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Well. That's no riding for me until 22nd Jan.
Wife tested positive, along with 5 others from her work after they all had to restrain a student (special needs school). Student had been allowed home over Xmas.
Mild symptoms so far, and I'm feeling flu-y so went for a test today.
Just noticed it's almost exactly a year since my first 'Oh shit, is this the one?' moment about news coming out of Wuhan.
So happy Covidersary, everyone! 🙂
Sheer numbers of contacts times duration you can pass it on. If 2% have it, then your chance of meeting someone randomly without it is 0.98. But suppose you meet 100 people randomly in a day. Easy on a packed commuter train with 200 people in a coach.
Surely that situation is very much the rare exception these days?
I’ve been a good boy and been in an enclosed space with a grand total of four people other than immediate family in the past 10 months. So the ones that bring the average up must be really taking the piss.
Unless you are frontline NHS etc, I can’t see how anyone can infect 1.5 other people without being actively negligent🤷♂️
I doubt that the number of infectees follows a binomial distribution. This would mean the situation where no-one else caught it would be more common than it would be if each person was infected (or not) independently with a 1/3rd chance.
Sorry, I have no idea what this means😂
I also think there is an issue about their not being a quantifiable goal for the restrictions. I think it would help people if the government would say that once we get x percentage of people vaccinated and the r-number down to y then we can stop lockdown.
I agree it would be great, but I have some sympathy with the Gov on the challenges to this
- unpredictable things happen; good scientists look at evidence even if inconvenient and adjust their theories in light of it. We don't know what's going to happen, will the vaccine stop transmission, will it last for 5 months or 10? and so on.
- culturally they are terrified of making a u-turn, and we are to blame for that. Every time they adjust policy in the light of new evidence the press, oppo, public queue up to shout 'U-Turn!' as if it was a weakness. Absolute dogmatism is to blame for a lot of the mess we find ourselves in; saying that you made a mistake and you want to rethink is difficult but vastly under-rated.
- from a public PoV, being told that this ends at Easter or when the R number is less than whatever....if that changes for good reason, it's like an extra kick in the balls and you lose conformance thereafter.
I think it would help people if the government would say that once we get x percentage of people vaccinated and the r-number down to y then we can stop lockdown.
The public won't like the true facts, I fear
Seeing as its Hancock I fully support death by social media
https://twitter.com/DailyMailUK/status/1350488068462145538?s=20
Daily Mail link but I guess they bid the highest for the video
Screenshot of the smarmy ****
https://twitter.com/readsector/status/1350487203936395265?s=20
Ok tiRed, am I going to Portugal at the end of May?
Going? Maybe. Coming home? Less likely#. There is a reason why Portuguese is the national language in Brazil. If you had said September? I’d say yes.
#in all seriousness, unlike some countries we have allowed our nationals home. Japan did not. At all. No exceptions!
And why is it news that a minister of state takes a walk? I find exercise helps clear my mind.
There's no guidance against going to the park for exercise though?
Exactly, it's a non story, whatever people think of him.
I would go as far as saying I would like such a politician to get fresh air and exercise. It might help his decision making through better health and well-being.
(One can but hope. 😂)
Guidance gang
Unless I'm missing the point and there are details in the Mail story that I'm not prepared to click to find out, a minister has followed the guidance to get outside and get some exercise, though I see they are suggesting that Boris said not to go out at all this weekend - which I don't recall him saying?
If he has actually followed the guidance, then I'd really like to see the government give the Mail an absolute public roasting for sending out incorrect and conflicting messaging at a time of a public health emergency.
The Mail have already turned on Boris for his rubbish handling of the pandemic, the government owe them nothing, and while the governments messaging has been a cluster **** throughout, the media on all sides have not helped the situation.
My little moan of the day.
Local shop only allows 4 people in at a time. I'm totally ok with that.👍
So why does a family of 4 need to go in (no children) just so one of them can actually do some shopping?
I'm in the distanced queue outside (mask already on) and can see them through the glass windows. Wandering around, not a care in the world. Finally pay and leave. They bought some bread, eggs and postage stamps and were in there over 8 minutes with the shop to themselves. Yes, I looked at my watch.
Why, just why!?😁
Tbh, if that's my best moan of the day I count that as a win.
