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Are you seriously suggesting that hospitals in the SE are not on the point of being overwhelmed? The thread I linked to in the post above yours visualises data directly from the NHS.
Hospitals are always overwhelmed at this time of the year though. Yet we have done little about it in previous years.
Euromomo data suggests that excess mortality at present is certainly above the baseline but well down on that seen in April at the peak of the crisis. It is about 2/3rds of April's figures currently.
Ignoring the problems with mass PCR testing, why is there still no data to separate those in hospital because of Covid and those there for something else who happened to have had a positive test but present no Covid symptoms? This is a fundamental issue and we have had 10 months to get a grip on this. Yet the NHS bosses appear to be completely clueless!
It would seem that the problem is not really Covid. It is the perpetual mis-management and systematic year-on-year under resourcing of the NHS that has bought about the current crisis. I would argue that the NHS and its management is currently not fit for purpose and it is this that is crippling the nation rather than the disease itself.
In any case I wonder what are we saving the NHS for? Surely at a time of National crisis like this, it needs to be used in its entirety, not kept with spare capacity 'just in case', crippling the whole economy that will be needed to fund the NHS in the future in the process.
Hospitals are always overwhelmed at this time of the year though.
Things are always bad. The scale of the current problem is something else though. Watch...
https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1347200859516645378?s=20
That is 24% of the UK population.
It's probably half that and was waning. Antibody seropositivity declined in the summer and autumn as the force of infection declined. Lifelong immunity to coronaviruses is not noted for the other endemic four viruses, unlike, say, measles.
There is little evidence that immunity has put a brake on the rate of growth of new infections so far. With a more transmissible strain, even higher levels of immunity are required for that brake to work. The vaccine will induce some protection from disease (at the least), cross-protection from new variants (weaker evidence) and possibly transmission to others (little evidence other than precedence of other vaccines).
I’m sure the Gupta/Barrington musings are an elegantly-constructed hypothesis
Unfortunately the narrative has moved on and been overtaken by facts. Lockdownsekeptics - Toby "I was wrong about that" Young's website has lost its analyst. Today's post on hospitals by "A senior doctor" basically says that London is in serious trouble, and the only crumb of comfort is a slight dip in symptoms on the Zoe App over the New Year.
More than half of all patients in London hospitals are receiving treatment for COVID19. That's the ICD100 respiratory disease, not the positive PCR test.
Does this suggest that like almost all viruses, there are a significant % of the population who are always going to be immune to something new.
No, there is no suggestion but it has been mentioned since the start that there is a very small percentage of people who will be immune. It is also has been mentioned many of those will be asymptotic more so than some other viruses which is part of the contribution to spread.
Without a vaccine herd immunity is a long way off.
It would seem that the problem is not really Covid. It is the perpetual mis-management and systematic year-on-year under resourcing of the NHS that has bought about the current crisis. I would argue that the NHS and its management is currently not fit for purpose and it is this that is crippling the nation rather than the disease itself.
In any case I wonder what are we saving the NHS for? Surely at a time of National crisis like this, it needs to be used in its entirety, not kept with spare capacity ‘just in case’, crippling the whole economy that will be needed to fund the NHS in the future in the process.
I'm starting to see a lot of this kind of posting, it's similar in style to the pre-Brexit arguments. As though we're being slowly nudged into accepting that the NHS is a waste of money and we should dump it and move to an American style system instead.
In any case I wonder what are we saving the NHS for? Surely at a time of National crisis like this, it needs to be used in its entirety, not kept with spare capacity ‘just in case’,
"Save" doesn't mean "save for a rainy day", it means "save from being killed". Where do you see this 'spare capcity', by the way?
True herd immunity is unattainable. There will be an ongoing cycle of mutation and revaccination as there is with flu. Over time, acquired immunity will reduce the impact of this virus in terms of mortality and serious illness, but there will always be those who require the additional protection of a vaccine against the dominant strains coming into winter.
Hospitals are always overwhelmed at this time of the year though.
There are different types of 'overwhelmed'. There is the kind of 'overwhelmed' where other routine activity is displaced - operations are cancelled etc. Then there is the type where people who would otherwise be in hospital for treatment are cared for in other settings. Then there is the type where urgent activity for cancer and other serious diseases is disrupted, or patients with life-threatening Covid are selected for treatment based on criteria such as age and underlying health, and some simply given palliative care outside hospital.
