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Aye, my parents (60s good health) have got appointments for theirs too. That's Fife.
Most places are already nearly finished on the 70+ population, apart from the trickier ones (Ill, home bound, etc) and are moving to the 65+ to fill their gaps. It’s a good thing imho.
"They really are trying to get this thing right."
As hard as it is to grasp this concept given the government's track record, they are in fact getting this right. Who'd have thunk that Matt Hancock, the man who was handing PPE contracts out to his mates would actually be both ahead of the game with regards vaccine procurement and let the NHS and local authorities roll out the programme instead of serco or some other nefarious chancers.
I read a Guardian article which described how Hancock was obsessed by a disaster movie about a pandemic that focused on the politics behind the rush to procure vaccines, he used the film as a meme throughout meetings to make sure everyone was focused on the issues coming down the line. Reminded me of when G W Bush became obsessed by a book about the 1919 flu pandemic and pestered everyone about it until they let him set up the pandemic response team. Reminds us that even a broken clock is right twice a day.
Having my daily look at figures, looks like we're just these last few days back to pre Christmas ballpark, in terms of new infections and +%.
6 weeks plus to get that sorted, what a mess that was.
Having my daily look at figures, looks like we’re just these last few days back to pre Christmas ballpark, in terms of new infections and +%.
6 weeks plus to get that sorted, what a mess that was.
Yep. All these folk shouting about how the figures have come down and it's time to relax restrictions really need to take a good look at how high they were and just how far they still have to go to get back to Autumn 2020 levels.
As hard as it is to grasp this concept given the government’s track record, they are in fact getting this right.
To be honest, I think it's the NHS getting this right, and the government claiming the glory. Happy to have my cynicism proved wrong. I suppose they got the initial vaccine order in early.
she’s only 65, walks 15 miles a day
Fair play!! I think 15 miles would kill me!
Yep. All these folk shouting about how the figures have come down and it’s time to relax restrictions really need to take a good look at how high they were and just how far they still have to go to get back to Autumn 2020 levels.
It's not helped by all the papers printing headlines and stories about how 'Summer is Saved!', the adverts everywhere encouraging holiday and cruise (of all things!!) bookings now to avoid disappointment and the general theme of 'We've passed the peak, back to normal!' that seems to be shouted around. I completely get wanting to see normality again, god knows I'm desperate for it, but people really have to realise that we have a massive battle on our hands for the next 6 months that we need to win otherwise next winter is going to be just as bad. If a new strain pops up that bypasses our current vaccines (which I think will happen at some point) we are in real danger of going back to square one incredibly quickly. It took me a long time to explain to my parents that while figures are dropping we are still 10,000 above the number of people in hospital compared to the peak of the first wave and that we have the same amount of work to do as we did then still to go.
TiRed's posts give me hope that we are winning the fight but then you go outside or on social media and see the high levels of ignorance from the general public and realise that a lot of work and effort still has to be done to get us to where we want to be.
TiRed’s posts give me hope that we are winning the fight but then you go outside or on social media and see the high levels of ignorance from the general public and realise that a lot of work and effort still has to be done to get us to where we want to be.
Had a look at some reports on israel today, makes our compliance levels look positively communist.
Reminds us that even a broken clock is right twice a day
Unless the hands have dropped off.
Unless the hands have dropped off.
The absence of Cummings thankfully saved us from that.
To be honest, I think it’s the NHS getting this right, and the government claiming the glory. Happy to have my cynicism proved wrong. I suppose they got the initial vaccine order in early.
I would say that's pretty true. Amazing what happens when the Tories leave people to do jobs they are good at.
Everything reluctantjumper said… I second.
I am on the Shielding List, and live in the NHS Tayside region. At a daily Breifing this week the Scottish Health Secretary said to call the NHS Scotland Covid Vaccination Hotline if an appointment hasn't been received by the end of this week.
We didn't get any post on Thursday or Friday, and I was hoping the letter would come today. It didn't, so I phoned the Hotline. The first fella could only read me a scripted statement, but said to phone back and press "1", to rearrange an appointment, and they would be able to help. I redialled, but the lady couldn't find me in the system. It turns out the National Hotline doesn't cover Tayside!. I called the NHS Tayside general line, and the lady said there was no information for me, and no-one to forward my call to, but that I should call my GP.
The GP website has a big red banner saying "Don't call with Covid vaccine enquiries".
I don't want to come across as a dick, but do want to make sure I haven't been missed out. WWSTWD?
