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that defied rules?
I'm not sure last night's announcement had been made law - get a bit confused between announcements, advice and actual (theoretical) enforceable laws.
Kelvin beat me to it. How can this govt prosecute thousands of folk for essentially doing the same thing that Cummings did
Did two wrongs ever make a right?
*slow handclap for the Londoners*
You mean “some people deciding to do some travelling from London”. Dont inaccurately generalise like that.
That video of St Pancras station is manic. Prior to Covid I used to travel there a lot. That looks significantly busier than it usually is at rush hour!
How did they do that then? I suspect they didn’t have the mechanism quick enough to limit online ticket sales
Weren't trains running on reduced capacity for social distancing?
Unfortunately FU I'm off seems to have over ruled any don't travel out of tier three restrictions. Given the exodus removing tier one would seem to be a sensible measure. Perhaps even moving most areas to tier three.
Here was me thinking the transmission risk out of the SE was going to be from the large numbers of trucks drivers held up at the ports and in the lorry parks.
A much better way to deal with it might have been to bleed in the restrictions over 48 hours and offer free changes to other trains / routes over that time. But that would require thinking ahead and coordination.
Delaying the planned engineering works out of Kings Cross for an extra day may also have helped.
There's talk of other countries banning all UK visitors (I think the Netherlands already has) but suspect that it's a case of bolting the door after the horse has left. If this variant spreads more aggressively then I can't see why it won't quickly become the dominant version.
At this point I'd test every international traveller before they fly and again on arrival, and possibly a third time in a few days.
Given the exodus removing tier one would seem to be a sensible measure. Perhaps even moving most areas to tier three.
I've already asked why everywhere in England isn't now Tier 4. This is going to be too little, too late, AGAIN!
Unfortunately FU I’m off seems to have over ruled any don’t travel out of tier three restrictions.
In fairness to Londoners, you don't know how many people wanted to leave, had Christmas plans, and then saw that scrum and stayed home. Because they aren't in the picture.
In this, you only see the arseholes because everyone else is at home. There are dickheads out and about where we live but the FB community page is full of people supporting the regs and offering to organise help etc.
Anyway. Question for the stats-enabled: here in Cardiff, what proportion of people in Asda at any one time are likely to have COVID? We have 625 ish new cases per day, but assuming those positive tests are not shopping in Asda how many asymptomatic carriers would there be?
are you worried that the mRNA ‘way’ is not the way forward?
No I’m not worried yet. Polyclonal antibody responses from the vaccine will afford some protection
@thecaptain apologies I mixed up the ONS modelled cases with those reported as cases daily. The 2% is of all infections identified by ONS not the reported cases I can believe that only a fifth of all infections are identified by testing. It was late 😉
Question for the stats-enabled: here in Cardiff, what proportion of people in Asda at any one time are likely to have COVID?
About 1 in 80 folk have COVID and a third of those are asymptomatic. assume 1500 people in a normal sized Asda 1 out of 240 have it and don't know it, so about 6/7 people...Lets hope the folk who know that they have it, aren't going to Asda, eh?
I’ve already asked why everywhere in England isn’t now Tier 4. This is going to be too little, too late, AGAIN!
The new super mutant ninja covid strain must be identified by sequencing , which takes longer that an rtpcr test, though we do have huge sequencing capacity here
There will still be a lag between finding, testing for & reporting this strain
I bet this strain has already spread to the whole of England, people have been leaving London all week (including MPs) . It will be present in Wales & Scotland too and if it really is spreading quicker then good luck containing it.
Its also believed to spread more in kids than original strain, so at least schools are all closed now, but will they be reopening in Jan.
I think I just read Hancock said tier 4 might have to stay in place until vaccine roll out 😭
(couldn't get an image link to work)
Yes, it is already present in Scotland. We are all in Tier 4 (other than the islands).
About 1 in 80 folk have COVID and a third of those are asymptomatic. assume 1500 people in a normal sized Asda 1 out of 240 have it and don’t know it, so about 6/7 people…Lets hope the folk who know that they have it, aren’t going to Asda, eh?