Presently we are reaching the third tier of this in London and the SE, and will be in some other places within a couple of weeks of that.
The NHS has perhaps used 'overwhelmed' too much in its messaging to try to reduce unnecessary activity in 'normal' winters. But the public are about to find out what that really means.
Anti-lockdown campaigners, who constructed plausible-sounding arguments primarily to serve their own convenience and political leanings, are grasping at statistical straws to avoid the truth of what is happening right now in ICUs in our capital city and beyond.
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MH said it far more eloquently than I did.
Am I being paranoid when I hear Johnson saying people will be "offered" a vaccination by such and such a date, and expect that it just means that a few million "offers" will be chucked in the post the day before the end date, and "job done" claimed?
This is the problem we have had all along. Some seem to think you can just wait until the NHS implodes, then say “Right, enough, stop it now”
Sadly at that point you already have another baked in (😖) doubling of cases before we turn the corner.
Going hard early is the only way, but we fail every time.
DrJ
if you are, so am I
In any case I wonder what are we saving the NHS for
It's always worth remembering that the NHS, isn't just three capital letters.
Its one of the worlds largest employers of people. More than a few on here work within it, my partner does as it happens.
There is a human cost of letting Darwinism into the NHS, both to the people it employs and the patients they are attempting to care for through this maelstrom.
Still... clapping, eh?
Just so we can move in. Bratwurst has been banned, again, as they are the abusive troll that keeps popping up.
Thought it might be. He was trying to sound informed and go light on the swearing this time, should have let him warm up a bit.
Euromomo data suggests that excess mortality at present is certainly above the baseline but well down on that seen in April at the peak of the crisis. It is about 2/3rds of April’s figures currently.
In case you've not been paying attention, we have drugs and treatment options now that we didn't have before. Provided we have enough beds, staff and supplies, we will save more people. Ergo, we need lockdown etc to make sure we don't run out of beds, staff and supplies, and we are getting close to that now in places. Nurses/doctors are talking about making choices of who to treat already.
I am in awe of the NHS and it's staff that they are somehow still managing to treat more non-Covid patients than Covid. Incredible skill and dedication.
It's all ok my wife got this tat from the NHS to recognise efforts for operation rainbow 2020. 🙄
Still not got the mystical £500
/ whatever her prorata rate will be from scot.gov payroll told them it will be in theFeb payroll. Sounds like nhs are holding onto this money for a bit
I wasn’t expecting anything but we’ve been given a water bottle and cooler bag thanks to Captain Tom and our trust has agreed to pay us 7.5 hours extra pay at the end of February. Nice little gesture.
In case you’ve not been paying attention, we have drugs and treatment options now that we didn’t have before.
I think this is contributing to the problem. Instead of public-spiritedly freeing up a bed by dying, the selfish buggers are surviving. Have they no shame?
I think this is contributing to the problem. Instead of public-spiritedly freeing up a bed by dying, the selfish buggers are surviving. Have they no shame?
And I bet they clapped every Thursday as well
The news yesterday that anti-IL6 antibodies have an effect on mortality in the sickest patients is very welcome. Previously both tocilizumab and sarilumab failed to show an effect in moderately ill hospitalised COVID patients. By treating the sickest patients in ITU within 24 hours of organ failure support, a signal has become apparent.
Here's the preprint published yesterday https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.07.21249390v1
Like dexamethasone, an anti-IL-6 antibody is a drug that nobody in the ITU should die without having onboard.
For full disclosure, I worked on sirukumab, another anti-IL6 antibody that was not eventually approved for rheumatoid arthritis. It would most likely have the same effect in COVID patients as the above two (which have subtly different modes of action btw).
And I bet they clapped every Thursday as well
Slight aside, but some people are trying to do something at least slightly more tangible than clap:
https://www.nhscoffeeappeal.com/
Nice idea the coffee thing but that’s a very limited list of NHS trusts.
The news yesterday that anti-IL6 antibodies have an effect on mortality in the sickest patients is very welcome
It is. Treatment is getting better and better, isn't it. Now we just need to get transmission down enough so that hospitals aren't overwhelmed and can continue treat everyone using this ever increasing knowledge.
