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Went to Wales yesterday. A trip I've been looking forward to for 13 months (originally planned for that fateful March 2020 weekend).
I could not be more happy 🙂
And I ache. Us softie southerners dont have sustained climbingor descending for that long.
I dont think the Chinese have “hidden” any more deaths than the UK.
This has to be one of the most ridiculous statements on this thread and there's some stiff competition.
But the population is enormous
This. I took a look into the size and population of India and in fact the current peak is not a serious as our last one on a population basis, but as TiRed says the headlines and very sad death rate over there due to overwhelmed health services is what is making the headlines.
Its pleasing to hear that other countries including ours are sending ventilators and oxygen to help.
Its saddening to hear that AZ/Netherlands are throwing away 11 million doses that could maybe have gone to India because the Netherlands have decided they aon't want them anymore. I find this appalling, that government should be ashamed of themselves.
The Indian varient is much more contaigeous than the original in Wuhan and much harder to contain
Wheres the data to prove that? Its still being reviewed as a variant, so that guess might be right or it could be wrong but right now you don't know.
The social interactions increased after the government stated the country was past the pandemic and religious festivals went ahead with huge mass gatherings and life went back to normal, they got sloppy. So could be a result of that as opposed to this variant being way worse than anything else.
I dont think the Chinese have “hidden” any more deaths than the UK.
Best comment on the post by far. Same as the Xinjiang internment camps are merely to help teach the Uyghurs Muslims worthwhile stuff and are not a prison of any sort eh?
We're talking Covid numbers not internment of Muslins. I suggest starting a thread in support of Uyghurs Muslims if you wish to discuss the topic, I'll lend my voice of support.
Compare Chinese excess deaths figures in what I hope you would consider a reliable source:
https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n415
with the UK:
https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n799
The excess death numbers show that Wuhan was the only province seriously affected, there were no excess deaths in the rest of China. That corresponds with Chinese reporting of Covid deaths. There's clearly under reporting in both countries but the excess deaths data says that the level of "hiding" is comparable.
Larry, it would be a guess to say that the Indian variant is more contagious than any of the other main variants spreading across continents right now (including the Kent one), but it is not a guess to say it is more contagious than the one that hit Wuhan, and travelled from China around the world back in winter 19/20. Things have moved on.
As for China “hiding more deaths”… no, they just used draconian measures to contain things. They didn’t mess about, they locked neighbourhoods down in a way that we here just never would, and India also wouldn’t (and arguably could not). Their medical response was also ramped up almost shockingly fast, and secure in terms of transmission in a way we haven’t even managed a year later.
And now we have the EU & Ireland suing AZ. Talk about kicking a gift horse in the mouth, what an evil bunch of arseholes.
And now we have the EU & Ireland suing AZ. Talk about kicking a gift horse in the mouth, what an evil bunch of arseholes.
Sorry that's ambiguous, who in your opinion are the "evil bunch of arseholes"? I wouldn't resereve that jusdgement for any of the parties mentioned in your post myself, I'll reserve that for whoever was putting pressure on AZ.
Edit: judges have powers to access information that even governments don't. I see it as a way to extract information the EU and Ireland don't have access to without getting legal.
who in your opinion are the “evil bunch of arseholes?
The EU, for distracting and potentially suing one of major providers of vaccine at a point in time when their undivided attention for what they do is needed most.
Just my opinion likely tainted by the frankly awful day I've had at work.
but it is not a guess to say it is more contagious than the one that hit Wuhan, and travelled from China around the world back in winter 19/20. Things have moved on.
Yes and just because it's a variant doesn't mean it's more contaigeous than another, it could well be but Edukator made a bold statement without any proof at this current time.
If you believe China recorded all their deaths correctly as the western world has done then I have some magic beans for sale you can buy off me.
And now we have the EU & Ireland suing
Where is that Ireland is a separate party to the EU action? only reports I can find just say it’s an EU action, including RTE the Irish state broadcaster.
If you believe China recorded all their deaths correctly as the western world has done then I have some magic beans for sale you can buy off me
Can you offer any credible evidence that their death numbers are grossly inaccurate ? There was certainly an initial cover up, local leaders not wanting to pass bad news up the line etc etc. But as kelvin said, once the response started they didn't mess around.... an authoritarian/communist government does have some advantages.
