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The ‘debt’ created by covid will be dissappeared in the time honoured way.
making working class people 'pay' for it while giving big tax cuts & perks to party donors?
Young people - the impact will continue for many years while the over-50's enjoy a cruise via triple lock pensions....
Not going to happen. The ‘debt’ created by covid will be dissappeared in the time honoured way. It will never be ‘paid back’.
Ah, my mistake. Austerity never happened. I enjoyed however many years of pay freezes for shits and giggles. As you were.
making working class people ‘pay’ for it while giving big tax cuts & perks to party donors?
By holding interest rates at very low (ie zero) levels the debt will disappear as savings lose value to inflation. It's the way its always been done. The people losing out will be the ones with money in the bank, whereas those in debt will benefit - mortgage holders at least, those holding unsecured debts will be ripped off as normal.
Why not overbook then
Add 10% to the days total pts, if they do all turn up then apologise, give their bfh and a pack of rich tea biscuits
But ensure they are 1st inline next time.
Why not overbook then
Add 10% to the days total pts, if they do all turn up then apologise, give their bfh and a pack of rich tea biscuits
Imagine the headlines
"Not enough vaccines to go around as people turned away from centres"
From other posts i imagine its the process to book a job which is the issue rather than people turning up which is an issue.
To do these things at scale, I imagine that everyone will have had a text/email asking them to book an appointment online.
What percentage of the over 80's will this be appropriate for?
The less tech savvy will be reliant on waiting for a traditional phone call which will come in time, its just quite labour intensive
My mum was phoned this morning as part of the over 80 cohort as where her friends. Booking into slots 3/4/5 days in advance. So I guess may well be the best way to reach the over 80s. She would have been fine with an email/online book too but I'm not sure the practice have her email address and she may be in a minority
People are selling fake NHS vaccination cards on eBay, FFS!
As a practice we do no emailing, and I’m not sure any other practice I know of would contact pts via email TBH. We do texting and if we need to, embed link into texts. Those that don’t have a mobile, we phone. In our practice we’re getting to the end of the <75s and are going to start on the <70s later today or tomorrow.
we do overbook to take acct of DNAs.
big drop in ongoing pension and health care costs
BAT used precisely those arguments for smoking in developing countries.
Smoking also yields cost savings in pension payments from the premature death of smokers.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4502793/
They're not fakes, they are replacements in case you lose your actual one.
Honest.
Someone in Cambridge apparently.
Must have nicked a load from a vaccination site.
Making a fair bit on them too, over 100 sold at £6.49 a pop.
Just reported it as fake, not that ebay will do anything though
People are selling fake NHS vaccination cards on eBay, FFS!
And the guy who injected an old lady and charged her £160 - is there a hole deep enough for him to be buried?
The vaccine cards are just a bit of a reminder ( they have no ID so can’t be used to indentify anyone)
If people are buying fake ones, then good luck them 😂😂
I'm not happy with the 'oldies' bashing on here. Not all oldies are a drain on society, some are still working at the age of 70. Many have been and were doing lots of voluntary work.
Many are fit and healthy and taken care of themselves.
I know quite a few 'younguns' who have all the latest gubbins and expect everything to be given to them, don't care about their health and mis-use the NHS.
Hopefully everyone here will be elderly one day and I would like to think we would be respected, treasured and looked after. Not seen as a burden.
Lets all be kind to one another regardless of age.
convert
Full MemberAh, my mistake. Austerity never happened. I enjoyed however many years of pay freezes for shits and giggles. As you were.
It's not really the right place but, you're half right and half wrong. Of course austerity happened, but, it wasn't actually about paying down the debt. It was about using the debt as an excuse to make cuts and changes that the government in power wanted to make. Many of the cuts were expected to actively cost money, others contributed to our terribly slow emergence from the recession which is really the same thing with a different hat on, but that wasn't the point. Other changes were just direct handouts to private businesses. And all wrapped up in the "we have to live within our means" lie.
As a practice we do no emailing, and I’m not sure any other practice I know of would contact pts via email TBH. We do texting and if we need to, embed link into texts. Those that don’t have a mobile, we phone. In our practice we’re getting to the end of the <75s and are going to start on the <70s later today or tomorrow.
we do overbook to take acct of DNAs.
You are doing a lot better than us. Not got through all the over 80s yet.
Our PCN/federation is having us ring them all up and go through a checklist re allergies anticoagulants etc. Before we get to the actual booking a slot part which involves scrolling through lists as different venues all mixed in together. I’ve got it down to 10 minutes per patient just to book the appointment. All our admin team doing pretty much nothing else.
