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Couple of blokes at work have had texts off their Teacher wives – schools preparing to shut down from next Friday.
My wife works as the media outlet for the school she works at so has sat in on meetings discussing their action plan. At that school they are making plans to shut down only when advised to by Government - they expected it to be announced yesterday in Boris' speech so they are standing down for the time being and awaiting further revised advice as and when it comes out.
And a colleague's hubby is a lecturer at a local Uni (Leeds) and their official line is the same.
I think there's an element that they don't want to go too soon with banning movement / gatherings / normal way of life.
People will go stir-crazy after a week or two especially if they can't see anything going wrong from their window. Some will start disobeying any curfew, at the exact time that the explosion in transmission is predicted.
So whilst I don't necessarily agree with Boris on lots of things, I suspect a lot of behind-the-scenes people have thought long and hard and come up with this strategy.
Politically, Boris has a lot to lose from a big outbreak. Obviously it will have happened 'on his watch', but more cynically a sizeable chunk of conservative voters will die, and Conservative underfunding of the NHS could be very painfully exposed.
They know it will spread and they can’t control it so they are assuming everyone will get it, quite a lot will die,
If this is the case why have we not seen eleventy trillion dead chinese yet?
People will go stir-crazy after a week or two especially if they can’t see anything going wrong from their window. Some will start disobeying any curfew, at the exact time that the explosion in transmission is predicted.
The interesting thing is you come out of isolation without a test all you know is you had something that put you in isolation, no idea if you have had virus unless it's severe. If you haven't had it you could get it. That would surely encourage people to hold the line?
If this is the case why have we not seen eleventy trillion dead chinese yet?
Isn't China quite locked down?
Mrs Pondo's school are making plans, heard nothing beyond that - odd thing is, a teacher was sent home this week, you'd think that might accelerate things...
-
IF
its is true that the government wants us to acquire herd immunity, then that really is mental
fair enough to do it through vaccination, but through a virus with such a high mortality rate !?!?!?
95% req'd for herd immunity, 4% fatality rate would mean killing nearly 1/3 million people or is maths wrong?
no way that can be the policy
The interesting thing is you come out of isolation without a test all you know is you had something that put you in isolation, no idea if you have had virus unless it’s severe. If you haven’t had it you could get it. That would surely encourage people to hold the line?
I was talking about curfews and mandatory isolation for everyone like they've done in Wuhan / Italy, but yeah it's weird isn't it? As a doctor I could be self-isolating and not knowing whether I've developed immunity or not, before going back in to treat more people with Covid.
Can anyone expand on the current testing strategy? 2 days ago we were ramping up to 10000 tests a day, now we aren’t testing anymore unless you are in hospital?
Can anyone expand on the current testing strategy? 2 days ago we were ramping up to 10000 tests a day, now we aren’t testing anymore unless you are in hospital?
I think testing in the containment phase was so that they could trace patients & isolate them & those theyve been in contact with
problem is that NHS111 & GPs quickly became overwhelmed, so weve moved onto the delay phase , where we only test to confirm & to help with treating the illest
Can anyone expand on the current testing strategy? 2 days ago we were ramping up to 10000 tests a day, now we aren’t testing anymore unless you are in hospital?
There's no point testing. There will be >10,000 suspected cases a day so they can't keep up. There will be less real cases but they have been testing people in contact.
Knowing someone has the virus is now only of use if they are in hospital and need treatement. Otherwise, isolate.
If this is the case why have we not seen eleventy trillion dead chinese yet?
So we trust numbers coming out of the Chinese government more than the behaviour of our own? Dark times indeed.
In seriousness though,
The death toll there isn't exactly miniscule.
They built a hospital in a week.
The whole country shut down.
We don't know it's worked yet and won't until everything is back to normal and has been for a few months.
Return to actual normal is a long long way away, even then, normal isn't our idea of normal.
would mean killing 1/3 million people
As a genuine question, has anyone seen any stats on of the many hundreds of thousands expected to die, how many of them have a life expectancy of over a year any how? I'm not trying to be callous but are we looking at closing on a million extra dead over 12 months or very few extra over 12 months but a lot extra in 3 months?
