And yet we are imposing quarantine on travelers based on the case numbers in Spain, France ETC.?
Infection rates rather than absolute case numbers are more relevant- https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/14/coronavirus-infection-rates-levelling-off-english-data-suggests
I guess that means yesterday’s 2-month high of 1441 cases (more than 4 times the low of 352 a few weeks back) just proves that we are now super-efficient at finding all the infected people!
I was wondering how this works also, and we continue to lift restrictions.
I know people who are OK with the throat
They'd be good at deep throating then, attractive?
I rubbed the back of my throat and it was seriously grim – huge gag response. By contrast I can put things into my nose a long way (horizontal not vertical) without issue.
What got me about the test is you take what ever is at the back of your throat and shove it up your nose. It just doesn't seem logical but it must makes sense in terms of testing.
If I'd realised going to a test centre was just an exercise in driving about a car park reading signs I'd have got a postal one. Don't think I spent enough time poking about with the cotton bud - having to keep moving on and digest everything that was happening whilst not feeling that perky. Sitting at home would have given me time to read everything a couple of times before prodding away.
So, clearly it was all Public Health England's fault...
But never fear, little Matty Handjob has got our backs...
And yet we are imposing quarantine on travelers based on the case numbers in Spain, France ETC.?
Gov probably wants to look like they are tough on Covid and not wanting to cross the the streams but why waste a useful pandemic opportunity in Game Of Brexit.
So, clearly it was all Public Health England’s fault…
But never fear, little Matty Handjob has got our backs…
Yep first thing that went thru my mind.
Looks like Didos getting a promotion for all her good work.
So, clearly it was all Public Health England’s fault…
I think TiRed has been pretty scathing about them throughout the thread. Handy scapegoats for the government though
It appears that massive privatisation is being screened by the emergency. The state has bought into a source of 'scientific' behavioural advice, presumably making them rich and overpaid but 'independent' members of the private civil service, they also have an organisation for channelling which academics get interviewed on tv, plus now a 2 person science/technology start-up with a linked name which received a £130m contract. Nobody is talking about this apart from a few references from eg Gabriel Scally of the IndieSage team. There's already some seriously rich people coming out of this, I wouldn't be surprised if some moved out of the jurisdiction so much money is involved. 'It's a fair cop, it was indeed a bit of jolly japes, but didn't you get the £30m cheque I sent with the postcard?'
According to the Torygraph Public Health England to be scrapped and replaced by new body run by Dido Harding. You know - the one who presided over the utterly failed test and trace system, the non-existent app, building on her previous success at Talk Talk where she lost all the customers data. Fun fact - her husband is a Tory MP who campaigns to privatise the NHS.
Britain is a corrupt failed state.
I think TiRed has been pretty scathing about [PHE] them throughout the thread. Handy scapegoats for the government though
Except they are not independent they are run by the govt so they are HIS responsibility
Well, you can be sure the replacement will be less “independent” … answer direct to Cummings, and you can pocket the millions.
Inevitable that PHE would get the blame, anyone but the government
If only we could find out which party created this overly centralised body & then spent a decade reducing its funding.
It's not like the strategic health authorities it supplanted specifically warned at the time that it would leave us vulnerable to pandemic
PHE came out of the 2009 influenza pandemic and is part of the NHS. NHSTT has come out of the 2020 COVID19 epidemic. The plan appears to bring all activities under a single body led by DH and reporting to Hancock. It’s not privatisation.
The academics are independent and can speak to the media on an independent basis. They will always state that their opinions are their own and not those of SAGE/SPI-M/B. They are unpaid.
If it's true that Dido Harding is in charge seems a bit worrying
My sister in law had symptoms on 5th August, got tested on 6th & didn't get results back until 9th (+ve)
She's never been contact traced
My mother in law was also worried so she got a test, but came back negative, but took 4 days to get results back
Schools open in 3 weeks, flu season can start as early as October, they really need to get on top of this
She's that good she was given the job by BJ without an interview:
Now that the government deaths data is focusing on deaths within 28 days of a positive test, are they actually more reflective of COVID deaths or not? I totally get that we can't just assume that anyone who dies and had a positive result some time in the past MUST have died of it, but don't some people take more than 28 days to die of it? Do those people tend to have tests later on in the course of the disease so still get counted?
The daily positives have climbed but there doesn't seem to be any increase in hospitalisations or people in ventilator beds, or deaths. It seems like the cases should be filtering through by now. Why is that? Is it different test strategies? Different demographics (e.g. case numbers being driven by young people who mostly don't end up in hospital or dead)?
She’s that good she was given the job by BJ without an interview:
I think he got his Didos mixed up.
I'm also a bit confused on how we are counting the deaths now - daily numbers seem much lower than I would have thought. If you test positive and die on day 29 are you not counted, even if it says "Covid" on the death certificate?
Is there any truth in the idea that it has mutated and become less deadly and this is why less people are dying now?
I had a google and found articles from about a month ago. Can't remember reading about it on this thread but might have missed it.
I understood the reduced death rate amongst increasing infected patients to be reflective of the current population in which it is spreading (ie younger people in a social context). These people are less likely to develop the complications that affect more vulnerable groups. the concern is that this creates a large pool of infected people with a consequential increased risk for the vulnerable groups
As myopic said.
