Forum menu
@TiRed, do you have any insight as to why much of the modelling is still so disastrously wrong?
I did ask them about this. I think it comes down to data streams and treatment of incomplete data. That and some extreme sensitivities to underlying parameters.
I see the Cambridge BSU group have just updated their estimate of R in London…to 1.1. It’s clearly nonsense and yet this stuff is pushed into SAGE on a regular basis.
Clearly a doubling time of a week is incompatible with 1.1, but if you discount the last five days of data for data reporting delays, then estimation becomes harder. But invaribaly estimation of cases and admissions only tend to go UP with reporting delays, so 1.1 isn't even the best case (1.5 is closer to the mark).
When my models generate palpable nonsense I look for why they are wrong, I don’t just publish the results as a forecast that others are expected to take seriously.
This times a hundred. At this juncture, I've been using data-driven regression models from cases to admissions and cases to deaths. That gives me two-week insight. Four is challenging and beyond four is really of little value. Other models will be blowing at six weeks, and policy will render those invalid anyway.
so a bit of tolerance would be in order.
To be fair the majority of what he said was bollocks and he attached a well respected and decorated contributor and person of the thread without consideration to his or others circumstances.
It’s saving millions of lives. Waiting for nature to thin the herd and eventually, hopefully, do its thing doesn’t need consideration… this is 2020, not 1920*.
[* fourth wave of Spanish Flu, just in case you didn’t get the reference ]
Sorry - I get that the lockdown/restrictions is saving lives now and is the right thing to do. But long term is that helping or hindering the virus’s natural progression to eventually becoming less severe?
Are you sure arsebiscuits is a "he"?
I see a lot of bullying and arrogance on this thread. It’s a hard time for everyone, so a bit of tolerance would be in order.
Nah..if you read his post you'd know that arsebiscuits displays no tolerance whatsoever. He set up an account simply to troll and insult people, many whom have suffered greatly due to covid. He deserves all the ridicule he gets, as from his 2 posts so far he comes across as an utter xxxx.
The "less severe" thing is little more than guesswork. It might happen, it might not. Remember smallpox? Centuries of coexistence and it was still pretty dangerous, as flu and even common colds are in populations with no immunity such as native american and amazonian tribes.
It will probably be less severe for us once we've all either had it or had a vaccine, as even with ongoing mutations we will probably have some remnants of immunity. I don't think anyone expects repeated epidemic waves of it for years to come. But that isn't necessarily because of changes in its innate behaviour.
But long term is that helping or hindering the virus’s natural progression to eventually becoming less severe?
Neither - it's providing time to give people a vaccine that is effectively their lifetime infection experience they would have had naturally. With that protection, the virus is probably not that severe, and subsequent mortality might fall into line with other coronaviruses (i.e., relatively benign in the young, serious in the elderly).
Some predictions over the Christmas period. The rise in predicted deaths is due to the rise in reported cases since lockdown. Were deaths to be lower, this would be encouraging from the view of the pathogenicity of the emergent strain. The analysis uses prediction only from the second blue line onwards. Solid lines are restrictions. Dashed lines are relaxation of controls. Horizontal dashed line is April maximum by region/nation. The sharp downturn in Wales in January is a data artifact from case reporting delays now.
Just been told to self isolate. ****.
Two wrongs don’t make a right...
TiRed does seem to be something of a saint and I have a lot of respect for him. But he doesn’t know everything and I can see for myself that he doesn’t get everything right. So there is still scope to question both his analysis and the government line.
I’m wasting my time, I know, but I just don’t get the overpowering consensus on here. In the real world, most people do not trust the science or the government and are not hiding behind the sofa. The doom and gloom here is oddly unrepresentative.
I can see for myself that he doesn’t get everything right
Indeed, I predicted cases, admissions and deaths in the South East would fall during and stabilise after lockdown! Then science. I learned of the new strain at the same time as everyone else. But it does fit the narrative of the last week of lockdown.
I am perfectly happy with decision-making with unknowns. It's part of my day job. I'm actually optimistic. This is now a Global logistics problem more than a science problem (that was not a given). But my timeframe for optimism is a little longer than Boris'.
From an evolutionary perspective, wouldn’t all viruses want that outcome?
Evolution isnt that much of a planner. Its just what gets into the next generation. For a virus:
Being highly contagious is a clear advantage.
Having a long contagious period without showing symptoms is also going to be an advantage.
So in that way something more mild could be selected for but it could equally be something which although has high lethality takes a long time to get there.
