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Not having a go. Just trying to reassure you @tpbiker.
I quoted the figures for mild and severe Asthma. Clearly you would come under severe but the relative risk isn’t that high, but point taken every case is different.
I have a relative in her 70’s with bad asthma and when I found out she had covid I really thought she wouldn’t make it, but in the end she had a very mild illness that she managed at home.
Reassuring to know thanks @mudmuncher
Must say alot of those numbers surprised me. If im Reading them right chronic heart desease (which is often given as a comorbility) is only a risk factor of around 1.2, less than that of an ex smoker? Likewise high blood pressure isn't a risk factor at all.
That doesn't sound right to me, am i reading it wrongly?
You are reading it correctly, though whether the data is robust I don’t know.
The high blood pressure one is interesting, you are actually at less chance of dying if you have high blood pressure vs having normal BP. That might be due to blood pressure meds. I remember there was concern at the start of the pandemic they could increase your risk but have subsequently been found to reduce your risk of death from CV.
Edit:- maybe I need to take up smoking again!
maybe I need to take up smoking again!
I was actually going to ask how high a BMI you needed to be able to jump the queue.
I was actually going to ask how high a BMI you needed to be able to jump the queue.
The point was being an active smoker actually protects you from covid. @tpbiker if you start smoking you can offset your asthma risk! Well from covid anyway, I imagine it wouldn’t do your asthma much good.
I remember reading way back when covid hit wuhan that there was proportionally a lot less smokers being admitted to hospital than non smokers. Whether it’s the layer of tar in the lungs stopping the virus getting into the cells, or the smoke itself I’m not sure.
Interesting! Does the same go for weed?
The point was being an active smoker actually protects you from covid. @tpbiker if you start smoking you can offset your asthma risk! Well from covid anyway, I imagine it wouldn’t do your asthma much good.
Interestingly I've always had what I would call mild asthma since a youth, and I was always a fairly light smoker. Then 3 years ago I gave up the tabs, and ever since then my asthma has got progressively worse. I thought I may have copd actually, but apparently not given my response to medication. Turns out that smoking is good for you after all.
And basically, from that study, rather than vaccinate younger folks with comorbilities, just hand out free fags.
or spliffs!
Roach..
Your user name makes sense now ..
Given the vaccine roll out, the country then going mad over Summer into autumn, the country then needing a second dose of jabs for the new strains...
Am I being pessimistic by thinking we still might need a lock down next winter?
Thoughts guys?
Well @tpbiker I must admit I wasn’t aware of that. A quick check of the green book chapter 14a lists clinical risk factors for people over 16 who should receive covid 19 vaccination and it states: “individuals with a severe lung condition INCLUDING those with asthma that requires continued or repeated use of systemic steroids or with previous exacerbations requiring hospital admission “
So that is brilliantly vague and open to interpretation. It doesn’t say ONLY people on long term oral steroids, admissions, etc. If it did it would exclude people who were on the shielding list for their asthma because they are prescribed triple therapy inhalers and/or montelukast (the shielding criteria were very much medication driven as it was felt medication was a good marker of severity)- but they’ve already been vacccinated as they are deemed to be a higher risk... so clearly clarity is needed. I’ve not paid much thought to this yet (as you can tell) as we’ve been busy dealing with groups 1-4, and knowing that guidance is changing on a daily basis it doesn’t pay to plan too far ahead. I do have a meeting next week which is usually attended by the head of medicines management for our borough and it will be her job to come up with the searches that produce the lists that we eventually work from to invite patients- it’s decided at a locality rather than individual practice level so that we all sing from the same hymn sheet- I will ask her... and come back to this thread.
I’ve always thought I should put “browsing STW” on my personal development plan for keeping up to date and now I definitely can!😀
I’d be really surprised if it wasn’t just everyone who is entitled to a flu jab though. Getting down to individual patient level and having to make individual decisions on who has severe enough disease isn’t something we have the resource to be doing as well as rolling out the vaccinations at the same time...
When my grandad got TB in the war, the doctors actually advised he took up smoking to kill off the bacteria. Well it worked, he was one of the few to survive on his ward, though it gave him a heart attack 50 yrs later
I was actually going to ask how high a BMI you needed to be able to jump the queue.
