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Yup, and infection rates in a lot of England far exceeds what we have.
Rome is burning, once more.
A very teary sister at Guy's just now wishes England would follow us in Scotland. It sounds like it's pretty desperate on the front line.....
Thanks for the info on vaccination percentages TiRed
TBH the difference in infection rates is mindboggling right now. According to the data.gov.uk page, the 7 day average to yesterday stands at:
Wales 469.4 per 100000
England 476.9
Northern Ireland 394.9
Scotland 188.3
I reckon if more Scottish people realised that, we'd have a lot more trouble with rulebreaking/new restrictions etc- Johnston'd be shouting it from the rooftops if the situation were reversed and probably telling you to get back to work.
Isn't a lot of the data quite a bit out of date now with the christmas and new year having just been?
Johnson is now booked for an 8pm announcement and parliament recalled for Wednesday. And I've found myself agreeing with Hunt (I feel dirty).
We're going into full lockdown again surely? About time too...
Johnson due at 8pm, sweepstake on how late he'll be?
Full lockdown I suspect.
Full fat lockdown from Wednesday I'd say. Think the furlough scheme will be getting used by us again. We finished 20% down on 2019. I'm really starting to fear for my job now.
Aye, full fat lockdown till end of Feb I reckon.
Likely end result is end of Feb. But they'll start with a shorter time period and then extend. This government likes to feel its way along... week by week, day by day...
stcolin... it's going to be a tough few months... but likely to end up quite a good year later on... keep your eyes up, past the winter... we can hope for better circumstances later in 2021
Yep, full lockdown from Wed until end of Jan to start with IMO.
Thankfully our school has seen sense and closed its doors from tomorrow.
sc-xc
Steve, apologies – I didn’t realise that the gov used adopted as an indicator of vulnerability. Our adoptions are managed by a regional agency, and whilst we provide a level of support i would agree with you that they are no more vulnerable than any other child.
All the other indicators I would agree with though – in particular children in care.
Apologies for missing that, it will teach me to read next time!
No need for you to apologise ... my actual point is that these things should actually be clear and relevant.
A bit of an aside for Covid but realising there are different adoptions but regardless I have to then think something is wrong if the agency is supporting an adoption that makes the child vulnerable.
But on the Covid track again ... this gross emotive hijacking shouldn't be affecting people's right to life. There are always those who believe the stuff they get told to believe .. not maliciously but due to a distorted personal experience.
I've got my own (distorted) personal experience as well and by a load of those criteria I and most of my friends growing up would be classed as "at risk". We were poor, didn't have permanent accommodation, my mum was in and out of hospital. The one thing that was most challenging and is common across that group was/is food... something that this government have made it very clear they wish to restrict to children going into schools. I find this perverse... to hold food up as a bribe to take a health risk for the family.
We hear this drone narrative of "what about the vulnerable children" as if every parent (obviously excepting those who are teachers or social workers) gets home and potentially beats their children within an inch of their lives.
We hear how the children will be scarred for life by missing a single day of school....
At the best of times this narrative is stupid and IMHO harmful... now we still have the "if your child misses a day their entire life will be wrecked", mixed with some expectation that parents are abusing their children .. claims of it affecting their mental health whilst not even acknowledging that being responsible for their grandparents death is hardly beneficial AND it's killing people and being used to deny food to kids that are in need.
We could "discuss" the rest of that list ... but that isn't the point.
(For example if a child is a carer then it shouldn't be a simple matter of them being "expected" if the person they care for is at high risk from Covid)
The real point is the misleading information playing to a narrative across the most unlikely of bedfellows.
On one hand people who actually care about kids but perhaps subscribe to extreme views...and on the other people who really don't give a monkeys about anyone who's education doesn't involve private schools. (Or in the case of Boris someone who thought it perfectly acceptable to infect his unborn child)
Yup, my money is on 'proper' lockdown as and remote learning (for kids). The govt will go on and on about how English 'exams will still be happening'... Then shelve them 20 minutes after the Scots do.
