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There are eight extra weeks of death in 2020 compared with the last ten-year mean. Five weeks compared to the highest in that period.
Ah ok Chrispo I understand now. I find it highly unlikely that will be correct. Covid is causing such unprecedented numbers of deaths across Wales that once the season is over and numbers totalled it will be significantly higher.
This is a helpful comparator from fullfact.
If this modelling is correct then surely the result is baked in at this point?
https://twitter.com/globalhlthtwit/status/1345140662056972292
The immediate mess that is coming is baked in now, yes… unavoidable… but crucially, what we do now will effect what comes on after that… we can ‘bake in’ an even worse future to follow, or we can we can try and avoid it. It’ll be very, very hard to do so, but we must.
Events will catch up with the UK population presently. The admissions are baked in from current cases. Deaths will follow. Sorry.
Lockdown 3 will be upon us soon. Schools will be closed. You don’t need sophisticated models to make projections about future hospital admissions and deaths. The new strain is a challenge, but with full lockdown, this strain can be controlled. Whether it causes greater morbidity and mortality cannot yet be ruled out. I have my suspicions but it is very early.
Vaccination can’t come soon enough. If only to prevent future serious disease.
Are there any good sites that compare countries on a similar basis e.g. hospitalisations per 100k? I'm finding it difficult to compare, for example, how the US is doing vs UK vs other parts of Europe
Actually managed to find a reasonable site this time (I think)
https://boogheta.github.io/coronavirus-countries
I'm going to back away from the news and figures for a few weeks. It's properly scary stuff for myself and mr_oab, and once again the press is starting to get all scary big headline.
I'm going to do my thing, avoid other people and try to keep positive. 👍
I see from a couple the papers headlines that blame is being nudged towards doctors for not agreeing to vaccine delivery changes, the impending schools U turn is being downplayed....
blame is being nudged towards doctors for not agreeing to vaccine delivery changes
The view from the front line is pretty miserable. So far our delivery date for the Pfizer vaccine has been pushed back 3 times, and it seems unlikely not to be pushed back again. Our agreed location to vaccinate our locality patients (a larger GP surgery) was rejected by our CCG because of the need for an area that we can use for patients who show an adverse reaction, and could be arranged to allow for social distancing (in the short the waiting area was too small) we found a Jain temple we can use, but we can't deliver 7 days a week for obvious reasons. All our plans for recalling pts have been scuppered because the 2nd dose timing changes, and we're having to use a different IT system that none of us are familiar with anyway. The lateral flow test kits we were promised haven't arrived, and staff are understandably keen to help but obviously want to protect themselves and pts. as well... And we still have to just run our GP practices in the middle of winter, when it's normally crazy busy anyway, and our staff get poorly...
Can you all just stay at home and not come out again 'til summer please?
Not really contributing but oh how I detest the phrase “Baked in”. As you were...
I’m going to back away from the news and figures for a few weeks. It’s properly scary stuff for myself and mr_oab, and once again the press is starting to get all scary big headline.
It's really important that you pay attention to the news as theres a lot of important information that isn't being communicated to us in other ways, you sound like a bit of a worrier going off past posts but try and look past the headlines themselves and keep paying attention to the important bits. I hate it as well at the best of times, its disgusting that the media are making so much money off the scaremongering.
Have we done the 'mix and match' amendment to the vaccination programme yet? Would be interested to hear from our professionals on this...
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/01/health/coronavirus-vaccines-britain.html
That’s not actually what has been said though...
These are the guidelines:
Previous incomplete vaccination
If the course is interrupted or delayed, it should be resumed using the same vaccine but the first dose should not be repeated. There is no evidence on the interchangeability of the COVID-19 vaccines although studies are underway. Therefore, every effort should be made to determine which vaccine the individual received and to complete with the same vaccine. For individuals who started the schedule and who attend for vaccination at a site where the same vaccine is not available, or if the first product received is unknown, it is reasonable to offer one dose of the locally available product to complete the schedule. This option is preferred if the individual is likely to be at immediate high risk or is considered unlikely to attend again. In these circumstances, as both the vaccines are based on the spike protein, it is likely the second dose will help to boost the response to the first dose. For this reason, until additional information becomes available, further doses would not then be required.