40. It’s in the green book. It’s another one that’s just the same as flu vaccination eligibility criteria though. I don’t know if that is back up by data for covid risk.
It is indeed becoming increasingly obvious that oldies are thinking this is 'all over'.
On today's ride we saw 6 rambling woman all chatting and grouped together. My auntie's elderly friends are all booking holidays. A lot of elderly people are talking about hugging their grandchildren.
I really feel for them but they mustn't.
But my stress levels today have gone through the roof as our young neighbours, both of whom have been vaccinated because her parents own a care home, are just having all their friends round with their children, for days now.
Why isn't enough being said that if you're vaccinated, you are still able to spread this virus and you are not even necessarily fully protected even after both vaccinations.
@doc
Thanks for the feedback. Yep it is causing lots of confusion. Asthma uk are on the case and said they should have further clarity next week, but I'm not overly hopeful. Would love to hear what you guys decide to do in the end though, so please keep us updated.
The cynic in me thinks it's much easier for the government to say they've hit their target of vaccinating all the priority groups, if your priority groups dont include all those you actually consider at risk!
Anyhow it is what it is, if I can't get a priority jab, mud muncher has provided the second best option to tide me over, 20 Mayfair blue..
Why isn’t enough being said that if you’re vaccinated, you are still able to spread this virus and you are not even necessarily fully protected even after both vaccinations.
It is being said. It's on the vaccination info. People are taking no notice
If they are breaking the rules, report them
When my grandad got TB in the war, the doctors actually advised he took up smoking to kill off the bacteria. Well it worked, he was one of the few to survive on his ward, though it gave him a heart attack 50 yrs later
My grandad was based out in India during the war as a doctor. Everyone who was out there including him got malaria, other than this one chap who use to get through a bottle of whiskey a day. He claimed the alcohol that he sweated out stopped the midges from biting him, and he was most probably correct
Unfortunately, whilst he escaped malaria, he succumbed to massive liver failure due to cirrhosis, before the war had even finished....
@poopscoop - I'll happily put a tenner on there being a lockdown next winter. Most likely just after Christmas as they won't want the political headache of denying everyone another chance for the grandkids to see the grandparents, especially as they'll all be 'safe' from the virus by then.
I will go in for a tenner on that too, payable to a charity of anyone choice.
I can't see this being done anytime soon, the only difference being we should have substantially lower deaths.
^^Yeah, I can't but help think it's a safe bet to be honest.
I think there is the general feeling that the vaccine will "get Covid done" (sorry) and it's very likely to be a couple of years or so till we get used to living with Covid. That and the huge PTSD that the NHS (individually and as an organisation) will be dealing with, together with the usual underfunding once it's forgotten about again.😟
As for a working test and trace by next winter...?
There is a realistic chance that if a new resistant strain takes hold then they may just have to start vaccinating the first 4 groups again with a tweeked formula..
They may in reality never get past the first 9 groups, as they have to restart the entire vaccination process again every 5-6 months.
That would be a bit of a turd..
Leaking to the media that the Oxford AstraZeneca vaccine might well considerably reduce transmission, before the data has been peer reviewed, was frankly another reckless decision.
The UK late winter and early spring 2021 "super spreaders" could well be the elderly, who will social party like it's 1999 before it's been over three weeks since their second vaccine jab.
The new Triumph Trident 660. Don’t have a delivery date just yet, but slowly getting excited.
Good choice, I really like those bikes. Although the news is very depressing at times, having a motorbike to disappear on for hours on end is lovely. Something to look forward to 🙂
who will social party like it’s 1999 before it’s been over three weeks since their second vaccine jab
Yep, I wonder if the press will call them out in the same way they go after young folk breaking the rules
Ultimately though, if loads of old folks are flouting rules and socialising, without an increase in deaths or long covid (can old folk even get long covid?), Then at least that'll tell us the vaccine works damn well. Id rather that than they start to socialise, realise they are still all dying, and run back into isolation.
Obviously, from a transmission perspective I'd prefer they didn't socialize at all
You really are an obnoxious whiner aren't you.
You really are an obnoxious whiner aren’t you.
Yeah and tbf that last comment was a gross generalisation...loads of old folks aren't like that at all. I'll remove it.