We're getting free tea and coffee. And they've waived parking charges!
@Drac from the website:
If you're in an NHS trust that's not on our list and you'd like to be added (or if you're not in the NHS, but you know of a trust that isn't listed), please tell us. Just send an email to team@nhscoffeeappeal.com, with the name and contact details of someone at the hospital who is willing and able to coordinate receipt of a gift. We'll post the information here quicker than you can say “challenging latte art"
so just find out the details of your local trust, email the coffee organising people, and they'll add it on!! 👍
Now we just need to get transmission down
Or morbidity. Think of the vaccine as prophylaxis against infection with an upside of reduced transmission. I'd be happy if the vaccine turned SARS-CoV2 infections into HCoV-HKU1 or HCoV-OC43 infections to be honest.
Do the mortality reductions of these latest drugs have any age profile to them?
Or morbidity.
Yes, but most of us can help with reducing transmission right now, but we can only watch from the sidelines while a relatively small proportion of the population crack on with delivering and receiving vaccinations. It’s months off for most, and even then takes time to become effective.
Related to that… Moderna is go! Good news for later this year.
have any age profile to them?
Demographics were not dissimilar to the previous ICNARC data - note the elderly do not routinely go into ICU so will not have been treated. Mean age is 61.4. Take off 25 (2xSD) for lower 95% confidence limit giving a lower bound of about 40. Yes that young. Significant imbalance in gender, and a median BMI of 30 (which may also correlate with the gender bias). Note these are critically ill COVID patients, not the mild/moderates most often studied. For comorbidities, 35% had diabetes (see BMI), 24% had respiratory disease, 10% had cardiovascular disease.
Oooh I looked but some how missed that. Cheers Zilog
So no age related differential to outcome, just a statement of the age profile? Would you expect the younger patients to have a better response?
Records broken again today....
1325 deaths and 68K infections.
We need to close those garden centres!
1,325 deaths today. Another 68,000 cases. And at least another three weeks before the tide even starts turning.
1,325 deaths yesterday yet on my single excursions out of the house yesterday and today:
- went to collect a click and collect but didn't even bother going into the shop as the guy at the till and the 3 x customers in the queue weren't wearing masks
- whilst stood on the pavement outside noticed the double decker bus going past. Driver and 2/3 passengers not wearing masks
- big groups of teenagers hanging round last night
- walking the dog this morning was constantly close passed by pairs of runners running side by side - and noticed dirty great pools of spit all over the path in several places.
There's literally no hope for this country - we're surrounded by complete cretins.
3876 admissions to hospital 😳😳😳😳😳
I thought we might get away with 1500 deaths a day being the high point.
now I would be amazed if we don't crack 2000
pools of spit all over the path
You'll just have to lick the bits of pavement without spit on them...
and noticed dirty great pools of spit all over the path in several places.
I saw a £20 on the path yesterday but didn't pick it up because of this!
And my boys primary school keep sending emails home trying to convince parents not to send their kids to school, numbers there are too high. Todays was an appeal direct from Calderdale Council. It said that our numbers in Calderdale had had a 60% increase.
I know heads currently battling to keep kids out of school. The government's new advice is being quoted by parents... one head says that attendance would be over 60% if he allows all kids to attend that the gov now says can attend... it's a mess. The council said they would cut their funding to only cover kids on site if he didn't comply. This is the kind of stuff going on behind the scenes folks. The government is screwing over schools that just want to do what the government has said needs doing to reduce transmission.
President Biden is going for the "first shot as quick as possible" strategy too
https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2021/01/08/coronavirus-covid-live-updates-us/#link-MDVY6ZNGGVFPFEOYVMWIKPVQFE
50% of my sons year group in school this week apparently. (Year 5) we have to send him in next week as we both have to teach live lessons to our classes.
Oh my word. Trying to convince my mother it's -1 outside and she needs to dress appropriately as we could be waiting outside till called in for the vaccine is doing my head in. Breath.....
I'm sincerely grateful to be going but I'll be turning up there with a 91 year old dressed for the Caribbean at this rate.
Even the building will be cold as (rightly) all windows and doors well be propped open, as per text message saying dress appropriately.
Can you not tell her you’re going for a walk in the snow while you’re out?
Hospitals are always overwhelmed at this time of the year though.
