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Almost 1/2m patients vaccinated yesterday - really great to see the vaccination programme moving so quickly.
Figures are reporting a slight delay in Scotland unfortunately.
The number of 80-year-olds vaccinated in Scotland by Friday stood at 13% – in Wales it was 24%, in Northern Ireland it was 45% and in England it was 56% – some four times the Scottish figure.
Nicola Sturgeon originally ignored the offer of help from the British armed forces but is only now allowing them to step in, so hopefully things will get moving now.
The reason for the numbers in Scotland is the high priority given to care homes. IIRC as of last week in Scotland 90+% of care home residents and staff had been inoculated, in England 60%
Care homes take longer per person to inoculate. Also again IIRC more healthcare staff have been inoculated
Having now completed the care homes we are moving onto the 80+ year olds at pace.
It was a reasonable decision to start in the care homes first as patients were moved from Scottish hospitals into care homes without tests or with their positive tests ignored when it had been stopped elsewhere – resulting in the proportion of deaths with Covid-19 in Scottish care homes being 47% to England’s 30%.
Careful with those “proportions”… care homes haven’t been hit harder in Scotland than England. Still, I agree that prioritising care homes and NHS staff seems like the right move.
EDIT: looks like your data is from before August as well. A lot has happened since then.
Look to recent numbers - care home deaths in scotland are falling now - in england rising.
I though some people here would find this post interesting.
https://idjotherwise.github.io/nlp-otherwise/covid/eda/2021/01/22/covid-england.html
An analysis of death rates in England, with some pretty graphs and code examples to boot.
The number of 80-year-olds vaccinated in Scotland by Friday stood at 13%
That number was refuted by the FM at the daily press conference. I can't recall the exact phrase she used but I'd paraphrase it as something to do with plates and arses.
Did she do the laser eyes thing? Effing scary her dirty look 🙂
Nah, it wasn't that one. It was the condescending "are you an absolute idiot" look, combined with the smirk.
That number was refuted by the FM at the daily press conference. I can’t recall the exact phrase she used but I’d paraphrase it as something to do with plates and arses.
She descried it as "inaccurate" even though it was based the latest published data - good to see Trumpian politics outlive their inventor.
I'd like to retort but I guess this thread is best with the politics kept out of it
apologies for my part in taking this to politics
I think that most people don't write grasp what frontline NHS staff means. The average person probably thinks it's just Doctors & Nurses in ICUs but the reality is that it's anyone who is doing clinical work in contact with patients whether in-patients, out- patients or community based.
@tj - if you were treating a member of my family I'd want you to be jabbed up so don't feel guilty about it.
@tj You're of no use to NHS if you get sick. I'm guessing that we'll need many of the staff to work in hot zones in hospital before the peak is over just to ensure the load is balanced.
Stay safe.
Well, I wonder who will get those two @ ‘s
Ta folks. I really am hoping to avoid any more contact with covid. One outbreak I had to work thru was nasty enough. How those on the real front line are coping I do not know.
Ta for the kind words
Almost 1/2m patients vaccinated yesterday – really great to see the vaccination programme moving so quickly.
Yeah, numbers will be high, when they are going against scientific advice and the actions of the rest of the world by delaying the 2nd jab. Which is probably why they are doing it
Yeah, numbers will be high, when they are going against scientific advice and the actions of the rest of the world by delaying the 2nd jab. Which is probably why they are doing it
Not delaying would also be going against scientific advice, there are two schools of thought - probably more, we are following the advice from the body set up to advise the government for this purpose.
Aye - more of the population with some immunity or less of the population with more immunity
Trouble is I feel no confidence in Johnson making decisions for the right reasons - the headline figure of numbers given a jab will be his guide
I have been told my second jab will be 6 - 8 weeks
Trouble is I feel no confidence in Johnson making decisions for the right reasons
This
And I'm pro Conservative
With the 12 week gap, does that mean they won't be going down the priority list until everyone has both jabs in the higher risk groups?
With the 12 week gap, does that mean they won’t be going down the priority list until everyone has both jabs in the higher risk groups?
