Forum menu
I thought Toby Young looked as poor on NewsNight last night as Sunetra Gupta did on the Today program. Where is Mike Yeadon and has he called the end of the epidemic in Kent yet? The skeptical view, most notably the "No second wave, over by October, burnt out due to high immunity levels, flu-like excess mortality" position has been thoroughly debunked by the null hypothesis that I have stated all along (I'd have rather been wrong, to be honest).
Sadly the consensus view about this new pathogen appears largely correct. Relatively easily spread respiratory infection, controlled by contact restrictions, morbidity four-times greater than annual influenza, little risk of death but unknown morbidity in the young, little evidence of the impact of immunity on spread.
I still follow and occasionally comment on lockdownskeptics, but there is now a lot of heat and very little light - swedenborg's data-based posts are worth reading.
"Not even half-way there"
Does the model used assume a perma-lockdown?
What sort of (dare I use it) R rate is that suggesting for the near term future with the new variant?
The calculation I presented was without any lockdown (I did it before this was announced!), but on the other hand, I was probably underestimating the virulence of the new variant.
When I assume a harsh lockdown for 6 weeks it helps significantly but is still pretty grim. There is just too much of it around and even a fairly optimistic R=0.85 only makes infection rate drift down gently.
R=0.5 would make a genuine difference but I doubt it's achievable.
The immunologists seem pretty happy with the vaccine strategy, given the circumstances
ta
one further Q:
without any lockdown
ah, but, free-for-all, or with the tiers system in place?
thought Toby Young looked as poor on NewsNight last night as Sunetra Gupta did on the Today program
You are not the target audience sadly!!
@mrmonkfinger, I was just keeping the same R number that has fitted recent growth, ie about 1.3 or thereabouts. I don't choose an R value and impose it, I just fit the model and see what it comes up with, so implicitly that equates to the growth rate over the past few weeks, when the tiers (in one form or another) were in force. Certainly, we can collectively act to change the R value (in either direction!)
My son's primary school phoned to ask where our son was as my wife is a police officer. She said its very confusing as there are lots of children in school. For the record we haven't sent him in during any lockdown.
I've had a roofer come round this morning and he commented that their primary school was very busy when his wife dropped their kid off. She is in demolition which is apparently on the list.
And another friends kids are in school as he runs an electrical contractors that amongst other things works on schools. She is working from home.
I remember talking to a teacher from my boys school during lockdown 1 and she said that after the first few weeks the numbers had dropped right off.
This isn't meant in a judgemental way, I'm lucky that I have one lovely 10 year old boy to homeschool, just wondering how effective this will be if too many kids still attend school.
just wondering how effective this will be if too many kids still attend school.
In lockdown one I would have a handful of kids to supervise from the entire secondary school. Yesterday I had 20 year 7's and another 20 were in another room. We are better at getting more of the vulnerable in to work in school though which is good, at best most would do no work at home.
Back in tomorrow but with year 10's I think.
From the Unherd piece:
They are all between 60 and 64 years old, none of them with significant comorbidities
Whilst those dying tend to have comorbidities, they account for only 10% of all ICU admissions. the fact often overlooked is that clinical medicine is doing such a good job of keeping COVID patients alive. They are now spending longer in hospital than they were last April. The increase in survival has been very impressive (25% reduction in mortality rate).
headteacher of a large primary i know had nearly half her pupils in by the end of the first lockdown (~300)
God, as if lockdown wasn't bad enough I see they're bringing back the Clap for Carers rubbish on Thursday nights. 🙄
Still, I suppose it might distract attention away from the utter ineptitude of the Government for a bit.
headteacher of a large primary i know had nearly half her pupils in by the end of the first lockdown (~300)
Conversely, my daughter has gone from a class of 35 to a class of 6.
From the usual chaos at the school gates in the morning, today I saw about 10 kids and their parents.
God, as if lockdown wasn’t bad enough I see they’re bringing back the Clap for Carers rubbish on Thursday nights. 🙄
I'd rather a weekly Yell at the Government on a Thursday night where we collectively go outside and shout at them about how shit they are.
Daddy why are we stood on the driveway singing 'you're shit and you know you are' and chanting tory scum! ?