We are patently NOT taking the same measures as other countries.
It could be our 'rogue outlier genius' moment, or.......
Who's to tell right now, but 'our' approach looks riskier to me.
If this is the case why have we not seen eleventy trillion dead chinese yet?
The Chinese government has a crapload of its own money (that it doesn't have to borrow) that it can hand out to anyone who needs it, and it controls everything. Totally opposite to ours.
FWIW I suspect the government's policy is actually the one that results in the least deaths and the least disruption. In China, the cases more or less stopped rising 2 weeks after their lockdown. That means in the UK the equation is basically:
- How many people can the NHS treat at maximum capacity?
- When will that capacity be reached based on the best models available?
- Lockdown hard 2 weeks before that date.
I'm not an expert but my guess looking at other countries is that the lockdown date is still over a week away.
This actually broadly matches some of the other countries that have already locked down but are a week or so ahead of the UK in cases. We currently look like an outlier because the best time for our reaction is later than in other countries.
Then, after 3-4 weeks, ease restrictions nationally but impose lockdowns locally around cases for a few months until the situation starts to normalise.
In seriousness though,
The death toll there isn’t exactly miniscule.
They built a hospital in a week.
The whole country shut down.
No the death toll is big, but if it cannot be contained and will spread throughout the entire country, the piles of bodies would be visible from space right now.
The Chinese government... Controls everything. Totally opposite to ours
Never a truer word
no way that can be the policy
It's one thing to admit that the whole population is likely to get it, but quite another to encourage that, which from news reports, press conferences and comments from the advisors themselves, seems to be what they're doing. If every other country was doing that it might be a little more assuring, but most other countries are doing exactly the opposite. Hardly a surprise then that conspiracies creep in. Christ, on twitter the words genocide and cull are being used, which while hysterical is incredible in itself that a modern day PM of the UK could even be associated with either of those words.
My employer very sensibly now has a blanket policy that anyone in a household with someone at increased risk should work from home where practicable. Increased risk is defined as over 60, under 2, compromised immune system (e.g. diabetes), pregnant.
I've had conversations with all my staff today and those affected will be working from home. I'm lucky that we already have remote access and an office based job.
Christ, on twitter the words genocide and cull are being used, which while hysterical is incredible in itself that a modern day PM of the UK could even be associated with either of those words.
That would be incredible if the PM's spiritual leader were not a self-proclaimed eugenicist.
Welcome to the laboratory. Your cheese is over there.
but most other countries are doing exactly the opposite.
We're just not at the stage yet, we're sitting at 9 cases per million at the minute.
So we are quite away down, so what they are saying does make sense, I'm pretty wure people will get their wish and we will lock down at some point, does seem a bit early yet.
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I also think the fact that the football leagues have just shut down voluntarily is interesting.
Yesterday there was a clear emphasis that they are thinking of the psychological and behavioural aspect of this outbreak. didn't really take a genius to guess that that football clubs would be the first to panic. So not really any point in issuing and edict that they should when they were always going to do it anyhow.
I think it makes sense that in the earlier stages as much is done as voluntarily as possible, will probably make people more complient with instructions later on when things get a lot more serious.
The idea of coronavirus fatigue is a very real one I think. The very people that are shouting lock everything down now, will probably be the first ones to start complaining about it.
IMO yes. Where on earth are you getting 4% from? It isn't even that high in China, and even that's dividing KNOWN cases by deaths.95% req’d for herd immunity, 4% fatality rate would mean killing nearly 1/3 million people or is maths wrong?
but if it cannot be contained
The word you're missing is indefinitely.
China is HAVING to ease restrictions*, it can't cope with the economic impact of the restrictions, if its enough to genuinely hurt the Chinese economy its enough to sink ours deeper than deep.
If cases stay at actual low level for ever more, then they'll have proved it can be done but no one seems to think that's achievable long term. One missed or imported case and up it all goes again, though in China I doubt you'll hear about it.