Not really no.
Hospitals have their busy period in Dec/Jan, there's more than one reason for this, but old people getting sick is the main one.
It's not really a case of 'Hospital A has 500 beds, once they're full, they're overwhelmed'. There's some flex in the system, in terms of who gets a bed, who gets a high dependency bed and who gets an ITU bed. In a normal Winter they will typically get full, or close to full and they manage that by discharging people into the community to be Cared for at home, and even leaving people on trollies in a corridors etc. If that doesn't free enough capacity they start looking at more serious measures like cancelling elective surgeries, cancelling outpatient clinics.
This winter they've done all of that already, in our local hospital you can't even turn up to A&E unannounced, you need to call first and unless you're in danger of dying, you're told to seek help elsewhere. All the flex is gone.
In the summer, our local Hospital (UHW Cardiff) was pretty empty, the first wave had passed and because they'd cancelled electives and clinics they had record numbers of spare beds. It's no longer the case.
I think it was yesterdays Daily Briefing from the CEO of my Wife's trust she was reading to me, at that point there were no ITU beds left in Cardiff, none. There's a handful in another Hospital in the Vale, virtually none in the Valleys.
Ambo crews are changing shifts in the queue outside, and if you call one and it's not life threatening, you could wait 18 hours, 24 hours, maybe longer.
The next few weeks are going to be really hard, the number of deaths is going to keep rising for a while yet and what's worse it's like a fire that feeding itself because as more people get sick, there's less and less beds available to treat them.
Whether it's covid or something else, I really would avoid doing anything that might mean getting sick or injured at the moment.
Deaths right now are from admissions 2/3 odd weeks ago. I shudder to think what it will be like at the end of January. I want to go and hide under a rock for 6 months.
Where do you live @cheddarchallenged other than some kids ignoring the rules, well their parents allowing it, can’t say I’ve seen any issues much more than that. Oh except for camper vans still seems to be on the move.
Plenty of my teaching friends are saying they had way too many kids in school due to their parents suddenly being 'key workers'. One of them knows the parents work at their local bookies which is shut and they're both on furlough so she did a bit of digging on their Facebook pages only to find them posting pictures of them at a friend's house. Utterly boronic. The parents we're told not to bring their son in tomorrow.
With figures across the board rising fast and setting new records surely people would realise this is not the time to be self-centred. We NEED to all play our part just to get to Easter without overrunning the hospitals.
We are keeping our son out of school despite us both working in critical worker roles (have been reviewing reports related to vaccines this week).
It is bloody hard work doing home schooling as well,but would rather that than both him being in school and also taking a place of someone in the nhs
Commented elsewhere, but as most companies have now sorted out PPE and procedures they're less likely to be closing down during lockdown so there are, inevitably, more kids needing school. If the Govt(s) don't start shutting down more business (and therefore increasing support to them) then that won't change.
Indeed. Many work places are considered “Covid secure” now. The stay at home message from the government needs to be amended, otherwise those workplaces will keep the mingling going, and we’ll stay in a weaker “lock down” than in March, at a time when Sage are warning that it needs to be stronger.
COVID Secure. Saying it doesn’t make it so.
Commented elsewhere, but as most companies have now sorted out PPE and procedures they’re less likely to be closing down during lockdown so there are, inevitably, more kids needing school. If the Govt(s) don’t start shutting down more business (and therefore increasing support to them) then that won’t change.
Just because you can work it doesnt mean you are a keyworker...I mean take me a teacher, I'm only a key worker because other key workers need child care, its a spiral of doom....
Are they opening up the private hospitals to Nhs patients again ?
F*ck that was stressful. Never expected so many people (stupid I know) in such a relatively small space/s
Around 60 inside inc staff and my heads just saying "that means down here in urban Kent, there's possibly about 2 infected people in here".
That said, most were elderly and hopefully have been more careful than most.
Even so, that many people, no ventilation in the rooms.... I was counting the seconds down to the 15 minutes when we could go.
Not been around that many people since March. I didn't realise I'd find that so scary, just being around a few people basically.
Please don't let this put anyone off!
My risk assessment levels are extremely high!
As far as I'm concerned we won the lottery today. On to of that the oh had her second Pfizer jab. That means I'm now the weak point in the chain. I can live with that.
Fyi, pfizer vaccine.