I can't read all the way through this thread to see if this has already been covered, but, what's going on Covid wise in places like Africa?
Poverty, corruption, people living close together. Is that an example of the crowd immunity?
How are they coping?
How are they coping?
Better than you might think. Outdoor, lower life expectancy so fewer of the most elderly who are dying. South Africa reports the highest burden.
Why, just why!?
Same reason people in a relatively empty Tesco this morning managed to block an entire aisle by holding onto their trolley with one hand browsing the shelves on the opposite side of the aisle, same reason B & M Bargins, that most essential of stores, was rammed this morning when I drove past.
I would go as far as saying I would like such a politician to get fresh air and exercise. It might help his decision making through better health and well-being.
True but no need for him to go to a park. London parks are mobbed these days so a brisk walk round the streets is a better plan.
– culturally they are terrified of making a u-turn, and we are to blame for that.
Balls. They’re to blame. Utter incompetence and lack of vision and resolution, leading to dithering.
It's not about dithering. For years, a u-turn has been seen as politically suicidal - I remember Mrs T as 'This Lady's not for turning!'
If the situation changes then so should the response, and that shouldn't be affected by worrying about whether you got the decision wrong initially. The press, public, etc. has created the situation where doubling down on the wrong choice is preferable to a U-turn which is crazy.
The public won’t like the true facts, I fear
Competence and confidence in your decision making would help. Unfortunately the climate of "we'll be relaxing soon" hasn't helped. Someone needs to pull on their big-boy/girl pants and tell it like it is and maintain the message. If they don't the economy they are trying to save won't be there as too many will be dead, ill or recovering.
I don't think it's the u-turns per-se, more the fact that the steps the govt should be taking have been obvious to anyone with half a brain for 7-10 days before the govt goes and does it. The dither over Christmas being a prime example.
People aren't queing up to shout "U-turn", they're shouting "to bloody late!"
same reason B & M Bargins
You do know B&M sells quite a lot of food don't you?
I don’t recall Japan ever banning entry to Japanese nationals. They certainly did ban entry to foreign residents, even permanent residents.
People aren’t queing up to shout “U-turn”, they’re shouting “to bloody late!”
You're arguing a different point. I don't disagree with 'too bloody late' or even plain old 'incompetent *****wits!'
I was answering the suggestion:
I also think there is an issue about their not being a quantifiable goal for the restrictions. I think it would help people if the government would say that once we get x percentage of people vaccinated and the r-number down to y then we can stop lockdown.
and the problem is that once they make a promise like that they can't backtrack from it because a u-turn seems to be politically more damaging than continuing on a wrong path.
(see also Brexit)
It’s not about dithering.
It is. And publicly denouncing people calling for them to take the appropriate action… sometimes the same day as getting on with the inevitable. They reap what they sow. For example all the “cancel Christmas” jibes aimed at the London Mayor, and the Leader Of The Opposition, before changing tact at the last possible moment, and throwing everyone’s plans for Christmas up in the air. Late, late, late with everything they do. And then, this year… one day of term with all kids on site? One day!?! They couldn’t have acted the week before? Part time Prime Minister.
once they make a promise like that they can’t backtrack
In normal times. But Johnson promises jam tomorrow, constantly, and then when tomorrow comes, and there’s no jam, he promises something else… and so on… for a whole political career. Promise good times soon, to distract from poor governance now… and keep that rolling on… and on… ‘till it’s time to move onto the next job.
I'm answering a specific point.
I absolutely agree they have dithered and ****ed up time and again. No doubt. But that's a different matter.
Having reread, I agree… fixed parameters around ‘re-opening’ don’t allow for the flexibility required… and no one would believe they’d stick to them anyway… so pointless. Can have “aims” and “milestones” though, to help people understand if things are going the right way, and what we are trying to achieve.
They certainly did ban entry to foreign residents, even permanent residents.
At the very beginning I thought they closed borders completely. Son2 had a trip planned so we were watching closely. But I may have been mistaken. You’re right about foreign nationals. They definitely weren’t allowed back in. To what may well have been their home!