Who knows, but presumably if the whole thing isn't to grind to a logistical halt at that point, they have to increase both the supply of the vaccine and the capacity to vaccinate. You can make an educated guess that Boris and co haven't even thought that far ahead - this is government by essay crisis and the dog ate their homework.
Just under 492,000 vaccinations yesterday with NI still to report.
Lots of recent reports in the papers of the EU having their scheduled vaccine deliveries reduced by both Pfizer and AZ. Have the UK been affected?
I think it is the belgian plants being affected.
AFAIK the Pfizer is coming from Belgium so might be, but the az one is being made in Wrexham
I think the site in Wrexham just puts the vaccine in vials, so I think we could be impacted by the 60% reduction in capacity
Back from this mornings session and went well, although we're getting intermittent supplies now, I think we've got another dose of Pfizer coming this week, and maybe (I'm really not sure, as I'm not in the gang that sorts the logistics) some doses of AZ. so while in our PCN site we're already invited Priority group 4 (<70 and Extremely vulnerable) we're not vaccinating on as many days in the coming weeks as we have been for the last fortnight.
Are you told what you've been given - Pfizer, AZ? And is the plan that you'll be given the same when you get the second dose?
IMO it's entirely appropriate that you get the jab tj. anyone who is in and out of a clinical establishment for the course of their employment should be treated as a priority alongside the elderly and infirm.
Are you told what you’ve been given – Pfizer, AZ? And is the plan that you’ll be given the same when you get the second dose?
Had to take my elderly mum for her jab a week or so ago as she's currently in a wheelchair. She was told she was getting the Pfizer jab and given an info sheet specific to that vaccine. She was also given a card with "Pfizer biontech", the vaccine batch no. and date given recorded on it. There is a box below for all the same details to be recorded for the second jab
Are you told what you’ve been given – Pfizer, AZ? And is the plan that you’ll be given the same when you get the second dose?
As a patient? Yes, you get a wee card that has the detail on it. You don't get a choice but if you've had a severe anaphylaxis reaction to a flu jab before, you'll be offered the AZ.
Yes you'll get the same vaccine for both doses.
Thanks blokeuptheroad and nickc. I'm waiting to hear when my wife and I gets ours (I'm over 70).
Would a 4 tier system not be better but horrendous to impliment.
Tier 1 gets jabbed 3 weeks apart
Tier 2 gets jabbed 6 weeks apart
Tier 3 gets jabbed 9 weeks apart
Tier 4 12 weeks
Tier 5 12 to 15 unless T cell productiin falls with very long gaps
Tier 1 80+ medicaly vulnerable
Tier 2 70 +
Tier 3 60+
Tier4 50 plus
Tier 5 every over 21
lotto
Free MemberIt was a reasonable decision to start in the care homes first as patients were moved from Scottish hospitals into care homes without tests or with their positive tests ignored when it had been stopped elsewhere – resulting in the proportion of deaths with Covid-19 in Scottish care homes being 47% to England’s 30%.
OK so this was a blatant misrepresentation at the time and it still is today. The proportion of deaths in Scottish care homes was only higher because the number of deaths across the population was lower. It was literally a case of taking a good stat and twisting it to create a misleading stat. It's pretty sad to see it still being repeated but I guess that's the nature of the game.
Not delaying would also be going against scientific advice, there are two schools of thought – probably more, we are following the advice from the body set up to advise the government for this purpose.
It's a big jump from 3 to 12 weeks - which suggests the government were given a range and went for one extreme of it. Which would be a fairly high risk strategy as there is no margin for error. You have to wonder if the government is hoping evidence would turn up within the next month or so pointing to one jab being effective enough. I'm a bit concerned that vaccination could be too successful - if we start getting to 3 to 4 million a week then in 8-12 weeks we have to be at 6 - 8 million. A better approach might be to start on second doses now 2 million a week is being hit. I'm not proposing stopping at 2million but to grow the number of first vaccinations a bit more steadily. It would be better to get the most vulnerable / at greatest risk of infection to maximum as quickly as possible?