Everything reluctantjumper said… I second.
Thirded
Interestingly I went to a different Aldi to do the weekly shop. We are in between two, one in a fairly "interesting" former industrial town in one local authority area, the other in a slightly "rougher" former industrial town in a different local authority area, with a noticeably higher infection rate. The difference in attitudes to social distancing and using sanitiser at the entrance between the two stores, if typical of attitudes across the areas, probably explains a lot. Though mask wearing was pretty good I have to say, can't remember the last time I saw someone in a shop without one.
Have a look for contact details for Tayside?
scotroutes
Full MemberYep. All these folk shouting about how the figures have come down and it’s time to relax restrictions really need to take a good look at how high they were and just how far they still have to go to get back to Autumn 2020 levels.
Yup. That's a recurring problem isn't it, "things got slightly better, time to relax". When the 7 day deaths average is still higher than it ever got in the first peak.
I don't see a hope in hell we will lock down as long as we should do.
Then full on on summer/autumn, then return to lock down next Winter... So people can return to complaining that "lockdowns don't work" all over again without a hint of irony.
@Nobeerinthefridge As I said:
I called the NHS Tayside general line, and the lady said there was no information for me, and no-one to forward my call to, but that I should call my GP.
The GP website has a big red banner saying “Don’t call with Covid vaccine enquiries”.
I would add, she said that they'd been inundated with Covid Vaccine queries all day.
Surprised that people have been less active over the last 10 months, I would have hoped that this pandemic would be a wake-up call for us all when it comea to our health and fitness
https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2021/feb/06/inactivity-is-an-ongoing-pandemic-the-life-saving-impact-of-moving-your-body?CMP=fb_gu&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook#Echobox=1612608209
Quick thnks from Mrs P for the advice given here recently (and taken)
News today is - ‘Not Covid’ (negative test results for both of us arrived this morning!) so likely either gastric flu or food poisoning. The relief is huge. Hugs. No more separate rooms.
Going back to before we got the home kit sent off, her fever wasn’t abating and her calling 111 and answering Qs had resulted in an ambulance being sent out. They measured vitals and their NHS oximeter read her levels @ 98 while our £25 Amaz*n Prime special said 96 (We did an on the spot comparison so I could be better informed)
They also state upon examining her that it ‘could be covid’, especially with the spiking fever, confusion, breathlessness and a little cough’. (I think since that the coughing was sheer nerves and anxiety as said cough has gone now.)
Thankfully their/my concerns/suspicions were misgiven.
Has been a mad stressful week all in all. Just massively relieved, but still being nurse and still can’t sleep, and she’s still spiking fevers 39.7 and is really sick, not kept food in for a week - so will call docs again tomorrow see if can arrange a videocall.
With her immune system now presumably at all-time low I can’t risk going shopping so back to 100% home delivery and quarantining the **** out of everything.
Last time I was collecting the dog’s medication (they now deliver it through car window in car park) it seemed as if the world was pretty much normal in this here ‘lockdown’ (ie busy, lots of traffic and peds, and people walking around town with no masks on).
Anyway, thnks STW for advice. Now need to try and grab a doze before the next shift.
Tip: If you have an oximeter at home and wear nail varnish - remember to rotate the finger sideways as the varnish can interfere with the reading, at least so said the ambulance responders.
Surprised that people have been less active over the last 10 months, I would have hoped that this pandemic would be a wake-up call for us all when it comea to our health and fitness
Maybe, but with gyms, fitness classes, swimming pools and sports facilities closed(or people not wanting to use them due to transmission risk), and team sports disrupted, it's not surprising. A lot of people need the social aspect of sport and fitness to encourage them along.
The news doing the rounds about the OxAz vaccine efficacy against the South African strain. Does anyone have the numbers involved with that efficacy.
All Ive seen is a report of “significantly reduced” but not being given a number to provide meaning.
All Ive seen is a report of “significantly reduced” but not being given a number to provide meaning.
At this stage in the game I would take significantly reduced.
Surprised that people have been less active over the last 10 months, I would have hoped that this pandemic would be a wake-up call for us all when it comea to our health and fitness
In some respects this doesn't surprise me, weather hasn't been great since September to entice people outside, plus the fatigue even without exercising can be a huge battle to face after catching Covid.