The Chinese Govt have such a stranglehold they can say anything they like. The Govt message is the only version of the truth.
Satelite images of hospital car parks support the idea Covid was present in Wuhan from about August 2019. French athletes who visited Whuhan in October fell sick with a respiratory illness and blood samples of sick French people prove the virus was present in Paris in November 2019.
Thing is the French authorities didn't suspect a new virus and there would have been no reason for the Chinese authorities to initially. At some point it got serious enough for them to do the research that led them to discovering Covid. From the point they made that discovery to the point it was revealed to the world you can talk about a "cover up". We don't know how long that was, Li Wenliang blew the whistle and the Chinese propaganda machine took over. But the important thing was that Li Wenliang's revelations made the propaganda machine irrelevant, the news was out and it was up to the rest of the world to react, which it didn't, for months. The rest of the world stood and stared like rabbits into headlights, went skiing, flew the world, went to church, refused to wear masks, wrung its hands... .
Those same satelite images give us an idea of the scale of the problem too. It was visible but not catastrophic, by the time they had to build an emergency hospital events were being reported worlwide. The "cover up didn't last long enough for huge numbers to die, we know how the virus numbers rise exponentially having observed the same around the world. We know that when the virus hits a country it tends to be localised initally (New York in the US, Tuscany in Italy, Mulhouse in france... Wuhan in China), and the scale of deaths associated with that first wave.
As Kelvin and Paul recognise, once the Chinese realised they had a problem their reaction was impressive. They've had experience with SaRs CoV 1 and other sanitary events and shut down harder and faster than we did in the west thus limiting deaths.
I really think that the Chinese death numbers are in the right ball park. Recording cause of death varies from country to country. In Germany they were talking about retro-testing dead to find if they'd died of Covid to be sure they included everybody, whilst in the UK you have to die within less that 28 days of a positive test to be recorded as a Covid death which is rather short. That's why excess deaths is the most reliable indicator and for those you have my links further up the page. You'll have to believe the BMJ though.
And a question for you anti-Chinese people, would your country have done better if the virus had started there? If the outbreak had started in France with those few unexplained case of pneumonia in November 2019 and slowly built expontially from there without cases arriving from China we would have perhaps found a new virus a few months later and had to lock down five or six months later - just like the Chinese. I don't think we'd have done better.
An anecdote: my mate was working in NE China 20yrs ago on an internationally funded large water infrastructure project. They were very concerned when there was an issue with the flow meters recording unexpected and unexplained differences in flow along some long sections of huge trunk mains. They replaced the meters a couple of times and just couldn't work out the problem. It was obviously due to leakage along the pipeline but they couldn't find it easily due to land access and terrain. So they went out with a 4x4 and found there were some substantial leaks causing loss of valuable water. When they asked the local Govt client for extra resources to fix it they were told that according to the official Govt guidance they don't have any water leakage in China. He showed him the page in his official red book. The project was eventually a disaster due to lots of red tape, policy and lies.
It's an old story but they've got more paranoid about image, dissenters etc since then. I wouldn't trust their official Govt stance on anything. So in many ways they're exactly the same as Boris and his bunch of cronies.
The regime there did enable them to completely shut down Wuhan once the cat was out of the bag. The same insidious regime controlled all messaging to the outside world, then lied, misled and bullied the WHO
The same Chinese government that just blocked out the Oscar winning Director becuase a) she’s a woman and b) won it in the western world?
As above, likely much worse that our own incapable and corrupt shower of shit.
They're all very naughty and should be sent to bed without dessert
As above, likely much worse that our own incapable and corrupt shower of shit.
In many ways I agree, but in terms of Covid management, despite China being the first place hit they did a whole lot better than Britain or France in terms of managing the crisis, limiting transmission of the virus and getting people back to work and play.
Credit wher credit is due.
I agree they were very effective in closing the gate after the horse had bolted.
they did a whole lot better than Britain or France in terms of managing the crisis, limiting transmission of the virus and getting people back to work and play.
I don't think anyone is doubting that, its the number of reported deaths which is in question.
I don’t think anyone is doubting that, its the number of reported deaths which is in question.
And as Ed explained above, their reports are in line with the excess deaths. I know people who live in China, and I know that they had proper lockdowns, not the half hearted 'stay at home unless you don't want to' idiocy that we had here. They wore masks from the start. They were serious about quarantine for new arrivals. So I find their numbers credible, certainly at least as credible as ours, because they actually did follow the science.
