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But there seem to be a few on here that assume that because it’s the Government’s plan it’s going to be wrong. Play the ball, not the man.
I agree in principle, and I'm aware my prejudice at their careless slaughter of 120,000 of their citizens is clouding my judgement, but he specifically stated that decisions would not be based on arbitrary dates, before very publicly stating a series of dates, so that the "subject to..." part of the announcement is completely overlooked. And the data behind the dates hasn't been detailed in any way.
They might finally be getting it right, but I'm not hopeful.
Whitty has just put up the slide showing deaths right now are at a similar level to the April peak. He must be pretty confident it will drop a lot more in the next two weeks.
But there seem to be a few on here that assume that because it’s the Government’s plan it’s going to be wrong. Play the ball, not the man.
This for me. Although there’s derision about the “data not dates” statement, the fact it’s there gives me confidence that at least a large element of the plan is driven and/or supported by the scientists, and I’ve a lot of confidence about what Whitty reports the style he goes it. Let’s face it, Science is the UK shining light in the pandemic as much as it can be.
careless slaughter of 120,000 of their citizens
I’m no support of Boris, but what an awful pointless vocabulary.
I’m aware my prejudice at their careless slaughter of 120,000 of their citizens
Give it a rest, yes they've not handled it brilliantly, but slaughter, come on.
Verb:slaughter:kill (people or animals) in a cruel or violent way, typically in large numbers.
"innocent civilians are being slaughtered"
Verb:slaughter:kill (people or animals) in a cruel or violent way,
I'd say dying struggling for breath as your lungs fill up with gunk and no sympathetic human contact to ease your situation is a pretty cruel way to go.
Look at the rate of decline. Or read Protons for Breakfast. The declining rate is substantially faster than the rate of decline from lockdown alone back last year, hence the actuals falling below the dotted line.
At this stage I think what Whitty is saying is correct. In 2 weeks time we can afford to do something (I'd have still been inclined to possibly delay by 4 or 5 and get that number lower still and more vaccinated, but that's just opinion and gut instinct, I have no data about why 8th March is bad but 15th or 22nd is better). The decision is that schools are first for the obvious benefits, and also the lower inherent risk to the majority of school users. Again, not underestimating the risk to staff - my wife goes in every day and takes that risk too.
Then we wait AT LEAST 5 weeks and see what effect it has had. And act on the data that tells us what we can do next.
Do you think Johnson is late for everything in his life? Has any of these briefings ever started less than 7 or 8 minutes late…..
He has to get his hair just right - important to have the right hair for the right situation. Could you really imagine Boris being inappropriately coifed for a serious situation. Or maybe he was just quaffing a few nerve calming ones. Or perhaps the speech writers realised they'd left something off the bingo card.
I’d say dying struggling for breath as your lungs fill up with gunk and no sympathetic human contact to ease your situation is a pretty cruel way to go.
When so many could have been avoided by looking at the experience of other nations or actually doing what your own scientists are suggesting you should do.
Then we wait AT LEAST 5 weeks and see what effect it has had. And act on the data that tells us what we can do next.
That's the point my faith in this government runs out.
I stress that I can't wait to be proved wrong and for this to work.
He has to get his hair just right – important to have the right hair for the right situation.
How long does it take to blow up a balloon?
@MCTD
Absolutely. I'm on the flipside of your coin.......I'm prepared to play the ball for now but prove me wrong, ignore the data and **** it up and I will be the first to say they ****ed it up.
As indeed they have time and again. But as I say, and maybe I'm naive - they might be right this time. As they were with vaccines.
I see the threads taken at turn away from sensible and helpful again, I’m out for a bit.
“When will this be over” FFS is kuenssberg thick or just irresponsible asking this after the clear need for data to inform of the next step.
I’m a supporter of the bbc but she does the Corp no favours.
Edit she’s just been usurped by an even more idiotic journo.
I’d say dying struggling for breath as your lungs fill up with gunk and no sympathetic human contact to ease your situation is a pretty cruel way to go.
I'd say being stabbed and dieing alone in a dark alley or park is also pretty crap.
What's your point?
How long does it take to blow up a balloon?
Maybe the ballon was busy running one of the departments. You'd think they could afford a Van de Graaff generator. Nice bit of technology would be just the thing for Boris.
Bojo aside - Whitty and Vallance are top of their game tonight.
I hope - and beginning to trust - that science is running the show finally.
Then we wait AT LEAST 5 weeks and see what effect it has had. And act on the data that tells us what we can do next.
