oil salesman Ivor Cummins?!? Just buy his shit if you want, but stop sharing his content here, please.
bring double jabbed definately helps.
Yeah, that's my mental safe point. Due mid June, should be effective mid July. Wishing my life away....
Everyone will take their own time to get back to being tolerant of people being close.
Really? Plenty of people don’t or won’t have that choice.
I have been working (mostly not working) from home as has my partner. I have a shoot coming up that will mean for once I’m not paying the mortgage out of savings. Will be in a big spacious studio and all but one attending will have had at least their first jab. I don’t really have a choice not to do it but I’m reasonably comfortable with the situation, some have had to go against their gut feelings every day to simply keep their heads above water.
If I could keep only one thing from all of this it would be social distancing. It's been absolute bliss having lots of personal space that's not invaded every few seconds, quiet shops, not fighting for space in parks and everyone generally being aware of each other. But then I've always found social settings tough when it's busy, crowds do my head in.
Even given our very mild restrictions/social distancing restrictions over here in Sydney, it was still quite challenging to adjust when they were gradually lifted - and I'm still not there yet.
I still remove myself from or avoid situations that make me feel a little anxious - cafe's with too many people, a particularly busy aisle in a supermarket etc.
There is going to be inevitable conflict between people who are at opposite ends of the social distancing spectrum on a daily basis. Even here I've had to ask people behind me in a queue to "take a step back please" a couple of times. Fortunately there was no argument/confrontation about it, but I do wonder what's going to happen in the UK, where there are perhaps more people at those opposite ends of the spectrum, and emotions are running that much higher.
So my advice is to accept that not everyone is going to act how you want them to act, and become comfortable with adjusting your own behavior accordingly. Sounds easy, but what it means in reality is that if somebody is behaving like a dick - you just leave them to it and remove yourself from that situation. Hard if you really want a Greggs sausage roll, but the bloke behind you in the queue is breathing down your neck.
So my advice is to accept that not everyone is going to act how you want them to act, and become comfortable with adjusting your own behavior accordingly.
That's how I'm hoping I'll handle it. Though just discovered that MrsMC has booked tickets for the Edinburgh Tattoo in August for a long weekend family get away. 🤦♂️ I think my problems start closer to home than I realised....
I’d forgotten about that. Amazing when you look back 🤦🏻♂️
Ah the initial what was it disaster ‘fappers’ always gives me a giggle.
Posting as a reminder covid is still out there. My daughter's school is having an outbreak. 4 year groups now isolating at home so 240 kids missing another 2 weeks school.
If I could keep only one thing from all of this it would be social distancing. It’s been absolute bliss having lots of personal space that’s not invaded every few seconds, quiet shops, not fighting for space in parks and everyone generally being aware of each other. But then I’ve always found social settings tough when it’s busy, crowds do my head in.
Just give up washing,then people will give you more space 🙂
Ah the initial what was it disaster ‘fappers’ always gives me a giggle.
Yeah, but it was overexaggerated wasn't it. I mean some folks were talking about quarter to half a million deaths, and we've only had 130,000.
(not me, but a FB acquaintance of mine, from their protected safe rural retirement bubble who's still annoyed they couldn't have friends round to dinner last year...... I just don't know what moon they're wired to?)
If I could keep only one thing from all of this it would be social distancing.
Good luck with that, Boris is turning it off soon. Sometimes it doesn’t even matter than it exists - in a distanced queue yesterday I stepped back to allow a guy to walk away from a register and the woman’s behind my stepped in front. I reckon the future Is the equivalent of driving around motorways - don’t judge it correctly and someone will nip into the gap.
Personally, if I get back to trains and tubes it’ll be with masks and hand sanitisers, and I shall social distance as best I can regardless of the rules.
I mean some folks were talking about quarter to half a million deaths, and we’ve only had 130,000.
The first figures were being bandied around as a 'without lockdown' worst case prediction, I believe. Luckily we never got the chance to find out how accurate they were.
I think there was a bit of a wobble going on on the thread when the true mortality rate of the virus was still to be established. Early reports out of Wuhan were not entirely encouraging. At least most of the 'it's no worse than the flu' crowd have buggered off now, given the number of excess deaths we've actually had.
Posting as a reminder covid is still out there. My daughter’s school is having an outbreak.
Small outbreak in another year at my daughters school, though I understand a school in Long Eaton is having a big outbreak and effectively closing. And most of the parents will be around 40ish, so may not be vaccinated.
Every outbreak disrupts schooling, employment, and puts others at risk. Yes, we have to work around this new endemic virus, but each change in restrictions will create these little bumps, and people need reminding of this, not being steered towards Benidorm in August
not being steered towards Benidorm in August
The Balearics are on the news this morning doing their best to encourage it. Of course they would though, they really need the money.
At least most of the ‘it’s no worse than the flu’ crowd have buggered off now, given the number of excess deaths we’ve actually had.
I think they've mutated into "no worse than Spanish flu", which worked out fine even though it killed 3% of the world's population (see also "this isn't the Brexit we voted for").
I think they’ve mutated into “no worse than Spanish flu”
At least that's an accurate statement. I'd go further and say it's no worse than the Black Death.
It's much worse than the Black Death! Yersina pestis is now easily treatable but uncommon in some US Southern States.
https://www.cdc.gov/plague/index.html
Smartarse! Anyway, you spelled Yersinia wrong. 🙂
Just give up washing,then people will give you more space 🙂
Some of us still have little to no sense of smell. Had to ask Mrs TiRed if a top needed washing yesterday...
Exactly mctd, my daughter is only in the nursery and only half the time so with me and the wife at home it's not a problem really to keep her off a few days just in case (it's not her year group, but). I feel sorry for the kids in the 4 years now off, and sorry for the parents that have been sticking to the rules.... Unfortunately lots of the parents ignored the rules right through lockdown and I'm just surprised it's taken this long to happen tbh.
Anyway, it's a reminder that a few rule breakers increase the risk of significant disruption or worse for a lot of others.
You would think these people from point 2 only have to look at what is happening in India right now to see the consequences of not having strict lockdowns.
No, they look to Florida.