A little perspective here. The mortality rate for the 85+ age group is about 300/100,000 per week. Suppose one vaccinated 25,000 over 85s. Then in the week that they were vaccinated, 75 would die just by chance - typically 11 on the day of vaccination. This is a “Poission” random process with standard deviation equal to the square root of the mean (8.7 deaths per week). If we set four standard deviations as of concern, that would require 110 deaths per week or 16 deaths on the day of vaccination.
You can be absolutely certain this number is being measured everywhere and Pfizer will be doing the above age-standardised death calculation. The difference in Norway is that they have chosen to report it publicly.
Where’s Andrew Wakefield? He’s made inference of vaccination effects based on spurious temporal causality, I believe.
https://twitter.com/dannyjnwong/status/1350559132550647809?s=21
https://twitter.com/dannyjnwong/status/1350571816297795584?s=21
It’s not about dithering. For years, a u-turn has been seen as politically suicidal – I remember Mrs T as ‘This Lady’s not for turning!’
I completely agree and think this point is worth emphasising. I can't think of any other industry where reviewing a decision and then changing your mind based on the evidence is considered a bad thing.
My suspicion is that this stems from the aggressively macho culture at some private schools where perceived strength is everything, and changing your mind reflects weakness.
The issue with the Government's utterly terrible handling of this crisis is because of a reluctance to make any decision and then being forced into taking drastic action at the last moment when it's too late. <<< that is dithering, not decision making.
I for one have not been listening to the government. Only reading what's on this superb thread and following other scientists on the news.
My 81 year old mother says -'I know what's going on', if I gently try to tell her to be careful. However she just carries on with her life. She's now thankfully had her first vaccination, but doesn't understand that things are now 'not normal' and won't be for a few years yet.
The government have got to be honest. We need to be told the truth. It's infuriating.
Sorry for rant, but sometimes one just needs to vent.
rethinking on this, my brexit reference isn't the right example because there are plenty who (for whatever reason) still want it in spite of the negative consequences, despite what we think that's not clear cut.
The better example is the Rashford / food vouchers issue.
Although still somewhat ideological, 90% of people, politicians, etc. know that the original decision to stop them sucked. It was clearly a wrong decision. But it became impossible to change the decision, because it's seen as weakness, and the press and co are queuing up with allegations of u-turns. Which we take some of the blame for, we all jump on them. It was only when forced to make the change that they did, it wasn't the clear evidence but the pressure.
The problem ISN'T u-turning, it's making shit decisions in the first place, that require u-turns.
Back to CV19 - it's absolutely not as clear cut what the decision should be, there's the balance of public health vs economy and long term impacts, etc. The process is to listen to expert evidence, weigh up the pros and cons, make a decision.....and then as new evidence comes to light, reevaluate and if necessary change.
TL;DR - hold them accountable for the decisions they make, not for the process of revising as new comes to light - as Flaperon says that's what all other rational organisations do.
But it became impossible to change the decision
Accept, they did. What they seem to find impossible to do, is say they got it wrong.
I think with the U Turns, it's often something that seems quite likely
Yet the government sends out ministers the week before to repeatedly insist their current plans are great and they definitely won't be doing the things we all know they are going to do shortly anyway: lockdowns, school closures, exams, free school meals...
They tie themselves in knots justifying a position, only to do the reverse a week later
It erodes trust & confidence & also reduces compliance
Yep. Hold a hand up, say that they made an error and it's now clear we should do something different. That's not weak, it's strong.
(making consistently wrong decisions in the first place......different matter)
They tie themselves in knits justifying a position, only to do the reverse a week later
And they, Johnson especially, deride, call dangerous, label as doom-mongers, and make jokes at the expense of those calling for an action… only to then go into “alas” mode, and take the action well after the most effective point of doing so.
Yup. The defining feature of this government is that even when they do the right thing, they'll do it badly. It's like instead of undermining specific positions by making u-turns, they've decided to undermine absolutely everything ever. The really weird thing is, it can't all be incompetence or arrogance, at least some of the time it has to be deliberate. There's no way it could be so consistent otherwise.
Maybe they've convinced themselves it's political genius and that they're basically becoming jellies that can't be nailed to a wall, or maybe they think that by doing it all the time it means it's no longer interesting to people but the harm it causes is incredible.
The really weird thing is, it can’t all be incompetence or arrogance, at least some of the time it has to be deliberate. There’s no way it could be so consistent otherwise.