From the green book
https://www.cas.mhra.gov.uk/ViewandAcknowledgment/ViewAttachment.aspx?Attachment_id=103740
I’m going to back away from the news and figures for a few weeks. It’s properly scary stuff for myself and mr_oab, and once again the press is starting to get all scary big headline.
It’s really important that you pay attention to the news as theres a lot of important information that isn’t being communicated to us in other ways, you sound like a bit of a worrier going off past posts but try and look past the headlines themselves and keep paying attention to the important bits. I hate it as well at the best of times, its disgusting that the media are making so much money off the scaremongering.
I'm in a similar boat to you @matt_outandabout, the headlines are properly scaring me. More for the future of my parents and friends than me. But airvent makes a valid point that I've arrived at too. This government are useless at communicating with us directly, preferring media leaks and burying bad news so we all have to keep on top of it to get the information we need. The trick is to file the information into two piles: thigs you can influence, things you cannot. Read past the headlines then focus on what you can do to influence your personal safety, the basics like limiting travel, washing hands, wearing a mask etc. If you hide away from the news you may well miss out on something important. something that could make you and your family safer.
It is a tough time for everyone so fully understand why you want to switch off from it all right now but if everyone did this it would be a lot worse.
I've stopped looking at Covid related news on a daily basis. I don't really leave the house that much other than for my morning walk, and having a partner who is a nurse, so its not like I can control my exposure to Covid.
As a side note/ funny story, my mum got told by a support group for people that have gone through trasnplants (my dad had a liver transplant), that they're all doing very well, since they were already trained to being extremely anal with their hygiene and avoid big groups, due to the delicate post-op months.
but oh how I detest the phrase “Baked in”
Fair enough. “Sent on an immutable trajectory”. Very roughly 50k cases today is 2500 (5%) admissions in a week and 500 deaths a week later. I’ve used a slightly more complex regression of late but the principle is the same.
Hospital residency has increased as patient management has improved. Assume ten days. Those 2500 admitted per day is 25000 patients in hospital. It’s a rough calculation, but good enough.
...
oops sorry nothing to add
Sent on an immutable trajectory
I prefer 'baked in' to that. 🙁
Is immutable the opposite of "you're on mute"?
😋
I'm struggling to believe there can be any truth to this. Apparently Britain is changing the guidelines on the use of the vaccines and it will be permissible to exchange the second dose manufacturer? I would have thought there would have been clinical trials required for this? Have the government abandoned all scientific advice and just making their own rules up now to help hit vaccination targets? Early days and maybe the science will follow?
Sadly the government can do whatever they wish. They have assumed liability from the company. I have no idea what it means for “informed consent”.
I spend my day job designing trials to make claims on “The Label”. You cannot imagine the DAYS of debate that go into the wording of such legal documents that allow a company to make a claim. That’s days within a company and with regulators. What one can and can’t say about a medicinal product is very strictly governed and some of the highest fines ever paid were for breaking these laws in the past. Using medicines off label is permitted. Using them that way by first intent is, I think, unprecedented.
Pfizer could have applied for a license for a single dose based on their 21-day efficacy data. You can imagine how the FDA and EMA would have laughed that one out of court. HMG could conduct a clinical trial to test the hypothesis of no immediate loss of protection. That would be my course of action.
Btw immutable just means unable to be changed.
The trick is to file the information into two piles: thigs you can influence, things you cannot. Read past the headlines then focus on what you can do to influence your personal safety, the basics like limiting travel, washing hands, wearing a mask
Very sensible suggestion.
Just had a conversation with my parents (82 & 78) today that Monday will be the last time they do their big supermarket shop until they get vaccinated, and they'll have to change their shopping routine so I can do it for them on a Friday. I think they got the message.
Is immutable the opposite of “you’re on mute”?
Btw immutable just means unable to be changed.
Indeed. Related more to "mutate" than "mute".
Its like Woolworths pic n mix with the vaccine..
Leave it to this government to find a way to **** it up.
It seems the head bangers Gove/Sunak want to get restrictions lifted as early as late February.
