Forum menu
So many busy lapping up the posts from TiRed without question when it is pretty obvious he is just a paid government shill.
Aside from polemic, do you have any points to make? I’m always happy to address factual arguments.
For example, what’s 0.5% of 66M people? And that’s deaths only. What’s 5% for longer lasting morbidity?
And for the record, I have not in the past, and will never accept a single penny from HMG and have provided my time and analytic efforts on top of my usual tax-paying employment.
Thanks, again, TiRed.
Don’t confuse the point with your “facts” Kryton!
Oh sorry. I'm still reeling from arsebiscuits expose that is that the Daily Mail is heavily censored.
and have provided my time and analytic efforts on top of my usual tax-paying employment
And it's been massively appreciated! Thank you.
Contender for “best first post” surely?
Sounded similar to another recent "first post" we had on here a little while back.
I don't even bother engaging until they produce some facts to back their points up. Otherwise it's just pointless waffle
And for the record, I have not in the past, and will never accept a single penny from HMG and have provided my time and analytic efforts on top of my usual tax-paying employment.
Exactly what a shill in the pay of the government would say. It's so obvious to me now, thanks arsebiscuits, the scales are falling from my eyes!
Now, where's that cup of kool aid. Nuts and bananas flavoured for me.
And it’s been massively appreciated! Thank you.
Completely agree - thank you!
Festive bubble question - confused.com
So if son lives with partner.
Partner needs to go home to elderly mother to form a support bubble.
That leaves son alone.
A/ Can he then come home to form a support bubble at his parents home not mixing.
B/ Can this be for multiple days as its a bubble or only Christmas Day?
The rules seem difficult to fully understand the term Bubble and even the Gov website contains old info.
arsebiscuits
Free Member
My neighbour and friend died of Covid last night. On behalf of all his friends and family, go **** yourself you stupid ****.
but genuinely it’s a thought process that is out there and I have no idea where to start with debunking it.
Unlike many on here, I reckon ignoring them or ridiculing them is exactly the sort of action which results in things like brexit, Boris as PM, and probably the failure of any rational plan to deal with covid. These views are indeed out there, and not as isolated as many think. Ignorance breeds ignorance, and dismissing the people who hold these views only entrenches and amplfies their views which results in more people agreeing with them. Utlimately calliing someone an idiot and not engaging with them is the easy way out, and it solves bugger all.
That's terrine dark-side, I'm sorry
A/ Can he then come home to form a support bubble at his parents home not mixing.
B/ Can this be for multiple days as its a bubble or only Christmas Day?The rules seem difficult to fully understand the term Bubble and even the Gov website contains old info.
Almost everyone I know seems to be using the support bubble to justify having parents or kids home for Xmas period
I think lockdown fatigue + the last minute rule changes have left many people in a similar position & just opting to use 'common sense'
dismissing the people who hold these views only entrenches and amplfies their views which results in more people agreeing with them
There's truth in that... but engaging can result in mainstreaming... and the media do engage with the ideas these people are pushing.... but it's never enough... any move to giving balance between truth and lies only results in those lies not going far enough for their audience... and ideas and positions even more distant from the truth fight for attention.
TLDR: give them an inch, and even when they take a mile, it's still not enough
Utlimately calliing someone an idiot and not engaging with them is the easy way out, and it solves bugger all.
Daz can you honestly say you think someone who signed up just to troll the thread is worth engaging with, he's obviously just going to shitpost & run
Anyone made the mistake of engaging with "flat earthers"...? Try it... see how it goes...
Try it… see how it goes…
I'm guessing the conversation goes around in circles.
Daz can you honestly say you think someone who signed up just to troll the thread is worth engaging with
No. I'm not talking about him in particular, more the fact that these widespread irrational views of the world are a big problem which need to be engaged with. Dismissing them out of hand, ignoring them, and ridiculing those who voice them is not going to make them go away.
Festive bubble question – confused.com
So if son lives with partner.Partner needs to go home to elderly mother to form a support bubble.
That leaves son alone.
A/ Can he then come home to form a support bubble at his parents home not mixing.
B/ Can this be for multiple days as its a bubble or only Christmas Day?The rules seem difficult to fully understand the term Bubble and even the Gov website contains old info.
