dazh, we can debate how far it can push things, but it's certainly not the case that the govt can underwrite things indefinitely. Ultimately, consumption requires production, while you can shift things around a bit but without people actually making stuff, we can't have stuff, no matter what the govt does with finances.
Ultimately, consumption requires production
Have you been in a Halfords recently? :-O Building a folding fixie for Son2 away at uni.
Kryton57
Full Member
I like TiRed’s perspective. Do what you can to follow up the rules and encourage others to do the same. Don’t panic, we are stuck with it now, make the best of a bad situation.
I'm liking this new,more upbeat Kryton57
but it’s certainly not the case that the govt can underwrite things indefinitely.
I'm not talking about forever, only for the timespan of the pandemic, which I think most would assume expect to be a couple of years, lets say to the end of 2022 as a conservative estimate. So that would be just less than 3 years where the government would have to support businesses and jobs which represent a low (but significant) percentage of the economy. Why wouldn't that be possible?
I didn't hear the first part or the presentation, but I assume PV didn't mention the unreliability of cases as a marker of infections - but here is the admissions data - doubling in about 7-14 days or thereabouts. We can debate the amount of curvature since (exp(x) = 1+x+... for small x), but everything is pointing in a "going up faster than linear" kind of way. My analysis uses data from Week 25 to show it declined and is now climbing.
I’m liking this new,more upbeat Kryton57
Me too. Seriously, there is much to be positive about.
but here is the admissions data – doubling in about 7-14 days or thereabouts.
I can see the value of national admissions data, but I'm wondering whether this week's decisions should be driven by the data for the worst regions - north-west/north-east/Yorkshire and Humber/Brum - rather than waiting until the national doubling rate is at the lower end of your estimate? If R0 is still a thing, I'd imagine we are breaching 2 in plenty of parts of the north of England.
I wonder whether some kind of supra-regional lockdowns would be a better idea than closing down the south-east of England and west of England as well as the north?
I’m not talking about forever, only for the timespan of the pandemic, which I think most would assume expect to be a couple of years, lets say to the end of 2022 as a conservative estimate.
And in Australia, the lockdown in Victoria seems to have been pretty effective inside 3 months duration? Honestly getting a bit bored with these lazy "all or nothing" caricatures. My positive thought is that we should have a much better set of data for understanding the efficacy of different lockdown measures by now. That's going to help us for the forseeable. Personally, am not prepared to give up trying just yet.
There’s seems to be an inevitable march towards the bad old days of March, April etc, only I don’t think the public have any desire to actually do anything but try to ignore it.
I think the general consensus is that most restrictions are largely unenforceable by the Rozzers (with or without some willing Brownshirts to help). But (IMO/IME) most people's own social conscience actually did plenty of the work back in March/April. People made the effort during the first couple of months to comply with lockdown and any control over the infection rate that was managed then was largely due to the majority complying with the rules.
The current narrative is a bit distasteful because the Government have merrily "taken their foot off the brake" in spite of advice not to do so, have put out random, contradictory and confusing statements and "guidance". And are now trying to deflect blame for a 2nd wave to the great unwashed not following the "Rules". Sadly it seems to be working and sewing divisions and creating resentment amongst communities, a social environment within which DomCum and Co. Thrive...
I don't for one second believe the current situation was either unforeseeable or unavoidable. But we don't get to vote on this shower for another four and a bit years.
Surely idiocy is rate limiting to the totality of wave 2?
Do we get to a point where all the idiots are infected and sensible people are avoiding them sufficiently well to reduce the rate?
Or is there sufficient homogeneity of idiots, thus we're all done for no matter what? Especially if the idiots day job is as a HCP or care worker...
Surely idiocy is rate limiting to the totality of wave 2?
Do we get to a point where all the idiots are infected and sensible people are avoiding them sufficiently well to reduce the rate?
Or is there sufficient homogeneity of idiots, thus we’re all done for no matter what? Especially if the idiots day job is as a HCP or care worker…
I wish.
I said right at the start of this that Covid was going to be Cynicism virus. It was going to infect everyone who liked to stand at the bar pissed up slurring "it's a load of old bollocks" about, well everything.
It was going to infect people who have "had enough of experts" and everyone who, has decided that anything that doesn't suit them personally is a Conspiracy, Fake News or whatever else they tell themselves to make a lie the truth.