Seems they want to achieve this by getting one dose into as many people as possible.
Meanwhile others are saying that herd immunity cannot be achieved until summer at the earliest.
Politically it seems the May elections are the target presumably under the catchy slogan Covid Got Done.
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/covid-rules-michael-gove-oxford-vaccine-b533414.html
To be fair, Gove doesn’t say anything as radical as lifting all restrictions. If he’s hinting about moving away from an effective national lockdown, back to full on site schooling and local restrictions again, I hope his timescales are correct.
Fair enough. “Sent on an immutable trajectory”. Very roughly 50k cases today is 2500 (5%) admissions in a week and 500 deaths a week later. I’ve used a slightly more complex regression of late but the principle is the same.
TiRed, your numbers are still a bit off.
We are currently (recently, since mid-Dec) getting 500 deaths per day, on the cases from 2-3 weeks prior to that which was more like 25k per day. So the current 50k+ will probably work out to be fair bit more than that, 1k deaths per day would be a likely figure IMO. Some uncertainty based largely on the age profile of victims of course. Maybe slightly more younger people infected recently (meaning lower death numbers) but I don't see us staying under 1k/day past mid-Jan unless there is a really abrupt and severe change of policy. Even then it's hard to see. As things stand we are looking at another 100k of deaths (ballpark) through the rest of winter.
If the govt was going to instruct the use of vaccines based on a hunch rather than the results of rigorous testing, why the f didn't we just start using them back in May?
What seems to be getting lost in the discussion about second vaccine dose timing...why tf are we waiting until Monday to start using the O/A vaccine?
The current rate of vaccination is hopelessly inadequate and will do little to stem the rising death rate over the next month. We need to be at the level of millions per week, not the current rate of one million per month.
The current rate of vaccination is hopelessly inadequate and will do little to stem the rising death rate over the next month. We need to be at the level of millions per week, not the current rate of one million per month.
Amen to that.
With lagged data, the number of positive swabs on the 29th has been revised to 74,500, even allowing for an up-tick in people getting tested after the holiday weekend that is worrying.
The current rate of vaccination is hopelessly inadequate and will do little to stem the rising death rate over the next month. We need to be at the level of millions per week, not the current rate of one million per month
The worthless Peston brought this up in his interview with “Johnson” and the obese scarecrow just dodged. Of course Peston did not press the question.
It's currently on a par with the TTI fiasco. A focus on headlines and soundbites to the exclusion of effective policy. We were the first!
Israel has vaccinated more than 10% of its population.
Admittedly we aren't doing worse in this respect than most other countries including those of the EU. But it's hopeless. I really thought that on the back of the excellent flu program, we would do this reasonably well.
While you are right that we need to vaccinate faster we are something like third in the world with 1.6% vaccinated.
It isn't where we need it to be but at least it is moving
We had a two week head start on most of them. Scaling up was always going to be the issue, not sticking some old dear for the cameras and Matty Hancock having a blub on the news. If they've managed to **** up the landing with a nine-month run-up, that's quite something.
At least the teaching unions are doing the right thing and bouncing the government into stopping the return to school. I feel we will owe them a massive debt of gratitude come March/April. My two certainly aren't going back.
f the govt was going to instruct the use of vaccines based on a hunch rather than the results of rigorous testing, why the f didn’t we just start using them back in May?
Back in May we didn't know whether the vaccines would give people two heads or not. At this point we know that they're perfectly safe, so they're taking a gamble on the effectiveness of the new dosing plan.
At least the teaching unions are doing the right thing and bouncing the government into stopping the return to school
They don’t have the power to do this… if they could do it, I for one would support them in doing so. Or are you referring to the U-turn as regards certain London boroughs?
...
Just reading messages from local heads… and would like to retract much of my last post as being premature. I don’t think we can now know who will be in school Monday ‘till tomorrow night.
I don’t think we can now know who will be in school Monday ‘till tomorrow night.
Both our kids schools have confirmed neither are in this week. Eldest currently due in on 11th for mocks, daughter home schooling till 18th. Strongly suspect both of those will be changed
My better half works in a private girls school, not boarding, they have said they wont test as they cannot do it safely. Makes you think.