I am told that our PCN which is basically our federation and covers 240000 people the whole of the ccg area, is looking at using accubook from accuRx. I wish they would get on and do it.
Lets all be kind to one another regardless of age.
Yet you use this as an opportunity to bash the young....you are just as guilty of dropping into stereotypes. Just ones that fit your narrative.
Yes, the very fact that I will be old (hopefully) too and was once young I feel gives me the right to be objective and not too sentimental about the different age groups. I am a lot closer to 60 than 30 yet am surrounded everyday by teenagers at work. I think I am probably at the sweet spot of objective opinion on the subject.
On just about every measurable scale the current 60+ age group have had it better than any generation before and by most estimates in the future too. The less introverted acknowledge that. Stating that is not bashing.
Being 'kind' in this scenario might/could involved the wealthier members of the older generations diverting some of their finance towards those that will be most in need after this has all blown over in a token of gratitude.
On just about every measurable scale the current 60+ age group have had it better than any generation before and by most estimates in the future too.
My dad grew up playing on bombsites where there might have been live ordnance. Food was rationed. He was taken away from his family for a couple of years "for his own safety". He did compulsory service in the military. When he first moved into a house with my mum they had one chair and a deckchair, the only way they could both sit comfortably was if they went out to the cinema. They had an outside loo that sometimes froze in the winter.
I'm sure there was a golden era for some over 60s who came into the world just as things were picking up, but saying that everyone aged 60+ had it better than you is just plain wrong.
is looking at using accubook from accuRx. I wish they would get on and do it.
We’re using it here, and you can “just”export a CSV file from EMIS into it and it will sort the patients into mobile and non mobile and sent out invites for you. If you can badger the PCN to eget it sorted, it makes the whole thing about a million times easier.
good luck
.
It looks like vaccine distribution is causing some problems in my part of the world.
Hopefully we won't snatch defeat from the jaws of victory by logistics failures.
If you can badger the PCN to eget it sorted, it makes the whole thing about a million times easier.
Weekly teams meeting tomorrow... fingers crossed I don’t have to badger too hard
Lets all be kind to one another regardless of age.
@Bunnyhop - you're right. We are better than slagging of generic swathes of people. I shouldn't have made my last comment.
I do wonder though - the impact on my 77 year old father compared to the impact on my 19 year old. At present, not much in it. The future could be different though.
Being ‘kind’ in this scenario might/could involved the wealthier members of the older generations diverting some of their finance towards those that will be most in need after this has all blown over in a token of gratitude.
The reason the economy is f**** due to covid has got nothing to do with the fact the older generation are well off. The overiding factor in whether the economy prospers is how much the govt spends/creates and the deficit it runs as a result. It is not how much money older people have or how much tax they pay. Stop looking to blame the old and instead direct your ire at the politicians who continually lie to us about how everything works.
saying that everyone aged 60+ had it better than you is just plain wrong
He didnt say that
Stop looking to blame the old
Please reread without agenda. No blame was attached.
Nicola Sturgeon announced that the current restrictions on Scotland will be in place for at least another 4 weeks. Can't be a surprise, surely?
No. No surprise at all.
She also laboured about not meeting other houses, not travelling, working from home if you can, and not seeing through to completion what we have been enduring.
Addressing the Education Select Committee on the risk of transmission in schools, Dr Harries said: "Schoolchildren definitely can transmit infection in schools - they can transmit it in any environment - but it is not a significant driver as yet, as far as we can see, of large-scale community infections."
Wait, what, schoolkids don't drive community infection?
So what are (50% of them) they being sent home for?
Did I miss something?
The restrictions have given us all good reason to moan… but spare a moment to think about this nightmare scenario…
https://twitter.com/benrothenberg/status/1351227766738452486?s=21
Washing your own hair! The indignity!
@Bunnyhop – you’re right. We are better than slagging of generic swathes of people.
Applies to many issues and groupings. My parents have done well with pensions in the last 10 years, but started with nothing being born in the war.
My kids (teenagers) have lost out on a lot of experiences and opportunities this last year. My parents have also lost out on a lot of the social contract and activities that helped keep them mentally and physically younger and healthy. I can see they've aged hugely this year.
It's been tough on all age groups.
Its not as if the 80s have better things to do though is it. Sit inside watching crap in the attic, or get out to get a vaccine which improves everyone's future.
Why not hava a sms list instead.