Does the elderly mother live alone - i.e. is she the single to their 'family' in a support bubble setup? And is this a permanent move for her or just for a few days, it's not clear from the way you type.
Your son does not usually live alone - he can't be the strap on single to another household to make a 'support bubble'. He could come to your house for the day. That's it.
But millions will ignore so make of it what you will.
dazh +1
But I can't work out how. Shouting "idiot!!" doesn't work. Engaging with facts doesn't work. I just don't know.
Dismissing them out of hand
Go ahead. Find a way of not dismissing them, without legitimising them. It can be done face to face, given plenty of time, and support, sometimes... but trying to do so "on the internet" is a mugs game... you're welcome to try... best of luck.
these widespread irrational views of the world
That sounds quite dismissive.
No. I’m not talking about him in particular, more the fact that these widespread irrational views of the world are a big problem which need to be engaged with. Dismissing them out of hand, ignoring them, and ridiculing those who voice them is not going to make them go away.
sooooooooo....... how would you do that then? Got an example here - have at it
Anyone made the mistake of engaging with “flat earthers“
I went to a great Skeptics in the Pub talk by Michael Marshall who did exactly that including going to the UK’s first ever Flat Earth convention. He said they were very well informed and had credible but wrong arguments to counter e.g. ship disappearing over the horizon. In itself that's a good argument for not engaging unless you're fully prepared (a Brexit example of someone well enough prepared is Femi Oluwole).
Not sure that it's possible to change someone's mind with facts once it's become a "belief".
how would you do that then? Got an example here – have at it
Well you can't do it on an internet forum for a start. You need to speak to them in person. Listen, ask them questions, get to the bottom of whatever underlying reason they have for holding those views. I've had long involved conversations with everyone from white supremacist brexiteers, flat earthers and 'evolution is just a theory' christian fundamentalists, and I got on with all them without needing to insult or ridicule them. I'm not saying I changed their views but they at least listened to mine, because I did the same, and that's where a solution starts.
Well you can’t do it on an internet forum for a start.
I agree.
I read https://lockdownsceptics.org/ daily. The position pieces are normally reasonable, sometimes salient. Today's is a good example - "show us the evidence", basically. With a bit of grandstanding from Carl Henegan. The comments range from scientific debate (now much rarer, sadly) to "The Great Reset" and microchips in the vaccine stuff. I tend not to bother much any more. Science is sceptical by nature. But there are now some pretty clear foundations. There is of course, a lot of ignorance and misinformation too. I'm always happy to point people in the direction of the correct information, where available (and almost everything is in the public domain).
I can't avoid the person entirely, that's not possible. I can't find it in a search, but has this thread dealt with 'The Great Barrington Declaration'? That's the root cause of the conversation I'm stuck with, though I think it's grown tentacles.
so face to face..... lots of time, effort etc, but ultimately no difference.
But this is what we have to do yes? But not on an Internet forum obviously
has this thread dealt with ‘The Great Barrington Declaration’?
Yes... we have... I suggest "Independent Sage" for articles and videos discussing that.
https://www.independentsage.org
They work hard at getting their contributions onto national media though... so if you're engaging with the "mainstream media and scientists are colluding against us" type, they'll probably be dismissive about what this, or any, group of experts are attempting to inform the public about.
Whilst Mr biscuits is obviously having a troll it does make me think what kind of **** thinks it's appropriate to do that on a topic such as this..
I guess they are most probably a fairly unloved character, a bit bitter at the world. If so stands to reason they don't care about their elderly parents dying of covid, as they probably abandoned him as a child, or worse still subjected him to years of abuse.
My guess is that despite all the bravado he's not left the house in 9 months, not because he's scared, but because he's got nothing better to do with his time. I imagine he probably had his dick in his hand as he frantically typed that message out...bursting with excitement at the though of the attention it'll generate, attention he's been so starved off throughout his miserable life..
Then again, he may just be a cxxx..
I don't want to engage with the troll but I have to make a point on this:
So many busy lapping up the posts from TiRed without question when it is pretty obvious he is just a paid government shill.
Aside from polemic, do you have any points to make? I’m always happy to address factual arguments.
For example, what’s 0.5% of 66M people? And that’s deaths only. What’s 5% for longer lasting morbidity?
And for the record, I have not in the past, and will never accept a single penny from HMG and have provided my time and analytic efforts on top of my usual tax-paying employment.