Tbh gents the current situation and this thread in general has not brought out my best side. I reckon a self enforced break from this place is a good idea as stw really does being out the worst in me.
Apologies for having a moan over the past 24 hrs. Stay safe all..
Maybe I’m cynical, but the ‘zero COVID’ boat sailed a long time ago. This government will be aiming for acceptable COVID and you can look at what an acceptable level of flu deaths to see where that is.
Trouble is, we can't look at anywhere in the world as having zero covid maybe excepting places like aus and nz, other than that it will be endemic as the vaccines are not likely to prevent infection in the way that smallpox and (almost) polio have been.
Minimal covid and as low deaths as possible is the best we can hope for i think.
But unless we lock down forever with only limited travel that's how it will be a no testing unit will ever be that effective i suspect
Maybe I’m cynical, but the ‘zero COVID’ boat sailed a long time ago. This government will be aiming for acceptable COVID and you can look at what an acceptable level of flu deaths to see where that is.
That was always the strategy and makes sense given the nature of the beast.
Its all well and good Aus and NZ aiming for zero Covid, they're going to have to open their borders at some point.
Its all well and good Aus and NZ aiming for zero Covid, they’re going to have to open their borders at some point.
Aye, but they can vaccinate the population before fully opening up borders again/
Agreed but that should only result in hopefully no healthcare impact, it won't keep the virus out.
Unless someone can come up with a 100% sterile prevention vaccine that is
Reports of 2 nurses stabbed at my local hospital tonight. 😢
Whereabouts are you no beer?
edit Crosshouse?
Maybe I’m cynical, but the ‘zero COVID’ boat sailed a long time ago. This government will be aiming for acceptable COVID and you can look at what an acceptable level of flu deaths to see where that is.
You're not being cynical, but you've also not paid much attention to what TiRed has been saying from the start, which was exactly that.
I have and it’s helped inform that view. It was more a reaction to the posts above talking about continuous lockdowns etc. <span style="font-size: 0.8rem;">Maybe we should we ‘lockdown’ every winter to prevent flu deaths? Seems to have worked pretty well this year...</span>
Whereabouts are you no beer?
edit Crosshouse?
Aye, wife works at Ayr, used to work there, has friends in ward this has happened. Lots of rumours, fingers crossed it's not as bad as it sounds.
Why isn’t enough being said that if you’re vaccinated, you are still able to spread this virus and you are not even necessarily fully protected even after both vaccinations.
I had my Pfizer jab today and nothing was said to me regarding the above. The info leaflet only states 'Protection against Covid-19 may not be maximally effective until at least 7 days after the second dose' and nothing about possible transmission. Most of the 4 page leaflet is about side effects.
GP services were excellent. checked in at appt time, 2 min wait then given jab, followed by 15 minute wait.
There won’t be a zero covid policy. We might get to a make-covid-like-flu policy. An extra flu-like illness on the books with modest additional mortality every few years is likely the best I’m expecting.
Annual or less-frequent vaccination to provide some protection for new emergent strains, with limited morbidity. That’s possibly a few years out. In 20 years time this will be a childhood infection.
And despite vaccinating the elderly, no returns till normal until a large majority are protected. Third quarter is a good timeframe.
I wonder how many people in care homes - who are now vaccinated - will be dead of natural causes by 3rd quarter?
I wonder how many people in care homes – who are now vaccinated – will be dead of natural causes by 3rd quarter?
Google suggests over 400,000 live in care homes, and 131,000 care home residents died in 2019.
I remember reading way back when covid hit wuhan that there was proportionally a lot less smokers being admitted to hospital than non smokers. Whether it’s the layer of tar in the lungs stopping the virus getting into the cells, or the smoke itself I’m not sure.
Also heard anecdotes that smokers are less susceptible to altitude sickness. Maybe they are used to living with low blood o2 !! 🙂
I've also heard stories about smokers living to ripe old ages. Usually told by people that don't understand statistics and do not want to accept that smokers _do_ die younger.
Pennine - pleased for you. But as you state it was my worry that not enough proper, clear information is being given out.
My 81 year mum is of the opinion it's all over by spring and life will be normal again (when she gets her second dose). No amount of carefully explaining (without her having a meltdown) is working.
Also heard anecdotes that smokers are less susceptible to altitude sickness. Maybe they are used to living with low blood o2 !!