Great news poopscoop 👍
^^Thanks matey.
Are they opening up the private hospitals to Nhs patients again ?
Yes, UCLH at least, cancer surgeries have been moved to private hospitals, again, though the surgeons I know are not keen on the private clinics, especially for more complex cases as the support isn't the same (it's NHS hospital that usually pick up the pieces when things go wrong)
kelvin
Full Member
Can you not tell her you’re going for a walk in the snow while you’re out?
Lol, I did fib and say it might snow. No dice.
Thanks Kimbers, I hadn’t seen it reported it anywhere but that’s a bit of good news at least.
I’ve also heard third hand, that people in London were getting their 2nd vaccine shot pretty much on time.
Plenty of my teaching friends are saying they had way too many kids in school due to their parents suddenly being ‘key workers’. One of them knows the parents work at their local bookies which is shut and they’re both on furlough so she did a bit of digging on their Facebook pages only to find them posting pictures of them at a friend’s house. Utterly boronic. The parents we’re told not to bring their son in tomorrow.
Without sounding too holier than thou
My lab has been classified as essential work this time & I have a letter & everything
But we've decided not to send the kids in, I'd rather the places went to the kids whose parents sound like those above + we have broadband & enough devices so all our kids can work online, I'm not starting work until 2pm & my wife's plan to return to work this September has been scuppered by this pesky pandemic. Its hell, we have a mountain of work for then each day- 4yr old feral twins & 6&8 Yr old gaming addicts, but it's their classmates that aren't on the morning zoom meetings I'm more worried about tbh.
Good news Poopscoop as I recall how worried you are that you took such important measures beyond what most would to protect her.
Some may recall my gran caught it back in March survived but knocked her mobility back. She went back into hospital this am with an infection but seems to be doing well. She wouldn’t let the Dr on the ward see her until she had her chicken sandwich. 😂
I’ve also heard third hand, that people in London were getting their 2nd vaccine shot pretty much on time.
Its all over the place, all the research fellows doing PhDs have been called back to covid work, they were all promised vaccines, but some trusts didn't have enough, one workmate had to ring up & beg the gp as hospital had run out, other colleague sent a message saying her hospital received more doses than expected & had to use them that day, a few extra people managed to get it, but the unused ones got binned 😦
Good news is they've all been done now, tho they start back next week & Pfizer at least is 14 days? until protected
Around 60 inside inc staff and my heads just saying “that means down here in urban Kent, there’s possibly about 2 infected people in here”.
Where was that Poopscoop? Medway?
@Drac
Full Member
Good news Poopscoop as I recall how worried you are that you took such important measures beyond what most would to protect her.Some may recall my gran caught it back in March survived but knocked her mobility back. She went back into hospital this am with an infection but seems to be doing well. She wouldn’t let the Dr on the ward see her until she had her chicken sandwich.
I do recall. She's a fighter eh? Have to say, it was a chicken sarny so she has her priorities right!😁 Hope she is out of there asap mate.
@tenfoot Yep mate, went to a centre at Lordswood. I genuinely wasn't criticising the operation going on there. To be honest it was humbling. The urgency to "get this done" was palpable. Again, humbling. After mum had the injection I did get a bit of dust in my eyes as I thanked the lady that did it.lol
So here in Staffs it looks like my folks were some of the last of the double dose lucky ones.
My wife's parents were due the 2nd dose on Sunday, but their appointment was cancelled yesterday. To say they are disappointed would be something of an understatement. I don't know where or why the cut off point was applied.
We have tried to put a positive spin on it with them - tbf there is something to be said for maximising the coverage in this way - but it still feels a little bit betrayal-y.
^^ I get what you mean.
I'm expecting mum to get the second dose, well, at some point. I have to say though, at this point, I think I'd like as many as possible to get at least the first jab. To my massively hindered logic it makes some sense.
At the moment I know (for an as yet to be determined time) that in a few weeks she will have a decent amount of protection from Covid and the new variants hopefully. Over the next couple of months that gives me some comfort as it's not going to be pretty.
That said, I look at it as another safety net, nothing more. I'm doing what ever I can to keep her safe but if, if I bugger something up there is another fail safe of sorts.
In truth I won't be doing anything different than what I've been doing since Feb/ March. It's just routine now.