Makes you think what?
sorry but I don't understand that comment
grahamt1980
As far as I can tell there is a difference between ‘expect’ children of critical workers to go to school and what you are reading as ‘must’ go to school.
Expect indicates that there is an assumption that those children will be in school but there is no real compulsion indicated by using that.
If they had put ‘must’ in there, then the reading would be much more definitive
Fair point ... though it then seems to just direct it into being yet another poorly worded and ambiguous communication.
Like the rest of the government response that puts it in one or more (mostly all of) of Too Late, Too Little or Too Vague.
It still seems to make little sense though.
Why should a kid who's adopted be "expected" in school 1st day of term vs one that isn't?
Not to mention the tricky situation of "why do I have to go to school?" and -"ah because Daddy/Mummy isn't actually your real mother/father even though we love you just like you are so the government classes you as "vulnerable".
I guess substitute that by "we are poor", "we don't have our own house" etc.
It seems wrong to me.
My better half works in a private girls school, not boarding, they have said they wont test as they cannot do it safely. Makes you think.
When I had my pre-op test I was really not able to not cough, splutter etc. and I felt very sorry for the nurse.
I have a bad gag reaction but then so will some of the girls at the school so I can understand the safety concerns.
Makes you think what?
sorry but I don’t understand that comment
They have less kids, more space and more staff but are not being held to account by the government they are held to account by fee payers.
Why should a kid who’s adopted be “expected” in school 1st day of term vs one that isn’t?
Looked after kids are much more likely to under achieve at school and so schools are prioritising there education.
Schoolboy SPAG error there a_a.
(Sorry - reflex action innit?)
Schoolboy SPAG error there a_a.
I R sceince teachest so dont giveca ****
😆
Was discussing the vaccine supply with my folks today. What I can't get my head round is that they have known for 9 months they needed a vaccine. They have known for 6 months pretty much what the vaccine was, and they've had a fairly good idea for 3 months what the dose had to be.
Why the hell didn't they take the gamble on massively ramping up production 3 months ago. Unless it has a limited shelf life surely it would have made sense to throw everything at the production process in Sep, if they had (they claim they can produce 2 million doses a week) they'd have nearly 25 million doses good to go on Monday, instead of 4. If they subsequently found out the vaccine didn't work we'd have wasted 100 million..chump change in the grand scheme of things.
The other thing I can't work out is why they aren't doing drive through vaccinations (for those with a car). Park in a bay, wind down the window, stick out your arm for a jab, then wait 15 min to ensure you don't have a bad reaction..and honk the horn if you do.
And rather than have some moron Tory mp in charge of this, they need a logistics expert, someone from the army probably..but id accept anyone with a hint of experience.
Definition of vulnerable for Steve to knock himself out with
Vulnerable children and young people include those who:
are assessed as being in need under section 17 of the Children Act 1989, including children and young
people who have a child in need plan, a child protection plan or who are a looked-after child
have an education, health and care (EHC) plan
have been identified as otherwise vulnerable by educational providers or local authorities (including
children’s social care services), and who could therefore benefit from continued full-time attendance.
From school newsletter
I R sceince teachest so dont giveca ****
Hey, I'm an Art teacher - it's a bloody miracle I spotted it in the first place...
They don’t have the power to do this… if they could do it, I for one would support them in doing so. Or are you referring to the U-turn as regards certain London boroughs?
If it looks like teachers and heads are walking out (they certainly have the power to do this, their safety at work is a valid reason), the government will shut down schooling and claim that was the plan all along.
Park in a bay, wind down the window, stick out your arm for a jab, then wait 15 min to ensure you don’t have a bad reaction..and honk the horn if you do.
One honk for 'I'm a bit wheezy', two honks for 'my throat's closing up', three honks for 'I've passed out'.
Hey, I’m an Art teacher – it’s a bloody miracle I spotted it in the first place…
Thank god neither ofvus are PE teachers!!! Mind you they cant read so wouldnt be here!!
If it looks like teachers and heads are walking out (they certainly have the power to do this, their safety at work is a valid reason), the government will shut down schooling and claim that was the plan all along.