Dissent is verboten.
No it isn’t.
But, as it happens I agree with a few posts on this page 100%… not least the most recent from Murray and Dissonance.
Make a point, expect disagreement rather than everyone just accepting that point… but most of all, be ready to be challenged. Agreement among people who like mountain biking is never mandatory. Bad faith trolling under yet another new forum name doesn’t go down well though… especially in this thread, as it is about something that has taken people from many of us, and damaged the health of others. If you have something to say that might be “a bit contrary”, have the balls to say it without hiding behind a new forum name. Otherwise you’ll be called what you are, a little coward playing games.
not hiding behind the sofa
It’s strong this meme isn’t it. The idea that people who are acting in ways that are detrimental to living their normal lives are “hiding” or “scared”… when the truth is… that they are trying to help stop the spread of this virus to protect others, not themselves. They are not scared. They are not hiding. They are adapting their lives for a relatively short period of time to help protect others.
I’m wasting my time, I know, but I just don’t get the overpowering consensus on here. In the real world, most people do not trust the science or the government and are not hiding behind the sofa. The doom and gloom here is oddly unrepresentative.
No-one is advocating 'hiding behind the sofa' (interesting both you and arsebiscuits use exactly the same phrase btw 🤔). I've been going about my life, albeit following the restrictions that are in place. I'm taking precautions, I'm very careful not to get it, but I'm not scared in anyway.
Have you ever thought that the reason that the virus is massively out of control is precisely because people don't trust the science and are doing whatever they like?
In fact maybe just maybe if everyone took it as seriously as the folks on this thread we wouldn't be in such a mess as we are now..
Arsebiscuits is a bit ranty yet there are some fair points in there.
Mmm... Nah, not a one - all they're about is saying "conventional wisdom is wrong and you're cowardly idiots for believing it" without offering any viable alternative.
What's noteworthy is that you're accusing people of being nasty in defense of the only really obnoxious poster in this thread.
most people do not
trustunderstand the science
I spend a lot of my time making the science accessible to all. I also question the science all the time. I've had COVID19. The bad kind. I don't recommend it, but the absolute risk is relatively small (I've never claimed otherwise), so I try and retain perspective. I have never screamed lockdown, and have questioned policy multiple times, NHSTT is a case in point. Had this been a transmissible SARS-CoV1, we'd all be indoors by choice. It most definitely is not.
Typo above. The model fits data up to the FIRST blue dashed line, then it is predicting from that day onwards using daily cases. For a data-driven regression, it's doing a pretty good job. If only NHS and ONS would talk to each other. Cases and deaths match by nation and region, but hospital admissions are grouped differently. Grrr.
The doom and gloom here is oddly unrepresentative.
You should tell my local barber that. He's self-employed and lost a lot of money this year and now has to face a Xmas where his kids can't visit their grandparents and an impending full lockdown in January leading to a further loss of income
I'm not sure why you think the "doom and gloom" is not representative. I'm yet to meet anyone who thinks this will be over quickly
I know, but I just don’t get the overpowering consensus on here. In the real world, most people do not trust the science or the government and are not hiding behind the sofa. The doom and gloom here is oddly unrepresentative.
STW is very unrepresentative of the general population. It is much better educated - the proportion of people on here with masters or doctorates is far greater than that in the wider population - this presumably why exsee was so keen to dismiss us as 'know-it-alls'. It is also relatively affluent - Audis, BMWs and carbon enduro bikes are not cheap. Most of my real world contacts are also affluent and educated, and the 'doom and gloom' on here is pretty much the same view expressed in my IRL social group. It's also worth noting that so far, they've been right.
TiRed
Could the new strain have modified its behaviour to be abit more aggressive?
Thus letting people know they definitely are out of sorts and reducing the number of asymptomatic people who can be unwitting shedders.
Hence the jump in new strain prominence as you get symptoms, you get a test. More antibody reaction = uh oh, im ill
As opposed to, im fine its just fatigue
Or is the new version reinfecting people who had version 1 and didn't know it, but v2 lets you know for sure hence the dramatic rise in tests amd positives
Crossing the streams…
A reminder that our politicians chose to end the transition period when we were expecting the second wave of this pandemic to coincide with the normal NHS yearly crisis…
The donkeys that we elected have made this January the bit of a mess that it will be… they choose this… they have let us all down…
https://twitter.com/joncstone/status/1341086491045453827?s=21
STW is very unrepresentative of the general population. It is much better educated – the proportion of people on here with masters or doctorates is far greater than that in the wider population
Jesus. How conceited?