I do wonder whether asthmatics are better adapted to trotting along with low blood o2 which is why, on the whole, they don't appear to be at significantly elevated risk until they've pretty much got COPD.
Everyone else just crashes when their blood o2 is under 90, while I was cruising along in the upper 80s a few weeks ago.
I wonder how many people in care homes – who are now vaccinated – will be dead of natural causes by 3rd quarter?
Normally, about a quarter in a year, mostly during winter.
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/23305759/
If covid deaths diminish in this population over the next six months, I'd expect a lower proportion of other deaths, partly due to better hygiene etc at homes, partly due to extra deaths among the more frail residents in earlier months.
Viewing this ongoing hotel quarantine business. It brought up the fact that 10,000 people are still currently entering the UK by air a day. 1000 would have to use the hotel system but that would be expected to drop rapidly as folk avoid travelling as the hotel would be too much hassle/expense.
!0,000 people a day still travelling into the country. I know this is a tiny tiny fraction of the usual daily number but even so - what the hell are the 10,000 excuses/reasons being used every day?
Coming in for a funeral - unlikely given the restricted numbers at funerals to amount to much.
Business? The world is zooming. I can't see too many where reasons why you'd have to be travelling into the UK for business at the moment. And given you would have to quarantine anyway that would further diminish the numbers.
Repatriating Brits - I don't know - is this who they all are?
I'm struggling to think of another justifiable group.
Repatriating Brits – I don’t know – is this who they all are?
I’m struggling to think of another justifiable group.
I wonder this too, like why and who would actually want to come to the UK right now on holiday with everything shut. But I guess there are like a million reasons why people could come back to the UK. Family emergency, spent the last year working from your native country, work if you can't zoom. I would rather everyone have to isolate rather than just the ones on a watch list.
0,000 people a day still travelling into the country. I know this is a tiny tiny fraction of the usual daily number but even so – what the hell are the 10,000 excuses/reasons being used every day?
Are the reasons even checked?
I know quite a few people who have decided wfh can be done from the beach, Dubai, Southern Europe etc
One of my far too well off school friends (got into bitcoin at the start) has spent the last 6 months at a luxury villa in Ibiza, I'm not jealous at all
I'm not sure many are in a rush to come back (brexit rules are forcing the issue tho!)
I wonder how many people in care homes – who are now vaccinated – will be dead of natural causes by 3rd quarter?
I wonder if I'm misinterpreting the point you are making.
Also heard anecdotes that smokers are less susceptible to altitude sickness. Maybe they are used to living with low blood o2 !!
A mate of mine used to quip that being a smoker was ideal training for alpinism as he was always out of breath anyway.
I'm genuinely angry that we are considering border restrictions and quarantine hotels a whole 12 months too late.
How many of the 10000 are lorry drivers?
Are they staying in the UK though or just using the airports as transfer?
Enhanced travel restrictions come in a week on Monday and the road map for exiting restrictions comes out seven days later. Might be miss remembering but I thought the government pulled this placation trick in lockdown 1. Smacks of keeping disruptive elements happy.
There have been a lot earnest excuses around lorry drivers coming into the country being a valid reason for not applying restrictions. In terms of freight coming into the country - wasn't much being made of 80% of freight being unaccompanied. Then there is a general drop in freight due to the other thing.
If it really is essential that we don't close the borders. I don't see why we aren't doing test and sequence on all people at the airport. At least we would then know the test hasn't been falsified.
How many of the 10000 are lorry drivers?
Arriving by air? Not many.
Many of those 10k/day will be people who have to go on work travel returning - there are some things that are specialist or really do need to be done in person. It is really not that many given how big the UK is and how many specialist services we provide (think aircraft engine maintenance, oil rigs etc).
What I can't understand is how the beeb and others still keep refering to hotel quarantine as a 'tightening' of restrictions. It is NOT - travel from the red list countries is currently banned completely, so this is actually a relaxation. It would only be a tightening if it applied to everyone - which would make a lot of sense imho.
Just arranged 1st jab for 10th Feb. Not front line, 67, no underlying health issues. This is a bit quicker than I had anticipated.