When this thread was just starting to get into it's stride and TiRed first started to provide analysis and insight into what was going on I was not aware of who he is and what weight his comments carried. To make sure I wasn't being 'brainwashed' or just getting duff information I did a bit of general digging and researched the figures myself. It all checked out as much as I could tell, every time new info was posted here for months on end so I knew I could trust what he was posting. When the further info about who he worked for and the subsequent award came out I knew beyond doubt that we, as a group on here, were very privileged to have someone who knew what they were talking about dedicating their free time to helping us understand the situation, even responding and engaging in debate about his findings and actively helping others increase their knowledge on how to analyse the data themselves. For that I an and continue to be grateful. So to come on here and call him a govt shill is a bit of a dick move.
As for the cancer treatments being stopped? My dad is one of those patients so I have first-hand knowledge of what is happening. He has had treatments delayed at times but only when he is coping reasonably well. Whenever he has been suffering he has been seen immediately. He may have had the odd appointment bumped back a few days when they have had to prioritise other patients who are worse off but that happens anyway. It's also coming into the winter season that always pushes the NHS to full stretch so delays around now are normal. The only time my dad has had a major delay in treatment was back in June where the team treating him switched hospitals so had a 2 week period of isolation as they were moving from a hospital that had covid cases to a new one that was covid-free, a completely understandable and correct decision.
So this is speaking directly to aresbiscuit: You're wrong on both of these counts, by a ridiculous margin. Please just don't post any more as you are only making yourself look like an idiot. Any other posts you make will be ignored by me and many others on here.
I’m guessing the Arsebiscuits post is simply a trolling post from an existing user.
Can this please be moved to another thread - an “is the coronavirus real” or similar as this thread has just gone from an intelligent discussion on a serious issue to a load of nonesense.
lots of time, effort etc
It's just talking to people. Maybe that's the root problem. No one talks to anyone any more, we just assign a label and move on, happy in our bubbles. I don't know about you but I find that pretty boring.
No one talks to anyone any more
Yes, we do... now let this thread get back on topic, please.
It’s funny, a few new 1st time posters in the last few weeks all spouting the same guff. I wonder what tub thumping forum they are on that has discovered a new enemy in STW?
No doubt he believes every word Giuliani & Powell spout about the US election too.
If so stands to reason they don’t care about their elderly parents dying of covid
Well lots of people will not feel so involved if they don't have elderly parents.
Lots of people have lost their incomes and ability to feed their own children.
It’s funny, a few new 1st time posters in the last few weeks all spouting the same guff. I wonder what tub thumping forum they are on that has discovered a new enemy in STW?
why would another forum care (unless its a personal attack on TiRed).
I think its an existing user who has made a new profile. exsee was rallying quite vocally about the "establishment" and "know it alls" only a few days ago, and while the language is slightly different, its the same basic sentiment.
When the further info about who he worked for and the subsequent award came out
Tell me.
It is somewhere in the thread, but he is a senior fellow at gsk, is involved (a high level I believe) in the spi-m modelling group advising the government and sage and was awarded an award during the queen's latest honours (I believe an mbe - but apologies to tired as I can't remember).
Indeed. Him having these credentials actually helped me persuade my dad to take extra care over the summer as he was 'fed up about hearing what I had read on a stupid bike forum'. Once I explained to him who the person suppling us with information was dad started to take it more seriously, looking at what is happening now I am so glad it had this effect.
Dr Daren Austin PhD OBE
Senior Fellow
GlaxoSmithKline
I'm on linkedin if you want to chase me. I'm on Facebook and (shudder) twitter, but seldom post there. My day job is developing new medicines in multiple therapeutic areas. One of those potential medicines is an antibody for COVID19. I don't work on vaccines, but follow them closely, along with all other COVID19 therapies. I also don't post anonymously. I sit on SPI-M but only post public information.
I'm also back on a bike - two hours on Zwift so far this week has been an experience - an FTP of 175W is a long way to go...Rollers today.