It is also relatively affluent – Audis, BMWs and carbon enduro bikes are not cheap. Most of my real world contacts are also affluent and educated, and the ‘doom and gloom’ on here is pretty much the same view expressed in my IRL social group.
You don't think perhaps that people in this group might not be the best to ask about the impacts on the poor who might not be able to afford to lockdown or hole up in their comfortable 4/5 bedroom semis or detached houses to ride out the virus? Is it not possible that arsebiscuits and exsee (assuming they are different people) might be justified in their reluctance to be lectured by people whose experience of this pandemic is a million miles away from what their own might be?
STW is very unrepresentative of the general population.
How conceited?
You are criticising someone for saying something I feel you have told us yourself a million* times.
[ *more than 10 ]
Keep defending the obvious trolls though Dazh, it’s interesting to watch, not sure what to make of it to be honest. I’m sure you’ll accuse us all of “not talking to anyone” because we don’t welcome trolling so obvious the ceiling has scrape marks from the horns.
I see a lot of bullying and arrogance on this thread. It’s a hard time for everyone, so a bit of tolerance would be in order.
No tolerance at all regarding the sort of virulent conspiracy trolling being carried out by one specific individual. Not arrogant, just tired of that sort of lying bullshit.
No-one is advocating ‘hiding behind the sofa’ (interesting both you and arsebiscuits use exactly the same phrase btw 🤔).
Dammit, rumbled.
Have you ever thought that the reason that the virus is massively out of control is precisely because people don’t trust the science and are doing whatever they like?
Yes. My point is: Where are all these people? Statistically they must dominate on STW too. Why are they so quiet here?
What’s noteworthy is that you’re accusing people of being nasty in defense of the only really obnoxious poster in this thread.
Fair point. But it wasn’t defence. Just wish there was more balance. And kindness.
OK, I have a question. How many of you, hand on heart, have not at any time broken the Covid rules?
The answer will almost certainly be none. So can you really be so holier than thou about everyone else being so irresponsible?
Could the new strain have modified its behaviour to be a bit more aggressive?
It could bind tighter, so less viral particles are required for an infection. It could replicate faster so a higher viral load, it could give fewer symptoms for the same viral load... I don't know and I doubt anyone else does yet!
Published today a report on the mutations by COG-UK.
1777 mutations in the spike protein. Five amino acid changes plus one deletion of an amino acid are being investigated. The N501Y is in the part that binds to the cell receptor ACE2 (more strongly). Two other strains escape neutralisation by the antibodies from Lilly and Regeneron.
Despite the conspiracy theorists "never isolated"... I like a picture because these are real physical entities. Small ones (50-200 nm across), but real. Each virus has a few hundred spikes. They are are made of three protein chains folded together into a flower-like structure. That's the corona of the cornoavirus. Proteins are strings of amino acids that fold up into a blob. That blob is the functional unit. Swaps in the amino acid sequence changes the way a protein folds together and hence its shape.
Left is side on, Right is top down (three-fold symmetry). 501 is the change that matters, but 69/70 missing on the side also causes stronger binding. 439 and 453 are the two sites that swap to escape the monoclonal antibodies. The antibody I work on comes in at the stalk on the side, away from the Receptor Binding Domain (RBD) that locks onto ACE2, so is less sensitive to selection pressure.
https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4857
Could the new strain have modified its behaviour to be abit more aggressive
No, its a virus
At least the actual expert managed to answer the question.
Kelvin
It’s strong this meme isn’t it. The idea that people who are acting in ways that are detrimental to living their normal lives are “hiding” or “scared”… when the truth is… that they are trying to help stop the spread of this virus to protect others, not themselves. They are not scared. They are not hiding. They are adapting their lives for a relatively short period of time to help protect others.
Hence my relatively brief 2 line post earlier.
There is almost certainly a bigger "buy-in" from people with living older parents/relatives .. and as I also pointed out a large group who have lost their income and ability to feed their own children.
It's not surprising some are more bothered about for example feeding their kids than someone else's gran.
It is also relatively affluent – Audis, BMWs and carbon enduro bikes are not cheap.
#luxuryyachttrackworld
#privatejettrackworld
#secondhomeinthealpstrackworld
OK, I have a question. How many of you, hand on heart, have not at any time broken the Covid rules?
The answer will almost certainly be none. So can you really be so holier than thou about everyone else being so irresponsible?
I'm not sure, but I believe this is known as 'whataboutery'
#dontwanttokillmymumtrackworld.