About those nursing homes...
Lilly just reported the results of treating staff and residents with banlanivimab as a means of prophylaxis (think passive vaccination). For a population of 299 residents and 666 staff, they noted an 80% reduction in COVID19 infections in residents. I reverse-engineered the (limited) results in that press release, using brute force statistical methods, to show that the two-month vaccine efficacy is impressive in residents (77%), but perhaps less so in staff (38%). Clearly, staff have much higher exposure to contagion, which suggests that the vaccine efficacy in the Phase 3 Pfizer trial may not be has high in people working in high COVID exposure roles. The protection from serious infection looks like a robust conclusion.
Local authority FB page posted to remind people to Stay at Home, Protect the NHS, Save Lives.
First response is some bloke saying "I pay my taxes for the NHS to protect ME, why should I gave to protect them?"
I ignore it, thinking it's just some knob thinking he's being funny, but no, there's a load of posts supporting him, wanting to know what the NHS has been doing with all the millions they've saved by not doing routine operations and cancer treatment.
I just despair sometimes. Is there not some way of linking people's posts on FB to their vaccine invite, and using it as a way to just discreetly cull the idiots?
Worth repeating here. Covid is good business for Tory donors. Why this isn't frontpage news shows how broken and corrupt our system is.
Of the million laptops Government ordered for remote learning during lockdown, more than three quarters have come from Computacenter. The total value of the contracts awarded to Computacenter is at least £198 million. Its founder, Sir Philip Hulme, has donated hundreds of thousands of pounds to the Conservative Party in recent years and Mr Hulme’s wife has also donated £100,000 as recently as the 2019 Election.
And now it transpires that some of the laptops supplied do not meet the minimum standards set out in the DfE specification and many contain malware.
A school in Bradford which received 90 Geobook 1E laptops via the Computacenter booking system this week found they had been handed devices infected with a malware virus. A letter from the school’s deputy head states: "Upon unboxing and preparing them it was discovered that a number of the laptops are infected with a self-propagating network worm (Gamarue.I). The network worm looks like it contacts Russian servers when active."
An online forum used by school IT experts suggests this is far from an isolated incident - numerous schools have reported the virus to the DfE. Reports suggest laptops have arrived with no sound driver installed, causing access issues for pupils.
And, from what we can see, it appears that the price they’ve charged for some of their devices is almost twice what it should be. The DfE has redacted key pricing documentation from the published contracts, so we are unable to provide a definitive cost per laptop or tablet. However we do know that in September and October last year, the DfE placed three contracts valued at £39.7m with Computacenter. The deal required Computacenter to supply 192,400 devices. This equates to an average cost of £206 per device. But experts have told us they would expect the basic laptops to cost the taxpayer closer to the region of £100 per device. An education IT expert who wanted to remain anonymous told us: “When it comes to the GeoBook, we had seen similar laptops on sale via China for less than £100.”
The Government is yet to publish the contract award for the additional 300,000 laptops it announced 4 days after we launched our latest legal challenge. So we don’t know who the contract has been handed to - or at what cost to the taxpayer. But on the basis of their track record, you’ll forgive us if we aren’t optimistic about what will come to light.
The COVID-19 goldrush continues for those fortunate enough to have links to the Conservative Party. Sadly this time it’s the most vulnerable families picking up the pieces, and fighting for the most basic provisions to continue their child’s education.
Thank you,
Jolyon Maugham QC
Director of Good Law Project
I can see a link to that Good Law Project article appearing on my FB feed very shortly.....
TiRed,
there was a chap on 'more or less' from the JCVI who explained the logic/reasoning behind the extended gap between doses of pfizer TL;DR average efficacy estimated by pfizer in the first 21 days was calculated as low because they'd started (or rather done their averaging) from day one, when realistically you wouldn't expect any effect at that point. if you averaged starting at day 10 (for instance and my memory is hazy of exactly what was said) you get an efficacy rate of ~90% for one dose?
while i'm no friend of this government nor a fan of how they've handled things it seems like a reasonable strategy to extend the dosage interval if it means you get 'some' protection in to people while production is ramping up particularly in light of a faster spreading virus variant. even if it does mean that hat mancock et.al. gets to quote an inflated number for those vaccinated i couldn't GAS if it means people actually have a better chance with this thing.
and, sorry, there's a very good chance i'm being thick but how do the Lilly findings for banlanivimab relate to pfizer?