‘The Great Barrington Declaration’? That’s the root cause of the conversation I’m stuck with
Hannah, the challenge with the GBD is that "protect the elderly" sounds attractive, but in a nation that regularly fails to do so, why would we expect to be any different for a new pathogen? If this was Norway, which seldom has excess influenza mortality year-on-year, there might be a sensible discussion. The UK is a country that does not fare well from influenza, and does not fare well from COVID. It is a non-starter. The debate has moved on. the long-promised "immunity" has not emerged with the speed that proponents suggested. The null hypothesis assumptions look valid still - very transmissible, low existing immunity, pathogenic, significant hospital burden for those over 45, high mortality in the elderly. it's not flu.
No doubt he believes every word Giuliani & Powell spout about the US election too.
He? Could easily be a she...
Many thanks.
and the bed-wetter types
Others can give you polite rebuttals to some of your points. I think you should come out from behind your cowardly new forum name and engage with us. Only then should we indulge you with the attention you crave. You are a scared little coward.
I think the correct phrase is 'cowering behind your pathetic new forum name'.
Could be wrong, but I've a fair idea who this is.
People are going round cowering behind pathetic masks that don’t even work, and behaving like Covid is going to kill us all, when in reality it’s not that much worse than seasonal flu. Oh and where has that seasonal flu gone by the way? Have masks and social distancing magically stopped it’s transmission but somehow not stopped the transmission of Covid?
good lord theres some idiocy and contradiction in this series of sentences.
If you are going to argue with people like TiRed you need to do a lot better than a childish foul mouthed tirade. Everyone knows the link between lockdown and mental health. Everyone knows the lockdown will have long lasting economic effects. But as has been explained very patiently on here, if you do nothing then the NHS is overwhelmed to the point that people will die from easily treatable illnesses and injuries. Many of these people will be economically active. It's not just a question of keeping old people alive at the cost of poverty for the young.
I would also like to thank TiRed for his very clearly written and easily understandable posts. It's been very reassuring to have information from someone who knows what he's talking about and I have also used his information to convince others of the need to adhere to the rules and persuade some to be positive rather than sceptical about the vaccine. Your input on here is invaluable and very much appreciated.
I like arsebiscuits and his predictable rants, could I put a leash on him and take him for a walk?
I'd also like to extend my thanks to TiRed. Not sure if I ever did in lockdown 1 or when he got his award.
Your analysis and explanations near single handedly helped me through a very tough time in April. As an emotionally barren/analytical person; having someone explain the science to me was far more help than anything else.
Very easy to label someone you disagree with as a conspiracy theorist isn’t it.
Actually I think we are labelling you a troll.
Arsebiscuits is funny
Pretends he wants serious debate, but just chick's out loads of insults!
It's just a way to select scrutiny from any of his 'arguments', such as they are
I would also like to thank TiRed for his very clearly written and easily understandable posts.
+1
why would another forum care (unless its a personal attack on TiRed).
Some sort of meh.
Well, arsebiscuits has got me convinced.
Of what, I'm not yet sure...
Another massive thanks to TiRed from me. 🙂
I’m also back on a bike – two hours on Zwift so far this week has been an experience – an FTP of 175W is a long way to go…Rollers today.
Wow!
Having seen some of your rides on Strava including the fixed gear M25 loops that's a hell of a knock back you've had due to Covid. Hope you're on the mend soon and thanks for all of the helpful posts.
I see that the new strain is causing 60% of cases in South Wales so I guess that explains why Wales have done quite so badly (although personally I think we unlocked too much after the too short firebreak). If you look at the maps the increases in the SE are similar magnitude to the S. Wales increases.
I also think I read that a similar mutation was found in South Africa
Hope you’re on the mend soon and thanks for all of the helpful posts.
What’s 125 watts among friends 🙂 my club mates will be happy with me at the back in the spring. Nine months with little more than gentle walking is going to take its toll. It comes back pretty fast with training. Could have been a lot worse.
https://m.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/coronavirus-france-boris-johnson-conference_uk_5fe0949dc5b6a7df66663ac2?utm_source=upday&utm_medium=referral
Will he announce another lockdown?
We really are the basketcase of the world right now aren't we! Essentially the whole world is scared of catching the new strain from people travelling from here to them so they're all pulling the drawbridges up. We're going to be in the wilderness for a long time now!
(although personally I think we unlocked too much after the too short firebreak)
We were backed into a corner on having a short one as Westminster refused to release funds to help support businesses that had to close. That forced Drakeford to guarantee it would only be for 2 weeks and he then had to release everyone enough for businesses to reopen. Even when England went into their firebreak and released the money he couldn't go back on those promises se we were properly stitched up by Boris and co. We're paying the price for that now.