OK, I have a question. How many of you, hand on heart, have not at any time broken the Covid rules?
I can say i have stuck to the rules completely. I can't afford to take any chances of passing COVID to my dad who has severe COPD
Have I broken the rules ? Possibly - I used to drive 4 miles to the woods to walk my dogs during lockdown 1. Also went to the nearest supermarket a few weeks back, then realised it was in tier 3 and I wasn’t supposed to!
What I always have done is try to make sensible and safe decisions. I cancelled my Christmas weeks ago. I haven’t been to the pub all year as it’s full of COVID deniers.
My point is: Where are all these people? Statistically they must dominate on STW too. Why are they so quiet here?
The assumption you're making there is that stw is representative of the population at large. I don't believe it is but don't have any data to back up my assumption. Do you have any to back up yours?
At least the actual expert managed to answer the question.
He is nicer and more tolerant than I am.
I'm sorry, but lots of people have questioned the government's and "experts" views and advice from the beginning of this thread.
Most of us are still disagreeing with the government's handling of the pandemic. But not in terms of relaxing lockdowns to keep the economy going. Because experts like TiRed - and others on here - have explained the consequences of doing so in terms of Covid and non-Covid deaths, and the knock on effect of that in the economy.
Spouting nonsense, like arsebiscuits did, is not going to change our minds. Give us some considered, expert alternatives, and we'll consider it and debate it.
Just don't complain if your expert alternatives don't convince people.
As TiRed has said from the beginning, we are looking for the least worse option.
Back in the vaccination world....
The MHRA have now formally approved getting a sixth dose out of every vial. This might not always be possible but in most cases does seem to be (based on batches received so far anyway)
So every tray of 975 doses now potentially contains 1170 doses, which is giving a few vaccination clinics (not ours, more the smaller primary care ones) a headache as they now have more doses to give in a very short window
So expect a few less desirable news organisations to start reporting about ‘wasted doses’ and suchlike, when in fact more doses have been given than originally planned
Jesus. How conceited?
It's a fact. If I was suggesting that that made us inherently better people, that would be conceited. But it's just a fact - what you do with that fact is up to you. You chose to attack me for stating a fact - why?
OK, I have a question. How many of you, hand on heart, have not at any time broken the Covid rules?
The answer will almost certainly be none. So can you really be so holier than thou about everyone else being so irresponsible?
Erm... I think I went for two walks on my own on a couple of days during the first lockdown.
On the other hand I've just come across a household in Tier 2 where an Xmas visitor from Tier 4 (central london) arrived yesterday for the period, another one in his 70's - also from a Tier 4 area will be due in a day or two and stay over xmas, plus a visiting friend also in her 70s will likely be popping in on xmas day. The host works in a managerial position in the NHS and the London visitor also works for the NHS.
Meanwhile I'm spending xmas alone as are my parents and several others I know to pitch in to help get this under control. Those just doing what works for then really pees me off.
OK, I have a question. How many of you, hand on heart, have not at any time broken the Covid rules?
I/we haven't. My wife is a community based healthcare worker. We both have to behave ourselves to protect her vulnerable patients. It's not ideal but we both recognise that this situation is about much more than our wishes to see our families and/or friends, go to the pub or generally go about having a great time. I guess that we're just being grown-ups, many others aren't.
I guess I have broken the rules once or twice as I have been swimming in the river with more than one other person a few times.
other than that have been avoiding everything else as much as possible to protect my mum who is in our bubble and clinically vulnerable.
I haven't broken the rules. If anyone can tell me when I have, I'm all ears. I am on the Shielding list, so have been very careful, but I have had to go from shielding isolation on 31 July to working back in a mainstream Secondary school on 10 August. That was quite a rapid adjustment.
Not knowingly (I must have at some point) but have had a visit from the police after I was accused of doing so during the Welsh firebreak. I was at my parent's house (40 miles away from my place) to take my mum to hospital for an appointment and a neighbour reported me for being there. The local PCSO knows me and my family as they helped us out during the flooding back in February so had an inkling why I was there so called round that evening. A quick chat and explaining that I was there for care duties and all was fine. I'm doing the same now, a visit every 4-5 days to do some housework for them and take them/get shopping for them, so fully expect another person to report me as all they see is me turn up early morning, potter about in the garage for an hour or two then go home in the evening. I know who reported me last time and they are a right pain about it all after they got caught away from home in Yorkshire during the first lockdown so hopefully they'll report me again and the PCSO can visit again as she's rather lovely.