Surprised that people have been less active over the last 10 months, I would have hoped that this pandemic would be a wake-up call for us all when it comea to our health and fitness
Homeschooling the kids 9am-1pm
Work 2-8pm, home by 9pm
No trips away & no grandparents to help babysitting if I was
Im definitely managing less exercise
Surprised that people have been less active over the last 10 months, I would have hoped that this pandemic would be a wake-up call for us all when it comea to our health and fitness
Homeschooling the kids 9am-1pm
Work 2-8pm, home by 9pm
Im definitely managing less exercise
I'm not suprised. In a normal day lots of people would get exercise just going about their normal lives, walking about office, out for lunch, popping to the shops, going to meet friends down the pub. People's steps must be down massively being home based most of the time and getting enthusiastic about doing some physical exercise on your own from your door in winter must be really difficult for most.
It's scary the amount of long term, side affects there will be from lockdowns.
That is a genuinely thought provoking piece Klunk. Ta.
he's not wrong, that's for sure.
Great piece by Mitchell. Especially the knock on to taxation rules
Tragic
I can't help but feel in this sort of incident (actually the thought came long ago wrt speeding motorists, drink drivers, mobile users) that when something like this happens, then instead of some poor police officer having to go round someone's house and tell them their Dad / husband / daughter / whatever isn't going home tonight, the person responsible should have to do it.
"I'm really sorry your wife will spend the rest of her life in a wheelchair, but I really needed to check a text urgently"
I can’t help but feel in this sort of incident (actually the thought came long ago wrt speeding motorists, drink drivers, mobile users) that when something like this happens, then instead of some poor police officer having to go round someone’s house and tell them their Dad / husband / daughter / whatever isn’t going home tonight, the person responsible should have to do it.
I think this has happened in the past, it's discussed in Jon Ronsons book So You're Been Publicly Shamed. It doesn't really work its reform needed not punishment. But yeh, this is a whole other discussion. Check the book out if you want to find out more.
Maybe. But it's not publicly shaming, I mean face to face with the person or people whose life you just ruined.
Given that the Mountain Rescue teams are sharing that story nationally on FB and specifically asking people not to jump to conclusions and/or criticise, I think we're better off respecting their wishes.
The news doing the rounds about the OxAz vaccine efficacy against the South African strain. Does anyone have the numbers involved with that efficacy.
Not found the preprint. But a few comments; first the study is in 2000 subjects, that's a 1000 per arm. Now if the attack rate looks like some of the other studies, that will be perhaps 12 events. Now how do those 12 events partition? 6/6, 4/8. 2/10? etc. There is very little data. The Over 65's amounted to 1/413 vs. 1/440-odd. Basically the spit of TWO events.
I suspect that there will be some protection from hospitalisations That's important. Symptoms? Maybe, Sterile protection - perhaps not. The vaccine raises antibodies against multiple sites (called epitopes). One of those is very potent and the target of Lilly's banlanivimab. The SA strain has a mutation that stops that binding. BUT the vaccine has other antibodies too which may be less potent but still bind. So a diminished but not zero effect.
[tl:dr] Beware LOUD reports founded on limited preliminary data.
PS Work is a bit mad, so I've been away a bit of late. But this is important. I've not seen anything to say Ohoh... But I have seen a two-week decline in cases-admissions-deaths.
Beware LOUD reports founded on limited preliminary data.
PS Work is a bit mad, so I’ve been away a bit of late. But this is important. I’ve not seen anything to say Ohoh… But I have seen a two-week decline in cases-admissions-deaths.
Thanks TiRed for the considered post.
Not posting this attempting to scare and thanks for that post TiRed.
Just posting for discussion purposes.
South Africa halts AstraZeneca jab over new strain.
Basically sounds like they are awaiting more information/guidance.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-55975052
Still as predictable as ever... In a good way. I have yet to add vaccinations to the covariate mix as the data is only national, but deaths should decouple from cases eventually, then admissions.
That looks good news TiRed, with deaths dropping below predicted, which I thought I’d spotted in Raw data from Gov.uk
Don’t get too excited - the fast last drop in deaths is reporting delay, I am afraid. The last three to five days of deaths should be viewed with caution. It’s one reason for modelling only to two weeks before current date. But the system is very predictable from the input of cases now. I look forward to when it isn’t.
With the vaccinations we've done already when would we hope to see an extra affect on deaths over and above the affect of lockdown?
Deaths now tend to be people who caught it 3-4 weeks ago, so should be having an impact soon.
With the vaccinations we’ve done already when would we hope to see an extra affect on deaths over and above the affect of lockdown?
Completely unqualified, but I'd say in 4-6 weeks time, we should see the over 80's departure rate dropping lower than it's been since last march, or is that too simplistic?.