From the point they made that discovery to the point it was revealed to the world you can talk about a “cover up”. We don’t know how long that was
We know through CNN that local Wuhan officials knew by December that there was an increase in deaths and they were covering that up. When doctors also spoke up about a new disease in December they were accused of spreading rumours, and we know that China's leadership knew that there was new human transmissible disease in early Jan that they didn't say anything publicly until the end of Jan. Without doubt China's ability to lockdown draconianly helped save perhaps millions, but their 'official' death toll from the pandemic in under 5000 which is clearly an underestimate, given that Wuhan is a major internal air hub, and the death toll in Hubei alone in Feb '20 was 3.5K
Whether they fiddled the figures or not, a Chinese lockdown is a lot more effective and draconian than anything the West could implement - remember the pics of people being forcibly taken to hospital? Emergency hospitals springing up in a couple of weeks, in a country with previous experience of these kind of viruses.
in the UK you have to die within less that 28 days of a positive test to be recorded as a Covid death which is rather short.
Based on what TiRed and others were modelling, there's a very sad reason they don't have to worry about recording deaths 29+ days after a positive test. Presumably the massive increase in new recorded cases in India will feed into a similar cycle over there in the next couple of weeks? Utterly horrendous for them.
I see the Uk vaccinations are now open to 42+. Previously we opened up in 5 year blocks. I imagine we don't want to overwhelm the booking system and also a shortage of 1st dose availability due to catching up on the second doses.
Are we expecting Novovax to come on-stream soon? The MHRA seem to have been looking at their data for ages?
The whole EU/AZ thing is an ugly mess. "We don't want your vaccine but we will sue you for not giving us enough of it" ???
From the other side of the Channel the "ugly mess" is just wanting to know why a company sent all the production from its British and European sites to just one country for a while and then drip fed Continental Europe whilst fully supplying the UK. Europe got only 30 of 120 million doses contracted while the Uk has not been complaining of delivery shortfalls - I'm happy to be corrected on whether Britian has complained of delivery shortfalls, I haven't looked very hard. AZ has been less than transparent with inspectors finding millions of doses that would have otherwise been quietly exported. A court case will force transparency - hopefully.
As for whether a country uses the doses it had been provided with through the EU scheme that is up to the country and waste should not be blamed on the EU. Countries can and do fix their own criteria for use of the vaccine, in France it's for over 55s and in Germany over 60s, some countires have decided not to use it.
In France which is running around 30 000 new cases a day the risk reward balance is not the same as New Zealand. Nobody is dying of Covid in New Zealand but you know that vaccination the population would kill around 2 per million. In France 1/150 000 being very ill and 2/million deaths with AZ is accceptable because the risk of dying of Covid is so much higher. However in Denmark which is running at 2 Covid deaths a day it's a more difficult ethical choice when waiting a few weeks means a safer vaccine can be used.
AZ aimed to make 30 million vaccines available to the UK by September 2020, by the end of the year they had delivered about 500,000.
I’m happy to be corrected on whether Britian has complained of delivery shortfalls,
We've had to reduce numbers of new first doses over the last month due to supply squeeze while we do the second AZ doses. The way it was introduced made me assume, possibly wrongly, that the supply squeeze was not in the rollout plan
Let's not forget the drug was developed by the Oxford team funded by UK government. AZ was approached as a manufacturing partner, with the uk priority supply agreed as part of that deal. This EU legal action was agreed by all member states.
AZ only signed the contract on 28/8/2020, Mefty. The same day as it started its phase 3 clinical trials in the US. Phase three trials continued through Sept and Oct and finished on 4/11. The vaccine was first approved for use on 30/12/2020. Your statement seems bizarre in the light of the trials and production situation at the time.
AZ aimed to make 30 million vaccines available to the UK by September 2020, by the end of the year they had delivered about 500,000.
Well, that's interesting. Why did you post it?
I’m happy to be corrected on whether Britian has complained of delivery shortfalls,
There have been shortfalls.
Only since the EU blocked exports, Scotroutes I assume. It'll all come out in the wash/court.
I'm going to take issue with the comment about hiding vaccines for export.
Notice how following the police raids on the manufacturing facilities it has all gone quiet.