<div class="bbp-reply-content p-0">
All the info I’ve seen suggests we are turning a corner in Kent/Sussex.
sadly it's a corner in the wrong direction for West Sussex. We were right at the bottom of the infection tables with Worthing the actual lowest number in mainland UK. Just before Christmas there were under 20 people in hospital with Covid. Today there are 170. 😔
It must have been the Christmas shopping spree because the place is a ghost town at the moment.
That’s exactly what happened across the border. Rother was lowest in the country for 6 months until December, then BOOM!
is there a possibility that because you were so good previously there are more people to infect still, hence the spike. Others have had lower rates but for much longer so the area under the curve is still broadly equal, but one was a dripping tap and the other a burst pipe.
All the info I’ve seen suggests we are turning a corner in Kent/Sussex.
Where do you see that everything is still going up
https://www.kent.gov.uk/social-care-and-health/health/protect-kent-and-medway/cases-in-kent
God, as if lockdown wasn’t bad enough I see they’re bringing back the Clap for Carers rubbish on Thursday nights
I'm whole heartedly behind carers and key workers, but I can't bring myself to go along with the Tory clapping charade again.
Dumfries & Galloway has gone from bottom of the covid infections table to 2nd from top, not really surprising considering the number of holiday home dicks in the area over the xmas period strolling around the town in family groups, all 9 of the holiday homes in my mothers street were full over the xmas/new year period and the police did **** all
That’s exactly what happened across the border. Rother was lowest in the country for 6 months until December, then BOOM!
That was north kent until November. Then it took off. Aldo very low rates in Sept and start of oct
You probably just getting the new one
Dumfries & Galloway has gone from bottom of the covid infections table to 2nd from top
Borders is 3rd, suppose a bit of hindsight now, but I suppose having tier 1 restrictions would attract those from the North of England.
Only Inverclyde has worse numbers, probably down to being the most deprived authority in Scotland.
Worthing the actual lowest number in mainland UK
You sure about that? Been to Worthing once, it was basically an open air nursing home, probably all shielding right enough.
Conversely, my daughter has gone from a class of 35 to a class of 6.
From the usual chaos at the school gates in the morning, today I saw about 10 kids and their parents.
i just asked. ~150.
A good back to basics article… to remind people why the government has no choice but to lockdown now… if you can call it a choice… and if you can call it a lockdown…
Not a good landmark…
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1346852122285977600?s=21
https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1346852662470389762?s=21
You sure about that? Been to Worthing once, it was basically an open air nursing home, probably all shielding right enough.
I am sure, yes, we're in a fortunate position. Geographically isolated by the sea and the downs, minimal manufacturing, lots of care homes but they are not where the cases are currently. Not much tourism as the beach isn't worth travelling for, not a rail hub.
I think one of the biggest factors was the weather. It was really mild, people were happy to be outdoors where infection rates are much lower.
sadly I think complacency set in, it really did get busy at Christmas in town. We managed to bustle through 'eat out to help out' without any increase.
Is there an argument that our existence as it is with our current eating, working and educational needs is just incompatible with stopping the spread of the more easily transmitted mutation?
It's just phenomenal the rate of increase at the moment, where is the transmission happening?
where is the transmission happening?
Dont know, we should set up a track and trace system to find out!!
Dont know, we should set up a (world beating) track and trace system to find out!!
FTFY
MrsMC is a frontline social worker - been told that face to face visits must continue, with full PPE if necessary (not clear on where some PPE will come from)
Suspicion is that a case has gone tragically wrong somewhere after a social worker kept being fobbed off by parents using Covid as an excuse.
Suspicion is that a case has gone tragically wrong somewhere after a social worker kept being fobbed off by parents using Covid as an excuse.
Grim, but could well be true
where is the transmission happening?
Looks like the data is for England only but it looks like it was originally driven by the 15-24 year olds back in October:
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=nation&areaName=England
(under "Cases by specimen date age demographics")
Lockdown 2 had a small benefit, but its high across most age bands now..
where is the transmission happening?
Secondary schools then onto family members in the home. Look at the age distribution in the forthcoming ONS survey and spot the decline as schools closed, then parent age infections fell.
The survey will be updated presently - this is Christmas Eve, update on Friday
Secondary schools then onto family members in the home
That's what happened to us. My suggestion to cull secondary age children didn't go down well.
Horrendous depiction of what happens to Covid patients without ICU
Shit, that is horrendous
I see there is another thread devoted to it, but i'm with Rowdy Yates Block...