Look at the average age of those who have died. Not just the numbers. Another month at least, probably longer. The system is predictable, but slower than people think. Look at lockdowns. About three weeks to show any effect on deaths.
Completely unqualified, but I’d say in 4-6 weeks time, we should see the over 80’s departure rate dropping lower than it’s been since last march, or is that too
That was my simplistic view but I have a feeling it might link back to previous predictions from those who do know.
Why has the last 5 days experienced greater reporting lag than previously?
I always compare data to the previous week, knowing that certain days have trends, with sun/mon considerably lower than the rest.
What is the average age of death? Still high I assume from your comment?
Why has the last 5 days experienced greater reporting lag than previously?
It’s pretty common and has been throughout. I normally remove the data from most plots. Average age is not reported as far as I have seen. That will be weekly ons data.
South Africa study "published" as screenshots of a presentation on Twitter. Anyway the result was 19/750 (vaccine) vs. 23/717 (placebo). A vaccine efficacy VE of 1 - (19/750)/(23/717) = 21%. Confidence limits will be wide. Study can draw no conclusions of interest. Nobody over 40 in the trial.
"In the future, everyone will be famous for five minutes" never was more true. This is not how science should work.
https://twitter.com/mugecevik/status/1358539975122419712
Thank you for posting that Tired.
Now imagine you describing what that means to Cletus from the Simpsons 🤣
Actually the Twitter thread is quite good
So a trial that was probably too small to show an effect turned out to be too small to show an effect, but this is then reported as there not being an effect. Gotta love the media.
This guy has some 'interesting' tweets. I believe we discussed this guy before? Even reading every tweet you'd think the end of the world was nigh.
https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1358468446548357123?s=20
Actually the Twitter thread is quite good
Indeed - FT arguably irresponsible breaking the story in the first place.
Sorry TiRed - I’d misunderstood you - I’m guessing you were saying your graphs had a lag for recent days, rather than the gov.U.K. Data being worse than normal. I’m guessing you record by date of death rather than the volatile date of report?
Watching various channels around Europe I've come to the conclusion there is now a signifant risk associated with taking a Covid test. The obvious one being prosecution for being out whilst positive.
Through the first part of the pandemic the death rate as a proportion of positive tests declined. In many countries that is being inversed while the level of Covid in sewage water increases.
In France the peak of positive tests occured in the run up to Christmas because people were keen not to infect their parents or grandparents. But they couldn't give **** about contaminating anyone else so just get on with life if they think they might have Covid without going anywhere near a test centre which would mean a significant loss of civic rights.
The "punishment" of people testing positive is counter productive.
Agreed - financially compensating a +ve would work better.
Although the logical follow on from this is people deliberately infecting themselves in order to get to stay at home with some free money. I dont know the specifics for france but I can imagine a number of situations in the UK where that would be financially advantageous to some, given that there is f*** all to do outside of the house in a wet feburary anyway.
^plus the benefit of aquiring (potential) immunity for the next few months when things open up but a large number wont have had their vaccine.
Indeed – FT arguably irresponsible breaking the story in the first place.
I'm not sure it's irresponsible
They do say it's a small study and that vaccines still work well against other strains
https://www.ft.com/content/e9bbd4fe-e6bf-4383-bfd3-be64140a3f36
If anything it re-enforces that just because people are being vaccinated does not mean that it's safe to go back to normal
What will be worrying is if other strains converge on similar evasive mutations
I can imagine a number of situations in the UK where that would be financially advantageous to some
As long as you discount the possibility of dying. I think you'd have to be a special kind of stupid to do this.
Conflicting info depending on the speaker this morning. Boris claimed all the current vaccines prevent death and serious illness for all the current strains while a South African epidemiologist thought the AZ vaccine to be insufficiently efficacious against the South African varient to be worth using. There are already 124 confirmed South African cases in the UK IIRC.
That info tells me the South African Varient will run the same course as the original/Kent variants despite AZ vaccination which will only reduce cases until the South African variant superceeds them.
I've been booked for my vaccination Wednesday - I'm surprised as I'm 48 and not in essential/care work, and have mild exercise induced asthma although brown/blue inhalers. Maybe its cause I have a flu jab?
Watching various channels around Europe I’ve come to the conclusion there is now a signifant risk associated with taking a Covid test. The obvious one being prosecution for being out whilst positive.
Wait, so you can have symptoms, go out for a test, get a positive result, and then be prosecuted for having been outside with Covid-19?