No they will keep schools open and blame us
No they will keep schools open and blame us
How? Is there a secret vault of frozen supply teachers under Whitehall?
What I can’t get my head round is that they have known for 9 months they needed a vaccine. They have known for 6 months pretty much what the vaccine was, and they’ve had a fairly good idea for 3 months what the dose had to be.
Why the hell didn’t they take the gamble on massively ramping up production 3 months ago.
Couldn't agree more.
How? Is there a secret vault of frozen supply teachers under Whitehall?
Its not hard is it, they say schools stay open, teachers dont turn up and schools close it is therefore not .govs fault its the teachers not prioritising kids education like the lovely tories do.
By next week it'll be the teachers job to vaccinate as well, so that they can shift the blame for that **** up also
We should just shove the Senior Leadership Team from a school into Number 10 for a week. They'd sort everything out whilst still finding a way to provide a full academic program to the incumbents.
I R sceince teachest so dont giveca ****
Hey, I’m an Art teacher – it’s a bloody miracle I spotted it in the first place…
I just laughed so loud MrsMC came in to see what was so funny.
Why the hell didn’t they take the gamble on massively ramping up production 3 months ago.
I suspect that in terms of new vaccine production, this has been massively ramped up. Other diseases/vaccine needs haven't gone away while this pandemic is going on, remember
They did ramp up production, we just haven't got any of it, because we are run by incompetent windbags.
India have stockpiled 40 million doses of the Oxford/AZ vaccine.
How is that Vaccination centre of excellence we announced 8 months ago doing?
How is that Vaccination centre of excellence we announced 8 months ago doing?
It's waiting on the sunlit uplands at the end of the operation rimshot rainbow.
Drive thru mass vaccination centres will be happening depending where you live. 1-4 per car, stick your arm out type.
Considering there are a fixed number of vaccine production sites around the world they will not have prioritised this simply because it will have taken production space away from other known diseases that haven't gone away.
i. E. Mmr etc so you make a few extra million covid vaccines but cause a massive measles outbreak somewhere else.
Plus production schedules are normally booked out a long way in advance so due to this other stuff will be shifted now.
So basically why take a chance on something that might not work and end up having to bin millions of doses of something you can't use, when the time could have been spent making millions of doses you absolutely know works
tpbiker - my 87 yr old father in law in Kent had a drive through vaccination in a Taxi or so he told us.
Unless it has a limited shelf life surely it would have made sense to throw everything at the production process in Sep, if they had (they claim they can produce 2 million doses a week) they’d have nearly 25 million doses good to go on Monday, instead of 4.
How many doses can be administered per week?
Considering there are a fixed number of vaccine production sites around the world they will not have prioritised this simply because it will have taken production space away from other known diseases that haven’t gone away.
In 9 months I struggle to see how they couldn't have built a new facility for the specific purpose of producing this vaccine. In fact I thought this was the plan originally.
The fact that india have stockpiled 40m doses tells me we could probably have done similar if there had been enough of an effort put into production.
Have we been prepared for anything? Why would this be any different. Spaff money on private consultants and PR - we are world class at that!
The vaccines manufacturing Centre is nearly up and running.
the trouble is you need to get the equipment (which every other country is wanting too) which has to be manufactured to a very high level. This must then be installed in potentially a new building. The building has to be high spec too.
All of this then needs to be validated both in the absence of the vaccine and also but producing test batches as well.
All of this then needs to be approved.
If you are installing another line into an existing facility it is slightly easier as the building doesn't need to be commissioned or approved be the mhra.
To do that in 9 months would be more astonishing than a vaccine being designed and approved in a year.
Repurposing lines is easier as it would only need a level of validation (easy means probably at least a month or two off work.
All of this while under distancing and everyone in the world fighting for the same resources.
Sorry just don't see it
Edit - india has one of the biggest pharma industries in the world and 40 million isn't a lot if you consider as a proportion of population
And rather than have some moron Tory mp in charge of this, they need a logistics expert, someone from the army probably..but id accept anyone with a hint of experience.
This sums politics up full stop though. Very few of them are in a position to understand the ins and outs of the sectors they manage, for example Handcock has zero medical experience or Patel zero in a judicial / legal. They are all in their little parliament bubble with no clue what happens outside of it.
