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Yes, I’m aware that barely anyone has been vaccinated yet and I didn’t say that tradesmen should be in the highest priority groups. I DO think they should be a higher priority than people who are working at home/not working. Given that they are in and out of private houses all the time.
Thing is though, to do it by employment status involves both a massive amount of extra complexity and some contentious decisions. For example, a front line retail or hospitality worker is likely to come into contact with thousands more people than a warehouse operative or a chef. And even in your example, you could be a plumber working on new build with no contacts, or an emergency council plumber working in many different properties.
And along with that, I think once we're past Phase 1, we will be opening up fairly rapidly. This is totally selfish, but as mid 40's and with some underlying issues, I want to be able to take my daughter to some of the things she's missed out on in the last year. Not keen on doing that until I'm vaccinated, so I'm hoping that there isn't too much focus on careers, past stuff like teachers where they're obviously at much higher risk of contracting it.
Aye, trying to sort out people by their jobs would be a nightmare, and would probably serve to slow down vaccination rate.
And most trades wouldn't turn up anyway! 😂
So, regarding the "who gets the jab first"? issue. How were vaccinations for other diseases rolled out (e.g. smallpox)?
So should I take away from this discussion that there is no rationale whatsoever for the Tier 4 rule that you should only meet one person from another household outdoors while maintaining social distancing? And we might as well all crack on with getting up close and personal with as many people from different households as we like, because there’s no risk if you’re outside?
So should I take away from this discussion that there is no rationale whatsoever for the Tier 4 rule that you should only meet one person from another household outdoors while maintaining social distancing? And we might as well all crack on with getting up close and personal with as many people from different households as we like, because there’s no risk if you’re outside?
No it's not ok.
Unless your shooting or hunting or inside a school then it perfectly safe.
the first bit, yeah, the second bit, well
are you trying to apply logic to the rules/guidelines? that way madness lies
So should I take away from this discussion that there is no rationale whatsoever for the Tier 4 rule that you should only meet one person from another household outdoors while maintaining social distancing? And we might as well all crack on with getting up close and personal with as many people from different households as we like, because there’s no risk if you’re outside?
No, no-one has said that outside is no risk that I know of. But it's known to be lower risk than inside. And there's the knock on angle of people meeting outside then moving inside. There will be people bending/breaking the rules on a sliding scale, so if you get fewer meetings overall that's a win. T4 is currently the highest level of restriction, so it does make sense that all aspects would be stricter than T3 to give the best possible shot at minimising transmission.
t’s GOVERNMENT GUIDANCE being pushed down… there quite simply shouldn’t be a “too literal” reading or for that matter any alternative readings such as “expected”
'expected' is not the guidance from the DfE. I have that from a headteacher who is very on the button. Key worker's kids are welcome, not required. I also asked what would happen if somone decided to just keep their kids at home - 'nothing'.
If you want to keep your kids home do so. You won't have any ramifications.
How were vaccinations for other diseases rolled out (e.g. smallpox)?
Well, the bloke who invented it built a grass hut in his garden, called it the Temple of Vaccinia, and offered the vaccine to the poor. I believe there has been some scaling up since.
Slightly different disease and different situation. Took a worldwide effort, country by country, over decades.
So should I take away from this discussion that there is no rationale whatsoever for the Tier 4 rule that you should only meet one person from another household outdoors while maintaining social distancing?
And we might as well all crack on with getting up close and personal with as many people from different households as we like, because there’s no risk if you’re outside?
Logical fallacy...but one at once.
Rationale isn't scientific reason. (Sorry I'm nit picking again but ...)
On the one hand its a 1 person is better than 6 .. but so is 5 or 2 but why 6?
My uninformed view is 1 is "better" than 6 but not 6x better .. but then the rationale could be and almost certainly IMHO includes "it doesn't actually matter so long as we can make some different rules to show we are doing something"
More important IMHO is the "while maintaining social distancing" and how.
Again please don't be offended but you seem fine with a 2m distance so why not an arbitrary number of people. 30cm is better than 1cm... 50cm is even better and 100 even better... then at some point adding more distance starts to diminish.
As you said earlier weather, is it windy or not...mean some optimum distance is not a single optimum distance. As I mentioned .. cycling 2m behind someone at 10 mph is essentially breathing what they breath out... so I wouldn't think that's very safe for 1 hour. Passing someone by 1m in the opposite direction both doing 10 mph would seem much safer but then passing someoine in the opposite direction 3m apart would seem much safer again.
6 people ? Its absolutely safe from a COVID POV if non of them have the virus... the higher the chance they have the virus the less safe it is. In general the higher the tier the higher the chance one of them has the virus... except as far as I know there isn't an actual numerical definition for Tier 4. It's "very high" and always based on old data anyway.