FWIW there's been quite a bit of mention about the voluntary shutdown here and why it's not coming from the government. If you're looking at China, Take a look at images and videos from not-Hubei a few days after lockdown in Hubei. It wasn't enforced China wide but it was visible China wide.
*to do that, the numbers need to look good or people simply won't go back to work. those numbers come from Chinese agencies ultimately. Draw what conclusions you will.
Just listened to the second Sam Harris podcast on the topic.
The expert he had on suggested a death rate of 0.6% maximum based on the best available data (South Korea).
Where did the 95% come from? From what I’ve read, 60-70% is all that’s needed with a virus of this nature. So your figures seem very high. Not that the policy as declared so far doesn’t look cavalier in the extreme. It’ll change soon…
For comparison, standard flu is 0.1%.
Most countries have a similar plan to ours dazh. We are following many of our neighbouring countries with a very similar progressive shutdown. Germany, France, Italy, Norway, Denmark, Spain are all ahead of our plan and as things progress here we will follow suit. Stopping it is not an option if it cannot be contained which is more or less impossible now
That guardian article is poor dannyh. Norway and Denmark were both further along the scale despite 'low' numbers, per capita they were ahead of us.
Delay phases will be different for many countries from now on.
We’re just not at the stage yet, we’re sitting at 9 cases per million at the minute.
Based on the actual. The question is what is our monitoring and reporting regime compared to others.
Are there any assumed infection rates based on the models for other countries? Ie the 5,000-10,000 assumed undiagnosed. If we knew how many people were in self isolation and where these were clustered we might have more of an idea of where we are. Is there a evidence the Italian leap isn't round the corner? If we aren't testing just self isolating but the Italians were testing everything our leap would pass un acknowledged, except by the rumour mill?
Carry on… carry on…
https://twitter.com/samcoatessky/status/1238430799093006336?s=21
Who made the comment about this all so far looking a bit “stiff upper lip” rather than taking sensible measured steps at avoiding speedy transmission? Tend to agree.
There's no doubt many more cases than reported in every country, it's certain the italian numbers are also low, which I think will be true for everyone one, how much will be variable, but the reported numbers will give you an indication of where we are in the timeline.
Norway and Denmark were both further along the scale despite ‘low’ numbers, per capita they were ahead of us
Were they? or were they ahead in testing?
Our favourite card company "Rosie Made A Thing "sent us this.
0.6% mortality on a 60% infection rate still equates to nearly a quarter of a million deaths in the uk.
Insert weird gameshow 'fail' sound here and then think 'NHS'.
IMO yes. Where on earth are you getting 4% from? It isn’t even that high in China, and even that’s dividing KNOWN cases by deaths.
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30195-X/fulltext
& this explains why theyve done it that way
shutdown schools
Which in itself isn't a great idea according to the radio this morning.
Either the kid's parents (who may be health workers) take time off or granny looks after them and granny might be over 60. Despite all that kids will still play together and spread it about. ...and for it to work you'd need them off for 16 weeks, not two.
The 60-70pc figures are *worst* case figures. (Although long term it will be to ~100pc in the same way that ~100pc of us have had flu.) Which is why lockdown doesn't work - as soon as the lockdown ends you all get it. What the UK is doing is flattening and lengthening the numbers curve to give the hospitals a fighting chance. That strikes me as a sensible policy.
Based on the actual. The question is what is our monitoring and reporting regime compared to others.
Are there any assumed infection rates based on the models for other countries? Ie the 5,000-10,000 assumed undiagnosed
You've got to assume every serious case is diagnosed as it requires hospital treatment. "You" will have data from places like South Korea and China where testing has been more wide spread to show the number of mild (eg not requiring hospitalisation) cases per serious case. Extrapolating from that is easy enough and accurate enough for planning purposes, even if it's not very good for science or the Internet.
British Airways are warning of job losses.
Is it time for universal basic income to be introduced as an emergency measure?
I really don't think universal / tax credits can cover off what's required. There isnt enough slack in the system. It's too complex and it would be trying to do more with less resources. Claims up and an associated reduction in staff numbers due to virus.