Do you live 15 mins from xxxx vaccination hub
Are you furloughed or working from home
Are you able to queue for up to 1hr to potentially use any spare jebs
No guarantee fcfs basis.
If so reply with yes to 0999 etc
1600+ This is xmas gatherings, boxing day sales, pre xmas travel and ineffective government direction and action having, so far a limited effect.
I really feel for amy frontline nhs workers. The long term memtal burden cost is going to be heavy i feel
Of every year of your life, which would you have most and least liked to have been the year of the pandemic?
My second year of working would have been best. Living at home (so I have someone to talk to), no massive commute in an expensive to run car (definite money saving), tech existed to WFH, I knew enough about the job to be useful, I wouln't have missed any big holidays.
I hated school, but got some good certificates from it, and probably would not have self motivated at home, and as someone that pulled my finger out for exams that counted "teacher grading" would have done me no favours.
The few years I spent self employed would have been bad but not irrecoverable financially.
Any of my university years would have been worst. I can put my life on hold right now, but the uni years were the best and hardest of my life, I'm not sure I could have coped with that at that age, knowing it could never be undone.
Ooh good question! Missing any of my 5 years at high school would've been fine by me. Absolutely hated it.
Would've been gutted to miss 6th form and uni though.
It would also have been hell on earth being stuck at home when I got divorced and had to move back into my parents house!
Lucky to be locked down with my girlfriend as she's my best mate really.
I really feel for amy frontline nhs workers. The long term memtal burden cost is going to be heavy i feel
The short term physical burden is also quite dangerous.e.g. Driving home after an incredibly intense 14hr shift in ICU.
My parents have also lost out on a lot of the social contract and activities that helped keep them mentally and physically younger and healthy. I can see they’ve aged hugely this year.
My gran (who missed out on having a big 90th birthday bash this year) has very much declined due to not wanting to go out and about walking every day and risk getting covid. At that age, I'm not sure that once she gets the vaccine she'll just be able to go out walking again and recover. A real shame when previously she was very active.
That’s the sad truth with the elderly. They are fit until one event stops them. A fall, an illness, or now COVID house bound. My Nan went on walking holidays into her eighties until a fall walking to the shops, then all downhill.
The Home Secretary is saying they are working on logistics plans. I am not filled with confidence. Why are they only now doing this work? It’s like no one delegates any more to let the specialists do the job we pay them for.
The thing about our older relatives holds up. The isolation from family for care home residents is the prime cause of my Mother in Law dying New Year’s Eve. She went from sharp as a tack and learning to use her first mobile phone at 93 to dead in 6 months.
Israel’s coronavirus tsar has warned that a single dose of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine may be providing less protection than originally hoped, as the country reported a record 10,000 new Covid infections on Monday.
In remarks reported by Army Radio, Nachman Ash said a single dose appeared “less effective than we had thought”, and also lower than Pfizer had suggested.
By contrast, those who had received their second dose of the Pfizer vaccine had a six- to 12-fold increase in antibodies, according to data released by Sheba Medical Center in Tel Hashomer on Monday.
I'm, still concerned about the emphasis in England on number of people getting the first dose, rather than number of people receiving both doses.
Some interesting reading related to @kelvin's post above.
The study, published in the New England Journal of Medicine,1 found that vaccine efficacy between the first and second doses was 52% (95% credible interval 29.5% to 68.4%), with 39 cases of covid-19 in the vaccine group and 82 cases in the placebo group.
- https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4826
Note the wide interval.
The second estimate comes from the UK's Vaccine Committee, the JCVI, who decided to calculate the efficacy of the vaccine differently. Instead of using all the data on the number of infections, including from days when the first dose hadn't yet started to work, they only looked at days 15-21. Using this method, the efficacy of the vaccine jumps up to 89%, because it's not being diluted by the relatively high number of infections before the vaccine begins to have an effect. Taking things even further and only looking at the first seven days after the second dose (days 21-28) – because the second dose might not have kicked in yet by then – it's 92%.
However, these calculations are controversial.
- https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20210114-covid-19-how-effective-is-a-single-vaccine-dose
Fun with stats!
Reassuring though, thanks impatientbull.
However, these calculations are controversial.
Flawed would be my judgement. There were TWO, yes two infections in the active group between days 15-21. Two more from 12-21. So extrapolation was based on four events. 39/82 is a worst case scenario because there is no separation early on.
This is my day job, and I'm concerned. I would not have used such an analysis, personally, for such an extrapolation. The data is just not robust. The Moderna data is much stronger.
There is also no data from Israel so very early days yet.
