I stand by my statement that pointing fingers at one group could cause complacency in another so shouldn’t be done.
Agree with that, but the opposite is also true, a one solution fits all approach that our shambolic government has applied is also extremely dangerous, it's not dealing effectively with the root causes and it's caused a complete lack of credibility with the population in the area as a whole. If Blackburn, Rochdale, Oldham etc. were locked down based on 4 digit postcodes no one would have an issue, ethnicity would not be a factor, it would be based on proper data and would also pick up areas with other ethnic bias that as you have rightly said are probably shrugging shoulders and saying it's not us.
including disgracefully shifting the blame onto Muslims
Grow up Dez, this is not about blame, its about successfully tackling outbreaks and dealing with them. For what it's worth I do agree with you about the pub situation, it just isn't the main driver behind many of the current spikes. It will probably will have a major impact on the next increase though, compounded by the stupidity of blanket banning 4 million people from meeting in each others homes whilst still allowing pubs to open. Not dealing with the current spikes will directly contribute to the next spikes.
One thing we can all agree on is the government have handled this incredibly badly, again. Introducing the lock down on the eve of Eid was calculated, insensitive and ultimately counter productive, I'd have had more sympathy if they had been more truthful for the reasoning. But then they knew Eid was coming so could have at least given people warning the changes were coming to allow people make alternate plans, the spikes have been clear in these areas for weeks and Eid's probably been on the calender for hundreds of years. The reality is they weren't planning and panicked and are now trying to cover up yet another knee jerk reaction.
this is not about blame
You appear to have missed Craig Whittaker’s comments yesterday And Boris’s failure to condemn him.
And meanwhile in Calderdale..
https://twitter.com/jamesdbaker1/status/1289470686931628032?s=21
The reality is they weren’t planning and panicked and are now trying to cover up yet another knee jerk reaction.
Absolutely. It just reinforces the impression that, right from the off, the government has dithered and procrastinated, then at the 59th minute of the 11th hour, been panicked into action.
And every time they've done so, their credibility has been further diminished. This week has been absolutely farcical and the result is that large numbers of people are just going to ignore the governments new rules.
They've only themselves to blame for that through their complete incompetence in every area, and the arrogance and entitlement of the whole Cummings affair, which was the catalyst for everything that's happened since and the rot really set in. From that point on the government had absolutely zero authority. They simply threw it away.
How they’ve pinpointed it to people visiting homes rather than where people work isn’t clear though.
A reminder that we’ve had a school closed here, because it ripped through the staff.
We still need (and should be working on solidly) plans for schools to get all kids in, and for more work places to have people back. That should be the priority. To enable this we need something more than “we’re not at a peak, so send you kids to school 5 days a week next month, and get commuting again”… because that is just an aim, a wish, a punt, a hope, a dream… not a plan. Hmm… what does that remind me of…? And who’s now running the country…?
That plan should probably include paying pubs to stay shut… but that’s just my opinion… some proper contact tracing, and an app, could have told us by now if that was needed… or what measures we could take to help them open safely and profitably (not one or the other).
Chris Witty stated last night that we’re at the limits of opening up and in future, compromises will have to be reached.
They’ve expanded on that today and said that opening up the schools will possibly involve having to shut the pubs
Now, in any sane country, you’d simply say ‘well, shut the pubs then’
Does anybody believe that that would be our governments initial thought process?
No. Me neither
Listening to Capital UK..
Caller - "Yeah me and my mate are travelling down to Brighton, we're in the car now. Rave weekend innit.
Going to see some mates and have a big one all weekend"
Radio presenter - "All socially distanced of course I presume?"
Caller - "Yeah of course"
Can't think why infections might be increasing.
I've decided to move into the local supermarket.
It's quite clear from the guidance that the only safe indoor space where you can see other people is when you're within reach of a contactless payment device.
I'll see if I can get one in my house and then everything will be okay.
Does anyone know if I need to connect it to the nearest 5G mast?
dazh you really should check your facts before wading in face first.
For Calderdale this data shows that rates of coronavirus are highest in Park and Warley electoral wards.
And where are these two wards, west of Halifax.
Halifax is home to a large South Asian community mainly of British ****stanis from the Kashmir region, which originally moved to the area for employment in the textile industry. The majority of the community lives in the west central Halifax region of the town.