You really think that would have happened if there was something being hidden?
AstraZeneca are massively behind with their deliveries to both the UK and the EU. Only the EU have been making lots of noise about it though.
Agreement with the UK from May last year says they'll try to deliver 30 million doses by September and promised 100 million by the end of 2020 - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-17/astrazeneca-aims-for-30-million-u-k-vaccine-doses-by-september (I believe this is the prior agreement referenced in the contract signed in August)
Production for some EU nations (before the EU decided to take over procurement itself) was due to start in December 2020 - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-13/astrazeneca-reaches-vaccine-supply-deal-with-four-eu-nations .
Before production for the EU was even due to start, the UK should have received almost all those 100 million doses - and that's ignoring any lack of continuity as a result of the EU taking over from the individual nations.
So if everything had gone completely according to schedule the EU would start receiving vaccines about 3 months after the UK. Pretty much what has happened, but obviously everything is delayed and the numbers are much smaller than expected. You'd almost think the EU was making all that noise about shortfalls to cover up for the fact their agreement was always 3 months behind the UK's.
I’m going to take issue with the comment about hiding vaccines for export.
Notice how following the police raids on the manufacturing facilities it has all gone quiet.
You really think that would have happened if there was something being hidden?
It did come out, they were EU and Covax doses that got raided - https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/24/world/europe/vaccine-European-Union-export.html
Flatpack, apologies i should have put it there was anything underhand going on.
The truth rather gets in the way of their stupid soundbite
Text message today inviting me to book first and second jabs. I'm 41. None locally, all in different counties averaging 20 miles away, but booked first for tomorrow.
Oh I realised that, I just thought the link was useful to counter the misinformation that AstraZeneca were quietly sneaking millions of doses out of the EU in violation of their export controls 🙂
Received a text message at 9am this morning inviting me to book first and second dose vaccine appointments. I'm 41. None were nearby, all in other counties averaging ~20 miles away. Booked first dose for tomorrow.
The diagreement on these matters is why there's a court case.
AZ, Oxford University and the UK Government were parties to an agreement signed as of May 17, 2020 which established the licence arrangements for AZ to exploit the IP and the intent to supply the UK government. This has been widely reported, including mentioned on here, and is clearly evidenced. The agreement signed in August fleshes out the precise terms of that supply.
Here is an AZ press release from May last year
It was also widely reported that both Pfizer and AZ (noted in the PR) commenced production of their vaccines whilst trials were still in progress and before approval. Both experienced sub-optimal production so didn't meet their targets, which led to fewer supplies in the UK than anticipated, but that is something we had to live with.
But when you stand back, both companies at some risk to themselves have produced very effective vaccines in large numbers in a remarkable timescale.
Has anyone but the EU threatened legal action against a vaccine manufacturer? (I could add, for the purposes of domestic politics)
US to export their AZ vaccines. Note that AZ have not sought approval for the vaccine in the US. One wonders whether they will given the benefit risk profile and external need. Still 60m doses will be released. As mention this morning, India needs oxygen supplies first. The vaccines will help with future pressure not the immediate.
Analysis of the U.K. in the context of the rest of Europe shows us to be a huge outlier for all the right reasons. Notably, Sweden and even Denmark saw deaths per million rise to the expected levels for rest of Europe. Denmark knocked them down but Sweden have not. Norway has just been a consistent star with deaths per million 10x lower than the rest of Europe. Be. More. Norway.
UK deaths per million vs. all other European countries (mean and 95%CI, median and IQR). Note deaths track the European trend very closely, slight decline for lockdown2, Christmas peak and then a dramatic fall. Lockdowns and vaccinations work:
I agree that the companies have peformed very well at a scientific and industrial level, Mefty. The Astra Zeneca link you provide with Astra Zeneca's own words from last May is useful.
I'm pleased to have been given the AZ vaccine myself having weighed up the risks based on feedback from the scientific community.
Where it's all clear as mud with blanked out lines is the contractual situation. That an EU/UK company would favour one country with production from a UK government financed production site is one thing, that it would divert production from non national sites not financed by the UK government is another and asking for trouble in the form of a court case which they've got.