Well, looking at StuE’s link… if MPs do return to parliament, I hope they do so remotely.
We’re going to be in the wilderness for a long time now
Doubt it..I see 2 scenarios..
Either..the mutation has already made it a way to the continent, In which case within 2 weeks not letting us in will make sod all difference
Or..
Another mutation will pop up soon enough in Europe that is just as contagious
What we really need is a mutation which is far more contagious but much less severe, thus providing some level of immunjty with very little illness. How likely is that to occur?
From an evolutionary perspective, wouldn't all viruses want that outcome?
How likely is that to occur?
Very. Eventually. But we don't have to wait for millions to die waiting for that happen... we can (and should) contain any outbreaks, and develop and deploy vaccines and other prophylactic measures. We live in the modern world, let's make use of the advances we have made.
Very. Eventually. But we don’t have to wait for millions to die waiting for that happen… we can (and should) contain any outbreaks, and develop and deploy vaccines and other prophylactic measures. We live in the modern world, let’s make use of the advances we have made
from a purely academic perspective, is lockdown/facemasks/distancing etc helping or hindering the natural progression towards a milder virus?
From an evolutionary perspective, wouldn’t all viruses want that outcome?
A virus can't 'want' an outcome, it isnt a living organism, any mutation is just random mistakes when it replicates. The more contagious mutations are more successful at infecting therefore spreading they are
The two most depressing sentences right now are;
1 Boris is taking personal charge
2. Boris to give an updated COVID statement
there’s a number 2* headed our way at 5 pm apparently
*both metaphorically and literally
helping or hindering
It's saving millions of lives. Waiting for nature to thin the herd and eventually, hopefully, do its thing doesn't need consideration... this is 2020, not 1920*.
[* fourth wave of Spanish Flu, just in case you didn't get the reference ]
We’re going to be in the wilderness for a long time now
I’m not convinced. Detection of the new variant Y501 is less reliable by conventional pcr. Thw string of amino acids use to prime the amplification reaction, and hence detect the presence of viral RNA, might miss the change and there is also a deletion as well, which means that the primer may not latch on at all. Multiple primers are used for the teat, however.
Hence it might just be catch up. Other companies have the strain but have not need detecting it reliably. We shall see.
Companies or countries?
Living in the north kent hot spot I don't think any practical lockdown will work.
In mid September we had some of the lowest number of cases in the country 2nd from bottom. Cases started to rise before half term. Half term school closed cases rising faster then lockdown school open cases rising faster, then tier 3 cases rising faster. Tier 4 ?
Kind of feel that this is unstoppable now even with a national lockdown similar to March.
@kentishman similar here in Bucks. Zero cases in my girls' school then a rapid rise to school shut due to the number of staff having COVID or isolating within 6 weeks.
This summer's exams need to be replaced by teacher assessment and until we have sufficient vaccination remote learning (except for those that need to be in school for a good reason).
I still hope it's not unstoppable but we need to do what we can. Not shutting schools has become a party political thing now - we need to rise above that.
Hospitals appear to be driving new cases again so we may need to modify the vaccination strategy - perhaps it's time to switch to front line staff and vaccinating anyone coming in for elective treatment?
Companies or countries?
Countries - wrote it on my phone!
@TiRed, do you have any insight as to why much of the modelling is still so disastrously wrong? I see the Cambridge BSU group have just updated their estimate of R in London...to 1.1. It's clearly nonsense and yet this stuff is pushed into SAGE on a regular basis.
https://www.mrc-bsu.cam.ac.uk/now-casting/
When my models generate palpable nonsense I look for why they are wrong, I don't just publish the results as a forecast that others are expected to take seriously.
Mrs Nobeer getting her vaccination tomorrow, a little good news, gave me a bit of a feeling of positivity today.
Hopefully not too long before she starts vaccinating folks herself. 🙏🏻
Good to hear @nobeer I take it that she got a negative test result then? I know that you were waiting on one
A bit of a positive slant on things over the last few months... `The kids are alright'
ONS report shows student compliance was very high and higher than the general population
Although unfortunately many people and particularly Conservative voters think it is all somebody else's (the public's) fault, rather than the Government losing public messaging over the Barnard Castle debacle or indeed just a consequence of the infectability of this new strain: https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1341056675034374148
Aye, she did Tom, took over 48hrs but got there in the end. She was a tad frustrated as the wee yin's test was back in 18 hours, crabbit wee bugger that she is! 😆
WTF is the press conference for/about?!