Your average Asda has a huge high roof & plenty of air circulation, with masks & handwashing should be as safe as it gets
The ‘Fair Play’ was due as this was not last minute (Eid had hours notice of cancellation).
Eid did not get cancelled. Whether through design or incompetence the restrictions were announced before Eid but only passed into law afterwards. They've been slightly quicker with these changes, they came into force at 7am this morning rather than midnight as announced.
should be as safe as it gets
@kimbers, yes absolutely! sorry, wasn't trying to imply it was dangerous or anything, If you've a mask on, and don't touch everything, it's a safe as anywhere right now.
They've finally published the new SI. For those complaining about people leaving tier 4 areas there is nothing to stop it in the legislation.
About 1 in 80 folk have COVID and a third of those are asymptomatic. assume 1500 people in a normal sized Asda 1 out of 240 have it and don’t know it, so about 6/7 people…Lets hope the folk who know that they have it, aren’t going to Asda, eh?
What about people who are asymptomatic but isolating because they've been told to by our world beating track and trace system.
For those complaining about people leaving tier 4 areas
They were leaving tier 3. Tier 4 came into effect this morning. The stay at home, with exemptions, is pretty clear. We’re not going anywhere other than for a short walk.
What about people who are asymptomatic but isolating because they’ve been told to by our world beating track and trace system.
Its the 20% of them t&t is missing that's the problem
I bet this strain has already spread to the whole of England,
It has, a smaller but significant proportion of tests a week ago in other regions were already positive for the new variant, according to Vallance. Given how quickly it has moved from 20% of known cases to 60% of cases, it's fair to say that it will probably be present, and starting to out-compete the old version right now in most areas. The mass exodus will just make sure of that. I'm sure that it hasn't stopped at the English border either.
They were leaving tier 3. Tier 4 came into effect this morning.
A lot of people been leaving London all week, my train home ends in crewe, I only went in Monday & Thursday, but both days on the way home trains were busier than they have been for a while & lots of people with big holdalls etc
Main difference in the announcements yesterday. BJ was still waffle and hope for common sense. Sturgeon was talking about legislation.
This new strain has been tracked back to 20th Sept in Kent.
Kelvin beat me to it. How can this govt prosecute thousands of folk for essentially doing the same thing that Cummings did
Did two wrongs ever make a right?
No, but after all ministers lined up to defend the actions of Cummings when he fled London thinking he had the virus, against the rules, the government can’t be surprised when some of the population who think they don’t have the virus leave London when it isn’t against the rules. They made this mess. Actions have consequences in government.
Your average Asda has a huge high roof & plenty of air circulation, with masks & handwashing should be as safe as it gets
You would have to be unlucky, or stand for an extended period next to the wrong person near the checkout. It's as safe as it can be, but Christmas shopping at supermarkets can be a poorly controlled scrum at the best of times. Going in the middle of the night if it's a 24 hour store would be my strategy.
This new strain has been tracked back to 20th Sept in Kent.
My instinct when I saw the hotspot in Kent pop up was the prison population on the Isle of Sheppey.
Main difference in the announcements yesterday. BJ was still waffle and hope for common sense. Sturgeon was talking about legislation.
Helped by the fact that ScotGov already had a Tier 4, the possibility of which seemed to have escaped the Westminster lot.
This new strain has been tracked back to 20th Sept in Kent.
All them truckers milling about in cafes in the Brexit tailbacks....
Brexit tailbacks….
See we are net exporters after all!
MoreCash
I think a few people are giving him way too much credit – the Christmas relaxation looked wrong to anyone with half a brain a month ago, the data of rising infections and new strains of Covid was public at the beginning of the week.
He is continuing to fudge it at the last minute, thus allowing it to spread, for deaths to keep increasing, for longer stricter lockdowns to be required, and to **** up the economy completely. As he has done from the start.
My observation seems to be that every failed fudge just leads to less compliance with rules anyway.