The AZ contract with the uk government and the separate contract with the Eu is an interesting one. Maybe it became apparent to az that they werent going to be able to satisfy both contracts, so they had to decide which party to fail to satisfy:-
1. fail to deliver the eu contract, but deliver the uk one - risk being sued by the eu
2. Fail to deliver the uk contract,but deliver the EU one - risk being sued by the uk
3 Partially fail to deliver both contracts. - risk being sued by both
Or maybe (more likely IMO) - the UK contract was more legally binding than the EU one, so the choice of who to let down became obvious. It seems naive on the part of the eu to assume that if the promised number of vaccines couldnt be delivered that vaccines due to other parties on other unconnected contracts would be shared amongst everyone equally.
The court case (if it gets that far) will reveal all - I expect AZ's lawyers are very good, and the az-eu contract is water tight in az's favour.
just like the Chinese. I don’t think we’d have done better.
I would argue that the increased mobility (in country and flights) in somewhere like France may actually have seen a much wider initial spread.
On a positive AZ note. Having had much worse "asthma" for a year following suspected Covid in March last year I have now been off my inhaler for two weeks. The first day I felt well enough to stop using the inhaler without feeling breathless was four days after being vaccinated with AZ. I've improved further and had my best run in 15 months today.
My seasonal hayfever with upper respiratory miseries is there but the lungs are working at very near normal capacity.
The improvement isn't psychological, it's real. For a year I've been waking up around 03:00 wheezing, and for two weeks haven't despite stopping all medication.
apologies if this has been discussed previously...
can someone point me in the way of any studies into the transmissibility of the virus once vaccinated?
I'm struggling to find anything apart from something about Scottish healthcare workers.
Infact I'm struggling to find anything apart from very weak / washy language. I did look some time ago on the GOV faq's - which had a short inconclusive answer to transmission, however I cannot see this question any more?
I ask because I read the below about the Astrazeneca vaccine...
:How should people under 30 weigh the benefits and drawbacks?
For healthy people under 30, the health risks from catching covid-19 are low, but there may be a slightly higher rate of the blood clot condition in younger people. So, the UK Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI) has said the risk-benefit equation is “more finely balanced” for this group. That means that for people under 30, the chance of the vaccine causing the clotting reaction is a little greater than the risk of severe illness from covid-19.
from what I understand a serious risk to health is extremely low (as stated above) so is it all about transmission then?
just trying to understand
can someone point me in the way of any studies into the transmissibility of the virus once vaccinated?
Lockdowns and vaccinations work
And timing is everything. Everyone should welcome the early vaccination programme, yet also lament Johnson's decision making as regards pushing for a "normal Christmas", despite being told from all quarters that it would cost thousands of lives. Oh, and don't forget his political jocular point scoring against Starmer when he called for the measures that were needed... and not just needed in "hindsight", but called for clearly at the time by the government's own advisors.
Latest PHE vaccine efficacy analyses published here . They do not include effects on household transmission, but analysis are ongoing. When published, I'll add a link to the new information.
using the 1/2 base x height on that red triangle, it's 'only' about 3000 extra deaths that cost us (prob more if the decline due to vaccines came in sooner, but surprises me how 'little' it really cost us
and yes, every single one is/was a tragedy, but 3-6K out of 130K seems low for me
@theotherjonv - I don't understand your point above. Are you saying that the additional 3000 to 6000 deaths at Xmas is okay when compared to the total deaths?
@kelvin Thanks, I like that addition, and yes it's the consequence of failure to act early enough. I might add the code to do the fill. You can just see the impact of Lockdown2 - it's much more obvious on cases. It was before vaccine roll-out too. That's what Christmas gave us. BTW it's a log scale. So area is challenging. I can calculate the total above the mean too.
seems low for me
It is really. The area I coloured is the minimum extra, as an earlier lockdown should have led to an earlier decrease, rather than broadly staying flat. I thought about trying to draw the line showing that, but that would involve separating out the effects of lock down and vaccinations... which isn't really doable by any of us. A challenge for TiRed...? I think that would be unfair request to make, actually. I 'think' the decrease would have been much less steep than the one that eventually occurred later, as the vaccination programme was at a much earlier stage. So, closer to the mean line, but I suspect falling faster than it (not much of Europe was locking down for Christmas... or was it?)
The AZ contract with the uk government and the separate contract with the Eu is an interesting one.