I think thats the problem, Johnson has set these dates in stone (papers already have their headline dates)
while the slower more cautious approach this time is definitely to be applauded, its a gamble for Johns, hes in danger of having to u-turn again & create more resentment if they dont meet the dates
I hope – and beginning to trust – that science is running the show finally.
agreed, in general Johnson has got better at not overpromising and listening to the sceptics more than the scientists as he seemed determined to do last year
getting rid of cummings & brining in Stratton really does seem to have improved his the communication, which is critical
You’d think they could afford a Van de Graaff generator.
Vallance has one in his loft, but refuses to bring it in because Boris always lets Whitty do the ‘next slide please’ thing.
HTH.
RM.
Edit she’s just been usurped by an even more idiotic journo.
Incredibly Johnson was not the weak link tonight. The journo questions were dreadful.
its a gamble for Johns, hes in danger of having to u-turn again & create more resentment if they dont meet the dates
Again, maybe naive but I think that's where the scientists are starting to hold the whip hand. If they don't think the time is right, they can and should call it as such. Johnson can't really lose if he follows the science.
[and +1 for Cummings. I smell his hand over a lot of the **** ups of last year. Sitting in on the SAGE and manipulating]
Just been Pfizered.
Saw 2 of my old gp's there that have come out of retirement to help.
Sitting there for my 15 minute I actually started to get a little tearful, luckily no-one noticed.
It was so humbling to see the NHS and volunteers throwing themselves at this virus.
Teary again typing this.
they might be right this time. As they were with vaccines
They got lucky with a gamble in the vaccines, and thankfully have left the experts to sort out delivery. Every other gamble they've taken has gone horribly wrong.
Johnson has set these dates in stone (papers already have their headline dates)
I'm as annoyed at how the Press are reporting it as I am at the government for giving them the ammunition.
Could the increased apparent rate of case drop compared to the peak in April 2020, in the graph a few posts up, simply be down to the "Kent strain" having ripped through the socially mobile community and the fact that face coverings didn't become law UK wide until July... So it's struggling to find new hosts?
Bojo aside – Whitty and Vallance are top of their game tonight.
I hope – and beginning to trust – that science is running the show finally.
Over all, it feels like a much more considered approach than last year. With the agenda being to protect people.
As with my earlier post - my concern is the potential for things getting out of hand after easter. If it does end up being step three when things are shaking out then it would be a real fight to get things back when everyone is thinking we are going forward. That said - I'm also guessing the scientists will have quite a bit of head room built into the decision points.
Getting it to be just like flu doesn't quite feel right. Flu doesn't seem to leave as many people with long term debilitating conditions. There's probably a lot the government could do in terms of reducing risk by addressing wider societal issues. Although the CRG and their ilk want opening up and no further lock downs I cant see them going for actually investing money in society. Addressing the issues that drive increased susceptibility would seem to be as important as annual vaccinations, hand washing and masks.
@morecashthandash
Thanks for the reply. That is impressive. I'm in an old edwardian building and all the teachers abd some of the students used masks, but it's just impossible to keep any distance.
I think everyone is doing their best with what they have.
So when it goes wrong it's their fault, when it goes right it's lucky.
I like you, really, but your last few comments are very blinkered.
Play the ball, not the man.
Maybe you're right, I'd better take the evening off.
Whitty and Vallance are top of their game tonight.
Whitty Dodged the question on staggering the return to schools like an experienced politician.
when it goes right it’s lucky
I’ll take this… as well as being lucky, the government made some strong and important moves… taking on the liability to reduce time to approve vaccines, being prepared to spend much more than other countries, engaging with as many different international companies developing vaccines as possible, building up vaccine production sites with more urgency than other countries… and utilising the NHS for rollout.
That's what was so weird about vaccines the government approached it in such a different way from every other aspect of crisis!
Tho there is certainly an element of luck in vaccine development and production, I'd Sanofi/GSK version had worked better & Ox/AZ one had failed could have been different story ((Tbf I dunno what UKs contract with Sanofi looked like)
Of course there was luck… but the spread of investment and promises to purchase were wide, with big money to back that up… that was far better than betting big on just a few candidates, or small amounts on many candidates. Spread plus big spend improved our odds. Developing production sites before knowing which vaccines would come good was also key to making the most of the good luck when it manifested itself. It could all have been money wasted… but it was a good gamble. And, of course, shifting risk from the private sector to the public sector… as the government must always do when a crisis hits.