The answer will almost certainly be none.
On one occasion, I entered my empty local shop without a mask after I asked the owner if this was ok as I’d forgotten mine. I’ve not broken any other rules.
How many of you, hand on heart, have not at any time broken the Covid rules?
Me.
I've been working from home for ages and haven't felt any need to. No kids or wife probably makes it easier. I live in a shared house up here so we swap around shopping duties and elderly landladies daughter often brings over shopping and leave it outside for us.
Never cycle in groups. Kept inside the distance regulations at eh start until they were relaxed for local exercise.
Having a big garden and a gokart and a racing lawnmower to tweak helped with the boredom.
My MiL (not exactly a covid denier, but thinks the rules are stupid, brexiteer, bit racist in general) has just got herself uninvited from her Christmas bubble dinner and is now all weepie on the phone to my wife because she'll be alone at Christmas.
Why's she been uninvited? Because her son, my BiL went and stayed this weekend. He lives in London, she's in the West Country. T4 going to a T2 area.
How do I respond. Who do I respond to? To the old lady who's now going to be all alone on Christmas day, or the grown up that should ****ing well know better.
How many of you, hand on heart, have not at any time broken the Covid rules?
I bent them a bit in LD1, deciding it was safer to drive a couple of miles to walk on the ranges away from other people, rather than among the masses on the nearest open space.
I'm not sure if I just did again now. My daughter works a couple of evenings at a supermarket in a nearby town, which is in T2. We're in T4. She's allowed to go as it's for work; but she doesn't drive and doesn't seem sensible to send her by train. Am I legally allowed to go from T4 to T2 to take and collect her; I don't get out of the car and know I can't go in the the supermarket as I might do in normal times.
Only rule I've intentionally broken is probably hugging my parents a couple of times in the summer when technically we should have been 2 metres apart. Other than that, had some socially distanced picnics with mates in the park or in a garden when it was allowed, ride with a mate once a week.
I can work from home. The kids are at school, wife is a social worker so in and out of clients houses, I don't need to be seeking out my own source of the virus, or potentially passing it on from any of them.
If you've got an alternative POV present it and back it up with links to factual information. It'll get looked at. Flounce around like an insulty Kevin The Teenager and you'll get picked up on it. Everyone's entitled to an opinion but people are not entitled to their own facts.
Some opinions DO have more worth than others. When we give equal weight to opinions based on junk science or 'stands to reason' logical gymnastics we make bad decisions. If only I could think of an example of that from recent history... 🤔
Keep defending the obvious trolls though Dazh, it’s interesting to watch, not sure what to make of it to be honest.
Oh honestly, it's not defending trolls to suggest that maybe this place doesn't have a monopoly on being right. It's probably true though that it is a very middle class and somewhat blinkered bubble, and the snobbery displayed towards those that don't fit is entirely in line with that. A lot of people on here - not necessarily you I might add - could do with listening a bit more, opening their eyes and being receptive to the idea they might be wrong.
Total derailment, after losing my job and being unemployed I've now got a job 7 days before lock down and the business has to close. Can I get furloughed or not I can't tell? I really hope the answer is yes
A lot of people on here – not necessarily you I might add – could do with listening a bit more, opening their eyes and being receptive to the idea they might be wrong.
Irony.
tabletop:
looks like you needed to be on the books by the 30th october. very sorry.
That's not the answer I was hoping for haha - let's just hope it's the 3 weeks (it's retail in Scotland)
have a good google around and check. i remember martin lewis from MSE was giving what seemed like excellent advice on this scheme the first time around so it's probably worth a look on that site for more information.
not a great time for unemployment (not that it ever is). been there myself. fingers crossed for you for next year.
dash
It’s probably true though that it is a very middle class and somewhat blinkered bubble, and the snobbery displayed towards those that don’t fit is entirely in line with that
I am most definitely not middle class. I have no idea where the snobbery is that you infer I have experienced in this thread or on stw in general?
This thread is my go to for reasoned, challenged information regarding Covid. Questionable assertions get challenged, that's a positive, not a negative.
Genuinely no offence intended dazh, just my take on things.
The whole class thing is a deception.
Working class? anyone whos doing a job for money is working class... it's a victorian age logical fallacy.
A bit like people from India who are borne into a 'caste' .
Yes. My point is: Where are all these people? Statistically they must dominate on STW too. Why are they so quiet here?