So in my head I take the two axes... distance and number of infected people (as a decimal or per hundred thousand) on a XY scale and can ask .. what about 12 people all 5m apart? what about 3 people 1.5m apart? but ultimately it depends who the people are and what the point of the rule is.
Say its 6 people who have been working together all week in a closed room.
The risk of those 6 people meeting outside for a ride/walk or whatever after work Friday is not spreading the virus to each other. At this point they already probably did or didn't.
On the other hand 6 people meeting who wouldn't otherwise see each other is.
Except .. what if these were the spouses of the other 6 people?
then its about timing to an extent ...
Firstly lets say the 6 people in the room all week and their spouses meet all week for a socially distanced (or not) walk.
They are either going to get the virus or not from their spouse (assuming normal relationships/sleeping arrangements etc.)
The same thing gets said about kids walking home or parents collecting kids.
They have been locked in the enclosed rooms together all day... the kids either have it or not and whether the parents give it to each other at the gate or not is by the by as they will all bne exposed or not when the kids get home (assuming normal relationships/feeding arrangements etc.)
In the vast scheme of things does it matter which?
OR more succinctly what soobalias said.
And we might as well all crack on with getting up close and personal with as many people from different households as we like, because there’s no risk if you’re outside?
Lower risk. Not no risk. And some risking spread in such ways is in no way comparable to the opportunities for transmission in busy schools. I do feel for you and your doorstep problem and fears, but please look at the bigger picture.
Del
‘expected’ is not the guidance from the DfE.
That's good to know... but also illustrates the mess in guidance between departments or updating information.
I'm not disagreeing but this is the link sent from Jnr's school last communication.
They may well (and based on previous will) send a new letter very late Tuesday .. that will either say expected or not? Maybe they got told the information on the website will be changed by then ?
Jointly published by the Cabinet Office and Department for Education.
Last update 31 Dec and it still say's (I just refreshed) and its there now... for how much longer I don't know.
If you are a critical worker, or your child is vulnerable, we expect you to send them to school from the first day of term.
It's totally possible the head of Jnr's school has been told the same as your on the button head and just chosen not to share it with us parents?
I'm not entirely saying that is a bad thing... that is keep changing the advice is nearly as bad as not after a while or he's just doing what he's told.
In a way telling me doesn't change anything though.
OH has been told she will turn up Tuesday for the inset day at her primary ... so he might as well go to school until he gets sent home for us personally.
As a family we are resigned to getting the virus from one of the schools... the only difference is one of them will be spreading it in the other school.
I don't think that's great but at this stage (and quite possibly like Jnr's head) I kinda feel like trying to do the best you can not to spread the virus is an uphill battle.
At some point you just think sod it, it's not my problem I'll just do as I'm told then its not my fault.
As I said earlier I hope the worse case won't apply to me and I'll either not have bad or any symptoms or die quickly and not be struck with long tail COVID.
If I have no symptoms great... if I die c'est la vie (ou pas) but I have life insurance and a death in service bonus for the next 3 months. I'd not actually realised how much I'm worth dead until I had to check for my recent cancer scare. It also made me realise that I don't care half as much as I thought.
My feeling ... I'll have little or no symptoms... next most likely I'll die and least likely I'll have long tail and survive. I may be totally wrong but I'm past caring and don't want to know if I am.
Kelvin
I do feel for you and your doorstep problem and fears, but please look at the bigger picture.
True but sometimes I personally find it therapeutic to worry about trivia (As long as you realise it is trivial) when instead you have other real fears you can't do anything about.
This could be crap advice.. I'm not a counsellor but I do find it helped/helps me sometimes.
My best mate was asking about my recent scare all the way through and I kept saying "Dunno..didn't ask/research"... at the moment I'm more worried about the planning proposal or something...
He was saying "but this is more important".. and I said "I know that but I'd far worry about this trivial thing".
Any tallies I've seen suggest long Covid is much much more likely than death.
At some point you just think sod it, it’s not my problem I’ll just do as I’m told then its not my fault
Dude. Look after yourself and your family. If your partner doesn't have the support of their employer or Union just ring in sick. Keep your kids off school. If that's what you want to do. If you're saying goodbye to your loved ones through an iPad I'm pretty convinced that having followed the rules won't give anyone much comfort. F the rules.
There seems to be a growing realisation that were well and truly ****ed and this entire thing has been catastrophically mismanaged...
Rumours of more lockdown, possibly curfews (?), cases on the rise exponentially, hospitals already at breaking point...