I really think its that simple. Even more than before this Gov' made up of private school mates who have had so much privilege throughout their lives they have never been told no or that they could actually be wrong about something. Handcock typifies this with the way he handles the press and public. He really thinks the idea of giving a straight truthful answer is below him. Sorry I despite the Tories, they are worse than vermin! /rant over.
Another post of yours I want to stick a big heart next to Joe! I agree with all of that.
But, I have a rare occasion to agree with a Tory MP here…
https://twitter.com/simon4ndorset/status/1350381712803590144?s=21
Fair but wash your mouth out with soap regardless
Hard to describe people who lie to take advantage of accommodations for people who need them, when they don’t themselves, such as disabled parking bays, or mask exemptions, without reaching for some fruity expletives. I fully support the language used by this Conservative MP toward Laurence Fox… they describe him, his actions, and his incitement to others to follow his lead, perfectly.
Leadership is taking the unpopular decisions before they make themselves. I think on that count, we've been let down by HMG, personally.
Interesting article in the Sunday Times today berating lockdown skeptics, notably Toby Young, Mike Yeadon and Sunetra Gupta. It's worrying times when one agrees with every word Dominic Lawson has to say. Leaves you feeling a little dirty. A bit like agreeing with Rod Liddle, who's also come down hard on the government for poor leadership during the past year.
When you're wrong, be wrong BIG... (September 7)...
Executive Summary
Evidence presented in this paper indicates that the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 pandemic as an event in the UK is essentially complete, with ongoing and anticipated challenges well within the capacity of a normalised NHS to cope. The virus infection has passed through the bulk of the population as a result of wholly natural processes and evidence indicates that in the UK and other heavily infected European countries the spread of the virus has been all but halted by a substantial reduction in the susceptible population. This has occurred because the level of infection required to introduce enough immunity into the population to reduce the reproduction number (R) permanently below 1 occurred at markedly lower infection rates and loss of life than had been initially anticipated. The evidence presented in this paper indicates that there should be no expectation of a large scale ‘second wave’ with smaller localised outbreaks when the virus contacts pockets of previously uninfected populations.
Sauce https://lockdownsceptics.org/addressing-the-cv19-second-wave/
Like I said before "Often wrong, never in doubt". I prefer the opposite, personally
Another post of yours I want to stick a big heart next to Joe! I agree with all of that.
Thanks dude, sometimes i have my moments.
Oh hurrah, stricter restrictions on incoming travellers at long last...
Unfortunately that'll be me then. poo.
Got to fly home from the ship next week, departing from Guyana, South America.
Although we seafarers are lucky enough to be exempt from Self-Isolation in normal circumstances, not so if coming home from Guyana.
Normally I'd suck it up, but current work routine is only 4 weeks at home, 2 weeks hotel based monitored isolation, 6 weeks on ship. Now 4 of those weeks at home is with the whole household locked up for 10 days. Bit shit innit.
Now hastily looking for a treadmillto add to the Rowing mahine and turbo.
Any ideas why the vaccines rollout in Wales is so slow compared to Scotland or NI?
Let's call it patchy. My 80yo dad hasn't had a call yet about 1st round of jab. I'd say in Scotland the further from the central belt the patchier it is, unless there a push for good news about rural inoculation.
Seems to be something going wrong in Scotland. A few weeks ago we had vaccinated a bigger % of the population than england, now its less. My 80 yr old parents have not got a jab yet or even a date
I can get one as a healthcare worker but reading the small print I am not a priority. I can't make my mind up whether to go for one or to wait a few weeks
Scottish vaccine is being given to care home folk first and they take longer per person. Maybe similar in Wales?
My sister in Fife has been vaccinated as she is a nurse who vaccinates people. My granny in Fife (92!) hasn't heard a peep. Sis was saying she's vaccinated folk from Specsavers? Health workers? Lots of hospital staff are getting jabs to use vaccines at the end of the day that would be wasted otherwise.
Apologies is the question's been covered already, but I was hoping someone might know what's happening with regards to the 2nd jab?
There was talk of delaying it to allow more people to have the 1st one. Was that just tabloid rumours or has it become policy? If so how long is the gap between 1 and 2 likely to be.
My dad (mid-70s) is typically pessimistic, and has a steady diet of The Daily Express, so it's good to be able to balance his worst case scenario expectations.