It won't though, it's a cruel twist of fate that it's both incredibly contagious, and mostly undetectable by 80% of people who get it. It's never the 20 something in the pub hugging all their mates, it's their 85 year old Grandmother when they just "pop in for a sec". It's not the Young Mum who "only popped to the shops" when they should be isolating, it's the 56 year old Man behind the counter.
It seems to me that too few people care anymore, even the most vocal of us who think we're the good guys have usually got a handful of excuses of why we're not breaking the rules, or why if we do, it's okay because we're careful. Because if it wasn't, the lockdown would have last 3-4 weeks and the virus would have been eradicated in the UK.
There's going to be lots of collateral damage even among those who take all reasonable steps. Even if it's mostly the reckless who get it (or perhaps more charitably, those who judge the risk to themselves is so small that the costs of isolation outweigh it).
There is a reasonable debate to be had about the degree to which the young - who have been shat upon repeatedly from a great height by the elderly in recent years - should be expected to sacrifice their futures to help out the same people who have been shitting on them so vindictively and deliberately.
Because if it wasn’t, the lockdown would have last 3-4 weeks and the virus would have been eradicated in the UK.
Not a chance. Eradication has never been an option. Re-introductions will always serve to stabilize in a nation of 66M. New Zealand we are not. It is all about management of resource not elimination.
Surely idiocy is rate limiting to the totality of wave 2?
Do we get to a point where all the idiots are infected and sensible people are avoiding them sufficiently well to reduce the rate?
Or is there sufficient homogeneity of idiots, thus we’re all done for no matter what? Especially if the idiots day job is as a HCP or care worker…
And then schools are open, compulsory, and not socially distant.
You can do your best to avoid anyone you want, but your children can't avoid theirs.
Thanks TiRED! You've perked me up a bit about the outlook.
Do what you can to follow up the rules and encourage others to do the same.
Yeah I've spent the last week telling most of my friends and associates intent on 'interpreting the rules to suit their agenda' to park the whatabouttery, look beyond the blond buffoon and his comedy messengers and not lose sight of the reasons for why we're doing this.
Loo rolls restocked.
Just sayin'
Loo rolls restocked
*panic buys a car full*
There is a reasonable debate to be had about the degree to which the young – who have been shat upon repeatedly from a great height by the elderly in recent years – should be expected to sacrifice their futures to help out the same people who have been shitting on them so vindictively and deliberately.
It's not known as the Boomer Virus for nothing.
It's a valid argument, I think it's why data the age groups of fatal cases have been so vague and under reported.
I'm middle aged AF, but looking at it from their point of view - here's the pitch
"hey 23 year old. I know you've known nothing but austerity since you were in Primary school, you've got £50k of Graduate Debt, you're earning minimum wage and the only way you're ever going to own a house is by inheriting one." There's this virus going around. There is a 0.03% chance, that if you get it, you'll die. I know, you're far more likely to die from Suicide, An accident at work or on the roads, WAY more likely.
"that doesn't sound very scary to me?"
"no, being honest, there's 95% change you'll never know you had it, and if you do, it'll feel like a seasonal cold, because... well, to you, it is. But see that Chap over there, he's 53, he spent his 20s and most of his 30s smoking, he drinks more than he should and never takes exercise. He's retiring next month, because you know, he's worked 'all his life' although statistically he worked far less hours than you will, for more money, with greater job security and lets not forget that solid gold pension that will keep him comfortably off, for maybe the next 40 years - longer than he worked to earn it. Sorry, you can't have one of those - You'll have to be very lucky AND work very hard to retire before you're 70 - don't complain though, they just blame iPads"
"will it kill him?"
"Maybe, there's about a 0.5% chance"
"Shame, erm I mean that's not very high"
"No, it's not, we really need to protect the over 70s. You see, they are the apex Boomers, they, statistically enjoyed the very peak of humanity - I know I know, we've all heard the stories, rationing, 30 miles 't pit, uphill both ways, the War, the War, the War, the War and the War - but they're full of shit. They're talking about their parents. They were all born after the war had long ended, if they saw rationing it was as a small child. They used all the Earths natural resources irreversibly damaging the planet in the process they also sold all the public services for a pile of cash and voted in their millions to ensure no new houses were built, ever - so the 4 bed home they live alone in, it worth far more than they ever earned through work. and you can't buy a flat - because they own them too, you can rent one thoug!"
"will it kill them all?"