This was near mine the other night: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-derbyshire-55523147
Most of those people had travelled there from one or two counties away so the Tier 4 STAY AT HOME message is clearly not working.
Shame we had to get rid of those water cannons, they'd have been very good against the crowd of anti-lockdown Covid deniers outside that hospital recently. Could have sprayed them all while shouting that the water wasn't wet, you just had to believe.
And most trades wouldn’t turn up anyway! 😂
There's a plan - put out a call for help - "my boiler's broken" or whatever - and vaccinate the folk who show up!
Lower risk. Not no risk. And some risking spread in such ways is in no way comparable to the opportunities for transmission in busy schools. I do feel for you and your doorstep problem and fears, but please look at the bigger picture.
Could you be any more patronising? Just because I voiced my concerns about lack of social distancing outdoors and asked whether it matters, does NOT mean I’m failing to look at the bigger picture!
I haven’t written reams of stuff on here about herd immunity, population risk factors, schools, vaccine development, government management of the pandemic, death rates, impact on other health conditions, etc, but that doesn’t mean I don’t know and think about them.
I’m a scientist, I have a PhD, and 20 years’ experience in clinical development of medicines. So find someone else to condescend to!!!
Apologies, I didn't mean to patronise you. Can we get back onto schools again, please?
Vicky Pea - I am completely with you on everything you said.
We live near a local beauty spot and the number of ignorant, inconsiderate, uncaring people we've come across over the Christmas period has been staggering. Many of them taking Granny and Grandpa out and other elderly folk.
We've had to stop mtbing for months and only started night riding a few weeks ago for safety (as I'm over 60).
Then we thought oh we're in tier 4 now we can go out riding again as there won't be many people around, that was not the case.
People are walking filling up country lanes, across bridleways and making no effort to walk in single file. I have actually had to ask people to move over when I'm walking as I couldn't move any further across the edge of a wide path, when several of them are in the centre.
Yes of course it's safer to be outside, passing quickly, however many of these people are shouting for their dogs or children, laughing with their friends/family/others. We're passing while breathing heavily and I can only move my mtb over so far when ascending a steep track.
As for the NIMBY comments that Vicky has got, silly use of NIMBY imo.
Love the water canon idea.
I'm guessing that many of these people breaking the tier 4 rules were outside in the summer clapping for their local doctors, nurses and other nhs and care workers. They need to see what's really going on and stop thinking how inconvenient this has been for their very important lives.
Transmission is a product of contact rate times probability of transfer times probability person can be infected. Sum those over all contacts, indoor and outdoor. Lots of outdoor contacts but lower chance of transfer due to ventilation. Fewer indoor contacts with higher chance of transfer.
Some balance is needed. Meeting NO others was deemed to be too socially prescriptive, hence first a single person bubble, and then meeting one other person outside, linking two households. If the unit of infection is thought of as a household (it’s a simplification), then this is a relaxation, but is it a big one? Meeting five others from different households? Links together a lot more groups. Five others in the same family? Less risk but will that be the norm?
So meeting one other is a trade-off. Separation is also a trade off; 2m or 1m? It’s not science as I do it, but behavioural science, and it does have some thought put into it. Whether the impact can be tested to the precision I test drugs is very unlikely. See the Danish study on masks. Well intentioned, but modest effect. Not zero effect btw, just underpowered to estimate with confidence.
And where are those high contact rates indoors taking place at the moment? I’d be avoiding public transport, especially if vulnerable or likely to contact someone vulnerable. Schools? By definition they are the de facto exemplar. Even a 20% reduction per contact in spread is important for a lot of contacts. I’m surprised masks are not used more widely in secondary schools. But demonstrating their effectiveness with absolute rigour is much more challenging.
[tl:dr] policy is a balance of evidence and pragmatism. It’s hard to show absolute effectiveness of most interventions, except on a population scale. That doesn’t mean they don’t have an effect. Just don’t expect miracles.
People are walking filling up country lanes, across bridleways and making no effort to walk in single file.
But they are outdoors... we are telling people not to mix... and they shouldn't be... and then telling them to send their kids into a packed school every day... to then come home every evening. We need to stop finger pointing and stop transmission. We need the minimum number of children and staff physically together in classrooms... right now.
As for the NIMBY comments that Vicky has got, silly use of NIMBY imo.
And I said we can all be guilty of it. I have been. In this thread. Many times. Whenever indoor restrictions kick in, we get loads of people driving to where we live, to go for a walk. During the spring lockdown, I found myself complaining that the lanes were blocked by cars, and you couldn't use the footpaths without passing a constant stream of people. In hindsight, I was just complaining about people travelling to do exactly what I was lucky enough to be able to do from my doorstep.