TBH the difference in infection rates is mindboggling right now.
That's one thing but relatively minor when you consider the growth rate and how big the differences will be in a week.
Half term ends 22nd Feb for my kids so guess that's likely to be the earliest timepoint for reversal of lockdown.
I really hope house moves aren't banned, from a purely selfish perspective.
I don't think he will do a full lockdown yet. Just put everyone into tier 4 with yr11 and yr13 going in for face to face.
Stop people going to the supermarkets in multiples, where possible, would make sense. I saw families shopping yesterday and it just made no sense for the whole family to be doing that - understand there are needs must scenarios.
I really hope house moves aren’t banned, from a purely selfish perspective.
The Scottish rules allow house moves, so we probably will.
The govt will go on and on about how English ‘exams will still be happening’… Then shelve them 20 minutes after the Scots do.
Scotland cancelled them on 8th Dec......
Stop people going to the supermarkets in multiples, where possible, would make sense.
I haven't seen a single case of multiple adults going into shops around here. Is that very different elsewhere then?
The Scottish rules allow house moves, so we probably will.
Thanks. I hope so. I know it's selfish. But we've been trying to move to this house since the start of August now and financial commitments have been made... first world problems i know.
I actually think the word "lockdown" will really help. The tier system people are interpreting as less severe and so people are more relaxed. Part of this is that schools are open.
The wording of "lockdown" along with specifying people should go solo to shops (as mentioned above), that hygiene is still important and that mixing, even outside, is a bad idea (I know we can debate that) and schools are closed will help.
They still need to be clear about who can go to work an who can't.
I haven’t seen a single case of multiple adults going into shops around here. Is that very different elsewhere then?
Yep, we regularly saw whole families in the supermarkets on a trip out over Christmas..
How well did the last lockdown work in Kent? I know that schools will make a difference, but there are too many people in the SE who really don’t care.
Yep, we regularly saw whole families in the supermarkets on a trip out over Christmas..
Same here, people are keeping distance and wearing masks, but there are lots of couples and families with kids. I know sometimes the latter can't be helped but when there are 2 parents and 2 kids you wonder why they can't wait in the car.
A personal highlight from the weekends Aldi trip was the slightly distressed voice of a mother calling "will you please, please stop licking the trolley" to her kid. I did have to chuckle.
UK COVID alert level being moved to level 5, which means “..a material risk of healthcare being overwhelmed”
I haven’t seen a single case of multiple adults going into shops around here. Is that very different elsewhere then?
Family groups in super markets, mixed household groups in the same car, both seem fairly common. Outside social distancing is a bit of an iffy one from what I've seen but everything seems to be pointing to it not being a major source of transmission. I am struggling a bit with why people drive into the area and then doing their shopping as well as go for a walk.
UK COVID alert level being moved to level 5, which means “..a material risk of healthcare being overwhelmed”
Where is this from?
My girlfriend went to the Trafford Centre just after Christmas to return a faulty item she could only do in the shop. Got out of her car and a car pulls up beside her. Fella asks, "Where is the main entrance? We've come from Newcastle and never been before"
I haven’t seen a single case of multiple adults going into shops around here. Is that very different elsewhere then?
Very common. Her - face shield, him - mask not covering nose, both - tracksuits.
Reported by BBC correspondent, posted on The Guardian feed.
@airvent - reported in Guardian - one level higher than the spring lockdown alert level
@lunge - I agree; I think the semantics matter. I also hope that the recent news articles about how hard things are in hospitals will make people cautious through fear. It seems like self-interest is the only motivator for many.
Wales has effectivly been locked down for a while and number are starting to fall by the looks of things; however compliance seems to be a lot lower than before and I think that some of it comes down to not being 'locked down'
Blimey. Then yes, new measures/instructions need to be clear as regards keeping numbers down in supermarkets then. As well as staying local, reducing number of trips, mask wearing, distancing... all the basics. I thought all this stuff was still going on everywhere. In my defence, this year has been very locale bubble reinforcing though.