Disappointing to hear the Scottish Government are destroying vaccine when there remains such a vast swathe of the population to be inoculated. Their take on it is that the 2% they are destroying is better than the projected 5%. Near the end of the rollout perhaps understandable, this early on demonstrates weak logistics planning.
Enhanced travel restrictions come in a week on Monday and the road map for exiting restrictions comes out seven days later.
Don't worry I'm sure the virus will wait until we're ready for it
What wastage are other countries reporting? It'll never be zero.
Down here in W Yorks we've had a lot of disruption due to snow. They're must be a lot of Pfizer jabs past their use by date now.
Unsure what wastage other countries are reporting, but wastage is shameful this early on. Granted extremes of weather will present problems, not insurmountable ones under current drive and focus of a rollout program. Every dose of vaccine destroyed could prevent a needless death.
wastage is [s] shameful [/s] unavoidable this early on
FTFY.
Seriously, you're asking too much of governments and agencies to set up massive vaccination programmes from scratch and not to have any wasteage. Even in the best of worlds there will always be some.
Unsure what wastage other countries are reporting, but wastage is shameful this early on.
I don’t understand how you’ve reached that conclusion. The delivery into care homes is complex and difficult. Some wastage is to be expected. I personally don’t know when it becomes shameful, can you explain how you reached that position beyond, failure to hit 100% = shameful?
It might well be shameful, but I don’t personally have the information to draw that conclusion.
Hang on, not care homes. You talking about this? https://www.edinburghlive.co.uk/news/edinburgh-news/covid-scotland-vaccine-wastage-teething-19782311
Still stands tbh, how are you defining what is and isn’t shameful?
Aye, a silly comment.
I'd describe it as shameful as that is what I'd feel if I was the person charged with its destruction. Knowing that if logistics had been better then all the vaccines should be used. This early on when supply can't keep up with demand then this situation should not be allowed to occur. Teething problems is another term for poor planning and execution with a failure to provide a back up plan to cover the eventuallaties of over provision at the delivery stations. Not sure how it is a silly comment. Maybe not a term you agree with, but I see the situation as unacceptable this early on in the rollout.
Theres no detail in that position. And reads as if you're speaking from emotion rather than knowledge.
Which is understandable and most of us are in a similar place.
My mum and dad are volunteering with the vaccine roll out and they said that some of the wastage is from people just not turning up (for whatever reason) , so completely out of their control. They try to find alternatives last minute nearly every day and sometimes that is not possible
I understand that but if they've got some left over at the end of the session and it must be used that day, can't they just grab passers-by say over 50?
My mum and dad are volunteering with the vaccine roll out and they said that some of the wastage is from people just not turning up (for whatever reason) , so completely out of their control. They try to find alternatives last minute nearly every day and sometimes that is not possible
Why can’t they implement a system whereby people who would like a jab ASAP but haven’t been called up yet can turn up at the end of the day on spec and get a jab if there are any that are about to get thrown away.
That is what they have been doing in a round about way. they both received the jab themselves last week due to some left over, but the centre is in a place where people wont be just walking by unfortunately.
Knowing that if logistics had been better then all the vaccines should be used. This early on when supply can’t keep up with demand then this situation should not be allowed to occur. Teething problems is another term for poor planning and execution with a failure to provide a back up plan to cover the eventuallaties of over provision at the delivery stations. Not sure how it is a silly comment. Maybe not a term you agree with, but I see the situation as unacceptable this early on in the rollout.
Doesn't make it right but I know a lot of Pfizer vaccines have been binned at a big hospital in London because they received extra and couldn't get them used in time
I imagine the same across the country (there's even a thread about it https://singletrackworld.com/forum/topic/teh-vaccination-programme-wanna-know-how-daft-it-can-be/page/2/)
I read that prevalence of UK variant is about 6% in Germany, wonder if it will accelerate there as it has here?
I've just spoken to a friend in the street who is a local GP. That is what he said was happening - fighting to backfill missed appointments at no notice.
Unsure what wastage other countries are reporting, but wastage is shameful this early on. Granted extremes of weather will present problems, not insurmountable ones under current drive and focus of a rollout program. Every dose of vaccine destroyed could prevent a needless death.