Yeah right! Our current approach is why the UK has one of the worst death statistics going, far worse than Sweden even.
The fact that the UK's response has been poor, does not negate the fact that we have had a response. If you judge our poor performance, think how much worse it would be with no intervention. The countries you should be following most closely are Norway and Finland. These countries have traditionally had little excess winter mortality. Sweden chose a slightly different route, with a plan to higher infection and greater immunity. Sadly, there has been little evidence of the presence of that immunity as restrictions were lifted.
Oh and whilst we’re at it why not choose to shaft our economy in the process? The GBD does not propose this. And it is a choice.
A functioning economy requires a healthcare service that can treat the infirm. The mortality noted so far is in line with the age at which treatment has not been given. Whilst the media has put minds at rest regarding dying with comorbidities, enormous numbers of previously healthy people (of working age) have been admitted to hospitals and then ITUs. The fact is, they have done a remarkable job of managing morbidity. What do you think would happen when there is no room in the HDU/ITU for those in their 70's. Then their 60's? And (gulp) their 50's? At a blunt level, when pregnant women start dying due to lack of treatment, what then (pregnancy is a comorbidity that increases relative risk 4x).
That’s of course assuming that lockdowns do actually save lives, or do they just serve to kick the can down the road whilst making the poorest in society even poorer still?
By your own admission, roughly 300,000 UK citizens are expected to die, whether that be over the course of one, two or perhaps three respiratory seasons. In 2020 there have been almost 100,000 deaths than in 2019. About a third of the above total. Lockdowns reduce transmission, which reduces admissions and deaths. Removal of lockdown has seen a universal rise in transmission, admissions, and deaths. There is currently no evidence of a significant effect of immunity. That will be the role of vaccination.
Oh and where has that seasonal flu gone by the way? Have masks and social distancing magically stopped it’s transmission but somehow not stopped the transmission of Covid?
No it reduces them both. COVID19 is about twice as transmissible as influenza, and about four times as pathogenic. Prevention of COVID19 has a greater effect on influenza transmission. Influenza is a disease of children with significant morbidity. Admissions of young children to hospital exceed that of the elderly.
Imagine if we had spent the £400 billion we have so far spunked up the wall on Covid on something worthwhile.
We'd be Norway - too late. They have a fund of Eu50,000 per capita from their North Sea Oil returns. Great healthcare and negligible excess mortality in 2020. Hindsight is wonderful. But the UK was already seen to be woefully unprepared for a pandemic. And found out.
"It's only when the tide goes out that you learn who has been swimming naked"
Wonder what the £ per QUALY saved is? Bet it’s more than the recommended £30k.
Ask a Health Economist. But factor in avoided morbidity costs for the 10% affected with longer-term disease and the opportunity costs of a healthcare meltdown on general increased mortality in the presence of limit healthcare. Pandemics don't care for Qualy's, but of course it won't be "cost effective".
Having just come back to this thread after some considerable time, looking at the last page and noticing comments about @arsebiscuits post, I’ve gone forward and read it.
Christ on a pogo stick! Arse biscuits is about right, typical right-wing conspiracy shit that gets spouted by Republicans in the US. Practically quoting the QAnon playbook verbatim.
What an asshole. 💩
WTF is the press conference for/about?!
Anything other than the immediate issue by the looks of it.
Blimey, you lot can be nasty. This does kinda confirm what I was saying the other week. Arsebiscuits is a bit ranty yet there are some fair points in there. But everyone just piles in to ridicule him. Dissent is verboten.
The experts haven’t done a brilliant job so far. And it’s just too easy to blame the government. Labour have backed the Tories all the way, and every other country seems to have made the same mistakes anyway. There is a worrying lack of critical scrutiny of both government and science. The BBC just trots out the government line. Who is putting out the balanced info that we really need, from between the two extremes of government lies and nutty fantasies?
I see a lot of bullying and arrogance on this thread. It’s a hard time for everyone, so a bit of tolerance would be in order.