EDIT: Below is the clinical data. Imagine moving those four events around a little (the already look clustered in pairs) and then projecting forwards...
You don't need modelling to see that guessing later than 21 days is challenging
ok, so this page is back on track, however the increasing infighting on p604 clearly shows the impact of this T3/T4/LockDown across the board. Glad that STW is not very representative of the population at large.
I’m less reassured now.
When stats look like wishful thinking interpolation to support hunches.
Truth is, the numbers of infections involved in the trials are not large but they are statistically significant.
I personally have an issue with some of the end points used in the mrna vaccines, but I think the calculations on delaying the second dose are more on providing lots of people some protection against very high protection in a smaller number of people.
Not convinced that is a great plan considering the death rates reported in care homes etc
I’m unsure whether it’s a good plan or a bad one… only time will tell… but I’d rather it was supported by evidence rather than a hunch… I’m highly sceptical about the political motivations behind it still.
What I think should happen now (but won’t) once the dust has settled is that the PM should make a thank you speech to the youth of the nation that got it right acknowledging that they have had the least to lose but had the biggest impact on their lives and finances. 16-24 years olds should get a £XK thank you to rebuild some of the damage done to their education and embryo careers. Only caveat – if you were in receipt of a penalty fine for breaching covid restrictions you miss out. There should then be an equivalent X% rise in income tax on monies earned on pensions for the next 10 years on top of whatever income tax we are all paying by then.
The message should be loud and clear that it was a team effort to get through this but it is a team effort to pay for and make good too and that the oldies need to appreciate that whilst they might have had the most to fear from the virus those that did not die have not had their lives turned upside down quite so much as the young that did the right thing to protect them. That debt now needs repaying.
On a general population level the maths if the numbers are right should work.
But with the groups that are at the highest risk of death i wouldn't be happy.
50% of say 4000000 is 2000000 protected, 90% of 2000000 is 1800000. But that's assuming efficacy numbers and is a horribly general way of putting it.
Either way I'm not sure.
Truth is, the numbers of infections involved in the trials are not large but they are statistically significant.
The effect is large and very well-characterized BEYOND 21 days. But up to 21 days, it's an educated guess. Believe nothing else. I told Matt Keeling at Warwick (on JCVI) this a few weeks ago, and he repeated it on More or Less on Radio 4. I was working on a more robust inference method for extrapolation, but when there is little data, the method won't help!
@tired when will we have some data and info around whether the vaccines provide sterilising immunity?
There is limited evidence on secondary infections in the Oxford trial (from memory they halved), but otherwise it will be many months for population-level data. To be blunt, we are vaccinating those who would die.
One month: Expect to see the proportion of deaths in >85+ fall first, then 75+, then 65+.
Three months: Expect to see the age distribution of hospital admission change to younger age groups, because when the 75+ are protected, they won't go to hospital, then the 65+...
Six months: Expect to see the age distribution of cases change to lower age groups. Only then can you really start to infer transmission reductions.
For the record, I don't expect a high degree of sterile protection from the Oxford vaccine. Some, maybe 50%, and this may halve R from 4 (new strain) to 2, maybe 1 and a bit with herd immunity. Reinfection is noted from the recent study, so I predict that infections, possibly some symptomatic, will again be the case for the vaccinated. But, and it is a big but, they will not need hospital.
So im just jumping back into this thread from a while back but the last two pages don't read too good to me?
Sorry I should have been clear that I meant up to 21 days post initial vaccination in my post
1820 today 🙁
@TiReD - can you remind me of your WAG method going from 'infections today' -> admissions in a week (?) -> deaths (in two weeks)?
What are the false negative rates from the self administer drive through NHS type tests? I was negative last week but seem to be easing my way into some mild form of 'long covid'. Dog walk yesterday left me knackered and with a proper 'brain fog'. I took the wrong turn driving home, which is less than 10 minutes away.
Admissions in 10 days are cases/14. Deaths in 21 days are cases/50. These will change with vaccination. Hopefully that 50 will rise.
Admissions in 10 days are cases/14. Deaths in 21 days are cases/50. These will change with vaccination. Hopefully that 50 will rise.
going by worldometer the peak cases was ~60,000 on the 10th Jan going by the 7 day rolling average. that implies only 1200 deaths a day at the peak at the end of this month. but 21 days ago we were at 40k cases implying only 800 deaths a day now, which seems to be an under estimate, again, 7 day average to roll out the weekend effect.
going by worldometer the peak cases was ~60,000 on the 10th Jan going by the 7 day rolling average. that implies only 1200 deaths a day at the peak at the end of this month. but 21 days ago we were at 40k cases implying only 800 deaths a day now, which seems to be an under estimate, again, 7 day average to roll out the weekend effect.