Apologies if this isn't the right thread for such a question. I'll happily delete if so.
How risky would a several night stay in a Lake District hotel be in June? Their website says all the usual about Covid cleaning etc.
It's a big if but if the person using the room before me has Covid is there anything I can do to minimise risk? Bring my own pillows? Clean all surfaces with wipes?
Again apologies if this isn't the right thread.
Thanks
Well I've spent the day conducting the analyses the JCVI should have done using trial simulations to recreate the data to 21d and then extend on. I agree with the premise that the efficacy from 0-21d is poor (~50%) and should be disregarded. And from 10-21d is much better (~80%). But what about from 21-84d? Does immunity wane faster if only one dose is given> Moderna reported relatively rapidly waning antibody and neutralization titers in Phase 1. But efficacy in Phase 3 (in about 1000 subjects with one dose). Analysis ongoing. There really is very little data to make the call.
and, sorry, there’s a very good chance i’m being thick but how do the Lilly findings for banlanivimab relate to pfizer?
You're not thick. I just needed more context: Banlanivimab is a monoclonal antibody exquisitely targeting netralisation of the virus receptor binding domain (RBD) of the spike protein. The dose given (4.2g) will have generated concentrations in tissues hundreds of times higher than the polyclonal antibody response the vaccine will make against the same spike protein (alos mainly at the RBD site). So Banlanivimab could be viewed as a best-case scenario of what antibody protection against infection can achieve, or at least in the same ball-park as the vaccine, with regards to protection. I hope that's clear?
I was hoping for more in staff, personally.
Is that the sort of drug we should be offering to every person working on public transport/supermarkets etc until they are vaccinated or is that not a possibility?
You’re not thick
I don't think you have the data to be able to say that with confidence. 😉
Thank you. So, immediate results of a single Pfizer dose pretty reasonable, possible fall off in longer term performance but, more critically, not tested. Correct?
Is Banlanivimab an appropriate treatment for the immuno-compromised? What's the availability? (I have a friend with (I think) hep-b)
Yes. No data on the rate of loss of protect after one dose. That’s the challenge really. I suspect it won’t be bad, but there is little data (none for Pfizer vaccine) to support the decision.
Monoclonal antibodies like banlan should be the first line of defence for those who cannot generate an immune response. They are being tested for prophylaxis and they will come eventually. I’d have given one to my aunt last week so she could be protected for a knee replacement because she’s not vaccinated yet. She postponed the operation until she has been vaccinated.
None are formally approved yet so can’t be used. Give it six months. Maybe longer.
Is there any truth in this or is it selective in interpretation?
https://twitter.com/parismarx/status/1353330538292121602?s=21
You’re not thick
I don’t think you have the data to be able to say that with confidence. 😉
That made me laugh. The cat birthday party story made me want to cry
Thanks TiRed.
Good anti "covid scepticism" site here debunking some of the shit put out by the likes of Toby Young and Julia Hartley-Brewer and their ilk
Quite a hatchet job on that site. Thanks for sharing. I always say that the virus really doesn’t care. There are some rather immutable facts;
A new sarbecovirus has emerged of the coronavirus family.
There is little or pre-existing Human immunity to this new pathogen.
Its readily spread between humans, especially in closed settings.
Morbidity is unknown but mortality is raised, particularly in the elderly.
Those dying are overwhelmingly those not receiving treatment, only palliative care.
Overwhelming healthcare service will increase the numbers forced into only palliative care.
There is significant additional mortality that is far in excess of annual influenza, even with restrictions.
Imparting some form of immunity will help reduce mortality and then morbidity.
In the absence of treatment and protection, restricting spread by lowering contacts is the only available intervention.
You can’t isolate 15m people with a raging epidemic in the remainder.