Politicians are supposed to be figureheads, working alongside actual experts. This lot believe they are cleverer than everyone else.
Graham - what you say all sounds very realistic. The problem we have is that Boris promised everybody the world and lies constantly about where we are at.
Shit getting serious in old London Town. I was hoping to have a (much less serious) op but I guess that’s out for a very long while. Luxury problem, I suppose.
There is no way I can disagree with that.
People voted in a charlatan who will say whatever the hell he likes and then blame his failure on everyone else.
On a positive note though, what has been achieved is astonishing and the vmic place that is being built will be valuable as another manufacturing centre within the uk.
Nice to know that the Oxford vaccine is being made in wrexham too
I know somebody designing the systems to repurpose an animal vaccine facility in the Netherlands, started back in the summer with a blank chequebook and a massively compressed timescale and told “just get it done” this for a vaccine that is yet to approved. (One of the bigger firms, not saying which)
Why the hell didn’t they take the gamble on massively ramping up production 3 months ago. Unless it has a limited shelf life surely it would have made sense to throw everything at the production process in Sep, if they had (they claim they can produce 2 million doses a week) they’d have nearly 25 million doses good to go on Monday, instead of 4. If they subsequently found out the vaccine didn’t work we’d have wasted 100 million..chump change in the grand scheme of things.
Because we didn’t have the manufacturing capacity to do 2 million doses in the Uk 9 months ago.
We’ve literally been building that capacity, including me.
I know somebody designing the systems to repurpose an animal vaccine facility in the Netherlands, started back in the summer with a blank chequebook and a massively compressed timescale and told “just get it done” this for a vaccine that is yet to approved. (One of the bigger firms, not saying which)
I worked on a similar project in the UK.
The vaccines manufacturing Centre is nearly up and running.
Lol which one? There’s actually a few, of which only one is actually close to being up and running.
So my folks are pretty pissed off. They are due their 2nd (Pfizer) jab next Wednesday, unless they are not.
I'd be interested to hear something outside of the other noise about it.
I get it on one level -
do 1m wk1, 2m wk2, 3m wk3, the first 1m wk4, 2m wk5, 3m wk6...
or... 1m wk1, 2m wk2, 3m wk3, 4m wk4, 5m wk5, 6m wk6...
- it's literally doubling the coverage.
But... that's not what it was sold as to those that took it. I think i'd be a bit pissed off if the rules of the game changed that much while i was in the middle of playing it.
'Noises off' sound like here in Staffs they are going to proceed with the 2nd doses @ 3 weeks, and so on for those already on the chain, but it's yet to be confirmed. I'll be updated on Monday.
Was talking about the vmic one in Oxfordshire, the one that Boris and various other drones like having photos taken in front of.
Am out of gmp now so don't follow the different manufactring sites anymore.
Not surprised that lots more facilities are being built
That's my wife's testing team all vaccinated now (well, 1st dose anyway), only anecdotal evidence, but the folks who have had covid all seem to have had a reaction to the vaccination, all say it's like a very similar day or two afterwards with same feeling as when they were unwell with the virus.
Nothing bad, but interesting all the same. That's them just getting home lateral flow tests too, test themselves twice a week.
graham 1980 - has it.
My neighbour's scientist sister was brought out of early retirement in the summer, as part of a team to help oversee the production in Oxford of this new vaccine. It's a very long drawn out procedure, because standards are so high. These things can't just be thrown up overnight.
Experts are being brought in and everything is being done to the letter.
Edit- Meant to say she is part of the team that are overseeing 'building the facility' to produce the Ox/AZ vaccine
But… that’s not what it was sold as to those that took it.
This is my ethical issue. Informed consent is based on information available. Sometimes that changes with new information or toxicology findings. But this decision is not based on information. If the UK conducted a trial I would be satisfied. But this is no-evidence based medicine.
And I’ve done analyses to try and get drugs approved for different regimens to those tested. I’ve sat across the table and argued with the FDA and EMA why this should be possible. Before Phase 3, I’ve been successful from time to time. But then we’ve tested that reasoning. That’s what I’d do this time.