"No, about 10% of those infected will die from Covid, that's a lot of people"
"Don't 6% of all over 70s die of 'natural causes' including other Corona viruses, Flu and other minor illnesses every year?"
"Yes."
*Looks warily at booze cupboard*
*Remembers wine episode of Black Books*
*Smiles*
Surely idiocy is rate limiting to the totality of wave 2?
Do we get to a point where all the idiots are infected and sensible people are avoiding them sufficiently well to reduce the rate?
Well if I could avoid going to my non socially distanced, PPE free work I would.
So even though we’ve ordered multiples of what we need, that doesn’t mean we will vaccinate the whole country and then think about the rest of the world. As above, we will vaccinate those who are working in Healthcare etc, then our vulnerable and then it will go global.
I'll have to read the COVAX fine print and whilst I agree with the morality of what you state COVAX proposes, I highly doubt the UK government have the national political capital to implement that.
Boris will be strung up like Mussolini if after a second lockdown, he gives a lot of the vaccine away after only 20 percent of the population have been vaccinated.
And I feel like cycling again!
This is proper good news! Oh, and all the other stuff as well.
My own take…?
Good news: we now have a very good idea about what we all need to do to keep each other safe - we can make this work
Bad news: there is currently a lot of focus on a loud minority of people wanting to make this about us all just keeping ourselves safe instead - and this will not work
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-vaccine-covid-covax-facility-b483647.html
Covax allows the same company selling into the pool to sell bilaterally. The way the pharma industry usually responds to such opportunities is to identify who is the highest bidder and supply a greater volume to them and reduce the volume into the lower price market.
“This was suggested to me by some pharma companies, that they would first service their bilateral agreements and then pass the excess stock on to Covax. So you may end up with a shortage if you’re sitting in Covax, which would be a problem if that’s how the market plays itself out.
Great work P-Jay. Certainly a case that "that generation" should offer back some support to the youngsters if they expect to be protected.
Eradication has never been an option. Re-introductions will always serve to stabilize in a nation of 66M. New Zealand we are not. It is all about management of resource not elimination.
A lot of people got fixated on the idea of eradicating the virus, despite pretty much all the experts saying it couldn't be done. Our binary internet view of the world doesn't seem to allow any middle ground on any issue.
There is a reasonable debate to be had about the degree to which the young – who have been shat upon repeatedly from a great height by the elderly in recent years – should be expected to sacrifice their futures to help out the same people who have been shitting on them so vindictively and deliberately.
This is pretty dam true. im not old, but not young either (mid 30s) even i feel their pain. But the Tories are never gonna single out their pale, frail and stale voters. Its ok for the older people to destroy my future and my hyperthetical children's with Brexit but im supposed to protect theirs.
Sorry to be flippant but if its as realistic and easy as you claim why not set out a plan and pop it in the mail for Boris he seems to be lacking ideas currently? Fact is its not, social services can’t even support the amount of people its required to support now. Expecting the gov’ to support the whole country for the next 6+ months while we sit at home and watch netflix isn’t realistic… not without mass unemployment and a horrific recession that we just can’t recover from.
Yawn.
People are never going to understand this are they DazH.
As long as inflation remains low then there is capacity in the economy to spend with new money created by the BoE.
The real limits are resources and employment, and especially now what sort of employment would be useful.
Boris partly flirted with this (hence the support so far) but Tory ideology is to try and balance the books which contracts the economy (hence austerity.) Loons.
The Tories are especially saddled with the flat out lies of managing the economy like a household. Old Tories anyway.
Trust me they are going to have to issue more money at some point - it's the only way to put it back into the economy if things start to take even more of a dive.
Taxation does not pay for the government's spending. So no the government is not dependent on tax for spend.
Please read The Deficit Myth.
Please don't start with inflation. Inflation is not a product of issuing money. It's usually a supply side problem.
A lot of people got fixated on the idea of eradicating the virus, despite pretty much all the experts saying it couldn’t be done. Our binary internet view of the world doesn’t seem to allow any middle ground on any issue.
This is just the kind of line Tories trot out - Japan has already knocked it's second wave on the head. No they are never going to eradicate it, yes they have done a much better job of keeping it under control than us. They aren't some tiny country like New Zealand, so you can't make that excuse. Other, more comparable countries have done much much better than us.
And whilst I agree with TiRed most of the time, we need people throwing stones from the side lines - they are the people who help us avoid groupthink.