We live near a local beauty spot and the number of ignorant, inconsiderate, uncaring people we’ve come across over the Christmas period has been staggering. Many of them taking Granny and Grandpa out and other elderly folk.
We’ve had to stop mtbing for months and only started night riding a few weeks ago for safety (as I’m over 60).
Then we thought oh we’re in tier 4 now we can go out riding again as there won’t be many people around, that was not the case.
People are walking filling up country lanes, across bridleways and making no effort to walk in single file. I have actually had to ask people to move over when I’m walking as I couldn’t move any further across the edge of a wide path, when several of them are in the centre.Yes of course it’s safer to be outside, passing quickly, however many of these people are shouting for their dogs or children, laughing with their friends/family/others. We’re passing while breathing heavily and I can only move my mtb over so far when ascending a steep track.
+1
In isolation, each of these incidents may not be a massive risk factor for people they meet, but it is symptomatic of a wider decline in how seriously people are taking the issue compared to March/April of last year. Backsliding in what is a relatively low-risk activity probably means people are getting more casual about indoor mixing, public transport and car sharing, distancing in shops, personal hygiene etc.
We live near a local beauty spot and the number of ignorant, inconsiderate, uncaring people we’ve come across over the Christmas period has been staggering. Many of them taking Granny and Grandpa out and other elderly folk.
Or what they could do is entertain granny and grandpa indoors at home, would that suit you better so you have your outdoor spot all to yourself?
Yes of course it’s safer to be outside, passing quickly, however many of these people are shouting for their dogs or children, laughing with their friends/family/others. We’re passing while breathing heavily and I can only move my mtb over so far when ascending a steep track.
You're over thinking it, was there an uplift in cases following the packed black lives matter protests across the country all shouting out for equality?
It's been said time and time again being outdoors is the absolute safest place to be, so to get angry about people being outside is absurd.
You'd be even more angry if everyone mixed inside and the rates just sky rocketed up to the 100ks+ per day.
Popular spots will be popular. Shops are closed, so the nation’s other favourite pastime is out of bounds. Most people think the same way and will head to the same spots.
Long Walk in Windsor yesterday. Not a long lens. Passing people at 2m is a little challenging but people do tend to keep their distance.
It’s not just about further restrictions…
Many folk have given up on the hygiene aspect. For instance, I see fewer folk using the disinfecting point at the supermarket.
Also folk going shopping as a family/couple when it should be one person per trolley.
Not always maintaining social distancing.
Some reminders and further enforcement of these things will help.
On top of that folk are still travelling around the country. Many second/holiday homes here are occupied by folk outside of the region.
We need to stop finger pointing
We really do.
I've said this before, but the government (and the press) is desperately trying to move the blame to the populous and away from Johnson and his band of men.
Whilst I don’t doubt there are plenty of Covidiots who are not following the rules, the fault for the current state of affairs should not be shifted to them. Any policy has to assume some non-compliance so those people are to be expected.
Any blame should be held firmly at this indecisive, poorly led governments door.
It’s been said time and time again being outdoors is the absolute safest place to be, so to get angry about people being outside is absurd.
This is also bang on.
People have been under some kind of restrictions for a year, we're social animals and want to meet, that people are doing so outside is a good thing.
Or what they could do is entertain granny and grandpa indoors at home, would that suit you better so you have your outdoor spot all to yourself?
Oh, right, so instead you shove granny and grandpa into a tiny metal box with poor ventilation and several other people to drive them to the "outdoors".
Larry_lamb - unless you have been living in a cave, we are very close to vaccinating the granny and grandpa age groups. So I would neither take them out (as much I would love to) or see them in their own homes.
Of course people should be outside. But it's better for them and for myself being in a vulnerable group to just do what we are asked, especially in a TIER 4.
Its really not hard, or maybe I'm the one that's stupid.
Anyway I've followed this thread from the beginning and 'important info' has been all that matters, from people such as MartinHutch, TiRed, Graham 1980 etc.
We need to stop finger pointing
I agree with @lunge 's comment above about the blame game being played, the issue is that the public are making it far too easy to do that. They ARE ignoring Tier rules, they are driving across 2 or 3 counties to get to a popular beauty spot and then they are ignoring social distancing guidelines when there.
You get the knock-on effects that a % of them end up in high profile rescues by the police / mountain rescue (like the BBC article I linked to above) which ties up vast amounts of resources and increases the risk of transmission due to the increased contact and/or they cause problems for wherever they all pitch up.
The roads around Mam Tor / Winnats Pass have been absolutely solid with parked cars recently, every verge chewed to **** by the parking, road down to single carriageway in many places, litter dumped on the verges... That kind of makes it very easy to say "look at all these Covidiots".