They get shouted down and told how awful it is that some peoples relatives/friends have died. Threads seem to get a critical mass that jumps on dissenting opinions, on here that's not following guidance as if it was law, and wanting further restrictions. On Pistonheads it's masks are pointless and lockdowns do far more harm than good.
Question for the more informed:
If I understood the earlier post correctly, less of the virus will make you catch it in the new variant; what does this mean in practice for social distancing etc? Presumably we have to keep further apart (e.g 3m not 2m)? And for less time? Previously they were saying it was very unlikely you’d catch off surfaces, is this still the case?
Ok, so the experts are saying that this new virus strain is probably already all round the country, and they've just watched a few trains potentially full of it roll out of the London mainline stations.
So why are we not ramping the whole country up to Tier 4 now, rather than leaving it to see if it gets as bad as we think it will first?
Question asked (actually shouted at the BBC news in a style not dissimilar to his father) by my 17 year old.
Not bad at all. A few benders. A few perfect 10s.
I too have been very very good apart from riding a couple of times with my main cycling buddy during lockdown after he was diagnosed with a terminal illness.
I wonder though if all these other people we see around us also think they are being sensible and complying with the spirit if not the letter of the law, or feel they have special reasons not to.
But even all you good’uns, have you never stopped to talk to someone less than two metres apart? Touched someone without thinking? Not washed your hands after shopping? Made a journey that wasn’t genuinely essential?
Or ridden with friends? I have. Forget social distancing when you’re following someone on a bike. Ever seen how much of a cloud you exhale when the weather’s cold?
I think we’re pretty much all guilty in some way of spreading this thing.
(Well, not literally in the case of people who haven’t had it, obvs)
So tales about so-and-so doing such-and-such aren’t too helpful.
I’d be most interested in hearing how we know a vaccine that has been tested for less than a year will actually work and will not cause harm five or ten years down the line. And why we should trust this government or big pharma when they say it’s safe and effective.
A couple of drugs my family have been given or offered have since been withdrawn for being useless and/or unsafe, and they were tested for years.
maybe this place doesn’t have a monopoly on being right
Of course it doesn’t. And there’s plenty of disagreement on this thread, and others. But create a new account just to troll on this thread, like “arsebiscuit”, and you get called out for it.
On Pistonheads it’s masks are pointless and lockdowns do far more harm than good
We have had plenty of discussion here on mask use by the general public (there was probably a consensus early on that they were worse than pointless, that was my view for one, but, lots of evidence and discussion swayed it the other way for many of us months ago, for some it’s still not a clear thing) and plenty on the negative effects of lockdowns and other measures brought in… and plenty of disagreement and challenging of the line taken both by the government and their scientific advisors. This is a very “sceptical” forum, but we discuss things… and most of the time that is done quite politely in this thread. There is a greater need to keep it level headed than normal.
big pharma
We have “big pharma” contributors… I’m sure they’ll engage… but there have already been decent in-depth posts about how the shorter than normal evaluation period doesn’t mean less has been done, more that normal delays and costs have been crushed due to the need.
So why are we not ramping the whole country up to Tier 4 now, rather than leaving it to see if it gets as bad as we think it will first?
You must be new to UK society, no?
A super strain that's just as bad but 70% more contagiuos.
I’m not sure if I just did again now. My daughter works a couple of evenings at a supermarket in a nearby town, which is in T2. We’re in T4. She’s allowed to go as it’s for work; but she doesn’t drive and doesn’t seem sensible to send her by train. Am I legally allowed to go from T4 to T2 to take and collect her; I don’t get out of the car and know I can’t go in the the supermarket as I might do in normal times.
There's not even anything in the legislation to stop you traveling from a tier 4 area to a tier 2 area to do your shopping or just go for a walk. Despite what various ministers have said there aren't restriction on travel inside England. It's worrying that they've either not read the legislation or are lying.
I’d be most interested in hearing how we know a vaccine that has been tested for less than a year will actually work and will not cause harm five or ten years down the line. And why we should trust this government or big pharma when they say it’s safe and effective.
It's been covered at length earlier in the thread. The majority of time taken for 'testing' is in gathering sufficient people to test it on (not an issue here, the subject population is vast) and in in getting the data analysed and reviewed and understood and approved, much of which is queuing time in normal times. Here, it's not been fast tracked per se, just has got to the point of being reviewed faster and 'all hands on deck' to do those reviews.
Of course, if you are sceptical of whether science can be trusted then this won't satisfy you at all, but doesn't mean it isn't true. Do I trust the scientists - yes. Do I give anyone with an opinion and an internet connection the same mindshare - I'm afraid not. Convince me of why your evidence is better than the peer reviewed though, I'm open to listen.