P-Jay : you forgot to mention the long term effects of a cytokine storm attacking the body, below is taken from the BMJ
“Profound fatigue” was a common symptom in most people with long covid, she said, but added that a wide range of other symptoms included cough, breathlessness, muscle and body aches, and chest heaviness or pressure, but also skin rashes, palpitations, fever, headache, diarrhoea, and pins and needles. “A very common feature is the relapsing, remitting nature of the illness, where you feel as though you’ve recovered, then it hits you back,
Then you have to be concerned about the long term damage,
Valentina Puntmann, who coauthored a research paper in JAMA Cardiology examining the cardiovascular effects in unselected patients with covid-19,2 discussed one of the study’s findings: the relatively high frequency of postviral or inflammatory myocarditis in people who have had covid-19.
She said, “We were all focusing on the lungs and respiratory symptoms to begin with, but the virus attacks the same receptor that is in the heart too, not just the lungs. Many patients who have had heart failure in the past who have now been very unwell with covid symptoms have sustained arrhythmias, meaning their hearts were beating very fast whilst they were ill, and they then went on to develop heart failure.
“If you have pre-existing cardiac conditions, and cardiomyocytes express the ACE2 receptor that the covid virus likes, you are more likely to develop the cardiac symptoms. Taking ACE inhibitors can be used as a preventive measure.”
Puntmann said that the illness was “obviously a huge stress on the heart, particularly for those with pre-existing conditions, which can lead to hypoxia and ischaemia of the heart. The clinical course of covid-19 is also much worse in individuals with a troponin leak.”
And then you have the worry over potential long term damage to the brain, kidneys, lungs, liver, gut/intestinal and blood issues such as clotting, reduced red cell count.
Below is an excerpt taken from JAMA Cardiology,
But other patients are affected without apparent risk factors: A paper this week in JAMA Cardiology found that 78 of 100 people diagnosed with COVID-19 had cardiac abnormalities when their heart was imaged on average 10 weeks later, most often inflammation in heart muscle. Many of the participants in that study were previously healthy with no underlying conditions.
People are never going to understand this are they DazH.
Nope. I think it's deeper than just misunderstanding or wilfully ignoring how govt finances work. It seems to be ingrained in people that it's not the government's job to support people, even in a time of national crisis. I can only imagine what would have happened in 1945 had the same attitudes been prevalent then.
It's very odd that people would rather we experience economic collapse with all the horrific consequences it would bring (food shortages, savings/pensions being wiped out, mass unemployment, bankrupties, repossessions etc) rather than the government printing a bit more money and giving it to people to do useful stuff. Madness!
P-Jay did you write that yourself? Hats off if you did.
P-jay spot on. maybe we shouldnt concentrate on the death side,but tell them, "if you don't start taking it seriously, the cushy westernised world you live in will collapse. Peasants revolt after the black death etc....
We are talking some serious world changing stuff.etc....."
In other news, we are at covid level 4 now apparently.
I see the Daily Mail are doing their best to promote another wave of panic buying with pictures of empty shelves all over their website. Absolute scum.
It's the Daily Mail, when the vaccine is made public it'll be because they helps make it in some way.
TBF it's all over the (food) retail trade and wholesale at the moment.....
P-Jay did you write that yourself? Hats off if you did.
Yeah, I hope everyone saw it was meant to be humorous.
I’ve popped into Sainsbury’s on the way home to do the ‘big shop’ and it’s full of older people and I felt a bit guilty making such a dark joke at their expense... then I saw they were all bulk buying bread and milk like snow was forecast or something and I found myself wondering whether they should be saved at such a cost ha ha.
P-Jay
Full Member
daveatextremistsdotcouk
Full Member
BPW closing
We’ll see, no other Wales MTB venue / centre has closed, they’re just asking for only local people to attend.
BPW did at least try to stop people from lock-down areas coming, but it’s not like they’re taking ID at the door.
Posted 4 hours ago
Just seen an announcement on FB from them that they are going to have to close
Trust me they are going to have to issue more money at some point – it’s the only way to put it back into the economy if things start to take even more of a dive.
Particularly seeing as they’ve spent the last 5 years banging on about reclaiming the sovereignty required to do just something like that.
Not that they couldn’t anyway
Particularly seeing as they’ve spent the last 5 years banging on about reclaiming the sovereignty required to do just something like that.