What depresses me is the 60,000 deaths new deaths, and countless damaged lives, after we knew we’d lucked out with vaccines, and had started rolling them out so early. What a waste. And all for what? The promise of a Christmas that never happened in the end anyway? And one day of full school attendance at the start of term? Why? Such a waste.
March 29th
The stay at home rule will end but people should stay local as much as possible
Did this mean I can travel outside of my area for exercise? E.g. go to the Peak District?
maybe coming to an end.
Not wishing to sound too pessimistic, but this will be the end of the first wave. The wave in which an essentially naive population of humans experienced a new pathogen for the first time. Yes I think the vaccine will protect from mortality and provide some protection for subsequent seasonal waves and new variants.
As for that decline on protons for breakfast, trust me EVERYONE is looking at all data sources for evidence of a signal in vaccine efficacy. Of course it's not that simple. There is additional immunity now that was not present previously in Lockdown 1, that can lead to a faster decline. There is currently no evidence across the nations that the half-life of the epidemic is different for cases and admissions and deaths, which is odd, because the group we are vaccinating most are not transmitters (they are die-ers). It will happen, but it is just early days.
Like I said, everyone is looking 😉 - half life in Lockdown 1 was 21 days.
Personally, I think the Government have got it largely right (for once) and I agree it feels like CMO and other scientists have more sway now the mekon has buggered off.
However, the messaging remains terrible. Every red top has the list of dates Bojo trotted out last night. This will be data driven but it seems that half the population are ignoring that part and are now booking holidays etc based on those dates alone. Bojo needed to present this 'roadmap' as a deal between Gov and the public. If the public continue to follow the rules, get vaccinated etc, then the good stuff will follow. Didn't read like that to me.
BTW @Poopscoop. I've read most this thread without contributing but I have to say I am really chuffed for you getting the jab. I realise what this means to you.
That’s what was so weird about vaccines the government approached it in such a different way from every other aspect of crisis!
There really is only one group of folk in this country that have any experience in mass vaccination, and that's GPs. the vaccine roll-out is largely being done by...GPs...the only decision that the govt made was "ask GPs to do this"
There’s a whole range of people doing it not just GPS. Hospitals doing Health/care staff. Community pharmacies now popping up and the big centres are doing a fair chunk. My one does 3000/day and we are a small centre compared to some.
There’s a whole range of people doing it not just GPS. Hospitals doing Health/care staff. Community pharmacies now popping up and the big centres are doing a fair chunk. My one does 3000/day and we are a small centre compared to some.
No, but I think the point is that the reason the vaccine roll out looks like its going well is going well is because gov' have left the NHS to do their job. This is the view im getting from a few of my NHS friends any way.
Personally, I think the Government have got it largely right (for once) and I agree it feels like CMO and other scientists have more sway now the mekon has buggered off.
The science is pretty clear here - vaccinate half the population, and you leave the younger half still susceptible (less likely to be admitted or die, but susceptible). Assume that perhaps 10-20% of this half have had it already. That leaves a pool of 40% (26M) of the population of presumably young and healthy, but susceptible people to infect when you release the brakes.
Now back to normal and R of 3-4, infect about 50% quickly and that would generate about 15M cases. If only a (very) small fraction (1/1000) need hospitals, things could get a bit busy with 15,000 admissions on a rapid basis. That's an optimistic evaluation.
I think the recommendation look very reasonable. A five week spacing is important here. Two weeks to watch cases decline. a week to follow admissions and a week to follow deaths. Add an extra week to confirm the trend in all three metrics and make a decision. That makes a huge amount of sense and you can see the thinking in the simple summary graphs.
Inevitably Pretty much every single paper lists the dates or counts them down on the front pages
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-the-papers-56163189
Given their crap track record they should be commended for recognising they're crap and letting local NHS Trusts get on with it.
They will no doubt take all the glory but if people are getting jabbed it's a small price to pay.
"Success has many Fathers, failure is an orphan"
Hi TiRed - at this point in time do you have an estimate of what percentage of the population has actually had Covid-19?
Assume that perhaps 10-20% of this half have had it already. That leaves a pool of 40% (26M) of the population of presumably young and healthy, but susceptible people to infect when you release the brakes.
And as the article I linked yesterday put it - buying the virus 26M lottery tickets, no surprise if it wins the jackpot and comes up with a nasty variant.
This will be data driven but it seems that half the population are ignoring that part and are now booking holidays etc based on those dates alone. Bojo needed to present this ‘roadmap’ as a deal between Gov and the public. If the public continue to follow the rules, get vaccinated etc, then the good stuff will follow
I think you give the public too much credit. Sure a lot of the messaging has been confusing but also a large number of the public are complete ****ing idiots.