Unfortunately, the Great British Common Sense is coming up against the Great British Sense of Entitlement and its losing badly.
Anyway I’ve followed this thread from the beginning and ‘important info’ has been all that matters, from people such as MartinHutch, TiRed, Graham 1980 etc.
Much as it pleases me to be in such esteemed company, you might want a quick edit of that one! 🙂
Can someone factcheck the following assertion from my mother inlaw:
"fit people are more at risk of dveloping long covid"
I'm assuming keeping age and lack of other health concerns constant.
And her definition of fit will be the frequent cyclist (regular metric centuries if road bike) or keen runner (multiple runs per week, occasional half marathon) not just the top level race-podiuming types.
. Passing people at 2m is a little challenging but people do tend to keep their distance.
Local country park trails were as busy as I have ever seen them yesterday, but almost entirely obvious family groups and all trying to keep a distance.
Does interest me on the comments about lack of compliance with masks and hand sanitizer in shops. Ilkeston has an "interesting" demographic and history, and plenty of issues with low level law breaking generally, but behaviour in supermarkets and ships in the town has been pretty exemplary from what I've seen, certainly better than I expected.
Agree we need to be careful of finger pointing and falling into the government's blame game, but people need to make sure they don't give the government the chance to use it
I'm praying house moves arent banned under Tier 5; we're supposed to be moving at the end of the month and we've been waiting now since August.
the issue is that the public are making it far too easy to do that. They ARE ignoring Tier rules, they are driving across 2 or 3 counties to get to a popular beauty spot and then they are ignoring social distancing guidelines when there.
Some are, but the vast majority aren't.
The vast majority are staying local, maybe meeting people in the local park.
Yes, some are travelling, but if you've taken every other form of past time away from them (no shops, no hospitality, no gyms, no meeting inside) then what do you expect?
I accept that a picture in the paper of a rammed full car park is not great, but we need to be better than that and not rise to the bait. Even a full car park is still a tiny minority of people.
“fit people are more at risk of dveloping long covid”
With regards to fitness and Long Covid, I am unaware of prospective or even epidemiological case-control studies. However one hypothesis could be that exercise changes ACE2 expression. ACE2 is the entry point for the virus, hence viral entry may be exacerbated in subjects who exercise regularly. Maybe.
This study showed an increase in circulating ACE2 expression in healthy subjects given an exercise regime. Summary https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/oby.23041
Anecdotally, I was race fit, riding 250-400 km/week (seldom less than metric centuries) and have had it. I know there are others too, but the fittest will notice the most significant decline and might be subject to ascertainment bias (it's a good story after all - I was THIS fit and now I'm not!). N = 1 trials are hypothesis generators, so will be interesting to see.
Unfortunately, the Great British Common Sense is coming up against the Great British Sense of Entitlement and its losing badly.
Outstanding work. 🙂 Not to finger-point but the restrictions seem far less closely-followed round here than they have been - under first lockdown, it was like a ghost town round here. We're tier four and, other than the school opposite being closed, traffic is absolutely no different to any other pre-Covid day. I think the blame lies with the government - the different tiers and restrictions are just way too fluffy, and they're still pushing this "it's all under control" narrative, so no wonder people are going "great! Back to normal, then."
Yea, sadly here where I am is the same. Made it out for a short walk yesterday and the roads were very busy. We have 2 local water parks very close to us and the numbers of people was crazy. I try not to worry too much about people exercising outdoors, I just keep my head down and try to enjoy the fresh (very) air.
I believe the Ox/AZ vaccine started this morning?
Can I ask ( sorry I have not read every post and don't know if its been answered) Is this feeling of "cold all the time" which i and a couple of others have had a sign of covid infection / mild long covid or co incidental?
Long Walk in Windsor yesterday. Not a long lens. Passing people at 2m is a little challenging but people do tend to keep their distance.
That picture sums up human behaviour. Its quite easy to keep 2m apart - I can see a 20m wide area on each side of the path. Its just that people want to walk on the nice bit in the middle, in a line 4 people wide, and won't get their shoes dirty.
Its the selfish 'I'm OK' culture that seems to be increasingly prevalent.
Are there any trials planned to run in parallel with the "second dose 12 weeks later" rollout to see if it works? Or will we be able to determine whether the strategy is working just from observation i.e. correlating dose date with later cases?
sorry I am going to repeat this post as it looks like getting lost at the bottom of the previous page
Can I ask ( sorry I have not read every post and don’t know if its been answered) Is this feeling of “cold all the time” which i and a couple of others have had a sign of covid infection / mild long covid or co incidental?
