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On the subject of the impact of home schooling, I'd completely agree that this is about the least-bad option.
At this point in time, in the UK, it's my opinion that the schools need to be shut. Again, just my opinion, but had the Government produced a more coherent staged lockdown plan, with an earlier ramp-up of restrictions, it may have been possible to keep them open. But that ship had sailed, even without the new variant IMO.
What I find the most frustrating is that the government are very obviously just managing the situation on an day-to-day, hour-to-hour basis - 100% firefighting. The situation is fluid, I get it.... but there is absolutely no reason why we shouldn't also be planning, for example, for a nationwide effort to help students get back on track further down the road. What's the plan for lockdown easing once the vaccine starts getting rolled-out? If you've had a vaccine can you go to magaluf/verbier - or do you have to stay at home like everyone else? There should be teams and teams of people working on these medium-term plans, separate to the teams of people working on the day to day response. Maybe there are, and we just haven't heard anything from them yet.... but I doubt it.
I don't mean to cross the streams but I really can't help but think that far more man hours have gone into Brexit than Covid planning.
When you look how that's gone it makes the handling of Covid much more understandable.
I fully believe the Tories absolutely would have left the EU without a deal, push come to shove, right during the middle of a pandemic just as it's about to get very nasty indeed.
That's absolutely incredible when you think about it. Insane but incredible.
I'd love to read a history "book" from 50 years hence, it would make fascinating/sombre reading.
Could you potentially delay the start of school for 5-year-olds for a year?
Not really possible. There is a lack of nursery places already with most having long waiting lists. Keeping the preschoolers in nursery for another year would mean those due to start wouldn't be able to get places.
I don’t mean to cross the streams but I really can’t help but think that far more man hours have gone into Brexit than Covid planning.
I see little evidence of much in the way of planning/strategy/leadership for either
I’d love to read a history “book” from 50 years hence
Yes, I've wondered about this. Particularly of the effect that the pandemic (and the economic fall-out) will have on the current trend towards the right/populism - will it accelerate it, or will it reveal the likes of Boris, Trump, Bolsonaro et al to be incapable of actually leading a country (just getting elected). I live in hope that the pandemic leads us back towards the left, and people representing us that can actually think/manage their way out of a wet paper bag.
thanks for the testing advice. We used a home kit and results were back yesterday. All four of the family have now tested positive - what a miserable christmas but hopefully we are coming out of the woods now. I appreciate it could have been (and still could be ) much much much worse and there are poor people having a far worse time than us.
For information we (adults) have been really strict; have WFH, hardly gone anywhere and wear face masks from the door (inside and outdoors). According to track and trace my daughter (6) came into contact at her after school club and was infected there along with one of her other class mates. We think my daughter passed it to her best friend in her class who has now infected her elderly relative. My daughter was asked to isolate by the school 5 days after the initial contact.
Kids going back to Primary schools in Jan is just nuts.
There should be teams and teams of people working on these medium-term plans, separate to the teams of people working on the day to day response.
There are loads of people working behind the scenes from across all government departments. Whether they have enough appropriate experience, and whether they are getting the support and leadership they need from their political masters is another thing. Policy may be overriding expertise/common sense
I’ve been following this thread with very little contribution, but what’s bothering me now is how the media seem to be saying that we can suddenly “get back to normal” once the oldest and most vulnerable people have been vaccinated. But what about long Covid? From what I have read, about 1 in 20 people with Covid end up with long Covid, including people who were previously really fit and healthy. If we “get back to normal” without vaccinating a much larger proportion of the population, we risk ending up having thousands of people with prolonged and possibly permanent health problems, people who may have young families to care for, and jobs, and active lifestyles.
Another good episode of How to Vaccinate the World with Tim Hartford and Bill Gates
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m000py6s
@vickypea, totally agree. Once all high risk have been vaccinated there's less chance of overwhelming the NHS but that's it.
It's a hard political problem - there has to be a balance between economic harm and harm caused by the disease - but I don't see any reasoned arguments coming from the government. Seems to be the latest version of "it'll be over by Xmas".
@Murray I totally agree it’s a very tricky situation and the economic harm has already been considerable, along with lost jobs, businesses in trouble, social isolation and the effect on education.