Even in a perfect logistics scenario you will still get wastage or shrinkage as they generally call it. There will always be breakages of product, transportation equipment, storage, errors in handling etc. You must also remember that you will never get 100% of a liquid out of it's container. As an example an aluminium beer keg is 50 litres or 88 pints. you will never get 88 pints out of it as you have to throw away the first pint pulled out of it due to it filling the lines, the last 1 or 2 are lost to sediment being sucked up as the barrel 'dies' plus there is always a bit left over at the end in the barrel as some of the product stays stuck to the inside surface of the keg plus that last bit that can't get up the pipe. Also don't forget that every pint you pour has to be a minimum of 1 pint, shorting is illegal so every pint should be a few ml over most likely costing you half a pint for each keg. Add in staff spillages, line cleaning etc too, it all adds up. So for a 88 pint starting point you may only get 80-84 pints out that you sell.
So apply that same set of rules to the vaccine, say for a litre where every dose is 5ml. That's technically 200 doses per litre. Every dose must be that 5ml so you always go a tiny bit over to be safe, say 5.05ml average, that's down to 198 doses per litre. Now allow for the small film of the vaccine that clings to the containers and you could lose another 1 or 2 doses. Now add in the odd failure to inject by staff (leaky syringe, dropping on the floor etc), say 1 in 100, and you're down to 196 doses. Then add wastage due to no-shows or storage time limits meaning that they can't use it all fast enough. It's easy to see how you could be down to an average of 180 doses or less per litre, a wastage/shrinkage ratio of 90% which is not hard to imagine at all if you have any experience of logistics whether that's in a shop or as a delivery driver. Don't forget this is not for every litre they receive at the vaccination centre, it's percentage of product used that leaves the factory. Apply that 90% to a million doses and you have a loss of 10,000 doses. The figures I've used may not be accurate but it does show that how small losses at each stage can have a big effect on total numbers.
I can guarantee that near-every person at every stage of the vaccination delivery process is trying their absolute hardest to get the maximum amount of people injected every day but you will never get 100% usage, especially in a system that has been hastily built using temporary facilities. This is the one part of the coronavirus response the UK has got right first time, don't belittle it and potentially destroy the hard work by all the medics, volunteers etc.
i'd be interested to know what restrictions there are, if any, on who can be called up at short notice to get a jab if there's vaccine going spare. if i got a call i could be at our local centre in about 15 mins i reckon.
it's a shame that vaccine is being wasted but it's the nature of trying to undertake something like this at such scale. put in perspective we've basically vaccinated 10m people, among whom will be the most immobile, in about a month a year on from this thing emerging as a threat. it's an incredible achievement.
The weird thing here is that each vial of vaccine has at least one more dose in it than it supposedly has. Pfizer vials counted as 5 actually have 6, Astra Zeneca 8s have 9 and 10s have 11. In fact you can get 12 out of them although the guidance is only to give 11. So the analogy to beer barrels doesn’t hold up. We received 990 doses in the practice last week but booked in 1089 as we know we can get 10% extra. So then if one or two people don’t turn up or aren’t suitable and we can’t find someone to fill that slot is that wastage? A vial with a dose of vaccine goes in the bin, but we’ve already given more than we were sent...we really hope that the corresponding batch of 990/1089 that we should get in 12 weeks to give these patients their second dose also contains 10% extra. If the manufacturers tweak their bottle filling machines we will be in trouble!
There will always be the odd unavoidable power supply issue that affects a cold chain somewhere, and I don’t know what’s happening in the big centres, but it seems like the local clinics are managing really well to avoid wasted doses.
Peter Sagan tests positive - https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cycling/55962302
Also, each wasted vaccination isn't an extra death, it is perhaps 1/10,000th of a death, or is it 1/50,000. Quite a small number anyway.
My mum has just had her covid appointment through the door, she's getting the injection next week which is surprising as she's only 65, walks 15 miles a day and has no health issues at all. This is in Galloway btw.
Very surprised at the comments about shameful wastage. Supply chain difficulties aside, its quite a snowy winter out there in places, theres lots of things can cause wastagebbeyond the organisers control.
Someone had contacted the local BBC news the other day wanting to know why the queue at a vaccination site had been made up entirely of police officers when he'd come out after his. The BBC established that at 1am in the morning they'd not been able to find anyone else who could get there for that day's Pfizer jabs so had contacted the emergency services.
They really are trying to get this thing right.