Partly time/fatigue plays a part but the excuses people find will be/are largely based on past failures.
It's been pretty obvious that measures were not working for a long time but the last 2 weeks here in Tier-4 (Woking) has seen exponential growth of people I know about in self isolation.
Suddenly lots of panic now about a new strain but a virus mutating is hardly news but it seems somewhat irrelevant anyway because those people are based on positive cases.
Class of 30 sometihng... and whatever measures... was 7 by end of term in <2weeks.
Obviously something isn't working when you consider the virus was still spreading with <<1/3 of the population in the same space. Perhaps that's 'the' new strain? Perhaps it's something else? It shouldn't matter ... it shows whatever is in place isn't working.
but a virus mutating is hardly news
But it was though wasn't it, and thats half the problem - bloody great headliness about a mutant virus plus "you going to be Locked in after midnight" are a main component cause of the exodus.
The only question now is when we're sending in Snake Plissken to rescue Boris. 🙂
theotherjonv
What about people who are asymptomatic but isolating because they’ve been told to by our world beating track and trace system.
What about those who already self isolated several times due to our world beating track and trace?
I can't imagine their confidence in the system grows each time.
You mean “some people deciding to do some travelling from London”. Dont inaccurately generalise like that.
Fair point. I'll slow clap the numpties.
Yes, it is already present in Scotland. We are all in Tier 4 (other than the islands).
Not according to https://www.gov.scot/check-local-covid-level/
We’re in level 1 until 00.01 26th December..
Pretty hassling for Hancock to say tier 3 was working until this new strain came along
Pretty hassling for Hancock to say tier 3 was working until this new strain came along
Pretty disturbing if we have a health minister who wasn't expecting a virus to mutate.
Overall it's the now normal too little, too late... and as I said above new strain or not restrictions were not working so doing nothing was not a real option... but they did it anyway
Can anyone explain what's the difference, if any, between a new strain and a mutation? Is the same thing? And what/where is the evidence that this new strain is more virulent than the 'normal' one?
Cheers,
FM.
Cannot get this quote to work.
But to the comment saying People in London were leavint tier 3 not 4, they should all be home again same day then.
Off out but in easy terms mutations happen all the time... some beneficial (to the organism) and others not. In this context they mean (I think) one that survives.
But to the comment saying People in London were leavint tier 3 not 4, they should all be home again same day then.
There aren't restrictions on travel or staying away from home in any of the English tiers according to the published legislation, despite what the guidance says. If you live in London and fancy going for a walk in Northumberland, that's not against the law. If you want to break up your journey by staying in a hotel in York on your way back that's also not against the law.
It’s as safe as it can be, but Christmas shopping at supermarkets can be a poorly controlled scrum at the best of times. Going in the middle of the night if it’s a 24 hour store would be my strategy.
My daughter (16) works at a posh supermarket in a posh town 2 or 3 evenings a week based on shifts. She loves it, it's well managed with screens and masks etc, and the times I've been in seems pretty safe. They also do one in one out at busy times, to prevent these scrums, and doing her turn managing the queue is the bit she hates. There's a demographic; her words- middle to late middle aged, posh looking, men and women, that just outrageously queue jump, and when challenged "do I really need to queue, I'm only getting a couple of bits"
She's very friendly now with the security guard who waits inside and seems to have a higher hit rate at sending them to the back of the queue. And dealing with the "I want to speak to the manager" that sometimes follows.
Reminds me, I must pick up a joint of cured ham when I take her in tomorrow.
The point I'm trying to make (badly) is one I've discussed with my sister who is paranoid, despite not being at particular risk or her family either.
That 1/80 of the population that have it. Of those 1's, many will know because they're symptomatic and or been tested, or been t&t'ed and told to isolate while they wait for symptoms or not. So maybe 'in the wild' 1/250 have it, maybe 1/500. Who knows.