It is actually a lot less interesting than many people in the media realise as they compare the merits of two contracts. The key difference is that they were entered into by two different legal entities, the UK one with a UK group company and the EU one with a Swedish group company, whilst this distinction may make little difference in the court of public opinion, it will in the Belgian Commercial Courts and I imagine it will present considerable difficulties for the EU's lawyers.
I thought about trying to draw the line showing that, but that would involve separating out the effects of lock down and vaccinations… which isn’t really doable by any of us. A challenge for TiRed…? I think that would be unfair request to make, actually. I ‘think’ the decrease would have been much less steep than the one that eventually occurred later, as the vaccination programme was at a much earlier stage. So, closer to the mean line, but I suspect falling faster than it (not much of Europe was locking down for Christmas… or was it?)
Could some information be gained from repeating the graph but separating out the home nations? Different lockdowns, especially Wales, and in the earlier stages, very similar vaccination rates/availability, at least compared to the rest of Europe.
Oh, and don’t forget his political jocular point scoring against Starmer when he called for the measures that were needed… and not just needed in “hindsight”, but called for clearly at the time by the government’s own advisors.
SAGE talking about a firebreak at the end of September, Starmer did a broadcast calling for one early-mid October, Boris dithered on lockdown 2 then ****ed about over Christmas. And the **** has the audacity to call Starmer "Captain Hindsight".
Deaths in the UK must have what, doubled, since that end of September report? TiReds graph, especially if its a log scale, clearly shows the deaths that are due to government dithering.
If you sum the deaths per million excess over European mean from 01NOV20 to 01MAR21, then multiply by the 66 million UK population, the bump in the above plot amounts to 25k excess deaths over European mean. Note UK is not included in that control curve. I'll add the excess into the plot for all countries as an inset text.
the bump in the above plot amounts to 25k excess deaths
Smart maths. Well beyond me. Ta.
Note UK is not included in that control curve.
Good, because comparing the UK to the rest makes sense to us simple folk. Compare the UK with an average of everyone else, not an average that includes the UK figures.
Are you saying that the additional 3000 to 6000 deaths at Xmas is okay when compared to the total deaths?
No, not in the slightest, not sure where you think I said that. It was surprise at the absolute number against the 130K total
BTW it’s a log scale. So area is challenging. I can calculate the total above the mean too.
Yes, I accept mine is a fairly coarse approximation and of course acting sooner would mean that the decline would have shifted further to the left as well. But compared to other EU countries the Christmas debacle was not as expensive as I thought it would have been - I had in my mind before that graph 10's of thousands.
Still have 40,000 “in my mind”. Nothing on this page so far has moved me away from that figure. Assuming 20,000+ post xmas deaths couldn’t have been avoided by locking down earlier seems generous enough to the government.
Yes, you're right TiRed, thanks. Although I had noted that the graph is log scaled, and got the approx numbers of the base and the apex right, I hadn't calculated that the triangle (approximation) is not equally weighted - each horizontal slice is weightier than the one before.
Proves one of my arguments from earlier pages though. If you analyse your data and get an unexpected result, first check your calculation - have an idea what answer you expect. I was surprised at 3000-6000, I was right to be.
I had in my mind before that graph 10’s of thousands.
It's 2-3 10's of thousands. You have to calculate the absolute difference on the log scale, sum those up and multiply by 66. Very hard on that plot. But 25k is a solid estimate given we were so close to the mean on the way up.
Or as someone else would put it. A pile of bodies.
Still, better than another lockdown :rollseyes:
What a ****ing clown
@kelvin one could shift the second bump down and back to the left match the first small bump from lockdown2 then calculate the excess from that . It would not be kind...
I'm booked for my 1st jab tomorrow 🙂
However, I have to cycle 16 miles to St Helens for it.
Good news. Take it easy on the way home. Treat yourself with cake.
You'll be fine. Its normally the day after you feel a bit meh.
Or as someone else would put it. A pile of bodies.
Still, better than another lockdown :rollseyes:
What a **** clown
It sounds very unflattering. However, I think some 'critics' on the Left are, in bad faith, looking to frame all deaths as preventable in order to form a stick to beat the government with. Personally, I believe some level of death is tolerable so that life can go on. Put it this way, most of the care home residents 'saved' last year are now dead anyway of old age-related illnesses.
Well, I have to work the next 3 nights so not sure how that's going to pan out. If I feel really bad will have to phone in sick.