Might need to used average weekly cases etc I would think.
@TiRed - does you method include mitigation measures?
I would imagine that there be an increasing influence of the lockdown day by day in reducing the transmission, admission numbers. That will be offset by NHS capacity etc.
1,820
I hope Christmas was worth it.
I hope that 1 day of family mixing sending all the kids back to school will be worth it as well.
Perfect time to have a populist as a leader...
But he couldn't have known there was a more transmissible variant going around.....oh no, wait, he did.
Almost wish I did Twitter to share those posts
Do you think Boris cares at all that people WILL have died today because of his narcissistic will to not be the PM who took away Xmas.
Because I don't think he does.
Otherwise he wouldn't have done it...
He thinks it makes him look strong. It makes him look so so so weak
Almost wish I did Twitter to share those posts
I left the platform as mental health went downhill rapidly just before Christmas. I'd recommend staying well away MCTD.
I think that’s wise advice.
I left the platform as mental health went downhill rapidly just before Christmas. I’d recommend staying well away MCTD.
I'm just about hanging on with Facebook
I got rid of Facebook a few weeks after lockdown 1....one of my better decisions recently. I miss the gear exchange pages and the ground conditions page....that's it.
I'm pleased to see there are some areas of blue re-emerging amongst the red where I am on the Southern fringe of Greater Manchester.
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map
while in other news
Police have urged people not to "drive to see the floods" as evacuations of households in the wake of Storm Christoph begin in England and Wales.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55743246
Wot??
Neutralising ability of antibodies typically falls eight-fold with South African variant
If this turns out to be true, are we back to the lockdown vs herd immunity argument? This seems like a policy failure if the vaccine deployment can’t keep pace with the not only global demand but also the rate mutations.
Unless we start looking at this through the effort and timescale required to finish world war two, I’m beginning to wonder whether we’re either fighting a losing battle or in danger of the medical public health equivalent of getting bogged down in Vietnam with ever increasing mission creep.
Any of my university years would have been worst. I can put my life on hold right now, but the uni years were the best and hardest of my life, I’m not sure I could have coped with that at that age, knowing it could never be undone.
University was four years of getting high as **** and playing Fifa with complete degenerates.
It would have been exactly the same with Covid going on, as the students living in the accommodation next to my apartment can seemingly attest to.
University was four years of getting high as **** and playing Fifa with complete degenerates.It would have been exactly the same with Covid going on, as the students living in the accommodation next to my apartment can seemingly attest to.
Four years of travelling around riding bikes and going out for beers would have been fairly badly affected. Selfishly I'm very, very glad this didn't happen when I was a student.
Also a very bad time to be a graduate, as my two cousins will attest to. Imagine trying to find your first graduate job just now...
If this turns out to be true, are we back to the lockdown vs herd immunity argument? This seems like a policy failure if the vaccine deployment can’t keep pace with the not only global demand but also the rate mutations.
This is my worry, we can't keep on locking down year after year, when will it ever end?
International travel will open up eventually, so these variants will freely circulate the world at some point in the medium term and then mutate again and again.
Not exactly an exciting future to look forward to if so, being re-jabbed for new variants and lockdowns to manage them prior to rollouts?
If this turns out to be true, are we back to the lockdown vs herd immunity argument? This seems like a policy failure if the vaccine deployment can’t keep pace with the not only global demand but also the rate mutations.
Surely the key question is about the severity of the disease that would result from the SA (or another) variant in someone who had either been vaccinated or infected. For the current variants the emerging picture seems to be that a second occurrence is generally less severe than the first, so if new versions of Covid end up being very transmissable but generally don't causing severe illness then it starts to look a lot more like the flu which doesn't require such strict measures. If it goes the other way then we've got some big decisions to take as a species.
Neutralising ability of antibodies typically falls eight-fold with South African variant
We need to scout around the genomes, find the best transmitting but vaccine compliant uber-variant and lob it into SA and wherever to duke it out with their variant. Last virus standing wins. 🙂
It's likely the vaccine will have to be tweaked sooner rather than later, then probably tweaked again. It's the way of the world until this coronavirus has circled the globe a few times and lost some of its underlying novelty.
Vaccination is the short-term solution for total lockdown, the medium term solution for partial lockdown, and the long-term solution for protecting the most vulnerable year on year.