He's convinced he won't get his first for another month (which he'll have to travel half way across the country for) and will have to wait another 3 months for the 2nd...
Seems to be something going wrong in Scotland. A few weeks ago we had vaccinated a bigger % of the population than england, now its less. My 80 yr old parents have not got a jab yet or even a date
I can get one as a healthcare worker but reading the small print I am not a priority. I can’t make my mind up whether to go for one or to wait a few weeks
As said above, I heard their explanation (Linda Bauld) last week regarding care homes, it takes longer obviously, but they're nearly done with first shots now. My 95 year old neighbour hasn't had a letter yet.
I'd take it tj, if you don't, every chance it'll be given to someone from the likes of specsavers as above, someone who can walk on to a centre at short notice, not necessarily someone more vulnerable.
It's more than rumour I'm afraid @verses, it's government policy as far as I'm aware.
When my mum had the injection we were told that the second would follow 3 to 12 weeks later.
Some have had the second jab at 3 weeks though, anecdotally I think they are mainly the ones that got their first injection near the start of the rollout. My oh has also had both injections but she works in the NHS...though she didn't know if she would get the second injection for sure till she showed up at the second appointment.
I've also heard that some GP's are pushing back against the policy and insisting that they do give the second jab at 3 weeks.
I'm vey thankful she (mum) got even the first jab this early to be honest. I'd love to think she'll get the second at 3 weeks but I'm very doubtful. Without crediting the government at all here I have to say I do get why they want as many to have at least the first injection as possible though it's far from ideal.
My wife's second jab was due today (she's a nurse, first one was a few days before Xmas) and they've been told it'll be 12 weeks.
They have done 50% of the over 80yos nationally.
My mum hadn't been done yet,some of her friends were done over the weekend - it's being done alphabetically and we've got s late in the alphabet surname.
Hopefully now they are up to 300k+ a day progress will be quick.
Rolling out to over 70s this week as well - which suggests hitting over 80s must be really regionally with some areas well under 50% and some areas over
Nobeerinthefridge
Free Member
My wife’s second jab was due today (she’s a nurse, first one was a few days before Xmas) and they’ve been told it’ll be 12 weeks.
Well, that's more than a little sh*t.
My FIL who is at risk abs over 80 has had his second dose postponed. It is an educated guess that the first dose will afford sufficient protection. I personally think the data is very weak for the Pfizer vaccine, but the principle is not unreasonable.
Are the morbidly obese (or obese in general) going to be considered an at risk group ? cause i can't see that going down well with the daily fail readership tories.
Sis was saying she’s vaccinated folk from Specsavers?
should have worked at specsavers...
friend of mine (<40) got jabbed on saturday, got a call at the store asking if anyone wanted a jab that afternoon
Any ideas why the vaccines rollout in Wales is so slow compared to Scotland or NI?
Supply is lumpy so Welsh Government is holding back some so vaccinators have a consistent workflow rather than having a few days potentially twiddling thumbs -charitably this can be described as odd.
My surname is D so that may explain why my mum got 1st jab in week 1 and second in week 3
The BioNtec one , in The Tory homeland of Surrey. Going to see her this week.
Yep, 2nd jab are being delayed/postponed. My ma & pa were due to get their 2nd shot on 20th Jan (this Wednesday) but they've received a text and a call to say it's cancelled, and their GP will be in touch with a new date.
Worryingly, either the person on the call, or my mum, has misunderstood something because mum believes she was told that if they don't get the 2nd jab in 12 weeks the vaccine isn't effective.
How are vaccinations given in care homes? Do the vaccinators have to change PPE completely between patients?
if they don’t get the 2nd jab in 12 weeks the vaccine isn’t effective
It might be a bit less effective, it might be a lot less effective... it's a gamble. The figures for number of people vaccinated look great though, don't they?
How are vaccinations given in care homes? Do the vaccinators have to change PPE completely between patients?
We have done our largest care home last week. Can stay in same ppe if staying in same room for each vaccination- like at a vaccine site.
Fresh ppe required if we have to go to patient’s room because they can’t be brought to us (ie bed bound)
There’s lots of reasons why the rollout is patchy.
vaccune supply isn’t fixed and you only get a few days notice, once this become more routine, I’d imagine it’ll make planning a bit easier.