I believe the Ox/AZ vaccine started this morning?
Yes dosing has started. It will be a long trek to 2M doses per week. One thing I am sure of; Pharma is very good at delivery to plan (I seem to spend more hours in meetings on timelines than I do science). So AZ will know how many vials they can deliver over what time. Whether they can be administered is another matter. We'll probably run out of needles before vaccine doses (maybe).
“cold all the time”
Rigors and chills are a symptom of cytokine activation from your immune system - and I certainly felt chilled during the infection (never had a temp). I suffer from mild Reynaulds, but can't say I've felt any colder over the past few months - but then I have lower body fat than the rest of the family TiRed!
it may be a minority (definitely a significant number though... everyone knows people who are bending/breaking restrictions, all online groups etc are full of people moaning about others or even admitting it themselves) but given how contagious the virus is, it's obviously enough that things are moving in the wrong direction. Yes the govt has ****ed everything up since the start, but also you cannot say that enough people are doing their bit to stop the spread.Some are, but the vast majority aren’t.
In hindsight I think much stricter enforcement/penalties for restriction breaking would've been a good idea, but I suppose there were never enough police resources or govt will to do that.
We’ll probably run out of needles before vaccine doses (maybe)
Really? Question(s) on that, can needles be recycled? And I don't mean washed out under the tap and reused. Also glass vials, I'm assuming it is a capacity issue?
Yes of course it’s safer to be outside, passing quickly, however many of these people are shouting for their dogs or children, laughing with their friends/family/others. We’re passing while breathing heavily and I can only move my mtb over so far when ascending a steep track.
So other people need to stay inside so you can whizz about on your bike safely?
And you complain about these same people shouting and laughing (assuming your concern is increased risk of virus particals) whilst at same time breathing heavily yourself??
If you want to go out side you'll just have to deal with fact you'll come across other people. Far better the meet outside than in.
Is this feeling of “cold all the time” which i and a couple of others have had a sign of covid infection / mild long covid or co incidental?
is this not just a symptom of living in edinburr? 🙂
Could you be any more patronising? Just because I voiced my concerns about lack of social distancing outdoors and asked whether it matters, does NOT mean I’m failing to look at the bigger picture!
I don't think it's at all patronising ... perhaps instead it might say "put it in context of YOUR bigger picture" but that's splitting hairs.
Risk doesn't change because you choose to take it. It can change how you choose to manage it.
Some people on your doorstep are presenting an incredibly low risk if you even take some basic risk management. Something that with your background should be dead simple. Whether you FEEL you should or should not have to do something do9esn't change the actual risk, just your perception.
A simple sign on your door saying you are isolating please do not stand in my doorway" would be one mitigation.
Going into a school EVERDAY (weekday) is incredibly high risk assessed over a length of time such as a term. It's your choice to make but if you wish to disregard the actual scientific e3vidence to do so then acknowledge that to yourself.
In broad terms the doorstep is in the same sort of risk as a serious accident driving, cycling or walking to school or even next door having a gas explosion, the things that are ever present but we don't worry about. School and public transport is as high as it gets for Covid infection risk but even in your age/gender group the risk of the consequences being life changing is only moderate.
Feel free to feel aggrieved about people using your step.. it is your step but compared to risks you choose to take it's negligible.
You seem to be looking for science as you and I know it but the far better and succinctly explained post from TiReD...
It’s not science as I do it, but behavioural science, and it does have some thought put into it. Whether the impact can be tested to the precision I test drugs is very unlikely.
All that said
And where are those high contact rates indoors taking place at the moment? I’d be avoiding public transport, especially if vulnerable or likely to contact someone vulnerable. Schools? By definition they are the de facto exemplar.
tpbiker - I do not and never have expected people to move over for me when I'm on my mtb because 'I'm special as an mtber'. In fact I've got off the bike many times to make space for others on narrow sections.
However if one is ascending a steep section of trail and the particular trail is WIDE, then yes, I do feel that the other person can move from the centre, especially when they are walking. But of course I thought that before covid, it's good manners.
If you read my previous post, I wrongly thought the trails wouldn't be as busy as they were being in the a tier 4, also I have stayed away from them to be safe for others and myself.
If I came across as being an entitled mtbiker and a 'get off my trails type', then I certainly didn't mean to.
So the testing by schools
Test kids on return and staff.
After that staff tested regularly, kids only if a close contact of a confirmed case and those close contacts can stay in school. So the most unreliable test is to be performed by school kids on themselves and then they stay in school if negative.