As always, thanks @TiRed for explaining so succinctly where things lie. It's so easy to lose your way in the hyperbole and spin. Of course, this won't stop those numpties booking cheap non-refundable easyjet flights to more risky countries and being left high and dry if things change. I await their voxpop on the evening news from Heathrow with weary schadenfreude.
Most of the population aren't really interested in “The News”. That’s become abundantly obvious on many issues.
JoePud - completely agree re the NHS. I just wanted to point out it goes well beyond GPs.
My areas vaccition site is “GP led”. It’s actually run by a furloughed 747 pilot!
The expected rush of holiday enquiries hasn't happened today this may be due to our particular clientele being mainly well educated and older than the norm.
There's a tendency in our News reporting to be glib about qualification of how it's going to be possible to relax restrictions. 10 o'clock news last night on BBC was all these are the dates to begin and then glossing over that the dates are only possible if some strict conditions are met. Is this to fool the gullible, poor news reporting or to draw the fire from the CRG?
Hi TiRed – at this point in time do you have an estimate of what percentage of the population has actually had Covid-19?
Less than 20%. Note that serology now has to factor in proportion vaccinated. But to all intents vaccination = past infection as a means of protection
It’s actually run by a furloughed 747 pilot!
People that are used to command in complex systems are going to be good running other systems shokka! - and technically is the pilot now an ex-747 pilot? Since they've all been decommissioned 🙁 I'm immensely impressed by your volunteering btw. When things are back to normal (and they will return, I am in no doubt), you'll be able to say you made a difference.
And hot off the press! I think I have evidence of vaccine efficacy where I thought I would. early days, but COVID deaths in males 75+ seem to have a signal of interest. Code checking now...
That’s good news!
Yes, sadly correct as the jumbos have been turned into Pepsi cans now 😞.
The number of volunteers stepping up is amazing. On top of all the people on a local level helping out in all sorts of ways throughout the pandemic.
10 o’clock news last night on BBC was all these are the dates to begin and then glossing over that the dates are only possible if some strict conditions are met. Is this to fool the gullible, poor news reporting or to draw the fire from the CRG?
All the assumptions in the models are on the cautious side - lower vaccine uptake and effectiveness, no seasonal benefit etc - so everything would have to be worse than expected for us to fail the "tests"
Is it a real concern that once it runs through the younger ages again it does mutate into something much more dangerous to them? I know the Spanish flu was different, but it ended up killing multiple age groups at different stages in the pandemic.
I was really hoping that the rule of 6 would return sooner 🙁
You'll be meeting up outside in groups like that very soon stcolin... it's just indoors meet-ups that need to be avoided for longer. Wise I think.
Given the end of lock down is the 21st of June, if ive not been vaccinated by then i'll be making a point of keeping to myself until I am.
I'd be bloody annoyed to make it through the last 18 months only to get covid a few weeks before Im due to get a jab!
Given the end of lock down is the 21st of June, if ive not been vaccinated by then i’ll be making a point of keeping to myself until I am.
I was very surprised that day was given that way, a lot of people won't have had the second jab by then.
Just FYI if it helps:
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I was very surprised that day was given that way, a lot of people won’t have had the second jab by then.
a lot of people won't have had any jab by then.
Hopefully vaccine passports, if they come, won't be another test and trace lobbed out to the private sector.
Going to be interesting comparing what happens with Scotland vs England. If data not dates gets more community buy in. The date becomes the goal not the outcome that enables the change. Less motivation to put in the hard work if people are just waiting to get to a release date.
Think they are assuming 80 million vaccinations by then so first jab should be done and dusted for all,
The number of volunteers stepping up is amazing. On top of all the people on a local level helping out in all sorts of ways throughout the pandemic.
It's an interesting 'experiment' on the No such thing as Society vs Big Society debate.
Results are in. Some people are absolute stars. Some are pricks. And then there's everything in between.
so first jab should be done and dusted for all
Everyone to have had their first jab by 21st June? I’ve not read read that anywhere.
tpbiker Full Member
Given the end of lock down is the 21st of June, if ive not been vaccinated by then i’ll be making a point of keeping to myself until I am.
Feel exactly the same way, I won't be going into any cafes/pubs till 3-4 weeks after my first jab. At 39 that probably won't be till mid/late August, there's no way I'm risking long Covid!