My youngest son is doing his GCSEs and I saw the impact on his education and stress levels while his school was closed. I’m not in favour of closing schools and businesses, but I don’t think the general population should be given the message that we can suddenly stop taking precautions like hand washing and social distancing.
I really miss social stuff, hugging my friends, going to live music, etc but vaccinating the over 60s is only a small part of the solution.
.
what’s bothering me now is how the media seem to be saying that we can suddenly “get back to normal” once the oldest and most vulnerable people have been vaccinated
It’s bothering many of us.
The other thing that pisses me off is that school opening is being portrayed as a binary choice. It's not - if the school is open a significant proportion of pupils will still be remote learning as they're self isolating. So the real choice is between a mix of in school and remote learning and all remote learning (with exceptions for key workers etc).
Given that, this summer's exams should be cancelled now.
If we “get back to normal” without vaccinating a much larger proportion of the population, we risk ending up having thousands of people with prolonged and possibly permanent health problems, people who may have young families to care for, and jobs, and active lifestyles.
A very valid concern. Most people I've spoken to seem to understand that, but human nature and for some, financial necessity may over ride their caution. I'm a slightly overweight but fitter than average 51 year old, so slightly increased risk of I catch it. I may be vaccinated by the end of the summer, depending on timings. With two teenagers at school/college and a more infectious variant doing the rounds, I'm remaining very cautious and will be through all of 2021 unless vaccination exceeds target times.
Hands, face, space has to be reinforced by the government and the media at the front of every message, or we'll fail at the final hurdle.
Given that, this summer’s exams should be cancelled now.
I agree. And I think they will be eventually. The kids of the North may have been left to struggle through the exams with huge gaps in teaching, but now the South East is hit harder, when the reality of half empty clashes hits home there, the exams will be off.
Given that, this summer’s exams should be cancelled now.
I'm in two minds about this. Cancelling them completely risks total disengagement from a large number of pupils (my two are in their A level year, and motivation has been a problem anyway).
Alternatives might be an exam massively reduced in scope, with teacher-assessed coursework.
Of course, all this needs organising, and the right time to do that was before September.
this summer’s exams should be cancelled now.
They were cancelled some time ago in Wales. I haven’t noticed any decrease in stress levels in my daughter as a result, and she’s also had very generous offers from the unis she applied to.
Plenty of kids when I was at school had to take a year out for illness or something and did just fine in the end (and plenty who didn’t didn’t). I don’t see a need to panic about education - yet.
@TiRed: You recently said here you have long COVID despite no preexisting conditions but also said you had glandular fever last year. Why do you not count that as a preexisting condition? Could it not have made you more susceptible or indicate some existing predisposition?
I ask because a friend is in the same situation.
what’s bothering me now is how the media seem to be saying that we can suddenly “get back to normal” once the oldest and most vulnerable people have been vaccinated.
All advice has been to vaccinate and maintain restrictions at least until 2Q 2021. Personally, I can’t see huge relaxation until second half of 2021. I don’t to travel abroad next year either. Middle aged people catch COVID and are admitted to hospital. They are not dying from it in large numbers. Vaccination is simply a capacity limited operational challenge to keep them out of hospitals.
But everyone wants to hear good news (over by Christmas...)
Why do you not count that as a preexisting condition?
I’d made a full recovery. Returned to 12 hour TT racing and was back training at up to 400km/week with no adverse events for the previous six months. I do also have psoriasis, which is an auto immune disease, only mildly and not treated. But I wouldnt count that as a comorbidity either. In fact during COVID symptoms improved. Most likely due to a reduction in circulating white blood cells.
I have an slightly unusual HLA type (HLADQ4) but I’m not aware of anything from UK Biobank indicating HLA as a risk factor (yet).
Either way, a racing fit cyclist with an oxygen saturation of 94% and a resting heart rate of 90bpm (normally 43) is rather unusual.
EdIT. I’m not on the list here
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.05.20075507v1
this summer’s exams should be cancelled now.
Should have been cancelled in sept to allow proper changes to teaching to make teacher assessed grades possible beyond guessing and then adjusting with a shit algorithm.
Cancelling them completely risks total disengagement
I would argue the opposite. The kids will know the teachers are assessing them.
Chronic fatigue generally still isn't properly understood, there seems to be a relationship between a viral infection and its onset. The sheer numbers of people with long Covid at least means more of a spotlight will fall on these conditions.