Thats worse than the previous regime of sending close contacts home, it seems more unsafe to me.
stevextc
Free Member
sc-xcEdit. You do know that ‘adopted’ doesn’t mean ‘looked after child’ don’t you?
That wasn’t my choice of term….
I’m asking WHY the blanket term “Adopted” makers a difference in COVID becase that is what tyhe government website defines as a vulnerable child.
Steve, apologies - I didn't realise that the gov used adopted as an indicator of vulnerability. Our adoptions are managed by a regional agency, and whilst we provide a level of support i would agree with you that they are no more vulnerable than any other child.
All the other indicators I would agree with though - in particular children in care.
Apologies for missing that, it will teach me to read next time!
Just been sent the below by a relatively sharp minded person, it read fairly logically to my very uneducated brain, but I know I may have missed a lot. Can anyone better placed than me give a more educated view?
https://drmalcolmkendrick.org/2020/12/30/what-is-left-to-say/
Where are we at with vaccine resistance of the South Africa variant?
it read fairly logically to my very uneducated brain
From that link...
what we are seeing at present does not differ greatly from previous years
I'll pass. Thanks.
@lunge it is a pretty reasoned debate, and one with which I have considerable sympathy. Basically not enough is known about the disease, so appeal to analysis of overall deaths and excess mortality (which I have done since April). There is one point which needs addressing, and the author falls short:
Two things stand out. First, there was an obvious ‘COVID19 spike’. Second, what we are seeing at present does not differ greatly from previous years. The normal winter spike in deaths.
What we are seeing differs greatly from previuos years. The "normal" winter spike is nothing of the sort. Why? Because in no previous winter have we had the control measures in place that we have at the moment. What the author should state is "Against a background of very high contact restriction, up to and including closing schools, shops, leisure, working from home, furlough, massive online home delivery..., we see the normal winter spike".
Consider what the "normal" spike might look like in a few weeks. Ugly is my prediction. Think about the spike with NO intervention. It is now relatively simple to spot the effect of the lockdown on cases and hospital admissions. Soon it will show on deaths.
Whilst unpalatable socially and economically, lockdowns have the desired epidemiological effect of limiting spread. A more transmissible strain appears to require greater control measures to limit that spread. It's for politicians to decide policy, but soon those decisions will be taken out of their hands.
what we are seeing at present does not differ greatly from previous years
This is what concerned me. What is wrong with what's written?
Basically, what can I push back to my mate to tell him it's rubbish (assuming it is).
Edit, thanks Tired.
Kendrick is, to be very generous to him, a 'fringe' figure who aligns himself with contrarian, sceptic causes. The content of his sum-up on Covid was predictable from the outset.
I don't understand why there aren't just extra restrictions brought in today, why wait. I hate the half arsed "there will be further restrictions" speeches that you then have to wait a week to find out what they are. We are in a constant state of wondering what to prepare for next.
What we are seeing differs greatly from previuos years. The “normal” winter spike is nothing of the sort. Why? Because in no previous winter have we had the control measures in place that we have at the moment.
Well indeed - being subject tom and abiding by the various the measures in place I haven't caught Covid.. but this year I haven't been ill with anything, at all. I almost miss being ill.
I don’t understand why there aren’t just extra restrictions brought in today, why wait.
Boris "I've called a COBRA meeting after the weekend" Johnson?
I don’t understand why there aren’t just extra restrictions brought in today, why wait.
Watched the start of the news with my 17 year old, both of us demanding to know why, of restrictions will be needed in a few weeks, why we don't bring them in now, and maybe save a few thousand lives, while furlough is running anyway....
I again find myself in the uncomfortable position of agreeing with every single word Jeremy Hunt has uttered today.
Trying to reason out when this will be "over".
So, what percentage of people need to be vaccinated before we can stop all these lockdowns/tiers? Which I guess is a definition of "over"
How would that be figured out?
And if they are aiming for 2 million doses of the vaccine per week, does that mean 2 million people per week - or do they need both doses to be considered "vaccinated", so once people start getting the second doses, you're really only looking at 1 million people per week - as folk have to go in twice.
So, if we thought 50% of people needed to be vaccinated to get back to "normal", and we're looking at a million folk a week, plus the 12 weeks wait in between doses, with 66 million people that could be ~40-45 weeks down the line...
Question(s) on that, can needles be recycled?
No (may be exception for dentists). Not sure this will be the biggest issue, the number of needles and syringes made each year is mind-boggling (vets / diabetics / cosmetic surgery etc etc).
What we are seeing differs greatly from previuos years. The “normal” winter spike is nothing of the sort. Why? Because in no previous winter have we had the control measures in place that we have at the moment. What the author should state is “Against a background of very high contact restriction, up to and including closing schools, shops, leisure, working from home, furlough, massive online home delivery…, we see the normal winter spike”.