And a reasonable timeframe for control is about 18mo.
I’m always happy to debate the economics of lockdown, the social issues raised, even the morality. But the science of the above points is beyond question. Skeptics would do well to accept the fundamentals first.
A year to the day since we had our first case in Australia, and a "donut day" in NSW - imagine my disappointment to find out that we don't all get a donut. 8th day now without any locally acquired infections.
Our (one way) travel corridor with NZ has been slammed shut - they've just had a case of the SA variant, so there goes the only exception to our quarantine of new arrivals.
But the Pfizer vaccine has just been approved.... so: swings and roundabouts. They are prioritising all the quarantine workers for vaccination first, and this has been the source of all of our outbreaks - obviously banking on the vaccine reducing transmission
From BBC....
Moderna vaccine appears to work against variants
Thats good news after a series of really depressing covid related updates from the gov. Right now I fail to see how we can get back to some sort of normal.
Great analogy for the hard of thinking about the nature of exponential growth:
Worried Danish leaders have tried to explain to their citizens why they need to stay in lockdown, when overall metrics are good enough to suggest the country should have started to reopen weeks ago.
In a long Facebook post this month, Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen told people to imagine sitting in the top row of Copenhagen’s Parken Stadium, a soccer arena with a capacity of 38,000 people. A dripping tap is filling it up, one drop the first minute, two drops the second, four drops the third. At that rate, Frederiksen said, the park will be filled in 44 minutes. But it will seem almost empty for the first 42 minutes, she said.
“The point is, you only realize that the water has risen when it’s almost too late,” she wrote.
What do we think regarding vaccination passports of some type?
An area fraught with privacy and exclusion issues, but I feel will be inevitable for international travel. I did hear government considering some scheme linked to your actual passport, which could be checked by the airline / travel company at booking or check-in.
I suspect we may need something wider than that, which works on several levels,
i.e. a smart card that can just be shown at pubs, resturants etc, but could be verified electronically with PC + card reader where it maters a bit more (say cinema, big indoor events), to a central database lookup where its critical like international travel.
An "exampt" status may be neccessary for some people who medically can not be vaccinated.
The other issue is security, I can forsee an eBay market for fakes appearing before any scheme is even rolled out.
International travel is still likely to be based on tests, not vaccinations, unless vaccinations are shown to prevent rather than just reduce transmission. As for pubs… not going to happen. When they open again it’ll be for all, but with social distancing measures in place again. Being open only for the vaccinated won’t be welcomed by the public, won’t be enforceable by the staff, and is just a fantasy talking point for half arsed journalists.
Looks like Britain might be on the receiving end of vaccine nationalism.
I'll post something relatively encouraging for once:
https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1353864909772251138
Still early days, obviously, and lab studies don't always translate to success in actual humans, but definitely worth further research.
Treatments will continue to develop - we'll come out of this pandemic knowing so much more about viruses.
What do we think regarding vaccination passports of some type?
It's inevitable, but for travel, I can't see it working in the likes of a pub. Two staff on my wifes ward have refused the Pfizer vaccine as they want the O/AZ one, 'cos it's British, and they're thick as ****.
In their cases I'd have them sat at home on SSP until they rethink.
So.... hotel quarantine anyone?!?
I seem to remember that being mentioned previously
Looks like Britain might be on the receiving end of vaccine nationalism.
I did fancy the EU would try something like this, but not sure how they can expect AstraZeneca to earmark and hold vaccine supplies for EU citizens when the approval process is moving so slowly, and there are even mutterings about not approving it for over-65s, is beyond me.
As for export bans, I'm sure the companies involved would use the European courts to nullify the immediate impact of any attempt.
Another demonstration of how it feels to be outside a major trading powerhouse, though. I'm sure our 'buccaneering spirit' will see us through. Perhaps we should send a gunboat. 🙂
So apologies if this has already been covered, but I couldn't see it......