Where's the bar you posted a reference to, doesn't look like the middle of Halifax. Look the next big spike may well be due to the bars etc. but at the moment they are not the main cause in these areas, be pre-emptive by all means and close them (I don't think pubs should have re-opened and the furlough scheme should have been tailored earlier to take support away from businesses that could get back to work and put suitable measures in place, and fed to industries like hospitality). Deal with the root causes. Idiots like Whittaker don't help but don't let his obvious bias cloud the real issues.
Let me rephrase my earlier comment, this should not be about be about blame.
Does anybody believe that that would be our governments initial thought process?
Yep, they've cocked up, again, and now roll out the experts to try and sort out their political mess. The whole annoucing the restrictions on Twitter was all part of the standard leak it before announcing it mentality, this time it wasn't the sort of announcement you could quietly bury if it didn't go down well.
Bet a lot of the local councils had no idea it was coming either, they certainly had no idea of the detail.
The school that shut at the end of term was east Halifax (mostly white area)… I’m dreading it ripping through any school in west Halifax next month… because so many kids live with, or next door and effectively with, so many older and infirm relatives.
but at the moment they are not the main cause in these areas
You don’t know that. Sorry, but you just don’t. I hope you’re right, given what bars and pubs look like this weekend.
(I don’t think pubs should have re-opened and the furlough scheme should have been tailored earlier to take support away from businesses that could get back to work and put suitable measures in place, and fed to industries like hospitality)
Yes, yes, yes.
Bet a lot of the local councils had no idea it was coming either, they certainly had no idea of the detail.
Lisa Nandy was on channel 4 news last night saying that nobody got any warning until a couple of hours before it dropped, when they were summoned to a conference call by little Matty Handjob and informed what was going ahead.
Lots of questions were asked, but he didn’t have any answers, as at that point they still hadn’t actually decided what the new rules were going to be.
That was 2 hours before they announced the lockdown. Have a think about that for a minute...
They were literally scrawling out on the back of a *ing fag packet, right at the death, rules that would massively impact the lives of 4.6 million people.
An absolute *ing shambles!!!
The shear incompetence is breathtaking! It’s criminally negligent! As it has been from day one, with Boris not bothering his fat, lazy arse enough to even turn up to COBRA meetings. That pretty much set the tone for everything that’s happened since
Relax – johnson says he’ll be working flat out during the summer hols.
But then immediately said he’d be going on holiday.
How can you tell the difference?
I stand by my statement that pointing fingers at one group could cause complacency in another so shouldn’t be done.
Pointing fingers at one group is obviously the wrong approach. But you still need to deal with the issues in that group, not wanting to talk about it openly in case it gets abused by those with another agenda would be counter productive, though this may require an ability to communicate that is clearly beyond this government
Be interested in the numbers behind the statement that the virus "ripped through" the staff at a school - 2-3 schools in Derby were closed after outbreaks but I didn't see any mention in any official announcements or social media gossip to suggest that the virus was "ripping through" at any of the locations. Statements like that need to be supported to avoid what might be small and well contained incidents prompting unnecessary alarm and over reaction.
Daughters gymnastics squad have had their first face to face training session today. A few nervous and tearful looking parents, the kids seemed to enjoy it mind, even though display gymnastics (think cheerleading pyramids, throws and tumbles) is a bit tricky when everyone is 2 metres apart. But great to see them back together with friends and picking up where the left off. They should have just got back from Eurogym in Iceland if the year had gone to plan.
An absolute ****ing shambles!!!
The shear incompetence is breathtaking! It’s criminally negligent! As it has been from day one, with Boris not bothering his fat, lazy arse enough to even turn up to COBRA meetings. That pretty much set the tone for everything that’s happened since
^^ This,and every day I think "Who's going to change things?"
Sir Keir Rodney Starmer?
Well he is chipping away at things ,and at PMQ does make Bojo look like the bluffer that he always was, but if you look into the distance for people coming through the ranks (in any party),that have competence, integrity and good qualities, who do you see that gives any hope for the future?
Now, in any sane country, you’d simply say ‘well, shut the pubs then’
Does anybody believe that that would be our governments initial thought process?
This is the crux of it. Even with the furlough scheme in place, and even if it was extended, the large pub chains are losing tons of money. That brexit 'spoons idiot probably has a hotline to 10 Downing St. Just think, we're very possibly in the next few weeks going to get to the point in this country where the government of the day prioritises 'the inalienable right of every Englishman to go down the pub' over and above our kid's right to an education.
we’re very possibly in the next few weeks going to get to the point in this country where the government of the day prioritises ‘the inalienable right of every Englishman to go down the pub’ over and above our kid’s right to an education.