I get the infectiousness, and the need to be careful, and wash hands and social distance and minimise mixing. I don't in any way mean to downplay that. But playing numbers, the person you walk past on your daily walk or even yes, in ASDA, has maybe a 249/250 or 499/500 chance of being no risk, so she cannot be paralysed by that fear that the man who briefly walked past you has just signed your death warrant, or anyone elses. The fear is probably worse for her than the risk of cv19
My wifes just made alternative plans for the inlaws to come over on the 2nd for Christmas dinner no2 instead should the rules be relaxed on the 30th. Er yeah ok.
should the rules be relaxed on the 30th
Optimism can go too far.
What do they think over in Germany…?
Ab heute Nacht 0 Uhr bis zum 6. Januar wird zunächst der gesamte Flugverkehr zwischen Deutschland und Großbritannien untersagt!
What do they think over in Germany…?
Too late for europe, the inlaws left what is now tier 4 for their house in portugal a few days ago, I doubt they are the only entitled pricks out there!
Out of interest, if the EMA approve the Moderna vaccine on Jan 6th, does that mean the MHRA will 'mutual recognition' it? Would that be affected by any agreement or not on an EU trade deal or is it separate?
Is there actually any evidence for this new "strain"? Timing seems convenitent given the massive U-turn by gov...
our very bestist bigley in the world genetic scientists said so according to the government this morning.
Main difference in the announcements yesterday. BJ was still waffle and hope for common sense.
When the inevitable docudrama happens Captain Funtime and the Cornucopia of Codswallop might be a suitable tittle.
our very bestist bigley in the world genetic scientists said so according to the government this morning.
That's it. I'll trust the sciencists but not the politicians. The secretary of health going on national media and saying 'it's out of control' is extremely suspicious.
some outlets are reporting the decision was made earlier but announcement delayed to restrict time and avoid any parliamentary scrutiny.
The number of childish “it’s not fair” stories in the press today shows the right decision was made, even if late. People who fail to understand “just because you can doesn’t mean you should”. We had decided to abandon our plans earlier this week when viewing the graphs on ZOE. My son will be on his own, my wife will be unable to visit her dying mother again but if we manage to stay tier 2 the sacrifice will have been worth it.
Over 2000 admissions today and almost 36 000 cases thats not good is it!
Reading back on this thread, it seems that yes - it has been known about, possibly for a few months. Someone was mentioning their wife who works with Porton Down.
The timing of it now being "news" from the government may have suited them, but I would not think it is a hoax or anything
There’s nothing sinister about the timing. It’s just how long it takes until Boris gets round to reading the briefing papers.
Q: what have the medieval village of Eyam and modern London got in common?
A: Absolutely **** all.
Thread on the latest strain. Sobering reading.
https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1340487062903001090
Suggests some similarities with a South African strain which caused more problems in younger people, although it's way too early to be talking in these terms about our variant.
Can't see how a full lockdown including schools can be avoided now. Cases in areas affected by this variant kept growing throughout the latest non-lockdown in November.
36000 cases today, all countries stopping flights in and out, log jams at the ports due to Brexit - I'm starting to get slightly scared now. With the news about how difficult the vaccination plan is from the "Good new" thread, England/UK is staring to feel like an isolated 3rd world country, I fear for my kids/food over the next few months.
Wife has just said daughter's gymnastics squad are due to resume training on 4th January.
I am not convinced she will be attending, regardless of what the government, British Gymnastics or MrsMC says.
Sweepstake as to what date in January the full lockdown, including schools, will have to be announced? I'm thinking 15th
Grown adults really shouldn't be getting scared over that sort of thing.
Can’t see how a full lockdown including schools can be avoided now.
Quite right airvent. They should just shrug their shoulders and get on with life. It's just like a normal cold really if you think about it.
We have nothing to fear but fear itself.
After all, we have our feet on the neck of the beast etc.
Personally speaking, I'm off skiing.
For 8 weeks?
I thought airvent was referring to the catastrophising and hysteria around a new variant which has not yet been proven to be more (or possibly less) severe than ye olde virus.