Me Ma & Pa had their 2nd dose of the Pfizer vaccine today.
House party at theirs next Wednesday!
I'm chalking that up as a win, and cannot really say how much it means to me. They are good people, and they've got a lot more to give.
Me Ma & Pa had their 2nd dose of the Pfizer vaccine today.
Great news. Reduces their risk at least. I totally get how relieved you are feeling.
My parents still waiting, but at least 4 months till their second dose is fully effective, which is sobering. Feels a long time away.
I’m chalking that up as a win
Absolutely. Very pleased for you and your family.
A question for all the stwers here who have elderly parents, how did they get to their vaccination appointment?
Also if you took an elderly person did you/they have to fill in a form (as a permission) during the pandemic?
Any other info about taking the person safely if they or you have been sheilding would be welcome. Thanks.
Close work colleague and his wife have tested positive, both with fairly strong symptoms but at home at the moment. Also had two friends from home have it over the Christmas holidays, one is still struggling with it feeling exhausted every day.
A question for all the stwers here who have elderly parents, how did they get to their vaccination appointment?
MrsP's mum got a phone call, think my dad was via SMS - guess it depends on the local health provider. MrsP is taking her mum in today so can let you know any details on forms etc later. My mum took my dad and waited in the car while he got jabbed, they initially thought he was on his own so asked him to wait for a while post jab but when they realised he was being collected he was on his way.
something a Tory is saying
YouTube wanted me to sit through a Farage advert to watch what an "Anti-lockdown Tory" has to say... I didn't bother.
Both my elderly relatives are independently mobile and are booked in for the next few days. Good to know it's being rolled out across the country albeit far too slow. We were promised 10 million doses by the end of last year!
When they get the call my father and his new wife will travel independently. That's assuming that they remain in the country and don't get a big fine for trying to return to France for her birthday later this month.
I think that she believes that they are French residents but we were never told that they had applied for residency. We usually hear this sort of one-up things as everything is a competition and smug is the usual modus operandi.
@joepud it would be more convincing if he hadn't voted against free school meals earlier in the session or Social Care and Health inequalities proposals in the previous session. Just another Covidiot Freedom junkie doing his paymasters bidding not ensuring his constituency poorer residents get the best from his public "service".
Just a quick note to say can people please be patient with those at the coal face trying to delivery this. I'm sure STW'ers are. Appreciate that if people are vulnerable, have struggling businesses, elderly relatives it gets very emotional and with NHS and government logistics involved frustrating though.
My sister (a GP) told me last night that with 6 members of practice staff off with covid currently the remaining stretched receptionists and GPs are getting abuse from people asking why they haven't been scheduled yet. Just not on.
YouTube wanted me to sit through a Farage advert to watch what an “Anti-lockdown Tory” has to say… I didn’t bother.
I don't agree with the anti lockdown message i understand the need for it, but his comments on the impact of those less privileged then himself or myself are valid.
@joepud it would be more convincing if he hadn’t voted against free school meals earlier in the session or Social Care and Health inequalities proposals in the previous session. Just another Covidiot Freedom junkie doing his paymasters bidding not ensuring his constituency poorer residents get the best from his public “service”.
Agree in the past he has done/said some rather stupid things, but I was just shocked to hear a Tory talking about mental health and that I actually agreed with him on those few points.
Couple of questions:
I've seen a few online articles saying more younger people this time in hopsital: is this just beacuse there are more in general so necessarily will be more or has the new variant meant that younger people are being affected as badly as old people?
Secondly, whats the science now on infection from surfaces? i recall in the summer some things about it not really being a route and airbourne bein overwhelmingly the main problem. We are still being super cautious and wiping everthing down with an antibac wipe after post/shopping (appreciate may not be anti-viral but at least should physcially remove stuff) and if possible not using till the next day. No idea if this is overkill or not!
Thanks as always for all the insights on this thread.
How can you argue against things like this?
https://twitter.com/Thomas_Binder/status/1288426973614821377
I’ve seen a few online articles saying more younger people this time in hopsital: is this just beacuse there are more in general so necessarily will be more or has the new variant meant that younger people are being affected as badly as old people?