So why are we not ramping the whole country up to Tier 4 now, rather than leaving it to see if it gets as bad as we think it will first?
It would be politically damaging shutting down the North yet again for a problem in London after basically leaving us with little help when the problem was up here. They don't really give a shit if it spreads up here either.
https://www.gov.uk/guidance/tier-4-stay-at-home
"If you live in a Tier 4 area, you must follow the rules below. This means that you cannot leave or be outside of the place you are living unless you have a reasonable excuse.
(various are given, but:)
Essential Activities
You can leave home to buy things at shops or obtain services from a business which is permitted to open in your Tier 4 area, but you should stay local. For instance you can leave home to buy food or medicine, or to collect any items - including food or drink - ordered through click-and-collect or as a takeaway, to obtain or deposit money (e.g. from a bank or post office), or to access critical public services (see section below).
I’d be most interested in hearing how we know a vaccine that has been tested for less than a year will actually work and will not cause harm five or ten years down the line. And why we should trust this government or big pharma when they say it’s safe and effective.
No trust required, here's the paper.... you can read it for yourself:
shutting down the North yet again
We’ve been opened up?!? I missed that.
I too have been very very good apart from riding a couple of times with my main cycling buddy during lockdown after he was diagnosed with a terminal illness.
I wonder though if all these other people we see around us also think they are being sensible and complying with the spirit if not the letter of the law, or feel they have special reasons not to.
I've broken the rules a few times too. But I'd be amazed if there isn't the full spectrum of activity out there, from people who've been 100% dedicated to those who've gone out of their way to flout the advice at any given opportunity. I do remember that the Google data from LD1 showed a massive amount of compliance. Would be interesting to see how that's changed.
I’d be most interested in hearing how we know a vaccine that has been tested for less than a year will actually work and will not cause harm five or ten years down the line. And why we should trust this government or big pharma when they say it’s safe and effective.
A couple of drugs my family have been given or offered have since been withdrawn for being useless and/or unsafe, and they were tested for years.
I think there have been explanations as to how it's been developed so quickly without additional risk. But those will come linked to processes from government agencies or pharma, so not sure if that will help you. Where else would they come from that you would trust? I don't think any drug can be guaranteed safe. But I'd expect any vaccines to have been worked on by the finest minds in the field. So a better chance than most?
I’d be most interested in hearing how we know a vaccine that has been tested for less than a year will actually work
this has been demonstrated through tests. the data generated has been published and peer reviewed. finally it's been approved by the MHRA in this country for use under the guidance.
and will not cause harm five or ten years down the line.
this we don't know for certain but cooler heads than mine say that ill effects show up early doors. it is of course still possible that longer term effects may become apparent later on. but you know - you have a choice. you don't have to take it.
And why we should trust this government or big pharma when they say it’s safe and effective.
this government? i not only don't trust them i believe they are acting against the best interests of the country in a lot of situations. they're mendacious, venal, lying, distrustful shits the lot of them. a colossal shower of bastards. but that's just my view.
big pharma? they've a lot to gain by being first to market, arguably, but also a lot to loose, and they're being held to scrutiny by the whole world but in the first instance by other scientists and then medical regulators. the truth will certainly out in the end. your alternative to pfizer is sputnik v. who would you trust more?
again - you don't have to take it. there are plenty who won't for their own reasons. fine. you have a choice. there are still people in the UK who have an issue with the MMR jab. the scientist who wrote the report that linked that to autism has (if memory serves) repeatedly rejected the idea that children should not have the MMR jab. it's a parent's right not to have their kids jabbed but its the kids who have to go through the disease that's mostly been eradicated. shrug. sucks to be them i guess.
So why are we not ramping the whole country up to Tier 4 now, rather than leaving it to see if it gets as bad as we think it will first?
That's what Scotland is doing from Boxing Day
But I’d be amazed if there isn’t the full spectrum of activity out there, from people who’ve been 100% dedicated to those who’ve gone out of their way to flout the advice at any given opportunity
Yes but this thread is hardly a representative sample of the UK population! Self selecting for those who are taking it seriously....and a few with the opposite view who want to stir things up.
paul0, that was more a point to chrispo wondering if everyone thought they were complying with the spirit of the rules. Obviously they aren't, what with people actively protesting lockdowns et al.
it’s not been fast tracked per se
I don’t have peer-reviewed evidence of this to hand, but I’m pretty certain drugs are not normally tested for less than a year. I’m also pretty sure that if they only needed testing for a few weeks to pick up long-term side-effects, that’s what would happen as standard. Because that’s basic economics, which I do know a thing or two about.