Will be a key decision moment, the potential failure of the pub industry or the potential loss of those kids education and mental well being
I think I know where I’d be putting my money on that particular call.
One generates money, one costs money
Hmmmmmm.... which will it be?
The private schools will still be able to open ok though, right?
If they don't open the schools then they will have to pay a fortune in extending furlough or more universal credit for those who can't work due to looking after kids.
I would be amazed if they didn't prioritise schools
Is it as black and white as that though, schools vs pubs?
Infection rates across a lot of boroughs are dropping but have pubs. My family lives in Norfolk and they've had no cases for a while now. Its certain clusters where rates are increasing. (I'm not saying its an Asian thing, there will be multiple groups involved).
Although pubs are going to be a driver when you get adults getting smashed up and slobbering each other. Perhaps put a limit on intoxication and require breathalysing prior entry to a pub.
I would be amazed if they didn’t prioritise schools
I don’t know if you’ve seen who the education secretary is or if you’re familiar with the earlier work of Gavin ‘Frank Spencer’ Williamson
Hmmmmmm…. which will it be?
Trickier than that. Without schools you need alternate childcare or people wont be going back to workplace. Hence why they were keen on getting them reopened.
@binners yeah I see your point there.
I don't think they will let that mouth breather anywhere near the decision though. He will be told what to say
I find it terrifying that an imbecile like him is in charge of our education system.
Rebecca Long Bailey didn’t do much as shadow education secretary but she did look at him with total incredulity, when he made his statement about the schools not reopening until September, and asked him ‘what have you actually been doing for the last few months?
A very valid question
Can't be too many of the cabinet people don't think that of though
I was thinking exactly that as I posted it. It’s absolutely certain that this country has never seen a cabinet stuffed with such complete non-entities. Political pygmies
Boris is so painfully needy and insecure, he does suffer from ‘tall poppies’ theory, we know, but even so...
Gavin Williamson?
Liz Truss?
Priti Patel?
Grant Schapps?
And, somewhat unbelievably, they’re not even the worst of them
It’s a good job we don’t find ourselves in a situation that requires strong, decisive, intelligent leadership. Otherwise we’d be ****ed!
Oh....
Both pubs and schools will be open and we'll wear the consequences. It won't be pretty but it won't be disastrous either.
(hmmm....I should back that up with calculations...it's mostly an informed guess for now)
Maybe we could combine schools and pubs in some way?
Actually... I’m prepared to put my house on one of the cabinet having already asked that question
Probably Gavin Williamson
Perhaps put a limit on intoxication and require breathalysing prior entry to a pub.
Funnily enough, that's been the law for a very long time already, and if it had been enforced more seriously then a lot of Police and NHS costs could have been avoided
(hmmm….I should back that up with calculations…it’s mostly an informed guess for now)
Estimates put school transmission at about 50% of the total. We know what happens when we have 100%... you don’t really need sums. There’s a lot more information for informed guesses now. For me, it’s all about where to put the control measures for most impact.
Swab teachers twice a week? Shut down year groups completely when positives found? What about dual school siblings?
Swab teachers twice a week?
Teachers are immune and kids dont spread it. It'll be fine!
Had my first 'mass gathering' experience since restrictions eased today. The salubrious environs of Wetherby services. I sat and people watched outside while Zoe grabbed some food. I would say easily 95% compliance with mask wearing which was way higher than I expected. What really interested me though was the demographic of the 5% - almost without exception they were 30-something white male gym bunnies.
This amused me:
Robert West, a professor of health psychology at University College London, agreed. “Putting a brake on further easing of the lockdown will probably not reduce infection rates but it may slow the speed with which they rise,” he said.
“The government needs to grasp the nettle and recognise that it needs to follow Scotland’s example and use the next few weeks to get to zero Covid-19 before the autumn – and then things can start to ease safely,”
They’ve known all along what they need to do. They’ve just got no desire to actually do it.
Their priorities are different
Hence locking down far too late and easing lockdown far too early.
I predict they’ll start acting towards make the full return to school buildings safe a few weeks after the term starts.
Anyway, shielding is over vulnerable folk, get back to work… you can trust your workmates not to have spent the last few weeks doing anything that will put you at risk… and don’t ask about the contact tracing app…
What really interested me though was the demographic of the 5% – almost without exception they were 30-something white male gym bunnies.
Interesting - masks seem to be almost a fashion item among that demographic round here. Quite a few parents without masks but kids wearing them when I had to nip into town this morning.
Zero Covid is not going to happen. Second lockdown is not going to happen either. So what to do? Which brake do you release?