I'm guessing we'll learn more about the mechanism by which some viruses to persist in some patients. It will be interesting to see if other people with long Covid also had more significant or persistent Epstein-Barr Virus infections.
I’d made a full recovery. Returned to 12 hour TT racing and was back training at up to 400km/week with no adverse events for the previous six months
I’m not picking on you, honest, but doesn’t the EB virus hang around forever, potentially causing all kinds of trouble?
If you had Covid, is there a test or pointers to see if you have long Covid? I was positive late Nov/early dec but would say my symptoms were mild- sniffles, cough, headache and trouble concentrating.
Felt fine since mid Dec and had my first ride today since recovery, a little 15 mile road jaunt but it was a struggle. I was glad my bike has a triple. Now I’m back I’ve been coughing more than I have done in the last 2 weeks. Not sure if it’s a case of lack of fitness/Xmas Chub, hope it’s not anything more sinister but would like to know for sure.
Took a walk around my local town for the first time in ages yesterday.
So many businesses are just shutting up and walking away.
The economic devastation is going to take years to work through. Online and the supermarkets are the main beneficiaries.
Even with a massive vaccine rollout, we are going to be locked down until the spring at least in some form or other, and probably until early summer.
All in all, a rather depressing experience.
If you had Covid, is there a test or pointers to see if you have long Covid?
Bit early to say for you. You've not ridden since late November, plus it's pretty cold out, which could be a shock to the system. As an asthmatic, I find that cold weather exercise is a good way of clearing out the tubes, which may be why you're hacking away now.
Standard advice would be to be very careful before resuming proper exercise, and go easy even if your body feels OK, though.
Hopefully a couple more rides and gentle tubby trainer spinning will help me improve.
Also had an odd breathing issue a few times. I’d try to take a deep breath but couldn’t. It would feel like I’d get my lungs filled 90% but then there was a restriction in the airflow stopping more air. A few breaths later i’d be back to normal and could get a lungful in one hit.
I’d try to take a deep breath but couldn’t. It would feel like I’d get my lungs filled 90% but then there was a restriction in the airflow stopping more air.
Some kind of bronchospasm maybe, possibly cold air related, possibly due to residual inflammation in your airways. Very familiar to me, but I'm an asthmatic. Again, I'd be very mindful of these kind of unusual symptoms and back off the intensity until they recede. Have you checked your heart rate during exercise?
The sheer numbers of people with long Covid at least means more of a spotlight will fall on these conditions.
This is exactly what the staff helping my other half with her post viral chronic fatigue have been saying to her. Referrals are through the roof, and so pressure will be growing to properly resource this area of medical care.
Just want to say I received the first vaccine dose this morning and so far haven't developed new ways of telecommunicating or met Bill Gates.
Have you checked your heart rate during exercise?
I got out of the habit of using a HR monitor a couple of years ago when I rode MTB I exclusively. Looks like I’ll be digging it out before the next ride. Thanks for the advice.
Just want to say I received the first vaccine dose this morning and so far haven’t developed new ways of telecommunicating or met Bill Gates.
Well you would say that. That’s what they’ve programmed you to say.
And anyway, where’s your evidence?
to properly resource this area of medical care.
Kelvin, given who our lord & masters are, I fear I think it will be an underfunded area of medical care.
Just want to say I received the first vaccine dose this morning and so far haven’t developed new ways of telecommunicating or met Bill Gates.
Just as well, an insider's view of this place would really freak him out.
My eldest is in his A level year. Wants exams in England cancelling as he feels it will be unfair going for places against this year's Welsh and Scottish students, and those who deferred last year.
His college have made it very clear to students and parents that assessments, mocks etc this year are quite likely to be used for teacher assessed grades if exams are cancelled. Pretty clear that not all the kids are taking the implications of that on board, from what he says. Whichever way it goes, this year's students should have been working to cover their backsides from both angles
I’m not picking on you, honest
Not at all. I'd really like to know too, because the FTP has taken a bit of a hit! (300 down to 175W). I'm indoor cycling for an hour on Zwift or Rollers at the moment coupled with walks of up to two hours at 4 mph. And as luck would have it, have symptoms again - cough mainly and some lung pain. I haven't really had a sense of smell to speak of since April so I don't bother with that sign any more. That includes "off chicken" smells apparently!