Most vaccine sites are being manned by GP staff as volunteers, as a PM I still need to make sure my practice can still function, so I can only release staff when I’m sure that will happen. So while in theory a vaccine site may have the capacity to vaccinate 8 people at a time, it may only have enough staff for 5...
the IT we’re using is unfamiliar and not very stable, I don’t think it was designed with this in mind, so when we book in folk to be contacted, it often misses people, so we have to go through the list and call folk manually. Also it’s built around booking your appt online and lots of oldies don’t have phones that can do this.
As groups of practices are sharing vaccine and facilities we’ve had to make sure all pats get a go at the vaccine, so I can only invite small groups of the cohorts at a time, I cant send out an invite to all my <75’s, so as mentioned if you have a surname at the end of the alphabet, apologies.
it’s clear that the communications to pats has been sketchy, out pats are being invited to both our sites and the mass vaccine sites (the later is organised* centrally and has nothing to do with local GPs or PCN )
* in the loosest sense of the word.
it’ll settle down once we get into our stride. At the moment my only really worry is the housebound elderly, they’re vulnerable and we don’t have a good way of getting vaccine to them.
The figures for number of people vaccinated look great though, don’t they?
I'll be the first in line to criticize the govt, but in this case, I agree with their planning, it's clearly better for more people to have "some" protection than for a smaller group to have "full" protection.
East Devon is patchy as well. My 92 year old neighbour still too old while her friend 80 has been vaccinated. The friend phoned on spec and was told there was space at the end of the day so got vaccinated.
They have positioned the vaccination centre in Exmouth which is the bottom left hand corner of the area that runs up to Honiton. You have to make your own way to a carpark in Exmouth then get on a bus and be transported to the tennis courts acting as the vaccination centre.
All GP practices have sent staff over there so are now running a reduced service.
I’ll be the first in line to criticize the govt, but in this case, I agree with their planning, it’s clearly better for more people to have “some” protection than for a smaller group to have “full” protection.
Aye, it's easy too to look at ScotGov up here being slower cos they're doing all the care homes and get all morally righteous over the undoubted tactic from westminster for the numbers to look good, but I'm trying to keep a lid on it, mainly cos I don't think rattling through as many people as possible is a bad thing.
Unless we get proof that 1 jab doesn't do as much as was thought.
it’s clearly better for more people to have “some” protection than for a smaller group to have “full” protection
If you could quantify the difference between "some" and "full"... in the medium term... then I might agree. It feels like a hunch at the moment. One I hope we don't regret going into next winter.
Yeah it’s a hunch, but TBH, lots of stuff we do (in GP practices) is. Not everything can be nailed down as tightly with evidence as we’d probably like.
My mum hadn’t been done yet,some of her friends were done over the weekend – it’s being done alphabetically and we’ve got s late in the alphabet surname.
Balls, too late to change to Aaron A. Aaronson by deed poll? I'll be in October if not.
Thanks for the replies regarding the 2nd jab timescales.
Glad I don't have to make the call between greater coverage of lower strength vs lower coverage of higher strength. I'd like to think someone's looked at the figures and worked out which is best, but I'll don my dad's sceptic hat and say I suspect a bigger number of 1st jabs looks better in headlines so they've opted for that.
If we have a time lag of 12 weeks, then surely this puts other age groups back further in the queue, because everyone will have to have a first vaccination, but the first set of age groups will still be coming round for their second.
Will more people be trained to apply the vaccination and more centres open?
TJ - if I were you I would take the vaccination. I feel it's as important for NHS staff to get this as the elderly -imo.
TJ – if I were you I would take the vaccination. I feel it’s as important for NHS staff to get this as the elderly -imo.
Agree with this. My partner gets her first jab today it's a comfort for the both of us to know she will have some sort of protection when shes meeting people from the community.
TJ – if I were you I would take the vaccination. I feel it’s as important for NHS staff to get this as the elderly -imo.
So say we all.
Sandwich Jr had his first jab last Thursday. Lateral Flow and PCR positive over the weekend! Now isolating again along with the rest of his household.
Just call him "Lucky".
just got back from a ride, and happened to pass a funeral, mourners might as well been holding hands they were so huddle together and not one mask between them.