A simpler system to get money out, accepting it will not be more open to abuse but more supportive to people.
95% req’d for herd immunity, 4% fatality rate would mean killing nearly 1/3 million people or is maths wrong?
That's a 4% fatality rate of those infected, which wouldn't be the entire population of the UK. China has had 80,000 cases in a population of 1.4 billion.
Extrapolating from that is easy enough and accurate enough for planning purposes, even if it’s not very good for science or the Internet.
Sounds reasonable
oldagedpredator
Subscriber
British Airways are warning of job losses.Is it time for universal basic income to be introduced as an emergency measure?
I really don’t think universal / tax credits can cover off what’s required. There isnt enough slack in the system. It’s too complex and it would be trying to do more with less resources. Claims up and an associated reduction in staff numbers due to virus.
A simpler system to get money out, accepting it will not be more open to abuse but more supportive to people.
Dunno, think there will need to be a rethink somewhere down the line though. At the minute I'm alright, I've got this month and next months wages sorted, and a bit of contingency beyond that, but if there's a serious economic effect I can see things drying up in quick order. Being self employed I'll be gubbed.
Removing the minimum floor income on UC will help a bit if I need to claim, but it's not really enough to survive on if this last for a protracted period.
Is it time for universal basic income to be introduced as an emergency measure?
Depending on how long this goes on I think we're probably heading toward some form of universal stimulus or bailout in the form of cash handouts. All they have to do is print money and distribute it. I think when we come out of this the economy and the politics around it will look very different.
Either the kid’s parents (who may be health workers) take time off or granny looks after them and granny might be over 60. Despite all that kids will still play together and spread it about. …and for it to work you’d need them off for 16 weeks, not tw
If most employers remain open, then kids will probably be pooled in among parents. That's what I would have done a few years ago, before my eldest reached 16. Monday the kids go to Sarah and Marks' house, Tuesday all the kids go to Jo's, Wednesday all the kids go to Adrian and Eves', Thursday they go to my house. No need for all parents to take time off work, or to put elderly grandparents at risk, just a group of parents to arrange child minding among themselves and one parent at a time to look after them.
Of course, this then allows the virus to spread among the population in exactly the same way as if they were in school.
My wife is a school governor - it's interesting that most of the panicky stuff she is telling me originates in the school.
All they have to do is print money and distribute it.
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All they have to do is print money and distribute it.
That's a spectacularly bad idea.
It didn't work if Ln Germany in the 30s, or Zimbabwe more recently, or anywhere else its ever been tried. It's pretty much how to guarantee rampant inflation.
In theory you need to take money out not put it in, so what little people have has greater value. Like most theories though it would be utterly rubbish and not work in practice.
That’s a spectacularly bad idea.
...but a spectacularly good troll - hooked you and I. 🙁
…but a spectacularly good troll – hooked you and I.
It is the second time he's said it though...
That’s a spectacularly bad idea.
If we try to run the economy with business as usual, yes. But this is going to require some novel and radical solutions. The German govt has already offered a blank cheque to businesses to keep them running, and presumably paying staff. The UK has said cost is not a consideration. The Fed found 1.5trillion down the back of the settee to support markets. Where do you think this money comes from?
Something will have to be done economically - we are going to end up with huge numbers of businesses going under.
I wonder if boris has the balls to go to the EU and ask for an extension to the transition period, otherwise with the double whammy we'll be irritrivably ****ed
In other news Wales v scotland finally cancelled,. which is probably the right decision - though i was looking forward to watching that
Where do you think this money comes from?
Borrowing mostly.
Where do you think this money comes from?
Bonds (borrowing), borrowing and reserves. Its emphatically not new money.
Of course, this then allows the virus to spread among the population in exactly the same way as if they were in school.