The data is a few weeks old, but its covered off in section 6:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19weeklyinsights/latesthealthindicatorsinengland18december2020
Hospital admissions increased among all groups aged 45 years and over in the week ending 13 December. Hospital admission rates increased the most among people aged 85 years and over, rising from 146.8 to 172.9 per 100,000 people. Rates have been the highest in this age group throughout the pandemic. Their hospital admission rate is almost 50 times higher than for those aged between 15 and 44 years. The hospital admission rate is lowest among children aged between 5 and 14 years, at 0.6 per 100,000 people.
So, the increase in younger people in hospital is just a factor of there being more people in hospital in total.
Lots of interesting stats:
Figure 7 shows that infections are mainly in the school age groups, which backs up TiReD's statement of schools being one of the main vectors for transmission
(apologies if hes already linked to this update)
How can you argue against things like this?
Testing is not normally done completely at random. The false positive rate when confounded with a sample selected due to symptomatology will be much lower. Whats the rate for someone with a persistent cough and temperature, for example?
My sister (a GP) told me last night that with 6 members of practice staff off with covid currently the remaining stretched receptionists and GPs are getting abuse from people asking why they haven’t been scheduled yet. Just not on.
Yeah, but the customer clapped in the street so they are right to expect to be at the front of the queue...*
.
.
.
* It's crap what many are dealing with at the moment, such selfishness is appalling.
How can you argue against things like this?
Even if it was 7.6%...so what? Everyone in hospital jumps out of bed and is fine again and we all forget the whole thing?
how did they get to their vaccination appointment?
If they have a smart phone registered with their GP they'll be able to book both appts. through a link embedded in a text. If not, they'll get a phone call to invite them
Also if you took an elderly person did you/they have to fill in a form (as a permission) during the pandemic?
You shouldn't need to fill any form if you're just taking them to be vaccinated, and you should be able to help them with the admin process should they need.
Any other info about taking the person safely if they or you have been sheilding would be welcome. Thanks.
If they've been shielding successfully, it may be more sensible to wait till the DN team can come and give them the AZ vaccine at home. You should have that conversation with their GP
Hope that helps
nickc - thank you.
Testing is not normally done completely at random. The false positive rate when confounded with a sample selected due to symptomatology will be much lower. Whats the rate for someone with a persistent cough and temperature, for example?
How do you prove a false positive? Or a false negative for that matter?
How do you prove a false positive? Or a false negative for that matter?
Sensitivity and specificity for test any approval is normally done on stock samples spiked with known viral contamination (or not, obvs). Those quoted percentages will be from in vitro testing not patient samples. Hence the bias is so much reduced by sampling from someone with symptoms. One can use test samples from healthy and diseased patients with other confirmation methods too, for blood sampling in lateral flow tests based on PCR positivity, for example.
The roads near me are as busy as a normal day. I read also that some schools have 50% to 70% attendance because all parents are claiming to be key workers.
^^ hardly surprising seeing as last March more businesses just shut down, but this time, everyone has adjusted and food places/non essential shops are doing click and collect
the list covers a vast amount of jobs, what's left?
our local primary, have adjusted already, from only having 35 places 2 days ago due to limited tech they have essentially said in order to have safe consistent bubbles if your kids has to attend any day, they would prefer to have them in all 5 days,
We are opening up more places to Critical worker children, and because of the large numbers involved, we have decided that to try to keep everyone in school safe we need to have consistent bubbles. We think the safest way of doing this is to ask that all children attend school 5 days a week starting from Monday 11th January.
https://twitter.com/gnomeicide/status/1347240927753080832?s=19
This is profoundly worrying and depressing.
Sensitivity and specificity for test any approval is normally done on stock samples spiked with known viral contamination (or not, obvs).
Somewhat obviously! Thanks.
I have a question for the covid genius’s amongst us.
My son (4) had an outbreak of covid at his nursery and had to isolate. A few days he became symptomatic and tested positive.
We all isolated at home but neither my wife or I took any precautions to stop catching it from him as he was quite upset and needed lots of cuddles etc.
Neither my wife or I caught the virus (no symptoms and were tested twice. How is that possible?
The outbreak at the nursery was quite large and other children seemed to pass it to their parents making them sick in turn. According to the nursery / health board it was the “new” strain which makes it even more confusing that I didn’t catch it.
What tests did you have?
Perhaps you had it before him.
Neither my wife or I caught the virus (no symptoms and were tested twice. How is that possible?
Household attack rate is about 0.33 (range 0.25 to 0.5), so probability of not catching it is 0.67 per person. Never catch it (2 people) is 0.67^2, at least one catch it is 1 - 0.67^2 = 0.55 or 55%. Pretty much a coin toss that at least one will catch it.