How well did the last lockdown work in Kent? I know that schools will make a difference, but there are too many people in the SE who really don’t care
It didn't work and the vast majority of people were taking it seriously although the traffic levels were much higher.
The rates in north Kent started rising in October and didn't stop rising through the half term, lockdown, tire 3 and tire 4 and only seemed to level off over Christmas. I do not know what happened after Christmas though.
Levels are dropping slightly now. The whole SE has gone bonkers. I’m on the Kent/Sussex border and we went from verging on tier 1 to worst in country within 3 weeks.
I’m on the Kent/Sussex border and we went from verging on tier 1 to worst in country within 3 weeks.
Which is testament to the transmissibility of the new variant, I fear, rather than any particularly awful rule-breaking by the residents. And why the whole country needs to get shuttered ASAP.
If they've forced some schools to go in today, and then decide tonight it's too dangerous...
Sweepstakes - I reckon BJ turning up at 8.45pm for his 8pm appointment, with some clearly hastily thrown together slides, and at some point they will share the Zoom window by mistake.
Economy - I dunno about shielding my parents, seems there is a chance I might be moving back in with them
TBH the difference in infection rates is mindboggling right now. According to the <span class="skimlinks-unlinked">data.gov.uk</span> page, the 7 day average to yesterday stands at:
Wales 469.4 per 100000
England 476.9
Northern Ireland 394.9
Scotland 188.3
I believe London/SE is reckoned to be 4 weeks ahead of Scotland. Hopefully todays response from Holyrood will curtail the, still inevitable, increase a bit.
Wales 469.4 per 100000
England 476.9
Northern Ireland 394.9
Scotland 188.3
Population densities will be a factor to some degree, although what I've found from a quick google is not really fine enough detail. Wales has a lot of empty space as an example:
MartinH - we have had such low rates down here all year I definitely think complacency was rife in Sussex.
When Kent went into Tier 4, my publican friends reported plenty of “illegals” coming in and trying to blag it.
Hmmm, so I was wrong about late Tuesday
Sadly, it has become increasingly clear over the last week that case numbers are continuing to rise at an alarming rate both locally and nationally and that the NHS is struggling. We will continue to be open to all children of critical workers who need us but it is really important to note that if only one parent is a critical worker and there is an adult that is at home then this is the safest place for your child to be.
I wonder where this language comes from though... after all it was obvious to anyone that case numbers were rising dramatically in school the end of last term but the message was that school was safer. I wonder of this is standard text the schools are told to use??
I'm also wondering what the point is of
the safest place for your child to be.
.. how can they possibly say that without a detailed medical history for each child?
As far as I can work out for the overwhelming majority of the children the COVID risk is and always has been miniscule and the COVID risk was not about children but parents, carers, teachers and the general population.
Total cluster xxxx but still not very last thing Tuesday.
Meanwhile OH is on a zoom call for her school... doesn't seem like the Deputy Head knew this in advance.
Now I guess we wait and I'll see if my hospital appointment for tomorrow at 10am is cancelled.
Stop people going to the supermarkets in multiples, where possible, would make sense. I saw families shopping yesterday and it just made no sense for the whole family to be doing that – understand there are needs must scenarios.
You got data on supermarket transmissions? My partner and I pretty much always go together often on the now standard covid lockdown walk. Surly you are not in-contact with people long enough for the risk to be that big? My only rational for this is I always use the nhs tracker app and haven't been trace tracked yet. Although sods low it happens in a few days after going this evenoing.
Had a look at Statista, and the UK has more COVID deaths per capita than the yanks, even with Donald Trump.
That's special.
As usual looks like bozo already briefed Peston on the new restrictions....