Now OH has had the jabs (both) and mum has had the first I will just wait till I get the text at some point to attend the clinic for my turn. It happens when it happens. I'm just fantastically happy there is any vaccine, let alone a few now.😁
Just going to hunker down as it's going to be a terrible few months by all accounts.
Thank goodness for this thread. It's terrified, informed and educated me all at the same time.
I wish more of the population had the opportunity to read it if honest.
It's the very best of STW, along with some other more poignant threads over the years/ of late.
@dantsw13 couldn’t agree more. For me the acid test to covid secure, would be in the event of anyone confirming positive there is no one requiring to isolate thorough potential close contact. If it’s covid secure, then social distancing and PPE and policy should mean no one is at risk......
I know workplaces which are ‘covid secure’ yet people are meeting criteria for defined close contact and having to isolate. Doesn’t scan for me.
It’s a bad name that gives false assurance.
Indeed. It’s purpose was more about reassuring as many people as possible to get back to being fully economically active over the summer. At this point, the government need to make it crystal clear that people should be avoiding sharing work spaces with lots of other people. Go back to working physically together when demand on hospitals has fallen.
I know workplaces which are ‘covid secure’ yet people are meeting criteria for defined close contact and having to isolate. Doesn’t scan for me.
A friend's office was in exactly that situation. The whole place got moved around, desks >2m away from each other, no-one facing anyone else, strict rules about how many people could use the kitchen, enhanced cleaning, no hot-desking.
"Covid-safe" / "Covid-secure"
Now it's closed again and everyone who was in there last week is self-isolating due to one known positive case and everyone in there is treated as a close contact since it was 6+hrs in the same room. Ridiculous when everyone could have quite realistically worked from home.
Last night my NHS worker friend received a text from work, declaring that 'our area are preparing to declare a major incident. Asking all staff to work some extra hours over the weekend, as they are in 'an exceptionally difficult position across the trust'.
'They may have to prioritise cases'.
'Pressures to the point of they may have to stop major life saving surgery'.
'May have to take patients from down south'.
'Things going to get worse over the next 2 weeks'.
poopscoop - so pleased your mother has the first jab, which affords her some protection.
Worrying though the amount of people you encountered in the vaccination centre.
Yep - its getting quite scary.
Just a post for transparency.
Mum complaining of shortness of breath this morning. Nothing dramatic I can notice but I know my limitations and I'm no doctor.
So I handle her saying that in my normal manner. I panic a bit. If she went into hospital at the moment I'd be terrified for her. I'm as reasonably certain as anyone can be that she does not have Covid. So... mind goes to the vaccine of course, not paranoia, just logic. Read leaflet again and check Pfizer online, no mention of shortness of breath as a side effect other than in those having a serious allergic reaction.
Being a born pessimist I'd bought an SP O2 machine back in February last year. Check her blood oxygen, 98%, check mine... mine is worse. Ironically that reassured me.
Check her temperature, normal.
Blood pressure high but she is obviously a bit agitated.
Call 111 as per guidance of vaccine. Get very fast call back, within 15 minutes.
Go through all the details and I mention a growing suspicion mum might be having a bit of a panic attack over the stress of last night. She didn't sleep well either, that's a huge deal for her. She never has a good day after a restless night. Doctor seems inclined to agree but says to obviously call back if things get worse.
Mum's blood pressure pretty much back to normal now.
So, a bit scary but all is well hopefully. Will be keeping a close eye on her.
Absolutely NOT looking to scare anyone off the jab, the opposite in fact.👍
I wish my mother had a son as diligent as you.
I’ve also heard third hand, that people in London were getting their 2nd vaccine shot pretty much on time.
My wife’s parents were due the 2nd dose on Sunday, but their appointment was cancelled yesterday.
Same for my parents (80/85) in Lincolnshire. Were due second jab tomorrow but just been put back until late March. At least one jab is better than none I guess.
My nan is 96 and still hasn't been contacted about her 1st jab. Norfolk
MIL, 85, very high risk (heart failure, AF, COPD and stroke), nursing home, no sign of vaccine yet. Staff have had two doses, but not the residents. South Manchester
@poopscoop - interesting to hear of your experiences which are local to me, of course.
Glad to hear your mum has had her jab and fingers crossed she settles down ok.