Not that Joe Public will understand but we never lost the sovereignty to issue our own currency. It was the single best decision Gordon Brown ever made, and one that Blair stupidly wanted to give away. (sorry veering onto the brexit thread now, there should be a x-post function)
I’ve been thinking about ‘the Covid’ since I finished work at 5...
I can only conclude lock down isn’t going to work.
Personally, I feel a little duped by Johnson. Not the first time, won’t be the last. Think back to March and the message was “flatten the curve, protect the NHS” so the NHS wasn’t overrun and they could gear up for Covid and we did it, it took months of sacrifice both socially and financially but hospitals have been empty for MONTHS. They even wheeled out Ole’ Liz to tell us to tow the line and we’ll be sorted “soon”.
But all this talk of “second waves” is bullshit, complete and utter bullshit it’s always been “one big wave” we couldn’t eradicate it, and even if it mutates to something less dangerous it will still kill some people.
I’m sure Boris would like to blame the change in weather, but it may be September, but it’s been sunny and 20c most days for most people for most of Sept In reality we’re playing okey cokey with it. The ‘new normal’ of the late summer was probably as far from normal as most people will accept now.
Back in Spring I would have said 70% of people believed in the lock down, 20% were dubious if it’s worth or necessity and 10% of people just didn’t care and did everything they could to defy it.
As we go into this new phase I get the impression that it’s a shrinking minority who believe in it now.
I’ve got colleagues who I know are smart, reasonable, compassionate people - but they live in RCT and have continued to go in and out of Cardiff for the most flimsy of reasons because they don’t think it will make any difference. Bloody Jessica Strange formally of GMBN fame thought nothing of posting Insta bangers from Afan days after coming home from the Alps and the supermarket jammed full of older people because Chris Witty said the virus is on the rise.
When even the most vulnerable people are now more scared of the restrictions than the virus I’ve got to conclude there’s no longer the will for a 6-month to endless round of restrictions.
The issue is that every winter the NHS is in a crisis
I used to get emails of bowel cancer surgeries happening every week access London, (so we can collect tumour samples), in a bad flu year 80% of operations get cancelled because there's no ITU beds
Every winter the system is close to collapse, we should probably be locked down, it should be a government topling scandal
But no one really cares
Except this year it's all people will talk about it.
Johnson's reputation has been destroyed by the covid crisis he's desperately trying to get ahead of this, a big second wave & a bad flu season will be game over for him & he knows it
I’m sure Boris would like to blame the change in weather
well, the summer's been brilliant so far
June: Go to the pub
July : Go to work at the office, buy a coffee on the way
August: Go out for dinner, we'll pay half
September: This is your last chance to stop spreading the virus.
As we go into this new phase I get the impression that it’s a shrinking minority who believe in it now.
Polls suggest you are wrong. There a vocal minority complaining about rules being too tough too soon… the majority in all samples say the opposite. The government is lagging behind public sentiment again. They are stuck between acting based on the lessons they learnt earlier this year, and the sentiment of many their own MPs who don’t believe in such evidence based policy as a rule.
June: Go to the pub
July : Go to work at the office, buy a coffee on the way.
July: Go on holiday.
July: You don't need to wear a mask. Until 10 days time, when it's essential.
August: Go out for dinner, we’ll pay half.
September: Go back to school, it's perfectly safe.
September: It's not safe for you to meet more than 6 people. After this weekends caning, obvs.
September: If people don't follow the rules, we'll have a second wave.
Added a few.
Clearly you didn't bother to read the follow-up post...
Yeah, I hope everyone saw it was meant to be humorous.
Ah...............
I didn't laugh though.
Ergo, it wasn't funny.
Wow! You come across as an utter ****.
<span style="font-size: 0.8rem;">That is the most odious piece of drivel I’ve read in a long time</span>
<span style="font-size: 0.8rem;">Blame the elderly for the laziness and stupidity of youth and all the worlds ills</span>
<span style="font-size: 0.8rem;">If you “think” the elderly have “shat” upon the young, then you need to take your head for a “shart”</span>
<span style="font-size: 0.8rem;">Jesus. No wonder everyone hates you</span>
Actually dude there was a bit of research done back end of last year which proves the baby boomers and older were more financially stable than their current counterparts. Fact is these days it's harder to get a job, saving rates are awful, rents crazy expensive and owning a house is an absolute pipe dream for the majority.
Btw, no need to get personal at the end.