Everywhere tier 4
Schools closed
No outdoor team sports
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1346110314224340993?s=20
From the FT ( https://www.ft.com/content/f1550dbb-e36f-43be-a537-306ccfdaffca):
Several Whitehall officials told the Financial Times that the Cabinet agreed on Monday afternoon that primary and secondary schools would probably close until the mid-February half-term break, reflecting the seriousness of the situation.
Schools maybe closed but I'll be in one tomorrow!, With loads of kids.
I really hope house moves aren’t banned, from a purely selfish perspective.
In laws due to be moving into a sheltered accommodation in 3 weeks - both in their 80s, one late stage cancer, the other early dementia. This really needs to happen, even if they have to isolate for 14 days afterwards
Well, I suppose if there isn't a press conference, he can't be late too it...
So, the lobbyists won until the forecast looked grim enough for Boris to defy his master's....
So all the kids have met for one day, swapped their infections they picked up over Christmas, given them to the teachers, and then taken them home...
I wish we had an able and competent government of any colour right now.
Can we install Hunt via some kind of coup… he’s in the party that won the last election… no democratic deficit… I don’t agree with him politically, and I doubt I’d agree with much of his decision making… but he sounds as if he would make decisions, rather than can kick every issue down every road, ‘till a dead end forces his tired absent lazy hand. We need a full time PM.
Easiest. Prediction. In. History.
Leadership is about taking unpopular decisions and carrying the populace with clear explanation. That explanation was available from before Christmas. That the epidemic was growing in the South due to a more transmissible strain and Tier 4 may not be sufficient due to schools.
It's not actually THAT much more transmissible to be honest, but things have been balanced with R about unity so even a modest increase is enough to set things off again.
lockdown today, next week bask in the glory of falling infection rates resulting from T4 implemented 2 weeks ago.
I second what TiRed said.
@kelvin and i would like to third what @TiRed said.
It's no surprise at all really. Where i am (Surrey), people seem to have given up completely on any social distancing. Our village was like Glasto over Christmas and New Year, teeming with people... It's really frustrating, how will it ever get better?
falling infection rates resulting from T4 implemented 2 weeks ago.
Doubt it. The amount of areas moving up a Tier and SE showing no sign of Tier 4 improvement I think it will take a lot longer to reduce.
Can we install Hunt via some kind of coup… he’s in the party that won the last election… no democratic deficit… I don’t agree with him politically, and I doubt I’d agree with much of his decision making… but he sounds as if he would make decisions, rather than can kick every issue down every road, ‘till a dead end forces his tired absent lazy hand. We need a full time PM.
Totally agree. He's at least talking like someone with a confident plan and crucially putting health before the 'market'.
Boris is terrified of making unpopular decisions and seems to always do things reluctantly. We need confident decisions, people would respect that.
Maybe apart from Julia Hartley Spewers vile mob.
Starmer sounded like a dithering tit on the radio earlier about schools. By God has he missed some opportunities.
One week for cases, two for admissions, three for deaths. The kink in deaths from the last one will show in the Week 51 mortality tomorrow.
so the hospital situation in the SE (today) is likely tied to T2/3 restrictions, just prior to the creation of T4 (if ive followed you) and likely to get worse for a little while yet...
the NHS guys i know are pretty fraught, anyone wanna drive an ambulance or stab folk with a needle?
We’ve been beyond Tier 4 and had schools closed in Wales for three weeks and it doesn’t seem to have gone down much🤷♂️
We’ve been beyond Tier 4 and had schools closed in Wales for three weeks and it doesn’t seem to have gone down much🤷♂️
Yep, plenty of non-conformance to the rules too with forest car parks full, honeypots overwhelmed and loads of people from as far away as London.
The country generally is fed up with the constantly changing rules, poor leadership and promises of 'it'll be over by September/Christmas/New Year etc only to see figures rise ridiculously fast. When De Pfeffell announces the lockdown I strongly suspect that adherence this time will be far, far lower than the first one. The only way to get control back now is with army/police intervention to force people to stay at home. Boris has lost the country at the worst possible time.
it doesn’t seem to have gone down much
How much has it gone up?