Whilst the government is rightly promoting news about the high numbers being vaccinated (1st dose) there's growing news about potential delays and downgrades to the supply of the A-Z and Pfizer vaccines.....so the concern for me is the potential for both 2nd doses being missed beyond the already stretched period and the daily rate of new (1st dose) vaccinations dropping dramatically.
We're on the cusp now of starting to need millions of 2nd doses for all those 80yr olds and HCPs to keep them within the 12 week window ...so in order to maintain that high daily number of new vaccs (1st dose) into the next priority groups e.g. 65yr olds, the supply needs to double...that doesn't seem to be what's coming out in the press about supply.
So…. hotel quarantine anyone?!?
I seem to remember that being mentioned previously
It's worked well in NZ and Aus.
Agreed - but it's a poor move on the part of the EU - the British will resent potential deaths being caused by the EU because they renege on a contract due to their own supply and approval issues. I think that will set the tone for future relations if such a tone hasn't already set in.
Getting a vaccine shouldn't be a "passport to freedom" We can't say to people no vaccine stay inside. However I can totally see a world where it would be recommended as a list of jabs you need like say rabies when you go on holiday. But I agree with Kelvin likely situation will be some sort of negative test before / after landing in a new country. Although if countries say no jab no entry that's totally their decision.
I think that will set the tone for future relations if such a tone hasn’t already set in.
Aye, bit disappointing that they've descended to the same level of shithousery as us. But scarce resources always tend to bring out the worst in humans.
.so the concern for me is the potential for both 2nd doses being missed beyond the already stretched period
This. Zahawi was sticking to his 'confident about supply of 1st jab' line, but my concern would be that while we would probably get enough to x2 vaccinate under a 21 day schedule, our decision to delay the 2nd dose means that overall we will need more pfizer doses, and I'm not convinced we've secured them. Another issue is how Pfizer deal with the 'extra dose out of every vial' thing. They are contracted by dose not vial, and our calculations may not account for Pfizer reducing the number of vials they provide in response.
Aye, bit disappointing that they’ve descended to the same level of shithousery as us. But scarce resources always tend to bring out the worst in humans.
I think the saying treat others as you wish to be treated sounds about right. It seems a bit of a non story from me but no one can blame the EU for looking out for their best interested. I mean after all we decided to buy up millions of vaccines without a thought for the rest of the world.
At the moment the Pfiezer vaccine is the backbone of the UK vaccine response isn't it? I don't think it's a non-story at all.
It's not clear to me whether Pfizer are reducing all contracted supplies equally or just the EU is getting the shitty end of the stick. Assuming they are reducing exports in line with EU shipments then yeah it's a bit crappy of the EU to try and further reduce exports to increase their own supply.
I'm so not going to Portugal at the end of May am I ?
No happening.
I’m so not going to Portugal at the end of May am I ?
Not unless you fancy a further 2 weeks in Costa del Slough on your return....
Its the right thing to do for controlling new strains coming in from other countries, but doubt it'll go down very well when people find out they cant have their 2 weeks in Magaluf this year.
I mean after all we decided to buy up millions of vaccines without a thought for the rest of the world.
This. Looking to ensure your own supply works both ways. When "we" do it, it's "good" news.
This. Looking to ensure your own supply works both ways. When “we” do it, it’s “good” news.
Agreed - I might have laughed my cock off when I read the headlines after the responses to my opinion in the vaccination of under 50's thread.
Good luck ****in vaccinating all those with the first Pfiezer dose all over again and the rest of us with the AZ vaccine by September
I’m so not going to Portugal at the end of May am I ?
No, sorry fella.
So…. hotel quarantine anyone?!?
I seem to remember that being mentioned previously
It’s worked well in NZ and Aus.
*waves from Sydney*
There is significant additional mortality that is far in excess of annual influenza, even with restrictions.
Are there estimates available for how many people in the UK would die from flu every year if there was no vaccine against it available?
it's not great news obviously but although the Pfizer one was used first hasn't the UK got (or ordered?) much more of the Oxford/AZ one?At the moment the Pfiezer vaccine is the backbone of the UK vaccine response isn’t it? I don’t think it’s a non-story at all.
Yup - but are we doing mixed doses now?