As long as you discount the possibility of dying. I think you’d have to be a special kind of stupid to do this.
Stupid, yes, special (as in very exceptionally so) no.
hundreds of free pounds for doing something that (age group dependent) has a vanishingly small possibility of death will be a irresistible allure to some demographics
I've looked into what help is available to the poorest and it in no way compensates a loss of access to free and subsidised services for some members of some communities. There is a cost to testing positive. For the self-employed it's a no brainer - never take a test, don't use the app.
Bear in mind I'm looking at at this from a pan-European perspective and I'm not going to go into ever anomoly in every country. The trend is the same everwhere, using the app and testing is a good way to increase hardship for many people.
A positive test for junior last week would have cost him a couple of thousand euros and a mountain of inconvenience, fortunately it was negative. A less upstanding citizen would have ignored the unofficial contact warning and thought **** it, I'm getting on with life unless I'm too ill not to. He has parents rich enough to cough up a couple of thousand euros to compensate being locked in, many don't.
There really is a disincentive to test for many people and the virus benefits from that.
Spent a few hours looking at the Oxford/AZ data in more detail. Taking the standard dose subjects as reference, below is the vaccine efficacy of the various subgroups. Two points; efficacy in the over 65's is unknown. Completely unknown. Approval is entirely based on antibody response and an expectation of some protection from morbidity at the very least. Second point, the efficacy in the South Africa trial is evidently lower, even with the much smaller trial. There is some overlap in uncertainty of response, but not a lot.
The vertical solid line is 50%, this is the minimum VE needed for approval and the peak needs to be to the right of this. The dashed line is 30% - 38/40 of the total area under the curve should be to the right of that dashed line. The UK trial just squeaks over the 30%! The Oxford study data in SA would be a failed trial. Busy updating with the other vaccines...(they all look better).
I will stand by what I have said previously. The OX/AZ vaccine should be viewed as morbidity and mortality preventing. Any effects on transmission are an upside. Think of it as that first infection that spares you the nasty prospects of a trip to A&E.
Good news (to my mind at least).
Death rate (worldometer, UK, 7 day rolling average) declining for the last 2 weeks at a faster rate than last spring despite currently having:
-less strict lockdown than in april/may
-weather far more suited to transmission of respiritory disease
-far less concern by the average population
take your uneducated guesses: better treatment, beginings of vaccine usefulness in the elderly population, running out of really vunerable people to kill, less deadly mutations...
Yea, numbers do seem to look good. Although it certainly looks like it flattening now. Look at France, seems to have flat lined at around 15k cases a day. The weather will be having an impact at the moment, and testing seems to be down slightly.
I'm trying not to think about the SA variant right now. No point.
Going to hold off on calling it on my suspicion that the vaccine program can't end this anytime soon and any idea that this will be over by the end of 2021 is as deluded as those who thought involvement in Vietnam wouldn't end up in anything other than protracted quagmire policy wise - but I reckon my odds are looking better.
We need to start considering/entertaining the possibility that we can't end this with lockdowns and a vaccine and start to think of ways that can mitigate the impact of covid without either policy being in place or having the public support to implement them.
Two points; efficacy in the over 65’s is unknown. Completely unknown. Approval is entirely based on antibody response and an expectation of some protection from morbidity at the very least.
Remember the uproar when politicians (nonUK ones) pointed this out?
Nothing is going to "end this" we are going to have to live with this virus, with vaccines and improved treatments that will become easier to do
Remember the uproar when politicians (nonUK ones) pointed this out?
Nope
That’s a shame. Or perhaps a good thing.
We covered it in this thread IIRC. I’m not reposting the euro hate media links. Here’s a fact check related to it:
https://www.bbc.com/news/55919245
Going to hold off on calling it on my suspicion that the vaccine program can’t end this anytime soon and any idea that this will be over by the end of 2021 is as deluded as those who thought involvement in Vietnam wouldn’t end up in anything other than protracted quagmire policy wise – but I reckon my odds are looking better.
Calm down dear - no one with any real knowledge - like TiRed of this parish and the like - has suggested we will get rid of it, in this or any other years. It's always been about limiting the damage till we can deal with it the way we deal with influenza.
The study may have been too small to give a precise answer, but it was large enough to show that the vaccine isn't highly effective.
tbf the Sun Torygraph etc must have been tumescent with glee getting to have a pop at Macron for slating our great made in britain vaccine
Maqcron said it was quasi ineffecitve, there was (is?) no data to support that statement.