Not the same way at all. Your example is kids from five households being in regular close contact with each other and their parents and siblings. Now work out how many pupils, staff and members of the public they would be mingling with at and on the way to their schools.
otherwise with the double whammy we’ll be irritrivably ****
The bigger the upset, the bigger the opportunity. Delaying Brexit is only seems as a useful thing by those with a damage limitation view of it. The key decision makers either want the damage for the opportunities that arise from it, or are useful idiots still denying it’ll be damaging (at least in the short term)… why would they delay?
It is the second time he’s said it though…
Good point. A very average troll. 🙂
Borrowing mostly.
And what's the traditional way of reducing a national debt (aside from destroying public services)? Governments have been inflating their way out of debt crises for as long as banks have insisted. The novel thing in this instance is that it's going to be a global problem, so should help in finding a global solution.
Giro D'Italia postponed, which basically means cancelled.
I wonder if boris has the balls to go to the EU and ask for an extension to the transition period, otherwise with the double whammy we’ll be irritrivably ****
That's possibly one silver lining, without being in the [oh so quick to react] EU we'll actually be free(er) to do as we see fit in terms of state aid and things, whether we will and whether that's a good thing remains to be seen mind.
EU states are doing what they want.
That’s a 4% fatality rate of those infected, which wouldn’t be the entire population of the UK. China has had 80,000 cases in a population of 1.4 billion.
Im saying that if the government want to get herd immunity that a huge chunck of the population would need to be infected, quick check and COVID19 has R0 of 2-3, so ~70% of population need to be infected to get herd immunity
...and all this from 6 initial cases in Wuhan and a local government trying to pretend there was nothing new going on. The Graun had a story yesterday on modelling suggesting quarantine of Wuhan even 2 weeks earlier would have reduced the number of cases by 95%. It didn't mention whether that 95% would have grown incrementally to the current level, mind
Governments have been inflating their way out of debt crises for as long as banks have insisted
You know that's pretty much exactly how Germany paid for the first world war. It didn't do a lot a favours for the German population. The one thing that does consistently solve global recession though is a jolly good war.
I imagine the fallout [not sure if I intend that pun or not] will be much better than 1% death toll.
https://twitter.com/damocrat/status/1238473459597967360?s=21
https://twitter.com/tfl/status/1238466942509424640?s=21
More importantly kelvin, it seems to have postponed FGF
EU we’ll actually be free(er) to do as we see fit in terms of state aid and things, wh
https://www.ft.com/content/d1086540-6232-11ea-b3f3-fe4680ea68b5
EU have said theyll waive state aid rules & aid packages etc
Ursula said yesterday theres £30bn available in the short term
Ta Kimbers, will see if I can find a non paywalled report
Is it time for universal basic income to be introduced as an emergency measure?
Conservatives are the party of “business” (or so they claim) and why you propose is something Labour wanted to bring in.... but you didn’t vote for them so you’re not going to get it are you.
BA announcing job losses is the tip of the iceberg IMO... and plenty of people will be forced into Zero Hour Contracts to stay alive and out of debt.
But that’s what was voted for, so that’s what you’ve got.
But that’s what was voted for, so that’s what you’ve got
Maybe a bit unfair to blame a global pandemic on people who don't agree with you.
it seems to have postponed FGF
Bananas.
dangeourbrain
Subscriber
Ta Kimbers, will see if I can find a non paywalled report
sign up you get some free articles
More detail from Patrick Vallance explaining the UK Govt approach. Confirms a couple things I was wondering last night about reason for Herd Immunity. Obvs I get the whole thing about flattening the curve etc to move it to the Summer. There is also another couple things to consider
This is quite likely, I think, to become an annual virus, an annual seasonal infection.
If you suppress something very, very hard, when you release those measures it bounces back and it bounces back at the wrong time,” he said. The government is concerned that if not enough people catch the virus now, it will re-emerge in the winter, when the NHS is already overstretched.
Interesting that bolsonara has the virus and that he was in a face to face meeting with trump on 7th march.
I believe that Trump has it! It will be denied, the positive test will be buried and any medical staff present will be discredited and suppressed. He ll disappear to mar a Lago for a few weeks to recover and deny he has it as it's a sign of weakness. Or he ll die. He is in the high risk demograph and possibly has underlying health problems due to his big Mac diet. You heard it first here folks
Removing the minimum floor income on UC will help a bit if I need to claim, but it’s not really enough to survive on if this last for a protracted period.