Schools will be going back. Transmissions will increase. Cases will increase. Deaths will increase. But the vulnerable will now be better protected by testing. My personal prediction is a modest second seasonal wave, mixed in with influenza, but a zero sum game: lower influenza will be offset by increased COVID19. If you want a number, less than 30k excess deaths over the winter.
I hope you're right TiRed, we need it to be.
It's starting to affect me at work (supermarket home deliveries), seeing all these vulnerable adults being too scared to go out after months stuck inside their homes. What should be their place of happiness and security some now see as a prison. A few have had literally no actual human contact through the whole of this. One has us deliver the shopping into their garage, put the frozen into an old chest freezer and the rest in a coolbox. They then won't touch any of it for 24 hours. They're living alone too and the neighbours have told me that not a soul has been let inside that house since the end of March. They are not well and have various health issues that are normally not life-limiting but mean that if they get sick it's pretty much curtains.
We desperately need proper guidance and leadership leading up to the winter and I don't see it anywhere in Westminster. I fear a big upswing in infections come the end of autumn.
Zero Covid is not going to happen.
A political choice.
Second lockdown is not going to happen either.
A political choice.
There should be no need to talk about a second “lockdown” (we haven’t had a lockdown anyway, there has been not a single day where I was told I couldn’t leave me home, or had to justify why I was leaving it)… the government made it clear that it would relax measures once we had the virus under control, and had track and trace measures in place including a tracing app (they were too scared of using the “isolate” word, but we knew what they meant)… they then changed their mind and relaxed measures before any of that was achieved and in place. The balance of restrictions and deaths that we have coming up later this year should always be seen in that light… they have made the situation we find ourselves in this summer, and that directly effects what this winter will bring, and limits their choices in how to respond to it greatly.
https://twitter.com/alexselbyb/status/1289689256617750528?s=21
I run a little barber shop in a very white, reasonably affluent area on the edge of Bradford so I get to listen to lots of people everyday. Things that stand out at the moment, apart from the obvious 'its the asians wot dunnit' are...
There aren't enough deaths anymore so people are becoming suspicious of whether its a big con?
Far more people than I could ever have imagined actually believe in conspiracy theorys. Combine this with the governments mixed messaging and you have disaster.
Our few Polish customers tell us that their Polish family and friends believe its all about control.
All in all its a bit scary, I never realised how many crazy people there were out there. It seems that until the death rate rises again nobody is listening. This lockdown has basically just frightened those that were already behaving even more and had no impact whatsoever on anyone else.
My own personal fear is the schools. As Tired said, families with more than one sibling in school means that in reality the whole school is a bubble surely?
Schools do their best to stop mixing between different classes and year groups but as soon as the kids are out of the gate they meet up in their usual social groups.
I've found the "kids aren't infectious" line quite irritating in the way I found the initial "masks are pointless" line irritating. Slowly it's being recognised that kids are transmitting the virus and the age at which they are both at risk and a risk to others is now down to the very youngest:
as soon as the kids are out of the gate they meet up in their usual social groups.
They're doing that right now, not being at school hasn't effected that.
But when they go back to school you can add their class group to their social group, and given the cross over between the various class, social and family groups of kids much of a school can potentially be contaminated by one point of entry. So in answer to mugboo's final paragraph question the best answer is yes.
Edit: in one French Lycée 40% of kids tested positive for antibodies, given what we now know about the number of false negatives in the antibody tests it's likely that over 60% of kids had had the virus. The school was the main vector of transmision in the community.
Far more people than I could ever have imagined actually believe in conspiracy theorys. Combine this with the governments mixed messaging and you have disaster.
This has been an eye-opener for me. Genuinely thought that level of idiocy was an American thing but I reckoned without good old British common sense.
I agree with TiRed - zero Covid is pretty much impossible to achieve, certainly from the position we are in now. That's the fault of decisions made by our politicians a few months back now.
I think realistically a second "lockdown" can't be done either. Not without martial law to support enforcement. The Police didn't have the resources - or the direction - to enforce the first one. There's no chance of another one working without serious civil disobedience and disorder, which may well cost more lives directly and indirectly than TiReds forecast up there.
For those of you wanting to go to the pub/gym, best get there before the schools go back.
There's a lot of people talking up the civil disobedience angle. Fretting about limited compliance was also used to justify not taking action initially, whereas in reality people were well ahead of the govt on that. I'm not convinced that the population is quite as sociopathic as it might appear from election results. Of course the govt has been doing its best to whip up hatred and division.