Now I’m back I’ve been coughing more than I have done in the last 2 weeks
Cold air is a standard challenge for bronchoconstriction. Not at all surprising. It's one reason for me riding in the garage.
Just want to say I received the first vaccine dose this morning and so far haven’t developed new ways of telecommunicating or met Bill Gates.
Would that be speedster@biogates.org just out of interest? 😉
This is Bill talking: quiet servile beings and adhere to the plan.
FTFY
Anyhow, it's the second dose that has the microchip. Why waste the money on people who die from anaphylaxis shortly after getting the first one? 🙂
Questions the antivaxxers don't want you to ask 😁
If it's a choice of that ffffing paperclip or the virus I am now 50:50
Just want to say I received the first vaccine dose this morning and so far haven’t developed new ways of telecommunicating or met Bill Gates.
Full comms only starts a week after the second jab. 🙂
Just want to say I received the first vaccine dose this morning and so far haven’t developed new ways of telecommunicating or met Bill Gates.
You'll need to download and install an obscure driver before you get full functionality
Very Bladerunner… not a Microsoft one though… are Sony chipping us as well?! It’s worse than I feared.
are Sony chipping us as well?! It’s worse than I feared.
Proprietary software, so only some of us need to worry.
Sorry what 53 000 cases today!
Serious question time.
If you'd had covid earlier in the year and were subjected to a reinfection around now, would you expect to get mild symptoms for a day or two as your body identified and dealt with the virus, or would it all happen without you noticing it?
Most likely wouldnt notice I imagine
Sorry what 53 000 cases today!
Reported today, after a long period where some reporting sources would've been slower than usual (same caveat also applies to other reported stats). It's still not going to be a pretty picture but as has been said before there is a lot of "noise" in testing figures so they're not a great metric to track, but if you do want to track them look at 7 day counts by sample date rather than the headline news figure.
Reported today, after a long period where some reporting sources would’ve been slower than usual
True but those were record breaking days too so the weekly average will be huge. Its a pretty big dead canary.
7 day average
No idea what's going on in Wales!
https://www.travellingtabby.com/uk-coronavirus-tracker/
or would it all happen without you noticing it?
You might notice symptoms of immune response - headache, aches, chills. You might not experience upper respiratory tract infection: cough, loss of smell etc. The new strain may be more infectious and may cause infection earlier (tighter ACE2 binding, lower viral titer for infection). To be honest we don't know.
I get repeated immune responses (primarily a very sore neck due to a longstanding whiplash injury), worsened psoriasis (unless covid when it improves). But it is early days for reinfection for a coronavirus.
As I understand it the Swiss aren't very good at giving out much info on their covid 19 situation. A lot of the residents there have almost led normal lives.
Each Canton have their own rules about what you should do.
E.G At Christmas one could have people visiting but from any household with up to 6. Possible the info came in late for the skiers. However imo if you go abroad anywhere you should be prepared to self isolate and adhere to the rules of the land.
As for Hand, face and space, I have said all along that it needs to be drummed into people. There are too many thinking the vaccination will stop them getting covid19 and once they have the jab they're immune. I agree with Vicky Pea, that more should be made of the fact there is not going to be a normal, only a new normal and we must all socially distance ourselves, wear face coverings (correctly) and wash our hands, even when you've had both vaccinations. I can't understand why more isn't being said about this.
😂😂🤣
All that makes me think is that the twitter poster is either being a wind up or a twa*
Thanks TiRed. I ask this from my bed where I'm suffering from headache, aches and chills but have a normal temperature and just a slight cough.
Way back in February/March my teacher wife was pretty ill and lost her sense of smell for about 6 months. The whole family was ill as well but less severely. Of course there was no testing back then.
Two weeks ago it swept through my wife's department with 4 cases in 18 staff then last week my daughter was told to self isolate after cases in her year. She was a bit ill for two days. Now 7 days later I'm feeling rubbish but am confident it's peaked after 24rs. Am awaiting test results.
More curious than anything although it's of course a teeny tiny bit worrying.
That welsh graph takes some explaining.
ICUs in London reportedly about to start sending patients outside the capital, potentially as far as Yorkshire.
The only comfort is that at least this is happening somewhere where the politicians might take note of it for once.
And this is without the effects of the final week of hopping on the Tube to go Christmas shopping, and Christmas itself.