We are also testing more, so some of the increase in numbers might be due to that. Though it seems implausible that all of it is, as SAGE claim.
I can see how a you get age group being affected would reduce the death rate, but iirc before the change in counting methodology we were running at 50-60 a day, then it seemed to more than halve, and we're now less than 10.
My concern is that the younger age group alone might not be the reason and something is being missed. Happy to be wrong, but I have so little faith in anything that is out out nowadays.
My concern is that the younger age group alone might not be the reason and something is being missed. Happy to be wrong, but I have so little faith in anything that is out out nowadays.
Could be something to do with the D614G mutation being less deadly but more virulent. Been mentioned a few times in the media.
Let's hope so!
I understood the reduced death rate amongst increasing infected patients to be reflective of the current population in which it is spreading (ie younger people in a social context). These people are less likely to develop the complications that affect more vulnerable groups. the concern is that this creates a large pool of infected people with a consequential increased risk for the vulnerable groups
If that is what's happening (and I agree with it) then that creates a lot more people carrying the virus without knowing or not getting enough symptoms to flag up for testing. Come Flu season in a few weeks - October onwards - then that's a large group that could infect the elderly and vulnerable at the worst time.
I could be (and genuinely hope to be) wrong but I see a rapid growth in cases and deaths that will be fuelled by lots of asymptomatic carriers, schools being back, workers returning to offices in larger numbers than now, the christmas party season kicking in (pubs will be pushing to allow larger gatherings and there will be pent up demand for letting your hair down) and the track-and-trace systems still being unable to work correctly. Everyone's going to have to be prepared for fast response to things from September onwards, something the bunch of clowns in charge will be ill-prepared to do.
Though it seems implausible that all of it is, as SAGE claim.
Why is it implausible? Testing has become a lot more targeted and more widely available, you test more in those infected areas you find more.
Aberdeen is a good example 220 odd cases, it's unlikely they'd have found those 220 back in the earlier days of the pandemic, you'd only have found the symptomatics that come forward and could get a test. Doesn't mean the carriers weren't out there, just didn't record them as couldn't get them tested or they didn't know they needed one.
Why is it implausible? Testing has become a lot more targeted and more widely available, you test more in those infected areas you find more.
well yes and no..
https://www.politico.eu/article/does-more-coronavirus-testing-mean-more-cases/
Why is it implausible? Testing has become a lot more targeted and more widely available, you test more in those infected areas you find more.
Testing is still taking days to get results back though, even for hospital staff
While it's good to get an accurate snapshot, it really doesn't help keep things under control
Mind boggling that Dido Harding has been given a promotion, considering how badly the service is underperforming
You mean, what with her husband being an MP that wants to dismantle the NHS, or with the fact that she already has links to the Conservatives?
'The government has blamed PHE for mistakes for which it was never responsible, and placed it under the control of those who were.' S Reicher
Are we going to get an update today on the extra restrictions Oop North?
Testing is still taking days to get results back though, even for hospital staff
About 2 weeks ago I got a (negative) home test result SMS less than 24h after sticking it in the postbox. So that doesn't align with 'days to get results back' but I may just have been lucky. Is there a consistent set of metrics reported for test turnaround time or are we just relying on individual accounts to form a picture? If it's the latter then it may be that there is a bias toward talking about poor experiences.
Why anyone is surprised by this is beyond me. The current Govt is beyond scrutiny and just doing whatever the **** they want
About 2 weeks ago I got a (negative) home test result SMS less than 24h after sticking it in the postbox. So that doesn’t align with ‘days to get results back’ but I may just have been lucky.
You were lucky
Testing turnaround times for pillar 2 (swab testing for the wider population) increased compared to the previous week. 67.4% of in person tests were returned within 24 hours compared to 76.9% the previous week. 43.6% of home/satellite tests were returned within 48 hours compared to 72.9% the previous week.
My sister in laws took 3 days (+ve), mother in law took 4 days (-ve), that was last week & week b4
I mentioned this to a Dr in work and she was totally unsurprised, she said colleagues had waited a similar length of time
Carry on spending, maybe one day it might accidentally be spent on something useful being delivered…
https://twitter.com/rowlsmanthorpe/status/1296422949302538241?s=21
So then extra measures for Oldham, Blackburn and Pendle.
It appears that Wigan, Darwen and Rossendale will be relaxed. No mention of the Yorkshire areas as yet....
Northampton and Birmingham to be added to the naughty list very soon.
Kirklees is still on the naughty list but the government is going to take a more localised approach rather than Borough wide.
Local MPs and councils will identify specific areas that need lockdown and agree or if no agreement work with the JBC to make independent review then get sign off to implement.
Makes sense as most cases in Kirklees is in the Dewsbury, Batley, Cleckheaton area miles from areas like Holmfirth, Meltham etc that has far less cases.
Any idea when it will be implemented?
So then extra measures for Oldham, Blackburn and Pendle.
So residents aren't allowed to socialise with anyone outside their families, however they are allowed to go to the pub..
Wtf?
You could go to the pub with your immediate family
If people can't stay 2 metres apart at home, maybe pubs controlling numbers, space and seating might work?
Shows a lack of real world understanding if the experts think that is how all pubs will work.