The attack rate from a 4yo might be on the low end, reducing the chances further.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coupon_collector%27s_problem
^^ hardly surprising seeing as last March more businesses just shut down, but this time, everyone has adjusted and food places/non essential shops are doing click and collect
the list covers a vast amount of jobs, what’s left?
Over a long enough period of time, almost everything becomes an essential.
(Purely leisure activity providers excepted).
I’m overworked currently as it seems the industry’s natural amount of work is catching up with that 3 months last year where they didn’t do anything
Is this guy really a senior part of the NHS? Honestly what a car crash and it gets worse as the interview progresses.
It is very worrying that there are people in charge who cannot seemingly answer a straight question. Is it any wonder that conspiracy theories have taken hold in the absence of apparent honesty and credibility from the top?
Neither my wife or I caught the virus (no symptoms and were tested twice. How is that possible?
Not everyone is susceptible to it just like other viruses of course gives you the maths. You may have also been the carrier and passed it on to your son but then as your body beat it the tests showed negative. Also which tests did you have in order to get tested twice but without symptoms?
Neither my wife or I caught the virus (no symptoms and were tested twice. How is that possible?
My 14yr old niece tested positive after being notified of close contact to another pupil who had it at her school and had to isolate at home. She had symptoms of losing taste & smell for one day, nothing else. Neither my brother(53) nor my sister inlaw(50) made an effort to stay clear of her and neither of them caught it.
Is it any wonder that conspiracy theories have taken hold in the absence of apparent honesty and credibility from
the topJulia Hartley Brewer?
FTFY
JHB, as usual, uses a highly misleading stat - A&E attendances - which is literally people walking through the door of their local hospital saying help me, I'm I'll. People have been explicitly told not to do this with Covid, as they want to keep the A&E pathway clear of Covid for other illness/injury. Potential Covid patients are triaged via 111 and 999 and directly admitted where appropriate.
Are you seriously suggesting that hospitals in the SE are not on the point of being overwhelmed? The thread I linked to in the post above yours visualises data directly from the NHS.
Is this guy really a senior part of the NHS? Honestly what a car crash and it gets worse as the interview progresses.
We must have been watching a different interview. The couple of minutes I could bear to watch was a guy taking Hate-filled Spewer to task for telling lies.
Not everyone is susceptible to it just like other viruses of course gives you the maths.
Does this suggest that like almost all viruses, there are a significant % of the population who are always going to be immune to something new. I'm guessing this is how our population has survived many 100's of pandemics throughout history before the advent of modern medicine.
We know that the IFR from Covid varies by demographic and location and has been suggested to be anything from 0.1% to 1%. Let's pick the middle number, say around 0.5%. With 79,000 deaths in the UK from (or with a positive test for) Covid this suggests, based on the IFR that around 16 million people have so far been infected. That is 24% of the UK population.
Prior population immunity (the susceptible) has by many scientists been suggested at between 20% and 50%. Again let's pick the middle ground and assume that this is 35%.
So 24% and 35% males 59% which implies that we could right now be very close to the 60-70% threshold needed for herd immunity in any case.
With this in mind I wonder if the vaccine has arrived too late and whether it is even needed if herd immunity is imminent? That said, the WHO guidance seems to have been changed recently to suggest that herd immunity can now only come from vaccination, rather than from a prior infection as always used to be the case in the past. A bit like the masks situation, I wonder what has changed to over-write years of previous scientific consensus?
Someone better anointed than I will be along but surely if that was right then we wouldn't now be seeing an acceleration of cases despite preventative measures.
So 24% and 35% males 59% which implies that we could right now be very close to the 60-70% threshold needed for herd immunity in any case.
I'm sure the Gupta/Barrington musings are an elegantly-constructed hypothesis. But relies somewhat on cases and hospitalisations already starting to dry up. Do you see any sign of that, or is that where the A&E thing comes in, you're being given a marker which doesn't actually reflect Covid activity? Every other marker of Covid activity is still heading skywards.
With this in mind I wonder if the vaccine has arrived too late and whether it is even needed if herd immunity is imminent?
I saw an article from a study in Brazil (can't find the ref just now) that suggests that the infection rate was over 75%, so don't give up your place in the jab queue just yet.