Grown adults really shouldn’t be getting scared over that sort of thing.
Not lost any grown adults from your family, or your street, yet thanks to this virus? Lucky you. Don’t know any grown adults still not recovered properly months after getting it in the first wave? Lucky you. Taking precautions to protect people isn’t “getting scared”, any more than looking back down the road before opening the driver’s door of your car is “getting scared”… it’s taking the appropriate action to reduce the risk of harm to others.
I fear for my kids/food over the next few months.
The brightest sliver lining in all this is that our kids are the most safe people in society (well, your kids, not mine, as it happens, but most kids). That the virus results in disease in so few children, and that they fight it off when it does, is a blessing we should embrace. As for the food thing… less choice, more cost… but unless you are already struggling to feed your kids… you’ll still be feeding them fine next year.
I thought airvent was referring to the catastrophising and hysteria around a new variant which has not yet been proven to be more (or possibly less) severe than ye olde virus.
My worry is with the impact on supply chains this now adds to the initial & Brexit impact. Greater cases of course usually mean more deaths in ratio. Neither's good.
Lots of stones being thrown here as usual. Good job none of you live in glass houses...
If they did a proper lockdown for three weeks, no work and no shopping, the thing would be gone.
I agree.
EDIT: and proper quarantine and track and trace for people re-entering the country, to keep it gone, of course
Didn't see if this was posted, it's the scientific summary though I don't know what the underlying data are and based on past experience a little wary of taking their estimates at face value! But it certainly looks worrying.
@TiRed, even your favourite 0.4% IFR looks hard to reconcile with the data to me. Double it and we'd have no disagreement 🙂
Well if the good people on this thread have been telling the truth since my last post (I have no reason to believe otherwide), Hnacock who is currently on Sky news is bullshitting again. He only found out about the new strain last week apparently (whilst other sources say it's been tracked since September), he claimed to have acted quickly and decisively... .
but we’re not in February any more
We’re not in February. And it becomes a bigger task every day. At some point though, the bullet needs bitting down on… or we have 6 - 9 months of “not quite” lock down that just keeps NHS staff busy, and the economy in semi-stasis.
https://beta.microreact.org/project/kcdhiZuzrAzPb52qmMB9bj-cog-uk-2020-12-18-sars-cov-2-in-the-uk/
Interesting site. If you narrow the date range to December only, you can spot the new strain. (B.1.1.7)
Now look at Bristol, Manchester and Cumbria/Eden Valley. The new strain isn't just a SE problem, it is already the dominant strain in other places.
By the looks of it, a bit in Glasgow but none in Edinburgh, and it hasn't even hit the S Wales valleys yet, which is troubling.
It's just a numbers game really. If it is 70% more contagious, as has been reported from official sources, it needs to be 70% less likely to result in a hospital admission just to maintain the status quo in an NHS which is already creaking.
From the link thecaptain provided...
o Antigenic escape. The location of the mutations in the receptor binding domain of the spike glycoprotein raises the possibility that this variant is antigenically distinct from prior variants. Four probable reinfections have been identified amongst 915 subjects with this variant but further work is needed to compare this reinfection rate with comparable data sets.
•L
@kelvin - I'm not disagreeing with you. We now think that shutting the entire world down for a month in Feb would have stopped it.
20/20 hindsight doesn't solve the current issues we're facing.
France has stopped freight. Gridlock kent soon.
I think the actual line is that it's 'UP TO' 70% more contagious
As ever the upper range makes the headlines
And when in a few weeks time it looks like its Only 50% more contagious the covid deniers will use it to shout 'project fear' and resist further lockdowns etc
I thought airvent was referring to the catastrophising and hysteria around a new variant which has not yet been proven to be more (or possibly less) severe than ye olde virus.
Twas indeed. Its probably the fault of the media really, even 3 of the top 10 most read on the BBC today were scaremongering headlines which doesnt help.
1 in 100 people have covid in Medway Kent and still rising.
Note sure tier 4 will do anything to stop it.