Does UC work like Tax Credits - initial assessment made on previous year's income? If your income over the year goes up above the one your payouts are calculated on you are asked to pay it back. It would seem more like a lot of people are going to effectively end up with a loan that they will need to pay back.
Anyone with savings is going to have to chew through those before they qualify for any benefit? Yes savings are for situations like this as well as fun stuff. Potentially this could chew through what people had set aside for retirement.
Could have a financial aftershock the actual event goes through?
Anyone with savings is going to have to chew through those before they qualify for any benefit? Yes savings are for situations like this as well as fun stuff. Potentially this could chew through what people had set aside for retirement.
yes, you dont qualify for UC if you have savings of £16k? or more
I believe that Trump has it! It will be denied, the positive test will be buried and any medical staff present will be discredited and suppressed. He ll disappear to mar a Lago for a few weeks to recover and deny he has it as it’s a sign of weakness. Or he ll die. He is in the high risk demograph and possibly has underlying health problems due to his big Mac diet. You heard it first here folks
He will beat it like nobody else could, he's an expert in beating virus's and the virus is weak, like the democrats.
The twonk in chief has said there should be no unnecessary travel.......which will be lifted at about 3pm this afternoon when he wants to play golf at Mar-A-Largo. Probably the real reason he didn't include the UK in the travel ban......his golf courses shouldn't have to suffer
yes, you dont qualify for UC if you have savings of £16k? or more
what counts as savings in this regard? Does having both savings and debts offset or not?
If you suppress something very, very hard, when you release those measures it bounces back and it bounces back at the wrong time,” he said.
Be interesting to see the basis for that statement. Is it consistent with previous experience of, say, SARS ?
It didn’t work if Ln Germany in the 30s, or Zimbabwe more recently, or anywhere else its ever been tried. It’s pretty much how to guarantee rampant inflation.
In theory you need to take money out not put it in, so what little people have has greater value. Like most theories though it would be utterly rubbish and not work in practice.
This is spectacularly wrong. Governments are continually printing money - I mean, where do you think it comes from? To understand money properly, you need to get your head around how central banking works (or does not perhaps), and what Fractional Reserve Banking is. Like do you really think the government has a piggy bank and puts it's tax in from your petrol money and then saves it up for something like HS2?
I wonder if boris has the balls to go to the EU and ask for an extension to the transition period, otherwise with the double whammy we’ll be irretrievably ****
If there are any positives to take from this (and I'm struggling to think of any) then offering Joris a way out of the corner he painted himself into with regard to not extending the transition period is it.
He surely has too now. He's got the majority, so he's no longer hostage to the ERG, and it'd just be absolute madness not too, given the circumstances
Genuine question for the bozza bashers, can you actually imagine any of the alternatives doing a better (different) job?
Would you do his job today for 160k a year and a flat above your office in Central London?
Genuine question, does anyone really believe Boris Johnson is only milking 160k out of his current gig?
Johnson has had a long career, but I don't think it's actually marked by notable success in any field other than journalism (and even there he got in trouble for writing fiction).
He ducks and dives, doesn't have the discipline to do his jobs properly and leaves failures in his wake. He's a dreadful person to be in charge of the current crisis. But a lot of people seem to like "Boris", so I guess that's OK.
Anyway Spain's just declared a State of Emergency, I imagine from sometime tomorrow I won't be allowed to leave my home. Thank god for the turbo, but even so 🙁
"The government is concerned that if not enough people catch the virus now, it will re-emerge in the winter, when the NHS is already overstretched."
Current average temp in Lombardy is 16 degrees - its actually over 20 in Milan right now. You might want to ask the locals how that's going with the seasonal thing.
Its total hogwash - they are saying anything to reduce panic. The government has an agenda and your/my health isn't really on it. You can see the fear in Chris Witty's face. He knows whats coming.