Anyway, I'm just glad to be able to significantly reduce the risk of morbidity. I had to hunt around for an early appointment because some locations were booked up for 2 weeks.
most of the care home residents ‘saved’ last year are now dead anyway of old age-related illnesses.
And the winner of today's "Idiotic things to say award" is....
Shifting the bump and rescaling the exponential decline roughly doubles the bad news...
No modelling was used to create the plot below. I just rescaled Lockdown3 and moved to Lockdown2 (November 5th). It isn't a prediction as there was no vaccine roll-out available, but it looks persuasive.
Shifting the bump and rescaling the exponential decline roughly doubles the bad news…
I think that is making the case too strongly, as it doesn’t allow for the ‘fact’ that the graph would have fallen less quickly… assuming the same lockdown measures introduced but fewer of the most at risk vaccinated at that point. Either way… it was still a very odd choice, on a political as well as human cost level, do delay that third lockdown, knowing that we were so close to vaccinating so many of the people most at risk. And, of course, late into lockdown means longer in lockdown… so even if your goal is to avoid lockdown use as much as possible, it was an odd choice to delay. Still, you get to ‘battle the boffins’ and accuse your political opponents of wanting to cancel Christmas… so there’s that ‘benefit’, if those kind of games are important to you.
^ this discussion is hugely important.
I think everyone would have sympathy with any world leader who suddenly finds themselves having to steer the country through a crisis like this. Some have done consistently well, some consistently badly - but most have done something in between. Australia (for example) have done consistently well, but there have still been some pretty significant cock-ups along the way.
Boris and chums have done consistently terribly and have revealed themselves to be exactly what many of us believed they were from day-one: utterly incompetent and morally bankrupt.
Vaccine procurement is the one thing that they seem to have done well, but that mustn't allow Boris and the government off the hook for the tens-of-thousands of extra deaths resulting from their staggering incompetence in literally every other action that they either took or didn't take. Much of which was done actively against scientific advice.
(I tried to list all Boris's failings here, but deleted it because it got too long/ranty)
All governments must be held to account for their failings during the pandemic - and as above, some of which can be excused on the basis that nobody really knew how to deal with the situation as it was unfolding. But this is not 53m for a stupid bridge, or however-much redecorating a flat, or even over 100,000 of public money to a woman with whom he was having a 4 year secret affair..... this is tens-of-thousands of extra dead people.
The good news is that every epidemiologist in the world is going to be pulling apart the Covid data for decades to come - and so Boris's catalogue of errors is going to be quantified (if only to be able to actually write the playbook for the next pandemic). However, the British public have got to have the will to hold him to account - in the way that they inexplicably haven't for the shit****ery that is/was Brexit.
Aaaaaaand breathe.
Now I'm back at work in my barber shop I'm hearing mostly sympathy for Boris. The gamble on vaccines and then on going to 12 week jabs might have been the save of the century. Short memories...
😉
I haven't been to a barber's shop since my mother last dragged me into one. Before I bought a hair trimmer I went to the hairdresser's. However, a Birmingham Mail and Daily Mail reading relative has always been to the barber's and so have his mates.
I realise society has changed and there are now classy barber's shops for trendy hispter types (are they the future gammons? ) However, the barber's shop seems to attract a certain type of client. There are exceptions of course. There's a thesis to be written here.
Note that I have nothing against barber's, they are not responsible for the politics of their clients.
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One doses of vaccine reduces transmission by 39-49%
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-56904993
Would be nice if it was higher, maybe it will be after a second dose. But it does seem to work, so whether an individual feels they need the vaccine or not based on their own covid risk, they should still get it "for the team"
I met my first real-life anti-vaxer yesterday, over 60 and has already had Covid with mild symptoms. Everyone else I've talked to about it has either had at least their first jab or is waiting impatiently. My social contact is more limited than usual but that's around 20:1 in favour of vaccination.
The gamble on vaccines and then on going to 12 week jabs might have been the save of the century.
Absolutely. Johnson's government got that part right.
They also did well in ramping up testing to start with but made bad decisions around lateral flow. Test and trace has been a privatised debacle but is now being fixed.
BIG BUT they got the timing of lockdowns repeatedly wrong. The first time is perhaps excusable, after that there's no excuse. We've seen around the world that early, hard lockdowns save lives and reduce economic impact.