I'm inclined to agree. This is the issue that we are dealing with, when callers like the previous few (who may or may not be trolling / sealioning as well) present these facts but leave out a critical part of it. But we've become polarized, and followers of that path will not listen to that reasonable debate.
But on that issue you also get the "I'll pass thanks" and "The content of his sum-up on Covid was predictable from the outset" comments without actually addressing why the figures do look the same, and it's easy to see why we're then accused of drinking the Kool-aid
So, what percentage of people need to be vaccinated before we can stop all these lockdowns/tiers? Which I guess is a definition of “over”
How would that be figured out?
90% of serious illness and death occurs with the groups that are prioritised by the vaccination program: People with certain pre-existing conditions, health and care workers and the over 50s. Collectively they are 25% of the population.
So vaccinating those 25% takes us 90% of the way to 'over'
I’m inclined to agree. This is the issue that we are dealing with, when callers like the previous few (who may or may not be trolling / sealioning as well) present these facts but leave out a critical part of it. But we’ve become polarized, and followers of that path will not listen to that reasonable debate.
But on that issue you also get the “I’ll pass thanks” and “The content of his sum-up on Covid was predictable from the outset” comments without actually addressing why the figures do look the same, and it’s easy to see why we’re then accused of drinking the Kool-aid
Thanks, that all makes more sense.
Your second paragraph is spot on though. I know very little on this subject, like I suspect the majority of people. You can't expect people to learn if when they ask for a view they get those kind of comments.
Transmission is typically controlled once a proportion of contacts can no longer be infected (either because they have had it, or been protected from it by vaccine) that proportion is 1 - 1/R. R for the new strain is perhaps 4, so about 75%. If we assume 25% will have had the infection by the time vaccination has brought in some control (maybe), then that fraction is about 50%. For 66M people, 33M adults vaccinated, 1M a week (I'm a little pessimistic), then I think 3Q21 is realistic.
The Guardian are reporting that Scotland could go into full lockdown tonight. If they do how long before Wales and England (in that order) do too?
why, of restrictions will be needed in a few weeks, why we don’t bring them in now
It's to float the idea, assess the reaction to any tightened restrictions and when they are announced any dissention will be muted.
So vaccinating those 25% takes us 90% of the way to ‘over’
Probably needs TiReds input rather than mine, but I'm not so optimistic - that may be 90% of the way to reducing deaths to a more "acceptable" level. But it will have to go a lot further than 25% before transmission and risk of serious illness is reduced to what I'd consider a safe number.
I'm 51. Something like 25 million in the queue before I get vaccinated apparently (was on a website, might be wrong). That's less than half the population at that point.
And remember, once my 80 year old parents have had their vaccination - well, a month after their second dose, which is 4 months after a first dose they still haven't been offered - they might be able to hug their teenage grandchildren again because the vaccine suggests they shouldn't get as seriously ill if the kids pass it on to them.
That's how I see the scale of this, and the timeline to normal.
Edit - TiRed got there first
Probably needs TiReds input rather than mine, but I’m not so optimistic – that may be 90% of the way to reducing deaths to a more “acceptable” level. But it will have to go a lot further than 25% before transmission and risk of serious illness is reduced to what I’d consider a safe number.
I was keeping it simple really - the struggle we face, the point of restrictions, is not overwhelming heath services. It hasn't been about eradicating the virus. As soon as pressure on the health service has been relieved governments have let go of the brakes as much as possible and allowing as much 'normal' as they can.
Once those 25% have protection then the pressure of services will be relieved enough that quite a lot more 'normal 'can happen, even though theres still quite a lot of work to be done.
Scotland in full lockdown now until the end of January.
Looking at my empty fridge, shopping later might be quite something...
rj
also on beeb,
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-55531069
Mostly Boris has just followed Sturgeon by about a week since getting the top job.
Sounds the same as Tier 4 in England for the most part
A week seems to be about the timescale for it to be too late as to make any difference, so Boris should be on cue for next Monday then.
Let's remind ourselves of last time eh?
https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1341340265135665152?s=20
except no churches, school from home, work from home, shielding groups don't go in at all
Still prescient...
Sounds the same as Tier 4 in England for the most part
Schools in Scotland will be home learning only until February
Our genius of a PM is still insisting schools should be open in tier 4 areas. Apart from London, obviously. The Golden City on the Hill, being an independent nation-state, has its own rules
Schools in Scotland will be home learning only until February
Yup, and infection rates in a lot of England far exceeds what we have.
Rome is burning, once more.