Boris is terrified of making unpopular decisions and seems to always do things reluctantly. We need confident decisions, people would respect that.
There was an article in The Guardian about exactly that, it's probably been linked to on here or the Boris thread. Also covers the "leak it to the media, gauge the public response" thing that has been going on for years now. What's the point of him making an announcement at 8pm if it's already been tweeted by his tame mouthpieces 2hrs in advance?
Boris has lost the country at the worst possible time.
Wait until they see that the promised unicorns and sunlit uplands haven't arrived either!
So all the kids have met for one day, swapped their infections they picked up over Christmas, given them to the teachers, and then taken them home…
Actions like insisting schools open today, and then (likely) announcing they are closed doesn't help the governments credibility. Hopefully people will remember this when it comes to the polls. If the expected school 'closures' are announced, how much remaining credibility does Boris have left? Have to wonder if someone else needs to come in now?
Welsh restrictions started on 20th Dec, and I suspect that it's more like 3-4 weeks before the impact of restrictions really start to have an effect. Another blog I follow reckons hospital admissions follow positive tests with approx a 10d lag, and then 7d lag from admissions to deaths. Like 3 waves following each other, you can't stop the other 2 once the first one is on the way.
Couple that to Christmas mixing, and also possibly an increase in transmission due to the new variant and I think 'not gone down much' is pretty well to be expected.
Have to wonder if someone else needs to come in now?
Can we put Hunt in for 12 months as an emergency measure? The Conservative Party can select another clown once we have this pandemic under control.
Thanking you! That was worth a read. Appreciated.
Uptodateish hospital admissions…
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare
Worth looking at hospital occupancy while you’re there.
The other thing that I hope they are taking into account is the mix of the old and new strain on the numbers. You could have a situation where for example you have 50:50 old and new with R of 0.6 and 1.4 respectively and a net R of 1 e.g. fairly static numbers as the growth in one is cancelled by the decline in the other, but as the mix changes to favour of the more infectious strain the R and hence numbers start to get a whole lot worse.
Uptodateish hospital admissions…
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare
/blockquote>If you click into the data field it was last updated 22/12
Did schools in England go back today then? And if so they'll have been open for one day then shut again within 24 hrs? Is that correct?
If so I think it's fair to give the government a break on this one, I mean how could they have possible foreseen the need to close schools prior to today....
I'm sure you are all as shocked as I am..
🤔🤔
Schools will be open for key worker children. If allowed, our children go back tomorrow.
If you click into the data field it was last updated 22/12
More up-to-date data for England here:
https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
3k yesterday, quite a noticeable rise since the 25th.
Not sure a lockdown will work. Medway Kent was put into tier 4 and schools closed on the 20th Dec and the cases are now back up to 1058 per 100,000 for 25th to 31st dec according to the bbc.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51768274
It is 7-10 days for infections to become visible after a change I thought.
maybe we see the impact of the tier change and schools next week in the infection rate. I hope so anyway
most local schools seemed to be on an inset day today.
Kentishman - not enough gap from 20th to he 25th to expect to see any effect of the tightened restrictions and/or schools closing for christmas. same for crispo in S Wales and most of the southern end of the country
after school closures, short of the militarily enforced version of lockdown, not much else to be done, is there?
still amazes me that the continued strangulation of the economy, the increasingly obvious dire impact on the mental health of kids, teens, students, jobless, furloughed and essential workers is still being cheered on as a great thing by some. (im not saying there is a better choice..)
I'm not sure anyone is saying full lockdown is a good thing. Sadly it seems to be the only thing that will prevent deaths until the rollout of the vaccine.
Starmer sounded like a dithering tit on the radio earlier about schools. By God has he missed some opportunities.
When Hunt is making a better case than Starmer, we are truly through the looking glass.