The only good thing is schools broke up on 18th, so that is through the system case wise by now.
ICUs in London reportedly about to start sending patients outside the capital, potentially as far as Yorkshire.
Bet London hospitals wouldn't take patients from up here if it was the other way round.
I haved lived in Switzerland for more than a decade.
As I understand it the Swiss aren’t very good at giving out much info on their covid 19 situation.
The Government releases figures and information daily:
in four languages as well as a Friday afternoon press conference/report from the government.
A lot of the residents there have almost led normal lives.
not really, no complete lockdown but life in the last 10 months was not normal.
Each Canton have their own rules about what you should do.
The Kantons do have their own rules but central government has the final word.
It's not great here at the moment but I am not in fear of death, nor do I feel that my liberty is being eroded.
Bet London hospitals wouldn’t take patients from up here if it was the other way round
I'm sorry but that is absolute rubbish
If they have capacity any hospital will take patients
Scenes from places like the Trafford Centre are truly depressing. What is wrong with people. We've just had an orgy of consumerism with Christmas day, why do people need a second one, this year of all years.
I’m sorry but that is absolute rubbish
If they have capacity any hospital will take patients
I think you underestimate the role of politics in our beloved NHS.
For whoever asked about getting COVID twice. My partner first got it in April/march (can’t really remember), had textbook symptoms. She then got it a second time some weeks ago, this time it was dizziness, headaches and cough. Whilst she recovered from both she did say the second time seems to have worse after effects than the first one.
Maybe she got the new strain of COVID the second time round, who knows, the joys of being in a COVID ward and paying a tenner in parking a day.
Whilst she recovered from both she did say the second time seems to have worse after effects than the first one.
Antibody-dependent enhancement is a thing. A low level of antibodies help shuttle virus into cells to enhance severity of infection. It was noted for the Dengue virus vaccine. I hope she is feeling better.
@eulach thank you for that update. If only we had the same coordination. Healthcare is a devolved issue. Until it isn't. Analysing the data has been a challenge - at least the nations upload the data to the govenrnment dashboard now.
Good stuff this morning, hopefully speed of vaccinations will ramp up now.
Baboonz did she have 2 positive tests? If not, then you'll never know.
this time it was dizziness, headaches and cough
This is what I've had, along with loss of taste and smell.
The cough has been accompanied by a blocked/snotty nose though, so not sure if I've had a cold at the same time.
The guy who gave it me, also had the same.
ICUs in London reportedly about to start sending patients outside the capital, potentially as far as Yorkshire.
Aberdeen icu has been taking patients from Glasgow area for ages.
ICUs in London reportedly about to start sending patients outside the capital, potentially as far as Yorkshire.
That can't be right - ICU beds are empty. At least according to the ususal right wing stooges and aided by censorship of press reporting.
Thanks @TiRed all is good now thankfully.
Baboonz did she have 2 positive tests? If not, then you’ll never know.
Well for the first one she never got a test because testing nhs personnel was a low priority, however I had to take her for half a day to the hospital since she was getting worse and the consultant said she was 99% sure it was COVID. The timing fit perfectly when she had unknowingly been exposed to a COVID positive patient in inadequate circumstances.
For the second one she did get a positive from test and trace.
Another of her friends who works in ICU London also reported having COVID twice with similar symptoms.
Just going back to the numbers for yesterday - some of it was explained by catching up from the weekend. With Monday being a bank holiday would yesterday's numbers still be depressed and today being the catch up one?
Whilst she recovered from both she did say the second time seems to have worse after effects than the first one.
Whilst I still don't know if the second time was a re-infection or just a flare up my experience was similar but milder symptoms. Recovery definitely took a lot longer - much more fatigue and brain fug.
Just going back to the numbers for yesterday – some of it was explained by catching up from the weekend. With Monday being a bank holiday would yesterday’s numbers still be depressed and today being the catch up one?
Yes, but we are getting to the stage now where daily testing pure and simple is no longer a reliable indicator. Seven day average is better, but hospital admissions and deaths are more reliable. Even admissions could become unreliable, as a lack of capacity could lead to certain older/sicker patients being triaged to receive palliative care outside hospital. Once capacity is exhausted, admissions will stop climbing.
What's going on with the Nightingale hospitals? Are they being used?
No staff.
I wonder if they might end up being regional vaccination hubs?