Think they are assuming 80 million vaccinations by then so first jab should be done and dusted for all,
Nope, all adults to be offered first vaccine by 31/7
If the 66M population is equally split by age groups, under 18's will be about 1/5 of the population, give or take so that's about 52M over 18's. Your 80M might be right but I think you're underestimating the effect of the boosters on getting through the younger age groups (counter, lower than 100% uptake on those offered)
Just FYI if it helps:
indeed! im so excited for that stay local order to be lifted.
Nope, all adults to be offered first vaccine by 31/7
The modelers are assuming 4 million per week from March 21 so that 52 million jabs in the 13 weeks to June 21 enough to do the whole adult population, second does for those already vaccinated and first jabs for the remainder.
Some people should be getting two jabs in that period though, so there will be others getting no jab. I've no idea how many "some" is... but I can see why the government aren't saying what you're claiming Mefty. July is more realistic target to publish.
There’s a tendency in our News reporting to be glib about qualification of how it’s going to be possible to relax restrictions. 10 o’clock news last night on BBC was all these are the dates to begin and then glossing over that the dates are only possible if some strict conditions are met. Is this to fool the gullible, poor news reporting or to draw the fire from the CRG?
If these dates become too strongly embedded in the public consciousness then it'd take a firm and confident government to step up and delay them if the statistics don't support them. I'm not sure whether the current government is up to that. They did (partly) roll back on the Christmas relaxation but I'm not sure they'd be able to resist the demand to follow the schedule they laid out yesterday irrespective of the facts on the ground.
Those are England only figures so plenty of leeway.
@Kryton57 - here's a simpler infographic that'll answer many people's questions about the roadmap:
[img] 
[/img]
Feel exactly the same way, I won’t be going into any cafes/pubs till 3-4 weeks after my first jab. At 39 that probably won’t be till mid/late August, there’s no way I’m risking long Covid
It’s like being in the Nam. If you are going to get it you may as well get it on day one. Getting COVID in July is akin to being shot on the last day of the war..
So Mefty, if you think all adults will get the first jab by June 21st... why is it only you saying so? Are the government and NHS just being cautious with their dates? I wouldn't blame them if they were, but I think it's just as likely that they've looked more closely at what the vaccine rollout can realistically achieve... either way, once/if it does look as if all adults will be offered their first jab in that timescale, with a reasonable degree of confidence, I'm sure it'll become big news everywhere.
.....mmm.... beer gardens....
Feel exactly the same way, I won’t be going into any cafes/pubs till 3-4 weeks after my first jab. At 39 that probably won’t be till mid/late August, there’s no way I’m risking long Covid!
Good that your employment status allows you to worry about this. Not a dig at you, I am 100% with your thinking on this, just a shame that millions of others have been, will continue to be or shall soon be thrown under the bus
Although I saw a comment about 'local lockdowns can still used where needed' or something along those lines - I've not seen anything mentioning tiering? Is that idea thankfully gone?
RM.
Still no talk of us teachers being vaccinated anytime soon.
I'm expected back on the 8th with no social distancing in the classroom, and a shared staffroom with 11 others and no social distancing.
Are the government and NHS just being cautious with their dates?
In a few weeks when priority groups 1-9 will start to need their second injections, we're going to have to double our through-put to maintain the same trajectory. Given that we're finding it difficult to staff our site currently , at the moment I don't know how we're going to do this...
it’d take a firm and confident government to step up and delay them if the statistics don’t support them
As I said last night, I'm feeling that Government is now listening to science far more, so it wouldn't be Gov that delays the dates if needed....they can just say that science told them to. No lose situation. And science don't need to be populist, they just need to be right.
anagallis_arvensis - Full Member
Good that your employment status allows you to worry about this. Not a dig at you, I am 100% with your thinking on this, just a shame that millions of others have been, will continue to be or shall soon be thrown under the bus
I know you're not and I couldn't agree more. I said to my wife last night your exact words, teachers like yourself (and other professions) are being chucked under a bus. I wouldn't want to be in classrooms full of kids and that's got nothing to do with the fact that I don't like kids!
FWIW my job does entail going out and surveying buildings but it's pretty safe regarding Covid. I did nearly there myself or a window yesterday.
.
Still no talk of us teachers being vaccinated anytime soon.
No.
[ can't expand on that answer without breaking the ****ing swear filter ]
why is it only you saying so?
It's not - plenty of people have noted how cautious the government have been on vaccine rollout - not unreasonably. But as far as this precise calculation, I bother to look at underlying assumptions, can count and multiply -other prefer to post diarrheticly.
Aren't you a clever boy.