So somebody has weighed it all up and decided yes they’re safe and effective enough given the situation. That is not science. It’s not absolute. It’s a judgement.
Convince me of why your evidence is better than the peer reviewed though, I’m open to listen.
So people just have to blindly trust what they’re told without questioning anything unless they can come up with peer-reviewed evidence to the contrary? It’s a bit Big Brother.
I don’t think you need to be an expert to have valid questions or opinions.
So much is riding on these jabs. It’s not unheard of for governments to lean on regulators and scientists.
I’d be most interested in hearing how we know a vaccine that has been tested for less than a year will actually work and will not cause harm five or ten years down the line. And why we should trust this government or big pharma when they say it’s safe and effective.
Medicines, including vaccines can never be proven safe. They are approved for use based on benefits outweighing the risks. When either of these change, then approval may be withdrawn. Effectiveness is proven based on trials with a precise but limited objective set by the FDA and EMA, and this feeds into “the label” regarding what can be claimed. You won’t see any of the vaccines claiming they reduce transmission. Why not? Because it was not tested in the trials.
What they can claim is that symptomatic infections within a relatively short period after vaccination are reduced by 90-95%. Duration of protection is not known, hence there have been no claims on that either. If you want to know the most up to date information on any approved medicine, google “FDA prescribing information”. THIS is the thing that matters. Not peer review, not media articles, not social media. The prescribing information is a summary of the Label. In the EU look for the “SMPC”. The agency review materials are public documents. I use them for competitor drugs all the time.
Equally with regards to risk of not vaccinating, about 10% of people with Covid seem to have persistent symptoms. Cells expressing ACR2 in the kidneys and cardiovascular system are also infected, lungs are not the only organ of interest. What are the long-term consequences for allowing an infection? We don’t know.
So the benefit risk must be weighed carefully based on available and evolving data. Everyone being dosed will be followed for adverse events and this could change approval over time. Trials will continue to asses duration of protection of individuals. Infection rates in areas of vaccine roll out will be monitored. We will see. What pharma will say is that based on the 20,000 administrations, with a follow up of put to six months, the incidence of adverse events is x%. For the mRNA vaccines, severe Grade 3 events is about 8%. There were no Grade 4 (hospitalised) adverse events. Or Grade 5 (deaths due to drug). But equally nobody dosed with vaccine was hospitalised with COVID19 (unlike placebo).
If you want more details about the approval process, just ask. I’ve been developing medicines for over 20 years. I’ve taken over 15 drugs into the clinic, sat opposite the Feds arguing science, and just one I invented was launched this year.
So people just have to blindly trust what they’re told without questioning anything unless they can come up with peer-reviewed evidence to the contrary? It’s a bit Big Brother.
I don’t think you need to be an expert to have valid questions or opinions.
Question away. But listen to the answers.
So somebody has weighed it all up and decided yes they’re safe and effective enough given the situation. That is not science. It’s not absolute. It’s a judgement.
That's pretty much the definition of science; look at the evidence, weigh the pros and cons, get peers of a similar standing to you to review it.
But there's no point because they're all in the employ of the government or something.
So again; you are right that you can question but what do you want as quality of answers that would convince you?
I’m pretty certain drugs are not normally tested for less than a year
you are correct. the 3 phases of trials have been conducted pretty much simultaneously from what i understand. there are no shortages of test subjects. there is no shortage of funding. there is no shortage of very well qualified people trying to figure this one out. it's not niche.
I’m also pretty sure that if they only needed testing for a few weeks to pick up long-term side-effects, that’s what would happen as standard
again - correct. but typically whole economies are not shut down when people suffer from MS (to choose a very real and nasty affliction at random) which is why the same level of resource is not directed at treatment. there are known effects to shutting down economies that you yourself have brought up. so now we've established what the known effects are of doing that vs. possible long term effects of a vaccine. place your bet.
I don’t have peer-reviewed evidence of this to hand, but I’m pretty certain drugs are not normally tested for less than a year. I’m also pretty sure that if they only needed testing for a few weeks to pick up long-term side-effects, that’s what would happen as standard. Because that’s basic economics, which I do know a thing or two about.
Have you googled to learn any of the reasons behind why it's been possible to develop the vaccine this fast? Because one of the key reasons is definitively basic economics.
@ Del,
A good summary.